Authority OF THE SECRETARY CF DEFENSE wnsamsmn 25 0 0 OFF sac a EEFENSE 8 NOV 3962 MEMORANDUM FOR SECRETARY OF DEFENSE SUBJECT Results of Vulnerability Analysis oi Nuclear Attacks in the USSR Clean Weapons In my memorandum to you of 3 9 September 1962 11 forwarded a summary of the losults ofa pox E1011 of an were all analysis of the 3 long tmm ocological effeoto of nuclear war a study being conducted-m jointly by the Do and the ABC 1 For that study targeting was directed towarz l two different systems one a combined military complex and the other was restriotod insofar as possible to military taxgets 4 42 USC 2162 a RD DOE 33013526 6 2 a The initially'roportod results of the above analysis raised the question of the possible effects on populations resulting irom an advexso wind condition east to west particularly with respect to Western Europe and adjacent Satellite area Accordingly the Damago Assessment Center ro oxaminod the problem for the glove-roe wind case mm Attached at Tab A are two tables which Summarize the results of the analysis for both the prevailing wind and adverse wind situations Those table sumnlaries delineate the expected results in population losses as appropriate for the USSR Satellites and Western Europe for the different type of attacks and for tho Variations in the other parameters Attached at 335th B is the rmore detailod analysis pf rri o-o 5 mos oi U i ill lsli zoom 954 AS mow-3mayo mm Ali z im'f i get ow on oaolkli 33 5 Control No 73 7 rzye 1w DooIdz32586105 50 Comment While the absolute values of the total caSualty estiu mates as intimated for any one set of parameters are perhaps subject to a wide variation the comparative values and Heath are relevant I believe that the following conclusions can be rawn from this analysis The same effect is __true for Saiellite and Western European populations for the advetrsc Wind Case b oimb 3 - 42 Use 2162 a RD DOE-3013526 6 2 a The relative advantage of clean weapons malproves wuh decreasing weight of attack 13 01 lower weights of attack clean surface bursts will cause somewhat fewer casualties than in the airbuz st case DmcId 32586105 51 e The estimated USSR population losses for a given weight of attack are less by 4 000 000 to 8 000 000 individuals for an adverse wind condition as compared with the prevailing wind case 42 use 2162 a - RD DOE E013526 6 2 a g zzuuh td- Geraldw Johns 11 Assistant to the Secretary of Defense Atomic EnergySummary 0i Results Tab Deta ed Analy g xi orn 3Lb%k main tJh-nv 1 ng mam ACT 1954 AS rm rt Bocidt32586105 - 52 DECLASSHUED 101 in REGRJW 9 Eli BUM ZOO DOES NOT APPLY TAB A SUWARY OF RESULTS 42 use 2162 a - RD DGE E013526 6 2 a Nw# 44472 Decldz32586105 Prev Wind Wind VUSSR Adv 169 164 164 mp a 4 mimam AS AM ENDED A Suriace Burst Militarywindustrial Target System 5 ate llite 5 Prev 0 CD 0 Adv Total Fatalities Millions W Euroge Pr ev CD CD 0 Adv Wind Wind Win61 Wind 209 000 009 96 200 000 9 6 0 3 0 2 CD 53 Wu 0 3 Eit gj i yap c r' Surfauw Burst Military Targ vt System mad Airburst AS 0 500040% Tomi Fataliti s Millions USSR Satellites Europe 3 Prev Adv Prev Adv Prev Adv Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind 209 000 000 90 200 000 344 000 000 100 FOIAUD 3 - 42 USC 2162 a RD DOE E013526 6 2 3 00% 44472 54 DECLASSIFIED Authority 42 USC 2162 - RD DOE 123013526 Docldz32586105 7 DECLASSIFIED 37 v3 QATSZQEZ '4 FOIAGD 42 USC 2162 a RD DOE 3013526 6 2 51 an# 44472 would 32586105 ' 3                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu