NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS FUTURE ENVIRONMENT NET ASSESSMENT Autonomous Vehicles June 2017 This page is intentionally left blank NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS ii FUTURE ENVIRONMENT NET ASSESSMENT Autonomous Vehicles Executive Summary Autonomous vehicles collect and process data from their environments taking actions that can either help or replace drivers OCIA assesses that these vehicles will benefit society by improving road safety and reducing deaths injuries and costs associated with collisions Autonomous vehicles will also likely lead to a decrease in traffic congestion decreasing fuel consumption and emissions per mile and helping save drivers' money and time However as vehicles become increasingly connected and a part of the Internet of Things vulnerabilities and potential consequences are likely to increase unless cybersecurity is better integrated into vehicle design and development Legal and regulatory gaps exist on issues such as collision liability and safety standards if these gaps are not addressed cities and states might implement their own laws and regulations creating inefficiencies for automobile manufacturers shipping companies and drivers Moreover fully autonomous vehicles will likely have an adverse effect on the professional driver workforce when bus taxi and truck drivers are eventually replaced Purpose Many risks to critical infrastructure that are insignificant in 2017 will evolve and grow in 5 or more years The U S Department of Homeland Security DHS Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis OCIA conducts net assessments to help Federal State and local decision makers understand these emerging risks and take action to prepare for the future 1 Autonomous vehicles are an emerging risk that will affect critical infrastructure This study identifies and examines risks and issues likely to develop as autonomous vehicles become more common throughout the United States and is intended to help decision makers mitigate potential consequences before they become significant problems Background Autonomous vehicles fall into two classes fully autonomous or semiautonomous This report focuses on the consequences from the widespread adoption of fully and semiautonomous vehicles Further this report ties in aspects of emerging technologies associated with autonomous vehicles such as vehicle-to-vehicle V2V communication vehicle-toinfrastructure V21 communication and intelligent transportation systems ITS ITS gather and use real-time data to inform automated decisions about the function of traffic-related infrastructure and hardware such as traffic signals What Issues are Likely to Develop as Autonomous Vehicle Become Pervasive Safety Concerns and Regulations Development One of the strongest drivers for autonomous vehicle adoption is the vision of fundamental improvements in traffic safety and major reductions in deaths injuries and costs associated with motor vehicle collisions Although many benefits exist autonomous vehicles will not eliminate all collisions Some states have proposed or enacted legislation to improve safety including by requiring these vehicles to meet baseline technological standards If states develop regulations independently a variety of inconsistent laws regulations and standards might increase costs and uncertainties for vehicle manufacturers and operators likely impeding autonomous vehicle development and adoption Liability Across the Spectrum of Autonomy Liability and related laws might need updating as vehicle autonomy increases and the level of driver engagement decreases As of May 2017 laws regarding collision liability rest primarily with vehicle operators but it is uncertain who will be liable as operators cede more control to vehicles Liability is particularly complex for semiautonomous vehicles which differ in their capabilities and require a driver to 1 Net assessment is an analytic practice that began in the U S Department of Defense and emphasizes long-term strategic analysis It examines how multiple competing and complementary factors and narratives interact and how those interactions are likely to affect the future strategic environment NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS iii be engaged in some role Laws and regulations in place in some states or those under consideration require autonomous technologies to automatically cede full control to human operators in an emergency This raises concerns because liability is not always clear for a collision occurring during this transfer Autonomous vehicle development and adoption could slow depending on how these issues are settled Cyber Risk in Autonomous Vehicles Autonomous vehicles will have many positive benefits for society but they also introduce new cybersecurity risks Non-autonomous vehicles are already highly computerized but components such as tire pressure sensors and braking systems were designed to function independently of each other and other vehicles As components become more integrated and extend into external networks such as drivers' smartphones and other connected devices they will become more vulnerable and attractive to hackers Risks include potential attacks against multiple vehicles at once and an increasing attack surface as more vehicle components become a part of the Internet of Things A number of stakeholders are working to address autonomous vehicle vulnerabilities including through improved collaboration among auto manufacturers and the Federal Government Despite this trend cybersecurity researchers consumers and others expect more progress from regulators and automakers Workforce and Industry Displacement and New Market Creation Autonomous vehicles might have significant economic benefits among highly concentrated groups of businesses and industries whereas industry disruption and job losses will produce negative effects spread across a large group of interests Some industries including shipping transit and technology are likely to benefit from the growth of autonomous vehicles However these same benefits are likely to negatively affect the workforce many professional drivers will likely lose their jobs and by some estimates car purchases will drop by nearly two thirds by 2040 affecting auto manufacturers Uncertainty exists about what new industries will develop and what existing industries will expand For example shipping industries might need fewer drivers for their trucks but they will still need workers to load and unload trucks Upfront Investment and Downstream Cost Savings Autonomous vehicles will likely have many cost-saving benefits in the long term because of fewer collisions and reduced congestion Vehicle collisions and traffic delays are expensive and cost Americans billions of dollars and hours of wasted time annually Some stakeholders however might be discouraged from investing in autonomous vehicles and supporting technologies because of significant upfront costs State and local governments for example will be key investors in ITS Their investments will increase the cost savings and safety benefits of autonomous vehicles However they might have difficulty justifying spending significant taxpayer dollars on technology that will be beneficial only in the long term Changes in Mobility and Urbanization Autonomous vehicles that allow hands-free driving or provide wireless Internet might result in urban sprawl widespread movement to suburbs or both if commuters realize increased productivity Autonomous vehicles could also lead to an increase in productivity or new social engagement for populations that face barriers to driving including people with disabilities and older adults However because different segments of the population are likely to adopt autonomous vehicles at different rates regional demographic or other divides could occur Changes to Physical Infrastructure Systems By some estimates car ownership will drop by more than one-third by 2040 A significant reduction in the number of vehicles within urban areas could lead to a decline in parking lots--a change that would not only affect physical infrastructure and aesthetics of cities but also inspire economic growth Additionally the adoption of autonomous vehicles in urban areas could change the way planners integrate buildings into the surrounding environment Many of the possible benefits will not be fully realized until a threshold of sufficient smart technology infrastructure is implemented delaying the need for significant investment Early planning will be important for decision makers to be able to make smart and timely investment prioritization decisions NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS iv Contents Purpose 1 Scope 1 Background 1 What Issues are Likely to Develop as Autonomous Vehicle Become Pervasive 4 Safety Concerns and Regulations Development 4 Liability Across the Spectrum of Autonomy 5 Cyber Risk in Autonomous Vehicles 6 Workforce and Industry Displacement and New Market Creation 7 Upfront Investment and Downstream Cost Savings 8 Changes in Mobility and Urbanization 9 Changes to Physical Infrastructure Systems 10 Conclusion 11 Appendix A Narrative Analysis 12 Narrative Overview 12 Narrative Importance 15 Narrative Relationship Analysis 17 Sources From Narrative Analysis Process 18 DHS Point of Contact 21 Figures Figure 1--Narrative Importance Scores 16 Figure 2--Balance of Narratives 16 Tables Table 1--Designations and Definitions for NHTSA Levels of Vehicle Automation 2 Table 2--Designations and Definitions for SAE Levels of Vehicle Automation 3 Table 3--Narratives and Categories 12 Table 4--Narrative Descriptions 13 Table 5--Narrative Relationship Analysis 17 Table 6--Top 100 traditional media publication sources 18 Table 7--Top 100 Blog publication sources 19 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS v PURPOSE Many risks to critical infrastructure that are insignificant in 2017 will evolve and grow in 5 or more years The U S Department of Homeland Security DHS Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis OCIA conducts net assessments to help Federal State and local decision makers understand these emerging risks and take action to prepare for the future Although many autonomous vehicle technologies and prototypes exist they have not been fully implemented throughout the United States This study is identifies and examines risks and issues likely to develop as autonomous vehicles become more common throughout the United States and is intended to help decision makers mitigate potential consequences before they become significant problems SCOPE OCIA performed a net assessment that considers issues and interactions at play in the future encompassing various stages of autonomous vehicle implementation A net assessment is an analytic practice that began in the Department of Defense and emphasizes long-term strategic analysis It examines multiple competing and complementary factors and how those interactions are likely to affect the future strategic environment The net assessment is intended to provide decision makers a more complete understanding of the issues that are likely to arise as autonomous vehicles are adopted and implemented widely throughout the United States The net assessment was informed by OCIA research subject matter expert interviews and an analysis of the narratives strongly held beliefs surrounding autonomous vehicles Monitor 360 in support of OCIA used a combined qualitative and quantitative approach to review of thousands of online traditional media and social media to identify and understand the importance of each narrative see Appendix A for the analysis of the narratives Understanding the narratives can help decision makers better understand the forces driving autonomous vehicle development as well as the impediments to adoption BACKGROUND The U S Department of Homeland Security DHS Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis OCIA produces Infrastructure Risk Assessments to evaluate risks to critical infrastructure This report addresses how the adoption of autonomous vehicles presents opportunities and risks for critical infrastructure security and resilience This report primarily assesses the risks vulnerabilities and benefits of autonomous vehicles and analyzes intelligent transportation systems ITS issues that overlap with autonomous vehicles The goal is to help Federal State and local analysts and planners incorporate anticipatory thinking into critical infrastructure protection and resiliency efforts relating to autonomous vehicle implementation The Argonne National Laboratory DHS Transportation Security Administration U S Department of Transportation and the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center provided feedback on this report Autonomous vehicle technology enables automobiles to collect and process data from the environments in which they operate and execute safe and efficient commands Autonomous vehicles can assume decision-making and operational tasks enabling drivers to become passengers entirely disengaged from the demands of driving Autonomous vehicles can steer select optimal speeds avoid obstacles choose efficient routes park themselves and warn passengers of imminent danger The majority of autonomous vehicles in development use a deliberative architecture meaning they are capable of making decisions entirely based on onboard technology--though many are also capable of incorporating external inputs Autonomous vehicles use a variety of sensors to gather the data necessary for operation including the following Light detection and ranging LIDAR technology uses light pulses to identify lane and road markings and boundaries Global positioning system GPS devices gather specific geographic data to inform route selection and other location-based decision-making often in combination with onboard tachometers altimeters and gyroscopes NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 1 Video cameras track other vehicles and pedestrians while capturing information on traffic lights and road signs Radar sensors track other objects including vehicles and pedestrians Ultrasonic sensors support parking by capturing data on objects in proximity to autonomous vehicles including people curbs and vehicles A central onboard computer processes inputs from the sensors and issues commands to a vehicle's steering acceleration braking and signaling systems 2 The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA delineates five different levels of vehicle automation table 1 The taxonomy used by the Society of Automotive Engineers SAE International to describe autonomous vehicles varies slightly from that of NHTSA SAE International uses six levels to distinguish the degree of automation in a vehicle table 2 however fully autonomous driverless vehicles occupy the highest level of automation in both systems 3 Federal and State regulators typically refer to the NHTSA automation levels whereas vehicle manufacturers refer to the SAE International automation levels 4 For this report OCIA uses the NHTSA automation levels TABLE 1--DESIGNATIONS AND DEFINITIONS FOR NHTSA LEVELS OF VEHICLE AUTOMATION5 DESIGNATION NAME DEFINITION Level 0 No automation The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls--brake steering throttle and motive power--at all times Level 1 Function-specific automation One or more specific control functions Examples include electronic stability control or precharged brakes where the vehicle automatically assists with braking to enable the driver to regain control of the vehicle or stop faster than possible by acting alone Level 2 Combined function automation Automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions An example of combined functions enabling a Level 2 system is adaptive cruise control in combination with lane centering Limited self-driving automation Vehicles enable the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions and in those conditions to rely heavily on the vehicle to monitor for changes in those conditions requiring transition back to driver control The driver is expected to be available for occasional control but with sufficiently comfortable transition time The Google car is an example of limited self-driving automation Full self-driving automation The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles Level 3 Level 4 2 Eddy John 2014 Road Diets and Car Clouds Shaping the Driverless City http doggerel arup com road-diets-and-car-clouds-shaping-thedriverless-city Accessed April 8 2016 3 Glancy Dorothy Peterson Robert and Graham Kyle 2015 A Look at the Legal Environment for Driverless Vehicles NCHRP Legal Research Digest Pre-publication Draft http orfe princeton edu alaink SmartDrivingCars PDFs LegalNCHRP69Pre pdf Accessed August 2 2016 4 Ibid 5 U S Department of Transportation 2013 U S Department of Transportation Releases Policy on Automated Vehicle Development https www transportation gov briefing-room us-department-transportation-releases-policy-automated-vehicle-development Accessed June 13 2017 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 2 TABLE 2--DESIGNATIONS AND DEFINITIONS FOR SAE LEVELS OF VEHICLE AUTOMATION6 DESIGNATION NAME DEFINITION No automation the full-time performance by the human driver of all aspects of the dynamic driving task 7 even when enhanced by warning or intervention systems Driver assistance the driving mode8-specific execution by a driver assistance system of either steering or acceleration deceleration using information about the driving environment and with the expectation that the human driver perform all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task Level 2 Partial automation the driving mode-specific execution by one or more driver assistance system of both steering and acceleration deceleration using information about the driving environment and with the expectation that the human driver perform all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task Level 3 Conditional automation the driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task with the expectation that the human driver will respond appropriately to a request to intervene 9 Level 4 High automation the driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task even if a human driver does not respond appropriately to a quest to intervene 10 Level 5 Full automation the full-time performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver Level 0 Level 1 ITS gather and use real-time data to inform automated decisions regarding the function of traffic-related infrastructure ITS typically include four main elements sensors that gather information on traffic conditions automated or manually operated controllers that make changes to traffic control devices e g traffic lights a central computer to analyze data and suggest system adjustments and a communications system to link the various components ITS will be important for helping cities realize all the potential benefits of autonomous vehicles For example an ITS-enabled intersection could have a video camera or an in-ground induction loop sensor to detect the presence of vehicles These sensors would transmit data to a controller which could then optimize the function of a traffic signal for traffic conditions These benefits would further increase as vehicle-to-vehicle V2V and vehicle-toinfrastructure V2I communication systems are integrated into ITS 11 For example a traffic signal could suggest a speed that would allow an approaching autonomous vehicle to arrive at the light as it changes to green reducing stop and start times and overall congestion 6 Society of Automotive Engineers International Automated Driving Levels of Driving Automation are Defined in New SAE International Standard J3016 http www sae org misc pdfs automated_driving pdf Accessed November 30 2016 7 A dynamic driving task includes the operational steering braking accelerating monitoring the vehicle and roadway and tactical responding to events determining when to change lanes turn use signals etc aspects of the driving task but not the strategic determining destinations and waypoints aspect of the driving task Ibid 8 Driving mode is a type of driving scenario with characteristic dynamic driving task requirements e g expressway merging high speed cruising low speed traffic jam closed-campus operations etc Ibid 9 Request to intervene is notification by the automated driving system to a human driver that s he should promptly begin or resume performance of the dynamic driving task Society of Automotive Engineers International Automated Driving Levels of Driving Automation are Defined in New SAE International Standard J3016 http www sae org misc pdfs automated_driving pdf Accessed November 30 2016 10 Driving mode is a type of driving scenario with characteristic dynamic driving task requirements e g expressway merging high speed cruising low speed traffic jam closed-campus operations etc Society of Automotive Engineers International Automated Driving Levels of Driving Automation are Defined in New SAE International Standard J3016 http www sae org misc pdfs automated_driving pdf Accessed November 30 2016 11 V2V technology uses dedicated short-range communications--similar to Wi-Fi with a range of about 3 000 feet--to allow vehicles to talk to one another Vehicles and trucks on a V2V communication network can send and receive data about their location speed and distance relative to other connected cars V2I technology allows vehicles to communicate with physical infrastructure such as traffic signals NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 3 Optimism about autonomous vehicles and ITS is widespread among the government private sector and others for the safety productivity mobility environmental and other benefits they will bring However significant concerns exist regarding costs cybersecurity economic effects and cultural barriers among others What Issues are Likely to Develop as Autonomous Vehicle Become Pervasive As part of the net assessment OCIA examined seven issues that are likely to develop as autonomous vehicles become pervasive in the United States Autonomous vehicles and safety Liability across the spectrum of autonomy Cyber vulnerabilities in autonomous and semiautonomous vehicles Workforce and industry displacement and new market creation Upfront investment and downstream cost savings Changes in mobility and urbanization Changes to physical infrastructure systems Safety Concerns and Regulations Development One of the strongest drivers for adopting autonomous vehicles is the vision of fundamental improvements in traffic safety and major reductions in deaths injuries and costs associated with motor vehicle crashes 12 By some estimates driver error contributes to more than 90 percent of vehicle collisions which resulted in more than 33 000 deaths in the United States in 2014 13 14 More than 29 000 American lives could therefore be saved each year if fully autonomous vehicles eliminate human error as a cause of vehicle collisions Semiautonomous vehicles will also likely reduce the frequency of collisions through collision detection technologies automatic braking and other tools An analysis by the NHTSA found that the crash rate for semi-autonomous Tesla vehicles installed with Autopilot technology dropped by nearly 40 percent 15 Reducing the number of collisions would also have many economic benefits According to a 2011 study by the American Automobile Association traffic collisions cost $299 5 billion annually 16 There would also be longer term cost savings from collision avoidance In 2014 more than 2 3 million drivers and passengers were treated in U S emergency rooms because of motor vehicle collisions Reducing the number of collisions would decrease immediate healthcare spending both immediately following a collision and long-term spending resulting from permanent or lingering injuries 17 Although autonomous vehicles are expected to have an overall positive effect for vehicle safety they will not eliminate all collisions 18 Many states are working to enact rules that enhance safety and limit the risk of technology-caused collisions 12 Victoria Transport Policy Institute Litman Todd 2016 Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions http www vtpi org avip pdf p 4 Accessed December 22 2016 13 Ibid 14 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Accidents or Unintentional Injuries https www cdc gov nchs fastats accidental-injury htm Accessed May 22 2017 15 Geuss Megan 2017 After fatal Tesla crash probe US regulators conclude there's no need for recall Ars Technica https arstechnica com cars 2017 01 after-fatal-tesla-crash-probe-us-regulators-conclude-theres-no-need-for-recall Accessed March 7 2017 16 Cambridge Systematics 2011 Crashes vs Congestion - What's the Cost to Society American Automobile Association http newsroom aaa com wp-content uploads 2011 11 2011_AAA_CrashvCongUpd pdf p ES-2 Accessed December 23 2016 17 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2016 Injury Prevention Control Motor Vehicle Safety https www cdc gov Motorvehiclesafety seatbelts facts html Accessed December 19 2016 18 Valdes-Dapena Peter January 19 2017 Tesla Autopilot not defective in fatal crash CNN http money cnn com 2017 01 19 technology tesla-investigation-closed index html Accessed March 7 2017 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 4 As of 2016 at least 33 states and Washington D C have proposed or enacted legislation related to autonomous vehicles some of which requires automakers to comply with a range of specific design requirements 19 Some lawmakers and regulators are developing safety requirements in an attempt to ensure that autonomous vehicles meet baseline technological standards 20 21 Some state transportation departments argue that a priority is to adopt laws to ensure drivers have a proper understanding of autonomous vehicles and in some cases laws that define safe autonomous vehicle technological function Examples of the former include modifications to driver training and education and revised insurance requirements If states develop regulations independently it is possible that a variety of inconsistent laws regulations and standards will create uncertainties for vehicle manufacturers and drivers This would potentially impede autonomous vehicle development and adoption 22 Some groups therefore argue for a national approach that standardizes minimum safety requirements across the United States although concern exists that this would reduce flexibility which OCIA assesses could increase costs for automakers 23 The NHTSA is recommending a framework for states to help take a common approach to autonomous vehicle operator-licensing programs and on-road testing 24 This approach includes developing a model state policy on automated vehicles as a path to a national policy and suggests that a focus on policy homogeneity must increase 25 26 Liability Across the Spectrum of Autonomy Liability and related laws might need updating as vehicle autonomy increases and the level of driver engagement in the operation of the vehicle decreases As of 2017 laws related to collision liability rest primarily with the operator of a vehicle but as operators cede more control to vehicles liability is uncertain Some automakers--including Volvo and Mercedes-Benz--anticipate liability shifts and have pledged to accept more responsibility for collisions that occur while using their technologies However many other automakers have yet to make similar pledges 27 28 Florida's proposed legislation includes requirements that operators obtain an instrument of insurance surety bond or self-insurance and other states have included provisions that ensure drivers have some degree of responsibility for an autonomous vehicle's safe operation 29 Liability is particularly complex for semiautonomous vehicles which differ in their level of autonomy capabilities and require a driver to be engaged in some role Some related laws and regulations or those under consideration require autonomous technologies to cede full control of the vehicle to a human operator in an emergency Jim McBride autonomous vehicles expert at Ford notes that this can pose difficulties and is why he is focused on getting Ford straight to Level 4 full-automation 19 National Conference of State Legislators 2016 Autonomous - Self-Driving Vehicles Legislation http www ncsl org research transportation autonomous-vehicles-legislation aspx Accessed February 23 2016 20 Ibid 21 General Assembly of North Carolina Session 2015 2015 Senate Bill 600 - A Bill to be Entitled an Act to Direct the Division of Motor Vehicles to Study How to Implement Autonomous Vehicle Technology on the Roads and Highways of this State as Recommended by the Department of Transportation http www ncga state nc us Sessions 2015 Bills Senate HTML S600v2 html Accessed December 23 2016 22 Monitor 360 interview with expert in subject matter 2016 23 Golson Jordan 2015 California wants to keep autonomous cars from being autonomous https www theverge com 2015 12 16 10325672 california-dmv-regulations-autonomous-car Accessed April 10 2016 24 U S Department of Transportation 2016 Secretary Foxx Unveils President Obama's FY17 Budget Proposal of Nearly $4 Billion for Automated Vehicles and Announces DOT Initiatives to Accelerate Vehicle Safety Innovations https www transportation gov briefingroom secretary-foxx-unveils-president-obama%E2%80%99s-fy17-budget-proposal-nearly-4-billion Accessed May 5 2017 25 Ibid 26 U S Department of Transportation 2013 U S Department of Transportation Releases Policy on Automated Vehicle Development https www transportation gov briefing-room us-department-transportation-releases-policy-automated-vehicle-development Accessed May 13 2016 27 Korosec Kirsten 2015 Volvo CEO We Will Accept All Liability When Our Cars are in Autonomous Mode http fortune com 2015 10 07 volvo-liability-self-driving-cars Accessed April 8 2016 28 Bigelow Peter 2015 Can't Accept Autonomous Liability Get Out of the Game Says Volvo http www autoblog com 2015 10 09 volvoaccept-autonomous-car-liability Accessed April 8 2016 29 National Conference of State Legislators 2016 Autonomous - Self-Driving Vehicles Legislation http www ncsl org research transportation autonomous-vehicles-legislation aspx Accessed February 23 2016 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 5 driverless we're not going to ask the driver to instantaneously intervene--that's not a fair proposition 30 Depending on how laws and regulations are written even fully autonomous vehicles could be required to cede vehicle control to a human driver potentially increasing the risk of a collision If a collision occurs as an autonomous vehicle is transferring control to a human operator it could fall into a liability grey area 31 32 Autonomous vehicle development and adoption could slow depending on how these issues are settled especially when a collision occurs Auto manufacturers may slow the development of autonomous vehicles if they are to be liable but drivers could become more wary of autonomous vehicles if they are liable Cyber Risk in Autonomous Vehicles Newer vehicles are no longer solely physical assets but are now part of the Internet of Things 33 This has many benefits but also introduces new cyber risks Vehicles are highly computerized with anti-lock brake systems tire pressure sensors rear-view cameras and other technologies but until recently they functioned independently of other networks and other vehicles In 2017 automobile manufacturers often advertise how their vehicles can connect to Bluetooth enabled devices the Internet or a central computer that monitors multiple systems within a vehicle Apple and Google have developed apps for integrating their iOS and Android mobile operating systems into more than 100 models of automobiles 34 35 As these and other new technologies become more integrated within vehicles the risks of cyber attacks will increase Cybersecurity researchers Charlie Miller and Chris Valesek demonstrated in 2015 that they could hack a 2014 Jeep Cherokee and control the vehicle's transmission and brakes 36 Several days after this demonstration Chrysler announced a 1 4 million vehicle recall 37 Additionally as vehicles integrate extended networks and more personal information from drivers' smartphones and other connected devices they could become more attractive to cyber criminals seeking to steal personal information A range of stakeholders are working to address autonomous vehicle vulnerabilities including improved collaboration among auto manufacturers and the Federal Government According to a U S Department of Transportation DOT official cybersecurity is a difficult area from a regulatory standpoint because it moves so quickly Having guiding principles and best practices developed with the industry that everyone buys into will lead to action more quickly than through the regulatory process 38 In response to the growing cyber risk automakers are collaborating with regulators cybersecurity researchers and the DOT to address the known and emerging cybersecurity issues In January 2016 General Motors implemented a vulnerability disclosure program which encourages security researchers to disclose the results of their hacking research to General Motors 39 Also in 2016 the DOT and 18 automakers pledged to develop appropriate means for engaging with cybersecurity researchers as an additional tool for cyber threat identification 30 Reese Hope Autonomous Driving Levels 0 to 5 Understanding the Differences http www techrepublic com article autonomous-drivinglevels-0-to-5-understanding-the-differences Accessed December 23 2016 31 Yeomans Gillian 2014 Autonomous Vehicles - Handing Over Control Opportunities and Risks for Insurance Lloyd's http www lloyds com media Lloyds Reports Emerging%20Risk%20Reports Autonomous%20Vehicles%20FINAL pdf p 15 Accessed December 23 2016 32 Monitor 360 interview with subject matter expert 2016 33 The Internet of Things is the connection of systems and devices with primarily physical purposes e g sensing heating and cooling lighting motor actuation transportation to information networks to include the Internet U S Department of Homeland Security 2016 Strategic Principles for Security the Internet of Things U S Department of Homeland Security https www dhs gov sites default files publications Strategic_Principles_for_Securing_the_Internet_of_Things-2016-1115-FINAL_v2-dg11 pdf p 2 Accessed March 8 2017 34 Yeomans Gillian 2014 Autonomous Vehicles - Handing Over Control Opportunities and Risks for Insurance Lloyd's http www lloyds com media Lloyds Reports Emerging%20Risk%20Reports Autonomous%20Vehicles%20FINAL pdf p 18 Accessed December 23 2016 35 Monitor 360 interview with expert in subject matter 36 Greenberg Andy 2016 Feds Prod Automakers to Play Nice with Hackers http www wired com 2016 01 feds-prod-automakers-toplay-nice-with-hackers Accessed April 8 2016 37 Ibid 38 Ibid 39 Ibid NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 6 and remedy 40 A DOT representative remarked on the pledge stating that We think it's a fairly significant change in tone There have been mixed approaches in the industry as to how to interact with independent researchers who find security exploits 41 The NHTSA and the broader DOT have expressed a continued commitment to work with the auto industry to publish a specific set of best practices on cybersecurity 42 Despite the trend toward collaboration cybersecurity researchers and consumers expect more progress from regulators and automakers There are concerns that government and automakers are moving too slowly to address cybersecurity issues A January 2016 WIRED article noted that when researchers from the University of California at San Diego and the University of Washington revealed a hacking technique that would allow dangerous levels of control over OnStar-enabled General Motors vehicles NHTSA allowed General Motors to take nearly 5 years to fully patch its flaws 43 One of the cybersecurity researchers who hacked the Jeep Cherokee expressed a view on public-private sector cybersecurity progress stating that although I hope there will be more interaction between the security community and manufacturers and OEMs Original Equipment Manufacturers I'll believe it when I see it indicating the researcher might believe that automakers are not serious about cybersecurity 44 Workforce and Industry Displacement and New Market Creation Autonomous vehicles might have significant economic benefits among highly concentrated groups of businesses and industries whereas a large but disparate group of interests could be negatively affected through industry disruption and job losses Some industries including shipping transit and technology companies are likely to benefit from the growth of autonomous vehicles In 2015 a study by the Boston Consulting Group predicted that autonomous vehicles could create a $42 billion market by 2025 45 Shipping companies will move toward autonomous vehicles to reduce the costs of labor 46 The use of specialized automated trucks in Australia and Chile have encouraged autonomous trucking tests in the United States by Freightliner-Daimler Volvo and Peterbilt 47 Autonomous freight trains and unstaffed cargo vessels might also be on global sea lanes by 2020 48 New pathways for autonomous vehicle technology might include crowdsourced autonomous taxi fleets like Uber and Lyft and autonomous buses or shuttles 49 50 According to a January 2016 report from the Economist Once these organizations are able to dispense with drivers for their vehicles the taxi car-club and car-sharing businesses will in effect merge into one big convenient and affordable alternative to owning a car suggesting that one consolidated industry might emerge where there are currently several likely putting companies out of business and some people out of work 51 Autonomous vehicles are highly likely to negatively affect some industries and workforces Many professional drivers--such as commercial truckers and shippers public transport operators and taxi drivers--will likely lose their jobs According to the U S Bureau of Labor Statistics close to 4 million people drive for a living not including 40 Greenberg Andy 2016 Feds Prod Automakers to Play Nice with Hackers http www wired com 2016 01 feds-prod-automakers-toplay-nice-with-hackers Accessed April 8 2016 41 Ibid 42 Ibid 43 Ibid 44 Ibid 45 Green Jeff Driverless-Car Global Market Seen Reaching $42 Billion by 2025 http www bloomberg com news articles 2015-0108 driverless-car-global-market-seen-reaching-42-billion-by-2025 Accessed April 8 2016 46 Kuehn Jason and Reiner Juergen 2015 Self-Driving Trucks Could Rewrite the Rules for Transporting Freight http www forbes com sites oliverwyman 2015 12 08 self-driving-trucks-could-rewrite-the-rules-for-transporting-freight #20234cc168e4 Accessed April 8 2016 47 Ibid 48 Tovey Alan Crewless 'Drone Ships' will be Sailing the Seas by 2020 http www telegraph co uk business 2016 04 09 crewless-drone-shipswill-be-sailing-the-seas-by-2020 Accessed December 27 2016 49 Shahani Aarti 2016 Lyft GM Team Up to Create Fleet of Driverless Cars http www npr org sections thetwoway 2016 01 04 461922098 lyft-gm-teaming-up-to-create-fleet-of-driverless-cars Accessed December 22 2016 50 Hars Alexander Baidu Expects Autonomous Buses to Become First Wave of Self-Driving Vehicles http www driverlessfuture com m 201601 Accessed April 8 2016 51 The Economist 2016 The Driverless Car-Sharing Road Ahead http www economist com news business 21685459-carmakersincreasingly-fret-their-industry-brink-huge-disruption Accessed December 23 2016 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 7 Uber and Lyft 52 These drivers who earn an average of $37 280 annually could be displaced by the introduction of autonomous vehicles 53 Automakers and their employees could also be adversely affected especially if private vehicle ownership and annual vehicle purchases decrease Barclays Bank predicts that U S household car ownership will drop from 2 1 to 1 2 vehicles by 2040 and annual sales of personal vehicles will decline from 11 million to 3 8 million 54 This expected decline is in part based on analysis that millennials drive less than baby boomers but competing analysis reported by Kelley Blue Book suggests that 92 percent of millennials own or are planning to own a car 55 56 Uncertainty also exists for what new industries will develop and what existing industries will expand Shipping companies might not need drivers for their trucks but they will still need workers to load and unload trucks This is similar to the online shipping revolution which reduced employment in brick and mortar shops but increased the number of jobs on the backend either in customer service or in warehouses Automated shipping could reduce the number of jobs for drivers but could increase the number of jobs in other related fields Upfront Investment and Downstream Cost Savings Autonomous vehicles will likely have many long-term cost-saving benefits because of fewer collisions and reduced congestion A 2015 report by the NHTSA quantified the economic effect of vehicle collisions annually at $242 billion the equivalent of nearly $784 for each of the 308 7 million people living in the United States and 1 6 percent of the $14 96 trillion real U S Gross Domestic Product for 2010 57 The report also concluded that public revenue pays for 7 percent of vehicle collision costs federal entities pay 4 percent and states and localities provide the remaining 3 percent 58 A Brookings Institution study from 2015 estimates that based on these numbers the adoption of autonomous vehicles and the decline in crashes would save taxpayers an estimated $10 billion each year 59 Additionally in 2014 vehicles were delayed by 6 9 billion hours wasting approximately 3 1 billion gallons of fuel and this number is projected to rise to 8 3 billion by 2020 60 Studies by the Texas A M Transportation Institute and the American Society of Civil Engineers estimate that congestion in the United States costs more than $140 billion per year because of lost productivity extra fuel used and additional vehicle maintenance 61 62 A 2013 study by McKinsey and Company estimates savings between $200 billion and $1 9 trillion per year by 2025 as a result of autonomous and semiautonomous vehicle adoption whereas Morgan Stanley estimates economic savings of $1 3 trillion per year adoption 63 64 In 2015 the Brookings Institution concluded that autonomous 52 Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017 May 2016 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates United States http www bls gov oes current oes_nat htm#53-0000 Accessed May 22 2017 53 Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017 May 2016 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates United States http www bls gov oes current oes_nat htm#53-0000 Accessed May 22 2017 54 The Economist 2016 The Driverless Car-Sharing Road Ahead http www economist com news business 21685459-carmakersincreasingly-fret-their-industry-brink-huge-disruption Accessed December 23 2016 55 Sivak Michael Schoettle Brandon 2016 Recent Decreases in the Proportion of Persons with a Driver's License across All Age Groups http www umich edu umtriswt PDF UMTRI-2016-4_Abstract_English pdf Accessed December 22 2016 56 DeLorenzo Matt 2016 Shocker Gen Z Wants Cars https www kbb com car-news all-the-latest this-week-in-car-buying-shocker-genz-wants-cars 2100000447 Accessed December 27 2016 57 U S Department of Transportation 2015 The Economic and Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes 2010 Revised National Highway Traffic Safety Administration https crashstats nhtsa dot gov Api Public ViewPublication 812013 p 5 Accessed December 27 2016 58 Ibid 59 Desouza Kena Fedorschak Kevin 2015 Autonomous Vehicles Will Have Tremendous Impacts on Government Revenue http www brookings edu blogs techtank posts 2015 07 07-autonomous-vehicle-revenue Accessed April 8 2016 60 Texas A M Transportation Institute and INRIX 2015 2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard http d2dtl5nnlpfr0r cloudfront net tti tamu edu documents mobility-scorecard-2015 pdf Accessed March 16 2017 61 Ibid 62 The Economic Development Research Group Inc 2016 Failure to Act Closing the Infrastructure Investment Gap for America's Economic Future American Society of Civil Engineers 63 Morgan Stanley Research Global 2013 Self-Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm Morgan Stanley http orfe princeton edu alaink SmartDrivingCars PDFs Nov2013MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF%BC%9ASELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM pdf p 7 Accessed April 8 2016 64 Manyika James et al 2013 Disruptive Technologies Advances That Will Transform Life Business and the Global Economy McKinsey Global Institute http www mckinsey com business-functions digital-mckinsey our-insights disruptive-technologies p 78 Accessed December 27 2016 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 8 vehicles will lead to cost savings for governments even if the public sector does not innovate but OCIA assesses these cost savings will be less significant or slower to realize without government support 65 Some stakeholders however might be discouraged from investing in autonomous vehicles and their supporting technologies because of significant upfront costs or lack of public support State and local governments will be key investors in ITS and when joined with autonomous vehicle technologies cost savings and safety benefits will increase However they might have difficulty justifying spending significant taxpayer dollars especially if existing infrastructure is in good condition This is especially true given that economic benefits will most likely be distributed unevenly with a relatively small number of people and companies receiving the majority of the benefits Governments will likely realize indirect benefits over a longer period while the private sector likely will realize the returns on investments more quickly 66 As a result some State and local governments might choose to wait until infrastructure is in poor condition and needs replacement before installing ITS infrastructure Government investment delays will also prolong the potential benefits Widespread autonomous vehicle adoption will also potentially reduce State and local government revenues by reducing the number of traffic violations parking fees and taxes on fuel taxi drivers and other revenue-generating elements of the driver and privately owned vehicle-based system In 2014 Los Angeles city generated approximately $161 million from parking violations 67 In 2009 impounds in California brought in more than $40 million in revenue for local governments and towing companies 68 Changes in Mobility and Urbanization Fully autonomous vehicles that allow commuters to take their hands off the wheel and networkconnected vehicles in which commuters can use wireless Internet during travel could result in urban sprawl widespread movement to suburbs or both People may be willing to travel farther if autonomous vehicles allow them to work sleep or accomplish other tasks during their commute which could reverse current urbanization trends Urbanization is motivated in part by the desire to be closer to work According to a 2015 report by the National Association of Realtors approximately 20 percent of respondents purchased a home because it was convenient to their job 69 Urbanization has many benefits including improved access to education and health services economic efficiencies and job growth However there are likely to be negative consequences if populations extend beyond traditional urban boundaries 70 To meet demands State and local governments might need to increase public expenditures on infrastructure such as sewer collection systems water distribution lines and power lines 71 Autonomous vehicles could lead to more productivity or new social engagement for populations that face barriers to driving including people with disabilities and older adults According to a 2015 survey by the Kessler Foundation more than 25 percent of those with disabilities report a lack of transportation 72 As of 2017 there are approximately 50 million U S residents over the age of 65 and this 65 Desouza Kena Fedorschak Kevin 2015 Autonomous Vehicles Will Have Tremendous Impacts on Government Revenue http www brookings edu blogs techtank posts 2015 07 07-autonomous-vehicle-revenue Accessed April 8 2016 66 Monitor 360 interview with subject matter expert 2016 67 Alpert Reyes Emily 2014 Group wants to revamp how L A collects parking ticket revenue Los Angeles Times http www latimes com local cityhall la-me-parking-fine-cap-20140613-story html Accessed March 27 2017 68 PBS News Hour 2011 California to Stop Towing Impounding Vehicles of Unlicensed Drivers http www pbs org newshour rundown california-impounding-practices-change-for-unlicensed-drivers Accessed March 27 2017 69 Riggs Amanda 2016 How Commuting Costs Factor into Home Buying http economistsoutlook blogs realtor org 2016 02 02 howcommuting-costs-factor-into-home-buying Accessed April 8 2016 70 Wirth Anthony Rasmussen Marc 2015 US Urbanization Trends Investment Implications for Commercial Real Estate CBRE Global Investors www cbreglobalinvestors com research publications documents special%20reports us%20urbanization%20trends_JAN%202015 pdf Accessed December 22 2016 71 Siedentop Stefan Fina Stefan Urban Sprawl Beyond Growth the Effect of Demographic Change on Infrastructure Costs Cairn http www cairn info article php ID_ARTICLE FLUX_079_0090 Accessed April 12 2016 72 Kessler Foundation 2015 2015 National Employment Disability Survey Executive Summary http kesslerfoundation org sites default files filepicker 5 KFSurvey2015_ExecutiveSummary pdf p 2 Accessed May 22 2017 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 9 number is predicted to grow to almost 90 million by 2050 73 Autonomous vehicles will help keep this population mobile as age and physical conditions potentially create driving barriers 74 Different segments of the population will possibly adopt autonomous vehicles at different rates potentially resulting in regional demographic or other divides Although autonomous vehicle adoption is likely in urban and suburban communities a similar adoption of the technology in rural areas is less uncertain 75 McKinsey and Company's 2016 analysis observes that cities provide sufficient scale for new mobility business models while by contrast in rural areas where low density creates a barrier to scale private car usage will remain the preferred means of transport 76 The culture of private vehicle ownership and driving might also be stronger in rural populations 77 If autonomous vehicle implementation is limited to urban and suburban areas which become dependent on ITS rural regions that lack the appropriate infrastructure could face barriers to societal and economic integration further deepening regional divides Changes to Physical Infrastructure Systems A significant reduction in the number of vehicles within urban areas could lead to a decline in parking lots--a change that would not only affect physical infrastructure and aesthetics of cities but could also inspire economic growth In some U S cities parking garages and lots occupy one-third of city space 78 Estimates show that the total surface area of parking lots in the United States comprises a combined area larger than Puerto Rico a significant amount of underused real estate 79 Economic benefits could accrue if autonomous vehicles decrease the amount of space needed for parking lots or allow parking lots to be moved farther from population centers Boston's Seaport District for example once a 1 000 acre decrepit no man's land of parking lots has transformed into the city's waterfront Innovation District attracting new biotechnology pharmaceutical and energy companies 80 Parking lots could also be repurposed for apartments and condominiums something that would be especially useful for cities where housing is limited because of space limitations Adoption of autonomous vehicles in urban areas could change the ways that buildings will need or have the opportunity to integrate with their surrounding environment and vice versa Access features ubiquitous in many buildings could become outdated affecting the design and operation of buildings and other facilities in the Healthcare and Public Health Emergency Services Commercial Facilities and other infrastructure sectors The constant flow of data among vehicles and infrastructure will likely be significant and might require communications infrastructure in urban areas to be updated to handle the additional data 81 The benefits of autonomous vehicles can be optimized only if the flow of data is continuous 82 Many of the possible positive implications will not provide significant benefit until a threshold of sufficient smart technology infrastructure is implemented delaying the need for significant investment Early planning will be 73 U S Census Bureau 2017 An Aging Nation https www census gov library visualizations 2017 comm cb17-ff08_older_americans html Accessed May 22 2017 74 Lawrence Erik 2014 When Should Elderly People Stop Driving http www usatoday com story news nation 2014 01 20 when-shouldelderly-people-stop-driving 4659103 Accessed April 8 2016 75 McKinsey Company 2016 Automotive Revolution - Perspective Towards 2030 Advanced Industries https www mckinsey de files automotive_revolution_perspective_towards_2030 pdf pp 9 and 10 Accessed December 27 2016 76 Ibid 77 Victoria Transport Policy Institute Litman Todd 2016 Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions http www vtpi org avip pdf p 17 Accessed December 22 2016 78 Dizikes Peter 2012 Lots of trouble In a new book an MIT urban planner rethinks the mundane ubiquitous parking lot http news mit edu 2012 parking-lot-redesign-0313 Accessed April 8 2016 79 Ibid 80 Baker Mathew Vogel Chris and Doyle Patrick 2012 The Rise of the Seaport http www bostonmagazine com 2012 07 rise-seaportdistrict-boston Accessed April 8 2016 81 Monitor 360 interview with subject matter expert 2016 82 Ibid NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 10 important for decision makers to make smart and timely investment prioritization decisions A compounding effect could occur in which incremental infrastructure development could lead to more rapid development CONCLUSION Although autonomous vehicles will offer many benefits to society many concerns exist with the technology For example already vehicles are vulnerable to cyber attacks Because of reliance on an increasing number of connected systems autonomous vehicle vulnerabilities and consequences are likely to increase until cybersecurity becomes better integrated into vehicle design and development Also a number of legal and regulatory gaps exist involving accident liability and safety standards These gaps could increase the production cost of autonomous vehicles and slow the adoption rate thus dampening the benefits that autonomous vehicle technologies offer Additionally concerns exist that fully autonomous vehicles will have a major effect on the economy potentially costing millions of bus taxi and truck drivers their jobs Autonomous vehicles could be extremely beneficial for society but risky Addressing these risks quickly and effectively will help maximize the benefits offered by vehicle automation NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 11 APPENDIX A NARRATIVE ANALYSIS As part of this net assessment Monitor 360 in support of OCIA conducted a narrative analysis where thousands of online traditional media and social media sources were collected and analyzed using a combined qualitative and quantitative approach to identify and understand the narratives strongly held beliefs and assumptions surrounding a topic Narratives are useful to understand because while beliefs can be irrationally optimistic or pessimistic they still drive decisions For example men and women who are afraid of flying despite it being a statistically safer alternative to other modes of transportation either spend more money and lose time when travelling or do not travel at all If enough people hold a belief it can drive government and business decision makers to sub-optimal choices Decision makers who understand the narratives surrounding autonomous vehicles will better understand the forces driving autonomous vehicle development as well as the impediments to adoption The narrative analysis for autonomous vehicles includes three quantitative or qualitative metrics Narrative Overview the key narratives regarding a topic Narrative Importance the relative importance of each narrative and Narrative Relationship the relative importance of each narrative to different stakeholders Narrative Overview The Narrative Overview for autonomous vehicles reveals 11 narratives see table 3 spanning policy economic and sociocultural themes and reflect both the optimism and concern surrounding autonomous vehicles These narratives represent the dominant themes in what the engaged public e g thought leaders corporate leaders journalists policymakers technologists consumers and others are writing about reading and discussing online They convey a combination of fact and belief about autonomous vehicles Fact-based and belief-based themes in the online discourse both contribute to the analysis Although the importance of facts can be self-evident beliefs are often an important driver of actions--in this case actions related to the adoption risks and benefits of autonomous vehicles TABLE 3--NARRATIVES AND CATEGORIES CATEGORY NARRATIVE TITLE Transforming Our Way of Life Expanding Interconnectedness Supportive narratives about autonomous vehicles Car Sharing Is the Future V2V-V2I Improves Safety The End of Human Road Hazards Holding the Industry Back Vulnerable to Hacking Oppositional narratives about autonomous vehicles Disruptive Market Force Unlikely to Take Off Neutral narratives about autonomous vehicles Government Investing in the Future Many Speed Bumps Along the Way The Narrative Overview reveals widespread public recognition of the benefits from autonomous vehicles These benefits include but are not limited to improved road safety economic growth decreased urban congestion and increased productivity Narratives that support the emerging transformation of the U S transportation system might influence and sustain autonomous vehicles and provide insight into why and how people are likely to use autonomous vehicles in the future Oppositional and neutral narratives cite numerous risks and obstacles to autonomous vehicle adoption including cybersecurity vulnerabilities market disruption and high costs emphasizing a need for caution and significant regulation These narratives describe impediments to adoption providing decision makers areas that might need to be addressed before significant investment occurs in autonomous vehicles and ITS NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 12 Table 4 provides descriptions of the 11 autonomous vehicle narratives identified in the Narrative Overview These narratives about autonomous vehicles do not necessarily reflect the views of OCIA or Monitor 360 The supportive narratives can be generally divided into two groups The first argues that autonomous vehicles will make people's lives easier Transforming Our Way of Life Expanding Interconnectedness and Car Sharing Is the Future are all based on the idea that autonomous vehicles will enhance our lives Transforming Our Way of Life and Car Sharing Is the Future focus on a paradigm shift in which the benefits of owning a vehicle as opposed to renting a vehicle as needed will become negligible Car sharing tools such as ZipCar and Car2Go and ride sharing apps like Uber and Lyft are already reducing the need to own a vehicle especially for urbanites and autonomous vehicles will likely increase the push away from individual vehicle ownership Expanding Interconnectedness focuses on how autonomous vehicles will improve productivity Riders will be able to send emails hold conference calls read books or magazines and perform other tasks rather than focus on driving This capability will increase as vehicles continue to become more connected to the Internet with Bluetooth and Wi-Fi built in The second general category of positive narrative argues that autonomous vehicles will increase safety Autonomous vehicles and their supporting technologies such as V2V and V2I communications will reduce the likelihood of crashes TABLE 4--NARRATIVE DESCRIPTIONS83 NARRATIVE TITLE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION IN THE VOICE OF THOSE WHO EXPRESS IT Transforming Our Way of Life The inevitable adoption of autonomous vehicle technology will lead to profound changes in U S culture society and environment From expanding the reach of urban areas to creating new markets and changing consumption patterns to opening up mobility to previously immobile populations the opportunities of this new technology are seemingly unlimited Moreover automating transport will increase convenience for commuters and make parking obsolete freeing up vast areas of space dedicated to parking structures The public and private sectors need to take an integrated look at how this technology will change the way of life in the United States Expanding Interconnectedness Software being introduced to vehicles promises to alleviate the countless hours commuters spend stuck behind the wheel Moreover features such as wireless Internet will allow drivers to stream music and data work shop and do much more Real-time traffic updates will be communicated using V2V and V2I technology and will divert vehicles real time reducing congestion This new technology promises to bridge the divide between mobile connectivity and transportation ushering in a new era of productivity 83 The narrative descriptions are expressed in the voice of those who drive and express each narrative The narratives are derived from research conducted through Narrative Analysis which drew on nearly 2 000 articles and blog posts in the network reviewed by the Monitor 360 analysts from January 2015 to January 2016 Appendix A provides a summary of the top 100 news sources and top 100 blog sources for the nearly 2 000 pieces of content that produced the narratives NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 13 Car Sharing Is the Future Autonomous vehicles will fundamentally alter the transportation paradigm The current model underpinned by vehicle ownership delegates security to the abilities of each driver and incurs high ownership and insurance costs for consumers In a world of driverless vehicles car sharing will provide on-demand options for mobility In addition to clear safety gains car sharing will reduce costs for families lessen congestion in urban areas minimize environmental impact and make parking easier A future where car sharing eclipses car ownership presents innumerable upsides Therefore adopting this revolutionary new paradigm for transportation is a universal imperative V2V and V2I Communication Improve Safety V2V and V2I communication are a key to a crash-free future Enabling vehicles to talk to each other and the traffic infrastructure around them improves decision-making This talk improves the situational awareness of drivers and vehicles and provides real-time warnings of obstructions or hazards nearby V2V communication is beneficial for autonomous vehicles improving their capability to detect other driverless vehicles' intentions and thereby reducing the risk of collision Implementing V2V and V2I capabilities must be the top priority for policymakers and auto manufacturers to advance transportation safety and prevent millions of fatalities The End of Human Road Hazards Autonomous vehicles represent a major opportunity to curb a leading cause of death in the United States motor vehicle crashes Human error is the cause of most crashes and by taking that out of the equation driverless vehicles and their extensive safety technology could revolutionize passenger safety Relying on sensors and intelligent computers that react to the road fine-tuned navigation systems and other technologies that outstrip human abilities driverless vehicles may soon make motor vehicle crashes history A need exists to continue developing this groundbreaking technology Holding the Industry Back Government bureaucrats across the country are pumping the brakes on driverless vehicles Their supposed guidelines dramatically hinder efforts to test and develop this innovative technology despite the undeniable benefits it brings Politicians claim to represent the people but their shortsighted and regressive policies only cater to lobbyists and special interests If government blocks driverless cars the industry will move to other states or countries with more favorable policies Policymakers have a choice get on board the autonomous revolution or watch it go elsewhere obstructionism is unacceptable--particularly when stakes are so high Vulnerable to Hacking Although smart cars sound beneficial to how people live their lives the risks associated with these new technologies are reason for concern Tests conducted on several cars including high-end vehicles made by Tesla and Jeep have found numerous vulnerabilities easily exploitable by hackers Wireless entry for instance allows hackers to remotely control navigation systems or steering and even hijack communication with other cars Connected vehicles present a genuine and imminent threat to consumers The government must get serious and regulate security for this budding industry before a major catastrophe occurs Disruptive Market Force The adoption of autonomous vehicles will have massive harmful ripple effects on the economy The reduction in accidents and car ownership will drastically disrupt the auto insurance and services industry with fewer people needing insurance and new parts Driverless vehicles will also drastically alter commercial trucking and shipping services-- benefiting companies that depend on transportation at the expense of the taxi bus and truck drivers whose jobs will become obsolete Tax revenue may also be affected because of fewer traffic and parking violations Industry leaders and policymakers must adjust their business models to stay relevant and mitigate the consequences of this future NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 14 Unlikely to Take Off Although autonomous vehicles may sound impressive widespread adoption is unlikely Most projections fail to account for the varying needs of rural and urban populations as well as the cultural barriers at play Though urban dwellers may support driverless cars for evident commuting advantages the benefits and implementation for rural areas are murkier Moreover extensive adoption would require a cultural shift because personal mobility is tied with perceptions of personal freedom and many will resist the notion of giving up driving altogether Government Investing in the Future Although infrastructure in the United States is not always prioritized the Government has realized that autonomous vehicles are worth investing in The Government is demonstrating its commitment to working with the private sector to hasten development and implementation of this new technology through its investments including a $4 billion plan put out by the U S Department of Transportation The national outlook toward infrastructure needs overhauling The Government's interest in autonomous vehicles is a clear indication that it sees Transportation Systems Sector innovation as a key component of renewing U S infrastructure Many Speed Bumps Along the Way As with many breakthroughs and innovations driverless cars are much farther away than is thought Although autonomous vehicles are the future the barriers remain high and the timelines are too ambitious From the absence of necessary enabling infrastructure and regulation to the lack of ethics of artificial intelligence to uncertain interoperability of autonomous vehicle components the barriers to implementation are significant Instead of overhauling the auto industry all at once companies need to integrate smart technology in steps starting with vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure capabilities in the short term Manufacturers and legislators should be realistic and focus on incrementally rolling out elements of this technology over time Narrative Importance Analysis of the Narrative Overview also enables the calculation of a foundational quantitative metric called Narrative Importance This metric measures the prominence of each narrative during the period of the dataset Narrative Importance is calculated based on the volume of the discourse online about and related to autonomous vehicles the social sharing of the views and the underlying data that comprise the narratives and the consistency of the beliefs expressed in each narrative The Narrative Importance score shown in figure 1 measures the importance of a narrative within the Narrative Overview The balance of narratives shown in figure 2 compares the relative effect of groups of narratives in this case the broader grouping of positive negative and neutral narratives NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 15 Narrative Importance Narrative Importance Scores 25% 22% 20% 15% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 0% Narratives FIGURE 1--NARRATIVE IMPORTANCE SCORES84 Narrative Importance 80% 70% Balance of Narratives 67% Supportive Narratives 60% Oppositional Narratives 50% Neutral Narratives 40% 24% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% Supportive Narratives Oppositional Narratives Narratives Neutral Narratives FIGURE 2--BALANCE OF NARRATIVES As figures 1 and 2 show no single narrative dominates the conversation but two-thirds of the narratives are supportive with an additional 10 percent of the narratives neutral This positive outlook suggests that much of the public will be receptive to autonomous vehicles as they become available assuming they are priced similarly to standard vehicles Additionally Transforming our Way of Life has the highest Narrative Importance score which provides some insight into why people will adopt and how people will use autonomous vehicles This narrative encompasses several ideas but includes reduced needs for public parking in urban and suburban environments Cities would therefore be able to use their space differently potentially repurposing or knocking down parking structures or adding lanes to busy streets when street parking is no longer necessary but also would decrease city revenues from reduced parking Understanding that convenience is a primary reason people will adopt autonomous vehicles and that convenience will likely result in these consequences will help cities plan for a future where autonomous vehicles become pervasive in the United States 84 Scores may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 16 Narrative Relationship Analysis The Narrative Relationship measures the association of each stakeholder category with each narrative with a higher percentage indicating a stakeholder group is strongly associated with a narrative The Narrative Relationship analysis see table 5 identified five categories of stakeholders insurance companies automakers and the automotive industry technology-sector companies government and academia Table 5 shows the Narrative Relationship of the relevant stakeholder categories in each of the narratives in the autonomous vehicle Narrative Overview TABLE 5--NARRATIVE RELATIONSHIP ANALYSIS NARRATIVE INSURANCE AUTO TECH GOV'T ACADEMIA Transforming Our Way of Life 5% 28% 34% 5% 20% Expanding Interconnectedness N A 67% 17% N A 9% Car Sharing Is the Future 21% 72% 62% 8% 25% V2V and V2I Communication Improves Safety 1% 27% 34% 15% 24% The End of Human Road Hazards 4% 43% 34% 17% 43% Holding the Industry Back 3% 74% 39% 30% 13% Vulnerable to Hacking 2% 87% N A 20% 43% Disruptive Market Force 65% 63% 19% 3% 16% Unlikely To Take Off 16% 73% N A 11% 9% Government Investing in the Future 34% 19% 12% 47% 10% Many Speed Bumps Along the Way 8% 55% 33% 20% 32% Shaded boxes represent the most prominent audience s associated with each narrative N A indicates that no meaningful narrative was associated with this stakeholder group The insurance industry appears to be most associated with oppositional narratives especially the Disruptive Market Force narrative This is understandable because several uncertainties exist with respect to insurance and autonomous vehicles First who is liable in a collision involving an autonomous vehicle Will the driver or the car manufacturer be responsible Second uncertainty exists regarding the overall car insurance market As fully autonomous vehicles replace non- and semiautonomous vehicles and car ownership decreases overall will there still be a market for automobile insurance Interestingly the technology industry is associated almost entirely with positive narratives and is not significantly associated in any of the oppositional narratives Its only association in a nonsupportive narrative is in Many Speed Bumps Along the Way which highlights that although autonomous vehicle adoption is inevitable it will most likely face a number of challenges and setbacks The automotive industry is engaged in almost every narrative However it is associated with Vulnerable to Hacking because of the high-profile incidents of hacks that mention specific automakers but not because the stakeholder group itself is promoting this narrative NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 17 SOURCES FROM NARRATIVE ANALYSIS PROCESS The dataset collected and analyzed for the Intelligent Transportation Systems Narrative Analysis drew from more than 600 different traditional media sources and more than 200 blog sources Collectively they produced a Narrative Analysis network drawing on more than 135 000 articles The names of the top 100 traditional media publication sources and top 100 blog sources ranked by source prominence are provided in table 6 TABLE 6--TOP 100 TRADITIONAL MEDIA PUBLICATION SOURCES TOP 1-34 NEWS SOURCES TOP 35-68 NEWS SOURCES TOP 69-100 NEWS SOURCES 1 Boston Globe 35 Washington Post 69 BusinessPundit 2 CBS News 36 Chicago Tribune 70 CleanTechnica 3 Christian Science Monitor 37 NBCNews com 71 Communications Daily 4 CNN Money 38 Railway-technology com 72 Defense Transportation Journal 5 MSNBC Newsweek 39 San Francisco Chronicle 73 FD Fair Disclosure Wire 6 Boston com 40 BusinessWeek 74 FierceWirelessTech 7 Business Wire 41 Computerworld 75 Government Publications Documents 8 CFO 42 Los Angeles Times 76 Health Aim 9 Denver Post 43 SiliconValley com 77 Hot Hardware 10 Industrial Equipment News 44 The White House 78 Inside Cyber Security 11 Mother Jones 45 Fast Company 79 Insurance Networking News 12 National Journal 46 Huffington Post 80 International New York Times 13 PR Newswire 47 Wards Auto com 81 Mechanical Engineering 14 Risk Management Magazine 48 EE Times 82 National Public Radio NPR 15 Search-Autoparts com 49 Industry Week 83 NBC News 16 Street Insider 50 Mashable 84 Next Big Future 17 Tech Republic 51 RCR Wireless News 85 Philadelphia Business Journal Philadelphia PA 18 The Washington Post 52 TheStreet com 86 Rural Telecommunications 19 Time 53 Business Insider 87 TechSpot 20 WCVB com 54 Politico 88 The Independent Review 21 Wharton 55 CNET News 89 The Journal of Marketing 22 FOXNews com 56 ZDNet 90 Miami Herald 23 Wired News 57 CNBC 91 USA Today 24 CIO Magazine 58 Seeking Alpha 92 Consumer Electronics Daily 25 Harvard Business Review 59 Yahoo Finance 93 Consumerist NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 18 TOP 1-34 NEWS SOURCES TOP 35-68 NEWS SOURCES TOP 69-100 NEWS SOURCES 26 Mass Transit Magazine 60 Fleet Owner 94 Engadget HD 27 NetworkWorld 61 PRWeb 95 Network World 28 NPR 62 Reuters 96 The Detroit News Michigan 29 Roll Call Online 63 Bloomberg 97 AUTOMOTIVE DESIGN PRODUCTION 30 The Hill 64 24 7 Wall St 98 CQ Congressional Testimony 31 The New York Times 65 Assembly 99 Automotive News 32 Yahoo Autos 66 AutoWeek 100 US Official News 33 Forbes com 67 Aviation Week Space Technology 34 Fortune 68 Benzinga TABLE 7--TOP 100 BLOG PUBLICATION SOURCES TOP 1-34 BLOG SOURCES TOP 35-68 BLOG SOURCES TOP 69-100 BLOG SOURCES 1 Hacker News 35 The Ingenuity of the Commons 69 AnyVan 2 PBS NewsHour 36 IFExpress 70 DATAVERSITY 3 ArchDaily 37 NBC News Business 71 Direct2Dell 4 Tech 38 The Guardian Nigeria 72 GM Authority 5 CNET News 39 Ars Technica 73 6 WIRED 40 Memeburn 74 AMERICAN COM -- A Magazine of Ideas Online Game Revolution Everything You Care About 7 Kia BUZZ Kia's official corporate blog 41 Autoblog Green 75 NEXT Network 8 Pacific Standard Smart Journalism Real Solutions 42 belhabib com 76 Security Intelligence 9 CB Insights - Blog 43 The State of Security 77 Software Monetization 44 IndustryWeek 78 Technical ly Philly 10 it management Resources ZDNet 11 Autoblog 45 Silicon Florist 79 VentureBeat 12 Welcome to Linda Ikeji's Blog 46 Social Media Week 80 HybridCars com 13 Inc com 47 BMW BLOG 81 Insurance Journal 14 Nerdist 48 The Truth About Cars 82 MoneyWatch CBSNews com NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 19 TOP 1-34 BLOG SOURCES TOP 35-68 BLOG SOURCES TOP 69-100 BLOG SOURCES 15 INQUIRER net 49 platform 83 Network World 16 Transport Evolved 50 bizmology hoovers com 84 TechnoBuffalo 17 The Next Web 51 Daily Dot 85 AndroidHeadlines com 18 MediaPost Online Spin 52 Government Technology News 86 CloudTweaks com 53 Live Trading News 87 CTOvision com 19 Web Strategy by Jeremiah Owyang Digital Business 20 ZDNet Between the Lines RSS 54 WebUrbanist 88 Green Car Congress 21 GeekWire 55 M2M Now - News and expert opinions on the M2M industry machine to machine magazine 89 Inside EVs 22 Tech in Asia 56 Technology Personalized 90 John Day's Automotive Electronics 23 Security Bloggers Network 57 Identity Week 91 RushLane 58 The Inquisitr News 92 Techweez 24 Automotive News Breaking News Feed 25 WIRED 59 The Security Ledger 93 BLOUIN BEAT Business 26 Bosch ConnectedWorld Blog 60 InformationWeek 94 Disruption 27 MakeUseOf 61 Videos from CNET 95 Gemalto blog 28 Gizmag Emerging Technology Magazine 62 Blog of the NC State Alumni Association 96 Luxury Daily 29 Nextgov--All Content 63 Policy@Intel 97 Tuvie 30 ZDNet Social Business RSS 64 Transport Evolved Cleaner Greener Safer and Smarter 98 Playpen 31 The Motor Report 65 healthsystemcio com 99 Self Storage Blog The Storage Facilitator 32 Economy Class Beyond 66 Beyond PLM Product Lifecycle Management Blog 33 Government Industry 67 Legal Theory Blog 34 News at Florida International University 68 Motor Trend NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 20 DHS POINT OF CONTACT U S Department of Homeland Security National Protection and Programs Directorate Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis OCIA@hq dhs gov For more information about the OCIA visit www dhs gov office-cyber-infrastructure-analysis PDM16044 NATIONAL PROTECTION AND PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE OFFICE OF CYBER AND INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS 21                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu