DEC LASSIF IED Authority L LiFIFE W UNITED STATES ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION WASHINGTON 25i-Ob 12he 554th I IV 24 Ill-31H- I I - Dear Mr McNamara jl I nix-mg 2he January 8 1962 meeting of the Commission with Mr 23 Gilpatric and Dr Jehnson II mentioneId a reIcent decision by the Commissign to extend its studies of the effects of nuclear war The purpOse of th16 leItter is to further acquaint- the Department with the scope and background of the Commission' 3 interest in thig subject and to i yite your comme nts and sug- gestions on the studies we have decidedI to undertake From t1m2 to time over the past six years the Atomic Energy Commission has responded to sp2cial requests from the President the National Security COuncil the Net Evaluation Subcommittee and the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy to Iprov1de evaluations of the biological and environmental consequences of nuclear war- Ig fare An example of such a request is the directive received by ' the commission from the National Security Council in May 1958 asking- that the Commission v32 22% a 1 in_ consultation with the Special I Assistant to the President fer Science and- Technology Ia study appraising the upper limits bf massive ooh i Centrated nuclear detonations and their by-products whiCh could be tolerated by the peoples of the world and by the world itself I F I 4 l The Commission' 2 responses to such requests have been prepared on an ad hoc basis by various combinations of its Staff under tight deadlines for complet1o6 of the erk requested and witIhout the benefit of full liaison with the scientific staffs of other govern- ment agencies - It has_become-increasingly evident that-the scope and'complexity of these requests warrant continuing s tudy and evaluation The COmmisSion is now proPOsing_ to conduct such _continuing studies In so deing it is not the intent of the Commission to limit in cany way the activities Of- the other government 2gencies with teem a 3 5 1% F Efzfg-r ti i m hm EFFE DECLASSIEVFIED Authoritym a a I aways-amt 3 respect to studies of the biological and environmental effects of nuclear war but rather to assure itself that its own responsi- bilities in thbarea are adequately discharged and to clarify the interests roles and responsibilities of the ABC and the other agencies we would also raise the related question as to how the programs of the various government agencies in this area of study can best satisfy the needs of the government and assure that the information supplied to the President and the Rational Security Council is accurate and complete Past studies by the Commission of the biological effects of nuclear war have been confined to estimates of the extent of leukemia bone cancer life shortening genetic effects and effects on the thyroid which might be experienced by a horned healthy population subjected to the average dose of radiation estimated for the survivors of an attack These computations are subject to inherent uncertainties due both to the available biological date upon which they are based and to the estimate of the average dose to survivors In addition to further work to support such estimates the Commission feels there is a need to consider the following a the totality of malignant neoplasms and other biological effects which would affect survivors and the combined effect of external and internal exposure from alpha beta and gamma radiations in the produc- tion of each type of radiation-induced biological response b indirect effects on people resulting from direct effects of fallout and fire on wildlife birds in sects donestic stock forests and other factors of ecological importance and the possible effects of large numbers of nuclear explosions on local and global weather c the accuracy with which predictions of the bio- logical and environmental effects of nuclear war can be made and the variations introduced in the final estimates by such factors as the weather the season of the year the weight and character of the attack the amount of warning time and the type and extent of the preparations made for passive defense ' To our knowledge no comprehensive study has been undertaken which M attempts to include those factors as well as the short-term effectsf of blast heat initial radiations from weapons bursts and early nuclear radiation from fallout 7 E# m oeg pr a w ngKQ DECLASSIFIED 79H75k mammal is I an directing similar letter to the Director Harem of the Budget the Claim Net Evaluation Subcommittee the Director Office or Energency Planning the Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and the Special Assistant to the President for Science and Technology cerely yours Chairman The Honorable Robert S McNamara Secretary of Defense 3 5 Se 3% 4s                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu