C06513503 Approved for Release 2016 02 26 C06513503 - 3 The Strategic Warning Committee Afrocifies Wafc-hlis 451 Ham I a IdiNatiogtg Inte igeup War Eng I SE AL 2 004103 June 2004 9 24 mm 41 Approved for Reiease 2016 02 26 Approved for Release 2016 02 26 606513503 The Warliili 36Hiroc iti s Watchlisf CO6513503 Fw Sudan Arab militia along with government forces are being accused of ethnic cleaning and perhap genocide humanitarian disaster looms as the rainy season June 2004 1 I 2 NR NR 5x3 Approved for Release 2016 02 26 006513503 006513503 1 'Approved for Release 2016 02 26 006513503 130 3 Special warning Notice b11211 Sudan Both sides in Darfur almost certainly are still committing atrocities Government actions over the past sixteen months re ect characteristics associated with past genocide's A major humanitarian crisis in which nearly 1 2 million civilians have been displaced and some 10 to 30 thousand civilians have died is expected to grow worse during the ongoing rainy season The security situation also may deteriorate further deSpite the cease- -fi_re between Khartoum and the two major rebel factions and the arrival of 120 international observers - Since early 2003 military operations by government forces and militia including a systematic sc Orched earth campaign have resulted 1n damage or destruction of an esrimated 600 Or more villages 0 Hundreds of thousands more could die if ghting ares and massive aid is not forthcoming I Lvith the loSs of the last growing seaSon major humanitarian assistance will be needed for the next 18 months Many atrocities can be attributed to the Jenjawe ed a militia numbering between 11 000 to 15 000 ghters om regional Arabs tribes Khartoum has been using the Jenjaweed to destroy the rebels support base within Dar ir s ethnic African villages Ithe government provided arms to the Jenjaweed and continues to support their attacks on villages including air strikes Neither side has the to militarily defeat the other yet the government Seems doterrnine to try to eliminate the insurgency and the rebels show no inclination to lay down their arms militia members may be joining Sudanese army units to hide their identity from international observers - The rebels continue to engage government forces and last month appear to have shot down a government helioopter The government is accusing the rebels of taking advantage of the cease re by seizing territory June 2004 3 Approved for Release 2016 02 26 006513503 - tad 101 3 131 3 we 3 6 5 1 3 5 3 Approved for Release 2016 02 26 C06513503 Juize 2004 4 1 Approved for Release 2016 02 26 006513503                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu