Mussm Authorityi ZL This document conSists of__ 22- pages SECRET Se-riea l DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE DEFENSEATONHCSUPPORTAGENCY WASHINGTON 25 D C p ADDRESS REPLY THE CHIEF DEFENSE ATOMIC SUPPORT AGENCY DASARZ 930 29 OCT 1962 MEMORANDUM FOR ASSISTANT TO THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE ATOMIC ENERGY SUBJECT Special Vulnerability Analysis U 1 Reference is made to your memorandum subject Special Vulnerability Analysis Portion of the Ecological Study on Effects of Nuclear War dated 25 September 1962 2 In accordance with your request the Department of Defense Damage Assessment Center DODDAC has completed a special vulnerability analysis of three hypothetical nuclear attacks against the USSR The analysis addressed the effects of the adverse wind east to west upon the USSR the Soviet Satellites in Europe and the Allied countries of Western Europe and the results show the following a From a series of normal weapon attacks the Soviet Satellite countries of Europe would suffer widespread fatalities as much as 47 percent of the total population while the Allied nations of Western Europe would suffer a markedly smaller percentage 3 percent 50x2 WMD DTRA 3 42 use 2162 a RD nos E013526 6 2 a c The number of fatalities suffered in the USSR does not vary significantly from that of the mean wind condition westnto east a de Adverse wind conditions east-to west have been shown historically to be sustained for periods of 36 hours or more accordingly such wind conditions are amenable to forecast by trained meteorologists gm 30' a eclassified DASA 6 68 2 Authority 44412 By shuiicua QEWila Ckmeur DOWNGRADED AT 13 YEAR Date NOT OMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED SECRET - DOD DIR 5200 10 4 Docld 32586106 U112 CLA 4 29 DASARZ 930 SUBJECT Special Vulnerability Analysis U 3 A complete analysis is attached as Inclosure l xgz sgx%x izz%7 1 Incl ROBERT H BOOTH An Analysis of Fallout Effects Major General USA from Weapons Detonated in the Chief USSR Under Adverse Wind Conditions SECRET copy 2A mQZIm s SECRET DocId 32586106 DECLASSIFIED AN ANALYSIS OF LLOUT EFFECTS FROM WEAPONS DETONATED USSR UNDER ADVERSE WIND CONDITIONS ammuL l A special vulnerability analysis has previously been submitted to the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense Atomic Energy on the fallout effects of several levels of nuclear weapon attacks on targets in the USSR Parameters for this previous analysis included mean Spring wind conditions eight different weapon types and both air and surface burst Since the mean spring winds in the attacked area blow in a generally west-to-east direction it was found that fallout effects in Red Satellite and West European areas from the mean conditions were inconsequential 2 In considering the maximum fallout effects that might occur in the Satellite and Western European areas under adverse wind conditions a detailed examination was made of meteorological records of the past ten years pertaining to the western USSR target area seeking wind situations that might generally blow from the east for a duration of at least 12 hours Half a dozen or so very adverse situations were found and the wind situation of 3 February 1956 was chosen for effects analysis This particular meteorological situation shown on Figure l lasted for several days with little change and with winds of moderate to somewhat high velocity blowing from the northeast across the northern half of the target area in western USSR This wind potentially carries fallout debris over Finland Poland East and West Germany Caechoslovakia Austria Hungary Rumania Yugoslavia and extending as far as Switzerland southern France and northern Italy The low pressure area extended in a southwestwnortheast region and the winds on its southern side blew generally-from the west thus sparing southern Italy Albania Greece Bulgaria and Turkey in this instance 3 Having selected an adverse Wind situation computations were made of the fallout effects upon the populations in the Satellite and Western European areas for the Six levels of attack upon the USSR employing in turn each of the eight differe weapon types Shelter availability and utilization both urban and regal were assumed to be about the same as the Russian situation J 4 Results and con lusions of the analysis are given below and are followed by a brief_gfscussion of meteorological factors relating to the problem Section and a more detailed examination'of the effects of targeting militayy and nonwmilitary centers Section VDe sfiz ge AT 12 YEAR NOT AUTOMATICALLY DECLASSIFIED DOD DIR 5200 10 1 DocId 32586106 case 03776 DECLASSIFIED J Authority - Y'1 Lf 72 II 5 The adverse Wind case when compared to the mean Wind case does not alter the casualty assessments made for air burst weapons This appli es to the USSR as well as to all other areas 6 USSR - The adverse wind situation under the condition of surface bursts ha-s little overall influence on the fatality rates in the USSR as c omputed for the mean wind case the rates dropping by I to 4% as shown by comparing Tables A-I mean winds and I adverse The 2-7 million population thus spared are rural inhabitants ____ _ _ _ _ -- _ I1 The 16-19% rates 1n East Germany and Rumania drop to 2% with the clean weapons MOl t of the fatalities result from weapons directed against military targets near the Soviet western border Thi's aspect of the problem is discussed further in Section V below 8 western Europe - The adverse winds cause some fatalities in western 'EUrope Table 3 but by nolfieans as many as in the Satellites because of the increased distance from the weapon burst areas ------ 50X2 WMD DTRA FOIA b 3 - 42 usc 2162 a - RD DOE E013526 6 2 a III CONCLUSION FOIA b 3 - 42 usc 2162 a - RD DOE E013526 6 2 a 2 SECRET NW# 44472 Docld 32586106 DECLASSHHED milliono 10 The use of clean weapons Would reduce Satellite fatalities by more than two thirds and would cause almost no fatalities in Western Europe as shown in Graphs and 2 lie If the burst_area included a large number of enemy targets in the Satellites adverse winds would have a much more significant effect upon Western Europe than indicated above depending upon location and number of targetso Clean weapons would be proportionately sparing of population at about the same ratios shown above for the Satellites 12 it is unlikely that all weapons either in the USSR or Satellites would be surface burst hence the situation summarised above represents a weapon application philosophy which is perhaps the most unfavorable to be expected in regard to Western Europe however even a limited number of surface bursts in an unfavorable wind can produce significant casualties as in Section V below 13 The probability of recurrence of the given adverse Wind situation in all its details is exceedingly unlikely however the probability of a wind situation resulting in a fallout hazard in Satellite areas can be significant as shown en attached maps Figures 2 to 13 Figure 2 shows for example that the probability of a spring wind carrying fallout from the central target area into or through eastern Poland is about 13% ranging down to about 1% in France Greece which was spared in the situation described above has a fallout hazard probability of 1% or No METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS 14 The weather situation chosen for the adverse wind study was that prevailing on 3 February 1956 see Figure 1 c The winds entering into the fallout computations were those existing at the 500 millibar level approximately 18 000 Although the winds selected are not strictly identical with integrated effective winds applicable to the detonation yields used in the study they are considered to be reasonable approximations Some slight modifications of the wind field were made to compensate for the characteristics of the fallout model application used in computations Specifically the computational routine holds the wind direction and velocity prevailing at the detonation point constant i throughout the entire course of the fallout deposition therefore relatively smallescaled details in local wind structure which occur in any real situation are applied over a period of many hours and over a distance of many hundreds of miles The errors introduced may in any 3 steam i A Docldt32586106 thong m 7 one specific incident be appreciable in respect to an area remote from the point of detonation This effect was alleviated somewhat by estimating trajectories between various burst points and general terminal areas of interest and then selecting wind bearings and average course velocities which when entered into the model gave approximately correct reSults It must be noted that inaccuracies or unresolved small-scale variations inherent in meteorological observations make even the most detailed trajectory computations subject to considerable error Tests have shoWn that variations equivalent to 20% or more of total calculated displacements are common 150 To assist in the evaluation and analysis of the case study results twelve diagrams portraying the extent of the variability of 36 hour wind trajectories have been prepared Figure 2wl3 The diagrams represent the expected variance in trajectories originating approximately at Murmansk Pinsk and Tbilsi for each of the four seasons Basic information utilized included the mean seasonal effective winds 303 kilotonwlo megaton yield and their standard vector deviations In performing the calculations the trajectories were assumed to be straight lines constant in time and space Although this assumption is not precisely correct probability distributions calculated on this basis have been found to compare favorably with those based on a highly sophisticated wind trajectory model considering the full variance of the trajectories in time and space Inclosure to 2nd Supplement to WSEG a Monte Carlo Method of Wind Transport Based on Wind Correlations Percentage probabilities that a 36-hour trajectory would terminate or pass over specified areas were computed as follows a5 The trajectory of the mean effective wind from the hypothetical burst point was constructed b The radii of circles about the terminal point of the mean trajectory were computed to portray the limits of 99% 90% 80% etce probability of containment of vector in accordance with circular normal distribution within the standard vector deviation ca Radial lines were constructed from burst points through the extremities of each area in question The total probability of vector termination within this envelope and in or beyond the area was entered as the probability of a 36whour wind trajectorynterminating in or I passing over the area 16a The percentage values so computed are not additive and cannot be summed to provide total probability for various combinations of areas 6 however any additional computations for specified areas or combinations of areas may be readily made through application of procedures described above to basic data provided 4 DocIdz32586106 DECLASSHUED 17 Obviously this purely meteorOIOgical analysis must be applied to the radiological effects of the test case with extreme caution as the extent of casualty producing doses does not spread linearly with increasing wind speed and may not necessarily be distributed in a symmetrical pattern with other wind directions In a very general sense the relative probability of a trajectory passing over an area is related to the relative probability of fallout hazard to the area The diagrams indicate that the risk of winds specifically identical to those used in the case study are relatively low Nevertheless the risk of other abnormal winds extending across parts of the areas influenced or across other areas of concern may be seen to be significant V0 TARGETING CONSIDERATIONS 18 In examining the tables of results it appeared incongruous at first that there were not greater differences in fatalities between the military and combined target attacks since the latter had about two- thirds more weapons and megatonnage than the military Table 2 shows for example that there are substantial increases in Satellite fatalities in expanding from the low to the medium and high level attacks for both the combined and military targets cases 50X2 WMD DTRA 42 USC 2162 e RD DOE E013526 6 2 a 19 In attempting to resolve this apparent inconsistency it was at first considered that perhaps the computer programming or processing had gone awry but this consideration was ruled out since the effects tables always show fatalities to be as high or higher when megatonnage is increased 42 USC 2162 a RD DOE 200 It was tentatively concluded therefore that the lack of additional combined-target fatalities must be due to the relative locations of the military and non-military targets in the combination The target maps were examined and a megatonnage count for the high attack was made for the weapons targeted within about 500 miles of the Soviet border It was found that of the combined total in the area about 85% were directed against military targets whereas the national average was 60% This tended to prove that the lack of significant SECRET Docld 32586106 SECRET difference in fatalities between the military and combined target attacks stemmed from a preponderance of military targets in the western regions of the USSR where surface bursts would be most hazardous to the Satellites and Western Europe 210 In seeking more conclusive proof of this hypothesis the total nonwmilitary weapons combined minus military were run separately in the computer followed_by a separate run of those non military weapons directed against those targets in the critical region of Western USSR north of 47 latitude and west of 350E longitude 220 The results are in Table 4 together with the military and combined target totals previously computed The low fatality rate caused by the total nonwmilitary weapons shown in the table confirms that the weapons directed against nonumilitary targets do indeed add very little to the total fatalities caused by the military target weapons aloneu FurthermoreD the fact that 48 weapons of the total 331 nonwmilitary weapons would produce almost'equivalent fatalities proves that most menmmilitary targets are too remote to have much effect upon the Satelliteso '230 It is to be noted in Table 4 that the non military weapons would produce 6 6 million fatalities in Poland and the military weapons would produce 23 million if each attack occurred alone but both attacks combined would produce only 23 5 million The reason is that the fatality rate is so high that the only survivors have excellent fallout protection_and considerable additional fallout dosage is required to increase the fatality rate even by a small amount By similar reasoning the combined fallout in areas of low fatality rate is more effective than the simple summation of the two contributors because the combined dosage is approaching a critical level for those individuals in poor shelters 32 Incls 1 0 Table Awl 9 Effects Upon Total Population in the USSR U SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 20 Table Effects Upon Total Population in i the USSR Special Wind Case an SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 30 Table 2 a Effects Upon Total Satellites Special Wind Case U SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 40 Table 2eA Effects Upon Total Pepulation in Czechoslovakia swc a SECRET 1 page Cory 2A 6 SECRET a Special Wind Case DocIdz32586106 DECLASSHHED -Au uumyha i a tjzilt Table Effects Upon Total Population in East Germany SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 6 Table ZDC Effects Upon Total Population in Hungary SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 70 Table EffeCts Upon Total Population in Poland swc U SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 80 Table 7 Effects Upon Total Population in Rumania swc U SECRET 1 page 1 Copy 2A 190 Table 3 Effects Upon Total Population in Total Western Europe SWC U SECRET pageD Copy 2A 100 Table 3wA Effects Upon Total Population in Austria 1 page Copy 2A 11 Table 3wB Effects Upon Total Population in Finland SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 120 Table 3wC Effects Upon Total Population in France 9 SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 13 Table 3mD Effects Upon Total Population in Italy SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 14 Table 3wE Effects Upon Total Population in Switzerland SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 150 Table Effects Upon Total Population in West Germany SWC U SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 169 Table Effects Upon Total Population in Yugoslavia SWC U SECRET 1_page Copy 2A 170 Table 4 Effects Upon Red Satellites U SECRET 1 page CopyZA 18o Graph 1 Effects on Population in Western Europe from Combined Attack on Military and Industrial Targets in USSR U SECRET 1 page Copy 2A 19o Graph 2 - Effects on Population in Red Satellites from Combined Attack on Military and Industrial Targets in USSR U SECRET 1 page Copy 2A Murmansk2238nmmer 7 SECRET Docld232586106 SECRET - 63-21% 360 mfw PI-MS kmwAuvtunm gm-3 a 20 Effects on Population in the USSR - Combined Attack on Military ii Industrial Targets - Spring Wind Conditions - West to East Fission to Total Yield Ratio - Secret -- Cy ZAE 2 1 Effects on PopulatiOn in the USSR - Attack on Military Targets Only Spring Wind Conditions West to East - Fission to Total Yield Ratio Secret - Cy ZAE mo axiom a SECRET DocIdz32586106 18 wholly excised pages                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu