Authority iiZL Mu n 52 RECEIVED 0FF3CE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE 15 54 25 ac 3557 mama- 35p 1 91%2 MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE SUBJECT Results Of Special Vulnerability Analysis You may recail that the Department of Defense and the Atomic Energy Commission are currently conducting jo-intly a study of the longfterm ecological effects of nuclear war A portion of this study effort involved an evaluation of the numnber of deaths in the USSR predicted as a result of a variation of-weight of nuclear attack type of target system and'burst geemetry The results of this porticsn of the over- all study are quite interesting in the effect of weapon design on the resultant fatality estimate This analysis the results of which are outline-c1 in the attached tabulated data and curves was based on the following considerations a Two target systems were de ned one was reStricted t9 important military targets such as air fields missile facilities nuclear weapon storage sites submarine bases comman centers and depots the secan i system included the first as well as the industrial base of the @555 The nuclear attack level was varied by pragramw ming approximately L000 3000 and 10 600 MT against the ccmbined mili ary and in ustrial target system The levels directed against the military system were of lesser total View 22 Attack programs-3 were constrained to either all air burst or all surface burst for the purpose of this analysis 3 - 42 USC 2162 RD DOE 33013526 6 2 mewm ht #2 Vic ny luuwwxw' Vi- an $3 55 tgt u fw cliff quu 2nail 31 19 i Been w 3 nag mm 1954 a 93$ V361 SecDef N0 w mmwm 64 DECLASSIFIED Auth J - 42 USC 2162 a RI DOE 153013526 6 2 a $3 a Specific delivery systems were not sad-acted but a 3000 ft circular error probabie CEP was utilized for purposes 0f probability calcglations f Realistic shielding factora were employed Regults A tabular presentation of fatal casualties estimated for the various considered sages is at Tab A Graphs indicating the fatality estimate as a function are at Tab B The distribution of rarloug ieveis oi attack throughout the USSR are Shawn on the Charts at l a ii C The foilowing data extracted f r m the Tim A indicate the effect Of a variation in J11 the mortaiity estimate for the given attack level a Surface Burst Militarlyeindugtrial Target System Percentage Reduction from Total Fatalities Yield Millions Case 10 000 170 165 3% 1 40 18% 12 9 24% 12 0 30% 3 014ATOWHC 2 Docld 3 586105 if h 65 971 Air Target System Percentage Reduction fr om Total MT Fatalities - Surface Burst Yield Millions Case 1057% 971 - 41 48% 0 Surface Burst Military Targat System 3 - 42 USC 2162 a RD DOE EOIBSEG 6 2 a Percentage - Reduction from Total MT Fataliti s Yield Millions Case 6 037 188 100 865 192mm 353% mum mumm ti itRGY Am lQSti 3 AS AMEWED 66 - 42 use 2162 3 - RD DOE 3013525 6 2 a d I Target System Pertantage pant- ti Total MT I Fatalities Surfac Burst Yield Millions Case 74% Conclusions I believe there are certain that can be drawn from this preliminary analysis a For a given weight of attack in the surface bui st cases the eatimateci USSR fatalities ciecrease markedly with b Attacks employihg all surface-burst normal weapons against a broad target array cause 50% 000 MT attack to 100% 97 MT attack more fatalities than similar attacks employing surface burst clean weapons C Air bursting oi weapmns is the most sparing of the population although at about 1000 MT weight of attack fatalities are about the same frum an air burst- combined targets array 13 a clean weaponwsurface burst combiued targets array or normal weapon surface burst attack against military targets only Farlower weights oi attack clean surface bursts will cause somewhat fewe r casualties than the same air burst technique e The targeting philosephy is as important as weapon I type in aff cting population Attacks amploy'ing all clean or all normal weapons as well as attacks employing all air bursts or all surface 3 bursts are 3 101 the most efficient and are thus not realistic Optimum targeting involves a mixture of air and surface bursts SAFA #393230 m mesa 5 AS mama 4 67 Auihority fatal casualties for an actual a tack should b an interpolation between the air burst and surface burst curves according to the optimum air surface burst weapon mix Gerald W Johnson Assisstant to the Secretary 0f Defense Atemic Energy 3 inclesureg 1 Tab A Effects upon T013511 Population in the USSR 2 Tab LB - Effects on Population in the USSR Attack on Min- tary Targets Only and Com bined Attack on Military and Industrial Targets 3 Tab 10 000 MT on Com bined Targats and 6000 MT on Military Targets BAFA 2 mm Es mm ACT 1354 AS AMENDED DQcIdz32586105 68 Docld 32586105 69 EFFECTS UPON TOTAL DECLASSIFIED 70 32586105 DocId 44472 mmussa - 1133117157 31121210231513 ALL 35 933 1 2 1-14 an m n- Congf ned '3 mili- mil-1' a wx I My 1' ua4-1 at Mia 3% a 711 -- in 4 uxJH w mt i 1 - z- 1 wan-Ar v _5 1111c9m 3120 3 15373133 3913 2 5 43213115 1321113 saga sazs g 35393 LE $116 31151 4156 94 3317 73 5516-73 151 73' $1173 15 3 3311 s 73 3316 73 3315 7-3 Falloutmums 115 2'12 9312123 122 22 382112 1733 21 12212 221111 2 6 1 2121 11151 3211 32117211721153 2113211 3211 3211 0 130 2 2100 10 10144 18 3 3 145 1 2 131 s_9_ 141 130 132 175 113 153 33 19 31 157 incur - - 11232111111111 3914 1a 1869 an 3014 an 1869 m- 3914 m- use m- 3014 an 1359 in 3011 m- 1359 3011 m- 1369 3914 arr 1359 301 1559 201 st 1869 8 92 19 13g 11454 51527 533 gm mg 2313 5933 313 17g 331- 311 1073 2133 Eli zz 31157272 rs-1109mamas 2 1 3 2312511 9 1 1 3131 22 12122 29 11 1 1233122 2112122 221 2 2 3912 Elan 633111111111111111 0111111111 1111 1111 P3116111 sum 000019 0 1910 aoa' WELL 151 gig 3213 153 128 _6_2 asoon - IE 5 1man annex 10000 In 603 10000 5037 at 10000 an 6037 moon 6037 1mm m- 603 r 10000 6037 an mace 693 at 10000 603 1000c yr 6037 2 9 533 is 139 3 a 13 3_9 L82 3 as 3115 Falioul a 109 53 as 43 59-Ema1 1 13 514m 3375 if 11 11 11 1711 1111 1111 111 mum-4 son- 1 0000 once 1010 101010g91a1o on 9 09100100 r1 1 1-1463 mg 3213 1139 522912362 393 115 Egg 301 53 532311355 11102 ESE 32 3 2 3300 Docldz32586105 71 11% i f6 ll lrlai i a lg u 14% Tsy i I 1 WT Jim h TACK 3 A 3 cu AiscOz Baast I -1 rag f a liutx' 396 33 1832 Fax hawk F liaui FaileutM mnv 3 A23 gags sax a sea a w Q5 ullel 23 ii -Q a G 3392 hr2 3 9 Fig 1 h 55 xn n3 11Quka 3 05AGj52-5 135% yr 3 3 4 x are 05 32LnA- Qw a v 1 at 2 26h 9 54 Jam a Am Lu Manama wm w a 6 in m me 5 WE 1 20 45 A 2 4 555 4 saga 9 7 fun4 5 4EEAQ 18$ 5 A I 2 9 4 12 1 9m f3 3 5 Abra 7 qu T ii 524 1 me 5 L25 5 I 1 99 0661OUIVWZ Q4 TL asawn 0 Liuma yaw s a la awn Hewitt Ga Tn T h 2 EC mm 3% 3315 wx 3 QM 0mm mHmemQ - A In $66 at m Hu mg I 13at 5 Ara um QA any I 5 5 33 9 we A5_zgga 121 13Ema ir Mm mi migavmw 1er Em A QM me T QETJ f u m 3 1311 are 2w i 2 $ 27 5 m 23 3 1 Ewan u yum 3 raj 9 rd 3206 Wm T 4 3905 M-- QQ only an 333 15 5m mm I much my fatgramab 5 3m a 913 wwramwm 13639 Tm TE snag 9 1 5 ha a 3 5 5 Mam AI 5 quw 3312i 6 m r2 1 55 A db 2 1 5 Lam A H mwmm 1 Mm 5 3 5th 61% 1 3 1T rx 17 5 Q3 van15 7Tum mum 7 3 5 a f a saga Q3 T I 0 u xwr A3 a 9 I6 am $ 3ow 6 7 79 mm Tammy 13L 3 a 593win hr 3 z wughaum 3 5 canr mm 2ma 1 290qu anrsis 0 tie- 21 on Cc OD Kaometers 800 Scam mbmed Ta 9 Mules aw in QMAQN mm 22 6000 MT if Mifsfartf idrgat j 9 4 35 BQG Slaw MAR- 9 4 08 89C N- iomeners x55 kagx I st 97 32586105 m ocfd 44m 0 0                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu