Date

Jun 25, 1981

Description

This report provides an overview of the state of the Indian and the Pakistani nuclear programs, reviewing motivations, the technical situation, possible decisions to test, and the implications of a Pakistani test. According to INR, the Pakistanis are "probably capable of producing a workable device at this time," but the Kahuta plant was unlikely to produce enough fissile material for a test until 1983. While the Indians had stated publicly that they were preparing their test site that declaration may have been for political effect because they may have wanted the Pakistanis make the "first move." If Zia decided to do so, he would have to decide whether to risk worsening relations with Washington and a heightened regional nuclear arms race. Indira Gandhi would likely order retaliatory nuclear tests and quiet work on a weapons program. But if Pakistan went further and began an active nuclear weapons program, India was not likely to take risky preventive action because of the difficulty of taking out "Pakistan's well-defended nuclear facilities" and the risk of "antagonizing China." INR analysts opined that a nuclear South Asia would not be a stable region: "it is difficult to be optimistic that a stable, long-term mutual deterrence relationship would be established."

Source

Department of State FOIA release, copy courtesy of Jeffrey Richelson

Document published in following posting(s):

New Documents Spotlight Reagan-era Tensions over Pakistani Nuclear Program

Apr 27, 2012

"Probably Capable of Producing a Workable Device at this time". Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State, "India-Pakistani Views on a Nuclear Weapons Options and Potential Repercussions," Report 169-AR, 25 June 1981, confidential