DECLASSIFIED Authority m4 Cf W1 MW 3gp 251%2 MEMORANDUM FOR THE CHIEF DEFENSE ATOMIC AGENCY SUBJECT Special Vulnerability Analyais Pal-aim of the Ecolagical Study on Effiects of Nuclea War I refer to your memorandum ta me of 1 Septembar 1962 in a which you forwarded'the immediate USSR fatal caaualty analyaim parties of the study now being conducted jointly by the Atomic Energy Cammisamn and the Department of Defense on the long term ecological effects of nuclear war You will recali that this portion of the sway involved an evaluation m the number of daatha' in the USSR predicted as a result of a variatian of weight sf nuclear attack type Of targat system and burst geaxixetry Th3 results of this portion of the overall study were quite interesting anti they de nitely reflected the effect 0f waapon design on the resultant fatality estiw mate I am most pleased with the thoroughness with which this am-tier oi the Study was conducted by the technical personnel within the DODDAC and I wish you would expresa my apprecia an tc thaw persons responsible for thia fine effort This Much has indicataci certain areaa which merit further examination It is my understandiag that the immediate casuaity analyaia was pred cated on a prevailing westerly wind condition Therefore Ibelieve'it is necessary in the intereat of complete analyaia to rerun tha computations on the of prevail ing adverse wind condition Accardingly it appeara appropriate to inveastigate by means of a review of available ciimatological records i which patterns might be adverse from a fallout view point am well as a determinationbf frequency of occurrence It 15 therefore requested that thia anaiysia be eXpanded to include a martality estimate or adverse meterological ccmditions for the two target systems as defined in the initial study 33 wail Mira-am Wmua zm ATOMIC ENERGY #6011954 0 1 352 my 52 943 10 g3 3 - HGT 1 355 62 for the given attack leveia as appropriate for the military and the com bin-ed tarth aystems attacka It ia aasumeci that all other assumptions with the exceptien 9f the changed metero logical conmtiona will apply The'fs owing specific mortality estimates are raquired a A aessment of martalitiea for We tern Europe and Soviet Satellites by cauntry b Assessment of the mortalities suffered within the Soviet nion in a ditian thaw indicated it item a above it is under stood that this expansiun of the immediate vulner ability estimate can be completed by Octaber m 1963 'Gerald W Johnson Gerald W Johnson Assistant to the ecretary of Damage Atomic Energy Sept 62 751m mm nfn tlr r r T IDEA HFUHHU pinunui new guy - AS AMENDED 33 gm% mw# 44472 DocId 32586105 63                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu