f DECL ASSIFIED twin lm DASARZ 930 28 August 1962 MEMORANDUM FOR CAPTAIN W F V BENNETT USN MILITARY ASSISTANT TO ATSD AE SUBJECT Study 1 Reference is made to ATSD AE Memorandum to Chief Defense Atomic Support Agency DASA subject Study on Short Long Term Effects of Nuclear War H dated 14 August 1962 2 The purpose of this memorandum is to provide a status report of the progress of the AECXDOD Study contribution by DASA to the fall- out and ecological study now under preparation by the AEC The com- pletion date of the DASA analytical effort and the compilation of data into a final report to the AEC is now estimated to 1962 This is also the delivery date for the presentation of material requested by ATSD AE reference 1 forecasted completion dates for thegDASA effort The delays in presentation of the final material are attributed to a The complexity of the study project b Changes in parametric inputs during the conduct of the study project I 3 It is recognized that there have been several inaccurately I c The necessity for the collection and application of detailed current and accurate data d The computer programming and system design complexities and efforts commensurate with the level of detailed analysistxeguired - are men - r as w - The complexity of the DASA contribution to the study exceeded all past experience in this area Although it is disap- pointing for all concerned that the estimated completion dates have not been met it is sincerely felt that the nature and importance of y the project warrant the time and effort required to accomplish the project in a thorough competent and detailed manner uw-u- M-w' 4 r- va 4 - emlassified Authority By denies Dyols-Joeur Date 03 09 201 Domldr32586109 A AUG 29 DECLASSHHED I Authorin DASARZ 930 SUBJECT Study 5 Mr Hal Hollister AEC was informed on 27 August 1962 of the delay in submission of the DASA material Copy furnished Mr Hal Hollister AEC DocIdt32586109 ii lii i CHARLES F CAR ER Chief Research and Analysis Division Authority 2 Z PARAMETERS ASSUMPTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS STUDY GENERAL 1 A study has been prepared by the Department of Defense Damage Assessment Center DODDAC an activity of the Defense Atomic Support Agency DASA as a contribution to a long term biological ecological study under preparation jointly with the Atomic Energy Commission 2 A portion of the study addresses the relative effects on population resulting from the employment of clean nuclear weapons as compared with normal or standard weapons The parameters assumptions discussion and conclusions from this portion of the study are as follows PARAMETERS 3 A range of nuclear weapon attacks totaling approximately one thousand three thousand and ten thousand negatons was postulated against Icombined military and industrial targets in the USSR A subset attack against the military targets only was also postulated but with correspond ingly less yield _ Discrete Single weapon yields of 5MT and ZOMT were utilized in the attacks 4 Two real world target systems based on current intelligence were attacked hypothetically as follows a Combined attaek against 1 Important military targets such as long and medium range airfields missile facilities nuclear weapon storage sites sub marine bases command centers supply depots and others Docldt32586109 - Authority 3 if 'j 2 l 2 War support industries such as missile factories nuclear weapon production plants atomic energy installations aircraft plants large power plants and others 3 major industrial centers b kilitary targets onl as a subset of the combined attack described above 42 USC 2162 3 DOE E013526 6 2 a 7 In order to describe shielding of population residual numbers a measure of attenuation of radioactivity were used The residual numbers ranged from 005 to 70 the lower the residual number the more efficient the shielding 8 Specific weapon delivery systems were not selected accordingly a SCOC it CEP was used for all weapons delivered No other operational factors were considered DocIdt32586109 DECLASSIFIED - Authorityj izL 1 9 In order to avoid the extreme and erratic winter and summer winds in the USSR a mean spring seasonal wind was chosen This resulted in a generally westuto east wind 'lC Soil composition was assumed to be a meld of the two most dominant types in the however recognition must be given to the fact that soil composition varies materially throughout the USSR - 42 use 2162 a RD DOE Eoisszs 6 2 a DISCUSSION 12 The basic model for the calculatiOn of casualties is a mathematical representation of the spatial distribution of the stabilized cloud's radio activity which is then deposited downwind as a function of particle fall velocity wind speed and wind shear The USSR is divided into some 7550 cells olongitude l Bolatitude and assessments are nade against the urban and rural population therein based upon the radioactive particles deposited 13 The general attack philosophies are as follows a In the 1060 MT attack mostly weapons were used 519 91 SMT and no ZOMT to achieve on the order of 50% probability of moderate damage to the targets selected b in the 3000 MT attack the numbers of weapons by type were changed 369 141 5MT and g BOMT to achieve a high probability DECLASSIFIED Authority gm of severe damage No increase in number of targets attacked was made over the number in the 1000 MT attack c In the 10000 MT attahk the numbers of weapons by type were again changed 220 104 5MT and 463 ZOMT in order to achieve a very high probability 90% or greater of severe structural damage where required One hundred and eighty new targets were added in a manner to main tain the military and non-military target symmetry 7 bIA b 3 - 42 USC 2162 a - RD DOE E013526 6 2 a The tabular presentation of fatal casualties is shown at combined attack and at and the graphical presentations are shown at military target attack only CONCLUSIONS 15 Attacks employing all surfacevburst normal weapons against a broad target array cause 50% 10000 MT attack to 100% 971 MT attack more fatalities than similar attacks employing surface burst clean weapons 16 Air-bursting of weapons is the most sparing of the population although at about 1000 MT weight of attack fatalities are about the same from an air burst combined targets array a clean weapon surface bugt combined targets array or a normal weapon-surface burst attack 7 For lower weights of attack clean surface against military targets only bursts will cause somewhat fewer casualties than the same air burst technique DocId 32586109 Authority 7 42 USC 2162 a - RD DOE E013526 6 2 a 18 The targeting philosophy is as important as weapon type in affect ing pepulation Attacks employing all clean or all normal weapons as well as attacks employing all air bursts or all surface bursts are not the most efficient and are thus not realistic Optimum targeting involves a mixture of air and surface bursts accordingly fatal casualties for an actual attack should be an interpolation between the air burst and surface burst curves according to the optimum air surface burst weapon mix Docldz32586109                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu