n5 3 - This one consiets pages met a WW5 p 13 0 Diva-am DEPARTMENT or DEFENSE mi DEFENSE ATOMIC SUPPORT AGENCY wasmmorow 25 0 0 ADDR E33 REPLY TO THE CHIEF 361 ng ATOMIC SUPPORTAGENCY 3 JUL3962 DASARZ 930 1 MEMORANDUM FOR ASSISTANT TO THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE ATOMIC ENERGY SUBJECT Maze Don Study 1 Reference is made to my memorandum of 27 April 1962 discussing the participation of the Defense Atomic Support ogency in a joint Atomic Energy Commission Department of Defense study on the short and longwterm biological environmental consequences of nuclear warfare 2 The De ense Atomic Support Agency DASA hag completed the basic portion of ito contribution to the study to include the target ing against the BSSR for a eeriee of hypothetical attacko 3000 31 MT aod against each of two target systems each for surface and for air burst weapons the analysis of fetal and nonwfatel cas ualties from blast and an analysis of fetal and non-fatal casualties from radioactive fallout All analyses differentiate between the applim cation of clean and normal weapone The study presented at Inolooure 1 constitutes a basic or first iteration A second iteration will be forwarded on or about 10 August 1962 and will present considerable red fioements to the basic iteration in light of more accurate data and deeper analysis The latter presentation will explore in considerable detail the distribution of Selected radionuclides in relationship to categories of ecological interest 3 The basic study submitted herewith is in keeping with the orig inal guidance received for the conduct of the study '3ubsequent to ini- tiating work on the study however important parameters were better defined and on numerous occasions the parameters were changed The latest change is an on going effort to incorporate into the study modi fied weapon design data furnished by Dr Carl F Miller Office of Civil Defense arranged by Dr Miller on 30 July 1962 Copies of this study a 0 and folloWwon material will be forwarded under separate cover to Mr aa'd Cr Hal Hollister Atomic Energy Commissioo for use in connection with the 3 final study presentation igl mm Ma W-w a 1 Incl ifzggi ieup4 goo moo Study S HD ROBERT H BOOTH ut ajor General USA Dowecagoeo AT 12 YEAR mow AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 i QASA 53 1 ATOMIC ammo AC Nw z44472 Docxd 325861o5 - 102 This document consists ofW Eo_o page THE EFFECTS OF CLEAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS 1 Objective- The purpose of this study is to describe briefly the methodology techniques and data em loyed in calculating the immediate and shortuterm fatalities and casualties among people and livestock as well as to pro vide quantitative information for further study of the longmterm radiaw tioo burden among survivors farm animals and agricultural resources as a Consequence of nuclear war involving clean and normal nuclear weapon types in a variety of weapon applications A range of hypothetical weapon bursts totaling one three and ten thousand megatone in the USSR is considered investigating for each total the relative influence of weapon burst height degree of weapon cleanliw mess and to Some extent the system of targets For each case the num her of early fatalities and casualties are tabuieted and graphed and mabped in the cases of surface burst weapone The lifemtime accumulated external radiation dose sustained by survivors is tabulated and graphed es 3 epectrum of population and mapped to identify the areas in which the doses would occuro Furtherg maps are provided to show the extent of fallout radiation areas within which farm animals became fatalities from external radiation and areas of agricultural contamination by gross fallwoy out products as well as by radioactive elements of biological importanoeo Approximate estimatee of resulting world wide radiOMactive fallout are developedq Finally a brief analysis ie given with the results In the Course of this study assumptions are stated at points where they are introduced pertinent implications are noted and important oouroe material is identified 2% Aggroach In considering the relative effects of clean and normal weapons it is first necessary to establish some meaningful measuring indioes with which to compare effects of the two typesa Since a given yield of either weapon type has the same blast and thermal energy structural damage caused by each will be the some and cannot be used 5 a comparative indexo DOWHGRAEED AT 12 YEAR eoT AUTUMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 - 9 Elm fee 34 103 Aimee cleane 5 DECLASSIFIED AUthOrity Tbis q docum nt ___ __ r - oo SECRET oonsists of ______ pages Copies Ser1es _____ - 2 _______ Clean and normal weapons do differ substantially however in the produc tion of radioactive elements and this difference permits fatalities casualties land contamination and world-wide fallout to be significant measures of the relative effects of each type A simple approach would be to calculate the area of lethal contamination produced by a surface burst of each weapon type compare the relative areas and conclude that the clean weapon is so many percent as fatality-productive as the normal Such a conclusion might be quite mis leading however since it applies only to an area of uniform population density and does not reflect the possibility of overlapping patterns from other target areas It is evident that reliable evaluations require a real-world framework and to achieve this two comprehensive target systerns based upon a recent Target Data Inventory TDr were developed appropriate weapon assignments of three different total megatonnages were hypothesized and the fallout processes of the several types of radiation sources were investigated and converted into mathematical models for s1mulation in a high-speed computer Each of the twelve hypothetical attacks two target systems three magnitudes of attack and two burst heights were in turn run off in a computer for both the clean and normal weapon types A brief summary of results and conclusions are given in sections 3 and 4 below followed by pertinent tabulations in Annex A Discusstons of the parameters and methodology used are given in Annexes B and C information on radioactive fission product weapon material and soil fallout is provided in Annexes D E and F Discussions of population shelters fatality and casualty criteria agricultural contamination and world-wide fallout are given in Annexes G through J Detailed results are tabulated and mapped for each parametric combination in Annex K 3 Results Fatalities for all the combinations of weapon cleanli ness target strategy and height of burst are plotted in Figure 1 The first and most striking feature of the results shown is the very considerable divergence in total casualties There is a constant factor of 7 or 8 between the most lethal combination of normal surface bursts DO n GRAmA'r-12 inERVALS HOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 NW# 44472 _Q p p1R-P _---- R t GBP7T RI C T D D A fA eRPCI' 1954 5 E - Docld 32586105 i I I ATOMIC ENE GY ACT 104 N DECLASSIFIED SECRET AUthOrity - 3 and the more sparing air burst attack against military targets Another noteworthy feature is that for an attack of about 1000 MT total weight there are very few additional casualties beyond the air burst cases from the surface bursting of clean weapons regardless of whether the targeting is against military targets only or against the combined array of military and non-military targets Clean surface bursts do tend how- ever to become more lethal as the weight of attack increases owing to the small but accumulating contributions of radio activity o Another interesting point is that at about 1000 MT weight fatali ties are about the same from an air burst-combined targets combination a clean-surface burst-combined targets combination or a normal weaponsurface burst attack aga inst military targets only This equivalence disappears rapidly of course as the weight of attack increases Clean weapons burst on the surface against the broad target array cause about one-half as many fatalities as normal weapons for all weights of attack up to 10 - 12 000 MT In the more discriminating application against military targets only the clean weapons cause only 30% of the normal weapon fatalities for all attack weights Perhaps a more meaning- ful way of evaluating the relative merits of clean and normal weapons is as follows A clean weapon ooooo o o o _ oo c ' 4 _ lay doWIl o o o o o o o o --JPY- - - - of -- 8 to 10 times the total yield of _ ' ' ' - - norma1 weapons will cause the same number of fatalities as the smaller attack with normal weapons for either a broad mixed or specific military target strategy in the attack range from 500 _MT to more than 10 OOQ The most population-sparing employment of weapons is with air burst the most lethal by far is the combination of normal weapons burst on the surface which can devastate a population with as little as 1000 MT There are two or three conclusions which are pointed up by this investigation a It is quite feaSible in attempting almost any military strategy to inflict simultaneously almost any desired level of population destruction ranging from a few percent to almost complete obliteration The upper bound would be slightly higher than the normal weapon surface burst results shown with slightly greater concentration on popUlation centers ----- ----- -- DO' r ' RAIJ ll AT 12 YE R INTERVALS t NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED I DOD lNWij 44472 DrR 5200 10 - REGBPTRIGTED DATA SECRET ATOMIC ENERGY ACT 1954 cld 32586105 105 DECLASSHUED Authority The lower bound would be a percent r two per 000 MT with air bursta COncentrating on important military targets This lower bound could be reached by not targeting the several dozen military headquarters located in cities b in minimizing fat lities clean weapons Could be employed against hardened targets which require surface burats a With a more varied stockpile which includes clean weapons and the greater employment fiexibility which accompanies their inclusiona Considerable planning f rsatility could be undertaken with a minimum of constraints Annexes A Effects Upon Total Population in the Parameters Employed S RD MethodologyCS - Radioactive Fission Products C _ - Induced Weapon Material Radioactivity S RD Induced Soil Activity C Population Shelters C Fatality Criteria - Agricultural Contamination u Worldwide Fallout U Map typical S i E i memmi 12 YEAR INTERVALS 1m AUTOMATICALLY DOD 5200' 1 meme ENERGY 1302719515 SEEREE 16 Nw# 44472 Docrd 32586105 0 DECLASSIFIED AUthOrity 1 - I - I FOIA b 3 - 42 NWij 44472 usc '- 2162 a - RD DOE E013526 6 2 a Docld 32586105 107 I J This document consists Series LOW ATTACK DEAD INJURED WELL HIGH ATTACK WEIGHT MT DEAD INJURED WELL MEDIUM ATTACK WEIGHT MT WEIGHT MT DEAD INJURED WELL AIR BURST Combined Mllitary 586 1869 NORMAL WEAPONS I Combxned m111 79 22 108 51 301A 166 SURFACE BURST Military 586 1869 Combined AIR BURST 586 1869 CLEAN WEAPONS Combined 3 SURFACE BURST Military - 42 USC 2162 a - DOWHGRADED AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 Nw# 44472 DocId 32586105 FAG-8 10% I 35 JbiL IN THE USSR EFFECTS UPON TOTAL POPULATION DECLASSIFIED - ml-em - 42 USC 2162 3 RD DOE E013526 6 2 a This doogoent consists pa gs Bel ANNEX Parameters Emglozed An endless list of parametere have varying degrees of influence upon the resultant effects of nuclear weapons including such factors as the militafy and nonemilitary toeturee in the target areas amount of warning time general morale and reactions of the population etc There are important reasons for not introducing a wide variety of paramu etere an obvious reason being that many such parameters cannot be epeoiw fied numei ically i another being that some factors are almost completely dependent upon subjective j dgment and further that a long list of parameters tend to become interdependent upon each other A most importa ant reason though is that the introduction of additional parameters with more than one set of assigned taluee increases the volume of compuw tational effort geometricalky The first four parameters listed below are of prime interest in this study an are assigned specific values generating 24 Combinations for investigation with each combination being applied in turn These estate lieh the general framework of targetmweapon applicationa In addition9 there are three others which are not permitted to vary and in this sense are not parameters hot which require identification and description because of theitiimoortence to the development of resultso three reiate to populationv shelter meteorology and soil 2 yeagons Two weapon types are Considered clean and normal Three yields of'each type are Coneiaered in the study one five and twenty total megatonea I All normal or 7 all clean weapons are used in each atta k the weapon types are not mixed in any evente Weapon details relating to induced radioactivity are given in Annexes and Fe ammonium AT 12 YEAR DASA 5 5 1 8 NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DATA 1300 DIR 5200 10 curring mums 1954 44472 109 SECRET 2 Tarset Systems Two targeting philosophies are investigated A combined attack of broad scope was developed against important military targets such as long and medium-range airfields missile facilities weapon storage sites submarine bases command centers army air and naval bases supply depots military communications and other military facilities important war-support industries such as missile factories weapon production plants atomic energy installations aircraft plants large power plants and other major industrial centers as well as population centers Co-located targets were identified within radii of moderate damage expectancy from a one MT weapon with the aim point generally near the center of the complex unless a very important or hardened target was in the group in which case the aim point was shifted accordingly Once the target areas were identified weapon assignments were made within the constraints of the three weapon sizes considered in the study according to the techniques of the Joint Atomic Weapon Planning Manual and Air Force Manual 200-8 In the smallest weight of attack the targeting criterion was a reasonably high probability 50 - 90% of at least significant or moderate damage to the targets The locations and structural vulnerability of the targets was generated by the DASA Damage Assessment Center data baae which in turn 1 s largely developed from the Target Data Inventory TDI The second targeting philosophy included military targets only This was achieved by simply eliminating all non-military targets from the list Although this procedure reduced the number of aim points and consequently the weight of attack it provides a valid basis for comparison since the military target attack is then a sub-set of the combined attack and no additional aim points are introduced which would tend to confuse the results 3 Size of Attack Three weights of attack were analyzed in order to achieve a reasonably broad spectrum and more clearly show the direction on summ 'ry grapha in which the results are leading For the com fned targets 7ttacks the total i weights are about one three and ten thousand megatops The 1000 MT attack wa developed first mostly with 1 MT weapons DOWHGRADED AT 12 YEAR INTERVALS NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 NWtt 44472 SECnE'l' Docld 32586105 iiCh generally RESTRICTED DATA J TOMIC ENERGY ACT 1 95 110 11 Authority - B-3 achieved at least 50% Probability of moderate damage to the targets under consideration The same targets and desired ground zeros were considered in the 3000 MT attack and the individual weapon weight was raised as necessary to establish a high probability of severe damage The number of aim points and weapons care not changed reflecting an approach which would simplify the compafative analysis of effects upon populationsq animals and cropland A similar approach was followed in developing the MT attack in this case seeking a very high probability of severe damage to targets A brief analysis showed that the probabilities of severe structural damage were usually well above 90%e Even so there were a number of weapon left and in this case the target list was expanded to include 180 additional and less important targets These were added to the list in the proper militaryznonwmilitery proporw tions so as to preserve targeting symmetry It is to be noted that in some cases especially in the 10 000 MT attack9 the probability of damage was perhaps higher than warranted and in this scnee the large attack would tend to be weateful on the other hand since only one Weapon was aasigned to a given aim point implying excellent delivery reliability the sum total attack would tend to be very efficient Combat attritionel and other oucrational factors are omitted since it is not the purpoae of the study to attempt warugaming Weapon distribution and number of aim points are given in Table Bwlo k Height_of Burst Two heights of burst are employed in this study zero and 6 0 feet scaled according to the cubed root of weapon yield The surface burst tends to minimize blast effects upon Soft targets but is optimum for very hard targeteq 0n the other hand the 6 04foot burst is more feru reaching in damaging soft targets but cannot destroy very hard targets even if located directly under the burst point In this studyv all weapons in each run are either surface or air burst hence are not com plately efficient in certain target eituatione DOWNGRADED AT 12 YEAR n 350 DECLASSIFIED RESTW DNA uw uociuzozaco 05 111 DECLASDUHLU 4 iN Bu 5 Pogulation'Shelters Sheltaro for population are invariant for all attacks The shelter situation employed in the study assumes that there are no blast shelters for the yoyulation nor are there any fallout shelters specifically conw structed for the purpose IHouevor a reasonable measure of fallout pic tootion is available for a substantial number of the urban dwellers in basementa and tho central portions of multiwstory masonry buildings Shelter for the rural iohabitanto is not as effective It 18 further assumed that those not killed by direct effects are able to reach their shelters implying a reaaonablo amount of knowledge and training on the part of the population Shelter effectiveness is handled mathematically by use of a reoidual numbet which simply expresses the proportion of the exterior radiation which penetrates to the occupants within The b havior of the personnel with respect to the continued use of the available shelters io hanoled by an adjustment to the residual number Shelter protection for urban aha rural population is handle separately Additional details aro givoo in Annex Go The same meteorological situatioa is used in all attaoko namoly tho mean win a for the spring seaaon By choosing thio a of meteorological situation is reflected i avoiding the more erratic or extreme winter and summer meteorology An effective wind vector v giving direction and velocity at each burst point is developed by weighting the wind characteristics at appropriate altitude intervalo from cloud height down to surface according to the proportional length of stay of the average particle in each altitude interval At city burat wind velocity and direction deviation is introduced in order to oombine GET and wind deviation so as to produce by a oeries of ran om number runsv the significant median dose level for effects computation 'Downwind from the urban target area the effective wind vector 16 used withoot deviation Basic meteorological ata are proviaed by the Air Weather Sorvioo AT 12 YEAR EDT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED RESTRICTED DATA I DOD 1313- 530910 ATOMIC ENEEGY ACT 1954 444 2 Docldz32536105 112 11 41 1 - Authorityw 15 0 -A hi 1 44 TABLE B-l Yield Distribution of Weagnns Size of attack Low Medium Hi Type_of attack Combine Military Combined Military Combined Military Targets Only Targets Only Targets Only Total wt of attack MT 971 586 301A 1869 10000 6037 Number of aim points 607 351 607 354 787 #56 Number of weapons 607 554 607 35% 787 #56 Weapon distribution 1 HT 516' 296 369 2011 6 291 nowmnm AT 12 YEAR INTERVALS- NOT AUTQMATECALLY DECLASSIFIED 000 DIR 5200 10 bum'i' ATOMIC ENERGY ACT 1954 Nwagwqa 113 1 11 1 Authority 3 if I 22 13-5 7 gg$ fixed composition of coil elements is used for all burst points in a l attacks The composition reflects in general a croos between PodZolic and Chernozem two soil types prevalent in the target areao of the USSR The specific chemical percent by weight of the top foot or so of soil derived from a large group of soil analyaeo compiled by the Military Geology Branch of U568 Corps of Engineers in Engineer Intelliw I gencc Note No 329 Under the assumption that the analyses were performed with the application of heat which would permit the escape of unbound water and organic matter the chemical compositions given were a juote to reflect the presence of i7 water and 10% cellulosic matter in units of It must be noted that soil compositions vary radically even within local regions and variations in specific elements by a factor of ten are not uncommon Further it is likely that a numoer of bursts may occur on or near paved areas which could influence the induced activitieo markedly U tf There is little information for gui ance in this respect9 however Addim tional details and a iscuoeicn of coil radioactivity is given in Annex F oococaaomo AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIMED DOD DIR 5200 10 SECRET moms mom A Nh t44472 114 Authority 3 2 2 This accument consists pages- _-__JLW_Ccpicsx le ANNEX Methodology In order to calculate the number and distribution of casualties and fatalities by electronic computer or by any other method it ie first necessary to identify on a geographical haste the number and location of all urban and rural dwellers in the USSR to serve ae a data base upon which to perform the This information is provided in the Target Date Inventory which regularly furniahee information on the population of Soviet cities the exact location of the popuiation center of each and the radius within which are located 95% cf the inhabim tents of a city of at least 50 009 population For smaller citiee the radius reflects the built-uy area of the city which ie quite adequate for casualty assessment-since there is good correlation between building an population densities in cities of this size For rural dwellers the nation is divided into some 7500 cells the size 6f each being onewhalf degree of longitude by one-third degree latitude Each cell is identified by its geographic center and urban and rural populations In additicn to the pcpulaticn data base other input must be provided to the computer Such as tables of fatality and casualty prebabilitiee in terms of effective rediobiological duee i vulnerability number and certain other relatic ships which are required for machine camputation Using the urban population information of the data base the eomputer generates concentric rings about the City center each annulus being broken up into tracts of less than a halfwmile on sideal The incremental population is identified with the-center of each of these small areaeal Attack parametere are also input to the computer and include such details as aim point yieldg CEP and height of burst The casualty comw putation is then essentially a calculation of dietance between buret point or aim point with and the locations of the individual populaticr centers The distance is related to a probability of casualty which is then applied to the population group and summarized or printed out 419 DASA DOWEGRKDED AT 12 YEAR 63 3% EDT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 E2 $5 1 DocId 32586105 - 115 Authority 3 1 2'2 WW 7 a CW2 For radioactive fallout Computations a model described in WSEG Memo No 10 is employed in the Computer to determine intensitieag doses and probability of casualty from each weapon that affects the population point I Additional details of the blast casualty model and the nationmwi e fallout progfam are given ia Part A of the Joint Atomic Weapon Planning Model DOWEGRADED AT 12 YEAR INTERVALS NOT AUTOEATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 DocId 32586105 116 Authority 3 i 2 Z - Del ANNEX Radioactive Fission Products The fallout model employed in computing population easualtiee is the model develoyed in WSEE Memo No 10 as modified by information submitteo recently by Dro Carl F Miller of GOD The basic model is a mathematical representation of the spatial dietributioo of the Stabilized eioudis radioactivity which is then deposited downwind go a function of particle fall velocity wind speed and wind shear The resulting surface contamw ination is based upon Pecif test information and a radioactive material balance of 2500 rihrwso milee per KT fission provided by Dolan of DASA Miller s information9 based upon a comprehensive treatment of the thermow dynamics of particle formation during the early minutes after buret prow chemical and physical oheracterietice of the radioactive fallout materiaia Further information on the subject is provided in Milier s recent publioaw tions To the extent that the WSBG model is based upon teet data it reflecte to greater or lesser extent the fractionation phenomenon as it ocaurred in the Pacific r However as Miller s work shows there ie a dire ference in radioactive decay rate between the fractiooated and uofraow tionated activity Accordingly for thie study decay ratee for fraetionw ete material are used for fallout activity located within about 1% milee from burst point and unfractionated decay rates are used farther downwin n These decay rates are given in Tabie Del - - Haw Mm w AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTOMATICALLY DOD DIR 5200 10 agave Doardz3258610 117 video a method for reflecting the fractionation which govern the xfm 9rp Authority 5 EH 2 2 2w This doaument consirsts page-S - Eml ANNEX i 3 Induced Weapon Material Radioactivity Induced weapon material radioactivity contributes to th everall fallout activity Such activity depen s largely upon weapon design and composition The normal weapon as used in the tests between 1 954 and 1958 is the basis for weapcn radioactivity in this Study 3 - 42 USC 2162 a RD DOE 5 2 a Test data from two or hhree tests indicates that about 1% males are producad per MT total yield Los Alamos hag recently provided some data on this subject an Miller has developed an analytical method for determining theae ac ivitiea #42 Ji ax uff 1 mad-W W m AT 12 DASA 6 5 1 8 NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED D0 m 5200' RESTRUCTED 0m feiziic EHERGY ACT 1954 118 Hm' 1 - 42 USC 2162 a 35381 Kl dff m El 5381 EC 1er RD DOE E013526 6 2 a Docldz32586105 119 5 555505ij vma-nuull Luv Induced Soil Activity About half of the neutrons escaping from the case of the weapon are available for inducing activity in the soil elementa at burat point These radionuclides are carried up in the fireball and eventually daposm ited downwind with the other fallout materials As indidatad in Annex B Russian_soil Composition i$ used in this study Table le liats tha e elements and their abundance by weight Also shown fer ea h elemant is the thermal crosSwsect un which 13 divided by its atomia waight an mulw tiplied by its abunaance in order to obtain a weighted avefage EU as to I determine the proportion of incident neutrons captured by eacha The lower part of the table identifies the gammamemitting radionuclides which hav been included in the fallout model used in this project Miller I furniahed the dose rates and Knapp of the ABC provided fundamental inform mation on the suh ect 13055555555555 AT 12 YEAR 3 NOT DECLASSIFEED DOD DIE 5200 10 00cm 325361 120 U111 Authority 2 2 Soil Activif ETable Fall Tharmal by wt 53 N0utr0na Capturad E3 A Element 5% 03 We barns 16% p00 1001 00nt Hautr0n Oxygen 57 00 0 0002 0 0000125 0 0710 5 00 10 3111000 27 61 0 13 0 00063 12 80 9 61 10 Aluminum 3 90 0 21 0 00 8 3 00 2 28 3002 Carbon 3 22 0 003 0 00025 0 0885 6 05 Iron 1 71 2 50 0 0008 7 65 5 05 10 3 Magnesium' 0 30 0 063 0 00059 0 0776 5 83 10 Potassium 1 15 1 97 0 0500 5 70 0 30 10 2 Calcium 0 6 0 00 0 0103 0 87 6 55 10 Sodium 0 59 0 56 0 0200 1 008 1 06 10 Titanium 0 31 5 60 0 117 3 62% 2 00 10 3 Phosphor0ua 0 0% 0 20 0 0065 0 026 1 5 10 Manganese 0 00 13 40 0 200 0 9 6 30 0 10 Nitrogen 0 03 r1 83 0 1 9 6 0 4 3 30mg Sulphur 0 06 0 52 0 0162 0 09 039 i wh Hydr0g00 2 05 0 33 0 32 90 00 6 6 10 1 0 r r 000 Neutron Capture ENE per sq at 3000 T000 Na - 20 0 0106 2 62 10 1 Mg - 2 6 0 10 5 3 86 10 15 a - 28 0 023 1 05 00 12 01 - 31 5 4 2 10 1 90 10 19 - 00 0 00 5 4 10 28 - 02 0 016 0 55 Ca 0 09 3 0 10 5 5 28 10 15 En - 56 0 007 0 9 10 15 Fe - 55 0 0036 1 0 F0 - 59 1 90 10 2 01 10 19 DOE DIR 5200 10 5 i 0 Wm 00600 12 1 arc- HM 11 2 Authority ANNEX Pogulation Sheltere A description of the population ahelters in the USSR and their avail ability to urban and rural inhabitants have been furniehed by Mr Chariee B Walkef of AFCIN A150 given is the fallout proteetion footer expres sod reciprocally as a residual number provided by each type These are Shown in Figure Gala It is aasumed that there are no blaet shelters and that the population are in their basements and buildings at the time of fallout arrival An important factor in considering shelter is the behavior of the occupants that 15 the continued use of the sheltera It is believed that the Soviet population is aware of an has had training in fallout protection However a certain proportion of the occupants for one reason or another emerge for several hours daily beginning on the first day others come out on the second day' and so on This complete use of shelters can be reflected by an adjusted residual number which is determined by dividing the time integral of the decay rate for the firet 2 weeks into the summation of the product of the individual incremental time integrele amd residual numbers used during each interval The for a variety of shelter types and behavior patterns are given in Table Gma The proportione of urban and rural inhabiiants in eaeh sheltere behavior situation are given in Tablee ow and ne The combination of R 's of Table Gm and populations of Gw3 and are combined e0 as to prow duce the cumulative distribution of protection for inhabitants ee shown in Gw This distribution of R 's is uee to develop the probabilitieo of fatality and casualty to urban and rural populatione as a function of exterior dose which are given in Tebles 6 6 and Gw7 In any contaminated areaf it is assumed that the fallout fatalitiee are those with the least shelter In order to determine the lifewtime accumulated by survivors it is necessary to determine their shelter protecm teen and thie is provided as a function of exterior dose in Gw8 end Gw9o The resultant information is then put into the Computer in tabular form DOWHGRADED AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIEIED DOD DIR 5200 10 w# 44472 122 Authority if i 2 3 0-2 Shelfer Effectiveneas and Avaiiability Table Gulf Residual Categgrv Descrigtion Number Percant a Pcpulatian Urban Rurai I Multimetcry masonry 0 005 31 0 with basements II Brick atonee twa story 0 10 22 10 with baaements XII or insuln 17 50 ate log wooa roof no basement IV Simple frame or-log9 no 0 50 20 30 basement Open 0970 10 10 Residual Nugpers RN hy Sh lter Type Shelter Type I II EV Residual Number 09005 0 30 On 0 50 0 70 A j sted Residual gmbavs fur Shelter and Behaviar si uat oma Table Ga2 _ a agg g ehavior SE E 13 A Out 2 hrso aw day from first day 00575 am6 $83 0515 #70 B seaona 0289 121 0411 0507 070 a thin om A06 fm 70 30 fourth 0098 ucn 502 70 seventh 0066 102 t i a l F9 Out A hrs each day from first ay 1090 IQO a u o o second 0465 156 0419 o ah a third 00289 0121 56 70 fourth 9018' a112 0 06 o501 o70 Kr seventh 0082 363 0402 9902 070 L Out 6 each day from first day 3630 0256 kva 05% 070 Me If as second it 90671 0151 1 29 0520 vim Nq third oohja 5x33 9 1 513 70 fburth 00299 0 21 0 1 9510 070 Qo seventh a097 010% 9383 50# 70 DOWEGRADED AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTOMATICALLY EECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 Docldz32586105 123 UECLASSIFIED Authority Percent of Population in Various Shelter and Behavior Situations Table URBAN Shelter 2223 Behavior Pattern 3 55 Percent of Population in Various Shelter and Behavior Situations Table 6 RURAL Shelter nge Bahavi r Pattern 10% 50% 30% 10% arm AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTQMATICAILY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 32566105 124 mm odoomm mom QmeHmwd omm wag qummk oamd 90% NH 2 am wmumxoa ESLILSE F withmm l HY '33 43 I 123 15Miurru a twin aim $95 99 9 16% 353 A %mg DECLASSHHED Authority 3 URBAN F uk ve Q If S 3 km zrtganf diam ff or 352 vtf tll a' 3584 20 1C c a 06 'u 31sinBIG 1356 k 0a #3115 Wem Mim w Eose awe 543 7fo DOWNGRADED AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 DocId 32586105 126 AuthOI'l DECLASSIFIED Cm 3 23 #71 cg ngUg f Ldri' m Site fer 29f 358-12 A cm 1 1 5 LDCARIYHMP 5' 12 11 r1 r4345Lu - - - foo 2000 @509 60605 043 99 P053 A 00719ng 5 e fer DOWNGRADED AT 12 YEAR INTERVALS NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 l0 zewttzaqmz 'DocId 32586105 127 0 44472 DocId 5 32586105 128 maxi 1 nha fullNOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 DOWNGRADEB AT 12 YEAR 1 i '33 Mo WGURE 55H Dosc A amide Skelmr Mun-l i 7 W j _1 MrNOW 0 444 2 Docid - 32586105 129 A 3 11 1 4 1 135111111413qu DECLASSIFIED DECLASSIFIED Authority - le ANNEX Fatality Criteria The widely used dosage of #50r is used to identify the 50% probability of death from acute radiation the 50% yrobability of radiation casualty ig In translating from acute radiation dose to the more chronic fallout dose ac umulation the concept of effective radiobiological de e is used to expresa mathematically the fact that experiments on large animals show that they can survive larger doses of tctal radiation when administered over a prolonged period of time than when given acutelyo The experimental results indicate that a portion of the suatained dose is not repairable biologically but that the remain er is repaire in timea The factors currently approved by radiobiologiats are 10% net repair able the remainder repair ble at a rate of per day In a situation in which fallout radiation accumulation commences a few hours after burst the accumulation rate exceeds th repair rate for the first 300 hunts or soa By that time the fallout rate has decayed to the point where the recovery rate atarts to exceed it and the effective dose decreages there afterv finally reaching the irrepairable portiona NOT AUTOMAT DOD DIR 5200 10 AT 12 YEAR ICALLY DECLASSIFIED DECmsSinm 1 1 Authority ANNEX 1 ion Agricultural Contaminat To be submitted Jf gy 1 131 Docidt32586105 DECLASSIFIEJS 1411 1101 in ANNEX World wide Fallout To be submitted i wd f x JV 35 1 5 132 DECLASSIFIED qu uniqy I This dqcument consists pagfs mJ WCopies Serias miw- ANNEX Maps attached 2 12 YEAR 3 NOT DECLASSIFIED When separated from enclosure DOD DIR 5200 10 handle this dogum saw- 35 7 3 v Docidz32586105 3 133 - a 4 I DECLASSIFIED Aufhority to 25 15Dmep #34535 3'an AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 W w Docid132586105                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu