@ L DECLASSIFIED Authori Ji 'IWi 2a l rRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONTROLLED nr 3EM o JlIU ' U JI 'e -- U S DEPARTMENT OF STATE d '1 '_1- DIRECTOR OF INTElliGENCE AND RESEARCH JfOf J - 327 April 30 1969 To Through From The Secretary Subject FRG - Further Delay on NPT Signature sis INR - Thomas L Hughes The action of the West German Cabinet on April 23 further postponing a decision about NPT signature pending additional clarifications of the Treaty and renewed diplomatic efforts to get a more satisfactory response from the USSR appears to indicate that as the FRG approaches a national election domestic political preoccupations are beginning to outweigh the international pressure that Bonn has been under to sign It is now extremely unlikely that West Germany will sign before the Bundestag election on September 28 How soon it will sign after that if at all depends to a degree on the results of the election An unexpectedly large vote for the Social Democratic Party SPD and for the Free Democrats FDP would make an early signature much more likely Conversely an absolute majority victory for the CDU CSU Christian Democratic Union Christian Social Union -- considered unlikely at this juncture -- might well strengthen opposition to the Treaty especially since its leading opponent CSU Chairman Strauss could be expected to emerge as a major figure in such a government As of now domestic political opposition remains strong In the cur- rent Bundestag the SPD and FDP favor adherence the CDU is split CSU the Bavarian sister party of the CDU is 100-percent opposed This report WIIS produt' d h ' Ihe Bureau of Inlelhgl'f'lcl' II r d P C k'3Ieh ASide from normoal uh lllnli I lrh Jnge with other 3Renrlr' II 1 1' ' hl' working level hoi I t I ho t't I I K d l1el I s whert' SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM OONTROLLED DISSEM nd the If as DELLASSIFIED i Anthems Mignon - - but No FOREIGN DISSEM - 2 - many observers expect the radical right-wing National Democratic Party NPD gets more than 5 percent of the vote in the coming election another group of deputies adamantly opposed to the Treaty will be installed in the Bundestag Lack of US Pressure Gives FRG Leewax Kiesinger's dilatory tendencies as Chancellor the extent of opposition to the Treaty in his own party and external circumstances such as the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia and the consequent delay in US Senate approval of the Treaty have combined to enable the FRG to postpone a decision Now in addition to political sensitivities associated with the electoral campaign another factor is at work -- FRG assumptions about the attitude of the new US administration FRG press spokesman Diehl on April ll cited the lack of US pressure as an important reason why Bonn had plenty of time to obtain required clarifi- cations and did not need to reach a precipitate decision about signature Opposition Uses Traditional Arguments Familiar arguments -- of both a political and technical nature -- that opponents have used ever since ERG adherence to the NPT became an issue are still being put forward They relate to l the need for further assurances against Soviet claims based on the UN Charter of a right to intervene in the affairs of the 2 the belief that Bonn ought to obtain a counter-concession from the USSR in return for the concession represented by FRG signature 3 the importance of assuring continuing nuclear protection for the ERG should NATO dissolve while the NPT remains in force FOREIGN DISSEMICONTROLLED DISSEM DECLASSHHED Authority E 030 1 SECRETINO FOREIGN DISSEMICONTROLLED DISSEM - 3 4 the desire to spell out the terms of a EurOpean Option the conditions under which a supranational EurOpean defense establishment presumably including the FRG could succeed to the nuclear weaponry of one or more of its members -- in such a way as to permit this to happen before a full European federation was achieved 5 the problems of inspection especially the difficulties in reconciling the inspection systems of EURATOM and IAEA the expensiveness of inspections and the danger of industrial espionage 6 the desirability of having the super powers make serious progress toward disarmament before the non-nuclears undertake their obligations under the NPT Appeal to Nationalistic Sentiment At one time or another the FRG has appeared to be satisfied on most of these points except the first two Kiesinger said last year that the US interpretations given by former Secretary Rusk had removed West German misgivings on almost all major questions The fact that the same issues continue to crop up in Nest German criticisms of the Treaty indicates in part that some of the stronger opponents never were satisfied that these questions had been adequately answered Beyond this and more significantly however it shows that these issues are being used by some West Germans to rationalize an opposition that is really based on nationalistic emotions and on the political advantages to be derived from playing upon these emotions in the public at large The underlying sensitivities that many conservative German politicians have about the NPT were expressed most tellingly by CSU leader Strauss when he said that an FRG signature would constitute a Versailles of cosmic proportions FOREIGN DISSEM DECLASSIFIED 9109003 FOREIGN DIssui-I 4 Treaty Supporters Weaken Their Stand While the opponents of the NPT are maintaining their position as strongly as ever supporters of the Treaty to judge by the actions of their chief exponent Foreign Minister Brandt are beginning to tread more softly than before Brandt did not press for signature at the April 23 Cabinet meeting as hard as many had expected him to do He has favored the Treaty primarily because he believes German adherence would help him to attain his foreign policy goals Now that domestic political motiVations are beginning to predominate he and the SPD are adapting an attitude of caution on the NPT as they are doing also on broader questions of All-German and Eastern policy In this election year they are none too sure that touting the NPT and pressing for signature -- particularly if such pressure produced a serious squabble within the Coalition would not hurt them at the polls FOREIGN DISSEM                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu