UNCLASSIFIED us Department of State Case No 11201240055 Doc No 305576353 Date 03 24 2015 IN GETTING TO SUCCESS IN KYOTO STRATEGY AND TACTICS We anticipate that neither the existing S proposals for developing countries particularly Annex and Evolution nor any expanded set of obligations would be included in a draft text to be prepared by the AGBM chairman Raoul Estrada of Argentina However the release of the chairman s text expected around October 1 1997 provides an opportunity for the U S to call for a fallback in which we could endorse a two stage process 0 Stage I conclude an agreement in Kyoto with the elements that would be acceptable including the exibility provisions and items de ning deve10ping country obligations under' Article 4 1 but eliminating Annex and Evolution and - Stage 2 proposing a Kyoto Mandate to negotiate anew agreement albeit linked to the Kyoto agreement that Would involve all Parties for example through the kinds of criteria suggested above on a percentage of global emissions and GNP per capita We would not submit any stage- agreement to the Senate for its advice and consent to rati cation until concluding negotiations under stage 2 Calling for more stringent obligations now prior to release of the chairman s text gives us cover when we introduce our fallback with signi cant and new develoPing country obligations Rationale - - Reaching international agreement on the existing U S position is probably impossible and is almost certain to end in failure- for which the U will be blamed for straying outside of the negotiating mandate agreed in Berlin with its evolution and Annex proposals 0 Furthermore we know that even the existing developing country language in the US draft protocol proposal is inadequate to meet domestic standards set by the Senate and others 0 The option of terminating the negotiations either intentionally or mnntentionally would create an enormous political backlash both domestically and internationally the President the Vice President and senior Administration of cials have consistently and at numerous meetings called for success in Kyoto - A two-stage process could provide both for success in Kyoto and for including developing country commitments - Strong statements with new ideas for deveIOping countries will both respond to and signal the importance of including speci c developing country commitments Process - - internationally we must Strongly support our existing proposal With new ideas elements at public appearances and meetings prior to the release of the chainnan 5 text To assuage concerns 6 om Japan that we are sabotaging success in Kyoto we may need to explain our strategy at the highest levels only to other countries We will need to submit a draft Kyoto Mandate by the Bonn meeting - Domestically we may choose a similar path forewarning senior environmental NGO representatives about our strategy a We can expect substantial flak from NGOS and in the press over the next month prior to our announcement in Bonn in October with our new proposal some in industry will also Oppose this v approach as an indication of our commitment to a target REVIEW AUTHORITY Alan Flanigan Senior Reviewer UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case Doc No Date 03 24 2015