Vimmt mm 7 factmiml mgimmt Wig-av m e mm mamakm Emmiamiwm W's 135 a my 32 2 @333 rm 3 m3 ma amm its mamas far W3 1 2 am mam was mg Mix a ai is mm We WW mama Bist hu hm - The iamiml as Ean mantald a 33m Mgr 5y 3% $31 2 Br Lang when separafadfrm ma a his acumen FQMLASSIHED t mat Him zz mg mg 41 a a - as defined 7e i 7 transmit-at 0f 24far A Wk This A 4 4 Authority 9 Kg ATOMIC ENHGY CUSSIFIED IITEIIM RECEIPT m uent 1 Mean leohnioel Leeietent Office of Science and Technolagy meant Office Building Huntington 25 D C gem kg ELI 202 9 i IEGISTIY no Den 12 1962 Mr 351 Hollieter Chief Technical Analysi- Branch Rivieion of Biology and Hedicine US Atomic Energy Gaussian Germantovn M 1 Origin of this receipt to be signed personelly by recipient and returned ta 1 Duplicate to be mined by recipient -8 We be be uni ed by under in eupenee le 4 Avail identifying Hebert Below in Any Hemmer Which Might Necessitete Classi cation of This Receipt mm - KNECK OI mum DATE OF DOCUMNT lit 0 mam FROM- REFERENCE OI m NO mm- Lu Dug Other New at cepy cc mm- 0 PC Other Number cl enclosure lid emu m October 196 11 26 62 35' I A group of papers in entitled Illuetmti the thinking and bu Program 5 11 Net- men-Donne Report 1 Comparison of Se Roz-nu Rucleqr Wee a 1k Preliminary draft of Progra- God 1 OED The Biological 5 hi 611-6 39 ted Effea in war rte of Clean and Danage Assessment the needs of the eon w 0110 reman-1 for the ma for th oorer sheet materiel xpleining bath tub wavering note m1 trauma 0 comm m1 uni cw ucmtm pan mane RECEIVED have received from the lender the meter- ml induding enclosures end attach- ments as identi ed above I usequ full responsibility for the safe handling storage end trenc- mitte deewbere a this material in fall accordance with existing regulations 1 mm I 55 7 r1 E5 pze I I f TAB HH 12 12 62 Briefing of Dr McRae December 12 1962 1 Government damage assessment by computer is very gross as now done we both agreed on that 2 He feels that a total program should include appropriate experi- mental work to be effective on this I agreed but pointed out that right now experimentation is not the first order of business 3 He described his idea of the total program as one directed to the question of what happens and what to do after one comes out of shelter this is much as Harold Mitchell has portrayed the problem with which I agree but up to date no _plans for TAB include the whole recovery problem 4 In speaking generally of post-attack work he indicated a feeling that it would have to be placed in one or more probably more technical centers which I also agree with With respect to TAB program 1 There is no question about a close working relationship with analysis groups in the the only question is how this is apropos a TAB-WSEG tie or for an institute 2 We are not necessarily talking especially at first about a large technical analysis group rather a small group 1x to 3x JIGSAW located in a large technical center ORIG TAB cc Dr Lough DECLASSIFIED Authority 4 75 751 3 i - ting the COWIDENTIAL A This mama-ml contains 3 Same meg I a 2 up o-E oi the Ul'd'i d - Inmm mm w its 18 U-NEICLEAR WAR DAMAGE ASSESSMENT IN THE newsman IN Pro z I 7' a i the esp-1 1 - n not rule transmitsicn or revelancn I Secs 1 1 on 1 4- - 11 he arson bich in any manner THE NEED II he following paragraphs give a brief discussion of our understanding of meaning np of is prohibited by low damage assessment activities within the Government Details have not been verified l By damage assessment 'is meant at least two things 1 receiving actual infOrmation eye witness or from instruments or otherwise after an Egg actual attack and summarizing analyzing this informtion to arrive at an $33 over-all assessment of damage before detailed on-the-spot assessment can be gag put together ii in peacetime using assumptions about an attack along conceptual models fer damage estimation to arrive at an over all assessment of damage all hypothetical Thefirst of these clearly puts emphasis on 7 speed cf communications and Speed of calculation The second would seem to require more emphasis on a research point of view 1 2 There are several groups engaged in-making damage assessments by calculation Date a The National Resources Evaluation Center NREC Office of Emergency Planning is primarily concerned with damage on the Unit 63% new My 0 States its civilian population and economy The computer group i on Genceged staffed by Army Corps of Engineers personnel The basic technical g - 9 and economic information fer estimating damage is gotten from otheig - 0 3 agencies such as Agriculture Labor etc Some model development it supportediby ERECTitselfr Emphasis'is on damage assessment in series 1 hence the classified location in relation to post-attack civilian command and control but with a tendency toward more emphasis on b The Department of Defense Barrage Assessment Center DODDAC is administratively a part of It emphasizes military damage but has some capability for civilian population and economic damage 3 As of this date Indications are it will be transferred to the new Defense Communications Agency thus emphasizing damagemams sessment in sense with a close relationship to militar 1 Aumo WW CONFIDENTIAL - 2 assessment Capability includes effects on the Sino-Soviet Bloc as well as on the U S A The staffing as for DASA itself is primarily rotating military personnel This group is a year or two old It also uses models and data primarily developed elsewhere though there is some interest in the staff of DODDAC to develop better models for themselves Emphasis is on damage assessment in both senses and ii about equally $ The Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence maintains a damage assessment capability within Primary technical responsibility is located in the Targets Division especially the Physical Vulnerability Branch Staffing there is military and civilian primarily military Emphasis is on damage assessment in relationship to Air Force offensive military planning targets abroad damage assessment in sense The P V Branch has developed a considerable amount of information on the physical vulnerability of targets to blast They have also developed a fallout prediction model The non-civil service Institute for Defense Analysis WeapOns Systems Evaluation Group has some damage assessment capability probably less detailed than any of the above but more likely to lend itself to flexibility appropriate to research WSEG's fallout model has been used by DODDAC and NREC This is clearly damage assessment only in sense The important feature of this group is however that they have an extensive-scientific staff in such fields as physics mathematics economics and operations research but not biology The RAND Corporation has been engaged in work supporting damage assessment including the development of a quick-running i But see footnote on page 1 CONFIDENTIAL - 3 computer model for SAC It is difficult to cite RAND's eXperience formally The nature of their organization tends to blend this experience in with much of their other applied theoretical analysis work RAND's general scientific capability is well knowno Standard Research Institute Technical Operations Inc 0 3 A complete nuclear attack problem - starting from the attack assumptions the shelter and population assumptions through to an estimate of the prompt effects - is well beyond the present scientific and administrative capability of TAB to carry out Bevertheless demands for comprehensive effects assessment exist because such information is the principal input to the longer-term effects estimate 'To begin to meet them TAB depends upon cooperative arrangements with NREC or DODDAC These whoever he may damage assessment groups TAB and the customer be have so far worked in roughly the following relationship The customer poses the problem This may be done fairly comprehensively including specification of exact targeting weapons sizes shelter assumptions etc or more intuitively by simply asking a question in which case the more complete problem Specifications are worked out between TAB and the damage assessment group i The specific targeting assumptions are not provided by or necessarily even known to TAB To carry out the prompt damage assessment estimates e go prompt casualties-and fatalities liveStock exposure land contamination levels etc the damage assessment group relies upOn previously develOped or acquired information mainly of two parts l It is usually this step that gives the its usually high degree of classification cm 3 - Authority 479 49 h CONFIDENTIAL 9 calculation models whose purpose is obvious examples are a fallout model an infinity plane radiation dose model a radioactivity decay model a biological injury model etc a so-called data base whose purpose is to provide the initial input conditions for the the initial distribution of the population or of shelters or of livestock land area etc Up to now TAB has not controlled either the models nor the data base TAB has been able however to request changes in the models - mostly extensions feund to be feasible which would lead to estimates not previously carried out eog cumulative gamma dose in addition to equivalent residual dose deposition levels for specific radionuclides in addition to deposition of gross mixed fission products etc TAB has also been able to arrange for consideration of more complicated conditions of shelter occupancy But these extensions are mainly just that with the result that TAB estimates are tied to the methods and assumptions used by the damage assessment groups Some of these are not in areas of subject matter familiar to TAB or even ABC but others are A major question for TAB's future is thus posed what relationships or arrangements for damage assessment as an applied research are desirable TAB prdbably has several choices Major reliance upon two Government damage assessment groups NREC and DODDAC for support perhaps tied into an effort by TAB toward improving both the models and the data DECLASSIFIED Authority 4 79 49 CONFIDENTIAL neg - 5 - base used and a commitment by the groups to use the_ improved methods of estimation at least for calculations in support of TAB's studies Development of an entirely separate damage assessment capability with superficially similar Objectives but actually a quite different orientatiOn and differing characteristics The orientation would be toward applied research or analysis and the development would center in a place where a competent research and analysis staff was already establishedo Some combination of and 5 Table lqA illustrates some ideas on the development of a research oriented computer damage assessment system DECLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL TABLE Preliminary Requirements for a Computer Damage Assessment System for TAB Studies l The basic objective for such a system is to provide a way of calculating an estimate of the direct effects of a multiaweapon attack on some large gee- graphical area such as the U S within reasonable limits of time and expense the calculation must furthermore meet certain requirements as specified below 2 Such an estimate servesprimarily as the input for the subsequent estimation of longer-term effects 3 The calculation should include an estimate of the associated error which will be of two types systemmatic resulting from incorrect assumptions and pseudo-random resulting from the use of a sample to represent a whole popu lation Investigation of the effect of such errors on the calculation as a whole is particularly important Such an investigation can be carried out primarily through so called sensitivity analyses choose different assumptions and see how the results change and repeated random sampling so that variances can be estimated h The calculation should include a degree of technical'detail concerning free-field and attenuated weapons effects and target response so that the detail of the estimates will he in keeping with the questions to which the estimates are supposed to relate Thus if som DOdy wants an estimate of the first generation genetic effects of internal emitters we must make an internal emitter calculation which requires considerable attention to detail in estimating debris partitioning fractionation particle size foliar retention etc Or if we are to look at the post-attack availability of livestock we must pay some attention to their pre-attack diatribution and vulnerability I _r a CONFIDENTIAL Characteristics of a Computer Damage Assessment System for TAB Studies 1 The geographical area of interest will be-represented as a two-dimensional surface on a sphere or plane Thus a coordinate system is used 2 This surface can be sampled systematically by the definition of a grid-mesh Perhaps two sizes of'mesh should be used A mesh paint will represent the-unit area I 3 Such a point sees all weapon events affecting it as determined by models representing blast pressure thermal radiation prompt ioniZing radiation and residual radiation local fallout 33 distance and time h There is an auxiliary routine for sampling the grid points randomly with a choice of sample size Stratified random saMpling is also possible 5 Means and variances will be computable fer all important output quantities studied 6 Inputs will consist of four types a Assumptions about the attack itself Assumptions about the attack environment winds etco c Assumptions about the distribution of prerattack resources and pOpulations d Assumptions about free-field and attenuated weapons and target responses 7 Resource information shelter protection aVailable can be put into the system in either of two ways a 'Into the coordinate system point by point b As a statiStical distribution function which can be sampled 8 Small systematic differences can be studied by reerunning identical random samples with altered initial conditions and treating the individual differences as a normally distributed random variate 8 Outputs will be detailed enough to show the shape of an appropriate statistical distribution or of an ordinary mathematical function of space and time 9 The print-out possibilities will be flexible I Authoritme 79 0 OFFICIAL USE ONLY 9 UNITED STATES ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION WASHINGTON 25 D C September 13 1962 A NOTE ON THE ENCLOSURE Enclosed is an outline summary of program on the biological and environmental consequences of nuclear war as we are beginning to conceive of it This document includes an examination of implications on national policy of such studies as we propose to undertake outline topic This is done because we feel it is quite important to develop such a potentially broad program as ours with some fairly clear notion of goals Because of the policy implications of this document it has been marked Official Use Only We would appreciate your cooperation in regarding this as for your use and that of your interested immediate staff We would like to have your reactions Thank you very much Hal Hollister Chief Technical Analysis Branch Division of Biology and Medicine in 3 OFFICIAL USE ONLY Aumo b nnfigigl ii V 9 OFFICIAL USE ONLY mm TAB PROGRAM AN Outline I Purpose and importance to national security policy of information on post-attack environment Why study nuclear war Is it possible that previous decision3have been made without an adequate understanding of the post attack environment decision to produce the hydrogen bomb decision to locate ICBM's on land and in hard sites which are likely to attract heavy attack with such consequences as heavy local fallout from ground bursts decision to defend Western Europe with nuclear weapons Nuclear strategy and weapons programs should preferably be adopted with an adequate understanding of their potential biological and environmental consequences A Strategy and foreign policy program becomes more important with any shift in emphasis from all out or spasm war to controlled war President Kennedy's special message on the defense budget on March 28 1961 Our weapons systems must be usable in a manner permitting deliberation and discrimination as to timing scope and -The formulation of strategic policy military planning and weapons develOpment and procurement require an understanding of the prewar and wartime constraints which can affect the post-attack situation should targets be limited to military objectives Is reliance on a relatively invulnerable system like Polaris which can be used against cities but not against hard missile bases likely to lead to a war in which people and property are primary targets what would be the consequences of a major shift in fission to fusion ratios how much early warning is important l __For presentation to the joint ACBM-Biomedical Program Directors' meeting Germantown September 13 1962 -OFFICIKL USE ONLY Author B a OFFICIAL USE ONLY Air defense -given a reasonably accurate forecast of reliability what protec- tion would be afforded by l a defense against ICBM's only 2 a defense against manned bombers but not 3 a defense against both and bombers A a defense designed to protect only our retaliatory forces 5 a defense designed to protect people and cities Civil defense Planning for civil defense requires a realistic understanding Of what we are planning against e gq the effect which fire radiation epidemics malnutrition and radiation from internal emitters within a context of intense shock social disorganization cochomic breakdown and civic disorder will have on countermeasures and subsequent recovery potential Recovery -despite its obvious importance this problem has never been studied adequately which may be part of the reason why the nation's civil defense program has had hard going in Congress - some questions are in what circumstances is recovery possible - how is recovery effected by prewar offensive and defensive postures A -are there feasible military constraints which allow for build- ing a recovery hedge into national strategy and weapons pro- grams -what kinds of wars lead to what levels of recovery potential The spread of nuclear weapons to other nations -four countries new have nuclear arsenals - nineteen more including Communist China are capable of producing nuclear weapons according to a report by a committee of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences -this kind of development could generate nuclear wars of unknown consequences Both minor and major powers might become involved Arms control Changes in policy-which appear to be small could make large differ- ences in the kinds of war that might be fought and their consequences a cut-off in weapons production and or a reduction in the size of stockpiles limits on delivery systems the establishment of nuclear free zones OFFICIAL USE ONLY DECLASSIFIED Au m qrh 0 OFFICIAL USE ONLY institutionalization of a stable balance of terror imple- mented by the presence of large opyosing nuclear arsenals II The TAB Study Program A General focus biology -the general subject is the biologicalg including the bioenviron- mental or ecological consequences of nuclear war -the emthasis on biology ices not exclude other subjects but biology is the central focus towers which other subject matter should point B Primary study fields 1 bioeconomics application of rational theories of value end decision-making processes to problems on ecological systems 2 bioengineerisg apelicatics of biological science and its underlying thysical sciences to control or alteration of our environmest witb sue cossideration to economic and social factors agriculture forestry fisheries etc 3 me icine ass health with syecial attention to recovery a communicable siseases b cancer and other latest effects 0 genetics d possible malnutrition in combisation with other effects er interacting effects e g 9 physical and emotionel strain resulting from exposure to weatherg eisease and shock etc f soggest the need for prsuwar establishment of post attack policies and standards for a i 4 food ard agriculture problems 5 radiobiology and radicecology -because this is an ABC programa even within the biological core there is an inner core of subject matter the bio- logical effects of raiiation and to some extent blast and thermal radiation generated by nuclear war- C Secondary fields of stuiy athese subjects are important because they erovise an information base and affect the analyses of the core subject 3 OFFICIAL USE ONLY DECLASSIFIE i -i D OFFICIAL USE ONLY 1 primary weapons effects both free field and attenuated 2 prompt damage assessment 5 shelter protection 4 population distribution 5 livestock distribution 6 design of comnuter programs many existing ones are not intended for research and are cumbersome for purposes Direction of study program problem oriented -TAB's role is to ask and to stimulate others to ask fruitful questions not detailed observational data or inquiry directed to inadequate questions This is achievable through feed bac and difficult study and analysis by an interdisciplinary research staff supplemented by special-purpose contracts which in effect extend the reach of the TAB staff the primary objective is not to advance the frontiers of knowl edge in fundamental areas of sciences There is no plan to sponsor experimental researche -the primary objective is to enhance the ability of the Govern ment to think fruitfully about those aspects of nuclear war included in our subject matter by a formulating a point of view toward the subject b applying this point of view by making theoretical analyses of particular problems and c developing ideas for other studies to he carried out by groups in other agencies is not responsible for operational planning of civil de- fense and_post attack reorganization or for the procurement of experimental research data on any aspect of the subject Standards for evaluating TAB's performance A B C TAB's efforts must influence the Government's vieWpoint toward the biological and ecolOgical aspects of the postnattack en- vironment TAB must identify major omissions in existing research programs in order to prevent unexpected shortages of information and inn sights on problems which will arise in the future TAB must stimulate the growth of other analytical groups to work on the many problems which are outside the scope of TAB's own direct program but essential to an understanding of the post-attack environmento Thus TAB is to be thought of as a think groupo Hepefully the pro gram will be formulated within and guided by these constraints a 4 a OFFICIAL USE ONLY DECLASSIFIED a - 7 Authority 4 79 a innr fr__5g IV OFFICIAL USE ONLY major routes of communication for the information developed through the TAB program A C E F TAB is asked to carry out specific studies of nuclear war effects for various Government agencies 1 these requests of themselves provide leverage which TAB can use to improve the quality of information developed by others relating to studies cooperation with damage assessment groups 2 the results of the studies are presented in written form offering an opportunity to comment upon the adeqnaoies of present information or analysis methods and to suggest improvements 3 the very nature of the requests is an indicator of what others in the Government may be concerned about as they study nuclear war TAB endeavors to develop and keep up direct personal contacts with other Government agencies such as OCD OEP USDA DOD Within the DEM program9 immediate opportunities for wide con- tacts in such fields as radiohiology9 ecologyy health physics weapons effects9 etoog exist Numerous Opportunities exist for discussion with the Commission and its staff and the advisory groups or for more formal com- munication as the TAB program develOps By supplementing TAB's own staff by study contracts with other groups the program is extended to include other people who can contribute themselves and by discussion with still others TAB will probably undertake some formal study of Government organization for working on post-attack problems OFFICIAL USE ONLY The following items suggest the scape of a look at nuclear war fooussing on the post-attack bioenvironmental situation l Appendix The pre-attack preparations early warning -shelter Kind of war -size of attack geographical distribution of weapon bursts -size of weapons fission yield type of burst air land surface etco -time of year month etc and duration of attack weather conditions Prompt effects -blast -thermal radiation -prompt ionizing radiation residual radiation fallout -indirect effects fire Survival Recuperation neconomic I usocial and political -environmental demographic -agricultura1 -medica1 -genetic The postmattack environment presents problems or unsettled questions that are at least as diverse in nature and scope as our present-day environ- ment presents0 VLook at the following brief list for example Agriculture and food Soil management soileplant relations animal husbandry and hygiene crop ecology irrigation fertilization pesticide tillage and other practices diseases and pests uand of course all of the problems of food after it leaves the farm nutrition Adapted from Herman Kahn DECLASSIFIED Authority 4279 fat I Land management Range management forest management river basin management' wild lands management reservoir management Ecology inter-Species relations depressions or eruptions of populations epidemics infestations extinction Public health direct weapon effects sequelae communicable diseases combined stresses                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu