The unauthorized d1sclosur of dass1fred rnlormat1on may Je prosecuted under Section 793 and Section 798 Title 18 USC and 1s punishable o - lrne of not more than s10 ooo 1mpr1sonment of not more than 10 years or b Jth SECRET NOFORN JULY 1999 A PRIMER ON THE FUlURE THREAl o -- o - r _ - ' oo o ' o o o ' o - -- - ' -- ooo o or _' - Reverence for the past is important but so is regard for the future - Brad Herzog RJTURE THREAT APRIMER oN me THE DECADES AHEAD 1999 2020 The Purple Book -- b 3 10 USC 424 b 6 Tltt vfrrws x11resserf lier oin are 1wt full b LCL_L W JU u r l UJ J ll l ll J U -- LtG P11trirk 1 fill iws Director of DIA Thh publicatir1l is dassifo d SEC ff E'f 1 4'0f0ff N Some p11gr5 md some parasmph ah' 1md11 sified 1111d art' 1m1rk ed 11S 11d1 l J COPYRIGHT WARNING Rq1r ld11ctinn f miy p11rt l1f Iris doc1w1e11I i llt I mflrc ri ed 1Fill1011t rnordi11111iclll il'itl1 DIA Furth ''' di sm1i11atio111 the 11hC1tograph mid d1 1rts In thi 1oublicalio11 is ' o use ' UNCLASSIFIED 1101 aut 10riz cd Tobie ol Conients Table of Contents I Executive Summary II Introduction Cht rv ic 'v _ _ The Re ponsihi lily of lnte Jtigl'IK __ - umpli ln' _ _ Force Prllll'l Iion hnperalive _ Hiatu' ---- A S1rat1 ogic' Opprn1uni1y _ Gloh il Change _ 5 6 7 8 9 10 III Global Issues and Assessments 13 The Ecoruomir Ernin nmcn1 14 The Sen1rity Em mlll llelll _ Trm1smtti11nal hstu _ _ 23 Criti al 17 41 42 l ln1 crtaintie- _ Kev Puint- _ IV Re ional Assessments Ovcrvk w _ _ lnitcd Slate - - Majllr Powers _ _ _ Ru sia _ _ _ _ __ Europl' _ - - - A ia and the C 1ura us _ A ia - - - India and The Suhrnntinl ' ll Mitldk fa t-Nrn1h Afrirn _ _ Central Suh-Saharan Afri a __ _ Latin Anll'rica _ _ _ _ Regional Pov ers _ 43 44 47 48 57 67 69 81 84 94 100 108 V Defense Systems Science and Technolog y Over iew _ _ _ Glnhal Defeme Trend _ __ 109 110 Gwund For e Tr1 nd- _ __ _ _ 113 N11val Fon e Trend _ _ 115 UNCLASSIFIED fUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 - Tobie of Contents - - - - ---- ----- ------- ___________ __ Air Force Trc11lh _ _ 117 Air Defense Fmce Trtond _ _ 118 119 l fo ik Trends Spacc-Ba ed Sy1 1em Trend _ - Scien e imd Tcdmnlogy Trends Global Technology Comparisnth _ 123 125 127 Vf Future Wart'ari vcn icw 129 B111tko pal'1 ' o o o o The Al1 ilnd Dynamio of W 1r C1ll'fOl'ie ot Conllict 130 131 134 VII Outlook l'l 'it' - o o Key Challl'11 l'' ro lhl l S AlttornaliH h11ure O icr The lluril'on Ti1m Lin 191J1 0 ll _ __ __ Pondcrahh s _ __ _ Fla hliit k - My Interest is Jn the fulute my life there 145 146 148 150 152 154 155 becauo I am going to spend the rest of Charles Kettering ii FUTURE THREAl 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED DIRECTOR DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 4 July 1999 This is the fourth edition of the Primer on the Future Threat and my final as the Director of DIA My intent remains to provide a thought provoking docuw ment that highlights for dectsionmakers and long range planners those threats and challenges that may emerge in the period 1999-2020 and beyond Over the past five years the Department of Defense has grown increasingly concerned with the future global security environment in part because of the ambiguity and uncertainty that we expect will continue to characterize the global condition Lacking the central threat focus of the Cold War we must anticipate a much broader set of challenging circum stances and conditions This primer endeavors to help decisionmakers and planners by illuminating key trends that will impact the world of the 21st century identifying critical uncertainties and addressing potential implications for the nature of conflict and warfare The primer is organized into five main sections global issues regional assessments forces and science trends the nature of future warfare and an outlook section Each individual section is designed to 'stand alone ' collectively these 'chapters' provide a comprehensive depiction of the spectrum of diverse threats and challenges confronting our nation over the next two decades While the message is sobering my intent in preparing this primer is not lo instill fear or forboding Rather I hope that by identifying and discussing in realistic terms the emerging threat environment such knowl edge will hefp leadership better understand and prepare for it Finally a word about my approach to analyzing lhe future For the purposes of organization and 'readability ' this primer is presented in a linear fashion Accordingly the projections and assessments depicted here generally rep resent a 'best estimate' in light of current trends However I understand that the process of global change is essentially non-linear that events will likely unfold in unanticipated ways and that the complex lnteraction of multiple trends will yield startling results I deal with this dynamic by sponsoring numerous 'alternative futures' analyses examining various 'wildcard' low probability but high impact scenarios and by ensuring that the process of developing these annual primers remains dynamic in content and qharacter Knowledge is power Insight is greater power FP g PATRICK M HUGHES Lieutenant General USA UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 - - ' i - o oooo PRIMER REGIONAL DEFINITION USA CANADA LATIN AMERICA ASIA SOUTH ASIA Subcontinent CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS SUBSAHARA AFRICA MIDDLE EAST-NORTH AFRICA EUROPE RUSSIA oo o D D mt------------------------------ J o0D -------------------------------- 4 o - ' ' o ' - ' ff t _ o '- i - or 1 o FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED P eview of the Fuh Jte 1hreal Preview of the Future Threat fU The past ten years ha 'e been marked by dynamic change and great uncertainty The next decade is likely to be equally so because the basic engines of turmoil remain la ely in place The volatile mix of global politkal economk social technological and militar ' conditions wil1 continue to bring great stress tu the international order No condition circumstance or power is likel to emerge over the next 10-20 ears that wlll somehow transcend these sources of instability' and lead to a more stable global order U This dynamic change has spurred a dramatic increase in the operations tempo of U S and allied forces Our increased dail global engagement posture consequentl t limits the forces and resources available to respond immediatel ' to other potentially more demanding regional warfare contingencies The same is true for defense intelligence resources The analytic challenge assessing the future threat has nenr been greater as a multi1ude of emerging trends irl'e'r ersibly impart the global security environment One of the most challenging trends is the increasing crilicalit ' of information its rapid dissemination and integration as well as its subsequent management Proper use of information can aid in the creation of a more benign and sla ble securit emironment while improper use can exacerbate the current stressful conditions or ll During the next two decades a new securit paradigm will t 'oln - one in whkh the United States faces a generalized global set of rompeti1ors and potential adversaries the troubling prolireralion of negatin-' tec hnologies and the existence and at times rapid - emergence of numerous persistent small-conftict conditions and sit uations The new global condition will affect e ery aspect of military acticm including the planning and execution of current operations and the development of the strategy organiLatiun and equipment that will shape and define our future forces fl' Though there is little chance the l S will confront a Sm iet-like Johal militar challenger during the first ten ''ears of the new century threat and threatening ondition remain and others will emerge o er time Collecth ely the combined impact of numerous local regional and transnational challenges presents a formidable obstacle to our strategic -ision The most important or these are discussed in the the main sections of the primer - -- - - - - ----------UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 I skate to where the puck is going to be not where it has been W - ayne G retz ky GLOBAL ISSUES AND ASSESSMENTS REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS r I to each other will remain cumpJex and Critical global issues surrounding weapons and technology proliferation are potentially the most dangerous and at times the hardest to as eSS The direct threat to U S force and interest worldwide is in rcasing in i on onam c wilh the proliferacion llf nudear chemical und biological wcapon i mis iles and other key tedrnotogic lndc 'd this r 'pre ent - the greatest pmcntial threat to lJ S national curity extant lJ Major powers and their relationship intertwined Ru sia and China - both underg ing lengthy and difficult tra11'itions- will retain important str ifi 'g ic and operational militaT i capahilitie and likely reprr ent nur mosl impm1ant lo11g-rerm nation-stare -oncem Other major powers may compete more openly among themselve and with 1he U S - in attempting to shape the tucure m ording tn their interests t Large regional puwer s possess aAArc lU Other critical J lobal issues concern gate capabHilies and are integral to our ing demographks resources health and climate often haH an indirect and less apparent impact on our security The 2lnbal dvnami1 will ontinue 10 spur u1nero11 regional and local cri- cs ' Prnlonged ten i mns in the tiJdlc Ea- t the Balkan'i and the A gean -ignificant tension on the Korean peninsula ethnic tribal and religiou dispu1es throughout nmny parts l'f Africa rnntinued ho tili ty bctwl en India and Pakistan ongoing liorder disputes between ' en rnl nation nn l ethnil and political conflict in resnur e-rirh Cenlral Asia - all ha i the potential t erupt abruptly into larger conllkts Meanwhile a host of other issut s-e g humanitarian cmcrgen1 ies migrntion health i sues and environmental degr u Jatinn -will bccoml increasingly prnblematk International terrori m drug traflkking illicit arms tran - fers and other criminal aL tiviry po e direct daily Lhrcats lo U S citiz ns property resource omd ink'r6ts The sophbtication anc I signifo am c of these rhrccm will likdy incro -a e over th n xr twenty years regional interests Select regional poweri -C f Nonh Korea Jraq lmn vill retain the military capability IO directly attack our allies and our int rc- - t - with little warn nf Nonh Kor a continued belligenmce pmt s sonw -Crious c incerns a ' well Though analytical opinion is di ided on if and whrn the Korean penin u a ill be rl unitied the eventual out com will we1gh heavily on t s intt resh in the region DEFENSE SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY l' l Trends in armed for 'es and the impact of scientific and terhnologkal innovation on those fnrees will remain a critical component of our analysis Nonwe tcm anned force will cominue to show a dedining lr nd in conventional weapon platfom1 inventoric allhough many will incorporate add-on ' 'Stems and upgrades w improve thn e thal remain Sdt'-1 ti d t hnological advance - in soml ' equipment ''Today's mllltary leaders cannot have scientlllc knowledge atone They must be students of warfate with an imaglnatlOn capable of pro ecfing forwatd the principles of the past to the specific requirements of the future n Gene1al Maxwen D Tay 01 ---------------------- --- - - - ---------2 AJTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSJFIED i I Execuhve Surnmory P1e111ew of lf' e future lhreat will improve capal iili1ic - anJ irn n ase lt lhaliry Urn on 'cntional and a y llmerric appwache will be pur u tl I cost cffl ' ' liw imd indin 'l't rne1hod of l1ppo ing m defl ' nding a ainsl the ES and its allk Chief among thc e rncthmJ will ht the im orpor 11ion of mis iks mH l WMD into a greater numhl'r of milirury ar nals The use of space will incn ast t'XfXlnl'ntially both for comml'rl'ial and curi1 purpos1 lrnrx nt ling changes and den lnpm1 onh in dcnw md kchnology will 1ff1 'Cl not only 1hc WoIY we lin and work hut abo lhe way W 1 onduc1 l i The idea that single enmts happen in isolation and can be dealt with in u singui lar manner more unlikely to be true than 'er Th gltihal impact of icdumlo y the integration of glohal -ystems the hlend ing nf om ' ulturl s the dkct 1lf long ran '' wc tpon- and th ' t'mergl'llcc of a hos1 If tr ui n itional threah hn1 I ' C1 nrrihuted to tlKo nc 't n1rke1 f' 1rkl now ' olving hefor ' our C 't' - The future 1 onditinn o our tidal 11rdcr i lik' I to ht' 1 halll 'ngcd and threal i ni -d not h a mgk l' 'Cnt 11r npponclll bm r uhcr hy the nl 't cffl'l'I ol sc t ral tor c cn muny rnndition anJ drt um- warli1n t in- c wl11i h wh 'n comliin1 'd h Wl' FUTURE WARFARE much larga qt1l'l1' I ' and more lhan 111 1 i nilk tnl l onsc- expccll d The art and leient c of future l tmflict bani come under inl'reusing scrutin ' in Thl' lll't cffi 1 1 of 1hc lhn ats md haltandem with an uncertain future The r 1pid kngt 1n' f 1cl' j thl' underlying 1hcmc rac of mili1arily i 11ifa m11 tc l111olo i 'al or thi- prnt11 or adv Ul1 1 mc nl partkularly in rhc ari t'i of information and com111uni1 a1io11- - will con- l l 1inut' Major tL'dmologinil hn al throughs in 1111llla1y capabiliiy an likdy in the 1wx1 two dt'l'adc1 Sum l Sf'L'-1 'ls of nur floclmolo ical dnminanc --cspcci tllj thn' 'I ' with wmmcl'cial 111d i11dus1ri 1I appli miPns -will lx- dif hcull to maintain 'L' 1 111 cxpc-1 t our adwr ariL's to dcvdnp and apply ntow or innovative ti irms of asynunctric nml 1sy111 hmnotl'- warfare a they ' eel to 1lh- mi l' 1hcir interc l 'i while avniding direct military ngal cmcnt with the United IL'rlllS liltci on our The systemic 'net effect' of numerous small conflicts and contingencies may be equal to the stress and strain of a major war OUTLOOK l 1 'foken toarethcr- the inform 1tion in lhis primt'r is indl'cd imposinJ and com pl Thi ' c1i1111 pro itk'- m mi n i1 w mu a hril'f loo 11 1- cy thalkn l's altcrnathl' t'rnnos futurl miccrn and a 'nippl't f hi tmy to 1 on1cmplalc In lht nd de- pitl' uur many t'onn m '11 l' Ii vc in the f t all'sl na1i011 on the frirc of 1he L'arlh and lUl' rc pun ihiliti1 ''- ll'L' global Wl' h m tlw opportunity hi do much good Change means fhe unknown if mBOns too many people cry insecurity Nonsense No one from fhe beginning of time has hod security Eleanor Roosevelt UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 3 The ' ni uture is visible to u aked throng i1 eyhole of --- ---- - - --- - - --------- - - --- II lntroauc1 on Oven-iew Overview l The pace and complexity of change in the global environment is staggering Con sequently the U S Intelligence Community is faced with an extremely daunting challenge in assessing the must likely outcome of this dynamic enl'ironment But the stakes of the Intelligence Community's efforts are no less than ensuring the safety and s urity of our nation and its citizens as well as more directly the military per sonnel charged with their protection The forecasts in this primer are dependent on several assumptions that are Identified on page seven The most significant of the ie are the as mptions that the U S will remain a global power and will exert its leadership globally Consequently accurately assessing the future threat is of critical importance to U S forces deployed around the globe UJ While many diverse challenges loom on the horizon no global competitor on the scale of the former Soviet Union is expected to emerge in the near term Additionally many 10 eign militaries are in the process of scaling down their military services while enhancing the technological sophistication of their weapons One result of this will be increased competition over innovath'e strategic technologies While foreign militaries are in the proce s of completing this tr insition a hiatus in the threat of major conflict is expected during the next ten years For this reason it is critical that U S military strategists and planners seize this strategic opportunity to posture the U S military against the future threat environment and potential adversaries that will exist in ten to twenty years The purpose of forecasting Is not to be right but to avoid being surprised - UNCLASStFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 Peter Bishop 5 ------------------ 1 lntrodt ct1cri ----- --------- - - - - fh llesPQo ilbillty f lnteNigence The Responsibility of Intelligence U The primary responsibility of intt lligeT1 -e i to assist in pro-tectin the nation from sur-prisc whether b y mililar ' terror and rime tct hnological or ecooomk means The intelli e1lC oinnm- nity accompli J1es this by remaining illert to the changing world envinmmem aod evolving crises and by waming decision-makers of condiriom ind C ents that have national st'Curil ' implica-tions lntcllig ence and policy muM evolve to occomn1oda1 e the changes in this po itC'old War-techno-info em Today's environment is not conduciv to a static and selpiece waming pro1 e S lrC find ourselvc 1 imultancou ly engaged slate of pcatc c1ii is in multiple and war The warnin pnx mui-t adapt to lhc uncertain m1d lluid non- linear namre of the real world It must be orne more contrarian and compeli1ive lo be m I dll' - tive MoM important it mul l hl com an intcgrnte d tnd agile y tem that discar h the old parndigm and emtir ices many source and ideas lot llig -e must look for the sublk hints and indicato r that may be the only warning in an increa ingly uncertain and 1md ar security environment As tilto Unit Stale and it allies dcaw dl ll their anfk 'ti forces intelligern e mu t continue to 'lake point as we tread cautiou ly ioto the future SUrprlse ls the greatest factor in war There are two kinds tacttcal and strategic Tactical surprise Is an ope1atlonal art A skllled unit commander can generally achieve it Strategic surpriH is attained on the polltlcal level - Tom Clancy 1he Nallonaf Military Joint tnt lllgence CMf9r is th6 hub of th6 DoD Indications and Warning system I I - - - --- ----- - - -- - - 6 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED II Introduction A s umplions Assumptions - 1 1uli'- 1111I IC l Th trt nd and prnjt di011 pn 'l'llk'J in thi pnm r mo b 1 ed in parr on thl' fol Im 111g a 'umprion If the' are altl'n d thi n 1 1111c 1h 11 a r 111 11u11' 11 i - rl a onahil w 11f U1Kt'l1ain l'l1ndi- -11uld r1 - 11lt UNCLASSIFIED politically economically and w11i contlnue to I leadership and remain the preferred security partner for the community of states that share American interests Through its readership will deter aggreaslon foster resolution of conflicts and tackle global problems Wilt remain engaged worldwide even in peaCettme American armed forces will maintain an overseas presence So1t1n' Etr '''l'lsfim11 tllto Vatinnal Scoo 11rit S1ratc'_ 1 Y9 ll 'a 1111al filiwry SmtfC'gy 9Y7 C1ml tl1 ' loi11t Strait' ' ' lfr1 i o1i- 9Yf Throughout histo1y it has been the inaction of those who could have acted the indifference of those who should hove known better the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most that has made ft possible for evil to triumph - Emperor Haile Selassie ---- - - - - - - - - - - - - - UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 7 ll Introduction Force Prot liori tmperaflves Force Protection Imperatives L J A scssing llu ' nature and level or the threat i nitical to the safoty and effectiveness of U S military force de ployed around the globe Octerminalion of the se urity envirnnmc nt for t S at e ' abroad indu ling short-term deployment - ornd hmg-term basing will o paramuun L e ng agement using all appropriate in tn1mcnt of natinnal power Thu- the Je d uf contact will likely inlTCa e l ' The Cnited Stales ha between 230 000-240 000 troop- stationed nr deployed in oYer I ' 50 countries On r I 5 001 uf these forces arc deployed in pcal emaking and peacd ecping mi sam I l'hcs ' number - will dci Jine somc ' hat on r till' nc11l LO yi ar however the National Sel t1ri1y Stratc y require U The 1996 aombing at Khobar Towers demonstrated the need for greater force protection efforts U U S Forces are dep oyecJ worldwide 8 to over FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 150 countries UNCLASSIFIED - - -- - - - - - - - - Hio LJ$ - A Strategic pommlty Hiatus - A Strategic Opportunity UNCLASSIFIED lJl Among other implication' - thi unitary natun of lhc Lhrcat from wcap 'n md relar d te hnologies pre ented by Lhe fomler Soviet Union has nnw transformed into a distributed St l of putcmial threats of which Russia is simply nnc This new i ondition gr atly ' implicak s LJ S polides for technological contml and containment making the -ontinued proliferation of advanced ' nnventional weapons and capons of mass dc -truction a cenainty o' o l iltll ll'l Compared to the rc lativel ' stable bi- polar l ' ondition of the Colo w th diversity of multi-polar challenges in this trnnsition petind hm created an extremely comple threat emoiroomcnt Simulumenusly political and tX onomic li mditions h w produl-cd a hiatu in mi tlium largt scale contlkt over the xt k'n vear hut - co1 mtric are downsi1 ing thl ir milit fon cs as th v ' lruggh wi1h in rea- ingly difhi ult donlt'- ti i t th IS pnpulatioo gm -th Tt' ource ' an ity md cconomii gnation _ countriel- redu -c the size of their um J fon 6 lht v will '-' k fll mainwin overall combat capabilil ' by titain- ing innovati e stmtegic chnologi thu improving the apability and lethality of their mailer force - Military planners ill hme tu mak I judicious hoic e a'i n ' lu c l doml stic pnK urcmenl Jedining foreign con umption mxJ utlk -r ' pending impcrath t'l' will limit many countrie- in their pursuit 1lf advanctX tt Chnology LI J Thcst twin Je 'elo n1s--iocreasing techntllogical pot ntial and constr tined defon e spending worldwitk-makl' com ti- tion for ' -crtain advanced militarv 1ech1wlol v - Strategic Opportunity - -- - # and for lither limiti d and - u-ce capability that mm h more imen c The- globul trend to have mor - sophistica1cd w 1ponry crniip -nsate for k Clining force s1ren rh is t' pt odt' l 1n l ontinuc for the nl Xl decade thm by pro iding a s1r 1tt-gic opponuniry for U S planner aml C 1pom developer I posture th tJ S military for th threat cnvim11mt'Jlt l ievonJ O I0 By that time the U S ' Ill cx1 t possible f 'g ional advc ari s a 1 v -dl as 'l llirions and alliam cs of ' 'Ver ti wunuic to dudleng or 11r atl n our intere t Various suprana onal gruup i oulJ aJ o pose a uir t thn lt to U S nariornil intcresb In tho near lt'm1 the one wildcard' in thi o naril1 is North Korea v -llich gi 'en thl right wmlliru1tion of cin um stanl ' e - 'ould pnx luc il mi jor lhc i tcr Var tl111t would in oh I an enonnou conm1imient of LS fon c- The hiatus over the next 10- 15 years in large scale threats provides today's leaders an opportunity to posture the U S military for the threat beyond 2010 fest the responsibility of the occasion Responsibility Is proportionate to opportunity n Woodrow Wiison - - - - - - - - o - - --- UNCLASSIFIED ---- -- - - ----- - - - - - - - - FUTUllE THREAT 1999-2020 --- - - - - - - 9 ll Introduction ----------- - -- -- ------ oo - ---------- - - -- Globai Cfl ' nge Global Change UNCLASSIFIED ' _ - - - - ' - o - o o o o o o o C U - _ - U Whik many new l' halknge are occurring to lay in lhe a of Lhe Cold War lhes challcn c - ar expected to llc come Veu more divcr e and complex beyond lhe hiatus 2010-2020 llklrei- d on the previ- ous page The beginning of wisdom is the definition of terms - Socrates Th l' challt ngcs are m't only reprcscmed ' potential tmn nalional threats which will be addn ssi d in nwre detail in the next chapter but abo by new economic - odet ll and cultural paradigms whose impact arc of a global scale St veral of the mo t prominent ''global drnnge Te addressed bdm11 Terro rism And Rising Crime foti- vations for terrorism will remain ex1rcmc nationalism ethnit tensions n li ion and LT ------ - - ---------- --------FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 10 ' cnlm ltnic and poli1ical di cnfranchisement Stale spon OJ ' hip lf tcm1rism j expected lo on1i11ue Criminal oinds and thl'ir a1 liYities arc likely In bt'come mon ' Ophis ticated and rnmpll x Tht' y will further involve lhem' ' clvcs in C l tensivc kgilim h ' co rs for illicil busi1wss and will seek to influence directly through infiltration mJ manipulation all levels 1f g_ wcmntcnt transnational organi rntions and ou incs c ilJ Global Village Phenomena A postll lated by Marshall McLuhan the global vil- lage hHs emcrgec J from the poi t-indu' ' lrial period It ii t' 1 1lving imo om informationtedmologv-ba o ed OCial order with broad uni' ersat - ffet t ' reducing - omc pointi of ------- - UNCLASSIFIED ------- ---- -- ----------------- I lnlroducllon Giobal Changr frictiun and rnntlict while at the cxal ' crhating others ime time t Li El'Onomic Determinism And Dt mographic Tension Ri -ing population Hld chang mt cxpcctmion combinl ' with real rt sourL c shonfoll I impede pro gn s and constrain prndm lih' growth Con 'erscly in ome -us s e11 eptional economk progres 'I occur-s There is a rowing divi ion Lwe n the have -- and ' h l 'C nots whi h j l'X tl crbatcd in ' pccilit 'ays b_v h 'chnology LI I Critical l'm ertainties There arc critical Cl1n li1iuns t'Xl rnl induding lhe pl1te11tial for largc-'- alc environmental nr narnral disasters pandcrnk di H l' and rl 'volutionary tcchnologic il innovation sud1 a lh ad 'cnt of pt r onal wea rabk cmnmuni alions and automation sy Lems tlwt h IYe dianged mu will i hangl' the sodal order and culture in fi mdanlL'ntal ways Iteratilln- or wave pf these dian c and conditions will rl cur in the future 1U1 Ad anccd Technology Weapons Pro- liferation The Kquisition or older technology hy pmcntial advt r aries and lheir incr ased a 1ility to achlpt advam ctl tedmol l i and to use nwre aJv41m cd militarv ' 1c111 i - k iding to an irn reaseu threat through technology prnlikration The proliferation pf a lvanct 'd Ctmvcmi11nal 'apons and V capon - Of mas dC -lt UC lion l 1Dl will llot11 l lO cnhanL cLl warfi hting capabilitic that 'u11her complicate lJ S L tmtingency planning social order The ri t' 11f in1erna1ional pcr on- alitic v and the U llTO -'ing of popular culture are cwo of the m tny phenomena that arc produ ing such hangc Engli - h hai bt -comc the lingua franc 1 of the era Common compuccr lan U l C arc ilso facilitrninc the hlendinu of i uc x ictal rl'lati1m hips rL'j Multi-Polar RL gional Powt -r Centers Jn the years aht-ad 1w stall i ex pe te l lLl be abl 10 mah h the v -orh lwitlc strength and influcncC' of the Ll S in tcn11s nf c ollecti 'C political cconnmic led1110lngical mililary and rnlturnl power However sdec1 nmions will routin ly exert inlluence within their t 11 re i llls and n tain unit1uc L' 1potbilitk- Ill bo1l1 av i i and frustrate U S policie and int -'rest IU MililaQ Chilian Estrangement F illing recruitment anJ rctt'ntion aver ion 1t1 con criptlon r 'duuion in kJt nse 'pending and nllt'ntfan1 hiGBPh cost of military mod rnization the lado nf per onal re ollcction or i xpcriem e with a m ijor war or rnnllil'I i llld thL' u or military fort L' lu L'Ontrol J11mcsti rircums1 10i c' arc fostering and shaping a _genera1ion th it wi 11 l omc of age in the tll l ten ycars Future ka1 kr - will have a i nilil' antly redul cJ rJcfcn e L'sLanti hnicnt l I Cultural Societal Concl rns A variery 1 LJ 1 Dimini hed Efftch of Time and Sp 1ce Other trend indlllk i hrn1ge - in the aim of limi and - pact' brnug ht abollL by improved communiL aLinn- and 1rnnsportaLi1 1n the fr't' nf n ' regional p1 1wcr 1 Clllt'rs and alliance an l pn s ures fo1m and for change on 'oi ial and L'uhurnl dn um shlllCC' as wl'll a on individual pcPpk of cultural i hanges ha ' had widespread effccl nn regional and glohal ecuriry conditions Competing 1 ' uhurr s and 1llhl 'r ocietal phcnom 'na c omhine ll i iusc i hange in the iU1 Ethno-Linguii tic Pan-Sationalifim Group with re urgcnt X litil al identities me meGBP ing ah lng cthmx enlric ltll't 11 rn1ic rn1d 1 We cannot become what we need to be by remaining what we are -MaxDePres The problems of fhe world cannot possibly be solved by skeptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by the obvious realities We need men who can dream of things that never were - John F Kennedy ------ -- ------- --------- -- ---- --- -----UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 - -- --------------11 II Introduction GtotlOI Change Jingui cic line - that in ome ca - c- parallel trihal or ethnic divl ons dating from antiquity Often these groups are in rehellion or oppo- iLion LO artificially constructcJ political tx'nkrs that divide cuhUn and peoples Political Deconfliction Glob 1I ubiquiwus communication rapid global mm portation ind tran nation i I mas rnt dia are fo ilitating diplomatic effort t l solve potential rnnlfo t - before 1hey llare into ig- nificam iolcm e Conver cly in addi1ion to shortening th decision cycle when decon Hicrion fails in thi environment the result ' ing conflict b likely to he mmc difficult to solve than in the past U Alliances And Supra- 'latlonBI alliances o111d '- oalirion will be more Jk 1t ible in their m mbership and less durable than 1hey were during the Cold War 'ra Glohally an ad 'er ar ial or ompelitivc 1 oalition choillenging or frustrating our own ecurily interests and effort - o er chc nex 1 twenty years is pos' ible Groups Futur llfl Sub-National Groups C0 1litions may not ni ' c - uily he limited 10 stale' N m' lale roups rnuld l Jll ratc for i ommun goals or objccti es iii- we II Th recmrrgenct' of city-states is ilso i onceivable Tht ' ri c of sub-reg ions and clis1rii L ns autonllmnus t ' onomk-poli1ic 1l bodie - -will rnntinue over the same period The world wil1 have increa ingly Lmnsparenl border ' C Renegade States A group of nation- and transnational cntitie have engaged in ac1ivi1y that places them outside the commonly accepred intrrna1ional nom1 f behavior Extreme violen e terror and military or para-military force are frequently involved In some ca o es this ph - nomenon is as ociated wi1h organilcd criminal 'Toups that engag in act- that undermine governarn IU l Technology Information Age Though power is not a tlnite re ourcl it is showing sigm of J dynamism that is shifting focus to e onomk and technology as the L hief venues for ih exerdse Under uring both will be the ability to quickly gather exploit and use infom1ation Science and technology mulHply around us To an increasing extent they dictate the languages In which we speak and think Either we use those languages or we remain mute - J G Bollard - - - - --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 12 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFfEO - - - - - - - - - - - - - -------- - - Overview Overview t i Jn the post-Cold War era the former Soviet Lnion and the bipolar nature of superpower competition han been replaced by a more diverse and multi-polar set of generalized entities and conftict conditions Man - of the trt nds influencing the futurl' security en ironment can also be e perted to extend beyond those of a slrictl ' military natun Some of these trends can haH far greater inHut nce than furce 'apabilitics and in many cast S can take years to reveal their full impact on security These global issues are e oident throughout the world but often are largely manifestt d i n denloping regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia-regions where people and gonrnments t picall ' experience reater 'Ulnerability to external forces I ti We should therefore anticipate an environment in whkh issut s such as' economic and politkal viabilit ' demographic and resourre stress health and climate problems and assorted challenges stemmin from lhe proliferation of drugs weapons and technologies coexist intertwint and change seemingly at random What is t'Vident for tht' future is that all of these factors demonstrate a greatt r leu I of romplexity Somt Impacts appear to be instantaneous while uthers languish for generations The threat of termrism will remain a persistent problem gi en the open nature of the United States is well a our presence throughout the world Tht U S despite its prominence and leadership will witness un increasing challenge from 'arious transnational groups both legal and illegal adding to lhe diplomatic and tl unomk fray currently e-xtant among nations over hundreds of seeminglJ insurmountable issues The spread or diseases such as AIDS the distribution of waler and the migra tion people are but a few of the additional complex issues we face globally or L''l The str is already evident on the l'urrent securit em ironmcnt and quite poNsibl will worsen over the Dl Ur term During the foreseeable f'uture these broad and l'Omplex dangers will continue to rep sent a formidable barrier to the emeq ence of a stable secure and prosperous international order and will pose significant implka tions fur U S military planning and force deployment Thus we must maintain focus acros ' the i ectrum of global issues Stupendous Issues are unfolding before our eyes and we are only specks of dust lhaf hove settled In the night on the map of the world - Winston Churchill ----- ---------- ------UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 13 Ill Gloool tssues O' ld A sessme'lt - - - - - ----- - --- - - The Economic Environment llii Free-market will t'Conomics be embraceLI in various fonns - not m C 'Ssar ily in COll ruem e with the L' S model acros- mm h of the lohe lf Busine's and industry will l ontinu 1 marked d_ynamism th ll will lc ud muhinationiil orporatiom to hl'Cmne gloh 1l --- t r true tr msnalional - corporntiuns A mobik global workforce which is deYeloping will be the foundation Regional economil bh s or C'conomic leag uc'i will mcrg 1ts il result of im re i cJ c11mpe1 ii ion l Ad 'ancemem in 1clcrnanmunications and l nmpming which n hcred in the informatili1H '- hnology era ill continue to hangc and f' 'Ol 'C at a fasl pac c Ekctwni l ommcrl c will become the t mJar l for trad ' Government will see their span 11f comrol over rhto genl'rnl population chalkn eJ Individual may 'it ' g rcau r indi pt'll dcn e if ownul1 'nt fall llChind Lf 1 lnfonnation will oc rl ' idi ly available instantaneou t l ' - rnost of 1hc gh tbe By ' 000 there wi J he approximati lj 200 million iniemet user worldwick with the nurnbl'r of web si1to1 doubling i vi ry 50 d11y Diflkuhi s will arise from 'infonnation ovcrltiall of untihl 'reLI dat i ew l'ondition will com I th tu que tion our concepts and helii h i will not Ile sure ahout what W - ce hear read 1 1r o en- e in the future bec iu' t' i11fom1ation and Le hnolog y will nl K 1ify cin umstanC 'S in radii al way We will ht oconw a hypercultt1re actin in ''teehnotimi md cyherspac'-' more thom real time and actual - pacl' llml to l lime will Ol 'c11nte morl relative to tlw spc1 d and pac 1 1 f tCl 'hnolog_y The most incomprehensible thing about the universe is that it is comprehensible at all - Albert Einstein --- -- ------ -- -- ----- - ---- 14 FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 ----oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooou-- -- UNCLASSIFIED ------------- -------------- ----Th9 Economtc Envitonrr ent UNCLASSJFIEO -China U Shown are forecasts of total GNP using exchange rates and GNP based on purchasing power parity PPP for selected countries Obviously no economy will enjoy smooth uninterrupted growth - these forecasts are averaged over 20 years rather than attempting to predict year-to-year performance exchange rate China PPP -us _Japan exchange rate oooo Japan PPP II Rueala exchange rate Total GNP $billion Russia PPP 16 14 12 8 - 6 - o aoo ' ' - oooooooo o' ' 4 2 0 - 10 oo1i111ooooo _ 11 '' 1ollo ll 11110 111o 1 IIoooo io- - Im oo 2000 l l l ' 11111o1o1oo tll ll UIUlloUlffloo' o 2005 uooUunoo 2010 -- 11 n1uau11 - ooHlllon1uu1o1111 2015 2020 U A nu jor difticulty in comparing GNP U China for e xampk a s h1 he the between countries il- how lO convert curren- world's large 1 economy in 020 by PPP cies Converting by currency exchange hut small by exchange f'Jlc conversion rates tends to unden Stimate economies that Each conversion how part of the picture are not fully open and market-based uch but the truth i somewhere in between In a China's while exugg1 rating an economy addirion China' huge population ensure like Japan's with a trong 1 urrency and high ii per capila wealth will remain low no domestic prices They ali o depend heavily matter how it is measured on the exchange rate chosen and may not reHe t underlying economic trends Con- lJ Japan'o pro - pe1 ts depend on how it ver ion ba- ed on pun hasing power parity deals wilh the structural rools of ii current on rhe other hand may owrstate the real 1 risi and with demographic shift a o its strength of developing economie and is population agei overt he next 20 years very problematic a o ii basis for long-range forec tsts UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 15 Ecor omic EnYi cf t'f1'3r'JI UNCLASSIFIED - China exchange rate - - China PPP GNP per Capita $ thousand -us 90- _ Japan exchange rate 80 Japan PPP 70- _ Russia 60- exchange rate ' Russia PPP - - - 50 _ 40 30 20 oooooooooooooooooo IZ - ooo loo 1nolll1IUt1o'' 10 o ' 'o 'Io' ' '' '' ' 'oo o - o - - unuuoo ' 11oo 111 tHUlll t H l H 1 ' 0 - 1'1o-lR l 1r1 P1 I 2000 2005 2010 2020 2015 Soo Jrce lf dotu Wof-d f ank V'iorid DEt11elcpmer t lr d1 ators 1Q98 UN Wor1C1 Popu1Q 1on Prospec s 1t- e 190o fhereotter Chino 8'it declirHlQ tc 5% Revision Ass 1- l pt1ons liS rt GNP growth k p ir J %througl 200 Russia I ' rlsirrJ ro 51 r Thi foreca- t assum full -ucce s in ho1h elforts failun will produce a mm h lnwer GNP for Jap m b ' 20 0 ll GNP forecast for 01her key i ounlrics arc summarized belov ha- e I nn exd1 mgc rate f mvcn ion in con t mt 1996 dollu projcctcl1 from World Bank 1996 ti ure ' Rel 'ent g Jobal tinandal crises lrn 'e ha l a ncgaLiYe impact on global growth ratt' pr j t tion'io Por the near lcrm lht' rate f gmwth should m cragc J 15'- and N -yoni J 21XIO gmwlh in real terms hlluld avera t around 7' f- UNCLASSIFIED l FUTVRE THREAT 1999 2020 CON5l ' A I A II Globul Issues uncl Assps nients The Security Environment The Security Environment NATION-STATE TRENDS Ul State ' will continul to be the pri- 1muy politica I entity however supranationaJ group will male their presence known and will play an im reasing rnle in international deci - ionmaking The rt emergeoc e of dty-state i conceivable The ri of sub regions and district' as 1utonomom ec momic-political bodies will conllnue o oer the same period The world will have incrca- ingly transparent border Dissolution Fragmentation Failure I KOJovar Albanians prepare to vote part ol lho prelude to th confllct in J999 lJ The nation- late will remain the primnrv institulion of political idelllity Howeve authority and allegiance inc1-easingly arc being chalknged and eroded resulting in more frequent insrarn e of political dii solution and failed stales oA foiled state is one where the go ernment is unabk to funl tion and no effective state is left as in the case uf Somalia o Political dissolution or re1 olotion may come about through a regime change a change in the ystem of government or political fragmentation as with the Sovil t Union Yugoslavia and Cztx hoslovai ia lJ 1 Pre sure on the socklal and gvwrn- 111en1al fabric of nation statcs will grow over the next two decades Thi- pressure will come from above through globali1 ation of the world ec momy and tnmsnalional and multinational inlilitutions and frum low as retlccted in the grtlwing power and intluence of region citie subnational groups and indii -iduah In the developed world this chunging ondition r ti s the pll' sil' ility Lhat one or more allvanced modem state will weaken 1U to the point where di solmion or c so ion may be the preferred political and conomic solution Though unlikely ome talcs may de1eriora1e to a point w re they are unable to function bringing on failure Sul h an event could be profrmndly destabilizing for a region and uite possibly the world f fflfJ State failure will be more conunon in the developing world ln the future demographic and rl 'source infrastniclure pre sure - in concert with poor governance will increa'iC th likelihood of frag1nentation The el 'onomk interdepcrnience that already exi ts worldwide ha proven to be both a benefit and hindrance to state viability Though not a given economic failure ---------------- could hccoml ' a precur m to tate failure TI1e collap of so1nc kcv rbk o tales I LJ would ha c profound implkaiions for lhe Uoih 't I States ' b 1 1 4 c -- ------- -------- ------------ - - --- ----- ------ --- -- -------- -- - - -- --FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 17 ------------------ ---------Th -- -- -- - - - -- --- 5'1curily Environment Alliances And Coalitions UNCLASSIFIED New AUlances May Arise - - Sino-Russian - Pan-African - Sino-Asian - Latin Amec Can - Pon-ISlamic - North American - Europeai groups - Transnational group cooperation LT Fmurc alliances ant I coalitions will he more flexible in their memberships and even leso durable than they were during the Cold War era nc c an ima ine vcraJ Jll Ssible alli- ancct or coalilions that if formed would pose significam challenges to ll S se1 uril interests U Boris Yeltsin and Jiang Zemin seorch for common gtOUnd to Improve economic and IJ liticat relatfons Union members have begun acling as a bloc with alternative Mllu1ion t to U S Upponed plans w s1cm the wave of ernnomic crises These motioni against or in contrast to U S policy in the variou world institutions present no security threat in themselve but do hamper U S influence in resolutions lreati conventions and other decisionl' One of the greatei- 1 detri- b 1 1 4 t J a y a nmtec a versaria or competitive coalition cha1lenging or fru trating our own security ntcrests and efforts is possible during nex t 20 years Such a coalition would not fk 'C rily be limited to - tat c f'Km-statc group$ '-'Ouk I C lQperale for common goals 'r objective - ments that can arise i from a UN S wity Council decision - or indecision - that ii oul of step with U S security oals and objectiv s The lack of overall IMF success in i temming the Ru sian economic crisis and the arreamge of LT S lJN duel have emboldened both friend and roe to buck U S leadership Prolong d degradation of U S influence could damage long term perceptions of l S lcaderi hip Supranotional Institutions U Of the emerging supr- mational hMitutions the lJ nited Nationi lntemational Monetary Fund IMF and World Bank exert the moi t influence on the United States Correspondingly the U S slill has signitkanl influence in all three institutions although it i experiencing increased challenge to its position Pa11icu1arly in lhe l N decled member Mate ha -e become antagonistk over ll1e perceived singularity of LT S machinutions on global and regional issue In 1he IMF European U Some UN operations such as UNSCOM can become clrcumstanHally lnfegtol to U S foreign po icy ------------- ----- ---- --- 18 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED - - - - - - - - - - - T re Sec1 1titv Environment UNCLASSIFIED Top 7 Designated Contributors to the t N Top 5 Contributors to IMF United Stales J8 25' f Uniled States 25 'if Japan 17 98% Ja n Germany 9 63% Germany 5 67% France 6 49r Fram e 5 IO t Italy 5 39% UK 5 1 t UK 5 67rA- 5_07r Russia 2 87% 1998 Total IMJo Resources S 19 billion 1998 UN Operating Budget l'h l ' S ConGBP r i lhc prtl ' ' of rc Jul in this ontrihu1i11n 1c1 0' ' 1 11111ini nt nn n l 1 i11 lx1d 1 lyml lll 111 $IM bi Hon lhc - ll U IMF DlrecfOr Michel Camde55Us ot Fronce hos been di1ecfly involved In international economics since 1966 From the Andes lo Zambia Comde us has wielded the ffnancial clouf and savvy ol the IMF As a globalist he contintun lo strt1ss the need tor a united International ellOll fo make the global economy funclion better while at the same time frustrating national agendas - such as in Russia - With pe1ceived heavy-handedness Non-atate Groupa 1U1 N1111-stall' roup --- p 1r1kularly 11ungon omn11 111ill org i11i1 ati ins I NGOs J -ha c ilh l'CCISC 1 in number Jfl' l'Jo Crtin ITH ll'l' intcrnali lnal influcn1 c 11111 ar c hioitin g rc itcr trnm national l' Xlfl ra1iun The l' 11i1cd Nations j inm asingly n lyin on ' C iOs 111 a'si l in its 1x o11omic_ sodal m l cl'urity missions J of 191JX nwrc than 1500 Nfi h lww l ' 'J -P1M1ltmi' c s1 1t11' and 1t l1 o1sl another 6 000 ire rcg tcre I wirh the l N The nl ' inl inllucnct ' nf no11 1a1 groups ha 1'1l11h licndi1 - and dr 1 hacks Many of thc L' group' l an lill nl t 'lh whcrl' m ommcnts fall short hut 1hdr prcs t '11' 't' in a giwn area l'r dn umst rm ha 1111ctimc - increased thl' complcxit nf the corxllitical em 1ronmcnt In future s curity n 0 ironmc111 they will he u ful in pm 'iJ ing humanitarian inlh1stru tU1 ' mid information to fal ilitatc pe accmakiug operalioll ' 1hus alh1wing military pc1- mrncl 1n forni un - e urit and J'll'ill 'L' cnft m enicnL UNCLASSIFIED If everyone contemplates the Infinite Instead of fixing the drains many of us will die of cholera -John Rich U International organizations such as the Red Crescent haV9 lnctBO$ing intruence on U S decisions concerning Operations Ofher Thon Wor 00rw Peacek eeplng operations 1lJI Thto han in_g i 'L'om1111i1 L'll irnnmL nl 1ht 1 rnlv in nik of the 11mi1111- tatt md the' growing i11tluencl' of 1 uprnnational institution antJ lll'll- tate group 1rL all fanor o cuntrihuting tn the den lopmcnL of I 11 sc rnrity paraJi m FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 l9 Ill Global Issues and Assessments -------- - ''' ' ' '' ----- --- - UNCLASSIFIED NonCompliant Competitors Toward An Ty Uncertain Future OF THE NEW SECURITY PARADIGM lJ l Thl' pa 1 ten y ars have lx Cn marked by t ynamil hange and great uncertainty Th next d 1 -aJc is likel to he equally 'IO because 1hc ha ic engines of 1um10il rt main esscmially unchange l The voh1tile mix of globo pliliti tl c onomic ocial t hno- logical and milit iry conditions will continue to b1 ing stres lo the international onicr 'loio condition 1 irn11us1anL e or ptlwcr is likely to emage owr the next I020 years 1ha1 will omchow lran ccnd these ---------- -- 20 ___ sour e tif instahility and k 1tl to a mon stahk glohal order Categories of the New Paradigm fU During the next two decades the new chilllcnges will bring ibout the c volulion of a new S ' 'urity p ir i li m--onc io whid1 the United State fa e a g nernli1cll sd nf pilrtners L0111pctitors and po1 111ial ad ' rsaric ____________ FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 --------- UNCLASSIFIED llf Global Issues and Assessments CtMtpcralin IHlrlncrs Thc- c arc lilll s thal l ncrnlly hare l f S values w1d in1crcsh anl l l an t'IC vil'Wcd us military illlic Non-compfoml Compt filors St iks that do 11111 i onfonn lo U S value anti intc or1 '' b but arc 1101 militilry adwn itrics The 111 nol l 11g 1 i ' in direct viok ll e 1g ains1 F S inh -rcsls hut may cngagi in policies or Jets that l'omprontisc or ndan- r U S g1 afi and ohjccliVl'S 1 ncrally Rcm- udes S1aic th 11 l'onform hi v 1lucs and intcn si 1hat arto l ontrary 10 1h11S ' 111' tlw U S hut lad tlw cl nnmnic ol' military wheR with 1l 10 al li dy nppm c the U S - dwrsarics St ik- 1h 1l eng_ ll l' in mtill'1 C'plahk hehavior ln oquc111ly i11v11h i11 miliwry for1 l 111tl 'iokun Thl's1 late l o11 - ri1ull' Cllrl'l'llL or pnh n11al l 'lWlllil''i 1 alllsl wh olll the L S 1m1 1 corhidl r lhc LN of military l Hl 'l' l ' J llll' ysl m gcn rakd hy thb Ill paradi m is dynamic and tlw stale 'ithin ii arc i11 cunio 1 1114 in1cradio11 Th4 ' ollL' tllll' of Ill ' parnllig 111 thcnN IVl s at' ' lluitl amt i11 some 4 a - c not 11n11ually cM hrsin At any parti ulal' 01rn1ll nt a stall' may I a t ompliiml pa1111cr and a 11011- ompliant compt olitor 'ir i 'llln l m1i illy Although ii i- 1101 pch illlc for U 7he U S is working closely wilh former Soviel satenites and republics such as Ulhuonia incorporaling them more into an evolving Eutopeon security architecture a ' IHL1 Ill hl' a l'l'llt'g_ 1Jc ur adH r ary mid - - - - - - - - - imullaiwously lo lx anything dsc ii j p11's1hk ho mmc from l'l'll uaddmh r ' ary - talus lo so111dhin lcs nml'nmtalional o- r lillll' Similarly tllL' l'm imnmt'lll Ill wlm h Ll - Sl' ' c' i ntl'ra 1 11 tll'lllatcs t'lln lomlly The l' 'oh-ing run1111u11i1y of natiPn ill inlllll'tKc the al lion 111' indi' ic lual ' ' 'amt also Ix inllul'nl cd hy th m 111d ill all I1111 cnk 'rg 111 y toom lition' could haH a pm-li1uml impact on llrl' interal li ' dynarnk of tlw 'Y ll' m ''Let us never negotiate out of tear But let us never tear to negotiate - John F Kennedy lnaugu1al Address U New recruits conclucl drill ot an unidentified Hamas fraining camp UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 21 Ill Global Issues and Assessments SIMULTANEITY li The dynumic im I um crtain nalun of the m rgiug -ccurity p irndigm mali c Ill' idc11 1h 11 iingk l vcnh will hi1r1 11 in i oh11111n ind L lll he dcal1 'ilh in 1 - iuguhir m mncr more unlikdy than ever II is likdy that scvcrnl - cparalc cvcm or l ' Titkal l I diti1111 will on ur 11nult tn1 ou1 ly aml lhl' cffc L of their i111ul1 111cou l l'l lllTcn e will he c 1mp lund1 d and lllal nili d Cl 1 Ant1cip 11 in ii tlm a1 l nviro1111ll'IU in hid1 thCl'L ' will l k ' mull ipk situ 1Lio11 l'l '- uinng a llm ct mililary rc' Oll 1 ' i - lTili- 1 al lo l'Onlin11c111 y 11uJ 01ll'rnlion rl 1 tla1111i11g Thl' glnhal l llt ll _ l'lll 11t pm tun o llf Lhc 1 1 s military 011 a11y giwn 1Jay already limi1 thl' f111no 1v 1ili1hk h rl ' pond illlllll'di 11cly lu an 1K W c ri- i FolJini tlw - L ' limil11Liom into c rhb nn'-l 01x raliom1l planning ill h1 Tu ial 10 nsurc tlml llw plan an h1 11h r afo1k and ach1 'ahk and l'Ould haw in imp Kl oil our llh rnll forl'C sm1'-'lur in thl future IU l l urthi r l Cl'hating thi' prohh 111 lhc glohal impact of ll'chn11logy lhl i1111 grn1i1m of 1 'l'Ont 11nii S s1 t1h th o hlcnding of ornto cullun ' ' ' th1 cfkc 1 of l1lllg r 111 c weapon and I h ' l Of f l11 0 ll1111lal i lll hilW l Clll 1rihu1c Ill 1 n1 o1wor 1 d worhl ' ' l volvin tt1 o1 1 1n o our l'YC 'I The nct 1rt l d cl'kct nl' 'l 'vcr 1I for C '1 'll nl my I onditiun anJ l in 11111 - 1a11L i II n ll1l1 11nJ he pr11hkn1 ol' -i111111lancity proJ11cing f'ar grl'Hll'f 111 l mnr1 'i ni lk 1111 lllbl 'llllcnn 0 UNCLASSIFIED Global mobility and force structure adaptability are key facets of the U S All ied response mechanism 22 FUTURE THREA T 1999-2020 UNCLASS FlED ----- - - - - - - - - - - - - Tron not1onol Issues Transnational Issues Teel'lno Terrorism UNCLASSIFIED Techno Regional Surprise Wars Larger Confliets Absence of Leverage Terrorism I M ulllnationol OPS Subnatlonar Umbrella 1ntruencin9 Govt M11ito11es Ri Chem1cor I Trons onal Crime e101ogico1 Use B y Subnationals New Arecs ln5Urgents Towa rdA11 Uncertain Future 1 Li j lilllc hani tl1e l nit d Stall ' 1 011fro111 1 Sm it't-like global miht ll Th n ill i h tltt'ng uuring the Ot' t 20 year' l 'f- lhelt'' '- thr at' and 1hrl 'atcning rn11J11i1111' tnJ 1y and 01h r' will t'm rg - mer 1imi fony of th 't' thr a1' will 1ra1N l 'nd t' i- t nati1m 1I hounJarie' thuo their o rnrr nci wi 11 h i tran o nationuL md often g lub il im1 lii i111111' A r pre- i ntati 't' ampk of 'udl 1hr a1' 111d 1111di11on 1h 1w mean' Ill lll-111du'i' 11 1 J j ll pi tcd in 1h thine raplm Jo 1 11f the C' i uc ''ill Ix' addrc''l'd Ill d 1a1 l 1n tht' hillowmg 'c-ct ion Tllll''- '''llo'' 1h 11 ni ir dire1 tly relall ' lol fL11L11 u111h 1 'u '11 1' 111forma1ion irfar a11d 111h'llli11nal 1 11nllkt ''ill 1't adi lrl ' -d in Ctl rl'kT I There is no independent variable upon which all other variables depend There are only Interrelated variables boundless In complexity Faced with this maze of causal lnnuences unable even to trace all their Interactions the most we can do is focus on those that seem most revealing for our purposes and recognize the distortion implicit In that choice - Alvin Toffler UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 23 Ill Global Issues and Assessments POPULATION GROWTH UNCLASSIFIED Populatlon by Region Oceania I Jilin America Euroiw - North America As a Latin Americ1 Africa liiSOl 4l I Hy llll' l ' tr 2000 lhl gluh 1l popuh1lil ll wi ll ju - l l' w1 l 6 hi l liun Tlw population j _ l' l'k l h 'd II ri Ill ah11u1 7 ti hillinn r holll 11 1 of llil' illlT 'UM' ill l11ui 1 and 'hi11 1 hid1 lt l t'lht'I' 'ill a 11u111 h1r 1h11u1 o i' r of lhl ' nrld by 0 11 Ul' l lll' Ill l -'Pllla1iu11 B1r1h nntml pr il tin ' ill llt' in 111 -lu t 1h ir imp 1l r 111 'hin 1 India ilh 111 appan llll indti 'l'lih' prn ram 111 plan' will n1111i 1111 o 111 l'l' i1- pop11l 11io11 spiral upward Soml 9 1 ul tlw I ilnh s pup111i11 i1111 n o lh j l''illl'l'IL'il II l 1h pl 1 l in thl pulll't'r n ui1111 Onl o ill 1 ur in th o 1kwlnpl d 11rld whik tk'i ui l' IX' cd Ii 1r Eu rup1 R11 ia and lap m Rapid 1'opulati1111 g ni lh ill l' '1l'1 'rha1 o dr 1dy diflirnl t l'ondi1i11ns in m my parl' 111' lhl dl'h'lopini v orht ILoailin h1 m11n in -l ihilily l n e i1 i11 1til' tkn lopcd world ' ill kad lo l'I 11111lhl r Sl'I of 'Dl'i i l prohk1th frrnn inalk jllOlll' m dic1I i 1rl to il ing wrl for - Thl' n oLod for rl'pl 11 o111 111 w 1r l r will play Ill innl'a'i pa11 in l'ulul'l' '1l d j 1m 1 111 in11niur 1lio11 p11lii ics in ' 'orlh ml ri1 a and r uropc ' 11 ' ''I h UNCLASSIFIED Most Populated Countries 2000 2020 1 Chino 1 3 billion 2 India 1 billion 3 United States 278 million 4 Indonesia 213 million 5 Brazil 169 million 6 Pakistan 156 million 7 Russia 146 million 8 Nigeria 129 million j 9 Bangladesh 128 million r 10 Japan 126 million l _ - ' _ - - 1 China 1 4 billion 2 India 1 2 billion 3 United States 322 million 4 Indonesia 264 million 5 Pakistan 248 million 6 Nigeria 215 million 7 Brazil 208 million 8 Bangladesh 171 million 9 Russia 135 million 10 Mexico 125 million l'lri o' ' '' ' 1 ro 1 chw 11111ta 111ro fi11 an ' ' rJi 111111npal 'd dnlfh bnit1c 11 1 10111 l l S 'I I lr ' - l Tll IS L'l 'S 1 or thl' po1 1111t1I impau r f rht' rmn11g rr o11 i11 i11f1o11iliir in 1J1111 1 GBP gum 'f hl' 'I' f1111on mild n 111 ' tluo fJ tJ g oh i1o011ul 111tlf1 _ r l 1'tl'il 24 In 11 10111 l r FUTURETHREAT1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED Ill Global Issues and Assessments UNCLASSIFIED Urbanization In the Developing Regions utin Amena a Caribl INn llidcllo East --i Megacity 30 million or more people in a contiguous urban area i l Hy 020 o ' r half of the 11rld pc1puhni1111 1 ill liw 111 urhan an a Thi gn1 in urha11i1 1tion will hmc jgnilic 1nt irnp KI in 1h o d1 n-lop111 world here inf1w 1rul' 11m i a ily 'lrl''-' l'd 1orl and 1mm 1hi f tlL' or cilil'' will lkll rminl till' fatt' of nal i 011 and n io11 Ead1 year omc '0- o 1111 Ilion 111' 1h world 1w1 r1 st f'll'11plc mm fr 11n rurnl lo urhan on induding the Third World' mc at oi1ic Thc l' hi h rntc llf urt iani1 at1011 111 an 1hat rutlll ' otr fan j mor - lit cly 1ha11 in tlw pa - l to 01 cur in urhan areas 11 abo 111 o1ns th twahh and - amlatit'll infra 1ru 1urcs may 1-il 11 l'l' w hdmcd lc iding to incr L' l'd mfrctiou and chwni1 di t a c Ttw c omlitinn' UNCLASSIFIED rcdul 11nldu rh it unJ 1 tard n 11ional Jc l' Ii lpllll'llt FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 25 Tu m motior ol tssul's RESOURCE SCARCITY There is no clear indication of long term crisis in the supply of any critical resource but temporary and localized shortages and distribution problems may cause instability and conflict I l Mow hy 111divi lunl noLtio11' to control fr 'sh al r 'upplic- alf ' 1Jy nnirihutc 10 n gi11no1I ten- ion- Futtirt l'Oll tlil ts ar inat asi11gly lil dy h pnp11latin11 gmwth and imprm ing living stcmdard inl'l Cit l th1 dcma nd for fresh water tl l The worldwide de ma ml for ti sh h i' t'ieen rising ' lCadily wi ll - ccurity implirntions for nations tho Lt dcpt'rJd 0111h1' linilL' but renew ahlc rc oun c Worldwi lto 13 of th 17 prin dpal li hing 111nc 11 ' dcpktcoI 1 ir in steep decline Unlc properly mana cd pmhkm If wasn't raining when Noah built the ark - Howard llutf owr tishr ril s m-e c pCdL'd t o woN n in tlw future tx-causc of imen e c11mpL'ti1ion among fishing ilccC'i and fishing m1tio11 The demand for 011 H mJ cacah ill abo ri ''-' Utd train pro lw tion and di trihution - y - tcms parlk-ulmly in lhc dl ' doping wurlJ Tlll ll 'elin oil or g1 1in yield water depictinn and pt pulation lmmth will cxm crnatc the pmblcm Hy 2020 chc d l'loping world viii I Ct11N1n1ing roughly 6 I of the world's lllt'al - Upplics The chall ngc will bc in nmimainin 1imcl ' di - tribution wi1hm11 1'ignilkmll l m term 1 fo rup1io11 t ' l Srr ucgk milll r ils anJ ncrgy r1 ospurcL '' present yd another prnlikm with national 'ccurity o 'Crtonc- The com eJ1lrtllion of l ey n s1 urn 1 in u11 1allfe rl 'gi JOS_ - ud1 as the Pcr ian Gulf the Caucasus and c ntr 11 and W ' 'sl Africa will tx of gl'l' ll l conomi w1d politi1 al concern Hi h Jcpcndc1l c on a rcginn -uch a Ille Gulf' ill nh1 i e he world 1 conomy vulncrahlc to tcmpor iry political--militar 'hod Li It i - rca 1111abk lo a - urnc 1ha1 1 omc dcficicncii ' in gl 1hal rc oum s will he onor nml' hy new or a lvanccll lcchnolo ir 26 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 U Relief opetafions in fhs failed stale of Somalia have been underway tor fhe better part of a decade The underlying problems in infrastructure and 1esource distribution ore certain lo remain problematic well into lhe ne# f decade Meanwhile fhe conflict con tinues as 'L 'll a refinement in agricultural pr ic 1i cs Jodu' lry and 'cirntc arc Ct ll tamly l '-Xploring more dti i1 on1 Vay ro e lrn1_ t and mili L' cxisling n s11urL l ''- But r _o -oun c oluti1m1 arl' l lkn c 1x n ive_ tochn11logi call_y chalkn ing dirtieult anJ illll ' -con'uming to imph rntont Thm lm -1 anll rq innal rl' tiun c t arcilil' will rcruain i pmhkm n ll into the fo1un HEALTH ISSUES U I Glohally health care fl 'ailahility and ae cs ihilily are uni wnly di lrihuk'd md ill r main so lndU - lfialiA'll c11111111i - i njoy rhc highest 1 andanls 01' health Cilfl' C l'J whik many deh lopin cnunt1ic are unahlc l l ll t'l t 'CI the IHOSI h 1 ic health nci d of t11 ir ciliA'lll lkallh arc ddiwr in dcvd opin tnu111rit'' will 11 l i1npmYc app1 d 1hly llld in m my asc - will lctcrior tk further l ecausc of al ka t ome of he following UNCLASSIFIED o Poor l 1im1mil' o E ln 1111 Im pl'I i apiw lil ahh 1 ari C j'k' llditurc o ln iuc4ua1c health are inrra 1rul 1url im l11di11g 111 ' lfll tlity pcrsconnd mu poor org mi fation and health 1 are fol ilitii o Lid tif f'K1lilk il il l to mal c j nili- G lllt dliHl t ' o 0 crwhclming niorhiJil and 111ur1ality from l'lllk111k i llld cpiLli mil inkl tiuu - di'l'lhC' Infectious Diseases i 1 1 C11111plaL'l'lll 'Y hl tl'll infl ti11u dj c t'I ' ha- L'llltT Cll Imm t 11 t il i urnptit11h thill 111ii n1l11 - h I ' hii1Jl1gil 1Jly 1ationa1 targets amJ 1h 1t di ca 11uld l'l'11tai11 gl n r iphi1 al I ''-'lllll' ll'l'Cll Thl i uncnl and I i dy lutun 1optlkllli11hoJ il al i111ation 'how the fall 11 y Pf lhl I ' '11111pti1111'o Of 1hl 1 tim llL'd 2 1111lli1111 lk 11h' in J 997 inr c1 1iou' di co 1 c' k1 I al I '-' lll lri ' lli' Jcath I ill in 1t k'a l Ii 111illi11n p opk Al ka'I 9 pri j Hl Jy unknown di l 'Wol'' hoL' I ' ippcarl 'd _t fohally jll 'l I Q7J aud ll l'll ktll1 ll om ha'i l '-Cllll' l'gl d ulll 'll ith lh ' dru r o- i 1an1 i or in dl 'adlilor ll1rn1 1I 1 Th l'lll1 'rg m po1thn l ns g 1 ni r 1lly an n 11 nc I l 'H1h 1 ll hut hc1 111w rwwly r1 oc11 niA d nr pn 1d illh pop11k1tin11' h1'1 ' 1ll -' nJ' d1angl'' 111 1 l11nm1 orct o l'tillllrc 1 '11 i1- onn11 111 rl'ligi1111 t1 l h1111h1 and till ' g loh 11i t 1li1 m 11r hu 111 i11 f 111imal 1prod11l't' I l ' llll'l'gillu ullf 1 ' Clll 'l'gin i11kdit1 I' di' 'l' I''-' ir1 111 11 u11i o r -o1ll r1 x ogni1 1 d ' ii k i t variahk' 111 1r 1101 olLlnuht threat IIo ul11hal 111d 11ali1on il 'l'l 'llfil llu111ani1aria11 'ilt1 t1i11n' r1 quiri11 t s and 1'0iditi11n 111ilit iry i11l1 'l'h'llli1111 will o cala11 pl idll - 1kpl11 1 'll IPrL I '' 11 i11'- rl 1 l d ri 1 of 111f1 1 1iou lli i a'c' when '11pporlill l'11111pk 1 11111in cn 1x-r 1li11m in dl d11p1ng 11'11i1111 Infectious diseases will continue to be the number one cause of death worldwide UNCLASSIFIED 1997 Global Deaths by lntoctious Disease and Method of Transmission Person-to-person Infectious Disuse Deaths 17 million Insect Some UNCLASSIFIED FUTURETHREAT1999 2020 27 Ill Global Issues ond Asse$Sments AIDS in the 21st Century 1 U Z1111hahwt prm'llk - ii Ji- turbi11g ampk 1l l J Al ka- 1 JO mi llillll Jll opk tTL' nm intt l 'h 'll With GBP lt10l t l llllllllllllldl'liL'il' ll' Vin i - Inv I worldwill ' unk J um i- tuuJl J 11 l will dk within thl ' ll 1 5- JO ar o ' 1o 'l 121 milli1m 1 of thL ink IL'd in Suh-S ihar 111 fri a o o Tubl rl ulu'h o-inko 1i1111 ill L'llll1im1 ' 111 aL- 1111111 for II koa1 1 ork' lhinl of lhL dl'iltlh o EtfcL t1 c 11ati1111 1I puhliL h ihh l' duL 111 111 pruura111' i11 Tb 1il 1111I 11111 l anda h t t d1 m1111- 1ra1cd hat h d1 1n 1r1 l111ma11 lx-lw i ll' lll ' inL id1 111 L 1 'illl he - hn lod and pcrhafh rl' 'l''L 'd 1l i W11rlthv1lk 1hc nunthL r of pl'npk with I l Vi lllS ill ni11lit1Ul' lei in rL'il'l' 1'11r 11 k 1 t i1111thL r d1 l 11 h o lo upw mh 111' 10 111illio11 HIV ll S ill he nmlr 1lll d 111 ind1hlriali1L'J n1un1ril'' hL'l ' Hl --l' of alf11rdabk lhL rap ollHI dlc1 liH puhlt du ation pl'uuralll 11 tl1 ' ch1pin 1 01111tri luHH 'L'r th prnh km po cd tiy - ll S ill tic lar '' 1rw Sm11l1 and S11uth1 oa 1 s1a ''ill c pcricm 'L ' an l''l pl11 - io11 1n 111 V i nh t tilin r 0311 1nillionl in th1 111 l Ill car' ith llW'I d ln ill lhL' fl1lhmin 10 'l '4lf l ' rai 11 a 1J Hd 1ru ar1 111 oadL Ll for sC 'L'rc - IDS l pidl'lllil ' and us ia lll J ' 'lil I ro 11 I II I ' Ill kL' Ii llll i t1 Suh Saharan ' fril 'a ill t 1hi li1c at 20-30 mill i1111 hul wi 11 fl' Illa ill an ccon11mic and sociL'l d mtll hinL Suh Sahar1111 Africa uw ld lo flH rL I h 111 hO 111illio11 pc11pk by 015 Slllllh i fr11 i ha 111g 111111' r rcpnrlcLI lllV IDS in 1h hlal l- populi1tion j no l ' onfn111kd ith 1 prohkm a' cn n a 1h i1111' 11111 t or Sl1h-S 1h 1r1111 AJ'rka FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 L 1wral p1 1pul 1li11111 o lli h ri'I urban ind rural i11 1puli1tirnh ar 86 11 ant I 7 HIV po i1iv r1 1x t 1ivl 'l llT o Sinl' L' 1h tart r th - r l1uir J lmmunl''llll'lil'icnq Syndrome l IDSl po tn 1k niio in 19 1 12111illi11n p oopk h 1 C Ji J 28 o Cher 30' ilflh HIV inkct1 d o AIDS h ' rcdUcL d liflo l Xf l 'l 'tam y from 10 In fl Y1 ar' about 11 1rn1 is ii a' hlL fril 'a in till mitl-1 1 '1ls o I 1f1o l' lll'l'lilllL' n1a hl r1 od11l 'L'd in thc IW t 5 Yl'ars h1rlh1 r 1l ' I Tlw l 'yck 111' inadcqua1to health c arL' md al'llh ' di _oa t' 11mh111l ' I wilh ill 't 1 in pllp11la1i1111 and hi h popula1 i1111 dl n ity 111al11rnn1iun 111LI umkr 11ttl1 it ion Utd l'lll1 'Q in an I r -c111 r in inti c1i1 lll llj L'a- c i II 1 11111i11 ll ' 11 lld p c111 ra to soc icta I in tahilil'v with l'11n 1 411l'lll humani1ari 111 il- uation jll - sihl rt sulti11u in L S or n1ali1i1111 milililf ' in11o1 h nlio11 Wi1k pn ad 111l o1 1iou- di c t l' in lhL' dt' l'loping world will al'o plilc l S atkl l oaliliun fot 'l '' at i1wn iscd risk lll'n p uti 'itl tlln iu 1 11nlinfl't1L y 11pcra111111 - i 11 u11dcrdt d11ploJ cnunlril'' Third V11rld 111ili1 1ry pa11il 'ipat111n 111d llk'tlil'ill l'l' tdi1w- will han i 11itirn111 imrlil 11i1lfh inr co 1litin11 top ration Non-Infectious Diseases r 1 1 Urh 1ni1ation l'limatil' t holll C pmir fo1x1 and Hll 'r qu41li1y llll or 111 1111n1 i- l nt - anitation Y ll'lll- and Im h il 'lll' wndanl will l 'ontribUll ' h1 an i 11 1 oa l d worlllwidt indJl nl 'c tif infcflim dhC l l' Poor nmtmlkd indu 1riali1atio11 111 lk d 1pi11 l'11u111rk '' ill rl sult in acull' and d1r mic non-ink1 tio11' lli asc result ing fr11m L J X UI l to l'hcmil 'als i11dudi ng h a y mcials 1h 1t p11llu10 air atcr ' oil andl ir fPlld Such di- 1 'a c' may not unly afk 1 hi ' 1ndi n11u - and tr 1n 11atio1wl popntllY httl al'o tronrs lcplo ini 1 1 ud1 trc - and the popnlat i1 111 of ountriLo that i111p11rt L nntami11at1 d fouc b a 1 t 'uh of till' li'bali1 1ti1rn of fr1od ttppli - C1111 - UNCLASSIFIED Ill Global Issues and Assessments Jiirrn n1 lf dwmk il and r id11 IO a 1c 111 1 l rial' f n 1111 i 11 du 1ria l i1 J tinul J ll'itl lknol11pi11g 1111111r il'' il l L' tLprnbk111' S11luli1111' 111 lhl l' l ho1lk11 c' jli not l fn1it1011 l 1r lhl hll ' -'L'ahk lutliri ' ' 1 11111 ' priori 1k ' '' ill lliillOll' i 'l'hiHC ll'lll r 1 i lln 11n 4ui1 h Ii a111I u 1 111lin 1 'l o- lli ltllil prmlL1 1iYit U Heavy snow in Kosovo hampered mooi toring of the growing crisis and placed limi lotions on the level of hosfilifies and violence that had occurred during warmer weather THE ENVIRONMENT t 1 Till' i1111' -1 th 11 Hyperbole is a characteristic of the information age What starts as a little story is suddenly all over the news 1111111lx r ooI l'i 1111' 111'1 1111111 il 'll U ' h i' and the lnfemet 1111pl1 - 1111111' 111r 1111111 111 h dlh 111 I dtl'f Information feeds Tl11 It 111 1 -rrn n111 q11 ' 11l fr o111 d tlll on itself and this is 1 II 1i- 111' II ' - ltll llllh 1111 ' 11 hUI true for the weather 'lloh -11 111 o' uh1111 ir 'I 111 1on1nh111 h o -Stu Ostro t rile ht1111 111' 1r h 1 111 un 11 ir 11111 111 iml li111 1h 1 q11i1 app u nl p 1111 -til 11'1y 111 1h ' ''l' iPp111 r i111i ' h Tl' 1ki1o1 1a111111 k l'l I ili - 1 IH111 i11d i11d11 1n 1l11 11iooll ill' tlh k dm ill df h ddll11o11 dh 11J1 1kdilll' Ill 1h U Pollution in developing countries is a l11'1 1 1Jlil ll Jlll ll' The Wealf'ler Channel sign flcanl facfor in increasing instances of non-inlecftous diseases lo1v1 1111111 m 1 indud i11l 'l lilli1111 11 hall meteorology supervisor ill o'I llilid l Ultll ' 1k 1ru 11i on Pf 1 p ir11 -11l 1r ''Y''''m 1 1 1- 'I on h' 1r in n111l 111itl t rn 11 j 111 d1 1 ii l r 1 11' -- 11111 tir 1 o 1o11 11i 1 111- 111' o II' lunn ' 1ii i1 ith d r ii 1 111111 l ''-ait in io1oJi 11 11r- 1ll 111 ' 111rrn v i1h 1 p 1tl n 11i l 1 1lur I di 1 1 o 1 life Science Technologies t L l B1nlo' 1 11111 olo ' i il ad 111n - 1 ill l llll int a11i I ph 1111wl c u11 1I nuilblllo'' f o r 1 of '1' 1 1 - - w ill ti tito 1k do p11w111 1 f 111 o1p1 1 no 1 h 111d 1no ' tK l' 1 r 1h 1 lli lll 1r 1ti11 o irnl l'l o 111111 ink 11 11 1111 n o1i- 1ll kl 1i11u' dh1 a-- c lilh lhl' l'i ih 111 111 l in1ht 1r 'l llor- 1ol in f u 1ri 1i i1 d 1 ' lllllloI '' in lf1 1d 1l 1hl 1o1 th1 o p 1n I 1t1 r - 11lutJto11i1 rn od1 i1 ui I' '' L1r 111 1rh h d Thi - IM' 1111pnn d 1 lian ho 11il1 a1 uid 1tk'd1 d 1 1d111c 111 lh ll1LIU ln ili l 11odd htll ha' d1'11- li11 I Iii lllpl ' l' 1 111 lli o' J11pi11 rq i111b nu li 'lld I il 11 1 ll h tll l' '' oII UNCLASSIFIED 111 h t ' j 111l1 i11l o Xllrtl_ lllijl 1 a1 1111' 11tilt1 1 f1 ''1'' 11 io' 11 IU li dt l oi 'I ' flh 11 h t i Ill ' lll LJI l lik lllo ill 11 _o l Yh olll111llt11 i ll 111'1q11 1i - b i 1 c o I 1J11 l 1r t ' 1d1 o1 11111 1 d--o Ix Ltl 1 1p 1t - i o 1fal Global Warming ti 1 hh11tH h '''' 'I' 1 'd h m Iii I oh 1 li1n k 11l' 111o1 11t1i -i- '1ll i111n 1 11i k I 1111 hllll'd 111 1itllru1' 'l 11 itll r ' FUTURE THl EAT 1999-2020 ' ' rransnolionoi Issues UNCLASSIFIEO U Chlness nomil' rroop support durtng tfoods Ins - ln L111stabk rl giuns s11d1 guwrnmem and lnfrastm turc- Thi 1 97 forest tires in Indonesia conlributc l Lu the unrc t hroughl on hv 1ht o 1998 L' 'nnomk L'risi whid1 has 1 on1inucd in1n 1'Jl l Sl'wrc Wl 'athcr also 1 omlilion l'illl funha strl'sll can haw juni lkomt shrn1 and ln111 Hcnn sl l'urit implitot1tions mid thcrdllrl nK rit furl'l'a- ting and incorponil ing in lo i 111dfiThe maj11r agricultural an as of ca tcrn ll raine and sm11hcm us- ia were unfarnrahly dry in mid-19 JX and liltL' wet wcathl r h 11111 ll'rl 'tl Lhc lmrvc tin1 uf thl' limill'd crops iivl n thL' Russi tn Cl ' 01lnlllil ni i m1d thl' limilcd food stores harsh -C tlhl'r in sutist' Ul'llt yl'ars coul I prove dis i trolh l ou Hl'l lll llll'h nrolngi l al forl'c aslinl rcnwins MlllK whal umkpendilOI hul 1ill flfllt i 'nl for military and political planning Pm_itoi tcd oodvanccs in ino trun'k nl 1t ion llll'lhnlll log y anll pl 11 essi n of allOll -pheril' anll n htlCll dai i will improve lhc- t' forcl asts md mal- l' 1lwm more rdcvanl in 1hc an ily1il ' 1l prnccs - Cllt'c '-''1im 1ll' S n nhou g ls1 os Ilk' cfk 1' of glohotl must 11111 he JisrnunteJ Tl11 po1c11lial for impat I 011 lllhill h'lllpcTillttn _ rrecipitutinn slonn paucrns antl 'ca kwls 1 ould 1ltcr i ri1 11hur Willer o upplies ph iol1i- h al anti 111 111 1 hc illh rd Ucd infr 1s1ruc1ures anJ thl' l'cU1i1y environment i Tllling nr SCJ lcvd ri l' has incrcasl d stcadil ' since 1650 ith strong act dl nuion al lhc end of ht o 19lh CCllllll Thb incn ascd 1U' The rail' rah of riSt ' ma or m iv not rnn lat with g 111- hal w 1m1in Still there are implic tli lll o for thl' dcvdopinp_ World Whl ' largl' rorlions of the population r j in u1 lan enters in coa tal and delta rc gion - The challc11gto will he for g wemnients 111 sc regions to re- pont l dlt ' tivd with limited 1-c- 11un c to natural and hu111a11i1arian cfo Lo krs Weather Patterns and Natural Disasters 1U dil al i hanl C'I in dimalc haw direL'I and i 1Jm 1 t impiicatinn for - lalt '1' and l gions Flum 1' anJ prolongcll droughh pose o rim1s 1hrca 111 puhlic health and 1 1 urily an I can lctld lo sig nifa am 'O 30 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 CI In thi next l'Hrs 1 nu111hcr of dim 1tl'-rclat d natural di asLcrs will 11 ' 'llr 1h 1t will rcsulr in 1hc ncl'd for military support npt ration'- Ex unplt s arc the IlJlt7 for l' I fires in lndonc i i and the devastation wrought on Central America by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 Because of 1hc hr adth 111d 1kpth of its lo istics tnd - Uppoil apabili- th s lht' U S military will i onlinul' lo Ixo used as a primary rcspon mcd1ani '1t1 It i' also concei ahlc 1ha1 in th ncx1 20 y ar- C S irmcd f m e - will han to r sp11ncl 1 1 11ne lf Lhc o ' disa 11 fs un l r nnn-pcrmisi ivl' coruiitions UNCLASSIFIED Ill Global Issues and Assessmen1s Transnalional issue MIGRANTS - REFUGEES DISPLACED PERSONS Over the pasl thrt c year the number of nmn1rn to the llNHCR UN High Commissioner for Refugee ha' dmpped worh lwidl to just over 22 million Thi is down from a rn ord high of 'J 7 million in I 995 Including the lJNHCR ptor mns n ' connom lherl' are rnrrently an - 1imated 50 million people who have been for ed frnm their home armmd the world There havt hel'll notable ini reases in portions of Ath4 a Europe and Nrn1h America During U Makesrnlt homes such as theJe have the lll'XI 20 yc 1rs chc l Ontinuing disparity becomo Integral to the landscape in many tween ril h and poor countries ri ing parts of Africa and are indicative of the pe1si1nationalism thl' fragml'ntation of e - isting tence of c mographic strains on the confinenl srates ethnic religious polilil'al and tril lal 11trife natural di- astcr' and thl' flinnation of IX'r of refugee in Eun 1p with over 77 tXXl i 1 m ting entitie will g cncrak' new tlmvo The majority of these h lvc- found their way of migrants refug1 't' and intem 1lly disnorth from Lh Balkan Consequently Gerpla 1 -d rocr on- Humanitarian cm rgeni ic will remain a llmmon feature of th i11tcma- many has taken an tive rolc in the monitoring nd mru111 eml nl nf the Balkan retiJgcc tional urity environment l 1 l'l om r l SIJl' U 1 During the next 20 years migr 1til111 fnm1 developing countril's to int1u triali1 ed countric 1 o i II increase Dcvdoping Ountrit'-o havl M Cll rcc or l incrca Cli in tht' wnrking -agt o population whil al lh same time we tl rn imlu triali1cd slatt s have 1ww11 a dedim in the sJ mc ag group Thi' incongruity coupkd with 1hc widening l onomic gap l lt'lween thc k ht developed and tht indu tria ized countries ha fueled the ri' in migration - both egill and illegal Thi migration will hallcngc de isil Jnnwkt'r' and strc cconum i1 and politkal infrastruct urc s U For oll lca t chc ncxt two lccac k 'i Europe will foc e migration pmblcms from the ' OUth and 1uthea'l By the end uf 1997 the loth t rbm ls - wiih a population under 16 million -- expericn ctl mun than 11 50' Y in rcaS ' in ro ofugee applying for a' ylum nver the prcviou yeJr Over 64 10 l r rugL C - ought am tumy induuin i J OfXJ asylum - kers fun ini th Du1ch overmnt nl ro 1 11a't erealt r immigration C llltl ls During the 'mnto year the i ri b in Albania rt uhcd in 17 01 K l rdugL'C fk'Ci11g to Italy Pmtly a a rl -sull Italy to11k a leading role in pem c Opt 'r rtion in All lania GcnnJny ha b r for th - largl 'st num- UNCLASSIFIED l New and rekinJlcd ontlict in Africa during 1998 kept the numhcr of per 011 fl concern high At least a million pcopk are displm cd in Angola with ovtor 150 000 addition ini e miJ-1997 111 ht ir lel' li pute and t- ociatcd conflict hetwl 'en Ethiopia omd Eritrea have left an c -timatcd 250 000 people di pla d Ethiopia already ha 1 larGBPt' refugct population ol al lout 300 XJO 1 f1n i 1ing mostly 111 Somalis and Sudanc c The hig prohlem area on tht o conuncm rcrm1in' Sul J n Approximately JtiS 000 rdugce' makc thc-1r inkorim home U Fleeing Kosovar villagers FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 31 rrcm nc ttonaf swe-s By the spring of 1999 the conflict in Kosovo displaced over a million inhabitants and nearly 600 000 of these fled into neighboring countries there while almo - t -l million Sm lancse trto imcmally lisplaccd Even if the tide nf crisb-imluccd migration is loppe l at h sl it will takt at least the next leca le to settle or repatriate the multitudes l 1 Add in to it mounting pmbkm Ru_ sia ton must 'Opt wirh a sit eahk refugee population of abour 3 4 000 of hkh Moscow is ho t to the larne - t num r- abloUt 100 000 Thi' ha - in rcas d tension in the ciL a- most Mu ovites remain hi hly xem1phobic When rnmlli1 l wi th deleriornting i c t111 11nk c onditions 1hc refugee situation prn 'idcs foddl r for civil unrest l In the Mit ldk East population growth ci ooomi1 Lli parity and water distritmtion shortfall will furthi r ac1 elcnilc migrati1111 and ct1mpound soc io p lit1 al pr hkms The issue of the Palt stinian refugee- pose a signitka111 challenge to the hddlc East with million rnrremly living in Lehanon Syria and Jt nlan This populatiL111 i ould approach 6 million by O O Thi prublem b nwst acute in L t anon where fhcrl b little chaTil 'C of a 'iimilalillrl and government control is nearly ab cnt in the rd'ugee camps A single Pak tinian -late would nt'l be able to a cept cun'ioliuation of all Palestinians Howevcr significant numhers would atlempt to return creating a potential dcstabili1ing factor fnr the region U I In Latin Amcri a then arc i cvcr 1 I areas hen o per ons 11f n mcern rcpn oent an inL r a ing 1' llUl l' of intrJ tatc and inter- tate distress Colombia Peru and Guat mala 1 ' l llUlll for aOO ll J 6 million intem iJI ' displaced person - while Mcxi o a ml 'ost Ri1 a llmtiined play host lO ov r so mo n fugeel Natural disa lC-r - l 'h 1 - Hunil tnt ' Mit 'h of late 1998 will ea il dri e lhi- number hi her l ' The lure of pmspcrity will rnncinuc tn in o pin millions to migrn1 c to the Uni1cd St llcs from around the world well into the next i cntury A lditionally those who haw lk'l l their nativ land bcL auSt of war d 'il 1 onflit t or per ecution arc drawn hy lhc rx r1 cived uppununity alli'mkd hy the United State where apprnx inm1cly 5 K 000 rcfogces have 'Ought sanL tuary The flgntC ' I ion nu il nt' r1i l 1 C ' h L t h t I llh l nu ' i1olf1' lkh -1 0 1J 11 ' 11 t RWA unique L 1pahiliLil ' s of the L s mil itary - strategic lift gloh 1I dcploymcm and - ustainment C31 eh - will rem iin in high demand a s the 1ntcma1iom1l rnmmunity s ck s to cope wilh lhL se lri nds Sud den W tW'i of human lllO i 'tnl 'nt are likdy in th coming years beL m1se lf thl s 1cio-culiural policical aod CL Onomk dynamks urrl nlly in play ilCrn - mm h of rhe globe Candidates ror m ' larg l Sl lle rug c wav s in the approadling y ars include foxico Colomhia Cuba most or Cl mrnl Ameri1 a Al ria Cl nlrul an l West Afri a the C 1UL'il U ' and Ce111ral i 1 - ------ 199 World RelUQ Totals Middle East Africa South Cenffal Mel Europe FSU lhe Americcn Caribbearl East Asla Paciftc 5 7 m1111on 2 9 million l 7 millon 1 2 million 0 9 million 0 6 million 0 5m11Hon 1998 Top Ten lntema y Dtsplaced Pertc n IDP Popu a ions Sodon 4 D million 1 2 mitlion Angolo Afghanllkln 1 2 m11uon Colombia 1 0 million Turkey 1 0 m1111on 0 9 milllOn 0 8 mil lon 0 6 million 0 7 mH11on 0 S mRllon Iraq Bosnia SJ Lanka Burma Azerbaijan oMedian estimate Source UN - ---- - - - -- - - - - -- -uNCCASSIFIEO - - - - - --- - - ----- - o' ' ----------- ' ' - - - - - - - - - 32 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 i --------- ------ -----l-''''l'hi''il-'f'fMfM f'I T'ansrn'lfioriol i$1ues Five Largest Refugee Groups in 1998 UNCLASSIFIED ' i ' ' ' 4 ' ' -'tj LIA Indian Ocean Atlantic Ocean ' ' JOoo L l Refugee Sources - ___ - l' ' o r' o ' Refugee Recipients UNCLASSIFIED - - - - - -Retugee Re cipientl -- ----- Refugee Sources Afghanistan - 2 6 million ---IJIJ Iran Pakistan India Westem Europe Iraq - 0 6 million Iran Syria Saudi Arabia Westem Europe Bosnia - 0 6 million Germany Yugoslavia Croatia Austria Somalia - 0 5 million Sweden Switzerland Ethiopia Kenya Yemen Djibouti Westem Europe ----oIll Burundi - 0 5 million Tanzania D R O C Rwanda Zambia ---- -- - - - - -- -- - - - - - - - - - - - Source UN - ----- -- ------- - ------ UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 o 33 111 Global Issues and Assessments ORGANIZED CRIME The threat from organized crime after the turn of the century will grow in size and sophistication as the perceived fruits of crime grow also lend to Tl'si - t internal and l' lcm 1I efforts JI cconnm ii and polilical reform Th global tlm at from org mizcd crime Military opi rations could he umknnined r on1inu1 os ro incrca - e Criminal r ouh l o and when carri J out in arc is und1 or the intluthdr aclivitic art likely 10 comL' more cnr c of mg1111i1 i d 1 'rimc uring th o JN sophi o ti atcd anJ complc Tht'y will fur- Somalia mhsion of 19lJ S111rn1li gwup o lht'r im ll c 1h 111 - clve in c11tcn ivc le iti- mad llSI ' of L'N ll ITI 'Xlntf ' mploymcnt mmc 1 ovL'rs f11r illi1 il hw incss and will and infr i - m1cturc to Ct induct i llil 'it bu -ii seek co dirt'ctly inlh11 nr 1 o through infilrra- ncss The 'muggling of arms into the B tl rinn und manipulation all h 1 nf OVCm- k ms liy h1mpc 111 groups ha mklL'U Yi l mcnt tr m natillllal organi1 ations and anothc r -c urity on cm for ln ninf flusincsS1 's Th rc is limi1i d but intriguing pcal ekccping ll nttions The d1allcngc uf t'Viden1 ' c of ollahor ition amung indepen- l rg mi1cd ninw will in rL't1Singly require dent group Thi - 1 oopi o1- tlion 'nuld 1 Xlt 'nd coopcrJtiun mnong U S milit 1ry law 10 t morisl group as wclL In c1 lonomkally cnfrm t m nl ollld intclligl nc cr 'kes and politil' illy un - tatil l nunlri1 os or w- ni1l'd r riminals ain n atcr 1r cl'S oo h l irILLEGAL DRUG TRADE l Utnn ntiog ur - uh l'rting wcalo cni tl -urity infra - trm lurcs anJ inlihra1in pm 1U t c' llru s and dmg proc h1 1s t xpandcmmcnb Thi' i rn n awJ pn t n1 i Uhl Clor ing 111ark1 h and new method of JlflK iu rcspom ling l'Orr11p1io11 and lkhilitation of Lion will continually aher ilkgal dru lei ilirn 1lt' gnwrnam c an - asily affect the traflid ing p 1llL'rn fra ik nacurc uf th1 o - late Hu ian or il ni1cll o rime gwup o ha 1 an 1 - whli hcd 1l ' Powerful iutl'rna1ional 111 1 traflid inu pr s1 11i o in Eura - ia l i lcm t- urupc and 11rgm1i1 1tion v ill n111inuc tn Pl' ' a ri- 1hc l i S often u ing fonncr Soviet 1 11mwc m11 thrt at tn l l S nalion il rnril Dru lions lo i ond111 1 hu in - vcntur ThL''c traff kl ing and i m umption will '1111ti11ul ' l l'UP ' lllll 'i111ih1r ruups ghl illl lo thn il1 '11 ur 'IW ial onkr and llll' d1 moan inl'li111 d 10 i ccp lhc ho t alhl' Tlwy ratk i111 1i1111ion' ind '01 ial wcll-tll inu of 0 PRIMARY NARCO-TRAl 'FICKIN r MOVEMENTS UNCLASSIFIED ---i FUTU ETHREAT 1999-2020 G9HFl9Etm11tl Ill Global Issues ond Assessments Transnational Issues our global pa11ncrs The illegal drug trndto kills and sicken - drain s c onomics threaten the envimnmc-nt and undermines dcmllCralic institutions and inkrnational order lJ The national security threat po d by trafti1 kcrs is hectlming rnnre complex and dilil rsc as the international d111g trade becomes im reasingly llui l and ophhli- cutcd International criminal syndicate will tal c advantage of rapid advancemems in global communications tnmsponation and tinanl'C to more cflkicnrly conduct their business U Throughou1 the world p l'Y 'erfol drug trafficking artels act with near impunity many seizing and maintaining their power through h rihery rnercion threat - imimidatinn and murder di1 edcd against dcdcd olfa e-holders mcrnhers of the judkial Y tcm law cnfofl cmcnt oflkials mililary per' ounel and journali ts- U Hezbollah home page en un 1iddle Eastern 1ern irism ill remain the primary terrorist threal h1 lht Cnited State through 20 0 State pons ll S ofterrorism will continut to use it a an element of foreign policy bur gc nerally in a cm en mann r to e cape political or military r tal- iatiun Terrorist groups arc ex cleJ In tend tov ar l independence from ra1e spon ors and eek suppon from non-state sponsors such as lhunrn Bin Ladin in Afgh mi1'tan t 'liddle Ea tcm ti rrorists will i ominue to c- 'l pon temJrism worldwide p uticuJarly to Europe and Africa Narc 1Hraflicking is u ig nifii ant fundsour e for criminal md insurgent grours l ing ' Drug-related corruption will rea h epidemic level in l ertain countrie thi may n 4uire a more dir t rcspon' e from the United Slates to protect our national ecurity The hemispheric commitment to resJ l i I the rule of law human righls and the principk s of sm creigncy and democratic rule will be under atiad from the drug kingpins has - Jacques Chirac European terrorism 'ill remain fol used on flai -h points gi 'nerafLod by political religious or cullural differenL es in Eurnpc We 'Xpc-ct ethnic differe nl es to he i primary motivating factor 1s eastern Europe e pecially the former So' ict Union 1 resolves ii borders Vestiges l'fieftist organizations ma surYiw unlil 020 bm only if the g o 'crnmems tht y oppo -e lrl' unable to provide for their lX pulation Regional Outlook America will continn1 w host two sources l'f terrorism - that gen rLJ ted b 1hose who oppoi -e Lalin Amerirnn Lntin _ EEiREl Terrorism become the systemic weapon of a war that knows no borders or sel dom has a face TERRORISM Intema1innal k rrorism is expccte i to remain a problem through 2020 l fotivation for terrorhm will remain extreme nationalism ethni tensions religi 1u differencc1' and cr onomic and politkal di en- franchi ernent limited late ponsorship h expected to continue The prominent lJ S role in international counter-terrori m will rhat our interests will remain a pri- m u t trget for lerrorism ___________________________ FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 35 Ill Global lssuos and Assessments governmt nts - insurgents and 10 1 ksscr cxtcnl mm otiL'S trafticking organizations - and th tt gcner lled by C tcrnal dL mcms most notably hlmnic Although 1he c dcm nl are Long Term OuUook Ne ' 'ltr mists xpec ted to focus on Israeli or otht'r l liddlc Ea lcrn Largets the ' m ricas also prov i le a potenti tl a nue to the U S homcla11 l and an cxtcmal --ourcl' of ini nme Asian lcrwri rn will he rooted in rdi- de 'dnpments in lc chnnlogy will be used primctrily to impro 't' methods of de-lin' t tor i onl ealmcnt of terrori' t wi apon The emphasis will be on simplici1y effectivenes anil limikod risk ro the te rr11rist his organization or pon or Terrori'ils i1u rt asingly will usto infomrnuon operations to colk t intellig nc e and potc n ially l altack infrastm tur giou xtrt'mis111 and elhnk diffcr nces In somL' ca s gm ernmcnh will U' t' 1erroris1 'tS ll i' prohabk tlml terrorist orga111z 1ti1m or individuuls will 'mploy 1 weapon 0f mas- d struction aga1n I F S inter sl hy 20 0 H ightcn d publicity aboui the o vulncraliility or dvilian target an inaea o ed interi sl in inlfo ting ma 1 1 ualr il'S ernl'r African tcrnirism in general will g m e of kss pn odil'labk gwups and grcJl r en 'rntcd l 'I thnic diffcre11L c 111d will be l ailahilil llf W ' 1D-rclakod prcxlm til111 subset crt insmgcnl i or se1xirn1ism lno ll dg md lt hnnlo hav - already Trnnsnati nal li rrnri' l lr_gani wtions wi II drnwn the a1te11tio11 11f s1 111c terwri I nrg11ni1 c i1i lll' A ldition ill thl hoax oi hladm ii I lalul' ltf WM b i ptllenually puv erful p - ydmlogicJI wc 1pon in ii -elf Jnd its llSl' l' tn he exp 'tcd to in Tca l' m thi future or insurgents t 1 funhcr lcrritorial goals in neighboring countries Umlable countrks lik Afghanistan will provide sat h 1vens for extn mist and 1enurist groups WMD PROLIFERATION l l Prt1lifer 11ion hy nh cr m s and nnn l ompliant partnl n ill katl 10 nhJm tl wartighting ' 1pahililit - that 11 -omplicall' U S L ontingcn - phnming L1 S for e -- may h 1w i 1 cn ag in o irfare in whid1 ac h'an cll lind f111 a t larnrnhk whkh ro p rall' i- po or sec urily unsuhk H rnm 11r p1 r i --1 36 FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 U UNSCOM inspectors a ive in Iraq -------1- f'f'hf'2 1 Hii'ii''6' TronsnoticnOl lssves blPJ 1 4 c 1 4 h convl lltional weapon aod WMD are use l din 'Clly a ainst U S forces and on ac e and embarkation points Conflict between other nations or groups in which such Wl apl1ns are u d may aho affo t subsl 4ul nl LS involvement Chemical Biological Weapons CBW Cl The 1972 Biologkal aml Toxin Weapons Convention tBWCl remains in place and the Chemical 'We ipons Con 'ention 1CWC which entered iolo fore _ in April 1997 b gaining wide acceptam e Ncvcrthdess some countric will maintain covt'n L hcmical and bio ogic 1l warfare cap-ctbilitie Many countries possess 1he infrasrructure to develop c mical and biological weapons and tho la1 king an indigenous capability can purL ha iL Furthemton chemical and biological warfare llwgrnim can be concealed within legitimate dual-ui R D und industrial operation- 1li 'f Many of the i omponems neede l for i hcmii al 1 r biological tgent wcaponizuhon arc used in other types of w apun systems many of whirh are 1 ailahle in the internaLinnal arms market Chemical and hiological agents c m ht disseminated by lube and rocket trlillery g rounJ and naval mines aerial bombs suhmunition di pensNs for air raft tnd a wide variety tif spray devke - An inaeasing number of countrie ar abo L'apable of l mploying unmanned aerial vehicles cruise mi sile and ballistic missiles fnr chemical and biological attack Terrori t u c should also he anticipated pnnuirily in impro 'ised devices prnbahly in ass1 1ciation with an explosiv b 1 1 4 c Lil Agent' such as S rin am I mustard nnw rht o mainstay of chemical warfare ar nals will 1 ontinue to be a threa1 in lhc near term und the pcrsistcnL ncrvt' agent VX ill ent r the np rntional in 'cnmries of more i ountrics as their programs maturt' An increasing number of l ountries with biologi1 al wart irc pmgnuns will lle able tc develop infectious agt 'nts uch as anthrax and plague as Y ell as toxins sui h a' hotulinum and ric in fur weaponi1 1tion U S forces deployed in either military or peac ck eping rolt s could be exposed to the e agents b 1 1 4 C 1 4 h Chemical and hiological 1gent threat - also C lll derive from sources or hl r than conv nti o nal am ed for es of hostik stales The nature of agent dissemination devices is such that special operation forces and terrori1'1 groups can use chemir al and biological agents lf SE REl NQf QSUI FUTIJRE THREAT 1999-2020 U The prolifeTOHon of WMD lncreas s 1e ptobablllty that armed confffct or a teoorlst attack wHI have a CW SW component 37 Ill Global Issues and Assessrrient ___ _____________ in ways that could ha 'e a major impact on national security and wartighting capabilitie The tcdmolngy require l to dis emi- natc agents using am rat't tru k small boats or num-portable devke1' is r adily ublainabk in the fom1 lf agric uhurnl spray rs expcn ivc and difficult w obtain will preclude the widespread pmlikra1ion of nuclear weapons Nevertheless the number of countrie K quiring nuckar weapon tcchnolog ' and material will slowly 1111 rc a- c inw rhe next century b 1 S c H c and similar forms of e4uipmem Impro- ised de i'- es are ulso likd lO be used for agent dissemination Nuclear T proliforation l f nuclear weapons and nuclear technology poses a particularly grnw threat A related pmnlem involves unsafe nuclear tt chnnlogy of all types including that u- c-d for p aceful purposes as well as th iiuproper - urity aml h mdling of nudcar nu11criah that are dangerous in thdr natural or processed form Th -' threat will grow as more nuclear tel hnology i us d Se 'cral foclor' '- including international 1 oumer-proliter 1til10 agreement general puhlic politil al opp 1silion and the fact that nuclear weapons technology is U Indian Shakti-3 nuclear test $ le Biggest problem Chemical and biological capabilities used by subnational groups that are not easily deterred or identified Growing Threat Tactical Operations and Terrorism 38 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 EEURREf 'rJeFe1m - - - - ----- ---------- - - - ---------- Advanced Conventional Weapons Through the ne xt two dci adcs the limited cap 1bility of mml states lo de eJop and produce high-led1 syste-ms will fore chem to purchase their advancl d weaponry al road The high price of these ilcm will limit quantities bur in mt1s1 c ascs it is the lethality or perceived advantage the advanced weapon c tn provkle for 1he end users that will promote sales Countries thac cannot atlnrd complclc systems will tend to pur ue niche capabilities or elected improvements This hybridization of t n will make use of Wes1em electronics and subsystems on ulde-r platform_ _ Ullimatcly however ac4uiring and incorporating advanced conventiona I v 'capon - ystems and sub-sp tcms will be of k- s importance than possessing the kill md knowledge to dfe1 tivcly employ and su' Lain them in operational setting U Israeli enhanced llomonian MIG-21MF ffgtaters ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY U South African 20mm NTW 20 AMl'I onH-materiel fffle Ul As the 1- peed of technological i1mo atio11 and implementation increase - the availahility of older genera1ion technology to devektping coumries will increa e Countries wi1h aJ am ed technology will not tk' ahle to maintain exporl controls on ol ler tl 'chnolugy in the face of economil and bui ines - prcssun s Older technology will he very useful to developing countries for both traditional anlt nlwel developments in military - ystems and w 1p- on Additjonally l '-'hnology will continue to lo c the di - tim rion of being either exclusively for military or xclut-ively for civili m use Therdore even the proliferntion of older 'dual-uf e ted1nology will lead to an inL rea d thre 1L giv n the ability to adapt 1ha1 rechnnl- ogy inro mililary U Toclicaf High-Energy Laser Q9 J F19U llAL -y tcm This threat j furtho r compounded ir rnrnm n iall FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 39 e e eoeliii'i'f---- - - - ------- - -- -- ----- - 11011sn '1'kmol wues available advanced technology can be incorpora1ed into the syi tcm as well for the lJ S Some of lite more troubling areas are lis1ed below LT In part because of technology prolifer alion we may become more vulnerable considering our dependence on automation and telecommunication The key to maintaining our technologkal dominance is to pursue systemic technological advancements that arc integrated and employed more effectively than those of our adversaries Several countries will develop the infrastructure to use new technologies for military systems Industrially funded R D will play a larger rnle in the development of new technologies for military applications The U S will face competiton und adver ries wi h selected high tech capubiliti with Japan and Germany leading in selected niche technologies However the U S is not likely to fo ce a high technology peer through 2020 o Computer speed secure operations Technology Proliferation U Technological development and innovation continues al a phenomenal rate in many cases in area that have direct military application The proliferation of this technology has significant national security implications and very advanced system config urations o Communication spa d - very high data rate communications o Advan 'ed electronics photonics and neural networking o Tran portation advarn ements 8 Remote and autonomous control systems roholics o Smart materials o Warfare modeling and imulation and synthetic environments o Ultra snort pul1-e time frequency sensors al RF applications o Integrated microsystcms microel ctromechanical systems MEMS micro-engineering 11a1w1cchnolo ies o Biot chnolog ies UJ Exploralory French rranspott ----- - ---- ----FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED ---------''IM@'W'i'''ietiiti' i''' Cri co1 Uncertoin#e$ Critical Uncertainties fl Critical uncertainli abound Uncertainty about Lhe future is cH'll greater thm1 it wa - a deL adc or more ago when the Cllkl War and the bipolar international environment cmed ro provide a set of parameter o by which to gauge future developments A small sample of the mon notahle unc r- t 1inties for the 1999- 2020 time frame arc listed in the tahle below However the po sibilitil s implicit in past ewnts and future predictions arc enough co keep any tratcgk thinker and planner busy for years UJ One nitical uncert 1inty is of pecial interl - t Managin regional power hift will be an enduring challenge throughout the period How this process will ut'fc t ghlbal security remains to be s1 oen This will tie paTticularly true as China and prnbkm in Asia loom ever larger on the intcmution ll horilon U Natural disasf9rs reprnent one form of wild card mechanisms for lcader hip succession making the pnx e more stN eptihle to 'iolence and un ertciinty and possibly re' ulting in rJdkal change - in political an I attl'ndmlt mililary 1 direction il' Tram national groups C pccially mulliOne Qf the more problemilli1 aspects of nalional 1 orporation - and criminal ' yndimonitoring and rrcdicting regional power cates frequently ' 'hange kadcrship The shifts h the question of leadership The qucsLion is who will emerge at a nicical problem of succession is less contemiou5 in rime and become a thn at to ll S interests democratk states but in the next twenty yc 1rs Algeria China Cubo1 Egypt Tndone- L' l Then will bc snernl other elements of siu Iran Iraq the Korcas Libya Nigeria concern in managing power hifts such as Pakisr m Russia Sau li Araliia South regional 1r lo aliled change in the balance Africa Sudan Syria anJ se 'erJI others of power economic peaks and valleys with likely will l X rience changes in lea ler- trntegic wnsequen1 c and confiicts Iha ship Many of these state have no formal destabilize nations and region - ti Critical Uncertainties in The Decades Ahead o E 'olution on the Korean Peninsula o llnimpedl d access to key res iurccs o Middle East dispu l s o Impact of a more powerful China o Viability of nation-stah o Advanced technology o Warfare trends o Future of Rui sia - lnfonnation operation - Biological chemical war - Subnatiom11 supranational entities o Wild card largl -scale natural man-made d1s11s1ers with curitv implication o o o o o o Evolution of Europe and Eurasia Democracy in Latin America Africa in tran ition Shifts in regional rower balances Weapons pmliferation -Terrorism -- ---------------------------------------UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 41 Key Points Key Points No Global Peer Competitor conditions We have ollrcady nolcd im rca - ing numbers of regional refugees anJ a rising tide of c 1hnic violence We will pa'-S through these phenomena lo some more enled condition however td l'rse social conditions in some regions notaMy in frka will pen i'it Vl'r the ne d two decades nn state will be ahlc w match the combined poli1kal el'onomic military cultural and Lo a large degree Le1 hnologi1 al pmver possessed by the U S The key ' peer candidates all ha 'e long Lenn larger probkm and none has 1he capahility or the will to usurp the U S over this time frame Increasing strains on the intemational security system Extended transi tion period marked by a'ICertainty and power dispersion lo a period charm teri1 ed hy instabiJity weapon proliferation and technology transfers will incrca c the polenLial for limited conflict fu11bcr training national and intemationo1I capubilitie Taking into accouo1 the emerging postCold War glohal security environment and the political-military volution of North Korea China Ru - ia and elsewhere 1he United Stalt'' should expect a Jong period of Lmnsition and um ertainty io th 19992020 time fmrnc During this period specific military contingencies will be unpredictable but the general trend will be toward a clil f l' al nf power Technology leaps possible o i dc tctbililing comlilion that may occur during this period particularly hen achieved by rentogadc stale' will he the acquisition or development of some advan cd technology that i oul l Explosive mix of social demographic and military trends change the 101 il or regional balance of puwer Con 'l rsely some new Lechnolo- Along with lhis trJn sition we will see changing scx ial cultural mu demographic -- - -- ------ 42 gies will contribute to slahili1y aml peaceful evolution -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FUTURE TH AT 1999 2020 QQN Fl BEHJlltl IV Regio nal Assessments Overview Iv R -_ ' i A i ' Q '- I e ' g - ' o - i i 0 m o_ ' -e n - t s Ass __ _ t - ' Overview t J ' 1ajor powers and their relationship to ach other will remain complex and intertwined Russia and China- both unde oing length and difficult transitions- ill retain important strategic and operational militar capabilities and likely represent our most important long-term nation-state concerns Other major powers ma ' compete more openl -among themsdns and ith the t S -in The only fence attemptin to shape the future according to their interests against the world It l Large regional powers possess substantial aggregate capabilities and are integral is a thorough to our regional interests Select regional powers will retain the military capability to knowledge of it directly attack our allies and our interests ith little warning ' orth Korea's continued Mlligerence poses some serious concerns Though anal tical opinion is dh ided on if and when the Korean peninsula will St e n unitication the ewntual outcome will weigh hea ily on li S interests in the rej iun UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 -JOhn Locke 43 IV Rr g1onol A $$CSsrncn t s United Slores United States b 1 1 4 e b 1 1 4 c CHALLENGING THE BASIC ASSUMPTION but will have limited pow-er and few opjX r tunities w change the status quo Tl a large extent lhc lJni1ed States holds the keys tn the future of the global se uri1y environment U The t nitcd Sraces will remain the sole supc rpo ' r through its economk rx1IiLil al military cultural and tei hnological superi- PERCEPTIONS FROM ABROAD ority for at least th tir t quarter of 1he next century The United Stales therefore must remain ngaged around th UrlJ lo maintain this statu If this engagement b rnnstrii tcd the gcostrategic environment wi11 rapidly change owr 1he next twl1 dL-cades and reyond Other powers will ITIO 't in to fill regional or local val uums either by fore or political economic lesign From the perspectiv of other nation U S ' imerfer nc in wl ctt 'd regional affair ' is easy to point out what i nfol f1f1en realiz d is the stabilizing factor that l Ollk'S with U S presence Current crnnomic crises have affecti d iew- of globali 1 ation and the global ccunnmy Nt n rtheks the interweaving of i ily regional national and imernational market- will l'Onlinue for 1he foreseeaOle future Any Amc rican i o olation ism will han a negative impact on the global economil' ncH ork Some stale' ' and non-state groups will challengi lhe a sumplion of American hegemony antl reje ' 't the n1 Cion of Pax Americana outright lJ Th United States is clearly rnl ogni ted abroad as the leading world force This fal1 is treated with 1n obvious mix of emotions and actions Mo l of 1he world sc s no end lo Ameri1 on dominance al lea't thrnugh he next O to 25 yl ar - Perceprions are roughly divided imo three groups M mhl 'rs of the tir t group 1 ontinue hi dearly expres their displea ure over me ric il s superpower talus They rudg- ingly concede this roll l 'iut continue t 1 employ diplomatic and economic means to achieve their own a endas and fru tratl LT S fo s 11 n a mnsl every ' ase e e countne'i o kn di cry U S interfer em e in regional or internal affairs In pa11 the ' foel their own authoritv - and indeed - c _ __ _ a 1hey the FrenchJ resent ttu I global reach of Amelico's power and Woshlngton's presumptton to speak in lhe name of the inlemational community - Dominique Moisi French scholar 1998 U Anfi-U S Dsmonstrotlon in Ecuador ------ ---- - -- - - - - - A4 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 eermeEPffl 'rL - -- - - - - - IV Reg io na l Assessmen1s Unir8dStates CbXi 1 4 e We do believe that the involvement of the United States in the security architecture of East Asia Is fundamental to the stability of the rflg on -Alexander Downer Austral an Foreign Minister The occ ond group l'an hi lahckd i frustrall'd frio o111 b of thl' t S They h m no prohlcm rccoimi1ing rh Lot ility 1 if lJ S dominance for thL' next frw dcrnllc' hut m agitated hy lhc futility of atttompts w 1 nndu t poli1i1 al cconomk and military affairs w ithoul the prc t'llC of the l S and their lo1d of altcrn 11ivc- They knd 10 apprcl'ial1 tho o OH'ral l b1 11clih llf the rd uicmshir hut 1cmain n1111 crn1 d by p rl iwd lJ S ini ll'1 'i - ih'tH ' '- lad of ision anc I ovi rhc iri11g alliludc Gt rmany fopun Turkey Pald- tan 111d 1110'1 of I at in nwrica count 1h1 om chcs in 1hi group One lf th o L'hicf on 'l'l'llS r11r Tur1 L'Y and Paki tan is tho l 1d of full L S c1 11 1pcrntio11 anti a 1wrn ih ll hallo nc's 11f cummimw1ll To some cxll nl jcr11w11 m1d the r ''' nf Europe rai'c 'imihir t ' lllll' 'J'IH We don't need you America what we need is your military - Warren Gill Canadian Schola1 1998 February 1999 hk gianl and l 1 11ign k ukr despite its impcrkctinns Lik fnr rrat1 o I friends they sec Pa Arncrkiin 1 cx1c11ding well into lhto next l Cntury Th1111 h Canai la llK llnitcll Kin dom and Au 1ralia will at 1imc' min- gk with lhc l ond group they aim li 1r luy airy in 1heir rclalionship hcyt nd nwrc n1ltur il rie' and lhu' arc d1il'f m' mh rs of 1his amp The rl'L O ni11 o and prtlmolc heir own in1crna1ional r -iponsihilil i o _ often in 1ani IL 111 irh lhL' U S Jll 'llL'C lhl'Y kar the ol c i iunal isol ilioni -1 llll'Otality anti lid leOl'S o'f A1mori1 o 1 '- i11ll'mati1111al 11111lo ok Thl' new anti rcm wcd' slate of lhl' orlLI - lllO oolly of thl hwnwr Soviet and War aw Paci ilk 'iew 1lwir rdation hip with thl ' l nitci I Stillt 's a a hir oJ' fr1 osh air iftcr wlwt tlwy tt rm a' tllloir O l lrl''' J 1 '' ' i ll'ni c Lm1kr -losL o I l J The r1 oa1 os1 ' lrnll ' it kar '-''Pr 1 d uhr11aJ j no lhc dominant pn o cnc o of rile l'nill'ti Sl ttes in thl' nl'xl cton1ur hut Some Turkish kiidcr cite prnhkm' with 1m1 L lctivl 'ril s a LS attempt lO n ndUl'l a shadow i 'mba 1 on Turke J 11in America ha lc 1rn -J to Ii c omd Lhri c in the shadow of the UnitL d States howe er konsion and di o1grcements over issues - uch COltnfcr-nan otks o rntion human rights and the 11vin1nnwnt ill pcri1xlically complkatc relation- lJ l The last gmup chiefly consists lf l'lo c allic and rt'lafr dy new talt ' Members of this grnup see thi t nitcd States a' an amia- eeHFl8EHflAl U U S corp0tate presence and U S style uniforms in Honduras FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 45 IV Regional Assessm en ts Power hubris and greed are the sins of Western hegemony led by the United States - Kanfl Bajpai India Scholar 1998 the lack of il Even Rus ia and Chi na r1 co llil I ' the inh rcnt i onomii aLl 'an- qu stion hy Asia and Europe The fc 1r is 1ha1 these rl'CO l 'fY phms o Hr more lt lgc prohkm th rn - nlutinn l l S -Cuh m rela of glnhal -tahility The e 1lnd fear is oI pcrl l'ivl'll Am rkan 'hortsi htcdncss in il apprnachc' '1 _ m lad uf options -to l ritkill in1crna1ional C Tll ' aml is u Curr m tkci - ions h the ll 1F and World Bank - Amcril'itn-domin ih li in 'tilu Hm lww Dl n 1 allc LI imo 1i11ns pn cnt another ca in point Canad i ornd th o European Union han i conomi anll diplo111atk diffcrcm l 's with Wi1shing 1on mer 1igti1 -11i11g lht U S l 'lllh ir o 1111 C11h11 The American Century is not over it has just begun - Josef Joffe German Scholar 1998 U The U S presence in many parts of the world Is not only dictated by our own national strategy but lhe a$pirotions ot thosq ablOOd to pursue whor we have managed to achieve ourselves and feel secure in the pt0eess iecognlflon of these deslros will remain one of our many challenges In the 2 rsr century both as a leader and a civiUzalion U The United States will remain the sole superpower through its economic political military cultural and technological superiority for at least the first quarter of the next century Some states and non-state groups will challenge the assumptions of American hegemony and reject the notion of Pax Americana outright but will have limited power and few opportunities to change the status quo To a large extent the United States holds the keys to the future of the global security environment 46 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED IV Regional Assessments Mo or Po wen Major Powers Several states or groups of states ore expected to be the major powers in 2020 Three of the five major powers are Asian reflecting the region's expanding importance lktwccn now and 1020 no state will he able U RUSSIA EUROPE CHINA to match the worldwide strength md influence of the l 'nitcd State in ttonm ut c11llL c1ive political ec mornk 11 'c hnologil al military and cultural JAPAN power However lhere will cxi t a it 'l cl group of INDIA nations - including Russi 1 China and India wi1h 1 apahili1ks thal are an echelon ahove thost ' of otllt 'r rl'gional pmn rs and nations Thc - e major powers will routindy L' o crl inlluenL e within lhdr own regions and in some a 'cs or cJimeni ions will exert i11 lu e11cc on a lohnl - calc They will r t 1in uniqu' capabiliti' os to h11Lh a'iSi'SI or fruv lrnll U S polil'k' o and intcn 'sh Relations tween 1nd Hmong the m ljor pow rs and the Unit' d S1 11c will be a primal ' fa - U The Chinese multipurpose combatant JIANGWEI FFG and fts follow-on the JIANGWEI II ate in tneasur9 part of China's PIO ected lnlluence within the East China Sea li r shaping 1hc future environment inl rnational i ccuri1y lJ 1 In thi- l'll ironmem diffcrcnn - llf 1 r'll' cli iC among the m jor po 'ers l1uld hccurnl ' mmc prnnoun cd lx-'l at1 1 ' or national poi ition- on key is u s Will Tht c 1 ountril L'OlllJJl ll' l 'l l JlOllli cally and polili ally noer regional and g lohal intluem c market - invc I and a 1 ci- i fl technology Thm1g h k i s likely 1 ompe11tion for stratcg ic advantage and resources 1 ould be expre sed through mil imcnt tary power Among the U Joint endeavors such as the Franco-Gelman Eutocopter nger attack helicoprer represent part al the colfect ve effotts of Europe to compete with fhe U S in the defense industry UNCLASSIFIED m'-ljlll powers China and Russia are likely tn ht ' the rnm t halknging ti1r the Unill-'d Swces FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 ----------- -- --- 47 IV Reg1ono Assessments 11vssio Russia _ _ _ 1 ' - 1 tt oi-o b 1l 1 4 C -s oooo ' 111 1 o o - tiii or t- - -1 - r ' _ o er rt 1 j POLITICAL- ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 48 FUlURE THR'EAT 1999-2020 6E0RET IV Regional Assessments ----- - -- ----------- --- - b 1 1 4 C UJ Russian People's National Party anger and discontent on the political frtnge - - - - - - - - '' _________ FUTURE THllEAT 1999-2020 _________ __ 49 IV Reg1oriol Assessments ---- --------------------- ------------------- -- -- ---- Russia bK1 1 4 C U Russian Central Bank lroubles foster fflor among the citizen1y anc I provide a permissive environment for a shadow economy -- - - --------- 50 --- - ----- ----- -- - ----FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 - - ' IV Regional Asses rnen ts RUS$iO UNCLASSIFIED Russian Federation Demographics AiJ9Dlsb1buti 130 t 80 75-79 7 74 -66-69 61 64 _____ ____ _ __ ____ _ ___ 4 1 oW J$-3 I 30-34 29 f-- ----4-----'- r ---r--- --'---1- i 11150 11 0 1990 32 1S 1t 19-14 S-9 IM IQ10 654 210123456 6543210123o58 Papulati - mill- Popui tiol'I- millklN LiteE 1 -- m - I M i lilew ncy at CJ 1 50 YNo low'' b 1 1 4 CJ --- ----- ---- ---------- ------ -- ----------- ---- --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 51 -------- - - - IV Regional Assessments th um1ell paudty lf rcsourl es avail ihlc to deal with them Lhc wnditicm l f Russia s military will not improve substanti dly over th ' next decade and in ' Ome area - could get wo e Gi en the magnitude of forces Al even pmhl 'm and th' the l'Xtreme Russia's military could instituli lnal c ollapsc puncluatcd hy mililary unrest mutinie 'i and violent political intervention U Russian troops working for food fa ' defense funds h 1vc forced a Rus -ian emphasis 011 nm kar weupons which in Lum ha ll'Cclcrntcd the de1erio- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ration in con t ntionill fore capabilitie This downward piral caw Russia with extremely unauracti've options for dealing wilh the r giona l couffo ts territorial disputes f l acekeeping operation and terrorist threal th 1t il will mn t likely b 1 1 4 c Limited f 1cc over the next le adc UNCLASSIFIED Russia Defense Spending Scenalios 1997-2005 -- De1enM Spending lndu 1997o100 120 ---- 100 - 80 60 40 20 - --- Q Chronic Weakness Strengthened Regional Power I I I 1997 1991 1999 I 2000 I 2001 - -- - - - - - - -- - 52 I I 2002 FunJRE THREAT 1999-2020 2003 I 2004 2005 Russio longer-Term Potential Strategic Forces Beyond the next d ca lc prolonged politicul am I cl onumic c lirtkuhy prohably will yield 1 chronicallv weal mililan thal coulLI do liltlc bcy11nd defend Rus1 ia' hordcrs Such a fon c woulu pose less of m extcmal thl 'Ul than an internal danl cr due Lo its in tatiility and qUt '' tionablc n liothilitv partkularly if called on for inh mal dis11 1kr and thrcuts However a chroni ally WL ak Rnssia might llso have a greater pro pcnsity lo compc ons 11c by rto orting 10 rllhcr mean- - urh as l' O 'crt opcratiuns or dipkl matic grnndswnl ling The possihility 11 1cltisls1har under the ri hl conditions - d fl -' ti c political ka lcrship u taincJ c1 onumic progress and successful military reform --- Russia 1 ould emerge I0 yc trs l'rom nuw as l 1rcll lhcned regional f IWl'r with 1 ' ' i nilil'an1lv rcdun c 1 hut 1111x lcrni1l l military strl'ngthcnl d Ru i 1 t ou Id play u grc ah r rnk in intl rnational military cff11rt - - ul h as pc act kt'Cping npcrnlions Vhcther it would l'lllploy i new strl n th in i 11upcralin or kss hdpfol -ways hmn-vc r wnulll llc nu nn tile will of ih kmh rs b 1 1 4 c R itilictitiun of START II in ih i um nt form prohahly will nol 1x i ur Acct'plJOl'C with signifo ant modi til at ion ollld i ondi lions is nwrc likely The t' l'l lllLlitirnh will l 'lllllplii alc the impkml n1a1io11 of S'l RT II and impcdi prog rcs- 011 a START Ill l ltimah ly l ontinucd c l onomil in 1 ihility will push ST RT II furlhc r down on the Ru- ian on rnmi ni 1 cr 1 I 1 cnd i 11 will iJ 11 e11ntinU ' 111 hi o hlold hn W t 111 1hi rnad1ina1io11s of Ru o An nil'illl tdation' invnh'ing muhipk i suc sm h 1 rraq 1 nd Ko o 'O trl aty Russia's lo11g-tcrm 111ili1 1ry dirci tion shou IJ hctrn1ic deal l'r by around 005 Prnhlcrns wilh ST1 RT II ratifkation whl'll he lasting imp u I 1lf k 1der hip trnn- und morl' import Hll funding shorlfolls o ilion and till' l lll odivcncs' nf cffurh al ha 'I delayed hto co1wl r ii111 of SS- I and C 'onomk rcl m ry mili1ary n form anJ SS-1 lJ 'Y'tl'ms to th _o SS-n This i a 'hon ll'rrtl prohlcm Age and life C1cn- ion opcrdcfc n c inuustry re tructurin priori1i1ing ati11m will forn rl olutiun of the issUl' and mo lcmizing will he nion o apparent - omi 1i111 o i11 the next 1kc ade Dcployml nt of the mad-mohile SS- 7 C pccl ed ictwccn WO ind 2005 1hus upplanting the aging SS-25 systems The prospects for llu5Sio's submarine force look bleak tor lhe next decade EGRET FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 53 - - - --------- ------------- --------- - ------ ilussia b 1 1 4 e b 1 1 4 Cj Thi ' Lon Romg1 o t ia1ion CUl ann of the Rmsia11 slratl'gk triad remains viahk Th o hulk of the lkct is UITl 'ntly crnupml of I BEAR H 'lralt 'gic lxlmht r A i unili- rnnt number of BLACKJACK and BEAi H Mrate ic hombcr were lo h 1vc 1 v ntu ill ' b en 1cquircJ from the l krainc b1 11 lhcSt' plan appear Lo ha 'c hccn ahandonc l The aircrnh poorly maintainl d and no longer operational are imh' a l hcino di- manl l d anu ue mwcd -- -- 54 -- -- -------- ---- - ------- - FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 ------- ---------- IV Regional Assessments of Russian SlK icty Russiilll criminal groups have entrenched themselves in the counlry's politic il economic military ind ocial fahric They undem1ine dt mocrncy at home and an an increasing international threat by virtlJe of their involvement in alien smuggllng narcotics and Wt' lpons tratfa k ing and thdr penetration of the economic and financial seclors tif soverdgn stales There is increasing evideni e that Ru o ian criminal activity is expanding rapidly throughout Europe Thailand hracl South Africa and the Carihlxan a well 1s in North Central and South America Russian Black ack plans cancelled b 1 4 C Weapons Though the financial crunch has been felt m the c fon e infrastru1 1ure consolidatio11 and continued efficient training will allov the LRA to 1naintain readine s for the foreseeable fu1ure Other Security Concerns Environmental Degradation for Proliferation Poor e-'urity at variou wenpons and matcriel-rl lated fat ilities unsdtlcd political economi and social condit lnns the need for hard rnrrcncy in ukquate la ' enforcement capabilities and the growing power of organi7 ed t rime comhint to increase the prolifrrntion threat po d by Rus '-ia Russian strategic forces have adequate security at opcratillnal bases and missik storage facilit ic w pr - ve1lt the then of complete mi' ilc yslcms However fa ilitics fonncrly dedicated to chl mical and hiological 'l m'farc programs an k- easily controlled at least the next decade Russia wlll be unable ALTERNATIVE FUTURES to ucal effectively with ib ronnidahlc environmental challenges - - mainly cvcre air and water pollution am inadequate fr1cili- cwrnl po1cnt ial future ' nomain pos itil S for solid anti hazardous waoac dispo al hlc Although their prnbubiliLy may appear luw their impact would be nf ur- Thc c prnhlcms will undermine tile hcallh of Ru sia citizens oy incrca - ing infant lid nt magnitude Ihat they 'arrant menand aduh mortality rares and in1 idents of tion Ru sian policy could rcgre s and rcsull in the wiling back of politi al and di casc Furthermore the i sue will 1m c economic reforms Rtissia clllild be come substantial threats to olhe r redons Russia politically and militarily aggr ivc pollutes o1djaccnt sea tiy uu 1ping industrial and municipal wo istes and chemical toward stat 's in and adja ent w its n ar munitions anJ i - likdy lO continue to be ti ahroad As t entral c ontrol tfoinl nttcs a lll' jOr generator 01' U7llfll' deplcting SUb civil W lf could erupt within the Ru sian Federation A large-snile environmental talll t' 'S and carbon dim idcl hum initarian disaster could brim on a accident testing the govcrr rn nt s Expand in Criminal cth ity - Takin ' nuclear ability to respond ad 'anLagc of Lb chaos aJ'flicting the whole SECRET FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 55 -- - --- ------ - - - - - - - - - Russia b 1 1 4 iC U Russlon miJltary personnel ponder their futures STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS b 1 1 4 t U Protests against the Russian govemment I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia If is a riddle wrapped in a mystery insids an enigma but perhaps there is o key That key is llussian national Interest - Winston Chutch1ll ----- -------56 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 Europe Europe iU Europe will conlinuc tn focu - imcmally for at lcai I the m oxt hn1 decades El onomic and political intcgrafa1n within the Eumpe m Union EU will proceed ut a gradual pact' wilh periodic surges Germany will remain the primary engine for Europe an integration Military integration will follow a slower tn11 k primarily through NATO under the auo pices of the Eumpc rn Security and Dcfonsc ldeniity ESDI I The United States will main a de faclo European power by virtue or its political and econnmir interests md rnvetcd military capabilitic - ' ' ' 'tat oo No overwhelming convcntioTllll d r at will challenge Eumpt ' through 2020 Still Europt' will rclain l'om erns over residual military capatlilities Of morl' pressing l'Oncem will he the continued llut thc c funds will be marked primarily instability in southcastem Eumpc and Eur- for ne - ssary modt miz ation pn jccl asia as wc I a - contingencies in North Fumre defense ministcri- and military planAfrica the Middle East and the Persian ner face wmpctition with sol'ial progrmrn Gulf Lesser c 1111licts m11ionalist mow- and a gnw ing number of poliLkians who ments and c1hnk strife in Europe will pcr- ha c no military experience or 111 rnof' ' of ist in southeastern region The fral lious c mflic1 The current socialist lih in Euroand low-level conflict in these regions will pean governments will guaramec this trend 111 t allow easy integration into the rcs1 of cunlinue for the nex r four to llve yean Europe as the fragile nature of the politi- The end of 1he Cold War and decreased cal el onomic omd sodal nv1ronment will spending is th underlying ftKtor in the curli ave the region SUst' eptihle to terrorism rent au mpts to integrate European defense ouul or1 lanized l rime Eump will rema in ani I lel hnology wmpanies indined to look lo the Unitt d States for a continued military commitment as the sur- Eu opcan consolidation will pn gre - esl counterweight against such instab11ity lependmg on the oRoralJ economic cl1maic particularly from Russiu It is remotely pos- and the dynamics of corporate politics The sible that the spread of instability or the primary goal of consolidation is the cre pillover of conflict in Russia Eurasia or ation of robust European sec rors to comsoutheastern Europe could precipitate a pete with the siT ab e U S defense-related regional war in Europe firms lt is also hoped that this consolidation will facilitate technical innovation and Because of the overall low threat per- thus narrow the technology gap with the l Cption European defense spending has United Slates Success in the laner will decreased significantly over the pa t decade enhance NATO interoperability for the and is 1101 projected to increase signifi- short term but will likely fosre r c ominued cantly over the nex t JO years An increase industrial and technological espionage as of J to 2% is possihle beginning after 2002 well The open nature f the U S R D Ru sian SEeRET FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 57 V Regional Assessments EuroPe mans wane to uaraotcc that the Frendt arc pah hed into NATO cwn though they arc not fully integrated into its military sfrncture Germany under a Social Dcnux rat Greens coalition 'ill still pledge fide lit ' to the relationship with France hul an he expected lo ontinuc pursuing other Euro an tie U French llatoltJ Rghter t onununity i - it - C l C ttcst grl'atl'sl vuhtlornt'iility td anta c mu its The partkularly with the Labour government in the U K with which it ha more in common This is nof to ia ' thi1L Lhc relationship will be rast off but rather th tl i1s importance 10 Genmmy will be uch thm the Gcnnun will mil rcfl xiwly l' Oni ult with Paris if thl'y fod their narional ink r sl arl' at stake The is - u ' f suburdina ion to the agenda- of other Europc an slHll's and of the United St 1tc os will continue to he 1 Jri ing f u tor in Fr 111n uccasion ll a111 1gonis1i otllitmk ts it pushes its own agenda This factor wil1 l' 1m1inuc to inhihit the pace ul Europi oan intc rntion and add 1 omplexity hl the lransatlanti link Fram o- icrman rdatinnship will rl'main a fundamental p irl of runtinucd The Germans will co11lino lo n c l Eurnpc tn cconoinic and politkal intcgra the Frl'lKh in some mca om to l ondul t tion It v ill chan c perhaps si uilic mtly ictions anJ make dc il' ions in thi ' Euwbut not dcdinc The uriginal Fn o1Kh moliP'- tll c nntext that 1hcy l'ilnnol rnakt alone V ltion for l 1upn 1si1ing the rd 1tionship for ti ka - 1 the next 5 lo IO l'Ur Tkyond with Gl rmany was To 'llsurc thal the Gerthat the nc xL gcn rulion of Germans mans wcrto fully an hurcd in the Wl'st and l t Uh 1 l 'ithcr sec thcm o cl 'CS as a larger to prc Clll thl'ir rct'lllcrgcnl e as a ht ' l'parl of the um of Europt or the sum mllnic power Now and for the future the itself given a sul cssful European Union Frendl want to cn urc 1 similar GL'nnan and NATO cxpan - ion to Lhl' East This anchor in the European Uninn Th Gergcnt oration will 1101 kc the weight of history omu will h'-' more inclined to apprliach j suc dirt l tly il' a k uh r of Europe with 1hc hto11cfi1s of C il'l'lllLms in mind Depending in pan on the prt-l em the U S maintains in Gt'rnrnny GermanAmerkan rdations l lwutJ c 'ily remain solii I lhou h defc111 e Cl'Klpcratiun will hto frustrated periodically hy differing opiniom on priorities I U l The entranc of Poland th Czc1 h U Notwegian and PollSh 50ldt tS worlcfng together In the NORDPOt brigade --- - ---- 58 Republic md Hungary inio NATO during 1999 has ushered in a period of growing pain ' that will last for the lltlttcr part of the ne t decade lmewpcrahility in the expamk' 1 allianct' will t hallcng d fnr at ------- FUTURETHREAT1999-2020 - - - - -- - - -------- l ---- - - - - - - - - - - - --- - - IV Regional Assessments Europe UNCLASSIFIED European Demographics o Oiatrlbution T - --- - - j -' __ - 7-7 o i I __ 1 l _'h I IO i-i---- -- io MIF IUf 19 I i 70-74 155-et - 55-H I0-154 40--44 3HI 30-J4 n-a 20-24 a a n I ' Lite Eopectancy- _ o__ _ u 6 m J 11 11 10 1o 5-9 0-4 n U U lca't the ncxl 'i yc in 1 lhc new m mtx r now in lhl' alliallL't ' m1 lil cly lo IC1 oI free to ko -otc le s 11tcn1i1111 u1d monic' tu lkf1 n l' imprn l'mcnl' ind mor to qualifyin ll1r Eurupc u1 Union mcml'll rship mJ Sluval ia ill he cogni1mn i1f thtoir posilit n 011 the fring1 ' Poland in p 111ie11lar will frd 1 ocnrl' in future ottk mpts Ill c pand it inllucn'- c in 11011hc 1 t Eumpt ith the goal tlr hr11a llonin it' comllll rcial intc orcsh t J Oki Sm icl tlJ ught proL c c will h M' After the ar llOO Europe o 1 rn1IJ ti 11 c a Jowly W l lining pupulatilin llli drop in hi11h r uc will htogio 111 taki ii' toll on t111 o workforce attt r 010 with st idily aging Eumpl Jn popul c Ry 11 ll the imroct will he ldt m1l tly in l' i 1ing odal mid politic al polidc' that ha c not all' 'aJ t- cn K Cx uninL tl E 1rly 111 l il' puri l- l along with 'loi l- s of Sm it t Warsaw P i r l 4uipm1 111 Th1 laucr ill come with relined dcfcn c planning whik the former will 1akl' C Will years OJJ thought pnx esscs will remain prcv 1lcnt al the wcirking level for some lime ' lh 'W kadcrs force chang S from the top llm __ '_ 5 I S m U H n hut 1hc cxpcricnL' of S TO and Partner'-hip for Pea l' IPtP ncrdscs should fal'ilitutc thi pn ll C' ' The pn l e- oi rcstrw tu1ing and huikling lll'W cidl mul mililary i nfmstructure will takl' the- bl'lll'r part of thi next two dc r uicl't However increased economic tic with Wt tcrn Europe m l th lJ S han already hdpcd this proc i s The new members also dlange 1hc geopolitical 1 onvironmcnl for Gcm1any by moving rhe 1lli mce frnnt line considcrahly to the ca t Gemiany in thl next century will be more 111 ca'-C uu I a Wbiliting force in C 111ml Europe Conversely the Poles C1 ech and Hungarian md NATO hopeful like Romania Slo 'enia Bulgaria U lmmig mts make their woy to Italy -- - - - - - - - -- -COtfFIBEtlllhl --- FUTUllE THREAT 1999 2020 59 IV Reg1onol Assessments Europe UNCLASSIFIED Population Comparison Southem Europe and Notfh Ahica 350 000 300 000 r-------------------------- - - North Afriu - - Southern Europe 1 i i I 1950 NATO will seek to redefine its role and missions in the aftermath of the Balkan experience 1960 1970 19IO 1990 n lircmcnl aml he gmwing immi mtinn from Nn11h Afril i and tJw MiJJk East will have to he halanccd clfrl ti dy lo stem workfon l' hort agc and llornl-stit' disc 1 llllen1 The halkngl ' hruu hl 1m hy non-L i1izcns will grow si nifit antly JXltcnti 1lly creating l i il o trifl' and lh'l'StrL ssing Eurofl' 'Un Holforc systl'ms Eumfl ' ill have lo take a unifilotl approach or fa1 c 1hc prthpl' l l of inadv 11cntl c rcaling friL'tion 1wer diverging immigration i1lidcs Already Italian anJ Spanish law cnfon l'ITlcnl or1 ani1ations arc 1 11 ing prc- surc to 1 011trol t he im rcasing migration In the next 10 years use of mililary - upporl as l ' - uch as logi tical r 'il cs and mililary polil'C - to aid th se civil efforts c 1uld ina as ' 111 the long run 1 ontinucd u - c of such limited defense re llrccs wuld hinJcr their av lilability und cfTccli cnes- for u- c in primary national - e urity missions Alternative Futures Funhcr dimini hing ecurity concerns iii'iikcly kad lo furthL'T ithdrawal of L S troop 'll1c continued absem c of a unifying threat could cncour igc an in rL a - ingly indcpcn lent and self-a scnivc EurOfX' Rus ian 60 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 in lhto l' urnpcan Union mill Wl' tcm Eurorcan Union WEU prohahly under onw l'ornhination of' Ge1111a11 i- rend1 aml British ll 1dcrship l csritc oix r -1ing u1Kil'r lite uisl' of i uninn this 1rran cmcnt l llllltl a1 times pmvc In tic hallow This rnuld lead to prntrn1 ll'd dl cision cydc resulting fmm the l 'nnllicting ugcnlia of lc 1dcrs omd group i re tirj l'llt ind rc1 iJi 'bl Russi 1 over Iimc l ntllJ pwmotc i n n nses in ddcnse spending and rci nvigur itc N TO Pnossurc tn accommodate those rnuntries that wi h 11 1 he nflilialcd with the 1llian c would be ctH1o idcrabk A a result NATO wuuld USl n ntcr polilknl l vcra c military strength mJ international 'intlucn e to pre 1 111 o uch an a rcssor from moving again - t a nmntry not in lh ill iann but nonl'thclc s con siJcred scnsiti c cnOUGBPh lll dcfcn L Sudt a scenario oulJ easily muddy n lations with Rus lia and funhcr complicate the internal operations of NATO and the EU THE BALKANS Pervasivt ethnic tensions will rs isl for a1 lca I the ncxr IO tn 15 yc rs perindicall rupti ng into viol nt Maintcnam c U 60 FIBEH'ft AL EurOJUi nf credible pcacckec ping tim cs will he m otcssary to c omain Lhesc violem outbursts and dt tcr larger conllkts lntcrn uional peacl keeping fon cs onlinuc lo Opl'r tlc in a complex environment tha1 poses si 1-niticanl chall 'ngc to the cstahlishmcm nf a stahlc and nduring pca1 c Compli mce with existing and future pet11 c agn -cmenh will gcn rnlly cnntinoc a long as pca c opcrn1inns remain 1 redible and 1he variou c ounrrics l 11 1im1' and groups rl 'Cll llize potential adnmlages Huwcvcr the wntinucd rrcscncc of NATO or other inttomational pca ekccpers for omc c ' t1 omkd period is nc essary for the maintenance and 'iustainmcm of peace Overall pnlitil al anJ c1 lol111mic reform for the region will pr11c c- J - lowly Sc 'cral impe linh nts sudt a' 1hc lad ot' dl l'ttiw anti tlctnoaalit leadership rampollll corruption anJ the i11 raincd divisiveness or lh varillUs cthnk grours will forthcr d 11nr n prospects for reform Bctwl cn O I 0 and WI i a genl ratinn will have n ached adullhorn 1 uftcr living th1 1ugh thl vark1us aiscs in Yui nsluvia Bosnia Alhania Kosmo am I St'rhi 1 Unless 1 onomk and politil al nmdi1ions improve markedly the cydc of violi m c could fl pc 1t itsdf through l'lill rnc s over past events Sl rhia llllCt' dominant mililary and political position in the region will likely rnntinuc to erode 01l r rnups in thi'i region 11 ' h as lhc Ho niak 11r Knsovar Albanians will likdy ' Cd 'ays to exploit this trenll ilnd achieve rl'trihution Although ito overall tcrriwri il g1lals han hccn generally 'iatislicd Croatia also will vi W this trend as ctn opportunity IO dominate the nonhem Balkans f ion The issue of ethnic Albanian nationalism will remain the single most complicuting fa1 tor in achil ving 'itability in thl southan B 1lkans b 1 1 4 C Look for the emergence of a larger Albanian cultural-political amalgam in the region FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 61 IV Regional Assessmer1ts THE AEGEAN tional l ommunily would interc dc by lhton to stop the fighting Such 1 contlkt whkh probably would -rart in the Acgeoin woukl be primarily an air and naval fi ht with u Turkish aum k 1111 some nl lhi mailer Greek ishmds in the Ai ean omd possihly a limited ground opc orntion in Thrace A cunllicl thaL hegins in lhc A gean would not ncccs iarily spread to Cyprus but such expansion shoul 1 not ht ruk l out Turkey is e iipcclcd to hold u quantitative and qual itillivc cJgc on fore rnpabilllics though Greece will make modest improvement to it air and air llcfen - c cupahili1ic Gr l k 111ili1ary l'quipment acquisitions in 1h coming_ years i iill lessen the pros1 1C1 'ls '' i calaslrnphk- dcfc 1t ar 1 hc lwnds ofTurLtoy Alhl'lb anll 1 11koira will i untinul lo hcunabk to rc- olvc lhc pl'ill'lil'al arn l political issm s in the Al gcan that umkrlic 1hc- tensions hlotwct'n lhc two counlric B1llh prercr to avoid war Nonelhekss a crisis involving Aegean s lVl reignty issuc -1 on Cypms cuulll t'mpl and csl alatc into an unwanlctl conllkl ht rnu c of JX'fCl'ivcd 1m v1 -'ali 'I ' a1 tinns or miscakulutions In lhc l'l'Cnt of hnstilitie - Turkey and GrC cC1 1 x ct and phm for i short l '0111lil 'I 3-4 dap and a 11111e that the intcrna- f' lr J Turl cy sec its position as 1n t'pi1 l'llll'r of fhrcc unstahk regions tilt Balkans the Cm11 asus and tilto Middle Eal I This lough neighhurhnod will i ontinm o to Ix- pl 1gucd with problems of ethnic striko rl 'ginnal conflk1s rdigious fanaticism in1crna1ional 1cm1rism omd wcap1 111s of mo1ss dcstnwtiPn Turkish rclalions ith Syria will incr asingly he s1rnincd OH'r liistrihution of waler from 1l1c Euphratrs Rin r Syria's support I'm the PKK Turkey's military c uopcnnion wilh Israel md S yrian dai1hs hl Ha1ay Provincl ' Buth ln1q and lrnn will cmnpli1 atc Tmld h inltorest in 1tw rcp ion As with Syria lhc Kurdish is U ' l'urlhcr strains relation wilh lrm1 1 ' 11' These i sMIC'i arc in additil111 10 Turkey's close rdalions with 1he United State and hudtling rclatiom with lsr 1cl Iran hus the polcntial of lx-comin th mon important Turl ish idvc or - iry in 1hc Middk Ea 1 Competing inten -- 1 - in C nlral t - ia imd the Caucasus and the foc l lhal Turkey is a l '- u Jar Muslim state will pla 'C Anl arn at odd- with Iran Turk -o forceful solutioni m regional prohlcm- with lrnq anti Iran also ha 'c the potential for bringing Ankara quickly into conflicl with U S inkore t C U'l Although Turk ' appear militarily position lo urvih any of the 'l tcm 1l U Turkish Army Aviation Blackhawk 62 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 challenges md rlomain 1 rei ional 11owcr the Turli i- h ruling lite will focc a fundam n- SE6RET ff6fiORN IV Regional Assessments furape Lal probJcm that will likdy determine if in fa l it can do Ml It i almost im oncei 'abk hat within th next ten Yl'ms thl n will not hi a point at which the ongoing idt ological dash bctweton cuhiri m and an incrcusin ly fcrwm bh1miM politkal moocmcm will ri ach a dimax Sl cular forcl s k d by tbc milirary an cum ntly in charge and will almost c r1ainly remain s11 for ac lc tsl lhl next tiw yl'ars It is quc 1io11ablc hm o'l r whctht r this dominance l'Hn las dally if the rl'liginus lim or 1 on1ir1uc ro grow Just as the rnJlitary supprc sion nf the Kurd' l t'd thl' Kurdish insurgloncy continlll'd otforts LO quash lslamisl polirkal lllll ClllCllh in thto mi1hl of a rdi ious UJ 8elaru$ian Presldenf lukoshenko sees fhe revi al l'OUJll kad lO lil'Cjlt I ui ision in Belarus-Russia Union 0$ a natural merger of oddy and serious urhom ioknl 'e The l l'' f two ftatema stales qu' sriun rhl'tl V 'ould Ix- how long th milililry - sc min ly t umin more and Givc on lh di mal 't nc of lhlo lklmusian more estrangL d fmm l'i ilian ' t1'kty l'l tlll lllly a poti ntially unstahl - 1a11 1 ould 111 1in1ui111 11n1n I tlrcall ists u11 that hurJi or Ukrain will n1111inuc a halanL nl rdation hip v ith BELARUS- UKRAINEJfo sia - if illl thin as a deternont 'illt ' R1h ia is l111 hkrcd ii' 11nly cxlanal MOLDOVA 1lm n1 In adJitinn Kic will ominuc to ptir uc closer poli1i1 al 1 unnmit and mili o POU NO o - ' tary oopc oration with Europe and 1 Al O ' o C'H'ntuall l'stahJi hing holh as iis prinmry o BELARUS Sl'l'Urily n lation hip Thl' ecom m1il' lTi is ' - ' in the Ukrain o will limit military 1 apahilif 1 _ lil ' t 11r th lll'Xl 5 to 10 l'ar l lnldorn's ' MOLDOVA - J pn ihl oms with it- hrl'alo 1 ay Tr msJnL ister ROllANlA J r inn will t 11n1in11t o 11 l 'r the 11 xr dlorntk j hut ithoul jgnitit' rnt l'- t al 1ti1111 uf tht UKRAINE - ' RUSSIA conlli 1 or re olu1i1111 BUL _ ' - l 'l EUROPEAN SECURITY f -t-- ---- ARCHITECTURE $-oe mc -4o - ' These 1hrl'C states will pose opponuniliL' for both coo ration and th tiun hL'l h't 'n Europe Russia 111J th ' Unitc1l State Of thc e Hclarn idcntiti 's m1hr closely with Moscow It alrl'ady ha- close mi1itary cnoperJ tion with Russia with politi1 al im gration hy 2tXl 'i not being ruled out ll10ugh thcM ' military ti s pmc no near-term l onvcminnal threat it i wtirlh noting that the new NATO an a of responsibility will be in dircL t cnnto u t wirh Bclaru Euro will have lnll 't d dm l'r lo ouilding I rcdihk Jl rhap' much Jilfrrcnl 1 u- ricy -tructurc in NATO hu1 the l d ti 1n face many impetlimcnh from the Europl an lhem i- lve Political coh1 ion or Europe will hl come lJUally imporlanl to th a tual ai lvanta i 'S llf l'ollc1 li 'C ' el urit The Je t lnpment of ESDI ill pro1 c d halting for at least thi n xl Je -ade Its su cl s ful implcm nrarion will depend on wntLnucd support from NATO-- hut C'J - -- - - --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----63 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 Europe Europe Thry still cc the alliance as fundamcnt tl to their sct uril ' 1 om crns and will not make any effort to ch mge lhi' relatinn hip for the forcst'Cablc future France l Ontinuc to lx licvl' that the lJ S hits lllo much inOucnL c in European SCl'U rily Any intentions or cfti 1rts hy th- French to margim1li1 c or l ircumvent lJ S invol 'cmcnl will continut 10 l'X chcdcd by Germany and the l 'K anwng others The world has not become o safer place We still must invest in our security Dutch Defense Minister Fronk de Grave summer 1998 cially fhl' l 1 S - horh in lcadt'rship and rc ourctos In return Eumpe will ha 'C grcall r s1 curiry m1tonomy and the Wl' -tcrn European l'nion IEL' 1 or EC will have thl ahilily 10 con lut t some limilcJ but norwrhl'll s ind pcndcnl nfr ion ESDI l'ITorts will he an im1 1nanl l 'lcmen1 of the Comhinl d Joim T 1 -k Forw Plan From io rn to 020 collatioratinn primarily hctY ccn France iemtany the l ' K and Italy will cnh lllL'I ' mi it 1' l' 1pahilitics in sekctcJ arl'Js -ud1 a - - pcd 1l force anti l i -il-mili1a rv o ralions 1llvunl'cd a'wiunic and mi ilc 1 h ' dopmen1 The EunlJX' mis will slill lad i lll signifa ml J llWL'T prujcl tinn 1 1p 1hili1 m l v -ill rnntinlll' to rl'I - on U S lifl cap 1hililitos for extended or out-ol'-anoa op1 r itions an l sp ll c-tia t d C41 They rcco nitl' thdr lack of burden sh 1ring hut cmllcn l that 1hcy c4ually 1' han the risb Mmt Europcnn ll tl ion1 suppul'I grt 1h 'r imlcp1 1uk nc in ooc1 urit ' matters in principk hut lo nu wa11t ''' crc ite circum' lt tn1 es where lhl United State is 110 fongt 'r indincd to t ommil to tht sen1rity of In U S -RU lsian rdations lnlll'pl ndenl f uw111 an approad1r s to relation with Russia l'1'uld 1 onllict with l S goals and oh 1cl tiw- Russi i for iii part in Eumpci111 'l l U ritv wnukl prefer to l'l' il grr acer role f11r th Or anii'cttion for Scrnrity and Coopc rntion in Euroi OSCEJ with Cicnrnmy and or homno al ih cpicl'lllcr anti larg'- ly di 't1rc'-o l from lh'-' Lfni11 u Stale- U NATO Exercise ARDENT GllOUNO 98' - - - - - - ---- 64 addition the l'Volution of thl' Euro- an curity ardifL'l'ture t'o11IJ l'mnpl t 'all ' FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 Hv 020 vi11l1ally all European Oiltion- includin tht o Baltil' Slates md lcctcd Balk ms slates will he ilfliliatcd in omc wa with NATO With lhe acL c -sion of Pnlcmd llll' Cll 'h lkpuhli an l 1lungary fortlwr N TO cnl irgcmcnt is likdy tiut prohahly not for another 1-5 yl'ars Further cnlurgcment l't uld easily have the disad rnntagc of crcming an allianrc thnt is inl rca in IY difficult lo managl' due lo the inLTca wd multiplicity of icw ind con crns l o ues surrounding s l urity rcl1uircmcnts partkularly defcn l' 'pcndinp and burden sharin modemizuli 10 and ddcosc industrial com erns will be the most contcnliou Although no1thcm Europe will champion mcmber lhip for lhe Baltic swLes - indi 'idually or a - a gn rnp - anti southl '111 Eumpc will push for Romania Bulgaria and Skivenia NATO is unlikely to extend invitations to any of 1he c stales before OIJ J Howt ver the alliance will continue forts to assi t the states in restructuring their dcfcnsiv fon s and infras1ructt1rc The P1P will continue as a - - - - - - - - - - QHFl EPH1Al U8F8RU - - - ------- - - -- viable vehicle for security cooperation between NATO non-NATO European nation - and the fonncr republics of the Soviet Union PIP uccess depends largely 01t how U S engagemem is -iev cJ bv Ru ia in the prores lf Americans a e perCl'ived as bi ing overbearing or overly intm ive then the deliL ate - and often skepti al- nature of Ru sian perceptions will be swayed lo a pes imistic or noncooperative attitude Such an attitude could also develop if Mo cow is looking for I prdexL for non-cooperation a a means 1 1 funher its own agenda STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS W Russia's evolution is key lo Europe's stability What will be particularlv troubling is Moscow s inability to conm I criminal activity especially the illicit traftickinae m prnlifrration items if Russian Mx ial tur moil undermines ecurity UJ Europe is an extremely strong l CO nomk bloc on the world stage and will remain rhe first nr second largest tradin partner of the United States The Eumpea allies will remain Washington s foremost partners in a variety of security forums and military operations tP T P Thi continuaLion of reeional finan- cial crises could limit internal f ce modernization and other military imprm eme11ts thus having impl1raticms for the '-'apabilities of our European friends and allies tCl participate in joint military engagements U Exercise COOPERATIVE ASSEMBLY 98 U S vendors NATO peacetime decisionm 1king and planning ould easily be hampered under su h circumstancec W The enlargement of NATO to the east has expanded the rangi of responsibility and imerest for the alliance and has brought the organi7ation clo er to areac that will ri main un table for the nex t 10 to 20 years Poland the Czec h Republic and Hungary will continue to have a high degree of com em for issues such as organized crime and e trremism As members of the alliance they conld be compelled to call for indirect assistance from NATO member nalitlllS to quell such threats A oncened international in 'oJvement in the Balkans will probably be necessar ' for al least the next 15 years Such oper - tion'i will also highlight the- degree to which Euro can effectively respond c lllec tively with milirnry force and c ustain Gro vth real or pen ei'wed in the techthat level of invoh ement Rus c ian reacnok1gy gap between the U S and Europe tions to American and European efforts to will hinder interoperability and increase frictions in the alliance over defense indus- stabilize the Balkans will have broader trial developments and the alliance s mili- implications for the continent as a whole tary acquisition strategies The L s will bl Russian misperceptions ind NATO mi - seen as pushing too hard for acquisition of cakulations c iuJd easily lead to tl nsc relations in the future high t h equipment a ailuble only from S9NFl8ENTIAL N9F8RH FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 The Russian experience in dealing with NATO and the US 1n med1atmg the conftict with Serbia over Kosovo 1s likely to have lasting effect on Russian perceptions of the west 65 IV Regional Assessments - -- --- - - - o Europe If Gree e and Turk y l 'nler i1110 contlict one or lhe grearcsr miscalculations hy b1lth parti s ould he on the pt e l of entry of he int ernatinnnl community Greek and Turkish perL eptiuns hold Ehat any contli t would be sho11 p irtly because of outside intervention The potenti il exi t that any hl '- itancy by the re- t of NATO ro inti n ede could increa c and lcngth n hostilitie The United States will remain a de facto European power by virtue of its political and economic interests and coveted military capabilities U Even the delivery of humarntorkm aidisnof without chal 6nges to NATO Jhe British Royal Novy and Royal Ait Force HARRIEi aircraft have been combined under a Single joint command In order to achieve more etnciency In UK and NATO operations 66 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 - - - ---- IV Regional Assessments - - --- - - - - - Centmi Asiac na If o Caucosu Central Asia and the Caucasus ENERGY RESOURCES PROSPECTS PROBLEMS l U Thi Caspian Macro r gion '-ill be attracti c as a rdati dy n 'w lof al sourct' and marlct for l'lll rgy n soun cs and infr 1 1rrn nirc projLocts lntcnmti1mal intcrtost anti im l''llncnt in the oil and g 1s Jklds of lhis rc i11n will cuntinuc to gnn ' in conn rl '' ith thl' gll Oal d mand ror cncrgy Tht' region is cslim itcd l11 l 1111tai11 h o1v ccn I5 billion and hillil n hamoh i11 prmcn oil l 'SCf t's comparnbk to d10i-c hdd by the l 'nitcd Swtcs I U By 1hc liN part of the Ill' XI crntury inh n- iw exploration 1 ould rc ult in mu h h1r cr prm cn B rws upproal hing lcvch 11pcrulatl d at up lo l 60 hill inn bam b Thi would l'llUal roughly 5' of Thi ' pnivcn rcscrws of the Middll' East A- L ordingly h tY cn 20 I and 020 Lhc Caspi m Mano L'Olllu be l 'SJ insitllc fur -Vi to 50 of the ' 'orld -- roial pmduL ti1111 However during th next lk t adc im cstnr 'ill still ha IO conlcnd with nunu rou ohs1ade and ii sue including legal ownt 'bhip n ional in tabi lity routin of cxpo1t infra -tru1 turcs 111d tht ' role of Iran The natural resources and territory of the Central Asia region hove the potential to become the focus of violent competition for control and access over the long term anti Ru si m inlll1cnl'L' by - 'd in g W1 'l ll'lll tic K izilkh tan ill i ominm 10 pursue L'Olnomic rd 11ion ith The Wl' -t hnwcvo 'r h au'c of pnr imi1y md S11 'il'l cra ccn1r ili1 11i m dO l' lil' s wi1h l u' iil o ill l nntinuc for lhe fon '- ccahk ftnun Turkey will alsP nontcnJ for intlt1l'n 1 fm1hl r 1 umpliG1tin th d namil of thi' rcgi1111 1 nk 1ra - c ' Russia Ii a ll ' cful coun1 m 1hmw 111 lrani m cffo11 10 l 'x p 111u intlucnc ' in 1lw r1 ogi oll L1 Russi 1 will al quic- i c to both We - tern and Asian invc tml ' nts i IS long a Rull --ian entrepreneur arc included in th ' 1 1inccs ions Existing infra structure f KilitiL and nctwl rh - dc pitc thl 'ir poor ondil ion ---- will su ppnrt i-urh invest men I Hoth lr m am I China will prn- uc greater and political irwoh erncnrpilrticularly in Ccntr tl Asia - - rc ulting in 1he emct-gl '111 t of a new Silk Rmid ' l 'i'hd istan and At l rbaijan v ill resist lrn11ia11 Chilll L conomk U Oil workers repair de iclcs In drilflng liefds near the village ot Shlkhof near Bolcu Azerbaijan - - - ---CONFl9EtHIAL -- - --- - - - - - FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 _____ 67 IV f eg1onal Assessments --- - ----- - --------- -- Cenfroi As1aorid lhe Caucaws tary rnlatilily- partkularly in the Caucasus - will hamper 1 '1 onomil' 1 kwlopmcnt and investment The unique geographic feiltures of thl region - its remote and general lack of location infrastructure- v oukl complkalc any external cffi 1rts at force prnjc tion nr humanimriun opcrntions STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS For the next two le1 adcs NATO at a IJ Georgian 1efuf18' from the Goll region rest at a post ot Russian peoce-keepe1s in Napagevi Thl region will rnn1inuc in e pericncl ethnic tribal and other forms of imerncdne cnnllict Central A'ian pmhkms and C'cmro1l A io111 in 'oln mcm in l'lhni1 issues arc li ely 111 'l ill owr into hoth Chi11 1 and Russia Relation - tween thl' Unitr d Stakos and lhl vo1rious tatcs of thl' rl'gion should remain t tir-lu-l rnxi' a' manv of thlosc lal s l'Xplnrc c1 nomic lil's to lhc West Conlinul d pulitkal scx ial and mil i- eeNF19EUTIA t U0FQRH minimum will haw to Jevn e polilil al and pm sihly military-- resources 10 monitor anJ prevent thl potcmi il for in 111bili1y along its ca ll'nl hon ler I U l Central ' ia ould easily prow to he a friction 1011 hl twecn nation -ompcling for intlucm c md tCl'l s dcpc ndin on the rc ion s hmg term l conumk viahility Snm measure l f hroad i nopcratiun is not imJll1'' ibk a' long as inJh idual equi1ie' n ciw cnnsidcration lll l play in dl i ion mak in Cospian Oil P10cluctlon Millen bid oU - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 0 o R lsaie o Turkmenistan o Kazlthatan 3 5 3 0 A rerbllijan 2 5 z o 1 0 0 5 QI 199t 68 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FUTURE lliREAT 1999-2020 2012 2013 2014 2015 eeHFIBEPtfflAtffoeFeR ---- --- - --- ------- Asia IV Regional ' -- im their own positions in he l'C ion China wi II 11111 1 md1 up with 1x r-rnpito1 wealth of th1 o kadin ernnornic for 111other half-l 1 o111ury if then hut thL' 'hen i1c of its niw- ing L'l 'OllOlllY y jJI cm 'l't shin in the rc uilHWI ho1la11n If pt1Wl f Some couutric v 'ill wntiuue lo lag lichind in ceonomii dt wlopmcnt __ North Korc 1 Vietnam Lans Carnhodia Bu1111a Indonesia and pvssibly Malaysi i Thailand and lhe Philippinl'S Stability o cr the ne l dc1 mk will dcpcml on C l onomic pro grc and on 1hc r ginnal rnkos and the L ni11 -xl St ih os or fapan China_ l l i The Asian Flu ha' kd many tates to cul hack on 111ili1 ury pending Thh dcdinc nwy pep i t aflcr e onornic n covcry thouuh unresoJ 'cu sc1 urily 1 onc rn ill compel some Lo ontim1l' militm ' nwd rn italion_ Throughout the re ion ddi 1h1 ' pending remains subordinate to the top priority nf rconcm1it prngres- and gmwlh rt The t urrcnt pwhkms may reinforce nolationships within lhc Assm iatinn of Southeast Asian Nations ASEA and LhcASEA N Regional Forum U Rr Tile k'll- - IU DllH tl ' - 7 - l dl0JPYHU N _ __ o' - ' rJtJ1llf 111r - - - r _ CHl A 1 f ofXllll o - _ o oo 4- oo AUSlRAllA d1 111 k tuw ml n ' ional 1 urity L'llOJll'ralion will i o11ti11u1 o h n1w hut ilow may rl J lhL' dc in lo hlamc 11cighhori and c flornL'r' for L'l nnnmil w1'11 and 1 ould rod1 o ll S hilalL'rnl 111ll ddi on iw lies in thl rc ion E unomil' reforms also may fuel llorm - tic politiL al ch 11l ngc and n1111rih ut to inh 'm 1l im tahility in hi ' shnrl 11 rm Possible Flash Points ll rl Dc pitl' the I rend' wwanJ rL gil1nal n11 1peration Sl'Wral lnomin g i'isu l 'ould 1hrc i1cn tahilily in Asia lhrnugh 2020 1l Tai -an China goal is Jll' ll'dul rcunilkatinn on term ac1 cp1al'ilc to Bl'ijing hut mi- ll' lS in foilqm or a polil y change in hin t 1 ould prc1 ipil 1I 1m1jor i tJnllict rL' i Kor a Rehn en the Giants If th ' - orth Kor an 1hn at r cl des the lon tl'nll geupolitiral lfuggle bi twccn Jap lll and China fr11 influcn1 c on r Korea t uuht rl o LU face A unified Kmca c1ould k 1d lu new regional tensions ---- - ---- UNCLASSIFIED llQftGOl IA I U Shift in rdations imong nations will lff1 1 t the regional h 1lanl c Thl' North Kurc m military 1hrl'al ill diminish with its failin cconnmy altl11111gh it r tains sil_ nifo anl ca1x1bili1ic-s in missile- a11illcry an l SOE 1 s tlll' North Koreom threat wam Japan and Sn111lr Korea will rl'CX illl- l ' 1 _ ------ o - -- o ' 1l Asia's Cl OOlllllic c ns1s ha' l rdv unul'1111incd nalional and L'Olkctiw 'l'lt conlillcncc hut most Asian nutions will return to rl' Nmahly sining grov 1h over the nc' t lkt adc R1 i ovl'ry will he uneven wi1h om o cnuntric adopting 1 m c sful rl'fom1 hilc othl'r- rc ist nlx o - - 1r ' measures or fail to iind lhl' ri1 ht comhi tlinn llf poli ci s If growth resumes ns l'X ctcd the total output of Asia will ri L' to a lhird or the world II Hal though per 1 apita irn ome will remain low in mosl coumril's As essments and concern Var ------ --- FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 69 - - -- - ------------ ------ -- -- Aslo its import rcquircmt nls ill ro li e pothl 11ex1 two dccac l es Japan am I Korea will rl main hc wily dependent on imponcd oil Despite concerns un r 'nergy supplie'i no _ ian natiun is llkcly to dc vcfop the military 1 apahility to prott cc ourccs in or SL'a lines of' communication from 1hc Mil Idle East in 1hc Til'XI tv i1 decades ncntially over CHINA Economic OuUook U F Chino bofffeneclcs in distrlbu#iOn rathf r lhon a laclc of resources are rsspon ble for some SCCJtcitles tween Nu11h Kurca and lhl' South and i1s allil's nolahly the ll S rnntinul 's In Ix lfl rerritorial Disputes Mussi 1-Japan r Spratly hl 111Js an I mm1cn us South Chim1 Sc t claimanc - Chin 1-lndia India-Pakistan fapan-Korl'a Japan-Chi1101 China-Tah 111 Nor1h-South Kon 1 and pc issitily KurcaChina-Japan ii Korea is reunited l nmld rl' ult in myriad l'11nfro111atio11s thnic and Dnmc l il l onllicls Cultural oulll Schisms spi II on r into adjoining om is p tr itist mmcrncnts c xi- 1 und conlinul' to lluurish in sewrat Asian l'OUnlril _ Internal rnntlicl in lhl' Philippines and n lig iom - crnnumk l ontlii t in InJunesia arc c- rx ially 0Tri- 1m - I U Leadcr 'ihip ' hangt s Sul h changes may lc 1d lo p11litit al r t ' onomic changi wir h milit 1ry ons qucnl cs lU Energ_ Asia s nil impurl will rise significantly hut dc -pcndencc on import will vary China's primary sr1unx of energy will rcm iin domestK oal though 70 fon es using undercrnployl'J lahor and rto mrces rather than inl rcasing prmJucli 'ity ror ho alrl ady cmployl'd Thl'I is room f11r mor su h dfa il'lldc- hut othc-r fal tors will slow future rowth Hr l lnfras1ruclurl' Hottll'nttcks -- Ewn umkr Bcijinf' amhi1ious plan' u lrquatl' 1 sihk t Ul lJ I Owr the nex1 lwo 1 kcadcs China is likely 111 enjoy moderate gmwth hut nol as high as rate ' 'oecn durin lhc early I9k0s P isl growth has hccn h aslod 1111 rnarkc -1 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 cncr Y tr mspor1ation l o1111nunkarion anit ilion water di -trihurion md 1lhl r ph sical infr istnKtUrl s will require many dl't 1dc to huihl Worker Skill Len ls Sloc1mdary and rcrtiary education lcwb an very low anti industry ha 1101 dcvl'lupl'd thl' work prnc tkc man 1gcmt nl CX l '11isc and quality cnntml m cdi 'd in thl modern worl l I Ul I lJ l Environml'nl Economic Jcvdnpnll'nt has l oml' al great L'OSt to thl' q1wlil ' of China air waler and natural cnvinmmcnt -J rhi pS as hi h ' i'k of GDP Jll r year In the Jong run tht cconrnnic cost of thi pollution mu t be paiu either in dcmlllp rn ts or in dt dini11g health and productivity ll' J Weak l'inandal System Beijing could face a tinan 'ial crisis rnul h larger than lhe one that crippkd other Asicut countries during the pasr twn yc irs Ba1tkrllpl state UNCLASSIFIED Asia UNCLASSIFIED r--- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 Chinese Grain Supply million of tons r-- -- -- -- -----1 1996 2020 projeeted High -- - --- Base Case Low _Prod_u_c_t_io_n_ --- -l - t - -- - ---- ---636_ ---_- -- - -606-__-_____ _j op ptio n-__ __________ _1_-_ L _ _- __2_a_ __ ____69_s _ - H lSource' _ rld Ba - C in - 20___ _ _____________ _ 11wncd enlerprio cs SOEs1 cnonm u' had hank loans I tl' f lf GDP1 an l thc inahility lo Sl'Jlaratc urh in infrastrU 'lurt from SOE ' 'nership l rcak Ill intrnl t 1lllc wd1 of pmhkms If Thi - cl 'onumy dcdinC or hanh 11 'L' control of pri 'alc sa ing rh whoko slrurturto L ould ollapo with llormous cunsL'qucm cs l l If China nvoi ls this coll ip L' it will row aruund -'i'k per yl 'ar lll l appmuch lhl' lower rnnko lf lc 'elopcd countric' hy 2020 If 1101 it could fon prolrncted ri i that would leave most of the popul 1tion in Third World poYl'rty provoking widc - prtoad fru Lralion and politil' UI instahiliL - - - I ag c of dean watl r in China s citic-' 1n er the next 1v -n dCL'mk t l toclOd China i 111 mcct the hulk of irs food nt l d doll1L''tii ally if it irupll 'mem the rig hi agrkultural polkk' and 1ddn scs it' wall' prnhkms and the fl '' If tile world all i owr China's import nc 'ds for 1h frn ' l'Cahlc h11ur o IJLopcndcncL' on food irnpot'h hi hli ht' thl' importauci - to Chinn of a favorahk intcmati ln il cn iromm'nl am I acc ' s tn world m irhots Population rli l bcn if hirlh rate - rem sin low Chim1's Resources cLn 1- nerRt Chin i s cn rgy challenge' cr ntcr nn infrastrnr tuh ' rnfhcr than rc' ourcc l t manJ will im rcaM ith l'l '1 nomic growth hul c lomcstic rnal supplies urc crmnnous and the 'orld oil 'upply j fon -cast lo lllL'Ct all need including China's for the for secabh future China dmllcngc is to build power plum distribution grid railroads pons and pipelines fast enuup h to sustain cconomk growth U Watl'r Pollution lack of treatment facilities ind licknt irrigation systems and wast ful J racti cs threaten a severto short- - - - -- --- UNCLASSIFIED p 1r1ulation will grow oVt 'r tlit next 40 curs dri' cn by t lernog raphil momentum of high birth ratci' for 1Y7ti and will swhilizc al around 1 5 hillion hy 2050 If hi11h rah inaca c again the mid-1 cntury total will c cL cd I hillinn mid conlirrnc gn iwin fast China believes U S pol icy encourages the independence movement in Taiwan both deliberately andinodvertent1y Il I l As binh rate- haw lropped China s population Im 1-k g un to age The ''batiy hoom generation of 19 56-76 b in its peak d1il l-bcaring yt ar nnw O 'Cars hchind its U S L OUntcrparts omd will he in their P'-'rin l or grcatl' t onmnic proJucti ity o cr the ne1'l tWll dc adcs By 20 1 China 'ill face he same chall ng - the United State oind Japan foe ' today a boomer - - -- - --- - - - - - - FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 71 - - - --- - - - - - - ----------- - ' Asia UNCLASSIFIED China Demographics 2 0 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ 1115 lllF Ag11 Dlalrlllullon 80 71-71 7CH4 156-ff -- 1 5 55-5'1 $0-$1 15 30-34 llS-21 U I - --- ----- 20-24 ' 10-14 i--- M IM - i 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 rc1ir m n1 and lc l c a 'hrinl in_ pool of w11rki11g- 1gc adult _ The arrncd fori c 1 ould foc1 o manpoW 'r hortagc hut n1orc from c1 unm11k c' 'lllJ I it ion 1ha11 'kmugr 1phit s o i111 l ' China's military i o a s1m1ll proportion of its population 1pproad1 UI Some 7' i' i of Chirh ' ' liw in nirnl arc ls toda hut lki iin c pt o1 b annthcr ao IO 40 0 Popalallao - mllAono 15 1 10 migrak 11 th1 citks in the 1wx1 1WtJ dL c uk lksiuc' thl d1 1llcnet of tmihlinl- 1 itics l tsl cnoll h for 100 million nc urhan Llwl 'llcrs the ' hift will mark a l 111lural tra11sfonnutio11 fm China whkh has alwu 's hl cn an 11n rwhl'lmingly rural country If l'hirlil l'l'onom Slh C '1 'tk it ill he in p in due to a lll' ir-l ndl ss supply of IL1hor for 11rhan l'lll1 rpriscs if it fails llw fruslrntion of hundreds 11f million of c o1111mic mi rnllts 1 ould 1 Tcatc a scriou- pulitic 11 and ' l ial risis National Priorities tll China's Lop prioriti1 s will remain eco- nomic dL vdopment and political tahility l_lt The n gime i lil l'ly to hccornc mon Tl'sponsih' to the d sircs md lll'clls 1lf its people hut not - ignilkantly more 1krnocra1k or pn 1- Vcsti orn Military modcrnitution 'ill ontinu o al a 111ca1 urcd p tcc with emphasis on Sl'lectt d missions o Maintaining a l'l'Cdihk nudcar dcll' rrcn1 U Jiang Zemin and his fellow lsod- must manage the tronsillon toward a morket economy while fHS responclinfl to various long-tenn pollNcal and social preuures FUTURETHREAT1999-2020 o Dcvdoping a more acdihko mililal ' threat igainst Tciiwan o Pro1 1 1i11g daims in l Suuth Chim1 s ci again t Southcai t Asian ri 'ali UNCLASSIFIED IV Regional Assessments Asia China i not likely lo huild the capahilit ' to proj 1 t large conventinnal for' l1cvo11d iti immcdiall hordcr or nt oarhv SL' ls Chin11 is likely to l'Ollfinuc hl huild slratcgic missile WMD 'apatiility LI i China's fordgn policy will scci w avoid nnflil-1 a11cl ust iin Lht o trade inw r- mc-111 and acl t In tt hnology cl scntio1I to ct onomit development Within rhi' c l1 rative framc nrk howt ' cr cn rnl points of frktio11 'ill r- sist China hclie ws the t ni1cd Stale' j hem 011 11nlaini11g di 'iding anJ v csccmizing China und pt 'rct oivc Jap HI t o its rrincipal rival in lhc n ion ChinC'sc ka lcrship vil'WS U S Japant o c lkti n sc L'OOJk'rati1 n as in rca ing 1hc lung-term JapancSt threat Taiwnu r main th major - 1umhlin hlock lo a t 'ohcrl 'nt and unitary China and will c 'Olltinu1 to he o1 fm us for 1h1 o lkijin govi rn111cn1 China hclk c' U S polky U Chinese Type 851 M Tank dally in Tihcl and th ' Jl1 rthwcsl lllll the potential threat su h 1110 Cllll llh pmc lo the t ' 1Unl1J's slahility and unity Military Trends The Chines military will tk'nl' lSC in Taiwan ho1h lclihlorntdy otml im1lhcncntly size during till' ncxl two t lccadt '' 111 concncnura cs th inJcpcndcncc mo ' m m in krrituri 1l Jispute' nrny llarc pt ori1 1Jkally - lhou h fkijing prefers to dcfrr 1h1 'Sl' dispute until it i' s1r mg enough Ho impost ' ix at cfol rc olution 1111 it 11wn term 1 urthcrnmr1 - China remains conccnwd over clhnil' sL para1is111 cspc bJ 1 1 4 C - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- SESRET l m funJs for military m 1lk rnin1tio11 a lthuugh it' for'c will h m iin li1rgt in 1 ompnri on u ilh it lll'igh 1N Nnw numl1' ri11g aholll 2 5 million the Pl opk's Libcrntion Arnt CPI A 1 mo - l likt'ly will dt odinc hy JO' i lo lO'k The Chinese clock keeps the some time as clocks in the west but the Chinese perception is of decades passing - not hours or days ------------------ FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 73 - -- ________ _________ _ Asia a majm rcsurg nce of RussiaJ1 Beijing secs lhe air and naval lhrem from lhc ca t as much grt alcr than the _ muncl threat from tht north China s top military priorities will therefore remain its air air defense mi sik and nav 1l frm t s in ordi r w protc 'Cl Chinese daims in the South ll Ab nt JX'Wt r China Sea po c 1 i r dihlc tlm al Lu Taiwan and repd any possible attack from ad a1u r d rivals sudt as the United Statcs nr J ipan China s effort to gather technology from open interaction and from industr ial and governmental espionage will continue China's involvement with selected countries in proliferation will also continue With the growth of U S lnn -rangc strike i ap 1bilitic homdomd dd'cnSl' requires the PL - Navy to e'pand its operating ar 1 further out to --ca The PLA Nav ' s main 'lrcn th is its lknsivc punl h tgainst urfaL c ships C- JXciall ' its anti o hip i rui nfr sill ' ' laondtell from shif s suhmarinl' 1irno1l1 unJ land-ha d platfonns China's ahi lity to pn kl I i na 'al task rorn li1r mi illns other than i oa - 1al Jl 'fi nsc will r main limited China is well m ar it would at 1 ll Chnologkal Ji advanta c again - 1 any tlh an cd oppom nr md would sl'i li lo ovcrrnmc thi - through force multipliers or uncomcntinoal n1un1 rn1ca- urcs md lactic' China hdic 'cs that information 01x ration' ill h nnnc a major itctor in future conllicts md i m li dy rc -can hin nffcnsi in format inn oirfarc i ap ibiliti s China ha - recently ahandoncd all conl il1eration of lewloping an aircraft cmTicr and rdatc l tighter aircraft for iis navy It b possihl thaf this program will be revived some time in the future but equally likely that Beijing will c lccidc to rl'ly 011 anti-i hip cruise missiles and IJcct air defense and forego a l' irrier altogclhl 'r China's lllll lcar slralcg y will L olllinul w cmph t ite a lurvi 'ahk n taliatury capahility to J c1 or use of nul'kar weapons by the l nil d Stah s Rus ia or India Chin o fccb this dctarcnt is at ri - k over thl next deL adc hecause of lJ S rnqMing 1 apahi lit ies mis i k iccuracy and flllll ll- t ial hallistii mis - ik dcfLonse Hdjing is thl'rdorl m1 krnil'in and c 'pa11ding it' missile fori l' 10 re - torc its dt tcm ont valm' Mohilc sulid-ful'I missiles and ot n w l'mllisli missilL' suhnwri1w will irnprow the fori c ahility lo 'ur iVt ' a tirst strike whik more h1unL hcrs on-hoard ix 1wtralitm aids and possihly multipk warheads will impmve irs ahilily tu 1wnctralt mi - - ile defenses Ntllhing im lii alL''- 'him1 will lick thl- mudt l ir cr nu111h1 or or mi' siki llL'l'L'Ssary lo shift fr11m 1 limited rctaliaror lnttl'g y 10 a fir 1-strike w11r 11ghting lrall'gy b 1 1 4 C UNCLASSIFIED ec-tro- - - - - 1 Deniol and deception jo Superior knowledge of local conditions I o Deep strike- ballistic and cruise missiles o I Attacks on staging bases and logistics o Advanced SAMs lo _ information 74 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 Wo ore 1 I _____ _J 5iCAET IV Reg1onol A sse smenls A Sia JAPAN IU I Despite its prolonged economic slump Japan remain among the world larg cst and rkhcM cn nomic and will continue to he for the forest ithk future In the pasl two years Tokyo has rnt ii- dcfcmc budgl't for thl first time since th I 950s and still rank - tietwccn st cnnd and fourth in thl worlc J depending nn thl' t stimatcs of Chinc' 'lc unll Russia ii milirnry pen linJ China may ur pilsS htpan in h tal GNP 'rnrn timc in th ' ncll t two ckl mtes agaiu Llt pt ndint on n 1-y imt rcdsc l s1imatc - of the Chinese t conomy - tiut Japan's ix r c ipita GNP will rc 'main many time - higher amt lap m enjoys a maturl and well dcvdopcd infra Lruclurc that China I ill m cJ three to four d rnd1 s or longer tu huil l b 1 1 4 c d1angc an l ncithc or nor politid ms ha1 c yc ot 1ddrc - c d the lll l'Cs 11ry lin 1m i al n ula- ------------------ tory and stnK'IUr il issue - If Tokyu docs impkm n1 nl cdl 'd ch in i 1hc l'l tlnomy will begin a lmi rcl ovcry If not J 1pan ' l' 1m1 my will remain nc 1r J' l'ru row1h for 'cwr il more ycur Nuncthdc C Cll wi1h a 't o 1Wnl Cl Onomy J ipan ill l L'lllain the 'tlrld scl rn1J-rid1c 1 lal'l C country wilh rnaj11r structural hurcauc1 at Economic Outlook i UJ The rt alcst d1allcngcs l u ing Tokyo are cconomk itnd dcmogrn 'lhi1 fapao ha thl oldest populaiitm of an ' largl' countr and th1 a cmgc ill t' nmtinucs u1 im rl'a C du to low hirth ratt'' over thl' p isl 20 'cars By 2020 259f nl' Japanese will over 6 5 with 1mly A worl ers per rclirc-c rnmparcd to IO per mtirc1 in 1970 n1 A simple measure of the potential for power in Japan and in China can be achteved by looking at the map population has already stopped gmwing aml will decline sharply aft r 20 I0 unlcs birth rates or immigration inn L'iC This would l'l' luire major soda change in Japan The aging of the population will cx m crhalc tht' Self Ddcns Force's renuitmcnt prnhlcms as the pool of military-age men md -Omen contracts hurJlly lJ Economically Japan shnw s nn jgn el of ending 8 years of tagnanl gmwth fost toconomi ts agree that thi ccnmm1y require ---- ----------69UFIBEtfflt'ttl FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 75 ----- -- ---------------- -- - _ _____ __ _ ____ ______ Asia UNCLASSIFIED Japan Demographics 1'95 - - - ---- - 1 1 -- i Ull o - i -r----- I ' Low MfF ao Mipbirtlt- 7 1-111 71 74' - Moclemebirth te GO ' 2020 AgeDD-- MfF 15-81 ' ' rm 80-64 5 0-$4 IO 4Ht 40-44 35- t Jl M 20 o21 n F rr ISO 11111 1'90 2010 2030 tl -2t 15-11 10 14 5-1 CM o 2MO U- cr- m 2 0 z --- Ill 4 Ill CXl'Cll nl Japan's bX1 1 4 c physii al infras1nic1un hi h kvm magl m nl cxpcr1isc um I a hi hly cdu1 u d w1lrklcm c d-s of lc1 h11ology an l growing propensity to contribute military resources to U N peacekeeping missions and its willingness to support mult1-national military efforts indicate an evolving postWWII political - military change NORTH KOREA orth l 1 1rca fall' hingl ' in large measure nn ih ability lo opi with a failing economy anJ with del ision - t 1kcn by it leaders With its indu lr' in a hambks and its a rit ullural - dor incapahtc of m cting minim tl dome -tic quircmcnts North Korea remains dependent upon rnntim1to l donation of food and China willingness to forgive much of Pyongyang annual trnd ' uclici1 Nor1h Ktirea le iJer p r ist in rej X'ting cl onomi1 reform and U Osumi LST opt'llllC' That an lll e- sary lcps 1o ca c thL cri sis - ---- -- - ---- - - - --- - -- 76 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 - - ----- EGRET J l IV cg1onat Assessments Aslo lnstead i' orth Korea has prioritiui l sekct industrial capabilities espt cially a fe of its defense indu tries re1 1xt XI some i11tl mal controls to allow iti hard-prt ssc-d populact more flexibility in m quiring food and other nt --cessities and boosted the military's internal security role including enham ed prorection for the regime 1 Ultimately renev ed economic development is likely to hinge on a relaxation of ten ion and e onomi accommn larion with Seoul U North Korean SANGO-class mini wbtnOl'lne without relaxing lensions with the South If refu ' I to follow that palh as is likely it might be able to muddle through indefinitely m lintaining its missile nuclear and Sf dal operation capabiliti s but losing its capacity for conventional maneuvt r warfare lf it do s reconcile or rcunit ' with lhc South economic reh ibilitalion of 1he No11h will be an enom1ous ta ' k for many years w come and will influence oul's relationshi with China Japom md the United Lading conomil power and allies it upon whom it can depend for military support Nmth Korea clearly helieve it mus maintain a credible military capability at all r osts This provides nol only de errence and if necessary defense but Pyongyang also uses ii indirectly a lc 'er 1g in international negotiations and in rhe policy formularillOS of concerned govemmenti In the shon tenn the North will reiain the ability tu inflict t'normous dcsuuction lO South State Korea Tts ability to conduct large-scule maneuver warfare against the South is Military Trends eroding but it is atcempting to balance thi' erosion Vith improvements in long-range f North Korea remain ho- 1ile it will artillery ballistic missiles weapons of maintain ils large forw ird dl ploycd infanmass de lruction and special o rations try and artillery fon e deploying additional force and associated delivery platforms long-range systems and cmphasi7 ing MtilWere conflict to erupt these elemenl o could kl training Pyongyang ill try to m i in Tt ak heavy damage on the northern part tain lhe l'apabilitko of it large s cial of South Korea operations forces induding plmformo for clandestine insertiHn of fort e intll the Social problems induding widespread South North Korea has thousands of sighunger increased 1 rime and corruption nificant underground facilities ui per d among civilian and military otfo iah have idely throughout the country making preaLcompanied economic foilu Though the cbion dest111c1ion of warllghting capability possibility of leadership change cannot be o Cr ' i lifficult entirely dismissed lhe regime with it enhanced security apparatus appears hrmly North Korean air nd air dekn se cap iin control Thi likelihood that North Korea bilitics arc modest and will remain n in thr will initiate a war to reunify the peninsula future Economic CClm traint will predudt ' is diminishing but the pt s ibility of con- buying new aircraft to replace its obsoles fiict spurted hy internal instability miscal- cent inventory mid pilot training will remain inadequate culation or pmw ation is irn reasing In the lnmzer c rro North Korea is not Pyongyang will main ain large f urfm eiik y to maintain it i apacity for conven- ro-air missile and air defon c artillcrv tional military operations without revef' ing ir economic decline and it cannot re crse that decline without major reform without opening itself to the outside world and 9 EURHT fon es but will have ditlicully in inve ting in nev er more capabk systems The army will cominue to harden air and air defen e facilities lnd may upgra1 k its mm-auw- FUnJRE THREAT 1999 2020 77 IV Peg1onal Assessments A si1 1 mated air ddcn - c onummd and control o y tem b 1 1 4 c -------- ---- - -- - - - - - - - - - - 78 f UTURE THREAT 1999-2020 --------- - ----iE IUiT -4 O IV Regionqt Assessments A550 FUTURE THREAT 1W9-2020 79 - - - - - - - ---- - - - - - - - - - - - IV Reg1orial Assessments Asia b 1 1 4 C Differing threat perceptions complicate the prospects for ecurity cooperation Singapore defense is modernization driv n largely by con U Singapore and Brunei joint operations cern over a potentiaJJy training hmtile Malay ia or spillover eflech from turmoil in lndonl sia Most st 1tcs are wary of Chinei I inti ntions hut the degre of concern vari s with lbailand and Bum1a maintaining pedal mi1it iry tics with Bci iing and Vietnam and lndnne ia perceiving a seriou - lnn Hcnn Chine e t rhreat - -- - - - - - - - - - - - -- IN DONES IA L 1 This vear's tinanci li and poli1ical turffi il h typit al of the domcslk conflict Indonesi i may face over lhe nexl 20 years lndonesia is plagued by chronic communal violence ranging from elhnic separatists on East Timor Sumatra and numemu - smalkr movements tu periodic pogroms ag ainsl ethnic Chinese businesses co rnnfliccs among other political and ethnic groups Beside the domestk implications any major violence in Indonesia ha' the potential 10 spill over into othc -r countries -es ially Malay- ia an Sing aporewhich share Indon - ia' 'I divcrst mix of e1hnil' grnuJY --- lJ b 1 1 4 C U Indonesian students continue to resort to violent protests In light of systemic polHlcal corruption in the govemment and chronic L__ financial turmoil - --------------- - - - ------- 80 FUTURE THllEAT 1999-2020 _ ___________ EiElHFIBEHllitil ----- - - ----- - - - - - - - - - India and The Subcontinent U The CCUrity environment in the sullcontinent is dominated by 1he confrontation between India and P i kistan highlighted in 1998 b ' nuclear tesl in both countries and in t 999 by a flare-up in i onftict Their underlying differenc mainly over the disputed ten-itory of Kashmir are 001 likely to be resolved soon IUJ The region wilJ see modest economic expansion Wer the next decade limited by the time required to build infrastructure and the need for social improvements India is likely 10 achieve significantly higher growth rates than any of its South Asian neighboni Economic structures are le s stable in the smaller countries such a Bangladel h and Sri Lanka and will remain vulnerable to market fon-e ' and abem tnt weather conditions ' 1 1Jo 1 I Slan close behind In addition Paki tan will rernain a key drug transit node Ahhough the drug trade could suibilize both counrries it i al o a significant source of national income especially in Afghanbtan and high lcvl ls of government corruption also fo ter continued drug production and tratlicking 11 1 4 el Further nuclear testing by both countries is likely POLITICAL OUTLOOK ll Political violence and temlri im will remain endemic to 1he region Islamic militants will continue trnining in AfghaniMan o will remain a lit rious regional threat with many production and 1rat1kking areas outside government control Afghanistan will remain the econd largest producer of opium in the world with Palifl Dmgs 'I' o- '' 1 o o o o U lttdlan Ro put ri les FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 81 - - - - - - - - - ------ --- - ------ Ind a Demographics 1-o -- 2 0 1-- ---- i ' v - 7'-7t 5Wt llH4 M 24 24 v 1110 o 1 8 '--- t - - - llO 7J 71 MIF v 111-11 10-1o w 19 11 1990 2010 2030 l M 211 2050 411 _ _ _ ui - - - and Pald tan while Pakis1an's oppressed Shia community wilt c on1inue to re eive Iranian funding and o uppon Iranian goals A spectrum of well-established and loosely organi1 ed cx trcmisl groups will benefit from this uppor1 UNCLASSIFIED ti I IQ 40 id 0 bl 1 1 4 e Indio 1 2blllion Pakistan 155 mllNon 24Sml llon Afghanlstoo 25m11Non 41 mlHion 2020 o U Politic aJly and ocia1ly South A - ia in 2020 will not be rndically different from today M t govcmm nts will remain sock -democratic despite periods of ultra-national isl and ethnic teni ions Post-conflkt Afghanistan most likely will reven to its pre-connicl pauern of a weak central government with mo t of 1he ountry controlled by tribal and ethnic leader SECURITY OUTLOOK - CU The enti South Asian region remains susceplihle to high populati n growth low literacy ra1e1 inefficient government- tarian violence skewed land ownership natural disa tc and inadequate physical infra tructure Even if India mocler ltes il high birth rate it will ove ke China a'i the most populous count -y in lhe world by about 2030 If not its population by 2050 will be nearly two billion and climbing AIDS and tubcrc ul lSis witl be major problems in the rl gion particularly India in Pakistan and Bangladel h the prevalence of HIV AlDS may he t onstrained by religious and cultural nom1s -------- --------82 eo -- m POPULATION 1999 990milllon 40 IV Regional Asses menls Indio and The Subconffnenl b i 1 4 C ' t v ' U After two wars and numerous bOrdet clashes Pakistani ffOOPS sland ready even in the face of o quolitaffve disactvon- toge to India's armed forces _ - -------- EGRET FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 83 IV Regional Assessments Middle Ecnt -Norlh Africa Middle East - North Africa tinu d hold on powc r in Iraq have adrcrscly nffcc1cd U S influence Thi pcrc ption has lemme generational and will 1 ontinoe h1 W igh on judgment for at l ast th o nc-xt decade o spcl'itk radical vent 'ith the potcntiill to alter 1he strntcgil' landsrape drastkallv -- alonl the lines an Egyptian alignment with 1h U S I 97th l or a mas'ivc lJ S military intcn cntion 1990-91 l is likely How H r the cham e arc bl'ltcr 1han ever thal a m j or evenl will oc ' ur Tlic principal forces driving t faldl for cxampk lhc foll of the hlamic r ' ime East - Nonh Afril ' 1 tMEN Jc clop- in lnm or the replacement of 1 ccular ments through 2020 will be rapid l lpula- regime hy an blamic repulilk in another tion gwwlh and 11rb 111i1 1 tion outstripping regional swtc GO crnmcm rcsis1 111cc tu the c onomk rC l Urccs of many tatc and refom1 hc ' IU ot' the threat it po cs Ill fueling internal and rcgi mal instability ntrenchl-0 intcr sts will Ile high SlH c s - Many rcgiomil slitlCs Ju not appear cogni- ful reform - highl llnlikdy regionzant of the riou socin-Cl' llnomk hal- widc --- ould carry its own perils for th lcngcs po d oy these tn nds Others will be politil al o lalus quo At 1hc same lime ome um 1bk tn meet publk cxpccwtiom1 Probslah will cxpericn c vrent hin lca llorship lems will ix r i t with degrading national sul 'cc sions i rcatin hnth danger and infrastructure and puhlic expcclittion or oppununi1y for impmvemcnL During 1his medical care lw ation 111d employment period we t an cxpe1 1 shifts in policy away from and tl1ward the linilcli Stales The C Th ' l'nitcd Slntcs will ht' the majl1r most poli1ically 'Olutik c onomic chalcxtrn-rcgional l' ll tor innuencing Middk lenge l'acin g the region through 2020 and East devdoprncnt However lack llf 'bcvond will ht' job i rcntion Compcti1i11n in pmgrcss in the rvli ldk Ea l peace pml'l 'S th J 1bor market will cre 1tc lliscomentetJ during the Netanyahu go ernmenfs rule in population - ' 'UScl ptihlc to cxploilalion hy hracl Arab puhlic perception of ll S hia 1 organizations opposed to the 11oli1i cil and toward Israel and Saddam Hus ein con- economic status quo U U Palestinian profe1toro have and wiH rfHTlO n a persistent reminder of the region 's Instability lJ Regional hi torical 'onsl 1nl'i o uch i xenophobia stollC riH1lrics and etlmiL tribal and - ectarian animosilil' will icfy pcnnan nl l hange imd of1cn will he cxaccrbil Cd bv the temoion bctw n population and resources The demand for water already carce in th region will increase dramatically as the population grow - By 2020 the region will fa e a significant yomh bulge Between 25% and 35% of the population y'ill he under the age of 15 The 1reo s on national infr i iructun s will be further compounded by the fact that 60'if to 80'7r of the populution will re idc in urban areas - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ' - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 EGRET 84 IV Regional Assessment - -- - - - - - -- Middle East - North Afr1co UNCLASSIFIED Middle East-North Africa Demographics I --- 'lt111- i' -1' 0 2 J r I U F Tt o r - - OA 2030 Age '' oo i' ' -- --- 1916 0 1 --- ----- - -- --- - - to llO-M Ml 4 o49 35-39 -34 211 2044 1f-1t 111-1o H t I ' '7- 1 - - - Ooo4 25 20 15 105 1'70 1ti0 lll1G 2Q 1G s 0 s 10 15 2Q ts 25 Z01$10 5 0 S 101520 ZS 20 0 n The ri of radkal poli1it i1 cu h lam will remain a halkn L' for the fururl' It i lhc only force on thl huriJ 011 cttpahlc of 1 h 1nntoling dist onlcnt and rloar inro 1ltcmp1- lo ch mgc the p1 1li1ical o talu '-luo in pttrtit ular stal - lnd c l thl' manipulation of hlmn 10 promolc various a cnJa i the most signilicunt threat b 1 1 4 C - - - - - - ----- ----- EEURRH ---- ------ FUTURETHREAT1999-2020 ------------- - - - - - - - 85 ------------- - ----- - Middi Eos - NQl1h Africo Altemative Futures Potential Proven Global Oil Reserves 2020 A mor r ipid incr a'c in the a quisition 1lf adva i11 l l weapon and WMD l ould crc ttc t more volatile cuvironm m MENA ' ' lctlcs will ohtain Ill' sy '-k'ms wi1h11ut fully un lcrstm1ding their capahilitk or lh1 implications lf their use f fr 1 akul uim1 ill h1 1 omc l'H kr making ho tilitics hard r to prc lict Non--OPEC onoi r OPE Saudi Am b 1i 1 4 C UNCLASSIFIED _l 1l Th11 ugh thl ' llN r 1uart r l'l the n w l' 111ury im r asing r kmamJ lur nil am I 1s - p u1ic ularl from j 1 -will l'On1im1o to highlight thl o trar1 ogil impnrtancto tlf the Pi 'r - ian Ar 1hi 1n Gulf E ll hy 020 rh 1- fion wi 11 hold 60'4 10 fl '-' ' of the pnwc n Johal rnl n nc The pto1 cntag I of oil c purb from th Gulf dc tincd for th U S ill ri main lido ICJ' i Lurop will ill'1 ' ount for ah'ilut l' md lhl' Filr East including fapa11 for l l'r 60 Depletion of European rcscnc - in the Nonh s t may c1 mtrihult' lo a highl 'r Europ1 an demand for faldk Fao t l rud Europe hare 1 1f imporh fr llll the region will ri and foll within 1hto -Wth pt n ntile for the forc e- al lk future with rrallf e an I lt tl acrnuntin for the inajoril '- Thtiugh the A ian c1 Wmic crisis ha d ampcll ' l the rah nf in1 rt d'it' in cun cnt Jemand 1he long-11 rm kman l frnm siu l iJI continm upward as f u1th r imJu-strialiLati n ta c '- plm e 86 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 U Israeli Arrow II A TBM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------- - - Midclle East - Norlfl Africo Sew ml vi ENA slates t ould further their IS l Iran s politkal devclopmcm coming more benign mc C slate might bl c ome more rcspon i e ro intcmatitmal nom1s of com lm t Likewise they could view th ir str itcgic mi il try asscls as proYii 1ing stahiliry for th ir positi ln in he region crnnomi ' ind IRAN Political Outlook lr n 's c 'ollon ic diffkt ltic_s will i 1l u nee its domesnt and lorc 1gn pohc1c thniugh most of the next twn Lkcudcs c- onolll ' ha potential but co o- nomic gniwth during he rc or the decade i oo likely In remain sluggish and ould uffcr signilicanl probkm Oil prices likely will r rm1in Wl 'ilk 1hrough 21 105 anti Iran will h tVl' difficulties maintaining rhc cumont kwl of oil cxporrs Iranian dnmcslk - on sump1ion nf oil co111inuc to increase further nunplicming Thl ccunomk pil'turc Nacurnl gas rt' oon t'' ill be funhcr exploited L'H ntu 11ly ka li Ill to sign ilic anl amllullls of n uurnl gas x pons hy 2010 Iran i worling hare to di 'cr oait'y i1s Cl 'Onomy dl'wlop its industri ll base ilnd im rcasc non-llil l 'X JX ns Tehr m will Ix rnudera1dy 'uccl' ful in lhl sc l'IUkilV r o parlil ularl in tht heavy indu- trial ' Cl'lors of mining ml'tals and pctro hemi ils This houlJ rl suh in a mol kratl' innca 1 in nonoil c pons and im1 row1m n1 in the i lcfcn c industrial cl hir lntcrn 1l d mograf hic-rcsnun c tcn ion will drive attempts at internal reform Iran will C nlw in10 a cnnscn us '11vcrmncnt with more po 'l'r-sharing 11nong dcrio technocrat and secularists Tt'l1ran will redu c mphasis on cxponing thc rc Olutifltl hut ratfa il Muslims v ill proh 1hl rnnlinuc i ularcd m f _ Of h rrorislll SOil ' Of Whidl Will Defense Resources I lracl ' lblc lo Iran li ohran will continul ' to 'eek tn undcrminto rl gioual hdil'I in U S 1 kdining oil n 'em1c will f11rcl ' Iran tu sccuritv a uram l' oa and suh crt other prioritit c dcfrnsl ' spending and tklay or rt gion I wtcs 1ha1 Tl'lllain 1 ro-Wl ' tcm ancl ' 11 11 oast som ' pnx uri mcm and 1 011Iran will also s catlily incrcctsl ' its influernx ''rul tion pn jccts However Iran will on- in the Middle East and Ccntml A i owr tinuc to assign priority 111 rc 11Urces the n ' i l dccmk i i lllt ' Uh of projel'lin tlcdit'atc d 111 its mi'''''-' and WMD pmitself as a regional power grams Temporary ddays in lhc'c pw Hlll'i arc po- sil'ik if 1lw oil n o cnuc dcdinc fo ts ticyoml OO 'i lr m rnn surviw tt tnporal rc lul'lion in rcs1lur c allocated to rnnventiunal force am I supll'll1 cntitil'o without having a Jong-tcnn impal I on for c strut ture Iran j likdy to protect pi 'rsonnd hut would C 1 pe 'rsonnd l hl- around lhc cd -' c - S dal unih uch a 1h Que ls fon l l 'ould avoi l cut- c1uircly Military Outlook lran is expected to prc'il'nl a continuing rcgmnal threat unfe major politkal Ol curs lt will n main uspkil US of lmqi long-tcm1 o jc li cs and j i1Krl 'asingly cnncanl u with its easll rn horder chan where lht' cxtrl me onhodoxy of th1 Sunni U President Khotomf Tttliban d1a lkongc s the Sh ii m of Iran ' FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 87 Middle East - Nortrt Africa Iran seeks to establish po litica milltary hegemony over the Gulf Region Islamic Republic Iran ii developing new military capabilities lo deter a posl-suoclions lmq and a hostile hhunic Afghani tan Enhanl'ements to it ' conventional fon cs will be gradual with a focu on homeland defense However underlying difficulties with l'Ombat e1h elivcness and overall readiness will remain in place for at least the next ven 11 years me Islamic Revolutionary Guard Command IRGC will continue tll compete with the Islamk Republic of Iran Ground force IRlGf for re mrces ns well as intcrmil n sponsi- U Iranian female troops b 1 1 4 c bilities adding another challenge to overall Jranian capabilities ------------------ U Iranian solt H ond Cobra helicopter ' urcefulneo with aging p otforml -- -- -----88 ----- - --FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 - _ 'iGOAEif HQFQRtt IV R0 J1ono Asses sments Middle ECdt - Noi111 Ahico bX1 1 4 c U lton will continue lo place importance on imploved bOHlstic m slile capoblllties In part achieve flralegic sfrlke copabllitfes uNlul within the region TM Shohcb-3 picfurtild above wiH incf90H Iran's miffile capability to 1300km as early OS 2000 ' Iran is slowly but steadily building an offensive capability for in excess of its mere defensive needs ---- -- -- -- ---- - - ESRET H8F8RH FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 _ _ - -- --89 IV Reg1or ol Assessmen s Middle East - No h Africa b 1 1 4 C in the Arah world and will have achkvcd this to a i -nitkant degree by 2020 lralJi iunbitions will be checked by its unc asy ' - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ' relationship with its Persian neighbor Once sanctions are lifted historical animositks lrJn miliLary capabilities by 2020 wi11 will haw a 4 hanc to flourish Iran's continbe commensurate with those of a formidi1blc ued 1 upport for Shiilc rehels in lra1 f regional power It will rely on its ability to southern marshes will continue to exac erpnwide an indeptondcnt and substantial hute tensions bet vcen the two regional dcfeus tlf it' national interests domestically powers and wiLhin the region Chief amlmg the I will be ir-- ability to project power in the Gulf and the cstahfo hment of an adequate The Kurdish situation in northern Iraq will remain a contcn1ious i sue through the WMD dettmence to st m intervention next two decades The fact th it Ktmh inhabit areas or Iraq Iran Turkey Syria IRAQ and the former Soviet Union 'Aiill add hl rhe Political Outlook dynamic geopolitical mix The Kurd themsel 'CS also utkr from interm1l t'euds and rivalries Irnq's Lwo major Kurdish partie the Kurdish Democratic Party KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdi -tan PUKl will not he able to overcome 1hdr difference in the fort see ble future despite the advantages of working together n addition lo the Kurdish is ue cnntrol of the water sources for the Tigris and Euphrate could have the potential to facili- U Deputy Prime Minister Aziz olitical mmsition in lrJq is key to the future of the Arab state A post-Saddam ll adcrship is likely to be les confrontational tnd will prob oLbly arise from the existing Ba' ath Party Rt'conslruction of Iraq's national economic infrastructure will also be critical over the next decade As with Iran demographic and re nun c problems increasingly will create tension and will pro idl' a hurdle for any sig nilic ml economic reform External Imq will pu h for im rea - ed kader hip --- - 90 ___ -- - UNCLASSIFIED Iraq Total Urban and Rural Population Medium Variant 35 1 Percent Urt11n __________ - -FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 82 8 Almost 25 to of lhi urban population will live in Baghdad 1 1 Rc i1onol Assessments Mit kl41 Eosl - Nodh Africa bi 1 See 1 4 c Sec 1 4 di tale future ronlfa t with Turkey Demand for water will incrca e in Iraq 1 ities and lO ns over the next two decades as more than 80 -t c1f Iraqis ire cxpccccd to mak their homes in urban cenlers by 020 Any inhibiting uction by the Turks on water ftow into Iraq will further stress civil infr L' lTUl tures as well as the Iraqi leadership Military Outlook Iraq will remain capable of incur ions against its Gulf Coo rntion Council GCCi neighbon Baghc fad retains the -Oal of dominuting Kuv a it hl1wever it inability to hold against a detem1incd Western l'Uun1eratr ack will limit ics options Rela ed or suspended UN sam tions will allow the Jraqis to modcmize their an d forL es and wiU enhance lr iq's ability to pursue thi objecti ' lrm s l'onventional priorities will be impm 'ed missile air defense and ground fon e If sanctionl arc lilkd in the next IO years Jraq will focu on ac4uiring nt lt capabilitk s - dtkally intenJcd to provide an a ymmetric mean tn counter U S domi nancc and deter U S invohement in the region U Iraqi fOldter manning air cklfeme gun 1 SAUDI ARABIA Political- Military Outlook b 1 1 4 cj 1 4 d Over the ne t 5 to I0 year- the Kingdom 1f Saudi Ar ibia wil1 l 'X X'ricn1 e rnpid Uc ssion of change hut ll S Saudi relations will remain iahlc The Saudi regime will incrca iingly lt el the threat of prokmged c1 onomic cr n trlint' and internal demc1grJ phicrc ourt I ' tensitin 'v'eakened government Jinunl el and dedining living o tandards will po 'e a 1 hallcnge to the Saudi o mment Under op lli iition pre ure the regime will lik dy 1ry to disrnnl ' e it lf from the l'nited Slate- on a 'ariety of policy ind militmy i ucs HO Vl 'r re neWi 'd threats from lrt q - - - - - - --- - - - - - - - - - FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 91 IV Regional Assessments Middle East - North Africa ib 1 1 4 iC 1 4 d and lrnn rnumerbalani e lhh drcums1ance The Saudi leadership will alsll try 10 restrain the growth of government s nding whik implementing fiscal rcfom1s but this will he an uphill effon Missile Programs b 1 1 4 C 1 4 d STRATEGIC Islam is the only force on the horizon capable of channeling discontent and fear into attempts to change the political status quoin particular b 1 1 4 C IMPLICATIONS states U I The balance of fll lWCr between GCC siate - and Iran and lra4 - lTudal tll the llnited Slat es - will r main prnf 1undly unfavorable to 1hc GCC statl - without ex 1ernHI inl1uen1 e 1 s The Arab-Israeli ri - Llry will persi l in 1 -----------------' some fom1 lhroughout this period remaining highly o 1gnilic u1L to the intl rcsts of the UniLed Slate' Bolh lrnn aml rraq will rnntinue h pnse an enduring unconventional t at 10 U S interests and a conventional threat to our regional allies t ' - U I Thi im1x rtance of MENA l ncrgy re ources to lhe economie of U S Asian and European alli and pa i1nt rs will guar lntee the region' slrategic importan e to the United Stales for at lea 1 the fir t pan of thl m ow century UJ Kuwoitt preparations lot the possibility of chem blo attack ____________ ---- -------92 FUTURETHREAT1999-2020 ------- ____ - - - - - - SEeRET t40F9RH -- - --- -- - - - - - - - - - - --- Middltl Easl - North Africa 9EeROPN8F8RH PolllbM Status of MENA WMD ProQrams In 2020 Country b 1 1 4 Iran yes modernizing yes active yes active yes octlve IR ICBM Iraq yes modernizing yes active yes active yes IR ICBM development no possible acquisition no po55ible desire no possible development yes active MRBM no possible development yes posslbJe SRBM no possible development yes possible SRBM b 1 1 4 c Saudi Arabia b 1 1 4 C UAE no none Yemen no none no none 1 lls is an illustrative scenario based on an extension of current ond projected MENA NBC m copabilitfes and intentions described in this primer b 11 1 4 e U HcmtOJ mNitmtl IOICh U S tJog in Lebanon 8E8REfJN8F81H FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 93 IV Reg onol Assessmenis Sub-Saharan Africa l l E r it il ht the next tWll dccad os SuhSah i ran Afnl oo will remain u rl'g ion of extreme turmoil and sm i ial uphc wal prinmrily dm to pcr is11 nr rc ' oun c -011 tr tims ri in population and incrl'n - inl C pl l Latinns Contributin1 lo t frica 's Sl'l ll rity prolilem will be ixoor oh rnano c l'lh nic rivalril'i l conrnnic hnrtfall - and cm in1nmi 111al di -asti ors Dc - pilc thc - i even prnbll'm morl' dcmnn itk govcmmcnh trl likel Lo t'llll'rgl' The fragility of thCS ' l tll l'a1111111 he ovcr lall'U Many dl tutiili1i 11 1 1nrs and thl' lad of atle'tllalc rl ouH i s cnul l cau Lhcm 10 rnpidly had tidc and l' 'l 'll colh1ps In tmn lhc fulllrl' overall si1ua1ion in Suh-Saharan Afri1 1 will prohatily ON n l'll forl' iL inqmin - Challenges A# 1 11 c ' t' 1J l hl l n ilcst l halkn l for tht future b o i q The tunnoil internattona ly and on this continent is now on our doorstep Former South African Deputy Minister for Defense onnie Kasrlls lhc Jll'l 'd for lhl' ruk of la and nospc1 1 for human ri -hh PO Cn ' l' 'l ac1 rtia1 tl in - ornc cmmrri1 s hy r 1pid p11pul 1tirn1 growth 11 oading to ccono111k discontent arnJ contributing lo cthnil ten illll and ri alry in tum will lead In mscning humanil 1ri u1 conditions acrus lh1 ' llllli111 11t ln addition lo thc l' lun slanding problems al le t I sc 'l'n Llcn lnpmcnts o1r1 l mtrihu1in tu lhl' ch 1lkng ' Suh-Soth aran Afrk m 'ta11 focc thl communieation rcvoluli1111 poli kal reform 1r 111sm1tional i suc - 11ri a1i1ed para-mililm ' scrvin s cmc11 in power hhl s population rowth and di coN n unp11 'cedented explosion in com munications technolOjlJ is H oll underway as shown b the pn lif 1 ation of cell phont s fa sel 'iceN the Jnlernel ltll' ision salcllitt' prn ided sen- ices and so rorlh A a rt ull J Cllple across lhc 'Olllincnl 110 1 h n c n - -idy ac ss tll inf1 1rma1irn1 never prC'Yiou -ly imaginl'd Vith thh ll 'W accc - ma Afric 1m h avc imprmcd 1hd r undcr l mding of the world Al the same UJ RevolutionOry United Front sold et in Sie o Leone 94 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 time they h i e hccomc painfully aware of COP4Fl9E l1Al I J Pegror ol Assossrnlonts b Sanoron A frico the mu h higher Jiving standards iround the 'Orltl and rtoali te hnw poor they arc by comrarison As a conSequence lheir politk1d and economic cxpel 'tations will continue to rise Thl'Y will demand more from their lc ukrs Current and future guerrilla lighter will be motivaLed morc f y spoils than ideology Although indigenous semimenl for nu m open governm nl and human rights i genuine and evcral i taks in SuhSaharan Africa ni'i douht will pursul politi al plurali -m true polilki1I reform will h mixed Soml' state will be sm 't t' sful l knio H11l wana Uhana and probably South Afri1 a -whik other countrie - will fm e failure or fr ignientauun and threaten regional stnbilily Ccntr ll amt E i l Africa - particularly th Great Lakci region - will prc ent the grcatc - t challen es to regional 'ability Crime ternirism ille al narcotics i rncking and weapons proliferation wiU continue to increase Blaek and grny arms markds will Rouri' h and will tend to m crshacJow - tole 1ttempts at control Gov crnmtonl corn1p1ion is alno 1dy widespread and linkage bc1wcl 'n criminal dcrmonls and politk ian will l ontiouc to be stron g in t ountric- such a Nigeria and South Afrka Beside Sudan additional Suh-Saharan rnulllrie could pro 'idc ak-havcn to tl 'r rotists for linom ial win ur iJeologkal unity lcspi1i being suhjl f to kmg--tcrm in11 matio11 1l politic al and crnnomii isol 1 lion Militanl lslm11 will facilitate terrorist o1ctivi1y m l rl 't ionul in tability me i oun1ric in and around lhl' Horn of Africa will t'tto the primary source und cargt I of chi Islamic extremism 1s will SC 'l'ral lalcs in We-st Afrka Atrican states are disco ' erin that ri racturs selling militar services l'an be force multipliers ConlrilL'lor proviik SCL mingly cheaper and lJuicker hur more contmwr ial solutiorl' since the praclkc cnrrics the stigma or hiring mercenaries ' - b ' - o 4 i - '- o ' - f Executive Oulcotmn EO mercenary forces provjde controversial soturlons to internal instability from the outside to deal with intcnMI problem - African militaric - will continue to display disparate com1Jl tcncc hut tty 020 more forces will tend to he profc sional smaller wi1h potentially improved apabilitics Other African force ill consLitutc nothing niort than a rabllk of individuals who started om chdr military career a chilu soldier and gn w up in tht L'ham of the po - t-Cokl W tr period Fm them hasic survival instincb will remain puranu1unt This kind of force will mo t cvicl nl in thl S ' countries where the 1x ial infra rruc1ure has hccn disrupt d for lung ticrind s of time i in Central and Wt''t Africa At least three regional grouping - arl' emerging as powtr blues in Africa The South Afril'a De 'clopment Community 1SAD Economic Community of West African Stale' ECO WAS and fntcr-Govi rnmcntal Authority on Development t GAD have tried to provide internal olutions for Sub-Sahar m Afrku The SAOC and ECOWAS are focused on the sci urity cm ir inmcnt without the ofhcial blci sin nfth UN' A fe w countries such a Scnc al and Nigeria have made l onccrtctl efforts w facilitate regional cootlict resolution whilt - - ----- ----- -- - ------ -- --------- -- ----- --- -- ------- ------------- -- - -- C0HfJBEH'flAL FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 95 Suo-Sorit110n A Inca UNClASSIFIED I __ I - --- H- ' u - t - y 1 ' o oo 0-74 11681 8 414 Siii iU6f WM 3NI 313' 25-21 ' 1 '19 10 1'1 I -f --t H 04 0 1 Mlf 2 1 _ _ _ -- -- --- - - 211 60 40 100 80 60 40 zc 0 ' - m m others such a Angola Zimbabwe and Rwanda have Cl'lllrih ut d to the mdce t y pro 'iding forl cs to ongoing conflit'ls These groups cou ld evolve imo formal puwer blocs pilling region against region iO 0 9 11 alone This trend will prnbahly ix rsist for at lt asl I 0 years Alternative Futures A new ' Cllst ' if lrdcr r sponsibili1y and democra1 y appear 111 he emerging in certain countries and poh nlial hi hcr lev- I U By 2020 approximately I billion people will live in Africa Nearly 50% of els of education - hrought about in pa11 hy the population will live in urban or built-up the communi1 ations r vnlution - could area - cum entratetl in the wc tcm and Cl n- provide Snb-Sah mm Afrka with 1 more tral part of the contincnl The m jority of s1ahlc future the population will he under the gto of 25 and nearly 40' - will he undtor 15 Already Nations sui h Js South Africa these rcgiom rdain the large number - of Botswanil llld Scn gal coul l t clip their migrant- and rcfu ecs a ituati'' cxpcclell regional neigh lr i omin _ influcn1iaJ to continue beyond 2020 rl gi onully and globally to ptir Ul' their intcre ls and hi more adl quatdy partkipatc U Disea- e will continue to overwhelm in the world economy Both Kenya and the health rrumagement capahilities of Ghana continue to hold the ine ngo inst th' many African o ernments The lm k of inslahility rippling though thdr respective health care inl'rastrucllll e will retard cc -- regions Ghana in particular ha ' buo kell the nomic productivity in some n gions In trend and ha a growing middle ch - a sorn 'oumric ha ic health care will nnt cohesive factor for a mort' t lahlc c nvironimprove Uhstantially i'or SOlllC time ment 1f AfriL an countries t ontinuc to Afrka HIV infrclion rate and deaths increase effort w intcrwne in imcrmll c mfrum AIDS are among the highest in the ll icts regional self-confidlonce niuld lead to world A much as 20 to 25 1k of some pop- a greatl r sen of order This wi II Lake hmh ulations could he lost in outhern Africa timt un l dyn ounic leadcr hip -- - - 96 -- - - - -- - - - - -- - - -- -- ---- ------ ---- --- FUTUIH THREAT 1999-2020 C QtmQDJ'flAL l - - ---- --- --- --- NIGERIA U Nigeria has one of the greatesl potentials in Africa for both economic success and socio-political disaster The economy's oil seclor potential has not yet heen fully realized nor ha e lhe citizen received any large-scale benefit from this primary resoun e A new civilian government can provide movement in the right direction however corruption is systemic in both the public and pri ite sectors This will take years to cowrcome and will requit e political reform at all echelons ell Despite the ele tion of President Oha Sanjo the fi t ivilian elected in l 5 yeaN the Nigerian milital ' will ontinue to exen influence on the government pos ibly hampering cm ms at reform The milirary regards it lf as the guarantor of Nigeria's integrity and stability a- a nation and ha not hesitated to as ume poUtical power during time of national crisis However its leaders do realiz the institution has suffered by interceding in govemmcnr affairs The military ha supported the tra 1 1sition to civilian rule under Abubakar's personal cc umnilment Yet ltiere b a laq e element of military institutional self-interest in this outlook The military still docs 001 fully trust civilian politicians to nm the country and some officers undoubtedly will work behind lhe enes to exerci e i ome influence on the political parties and the candidate' they select However the military realize$ th at in order to regnin access to Westem support they must t eus on dcmocr 1 1ic progress and military professionalism vice promoting a i pecific political agenda Long deployment in Liberia and Sie1Ta Leone have under ored th need in particular for logii tics training communications equipment 1ran pof'1 aircraft and ba ic infantry equipment C0HFl8Efff1Al U Nlgetla wlll 1emain open lo peocelcfHIPfng enlorcem rt operallom to undtHSCOfe ifs role as a regional pow6r whether um r clVIJlan or mll#oty tule By 1020 the Nigerian military will be leaner and more Jn bile at least in its structure and will remain a key political focus The quality of Nigeria's arm d for'--e ' facilities and equipment and it military readines remain diftkult to asses As mil itary and civili m governments altemate control O 'er Nigerian politics the condition of the military changes oomcfimes faring berter under civilian than military regimes Thus if civilian nlle take 1 cxlt in Nigeria and endures to 2020 the Nigerian military could significantly improve in professionalism and 1 apability ff the historit al paUc m of alternating civilian and military regimeiconrinue' howeooer the Nigerian am1ed - - -- - - - UNCLASSIFIED tapot TIWld 1960- ZOJS i ----------tuati---- _------- lOTO FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 l015 97 - - - -- ----- ---- ______ Sub Sotia ron Alnco forces are likely to mark tin an l look much as they do today Over the next two decade Nigeria will Nigeria accounts on average for 7-8%ofUS oil imports i ontinue to play an important role in West Africa and perhaps the entire continent Nigena s forces wm remain the Ct mcrstone for ECOMOG CECOWAS Cease-Fire Monitoring Group which appears lo be evolving into a permanent feature of West African curit ' SOUTH AFRICA For the near tcnu the country's transition to a multirncial democnu y probably will remain on track The black majority wiU continue to dominate domestic politics while the white minorjty will retain its hold over key sectors of Lhe economy The mling African National Congrl S ' fresh from it ' electoral victory in 1999 will continue to dominate the poli1i1 at - rag e for the DC l five years under Pr sident Thabo Mhcki Howe'w er the next elections scheduled for 2004 will set the Lage for South Africa s political development in the 21st century Once again the ANC' probably will win at the polls but it'- adherent are likely to split into moderate and radical wings because lf their differences OJPYer economic and social is - u s Popular pressures to efft Ctively address these issue will imensify but Prctmia will be hard-pres ed to respond ade quately A resurgcnc lf polith al violence U G6 SP Howtlzfll' cannot be rukd out particularly if radical ANC leaders capitali7 c on governmem shortl omings rival lnkatha Freedom Pany mem rs remain at odds with the ANC and whites perceive that they will become economically disenfraochi d to placate black populist demand ' 10e polential abo exists un r this resurgence for acceler ued white flight and attempts by the white community to parnlyze the oconomy The South African National Defonsc Force SANDF will con1inue its trnnsformution well into the next century By 2020 the SANDF will he a mailer bhK k kd and -staffed t rce with a greatly reduced role for whites who currently dominate large elements of the Air Force and Navy olli r corps Constant political pre surc on Pretoria to deliver on social welfare programs will force the SANDF to cope with uu - terc budgets for ' Verni years Smne defense modernization dfons will be cunaile l or ten unfulfilled forcing the mlli1ary 10 rdy on quipment Lhat has already exl'eedcd its lifespan such as the Cheetah fighter aircnifl and Olifant main battle lank The Navy pmbably will rL'i 'eive muchneclled corvette and the Air Force coold pick up n Integrated SANDF win sllH hove to cope with social pl'95Swes and llmlted tlnanclng ---- ------ ------ - - 98 Orne - --- -- - -- --- FllTURE THREAT 1999-2020 light fighter trainer aircraft but mosl other needs wm remain outstanding ban ing generous 'offo cf arrangement with foreign defense equipment manufacturers Although 1he SANDF will --- ---- - - - -- --Sub Saharan AhJco have to make do with le I it will find it clr undet growing pres- ure to become more acti 'c in regiom1l peacekeeping operations Its involvement in external military ventures however will tenuous at fim At the same time i in 'olvement in internal urity matter i is ex pe tcd to increase et pecially if the crime f lle ontinues to spiral upward The SANDF is likely to be called on fr quently to uppmt po1ic activities aimed at curbing political violence 111cgaJ mlss-llordcr at 1ivity and org mized crime Th Sudanese People'o UberotiOn Anny SPLAJ has been engogf d In 0 con#ict STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS In 2020 Sub-Saharan Africa could pnl-- ten yecus with the Alllng National lslamlc Ft0nl NJF lft Jlme that slorted 01 a soutMm rebelr10n and now Includes 1upport from Ethiopia Uganda and Eritrea The sllualion promises to con#inue to be a catalyst tor ongoing and futuo humanltorian d la$ S vicle basic industrial output - both in resources and light manufacturing- for the developed world panicularly Europe where the indigenous workforce will be shrinking Petroleum reserve- in West Africa will continue to provide Europe with to the African continent for limited peace a viable energy suppkment and periodic open1tion o France can be exrx -x1 d t l play ahemative to Middle Ea ' t reserves Ong l- a diminished role anti pun ue il i own ing inMnbility and the continuing mo e- agenda Although the threal of a major conmcnts of large numbc oN of displuce l fiicr with these deploy d fon e will be person and refugees will str ss this Jll 'lten- minimal the level of insecurity and dismal tial ecom mic relation- hip Thu the economic condilions wifl put them at risk demand for intematjonal humanilarian Relalions between Sub-Saharan Afri an a t istancc lo avoid famine Jll Slilence ountrics and the United States will be gengenocide and overall ill lahility could erally friendly and P '-ilive a African carry even greater importance The U S countries i tek incrca d lJ S trade and LTN and po sibly NATO forces will deploy economic inve lmcnt Ongoing instability and the continuing movements of large numbers of displaced persons and refugees will stress the potential economic relationship with Europe ---- - -- --- ------- - --- FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 1 1 Rcg orio Asses 111c vs Latin America Latin America the potential for democratic reversals Some countries may retain the trappings of democracy but fall back to de facto authorirarian rule thereby creating ubtlc challenges for United Stales S T The pace of l'Ontinued democratk progress in Latin Ameri a hinges in part on the outcome of the current crend evide nccd in some countriel' of eroding popular confidence in the ability of tmditiomd political forces to solve the problems of crime corruption and social and economic inequality Pent and Venezuela are the best current examples of the abandonment of traditional political parlk-s for o new ideas The process may be underway in Mexico $-lk ch Art-i The still- hallow roots of democracy in Latin America will be tested through 2020 as the region ontinues-and in some Latin America 1s responsible for approximately 30% of US oil imports with Venezuela accounting tor over half of this percentage 1 0untries struggle ' - to complete the transition to market-oriented economies and open dentocr i cy in the face of corruption social inequalities rampant crime and a legacy vf authoritarian mle Increasing transparency in political economic and military affairi ensuing from growing regional integnition is favorable for c ornwlidation of democracy in Latin America Nonethele the region's vulnerability to severe economk hocks and the failure of traditional party politic - based largely on personalism and - elf-interest -to addrcs the region s toughest social problems win continue l 1 generate threats to stability and f lH The trend could result in the rise of Fujimori- or Chavez-like strong-men '1 mdillos - willing to dispense with constitutional re traint and rhk international scrutiny in their efforts to roll back the erosion in the quality of life for many Latin Americans Also wm1h walching is the trend for some Latin leaders to try to extend their rule beyond legal limih by subversion or constitutional manipulation At 1his juncture Peru Venclucla Paraguay Haiti and possibly Suriname risk falling at least temporarily into mindemocratic rule in the next lO year This trend however may not lead to autoCidl' the process may actually make traditional parties and politicians more accountable md in touch with key is- ues or generate more responsive pani s in the pro1 e s strengthening democracy Subordinating milirary and eC'urity l dvilian authority and gaining their acceptance of civilian defense professionals probably will be widely accepted by 020 as armed t'on es adju t to their changing role and posilion in ociety However military im1titutions will retain signilicam influence and high levels of autonomy in many fOTCes ------------- ------100 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 sceRET H9F9RH ---- -- ------ - - ---- - - - - - - - - I' Rl'gmnol Asses ments Latin America cuuntrieo ill k- 1sr for the nl xr dc atle and som resi11tancc to more civilian involvellll llt in armed forces policy and operational activity will remain Most regional militaril s view themselves a guarantors of thd r constitutions Should politician opt for extraconstitutional measurc1oo to govern or extend themselves in office militaries could once again be tempted t intercede in political mallcrs Latin American leader arc for the most part likely to continue promoting markctorit nted e1 onomil' polides rm l rcfom1s but international economic conditions and an array of domestic economic fa tors could affect regional economic g rnwch and tability Publi tolt'raJ1 t' of reforms reduction in social 11erviccs and ef 1sion of quality of life incrca ingly will be chal11 nged in the ouL-year' ' if results are O tt tangible Multilateral trade agreements will remain popular anti many Lalin Amerkan go 'ernmcnts will pursue subregional or oLhcr groupings such as the Comm tn Markel of the South CMERCOSUR in the Sou them Cone w ai hieve a multilater _tl approach to trade in the region Trade i111egration anti tics 10 intema1io11al firmm ial institutions such as the IMF also sh lultl 1 heck most impulses to abandon marketoricnh d policies Defense budgets in gcneml will remain stagnant with military funding wntinuing to average just over 2cr uf GDP regionally IS l J Over the ne't twu decaJe rela- ti High performance cratt used #or 1mugglinQ military-to-military ties U S in1crven1inn to stabili1c a chaotic - illlation remains i distinct pos - ibility lnrra-reginnal relations will remain generally good throughout the periri l Strides in kmucrati nllion region 1l ix onomic integration and de 'cloping 1 ontidence and c urity-building measure among hemispheric nations and anned forces ill enhance interstate relations and 1 ooP' ration and f 11 iiitatc 1he peaceful rcsoIUlion of 1uarrl'ls H 1 Vewr regional armed forces will remain cnsith e to military development in neighhnring c oumrics Numerous unresolved land horckr md ncuural n source di tput s a' wdl as traditional animo itks and rivalrie v ill remain and ould perindil aJl y c 1use abrnpt armc-d clashe - twe n nr ighbof' chat will not lend thl 'm l lws 10 quid or ea y resolution liom twec n LUin American l OUnfrit' and the l'uitcd Stales-- e cpt Cuba and that too C Uld i hange -will remain friendly 1od positive The threat of anne I 1 onfron1a1io11 bctv -ce n a Tl gional military and the Llnited Stalt's i- small to noncxbtent However tension and disagrcemento over some is mcs such as rnand ned rcporrl un drug ccrtilkation and human right ob CfV UICe and practices and perceived interfrren1 c in domestit affairs will periodically complil'i1te W1lshingto11 's relations with hemispheric governments and affect - E6RB' U9F9RU Drug traftkking will remain a eriom threat and major source of conuption and violC'ni e in the Weslern Hemi sphC'r 1hrough 2020 and will continue lo generate problems in L S bilateral relations with many gcwemmems in the region Tr mc-n- dous wealth WHI 1 l llinue to 4 llO I drug tratfid ers 10 use political inltuen c hrihery an l 1ac1ical and srrn1 gk allia nces with insurgents an l parnmilita ry group w challenge local and na1innal curity fori es intimidate the ptipulace l Jld undermine FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 101 ------ - ----- ---- ---- -- ------- -- - talin America governments The violt nce and corruption as ociated with drug traffickinJ will challenge i everal governments abilities to assert control over national territories and perfom1 nation-building functions In countering the drug threat some nations' violation of humun righLc will become increasingly problematic and at lddi with The region not only supplies and proceass the raw mater olS It allo has an extensive U S goals and objectives network tor laundering a large potflon of the $600 billion annually derived from drug sa 8$ U Insurgency in Latin America while sig- allover the Kllitical and economic institutions could become sulY lantial in the next 5 years and it spillowr effects wi11 exacerbate an am1y of destabilizing pmbkms in neighboring countries While immrgencies elsewhere will not seriously threaten stabilily they wiJI demand scarce resources and counterinsurgency operation will inevitably lead lo accusations of human rights abuse nificantly de1 -reased will remain a threat in S mlc countrie - panicularly Colombia Peru Panama and Mex ko through the near-tenn Given current trend the threat of instability to the security of Colombia world Not surprisingly drugs are lhe main source of corruption In Latin American ncJtton$ If Raul Burzaco Former A1g9ntlne Minlsferof Information support gt'Owth of democracy and counterterrorism have lowered the activitie '1- and profiles of tht region terrorist grou - These groups will 1ry to reinvent themselves moderating their Marxist rhetoric while - eeking to tenera1e popular support by embracing the causes of ami-neoliberalism land redistribution indigenous rights nationalism and poNiibly even ew1ogical preservation E t mal terrorist groups i uch af radical Middk East organizati1ms probably will Ct ntinue to M C Latin America as a venue for infiltrating overseas communilics primarily 10 rni e funds and to undertake cctive operations ugainst U S or hraeli interests The region's terrorist grou and insurgencies are likely to remain ami-ll S lit least in rheloric because of lJ S identificalion with marketoriented economic policies Latin America's population growthan estimated 122 million or about 25% in the next decade alone - will create labor pooli thal will outpace even the most opti- mistic econnmic projection As a re ult Latin America-particularly C entral Terrorism will persi - I in Latin America through 020 Se oeral fa 1ors- lo s of America Mexico and the Caribbean-will remain a major source of ilkgal immi- UNCLASSIFIED Latin American and Caribbean Demographics f llOO I ___ v' I - JV 102 J l 19 10-74 IM4 5Mf ll0-6' i -- t-- V -1 40-44 Ht 3H4 2t-lt vv I ' I I _ __ n u so - M 15-11 10-14 s mam 5-t IM 5anu sa - s 3m o - -- eeHRBGBP'4'fblcL - - - - - - Latin America gration into the United Slates Migrant remi1tanL-e ' from 1he U S pmbably will remain a critical ingredient of many Latin economies and migratiQn will remain a key social safety valve for many countries A ma ior unraveling of the political or economic ituation in Cuba Mexico Haiti or the Dominican Republic could produce major mass migrations Iowan I the Unitt ' l States tU The region also will remain highly vulnerable to natural disasters Regional governments anJ mullilateral organizations will h10k to Washington to provide the bulk of any needed humanitarian aid However Lalin militaries will continue to play a leading role in dii aster relief in Iheir respective countries Most re ional miJi1aries will focu' ' throughout the period Qn force modernization restructuring and redefining roles and mi sinn only a few countries uch as Chile and Brazil will acquire major advanced weapon 'l'ystems Argentina Pem Ecuador and probably Venctuda also would like lo moderni1 e their tighter inventory but budget shortfalls are likely to present obstacles No ballistic mis ilc development program are active in the region and none are projected to be staneJ or renewed during the period The lhreat of regional nations acquiring WMD 1s considered small Colombia and other nations probably including Mexico will focus their modernization and sustainment programs on impro ing capabilities to tight bor h drug trafficking and in-surgem y The United States will he looked upon a primary source for training and equipment and by many a - a model Lo emulate Downsizing rcstnicturing and redefinition of roles and missions are likely to lead to increased inlerest and panicipation in multinational pe cekeeping operations by the region'i governments and anned forces in order lo retain at feust minimal defen e capabilities Most countries how- 3 CR f cvt r will restrkt uch participation Lo activities oul ide the hemisphere and will require or seek outside suppm1 particularly funding transponation logistics and possibly equipment Cemral American efforts to foster enhanced regional military cooperation and inreg ration such ao the Conference of Central American Armed Fore as a means of focu- ing increa - ingly Sl'arcc resources on common military requirements are likely 10 grow By 2020 such etfo11 may expand to include sever ii Caribbean nations However lingering border disputes and historic distrust will continue IO impede the undertakings The Panama Canal wiU revert to ful1 t 'cmtrol of the Panamanian government by the end of 1999 The Panamanian National Police PNP lhe country's nominal groond - ccuriry force will a sume total re ponsi- bility for protel ting the canal open1ting area along with its other national i ecurity mission Although the current threat to the t anal is low the increase in re ponsibility wiU strain the already limited re ource1 and capubiliriei of I he PNP which will fat continued and possibly even larger challenges from narcotrafl cking and border security ii suc FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 103 Latin Ametico be likely lo park debate over the extent of politkal liberalization inside and outside the Communii t Party Fundamental politi- cal change would probably result Cuba's division-riddled and pen onal ity-dependent domestic oppo iLion groups are unlikely lo gain much future levemge even in a posl-Ca tro Cuba The Catholic Church will suppon democratk refonns but not regime-d1 -stabiliz 1ng activities Cuban exiles lack the military capability or political uppon in Cuba w destabilize lhe island but their activitiei l'Otdd provoke a U S -Cuban military confrontation UJ Gatun Locks Panama Canal Altemative Futures Mainlaining economic stability and growth will be the 1 hief challenge to Castro and the Party over the upcoming 5- IO year period Poor or declining economk growth would be far more likely than Ca - tro's departure to provoke domestic instability and disagreement over appropriate l'-'lioni to be taken State control of lhe economy and Havana inabilily to bom w money from international lenders will continue to hinder economic growth As a re ult Havana will have 10 choose between conCUBA tinue d state control of Lhe economy with accompanying popular fru tration and gen Fidel Castro remains in tlrm control of uine economic liber dization that may pro the Cullan JPYOvernment and i likely to be its chief of state for as long as he desires His departure from power however is virtually certain before 2020 probably from natural death or voluntary resignation Political calculation will inlluence heavily any decision by Castro to volulllarily leave otlice and he 110 doubt would name his successor anJ assume the role of elder ' tatesman with veto power over important policies Thou h currently unlike1y a prolonged global finam ial crb is would take its toll on the 1 'Conomies of Brazil and Mexico An economic collapse would create major instability in these l tates compounded by widespread odul disorder This could generate u migrati m surge und endanger U S ci1i1 en and interests in the region In addition such an environment would db rupt counterdrug dfo11s in Latin America The Cuban Communist Party - even without Ca tn l al the helm-likely Viii remain in pow r However a poi t-Castm government -- panicularly after Castro s death- probably would liberalize the economy more rapidly and any concomitant relaxation of Ll S foreign policy would The Cuban MIG-29 an acqulsiHon after Ifs time - -------- -- ----104 FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 9EeRB IV Reg1onol Asse Sments Latin Americo - Scuffled Cuban dul 't' autonomous Koni Closs frigate ii m cr h N s aml MEXICO demands for pnlitkal rl fonw -ff 't'CuntinueJ slolll ontwl of lhl ' cninorny ind or slo l l conomic nx n lory will nmuragc Cuhan l' llli ralitin ln the Vnitl d State Tlw Cuh m gmcnrnll'lll currl ml s cms in1c11t on ho1111ring rhc migration a rl'l 'rnent wilh thl' Unitl U Shlll's hut sl' _ i rnl hunllrt d thouc and C'uhar1' Hmld likto 10 lca c th1 i'land A d1 mgc in Cuha s pol il 'y 1 r signitil anl crnnomk or politic 1I curmoil on lhL' isl md 1 011ld lead lo a major outllow nf rdugcc' I The Rl 'vulutiorwr o rmcd h1n l 's IFAR will rl 'main lnyiil 10 Castro Thi high omrnand h is tkruonstratcd o n1 crn r thl ' spl d of l 'C11m mi1 rl 'form - -- thl 'y filvorct I n111rl' rapiJ h mgt' prior to l lJIJ J - hut prohably will Ctllllinul ' to agree ith Ca tw rm the nct d to maintain lhc Communist Puny monvpoly lll roliLiL al plo cr U Mexican Army on patrol in the troubled southern stot9 of Chiopas mff l tni ' o ill n1111inuc ih hi tllrit llcmonatk tran i1io11 Pnli1k 1l power will ht 1 omto more diffus d as Lhe lnstilul i1111al Revolutionary Party PRh l C ih traditi1111 il dominam c and a multi-part 'Y ll ltl emerge' Opposition pank will l mtinu1 tn gain a morl al'li l' rok in 11 'cming the coun11 l'Ollle tinf decti1111 at the felknil Continuin budgetary rnn twiuts will prc 'cnt the 50 000-rnan FAR frum dept stale and lol al k' ds The prc iJcmi il ing suhsL mtial num rs of comh it troo1ls dection in July 000 will sh pe Mc icn abroad or ubst tnlially impro 'ing tighring politil'al future and 11 this point any 11f -k ico ' - three major parties 1 ould win chi ability for al least the next d1 cade A m ll I clel Cion number deployed in th1 Congo and Ghana m providing a fundc service tloY cwr IS il J lc xil o military will 1 1m Cuhan Cl'Uri1y for cs arc likely to remain rc 1nsiw tn a 1m n o Jihor- e polilil al dill fully rapablc of maintaining internal stabil- a' oppo ition parties grow nwrl ill 'ohc l in ity in Lhe f u c of an y 'J Xmtancou or orga- ll 't' ming the n 11ion Fucure t i iJ -milit iry ni1 1 ' l lome tic unrest relati1ms may rcdi hnt 'ti anti t ivilian 9 CIEf HOFORN FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 105 IV Regiona l Assessrients taffn Amencri leaders may opl 10 remove the military from some ci -il police and contml func lions -fer Nan otics trntliddug and its ability ro in1imida1c and 1 ormpt ollicials at all levels will po a fonnidahle challenge Lo Ml 1 - ic o' s gnwmment and society in gcncr d Mexican criminal groups will become vcn more involved in both rhc mon 1ncnt and dislribtuion of 1 ocainc serving the ll S markel Mt xko abo will remain a heroin supplier md the main stlurce for mo t of the foreign-dl rivcd mcthamphetamine and marijuana in the United Slclles 1hrough 2020 ASSIFIED tU Mexico partidpalion in the Nonh American Fn 1 Trad1 - ----- -- --- ----- - -- Populatton Growth In Latin America In millions Brazil Colombia 169 2 98 9 38 9 Argentina 37 0 Peru 25 7 Venezuela Chile 24 2 Mexico Panama 5 2 2 9 2020 208 5 125 0 50 2 45 3 33 8 32 9 18 8 3 6 Agrtocmenf CNAFli will m 1k 1hc trou1sition tu a market economy im wrsihll' Northem Mcllit an slate incrc 1singly will ocrnmc integrated wi1h the U S c ' onomy ----rdl ling new dirc1 t foreig n inwstmcnr suh lanlial infrnslrul' lllrl' i111pruvcme111s anu slowly expanding fl 'c tral ammgen nt I with the fl l of t111 world-while southc m stm1 s will rnnlinuc to lap in job and inrnme growth Economic n stmcmring umkn icwlopcd safety ncl- and overnmcnf rviccs marginalizntion of impovl rishcJ 1'h1les and continued dcficil ncies in public education will hamrx-r Mc im in resolving prcssin social is ucs increasing it - vulnerability Ill continued insurgcnl ac1ivi1y and oc1 asional localizeJ violcnl uphl il 'als Hi ' ff' J Long-stanJing dceply-rookd Mex ican scnsitiviti over perceived U S c11croachment on Mcxkan sovereignty and undue tJ S influence over Mexican affairs will comimito lo afkct and limit ti nature of bil ilcral relations with the United States Mc - ko 1ie1-iodk111ly will show its disapproval of 1 n cived U S meddling in its internal affairs but will avoid jeopardizing economic ties 106 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 BRAZIL Brn - il shoukl nmkc consid rnbk progress tow ird asserting itself as the prinl ipal political cc onomic and military power in South Amcrku by 20 0 Politi1 ttlly Brazil is solidly democratic Despik a St'rics of political aud puhlic security 'rises that could have afforded the military lhto prclc1' l for inlcrvcnlion in polilics the arrncd forces havt shown nP intcrcltl in involving ttwm lvcs in ti poli1 ic al process cxccpl for lobbying on lct'cnse malrcrs The i11tluem of the military rvkc chiefs will diminish even funhcr with 1lw csrablishmcnt of a unifietl Dcfrnilc Mini lr- within the n x 'ear thou h 1hc complcle uhordination of lhl indc mlcnt servil l'S to the ministry will be grndual There are few si g uitic ml thrt ats thar would il upan Ji 1 e the dc1m K ralic order in Brazil Leftist labor p rnies haw wondertions at loL al and ltlatc levels ai well as in the nmional lcgi c fature hur their agcmla ha liulc public support ll the 11r11ional ll Vd Prolcsts and pm rty conli tca1i0th hy organized landless roup hm'c gcncr at d loloali7 lxl u- nllict and nationotl puhlicity hul have nm gl ncrated ctle tin politk il S CR T l OPOoH4 l 1 l ------ - ---- ----- support police and military - ecurity forces have contained them No domcslic terrori I groups are active Brazil's public security forces augmented by the military as directed by the pre ident will be able to conr ain the f'-'Cble and sporadk challenges lO public order razil will follow an active foreign policy agenda aimed at increasing its influence as a regional power and fluthering i s historical aspiration to be recognized as a world power Brazilian foreign policy wm be strictly independent based on Bra7 il's perceptions of ils interest-i Brazil's foreign policy will remain aimed at enhancing its global political prestige and integrating it into the world economy on the mo t favorable terms pos ible Br izil and the United States will enjoy good cooperative initiatives when their foreign policy objectives coincide but Bntzil occasionally will distance itself fmm U S positions Braiil will continue to press its intl resl in becoming a permanent member of the UN urity Ctmncil Brazil wjJI maintain the largeM armed forces nearly 300 0fXl in Latin America while taking mea ure to improve il operational capahilitiei Strategic t ecurity prioritiei over the next t wo decal es will be on force modernization including the acquisition of advanced fighter aircraft in the next decade the Anny's Rapid Reaction Forces effective integration of computerized C'l at the national level and deployment of the Amazon Surveillance System SfVAM STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS 'te1 By irtuc of its proximity to the U S Lalin America will conlinue a a strategic M BrCJlil's Avtblas ASTROS II MRL Interest well heyond 2020 O onomic cooperation and integrntion will funher the importance of thi relationship The threat of drug trafficking and ac sociated organized crime and the implicarions of ountering il will remain a comple'- and at time contested issue in the region TI1e United States will periodkally be chalJcnged to dc J wi1h Latin American politicians tainted t y allegations of ties to traffick rs U Migration brought on by economic Jctcnnini m and political dissatisfa tion as well as f uturc humanitarian disa ters will have a direct political and economic impact on the United States throughout the next two decades Some countries may retain the trappings of democracy but fall back to de facto authoritarian rule thereby creating subtle cha llenges for the United States Though it faces no conventional threar the Panama Canal could function in a less tlum o ecure enliironment under lackluster Panamanian stewardship The safe transpon of U S economic and military rcsoorces through the canal and re iun will remain of greal concern UNClASSIFIED Brazitlan Economics At A Gkmce In $ To1al GNP PPP 1999 1-1 btlUon Per Copita Income 6 7 thousand 2020 2 6bllion 12 8 thousand llBrazillan economy Is the 8th rargast In the world measured by GNP at cunent exchange rates 9GBP6Rff flJfU lE THREAT 1999-2020 107 IV Reg c r al ------- -- ---- Asses mu1ts _____ _____ R Powe1s Regional Powers Ambitions of regional powers will lead to conflict somewhere world each decade in the REGIONAL POWERS ISRAEL SOUTH AFRICA IRAN TURKEY SYRIA BRAZIL IRAQ NORTH KOREA SAUDI ARABIA INDONESIA NIGERIA EGYPT U Kim Chong-II and ltustlKI milllOly ocMsots ml Regional power posses iggrcgale comprehensively North Korea Serbia and capabilities less than those of the major Libya Regional powl rs in gcner tl will gain powers but greater tlrnn tho e of le r in influence and power by 2020 They will statt 's Today s regional powers include do so because of pr jccted long term posiBrazil Eg ypt Syria lsrat'I South Africa tive economic growth rates in the developNigeria Turkey and Indonesia Also in this ing world and more UCL essible information category are a num r of so- called rogue technology and tran ponation i yi tem tates including fran and Iraq and Je s U Some regional poweri will ambitious in their areas because they will want to attain t -ontrol of regional wealth or key re Ource - or because their leader will want to divert attention from dome'itic problems through external aggrcssfon In addition some of these states will l e themselves a - ideolo icaUy pitted against the We t Some for example will inHuenced by potitic tl or religious extremism Historically few decades have not had military conflict among powers of thb size and we are unlikely Lo tr msition through the next 20 yeai without more of the alllC U SfN'blan tonk ___________ 108 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED V Detense 5y5tems S conce ano Jc cr nology Ove1view Overview tll The fore and tools inlegral to the dewlupmenl of national defense policy and military doctrine art' experiencing an evolution conrurrenl with the dynamic chanii e in politics el'onontics and technology foda M Klernb nfion Uld hybi-idb ation are prevalt nt in iriually ewry tacct of mitiwry force srrud11re while mii tile f'ones and spm-t -related systems are being Upjtraded or de oelopcd with new technoloJ il's To date 1hc dewlopment und integrated application ot' the most important military technologies and concepts has l tttn limited to advanced we 1crn milifarks-particularly the llnitt 'tl Stales One key reason is l' ' Dnomk In general tht'Sl' let hnologies arc nry cxpenshe to dnelop and maintain and most nations have empllll sized oth 'I' priorities since the end of the Cold War With reducl d domestic procurement del'lining fiJrci n consumption and other fiscal impcratiws You can do anything many nations have not had the mothitlion the rcsourn-s or the capubility to with a bayonet except pursue high tt dmolo milifar endca oors This has resultt'd in lhc pursuit of sit on If force downsiz in n 'Struduring and the ol'quisition of sub-systems and t omponenls neres 'illr_v to improve exis1ing platforms and capabilities In H f'ew - Napoleon Bonaparte cases such as Iraq Iran and North Korea there remains u willinJ ness lo maintain higher levels of strah ogic development at the ex1iense or com1entional forces and socit'tal demands lH lnt reasin1e military technul kal potential c ombined with conslrained defense spt nding worldwide make it extremely difficult to forecast just hich tedtnologies in what quantity and form will rnake it into the milit ary cupabilities of future 1dn r- saries In many cases the issue will no longer be which technok gies provide fhe greatest military potential but which will rt't eive the po iticul und resource hacking to reach lhe procurement and fielding stage In a relofed trend ciliilian tt-chnology develupmcnt is now driving military technology development in man countries This puts a higher premium on understanding how potential adversoaries link their cMlian and military research efforts and on identirying those nations that 11re innovatiw in appl ing vice developin ad oanced technol0tties to military ends ll The new and modified conditions of' forces and technology af1ect our own etTort tu structure the U S armed forces int'luding the planning den lopment and procurement of current systems a well as the de Velupment of' the strategy and doctrine to face the adversaries of I he future -- -- ---- - - -- - -- - - - - --UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 109 Global Defense Trends a major rcducli 111 in global dek1hc ntanfXl ' r luring the 1a 1 decade Thi trend jo 1995 Slow economic mwth in 1 near likely to ontinue alhcit it a slower p 1c term will provide link c apiWI for nny si - fm mmt of the 1m jor power' Ill i ontrnst nilicum upward trend in Jl 'fcns s 11ding m my regional power - will maintain relati 'l' inti inJt ocJ wilh low onvcntional threat s1 1bility in their nurnht r of IL li I forces and in l t gions of tension or connk1 ll rc lCrl'Cplion l Omhinct I wilh signiticam domci ti1 sp nding impcr uiw-s defense actually may hl' im rea s in the si tc of miliplanners will be hard prcs Ctl to justify ig-- tary fore cs Such im rca s u o lili cly to be nilicant 1ncrc iscs States will - eek hi r ' ap- circumstantial howevt r with i mmtril'S italitc inwnturics llld L'slorc some expmkliug 1hcir m Tiw m 111powcr only dwn l tpabilitics air ddcn' l 'I that h ivc gcncr- compelled hy spccitk cwnls The pml l'Css illy languished 'inn 1hi latt 191- 0s hut ot' forceo n odt1l' fiuns and 1djus101cnts will uch ri rnpi1 1Ji1 11ion gl 11c111lly will be conlinue In ht o i'mslr tk'1l b v it illaling polilmtxk 'st Tlwrl' will he 1m1 1hll' t XCL'ptions ic al _ upport and lem lc -ship At the anll C-'lll l'ially in counLrics thal M d weapons ol lime such 111 'asun o will haw hl an 11un1 for mi 1 s dcstrm lion tnli mi ik s - - tcms for i111pt ovcn 111s in hou ing rc1in 111l 111 and Lhc klivcry of WL'a1xin - i111er- -cgio11ally otht r 411ality of-lifc i i ll - The ft llowin gmphic lcpil'ts the wmltl' large il li l' amu d fot l'' along with 1hdr gi ucr tl tn nd llllTC t C l t' l Olllllllil' Ctlllstrnilltll md n lclinctl military rt quircmcnts hm'l' kd 1u in 111a11pow1 r Di fcnsc spending ha o lcwlcd tiff glo- tiall y si 11 c Ihe precipitous fall from I 98i 111 New infantryman to commanding officer Sir where is my fox-hole The officer's quick reply You ore standing on it Just throw the dirt UNCLASSIFIED outl - Author Unknown Size of 500 000- to 1 000 000 Armed FOfces Iran -------------- - PakiSron------- Great Bnfoin -German y-Franca- ----- 200 00 10 --- --- oN Italy______________ Burma-- ------ -- ROmankl--- POi Yld___ jroq --- - -- Ukraine lrdonesio- ---------- ---- ' mooo - m - m o oo -- --------------- Egypt ---- - ------------------ --------------- o rl Fluctuating or nearly stable All European NATO countries aggregated -- -------------- ---------- -- --- - ------------ -- -------- ------------------------------------- SU m EURS lnlEUR rt1 llle_ofl Jl ln it1tute for St10191 1G sr s ---- ---- ------ -- ----- ----- ---------- ------- - ----- ---------- --------------------------------------- _----- --------1 no FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 eeHflMlfflAt l --------- ---- ----- -- '1 JPYH i Ni'i'f'i'Hi ii 'll I i Global Oef8nse rends Allhllu h 1b g ohal lrl nJ i I stcudy or lkdinto in am1l'U fon tos the o 1 rall num'1cr nr a li 'C lfllll'd fnr1 1 can Ixo misll ading For inslur 11 e they Lio rml tak intlo K'i 11unt noscrvt' clcmcm anJ their rolt' in national ci uri1y 'onh Korea's rc cr 'c total about 4 7 111illi1m mid will he irn luded in a1 ailabk firi t lini ' pcrsomwl in iny m jor conllict Thi' rcpr sl'lllS 1hni-r 1 f I ' uf' Norih Kmca nwk population bc of111'c1 11 1h1 o age' of 15 anll 50 Bra 1 il has a rdati dy low numlx r of 1l' iH' forws ir 1ho111 ' I J 000 1 omparcd to Ill' n1 oarl I million in it'i r1 s rvt'' The wlual trend in m mpo cr otlso l all he rnish iJing Vhcn China r1 dui c 'd the People Lihcraliuu ' nuy CPl J by soo noo it in ' 1- i d the P opk nncd Polil't ' by lhl' 11111 amnu111 rims r -pr o i 111in a shifl in fori cs th u nom 1in 1 poll'Uti il l'l oOllfl'L for thl' PL 11 j i111p1111a11r 111 111111 o lhal any long-rang1 l'or oi 1 1- on 111a11p11wcr i ucs will have ll l u11 hcyun l lhc numbers an J look at L'V11l li11g slrnh gil'S 111J dol lri1ws ilS 'di as lraiuing and rcallinc -tt't Thl' world anus 111 1rli l i ''i pcd1 od 111 ckdinc unlit 011 hcnlll l' of lhe ongoin worldwilil li11 11u ial l ri is Jn 19%-lJ7 n1 ow anll -1 awc llll'lll' lh i n N'd -' 1y Tlw drop in world oil prkc' wa' or h 1s lll ocn COl fll l IOIAL Kilo bound tor China pi1Tlll'ul trly p11ni hing tiJdk Fa ll'rn st U1 '' sL wr l lhnitin lh 'ir ahility 10 tinancl' lar arnh p111'1 ha e' lklin ry al- lll s whil'h h l c i111 'r a'L'll nonon1 ly 1s cqu1pmt lll purl'l1ll 'll 'd in the ah I l X h and '-'arly lJl ll's is li11 1lly l'Cl'L'ih'd will Jccri 1S signilkamly in th1 o nnnirt years 'ompclllion rnr fo1un ifllh 1 onll'ill'h will l unlinut ' lo l'llW makin tiff cl d 1b and crl lli L' lin 11wi11u nu i 1l in 11 1 1inin lhc m 1rk1 1 for 111 W irmm11c111' Sc ondham I markeh will flouri 'h hy itlr wting rn 10111cr' Ill' unahk 10 iff r J new wcaptm' eel4FIBEl411Jtt r - _ - --- - - -- - - - ---- - --- -- - - - - Arab -- furkav A acipi --i Ku d 101 f-Saudi ducers will refocus their Industrial efforts in two ways Producers In industrial nations will strive for consolidation and moderniza on and th0$8 in developing nations will aim for selective expansion Industrial ized nations which account for the overwhelming share of weapons prodUction will conHnue to consolidate their defense industrial efforts 1 I j i l oooo --- ----- - ----- - - - - ____J FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 11 l V Defensf' Systems Science and Technology ------ - - -- - -- ---- - - - --------- Globas Dal8111e rrends 69tffl9EUlMl 1 --- - - -- - - - - - 1 Projected Most Capable Regional Arms Producers excluding the U S i I 1 1 CU t ble ot leading regl rense producers ts ad- a subiecfive comparaflve measure of the overall breadth and depth of Industrial This capablHtles protected over the next 1O years Actual output of weapons wHI depend on economies force requirements and export orders The countries are listed in order of importance from left to right by region cross-reglonal comparisons are not implied euROPE ASIA 1 ---- -- ----- ' Fraanc euic - - -- 1 Germanv -- 11a v----- - - -- kipan China South Korea - -- - 1- r- soUTHEAST ASIA - --- Australia t MENA israe1 _ -- l A -- - - -- SUBCONTINENT ------ - TTran - --- -t Egypt - --- ----- -------- --- US a -u koa -t r-- -- -- - I India N- -Ro - l e i - - - - 1 -' - J -- --- - - - J - --- - Pakistan J_ -- o- - --- -- --l b 1 1 4 C - - - _______ L_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -- - - - --- _ 112 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 SECRET -- - - -- ------1'1'1 tllflff l liliil'lf'lli'l'il ll'l' l' l'fl'lfl'l I Ground Forr o Treil'lds Ground Force Trends U 1o t ground for e' an undergoing downsizing Many developing countries haw outdated 1 4uipmen1 that i ilher nonoperational or in scriou db repair while their mridcmization l'ffort' focus on acquisition of updateJ Cold War system - Dc 'eloped nations are in variom stagl's of modernization hut mo t are 1 ontending with rl sourcc com lition with other defense programs as well as dLim stic issue Dc t Uinc is evolving slo I ' worldwide hnwewr most nations continue to adhere to antiquateu cactics and practices mirroring old Western or Soviet m1Kles Ll vds of training and logistics are in tandem with kvds of 111o lcrniza1ion and doctrinal ad 'anccmcnt Doctrinal rigidity can 'crve as a brake on making uo e of new or enhanct cJ syscems Baualion-k-vel cxen i es are the norm for most clevelopin nations and mo t will lm k any pmficiem y at 1 onducting joint e ercises an l combined irm opcraliono U To halanL e the Jemands or responding rapidly Lo local or regional contingen1 ies while maintaining a capahility to mobilite for Jarge- ale war many stale' are adopting - o UJ Germon lnfanrryman participates In NATO field oxerclse a tkrcd readines I structure They are maintaining a relativi ly small but we 11train d 111d i -quipJl' d punion nf the force at high readinc while keeping the bulk of the ti m at cadre or pre-rnobilinllion M ltUS Id with immense enthusiasm he will lead them in person when they world ground return In the less developed forces will remain the primat m ans of Ltrmed combat and many or these fcm ei will be uipped 'ith mor sophisci ated 1U The emperor sent his troops to the - Marl Twoln U Egyptian armor units although remonably well equipped rec 1ve liffle large-seal unit training UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 113 '' '%H ''ld'f%'' l-111 1o1 fl-ouoooumoo o o o o ooooooouuuooo- ---u-o - - ----- ---- weapons plmform ' a ainsl murl' nwdern counterpart l' The main annament of ground light ing pkttfonns will tie characterized by greater range a curacy and lcthalil of munilions Glohally ground force c k clopmcnt and crnnpo -ition will begin w take i nh account lhc grow in fr qucn r of armed cncountl rs in urhan areas hy r iilor i11g forces to mcl't the demand- of thc e contingencies So potentially usdul ar dties to asymmetrii ally oriented militm for1 es that opposition forces will withdraw imo ur an 1 nvimns und cede the surrounding territory when facl d with l ' S military intcrventi n U Czech Anny T 72 Cl protoryPfl un l rnpahle W aponry The actual hactlelidd ctfo'- ti l nc - ' of ncwt 'r system will he mluccd by pcrsi'itt nl ' 'ihortfalls in training rnainlcnan1 c sup l 11 and low morak how n' r a unique opera- tional environment can pm ide a compensating ad ' rntagc IlJ Although ' omi Vhat dependent 011 onnmii constraints major armk will ckc tivdy improw their tanks and lighting Chides with o Western tirl ' ontml --ystcrns o night visi ln dl vic - o Ru sian add-nn pa- sive or reactive mnnr o threat warning and sysremo ob curant o activt protection y- tems coupled with dcfonsi C aid suites U With su h improvements devel- lping nation - can extend the bankfield utility of aging and U South Kofean T-BOU tonics nbsole cenl -------- - - ----- - --- - - - --------- - 114 FUTURE lHREAT 1999 2020 UNCLASSIFIED - ---------------- ----- - - ------------------ - -- - V Defe se System Science and ecrnolo_ gv Naval Force Trends Ul The foreign naval 1hrl 'al in lhl next 20 years will range from gen1 rnl warfare 1hrca1s in lhe lit10111l l nviroon1cn1 h 1 unique thrcals found in opcrntion' 01 r than war No1vc1I warfare will continue to diverse and omrkr l k cause of lhc variety nf ad wsaries ' illrnr ions un l fol't c capabilitic' that will challenge U S navotl fi lfCl s during thl' cxCl u_tion of lhc ir overseas presence and w11rligh1in g mi 'ions Tlw forei - n n wal threat will consbl largely of older platfnnm anJ WL'apons '- 'i-lloms howcvL'T a growing numhcr of mo1 krn more capahk splcllls will 11V tilahlc for hm ktit or new c11nsl11h lil1n No -lalc will dcwlop the capahilily Ill pn i cnt a h he1l m11riliml' du-cal on lhL Sl'11lc of the former Smoit'I l lniun U I fo- 1 of ltk ' Vtlfld's lk'Cls will rnn -isl ol' ship - not horg r than tbtroycrs 1111d frigalcs although a M kct fl 'W will n tain or build small tn ml dium- i1-l 'd ain r rfl l'illTicrs New o hi1 dcsi ns will cmphasi 11 ' imp1mcd mulli111i -si11n rnpatiility cnJurmiclo rt 'tlllceod ignaturcs and iftl'l'ca d sy lem au1onmtio11 The min tlm al will increase a - m11i-itirnc forces 1 ontimK' to s1 e mine - as cheap and effective weapons against ships and subnrnrinl's Mosl coontries will continue lO U' C ' hips a ' lh ir primary naval deployment platfonn although by 2020 a g n atcr number will use subnu1ri111 '' and aircraft in lht n1inl' layin role Then 1lso will be inc1-cm ing numbers of n11 rc cx pcnsive -ophblicatcd pmpcllcdwarhead mines such ncapsulalL'-lt tor lh s Mi111 o tidd - usrng such minl s will cover - ignilican1ly grcatL'r area lhan in the pai-1 ' 'It Is not the business of a naval offlcer to write books - IMDM F H Ramsay endorsing an unfavorable fitness report on AHred Thayer Mahan in 1893 ttrt A numhcr of f ll tor- arc making l 111iShip Crui c - fo - ilL S ASCMsJ illl'l l -asingly altracliW It lli Val rorL'CS iududing the 'llriely of - ystcm' il 'llilahk fur purdwse 1hcir rdu1iwl low ust m1 l the improving cap 1bili1y lo pr dscly 1rikl' targets at lung range while ' lhl amc time countering 1 l fen ivc syslel 11' The thrl al from whrmtrinl's will he considcrnbly diminisho tl however it will r m 1i11 important in coaslod wattors lo whirh many smaller navic' arc conlhux Althouuh their capatiilitics conlintk ' lil decline Rus ian ubmarinl 's and weapons will continue to he the padn undcrsl'a tcchuologirnl diallto ngl' 10 U S maritime capabilities The thre H from lOrpcdocs is cx cicd to increase ib older obsokscent weapons are f 'J lal ' ell with higher 4uality advanced torP'- c 1 1' ' WakC'-homing lOrpt' k s arl' c flCl'llod to rl'main lhl primary thrL' ll 10 surf rl'C ships thmughou1 lhl' nnt O Yl'ms Highly orhisticatcd l n11111t r-111casurc1 sisl Utl iwusl ic hon1ini tor lol'S iwill p N th prcdl11ni11an1 lhn al t o suh1narinc French la Fayette Closs frigate is one ot #he lalesl in a generation of stealth ships II is atso available lo export Ofld has alleady been purchased by Saudi Arabia and Taiwan rhe FUTUA'E THA'EAT 1999-2020 115 v Defense Sy tom$ Science end Technology Naval Force Tren0 U Future lndlan Shishumar Clau Submarine German type 209 1500 9Ee1m SEelET Selected Future Submarines Operational by 2020 - - - - -- - - - - Type Country - - - - - - Selected Major Countries with SUbmarine Forces In 2020 China - - - ---4--- - -- Dolgot ukty SSBN Russia ---- -- ----- Russia S veroc Mmk SSN SSBN-P-1 China - - - - - - - - ----- SSN-P-1 China - - - - - - - -- - - India ATV SSN SSBN Israel South Africa Australia Sweden India PakiSton - - - - - - - I _ _ _ J _ _ - Algerkl -- Japan - France - - --- - - Chlle Egypt Brazil YugoSlavia Indonesia - ----- -- ---L---- -- ----- ---- b 1 1 4 CJ 116 FUTURETHREA11999 2020 SECRET - ------ --- - -- - ---- -- - - - - - - V Defense Systems Science ond lochnology Air F01ce Trends Air Force Trends On r the next 20 year global aircrah in 'entorics will Clllltinuc tu decline in num rs hut residual aircrnft will tend to he rnnrto ll Chnologicully c 1pable and lclhal The im rcascd capability will result in par1 from their cxtcndt 'd range multi-role mbsilln capabili1y and mulLipl cngag m nt capability The prolikrntion of udv mce l air-w-air missiks pn -cision-guirkd munitions crui'- e mis iles aud mart capons' al will im rea- c the defense and strike 4 apahility of air fc 1r e s glob illy Most ouutrics will focus on modified and upgra1 kd ver ion c1f proven airfr unes tornll however n source shonfolk training d- hcicn i s and - - - - - - - - inadequate C 1J EW suppor1 and nmiutc Airplanes are internan e apabilitieli v ill limit tht omhal estfng toys but of no d'tcctivencss lf most air forces Ul military value Unmanned aerial vehicles CUAV will - Marechal Ferdibe useJ increasingly for sur '-'l illam i r con- nand nai ancl anJ ultimately strike rnis' ions Foch Professor of Lll -co l syo tem Vilh a flcx ihle paylo id Strategy Ecole and long time-on-st ition i apahility will ht Superleure dB Gue e 1 alled on for mission - in h1gh-threa1 itua- - - - - - - - - tion or whl re sustained overage is nel'C' sary Tnday' advanced t chnologie- pmbably will be nff-th -shclf led111ology in 2020 and rtoaJily J ailablc worldwide iE@REf Projected 4th Generation Upgraded and 5th Generation Aircraft I Aircraft Producer Typhoon Euroftghter Europe Italy Spain Germany UK Rafale j France Mirage-2000 France Su-37 Berkut Su-30MK1 Russia Russia Chinese new fighter China Grlpen Sweden U SU Jl Berkut Fighter U JAS-39 Gt pen Fighter SE8RET - ---- Iron Argenttno Gennanr _J Selected UAV Producer Countries Russia India Australia Italy - Canada Japan ChJna North Korea France United kingdom Israel South Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 117 V Dofense Sy - lems S 1encc and Tectmology Air Defense Force Trends I L1 Manv nation lH mi1 a111 of thl ach 101age afforde1 i thos potential opponent' UNCLASSIFIED iI o I Most effe tive non-Western inlegr 1 ted air defenses I through 2020 I Ru sia i China Iran I I North Korea i lndia o Growing air defense threat to low slow unprotecred ' aircmft o More sophis tic uted MANPADS j threat on the or_iz_o_ p 1 - ssing superior air warfare ADA will incri L ingly be t' f l 'cted tn c frctively counter preci ion Uitlcd munition ' and cruise missiles capabililitos and faced with the high Clhl of oocquiring airborne defenses will place Shon-range air defcn c coverage will oo high pr mium on impnwing thl'ir be accomplished hy 1ANPADS shortground hascd air defenses However rnngt SAM ystcm and AAA ' stt nL while a1 ross-the-bocird up mdes in mis- kt n e force will operate these IA Capon siles and t ns 1r capabilit will occur in highly mobile units tired b a 11 indi id most stat s will hl' urwhll' to acquire and ual soldier or from - ciali i d v hicks tield inlegrated o1ir defense networks and Their association with advam l 'd urvcillance equipmelll and C41 y tcm will systt m which will limit opcrntional enable thcl c pr viuusly limited sy lcm to cffectivenco l f th nl w tedmologit s become increasingl y lethal at provi lin ' ' Tal tic al SAM t1 chm1logie will l'l'll poin1 Jcfensl' tinu to improvi including more - ophi ti- cated seckc nsur'i propulsion Air ddcnsc laser v capon ' capahk 11f guidance mJ cQncrol warhead fusing sig blinding pilot'i and airer if optical nsor nai pnx essing and ai quisilinn anJ tradiing and inthcting strudural d n11agc Lo wcopoll Jevice These i hange' will place 'igniti- platform are likely to be deployed b ' 2021 ' cant Ji mando tin the ountermt asures devdnpmcnt community hy Russia and Jllis ihly China Some pilo10linding wea1xms m iy tlC deployi d earlier Air lden artillcr't' iADAl will on1inuc to augment 1xtint ddensc of high o alue tar et Ad 'an cd tll weatht r nicht and fu eJ-data c 1pabilitie will make tr ditional ADA wcapt n a durable threat to air opcrarions thmug hmll the forc ast period Increased numher s or nmbined cun and missik air ddcnsc sy tern ill- appl ar many through imcgrating c tisting ' Di guns and mao-purluble air dcfonse wstem lMANPADS l or shtlft-range SAf I - tem - U Russian S-300CSA 10 Air Defens Missffe Sysfem 118 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 IJ Swedish R'BS-23 Bamse Air Defen$fl Missile System SEEURRET V Defense Systems Science ond Technology Missife T1en 1s Missile Trends Since the beginning of t Silf'ofl By 2020 North Korea Iran and dc ll n ling on sam tiom perhaps lr tll will Jikl ly have joined th ICl1l 1 Cluh with ii 'oaricly if payload optiuns PaJ _i rnn and India will tw constrainl l from joining prmwrily tiy a Jc1 i sion tn do su India could convert a SLY into an ICBM in 2-5 the 20th Century the whole Idea of distance has changed This alteration In spallol values 'car ivcn sud1 a dcl i ion Chi11 1 will of the haw J plliycd at ltoast l ll 11 w came about in llffle more than a single gen- eration 1he ruling ldea GBnnans In the conduct of #his war 1CBM 'Ys- WWII was speed We 1he French on the other hand did our thinking in fefmS of yesterday Of the day ti ms llv 2010 Proliferation of ICBM hto considcrl d inm the rnrrent -illingness of st1d1 countrit'' as Nonh KorL'U to C 'tpurl mi ik 1 dmolug It cc ms more li dy l O thal Iran P 1ki o stan anJ c cntually lra4 and other coun lrito f cum crn nwy hc ihk to pun halll' or indi nou ly dto clop iml proc luL 4 'ompo lll'lll for an ICBM in 1hc ncxt dl t adc b hcd in part on thc ' 'lorth Korl m sun tos with the Till' ' Dung I in I lJ9X tl'lll - imuld 11 0 before - Marc Bloch Strange DsfBOt b 1 1 4 c 1 4 Id U Indian Prithvt SRBM b 1 1 4 C 1 4 d U Pakistani Ghaurt MllBM Miuile 9EC Ef f 6F61U FUTURETHREAT1999-2020 119 U 1H Yii'i i Niii i i 'flfr ---- -- - - Miss1'9 trends b 1 1 4 c Missiles with ranges 3 000km and under are also considered Theater Ballistic Missiles TBM 120 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 SECRET - - --- - -- M'ftii 'f 'i''i 'f ''l' le' - -- - Missile Trends b 1 1 4 C ---- - --- l 1cBM i l Jn1cn on1inen1al B illi ric Mi ilc JRBM - lntemicdiate Runge Ballisti ' ' 1RB' 1 - fa ik M dium Ranue Ralli 11i Missile SLRM - Sea Suhmarioc l 1u11died Balli cic fa ik TBl 1 - Thc 1ter Balli lil Mis ik LACM -Land l lta k CruiM Mi ilc ALCM -1 ir Launo hed Cruise Mi ile SLCM -Sca Ll 111d1 d C111is Mi sik Indio hos reach9d a stage where nobody from anywhere would f OS9 a threat - George Fernandes Indian l e1snse Min lier Alter spring J999 Agni missile tests roq's Al Samoud SRSM will have a maxJmum roo ol 140km wfth o pro ec cl payload capab Hty of JOOl Q EGRET FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 121 v Defense Systems Science and Technology Regional and cro - -rcgi mal coalilions will share bnllislit mbsilc let h1111logics and prod111 tio11 capahililit s Future deployed or Jcveloping systems will have incrca LI range hl 1 ausc t f lighter tilt stronger muterials and advam ed propellants Enhanced accuracy of future missile systems will be possibk l ly the use nf improved guidan 'C io tnnncnts and llH 'igaliom1I aids that alrc-miy ar a iilabk or in development A kw 1 nuntries may prove innovative in their launch i ap 1hililics Future cunfticti prob ibly will involve lhl' u c of tht 'C wce1pon sy' tt ms with WMD im luding nudeolr weapons bX1 1 4 c U The KH-35 represents Russia's most adVanced cruise miJsl e technology and will have both air and sutface launched variants 122 FUTURE THREAT 999-2020 SECRCT w 11 1 H' ffr'f'f ff ''' 'l'f - - - - - - - - ----- - - - - - - - - Soace-6ased Systel1' s Trends Space-Based Systems Trends ll ' l The spare systems of 2020 will he llllll'h more ipablc a11c l nwre widely u d than the cun-cnt span systems Almosl 20 Yt'ars ago fewer than a dozen rnuntrics had national ncllite wstem'i Todav 2 countri have them and by 201 S ncarl 40 wuntrics will have their ow1t atellitcs lnrematinnal on orti l will have au increasing mlc in space t Xplnilalinn and dcvdoping spat systems By 020 1m1rc 1han 1 dozen rnmmcrch1l entities rnukl provide both launL'h and atcllitc servic6 Such activity will drnmatkally i11crt 1sc the quanLily and 4uality of space services cspcLially for global mohih satellite communil ations and space-h i d imagcryavailatilc to anv l'OLmfrv on a l Ollllllen i tl ha i The appli-LaUnn ol these - er 'iC S has 1hc potcnri il lO ' Stly c 'Jlhanc c the military ci1pabilitie ot many nations Already under dcvcll1pme111 arc priv 11c l tum h 1 apabilith s such is the Sea Launl'h Project th il 'ill use -i moJilied mobik oil rig to i onuuct laund1cs from the South Padtk Ocean Con ortia ill plac I imagery md gt o -opatial dat 1 platforms in sp ict' a well as 1 wide ssoru11e111 or communi- timdinc and rcstilution nf com1111 rcial satellite imagery may not be as militarily useful a naiional prognun thl num r of tcllitcs in orhit an l the 4uality llld quantity llf imagc ory provid d will illl reasto dramatically Currently there arc about 1 Xl commen ial l 'Olllmunic ations aldlite'i in orhit Hy 1005 thi number could eao ilv tic wdl ov r 1 000 This rnpi l al 'Cl s - of informa1io11 lhmugh pac c will change not only how Wt' live but al o 'ill l'hange hnw we l nllui t war Thi ' largt ' im rca c in 1 a1 1litc i 1 result of lh advent of mulliplc commercial cmun s for mall 'Crsatiie L ornnumic o1tion s ldlitc Thi proliforation 11f sui h saleltite c11mmun1c atio11 sel' ice' v ill ha c JrJm i1ic impa1 t l n lht' communic ation ard1itecmrtos of many cli H loping nation' l ations platforn1' While lhc - - - --- --- E6REl U The Seo Launch Program is one of several prhlate launch enttKpri58S un H developm nt Norweg cm Russ on Ulcrainlon and U S lfrms pulled togeltler to form fhls consorlio which has entered the Jesting phase of thft program anli may 'i t niticantl ' enhance the tactil' al comman l and rnntrol tapatiililic nf fordgn mili1 1ry unit u 'oin them fnl rcascd foreign military 'PoICC apabil- ities will crndc thi rdativc militarv ad 'antagcs rhc llnit d S1 1tcs t'n ior in' udlite rt'Lonnai - Sil llCt' communications navi ''o1tillll a11d ntht r pal c-ba ed capabilit o Hll ot ' 'e r l'k U S will rcmain tht' dnminant Sf' lL'C powr r thrc1ugh llll th f1moca 'I perk1d Ru ia almost rtaintv ill r main the '1l11d 1mi t capabk ' pace p Wt'r Juring thifi time Europe China and possibly lndiil ind Japan will all vie for th n xl po' ition b 1 1 4 c 1 4 d '- --- ---- -- J will til abh to di rupt dcleat m de rade the mh ions of some U S attol lite ' thmugh j muning ----- - FUTURETHR AT 1999-2020 equipment ________ 123 V Defc nse Systems Sc1 - ncc ond Technology - --------- - - - - -' ---------- ------------------------------ Space-Based Sysfems TtendS _Cl With im re-tising human presen1 e in spa c owr the decades lo come spa1 e weather will he of greater concern for operations in p 'ce Platfom1s will he SU ceptible to d gradation and limited damage from cosmie sand-siJ' l' particle and solar wind The level of dependency 1- y national defenses on these spa e ba- e I systems will dictate the level of l ncem The issue nf space debris especially wiLh the huge increase of sacellites in orbit at ri k of colli- sion _ will also be of greater concern U I Between 003 and 2005 the lnlcrnati1 nal Space SLntion SS should achievl ' full operational readine s - I00 cars atkr the Wright brothers fir o 1 tlighc This expm1i led human pri sen e will further broaden our security interests in pace_ fore oing ISS participation China prnbahly wiJJ be operating both a small spa1 e station and a supportin pu e plane b ' 2015 In light of thl trends projected through hl 020 consider ition will have to bl gi 'en to tbc dec1 1ration of ccurity responsibilities in this eventual area of rc ponsibility for mr armed forces CU gusaiOn Proton Lift olf Wifh SS Control Module ground scatil1n 1ttack Cllrk calml 'nt md Jei -cption infnmialion operntion 10 direct-a em ami- atelJile weapon and din cted-encrgy weapon' By 20 0 the number or countril s with some capability to int1 rferc -ith atellite operation almosl r rtuinly will inc rea e Don't fell me man doesn't belong out there Man belongs wherever he wants to go - and he'll do plenty well when he gets there - Werner von Braun U Conceptual drawing of the International Space Station ----------------- ______________________________________ _ __ 124 FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 UNCLASSIFIED 'i'HMW''f'''l'Ht Science And Technology Trends The dominant trend in both military and civilian technolob'Y in the next two decades -will be the application of automation and information prOl C ing technology 10 every aspect of professional and personal life In lhe military arena thii will increase the speed precision range and efficiency of every action from targeting to maneuver lo logistics Even mid-ranked militanes will be able to u e ommercial off-the-shelf technology to oper- ite more sophisticated command and control networks while advanced militaries will conne t inforrnation nctworki to every weapon and platfom1 to achieve highly-imegrnted network-centric warfare U U At the culling edge weapons bawd on new physical principles may be available by the second decade or 1he new century The include electrodynamic weapon thermobark explosives radio frequem y weapons and effective ballistic mi ile defonse syst ms U TmpJementi ltion of wry advanced weaptlns sy tcms and weapons platforms will proceed at a slower pace primarily due tll the fact thal gt tially defonsc pending and military R D remain below their 1980s levels HoWl oer technulot icaJly a lvanced conventional sys tt 'ms develnped jn the I9'XJs witl proliferate gradually The 'e s 'stems will con - ist primarily of fifth generation llghtc r aircraft spacc-ba ed r connais- unce - ystem' stealthy crui e m1s ilei armored vehicle with actiw detensive sy -tems and anilkry raJar syM ins capable of rapid counter-oottel'y re ponses U Barring a rec umption of hosrik relations among major t 'COn llnic power it is UNClASSIFIED unlikely that any nation will invest in the rapid modemilation and fielding of large numbers of lhese very advanced sy tems but selected limit d upgrade will occur The greatest surprise we may encounter is the fielding of a very limited high technology capability by an opponent that we did not anticipate U Key technological innovations with potential military application include new bio-mechanical manufacturing pmcc sses U ing the tools ot' bioengineering to mass produce molecular scale mechanical systems at low 1 -ost By the second decade of the next century radically different tools for military conflict will gin 10 develop from the merger of applied biotechnlilogy miniaturizalion of efC 'tro-chernical and el tro-mechankal syst ms and the ubiquitous application of infonnation te1 hnolog y Possible applications Any sufllciently include o Tailored oiological aH enL'i disi eminateu widely but activated ooly in very itk cin '11111stances to uchieve d ired non-lethal limi dl elfl CL on pe1 onnel or mah riel advanced technology is Indistinguishable from magic - Arthur C Clarke U Micro ct mical analysis lob In a pea pod acoustic seNOt vapor concenlratot and compact dlSC analyzer FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 125 V Defense Systems Science and Techno logy o Sys1cms 1ha1 u or mimi h10Jogicd o Miniature robolil tlc k I - - c11S1 11 y capons or bofh-with ennugh i omputing power on hoard Ln cnsl ' procc scs to l 'nc rak pc 1wr or 1pholosynthlo -b ou lcn 'sin ' tri phosphate an ydlol thr 'ir nviroit1tll'lll i ommuni1 atl' an l rccr oiH in 1ruc1ions illld rr 'ad 11 1 unc pc ll d tlc 'Cllipmr 'nl r ' pond 111 In r- r Enhanced Threat Conditions o Nuclearlzotion and chemlcal blologleal weaponlzation o PrecisiOn munitions o Conventional weapons of mass destruction o Nonlethal weapons o lnformaHon technology and cybernetic war1are 1 ' o camouflage cover concealment control denial and deception t11 move and cl1mmu11irntc and scn - r ' the L'nvinmmcnl ll l Thl' availability uf adv inct od systt m on lhr ' r nmmc rdal markcl coostitulc - o1 v 1s1 shift from the Cold War era i t that time 'l' hdi 't'd uur oppl'llCnt 10 tk 1pr ratinnally l'Om tcnt l' wch ' 1 vc - o thi o 1d 'alltt1gl' went hi the sLtk wilh supcrior tcdmolog ' anc I forn trnt turc Jn th orn ing c Jc adc opp 111ton1 may he ahk lo oh1t1in almo't omy l'Ulling educ Lcr hn11log ur Crvic in lhr ' op m marl- d Thl ad 'anla c thlorcforc will g n lu thL - it k that is more compL'll'lll in l'lllyiug that h chnolo 111 h nns of ul' ani1 a1ion d Kll'inc tactiL s lra111ing and logisliL 1l supp11rl to l' 1lL'ra1c supLorior l'Prl'C 011 the h i11kfil l I CC4D2 o lkllllant sensors o Technoterrorlsm fechnologyoided espionage o Micro Nano Technologies U Carbon Nanotubes U llobotic Surrogate FUTURE THRf AT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED -- - - - --- - -- - --- - - --- - - -- --'j 'Hf'lid'i'@f-' '111 1 1 Global Tecr nology CompOtil 'flS Global Technology Comparisons 9ESRET t ' BilllJd klr n1 splal' e '- - _ o_ o Siiicon oMetalCu oWlngDos ColdSecH i o Leads in 47 of 9J Subsect o At Parity in 26 o Fly-By-Wire Controls o H M Space Boosters o High-Speed MAGI EV o Ceramic Matrix Comp0sites UNCLASSIFIED - o------- - oo- o - -- ou -- - _ _ e -The lJ S and Nine Critical Technology Areas - -- - -- -- - - o Se miconductors o Aircraft o Space o Telccommunicalions o Advanced Ground Traospon o Advanced Materials Minister Milton Wright father to Orvllle and Wilbur September 190J transfer developing a ymmetric and asynchronous means to count r led1oolo ka1Jy 'uperior forct s and developing niche capabilitie - d signcd lo '-' lUlltcr specifk l chuological 'omponelll nf C S aml allied forces L -1e_c _no -g_y_ _ __ - -- - -- - - - - - -- - -- - SE SAD ''Let me assure you you wiH not ses people tly io oven omc this deficiency hy a'- tive y pursuing oppottunitit '' for t 'chnolugy o Advanced Manufacturing - - allies m' in a 'ery favoruble pos1t1on in term of advancl d tel hnology kvdopmcnL a facll r that will cominuc to impact mililary developments The graphic to the let'l dtopil'l' 9 l'rilicill kochnology arcus Potential adv rsarics rc1 ognii'e their general kchnologic1tl disadvamage in most of these area and wi II seek 10 o Compukrs I ii - - J - - - - -- - - --- FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 127 z wn Ari _ ou cant say civi izaiwn s t uu advaflt Ce f J 1 in every war l uy L z z you in '1 a new way n Will R oge s i I ' ' ' J ' I i i i oj I I ' I I I I I I I I I 11t l ------ - - --------- - - - - - ----------- ----- VI Future Warfare Overview in Although the fundamental purpoN' of warfare is unlikely lo change in the decades ahcc1d the t onducf of war will be far more t-ompll' than it is todU - Many armed fortl'S will oper ate predominately ith late 20th l'enlur armaments but with a smatterin of technolu kall ' ad' 4111c ed weapons and platforms This condition will present si nitkant challenJ es for lhe military which will operate a ainst a wide uriety of weapons across the entire spectrum of conHil1 Limited cum entional warfan remainr likely at the l'l'Aional lei cl hul eu n thrre the rapid urbanilalion of much of' the developing world will create a new d vnamk with whkh ll S forl'es mu' 'it contend l'he dynamks of futul'e arfarc will include the dttisions 1 1nd ac1ions uf technkal mana er 'I as well as warriors e1 nd pnlitical leaders who use the technoh v Future war will irn-oh e indh iduals roups and stalt'S with unique capabililit's to pursue tht ir strale k ouls and interests There is only one principle of war r s and that Is this Hit your enemy as hard as you can as fast as you can where it hurls him the most while he's ll' Ne applications of warfare will complicate this turbid siluottion The lt-ssons of not looking Operation 1n SERT STOR 1 and subsequent operations in Southeast Em u hnn - Sandhurst RSM not been lost on our udnrsaries who in the futurit will bc far less likely to arra ' com ention41I forces ur fixed unprott'C'led tar ds a ainst the l nited Stales Instead these adl'ersaries will choose to cmplo ' as mmetric and asynrhromms forms of warfare a ainst the ES and our allies Terrorism weapons of mass destruction information operations and infrastructure warfare are just Sf lne of the more prominent examples of asymmetric forms of aUack The potential for anon mit in a'i mmetric warfare l'urther complicates the problem for in most instam es 11 deJlrtt of time is required to establish a 1- erpctralor s identit forcin the LS into an inc reasingly asynchronous condition in t rm'J of a response The more as nchronous tht response the harder it becomes for the r s to make a stron case in the e es of world opinion thus jeopardizin 'iclor in the baltle for the obS4 nin publicos perception To Cadet Wavell Fl The combination of new and traditional applkations of warfare as well as the technolo ical redefinition of the notions of speed and tempo space time technofime - where things happen much fa lcr lhan in the past and distance are forciniz a ntdkal change in our doctrinal cum ept of oobat11espace The result will be a non linear and highl ' interasctive em ironment in whkh our adnrsaries although nominall weaker thlln the L S oo will attempt lo gain circumstantial advantages l'nderstanding this new dynamic of war is thus critical to understanding the futon threat - - - - - --- - - - - - -- UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 129 VI Future Warfare Battlespace UNCLASSIFIED i r lff I U The 1 kK lrin 1I rnncept and the reality of baulcspacc has and is changing Space area Linu and l listance have laken on difforcnt value- bt -caUSt' of lhc natnrc ol weapons and the kmpo of mo lcrn mililary opcrattoni The pcrvu- iw nature of the elcctrrnna nctic environment the use of exoalmosphcric space and tht undersea inner cnvfronl' in operational wmfarc and the evolution of cyhcrspace as an ekm nt of 1he cn 'ironmcnl and a- a dimension in whkh to cngagi in contlkt have all contribult d lo this change ll lJ S capahilltit s whcu jmtapo -lcd against potential enemies sccm powerful indeed do111im1nl However cin um -tan- li 1lly our advet aries can tand wil11 m hi1 ve l'omc h o hnical or procl Jural capability ahoul which we mu t know and be abk lo ountt nu t in advance of it UM to preclude unnecessary casmthic threatening con lition o anJ ' urprii c Understanding the new dynamic of war is critical to understanding the future threat 130 FUTl JtH THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED - - - - -- - - - - - VI Future Warfare me A I ancJ Dynamics of Wor The Art and Dynamics of War U Thi foundations of war may not funda- that combine 1he mass md fircptJwcr of a mentally change but the functional con- late-20th i cntury fore with some morecepts and the nature of war nmstantly take advanc'-- ti systems and i on epts 011 ncv dimensions incrc asing in complexity as technology and g1x1political cir- 1Ul Future opposing for ' will hard ums1ancc s volvc Each passing pressed lo match our Jominant nrnneuvcr gen ration comrihut - to the C 'Olution of power projc tion ind preci ion ng igc 1rarfarc with advancements in l'-' hnolt gy 1111 111 capabilities Mo' t would prefor not wcapc ns Lactil'S and dot trinc These w engage in tradi1ion 1l conwntit'llill war'-- hangi -1' arc integral tu the crnlution of fare ith the V S But in actual combat 'itbaulcsp k 'C From sling shots in the Gaza uations the degree 10 whi h lhtosc force' to advanct 'd infantry weapons tiring b1 1th poo e 1 threa will dc nd on a numbi r of high cxplosi e and kinctk energy rounds factors Sul h fa tors indudl ' lhl ' cihillty to to war in cyherspace all must be on id- aosorb and apply k y J o century tcchered and undcrswod in order to dfccti eJy nologie which will tie l TUcial to llOlbin fon tion in rhe current and future conllict pcrfonmmce as well as to O 'en ome c Jefienvimnmt nt The tlynamii s of future wur- ciencics in trnining leadership doctrine f m -ill indudc chc dcdsions anti ai tions and logistics A o v - i1h any Omhat s eof technical managcrs as well as the war- nario the pedfi opcr ninnal-tactif al situriors an l pollti al leader' wh i u'c tcchnol- ation anti the gc o-pol iti 11 and natuml o y Future war ill involve imlh iduJb cn 'ironment will al o ht' ignihcant foc 111d groups who sel 'k simple surviv tl ai lors in ovemll performan c Wi ll as individuals group and state- with unique capahilit i s tt pursu their strat - War is a brain-spattering wlndpip11-slitffng art gic goals md inlcrt GBP -Lord Byron ti n to' twenty yL ars SlllllC nalinn' will lrih' to augmem their rnas 111d-111 111cuver fon -c truclure with elected highend capal ilities mcluding 'MD and nussik - sacdlite U I h-t r the nL'xl rcconnais ancc preci ion - 1rit c sy- tcm - global p osiliuning advaocC'll air anac k anJ 1ir dc fr-n c y - kms ani I Jdvam cJ cinli-o urface ship and undersea wa1fare capabil1tics It b likely chat in any lnrgc rcgi Jnal conftic t beyond OlCl t S fofl 'C i will face hyl irid ' mili1ary np1xmtonts U French soldiers test the prototype PAPOP Future Individual ArmamfJ11f muffl-weapon multl-ommunllion system UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 131 V Future W irfa re - - - - - - - - - - ---- - - - - Trre Art or d Dynamics ol War The leader must not permit himself to be paralyzed by this chronic obscurity He must be prepared to take prompt and decisive action in spite of the scarcity or total absence of reliable Information He must learn that in war the abnormal is normal and that uncertainty Is certain - General George C Marshall We can expect future warfare to be a subtle mix of forces and ambiguous conditions and circumstances where complex strands of activity weave through the fabric of the place and the time and the people and where nothing is simple or clear clarity of purpose for military activity may often be lost in the whole cloth of current events and future plans may only be dreams tU One of the key i ucs w mu t work to ovcn ome and to guard against i kochnology surprise where an OPIX'llent is able to develop acquire - and u a technology that may give them a circumstantial Jethan advantage which w did not antidpate lJmkr the nght cont litinns their quantitali C capabili1y comt-iined with ' ituational advantages-e g initiative li mit d ob_jec liv short line lf ommunication familictr tem1in time to tleploy and prcparl' combat position and the killful u e of asymntetri and a yndm nou approache - will present significant smn Slll 'C SS challen ei Lo U S mis- lJi The lymunic and Jiver - e global condi- tion the ncar-univerl al rccx1gnition of L s military superiority and the agl ilJ imerplay tween war and pea e threat am 1 response offense and defen c and military art ciencc and technology an fundame111 ally changing the nature of the lhrcm- Wt' face and the nmure of warfare itself It is nearly impossible ti l predi -1 precisely how these ra tor- will play out-in 1c111ts of the motives vuln rahilities c apabilitie timing locale and technological sophistic ilion of pedfic threat Nevertheless by recognizing 'ital l' S intcr t undcr 1anlhng why people leaders anll stat engage in wa11 are tnd admowledg ing 1he inkoraction between a po1 ntial nemy' goals apability intent md will it is pos ble to di em lh outlines lf a ne threat paradigm an d w a sc s emerging warfare tre nd and methods con nti mal UJ Pale1tln an youths use sHng shols against Israeli soldiers in the Gazo Strip 132 - -- ---- - - - - FUTURETHREAT1999-2020 - -- -- - ----- - - - - - - - UNCLASSIFIED noooooooHo ooo oo' o o o - - -ooooooo - o-oooo - - -oo o ooo-oo - - - - - - oooo-oo - - oooo- The Aff and Oynamics of WOI UNCLASSIFIED z ' ' Toward An Uncettain Future NEXUS engaged in warfare Thei e interwoven factors raken ac a whole are in tum atlecled by Ul The future conflict environment is rhe external environment and the c pecitk multi-dimensional and non-linear and context in which they are opernting to proexquisitely ambiguous There have always duce the fabric of a p llcntial conf1kt envibeen a ho t of factors influencing the spe- ronm nt In the decades ahead pace time cific nature of conflict Thmughom hi lory dii lance and other element of rhe dyn unic nat ional will geo-political and S icio-cul- of war will continue to be altered through tural factors political direction technology technological innovation thus changing 11K element of military power military forre relative importance of individual facton and and el onomic strength ha c all worked intensify in the oYerall nature of the conflict simultanc ously and interactively to atTect dynamic an l ultimately driving u toward how and when groups Qf people have an uncertain future UNClASSJFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 133 ---- ------- -- ---- - - --------- ----------- VI Future Warfare Cotegorres of Cori lief Categories of Conflict UNCLASSIFIED He who tries to be strong everywhere is strong nowhere -sun Tzu CONFLICT SPECTRUM l l Tik range of contingencies on the cha1t above con r - the generally ac c-pted spe trum of rnnflit' I in which the U S could become involved The iiemi- on the- kit of the 1 h ut are not only mno 1 likely to occur bul an a 'fr itics 'ontlict' ome form of chcmirnl or biologil al warfare b prohahle eneral y within the concext of very limited use and ery rl stricted kind of conllk1 A' ynchmnou and 1 lll metric warfare are anci1 '11t in origin ht lWt 't'r in which Wl arc c-n aged today in a variety or recently we have developed a much better ploce and way Th1 1 items on the far right doctrinal unckr tanding l f tht'ir impou t Dut of 1he pe lrum Ftmi e l and global nuclear to our militmy ' uperiority advep uie ar w u ar not nnly unlikely 10 oci ur hur if they likely to engage in asymmelric fonn of wardid O cur d1ey v oukl n1 dically aller the tare tnd th nalurto of asymmetric waifare gkhal rnnltition that 1he m-iditinnal consrructs oftcn dictates an asynchronous rl spnn For would no longl 'r apply In chc middle of the the for ccablc llllllr these conditions will 'hall is i brl Jk 1h u St Paratt s l kindi- or intluent -c the way in which th U S is chalc1 infli1 1 rhal ar mor likl ly and those that are lenged and cht' w 1y in which the U S le - likdy In11 rnalional tem'ri m an be responds Finally the Ktivilics listed in I hi cxpci tcd thmughout the peclmm of 1 onHkt lower-left hand c omer of the d1an repw cnt and will remain a rn iortrnnsnational political non rraditional employment of v s mi litary and sodct J probkm tiut primarily will inRu- forces Whetl1er or not one grecs philos0phj nce L onlli1 t ar th lmwr end of the c peccrum c ally with their inclu ion among military mi ' Similarly infra tructnre- infonn ition w ut m sion$ they arc a rc ilify and pt1lcnlially impai l und 1 hemicallhio n ical warfare tran cend all our ability to tidd L t_1ml'iat-ready ti lrc ' at any pa1ti1 ular nwment in tint t calegoric of i ontlkr c huwn In future 134 -------- ---- - - --- ---- --- --- - FUTURETHREAT1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED J ' l - ----- VI Future Worfore Categories ol Con k t INDUSTRIAL-AGE WARFARE Don't ignore the yesterdays of war In your study ccnturv incJustrial- of today and tomo ow ll l Wl'll into lht' nc C W uforc will 'iUrviw as llll of the main ch menls nf cnnllict ln lc 'J i11dus1rial a c rnililarics will ahound although om ill ha -c aJvam cJ niche r apabilitks and com pon nls Thl ma sing of r onwmiunal fore will occur on the bauldkk s ol future regional cnntlil ts but not ro thc Jcgf 'l that ha l ecurretl o w lht past 200 years I c s dL vdopcd 11 1tilm may 'l'Ck as mmtotric - 11hhoul h not ncccssarilY high-lcch - mc ins t cnuntcr thl domina111 to of lhl ir opponl lll and '-ill rd on morc tfforJ ilill 1111 ooms pmviJcd hy non traditional ITil'illls to d'-'ll r ddcnd or a1ta1 k 1 1' llcfenll a ainst ad crsarics This 1 01Tdo1tio11 e xisls in potential future hostilitito tween Iran an l lnu1 or lnJia and P 1lh1 111 over lhl' 1wxr S to 111 ycotr'- H1 yond OO l nuck 1r Llctcm nl c prnhahl will l'lay an incrl' 1 in o role fur thcsi inti ulhl'r ad r arial rd 1lion- hip LimilL'd 1 mph1 mcnt 11f srm11l C lllH'J1lit111 il fnrc 1 os will nt rnr wiTh mud1 gr 'atcr frClfllCtll'Y than i II nrnss cngagt menls Thc- c limited t'mploymem will lx mort indkaTiw tif lll t onflit t inn1lving 'tallos anll grnups th 1t m ldicicm in u lainmcnt and pl1wcr pn jl'1 'linn eap 1hili1ii s Th1 oy will L'll a t' in shtirkor duration contlicts wilh int- nnittcnl da htos inrnh-ing sm ll m1111ticrs pf round and air ilgl' iSSl'I B iUk' on tltc wulcr - ill conliOul' he primnrily limilcll to coas1af an l w riv ri111 ' cn ironmcnl h1r rtu furt' eloahk fuTurc gucrrilfa 1m tics and 1 rmrism will play a 111aj11r wk in limited 1 'Jlg igem nls l'T low ti Iranian armored unit near Afghan bordel UNCLASSIFIED - Douglas Southall FrHman iutl'nsily onllit ts 1nd in sun11 'iCU Hinns hit and run upcri ltion will hl' thl ' onf 't ilc llf play lict Cen warring fac tion Ai-r power and mi jlc will _ unstitulc n-itical slrikc t ap 1hili1ieo in nearly L'vcry imagin ahk cn111lk1 l t 1 lndu- 1ri il-agL' warfare will rcmain probkmaliL 'or lhl t S md j1 pa1mcr as liplom ll- or mili1ar - koaJi rs m rc4uircd It o inllorvl'nl ' thniugh pcal 'c lirok rin and cnforccmc111 S11111l' low lc d r 1 nllil'1o ill be I and haw hccn I o wlnokcd h1 'l'ill ' thcv may 1w1 he r o 1 ily iJdrc '-l d or lad sul i 1 i1 111 magnitude 111 w arrnnt intcrnatinnal oollc11tio11 Thi phcnnn11 onon arrir o- irh it 1 11 o ri k of 10 huild-up to conllil t c- l 'alati1111 t' pm1 ion In 1wi hhorinl stall' rd u l' ' llow' Jilli inl 'mal cllnl'ilk tk au i ' thc'c lyfll ' of u11 t 1hk 'cnvironmcnl - will lh1urish in 1hc nc t 10- ll vcars l s fnn t' will continue to Ix invoh J Ill o nnw dt'i f 'C in thi ofo n lor - 11 Ulu lnw k d -- - WI Jangcniu i form or i nnflkl - URBAN WARFARE 1l By 020 lightly tlll l c 1ha11 half of th ' OTld p11pula1in11 will li l in urhan or huilt -up region Ttw chalkngl 1 1 nci1 oty fn nl hU-_ C Sl'clle um 1n OllCS l lllH S not llll'rcly from the i ' lfll' ntration or pcopk hut r nher 1he inahilit lll' infm tru tun s to l1 111dk the l trgl' numhcrs In k'' Jewlopc l rcGBPion' in frka Latin o rnai 1 and A'ia new urhan dwdJer o1rrivc with Cw J j lk littlcel hu atit1n and without the hu ic c1 o11ornic wherewithal Iii survin and thus 1 nntributc fll the dv functiunal narurc- c f the urhan i cnt r This situ ation providi ' for a H'r i ompk 11 cn imnm nt for milit irv operatiun- Futun peratiun I tori ' FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 135 Cotsgnries OI Confiicl Q Can you tell me how battle works A We in my opinion baffle never works it never works according to dcpl 1yl d l 1 'ud1 an a- ill n eJ o be trainc I and cJ1 pt ricnccd tnd to 11mler 1aml rhc dynamics of the urban onstrud The e force- wi ll haw to function no1 nnly in and amund large stru1 tures bur in tho more difJicult surrounding of 'had s and 'ht111ty town The C Jtuns O m bcl omc epict'lltl'rs Of lTISlahilil Jiseot- C llllllgc r till al lill1t'S di t onh nr and c1mffa 1 1 11 very important thto futun liirt'e deployed II ' urhan or huilt-up area ii I ha l' to c 1pt' with a poll'ntial pci 111111 llf pktyl r 1h 1t inLludcs insurl -t'llls r fogi cs criminals g ' rnmcn- l il authoritil s ollld the Cllf t' citii' t nry itsl'lf The nuturc of the cnviwnll l'lll anJ thl dti1c11 s kn11 lcdgt' of 1ha1 cn ironmcnt will for everyone to cumplicotl plan The plan is only a common base tor changes f's know the plan so you can change easily But the modern batttefleld Is very fluid and you have to make your decisions very fast - and mostly not according to plan Q But at least everyone knows where you 're coming from A And where you're going more or less or 1 i t U S actiom t' Jll'l iall lntellit t'llC ' 111 i sties mtl X'ill'chocping llpl'ntli11n Pot o111ial 1o11 '-'t oi will be ll uii l and h u l lo jnglo out in rcasing the ri k of U Mumbo suburbs largl'I 111i- idc111ifo itio11 md n llatcritl Jamm t' Al l illlc ir1fomw1i11n sui h ' the hx a vi hid wt rc frl 'tllh nlly th l'l-all 'll hy the ti m 111ll i apitl ity of W th r mam ck 1ricll dfl 't'li C U I ' of '111 111 arm' and i111pnwiscd l llllllUil lclCl'llllllllUllil atio11 l ahlt 1 ' IC _ Wl'apons In urban -arforc lov -tl ch llHlh ill hl 'ital llo cn a illf hm c gi in km' will 11111 l 'a i ly hto ol ' tl with highlhtom a lai lil d itnl l p rh ip 1r 1lc il advan- 1cd1 o utinn The 111ajuri1y ol lhc 'upport1 1gc Durill 1' 9J 1 opl ra1iorh in tvl11 tllin infrastrul tur for rnililiU ' OJlt rnti1 111 i hu Somalia hnslilc wrgct indlllkd will havt' In he tran - prn1l 'd to the m oa of tnte c' old fat'lori'-'' 111d fonni r lioll I op 'ration lx-1 aU'll' of the hi _ ll pmhahilil tha1 the indig nou infra - tmdllrto v ill lw The Ll oiCl'uln '' of 11nn n1ional ruilitilry in ufficicrl or non l'Xbll'lll nr t'a 11 hl 11p in cquipnwnr will he limitcJ ind in r 0111c he t nnllil I In 'hon urh m w 1rfon wil I ca''-' - a liahility Thi l u - -i m founll lhi' In complil lll ' taclil al pro ctlun and logi tic be th 1 a- c i11 Chl 'choya 'hi rc ou 111urt 'd l tin idcr 1tk111s amt ta p1 r o11nd noommct'' UNCLASSIFIED rntl will prt Clll diflkull 1wli1kal md human prohll '111' fror us to nlw Tlll'r ' is a high pruhahihly tlrnt l J S f1ir 't s ill inae i singly h ' depl 1 cd to 111tw1 cnvironITk'lll - twcr the ncx1 - cvcral dci adl ' - Gen Dan Loner ASYMMETRIC AND Israel Defense Forces ASYNCHRONOUS WARFARE Commander Golan Heights 1913 U SOUth African Infantrymen deploy6 d in Lesotho's capital city of Maseru l U symmetric warfare is th urrcnl labl I for a prni ticc a 11ld ' warfare -- attack the enemy' Wl akne41s s perhaps ith uncxpc le l or innuvati c m an while avoidin hi str n ths ff dune wt ll a ymmctric allad an untoxpt'CH d and dillkul rnr 011- --- - - - - - - 136 FUTURE THREAT 1999 2020 09PIFIBENll tcl Colegories of Conflict Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does nof know what fo defend and he is skillful In defense whose opponent does not know what lo affack n - SunTzu t w1111onal n11h1ary forct'S IO t ounkr lkcau c of our do111inu111 mililary position lhl' l i S and our allies are likl'I 10 encounter asynunl tric - lral ' il ' wcak1 or adw1 -urics ath mpt to advunn thdr intcrc- i and avoilf a din cl 111ili1ary t'ngag enwnt on uur t rms Al the sumc time the l lnilcd Stalt''i tonjoy many asymmctrii ml 'anragt'' owr a polcntial npp1 1ntont notahly rapid i lt'1 'i - ion and l ' l'rntion cycks high 11pcr ui11n il 111tl 1 trntcgil muhilil m dsion Jl 'ep trike and - uperi11r hallk spa1 I l an n1 - t l ' 1 Sl kctcd Jl'l'c ns1 'c ol'oy1111m 1rk gi Denial and Deception the future that is their heritage ial ing alh anla c llf till' P C nf lim lo 1kvdup a i trah il 11ppor1u11il or lCl l'Xploil a future vulnl'ratiility I lum m or tcdmil al a ct 1rl slnilcgkally phtl'c I Y cll hdnn b 1 1 4 C S llil Onc d is i l'ilSl' 1 11 a rnmt'lril a'ynl hr 111ous warfare ll XllITl' l in 199 Egy1'1im1 ttorrorists i1tcmptc1f lo a - 1s i1rntc Egyptian Prt siJcm Jlosni Mubarak in AdJi haha Ethiopia I The warfare against Serbia in the battle over Kosovo will be the perfect reason for the Serbs to seek revenge in t l ' 1 A ynd1mnuu warfart' in oh1 o - a prl' sl'll'L'l1 d or dch1yccJ allad 1 11 om ad tor1 ar the al tnal l onfr1 111ratiu11 - oin1 otiml'' l' i r 1 hcl'orc In a litolaycd alladc olkn 111 tl I 1f n pri- 11 thl operation j 1 1rric l nu1 1tk-r m 'fender has lm wcd hi' uard m1m1h 11r str il indud ' denial and dcl pti1111 the use ul umkrgmund fo1 ilities mid lhto lhrc il of HC c ipons b 1 1 4 c l 1 I though fon ign ipahi itic' 1rc l X11L'l l d ll t'l fl lilllll In impnH l nv1 or till' IK' I Lil' till' 'l'Ol'k ' pan ind qualitatin o Ind of the i1111lro 'Cmc111s will 'UT alllon -- - b 1 J 1 4 c 1 ountrics Oi il 1 Thi - imprnveml 111 ill Jcplond llll forl 'i n 1 1 1ui1 tries u11dl'1 1anding uf U S strmcgy d l trin commun1- Their mi ssion was l lcar from the - tan to 1dtontify the Jx 1 hx ation fn1111 which to faun h a tt tTori t amhu h a aitN Prcoddcnt Muhim1k 1 mourag dnrin thc 1995 Organi1ation of Afri1 m1 Unity IOi l'I mi ting which was to takl' plal'l' in Addis Ahaha Similar a ynchronou' acli itics surround lhto bo111bi ng of the C S ham1cks in Daharan Saudi ArJhia in 1997 and thi ILJ98 cmha sy hombing - in T ullani 1 and Kenya ---- FUTURETHREATl999-2020 137 VI Future Wartare ib 1 1 4 iC b 1 1 4 C 1 4 e ations anJ 1 apahili1ic' a ailahili1y Pf fi11m11 ial rl' illllfi l'' a11d 1cd111il al cxpl ni c ai no o to forl 'i n a 1 11K c or cor D b 1 1 4 c Th ''l' L Ollnll'iL'' ill 1J1 n a 111g 1111L gr 11c auto111a1cd infonnalion sysl ' llh and 1hc nlcrnct inlu their D D plans Thl' l' pamling a 'aila ility 111d limdinc s of lhc lnlcrnc'l al 1 i will prnYidc state - ith an 1 flk icnl 111cdw11i' 'm ro di 1 tly target the pcn cption nf key 1 1 s and allied l i ilian 111d militm y dccisi inmakl 'rs and 10 hypa the i l111wnti1 111al iniclligcn c cydc '-- --r- -- - --' 1 li lii1 1 Russia will 1 0111imtl lo cmpha -i1 c prnlcdinn of it - t1 o1h gi1 nudtom fot'l'C' 'MD pro r 1111 pwlifcra1ion a ti ilil and alh u11 -d military pn il' ls Russia al o will ' 11ntinw to imprnvc ih fl ISL-Soviet infommtion l' llrily and rdatcd rnunn rmcasurc eontrob ao it l cnme' ust d to a rn1 b 1 1 4 c 1 4 e ac 11v111c' 111 upport uf lro14i Iranian Lioyan Pakistani and l11dim1 WMD pro_ rams will ontinuc to b 1 1 4 c 138 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 scc nmoreRto VI Future Warfare Catt 1gories of Conflict tit n itiona Korea will pnnn11 s cnntinu Jn particular Nonh to dcvdop D D mcJ- sures in support of its W JD pmgrn111 and IO rnmplicrne and dlogrottk U S and South Korean indkation Uld wamirig cJpabilitics Other wuntrir - ill incnoasingly rt oprc m D D dmllcngL's owr the nc t O yt m a will n1m slilh actor 11 rrori- 1 11rgani 1alillllS organized nimc and n in o-tr -11li l cr Underground Facilities I tb 1i- 1 4 UNCLASSIFIED BAGllDAI BUMKEll cc lm rL'asin ly rogue slate' _ -lll ll ---nl 111_C_f_ll_ l ll-P-ll of criJh al illll 'rl sl lO hi U S arc di gin dcl'P into muunrain' and helm thl surfan of lhl' l'ilrth 111 cum l al b 1 1 4 c and protect kc ' program' llarfo ularly WMD and mrs o ik dclin 1 as -wdl as lc ukr hip onmwnd t 11111rol omd cun1m11niL i1io11 Many cimnlrics alsu hnu lr ikgil' 111ili1 iry produdi1111 11x rn tion' in lunnch ll fi11 ilitic In addition 'OUlllric ul h as Rw i 1 China North Korc- 1 iml Cuha makc C lcnsi c usc of undt rpnund om plex cs rm 111n1gc md llf'k rolliolloll Jaundi itt s for - rnund 11 1 -al and air as ct - y - l' tl S 1 1 4 c EGRR HQFQAN FUTURE THREAT l999-2020 139 VI Future Warforo Categories of Conf ict Iraqi AsymmetfiC Planning bl 1 1 4 C lr tq ha l1hhht1 d it - L 29 1rainc1 tilo r 111 1111 1 unn1 rnnnl rernokl pilntl'tl chide I RPV uit- SfHf l Rui ia China ind 'orth Kor a 111d som other sl llcs Cuba Libya alre 1dy have wcll l l tahlishl'd licl'p und rground infr istmctun - Over thi nl xl two di cad - they will slowly arry 11111 ni 11 ' lllslruction - probably in surpoi1 of upgrnding or rl'plm inl urrem un1krgrnunLI fadlity infraslrm lurc '-'onsid o1 cd vulnl 'rnblc or outmoded and ab11 to upport ne follow-on high-rnlui mililal'y prngram such 1 WMD and hallisti1 mi silLoo _ g rm th 111' Llt 'l'P in Iran Syria Libya lndi i nul P iki tan an l the initiation 111' abk tor -- u1 1ck 11111 - ayl 'iOrti - Somt' lli Iraq' I 29 trai1k r ain rafl ha1 c h cn n1u1ppc u uh rr 1y lomb lhal could fv lilll'd ror lliolog1 al warfarL' 1B l Jeh1 t 1 lnw- 1l1itlHk I PV okkcit 'J oII thL' ouler limir of rad ir o 11uLI fl' k i- H ' Jf t lll ith111 1 in c 1 1 llw l ll Jt'l hdorL' hL in 1111t r epted Alkrnativdy lhl' nlllld lay duw11 in cffcdive HW a_ i n lr11rn hL ynnd the r tdar hrni1 on I 1 l ' fl i1 l l RPV 1 cre mti r PY Hi 'Nl'J ThL wnlinuing L't pltoJ JllJ tk' l o l un ll'rgn um I fai ilitil' lch o'u ii tJi i cHilJ pnoJu- a lcrhal doud 1of 13 igl nt 1hat ouk1 drill deep under round ta i Ii tic in lralJ currl 'ntly uni l nown Ill posses - 'ha Ilo ' undl r roun l fo'ililil'' i c1ipcctcd owr the ncl' t 1w11 tlct utlcs All these nmn ri ' h tw hurpl 'oning WM anJ hallisric rnissill program and th'-' c11111inuc 10 inn r pnratc dl'l'fl ur1dagrm111J fol'ililil'S into th sc inl'rastrm tllr'l'' As more l'110111ric - i nmm'-'n c or to p md NBC 'O ilpon pw gram - ind inis- ik c ipahililks thl' numhcr of umkrgnounJ fa ililics to con cal and 111 protect slr tll'gi as'i 'h j- likdy In row O L'r npcr H1111ul fofl e _ Nuclear Biological and Chemical Warfare U The lil clihooi I of a d1crui1 al or hi1 lngic 1I allack -and u1 i lcssl'r ell konl a nuclcm threat -- incr 1 cs with the changing n 1tur 11f V olffarl ' and 1hc rc ognition L'l t fc l-_j IJll o- 1hat isymml'lril rc ron s tu 1 onw11ti11n 1l mili1a1 dnmimnKc an 1d1i il' m oNtrahh ri sulls Arlual nr 1hn'cllc111 d USI ' of NBC w ufarl' plnl 't ' si nilicml sire' 011 holh 1roop morale ind 11 1lion 1l dc i iunnmking confiJcncc Protect ion rnt oasun againsl NJ K warforc 11tad' mal c ii diflicull lO 1rry m11 milirnry missitms hci ausc lhcy restrict 'isinn add weighr and tim and in rcaS1 ' strc'is Further logi'ltil burdens m-c added hy lhl' nl cd for kconlmllination cquiplllt'lll dcfloctiou gl'ar and srx cialitcd re1 oonnais 1t1 c devicl 's and whicks Trainin is a rm X'UniOI fll effective t'OIJllll'f NBC Hl'livity and t'l 'W nation have dfccti C training pmgn11n i INFORMATION OPERATIONS s inform ilion tl chnnlogy tx comes uhiquitnm in militat' ' and r ommcrcial applk ations effom to aum k or manipulate 1hc opponenfs information 1ys1cms and defrnJ one's 11wn systems against allilck 'ill hccome an increasingly important pa11 nf warfarl' Attack - will occur on lhl information in 1hc 'Y - tems a' wdl alt i l' CU Conlflcts In the fUfure are mol9 likely to involve o chemical or biological component _______ 140 ------ - - - - FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 _____ C '9gofies of Conllict on th m il ro-systcm and Lhc humcm u - cr of the systems Information will he subject to d 'stru iion and manipulation in order 10 achieve political c1 onomic and military objcctiws 'Ille ultimate targl't will be the dccisionmakC'r and planners who use the information and information sy 'otcm tl 11 The gk1bal infomtation infrasiructurc c Gll 1 will tk come a cc ntral fm wr in The fulurc security em ironmcnl As morn and more aspects ol' political economk and miliral ' lilC around th world are embedded in the Gii con erns ahnut the reliability priva'- y and safely of computer networks will continu to gmw In the Llnitt d Stales the GU is 'ollh 'ouming t national i11form 11inn infrastructure tNJll According to a recent study the bask' fuoclioning of rhc Unik tl Slates us a oovcrt'ign nation in lcnns of its ahilily 10 protect the liws and livdihoods of it l'itiz cns is at ri - k hccuu or our increased depcndcru c on 1h1 o cl ctronic information h chnologics that rnakl' ur the NIT Cl' Ovl r the next 1wo decades na1i1111s will int rcasingly cmpha i1e 10 olTcn- ivc and defon iw strnltogic docttinc ind sup purling measures resulting in a signilkanlly increased 10 threat lo lJ S intt rests from other state Managing ri ' k- a suciall'd with protecting thl' Gil from 10 auacks will incr 'a' lingly hccome a long-lcrn1 lohal is- uc U lnformalion Operations Environment hai kl r c mfl 'rcnl' and on mnputcr hulk 1in ho mh ou thl' lmcrnct Thl sc htll l or Ooh hm'l ' nt't llllll ' inl'rC lsingJy U O l'r - - - - - - - - - _ _ friemlly in the pm 1 5 ycHI' New means fo1 lfM' in '- rting rnalkiou soft- not mean unreal ware imo 1 ompu1t rs arc 1 1 1 0lllin m11rc widely known among hackl 'r and ollK rs - David G Chizum imerc tl 'd in attack in information Y' rems In idditi m Clll 'l' 'pljon lcl hn1llogy nl cllcd lo lll l' k thto c compuler net work allacks 111d 111alicious progr m1s is readily a 'ailatill ' on the 1111 onic t forcnvcr l'R aling i omputc r t hips emhcddi d with malidoo' cod ' rm hmgcr n 1 111ircs hillion-dollar microelcctrnnil 's fal rorics bl 1 1 4 cl sum ptiliuu'-IY ' ii'blli1 U S infnrmation - ysll llh ilf1 ' continually being attad ed in the form of probes and intrusion for inllmnation and vulnloraoilitic bv 1111km 1wn ourcc in 11 1 4 C I evcrnl I The lc1Torish groups __a1-1u n-a-t1_o_n_s_a_1_ c-1 nown to be dewlnping computer intn1 ion c 1pabilitics Hai kcr touls including c1 1mputcr virus and pussword crm ki g prognnw and the knowlcJg 0 to apply t hcm are widely available at '-- __ nalurc llf 1hc anad may 'ary depending on wht thtor the or merely au rnpting w for economil' gain Numerous advanced nariorr-' t Uc arc capahle of mounting - omc kvd of 10 attm k and their capahilitics will continue atlat kcr j ho lile teal U S lcdmolu ic' -- - ---FUTU E THREAT 1999 2020 141 VI Future Warfare when phy ical ac c h pus ihlc Othl'I' could rdy ln intl'rna1ional pnm and radio TV hn1 1dl'tLl I ml di i r o manipulate puhlic opinion in - upporl of i politkal ii 1ory who n a milirary ictnry i - not pto - - ibk Thl' Viecnam wm period Somalia md nhc r fl'L '111 conllic ts h tlC pnwiJl d ome ood l' ampk uf u ing media inll111 nl e ' manipulme puhlk opiniun or lfis' lr ln the m1lm 10 mihwrv facili 1ks will nut I ' the onl11 llln etc a11 i kl'li hv the a l 'er- ary mu 1 f 1hl 1wtional infr Sll'll 'lllfl' Iha diff 'l'lly Sllf'l' 11 1 ' lllilif I' operalions Illa ' I ' vuln ornhlt U Computers 019 increasingly important to managing complex systems and processes and will be increasingly subject to aHoclc b 1 14 c A1101h -1 ar a 10 he l0tl rmg ll t' 1 ll' rdiann coI linarn ial marlcts a111 I tlbllt111iun 1o11 inh mu1i1o11 h d11111logy h 11nrnni ' wr t I' nun ntly auraL't a gr 11 dc I 11f tak nt 1ml rc -rnm l aml l'connmi i1i tituri1111 p1 nd c1 1m sp11ruJini ly large amounh '' ddl lls1 1gain 11 sud1 allad ' gdl t llo i111 m1'il' Thl l dmolo y ha'c l'tllh'lllly pr valtont 640K ought to be enough for anybody Bil Gates r9s1 in lhl kch1111 info world wil I provide till' 111f11r111 11ion 1001 - tor 'ophi tic 1lell 10 o111 11 k - on lhl' GIL In the future China l111k1 Siu mpnl ' South Korloa lndom o - ia and tl tlav - ia will mnr than lik ly mid h t w prod 1crhm 111' lh -c i11for m 1tion 11101 Virlu illy 1 ol ry 11 1lion invnlvcd in c p11magc j M d ing tu l' ploil l'OlllpUfl f ll 'I Wlll k U 1 The 1111 l l 1 h111gcm11s iv1 1111l ' nf info1nwtion allai k m from 1Jio c with llh siL 1I an c1 s 10 frk111 lly inf11rmuti1t11 - sk'llh The Unikd S1 11L - gr all''il ulncrnhilitk l'l'rn iin Si'P41'1 Thl' t odmolopy rel1t1il'l ll for I llll' di ital ufll r highway nutinrn s lo ht 'l'lllllc in r i ' in gl ' c e1pahk m ailahlc aml affonfahk Morl 'tl CI' Ont ' -lntll'gi aspcl't of 'U h as p'yd1ol11gk 1l ll 'l r 11i ono and D D do not dC'pcnd l'll ulv uic d 1 hn llog din l tly Small hi h PO o red inicr11waw dcvic and dc1 1m11ic wal'f rrl' un1rn r ar1 cum m n ially i olilabk 111 ich i 1111 I and 011 o Trosl d in idcrs 1hk 111 1tli1l'k l'no111 witl in and gain t po1mkd ill'l 1's wi1hou1 a11th1 ont ation o f quifHl1L'nl m Jilico11i 1n tl11ri11g r ran port or srorn o Physical 11tad 1p 1in I h y n1111po l ncnl o or rmill' o Nc1w11rl p nt Lrnlion im luLlin 1hl'11 of d ila O 'rlinn of l'h 1hlin ' Pfrw u lll' l l'I 1llo11ifka tc'm of lal 1 to deccin or n1i m l i b 1 1 4 t l PW -ll'Ch c x p t l I ' nrny a 1 1 w Wil'l w destroy l' 1mmunic 1t1ll0' iiic11itil'' in local1tm -- T - --' FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 o Ekc1mn11 nuir k kgain I 'l'rtsms ommuni alions linJ s nr J y 111xlL'' SEOREltr ore1nt VI Future Warfare - ---- - --- - - - - - - - -- - - Cciego1ies of Confflcf o Sophi- ticatc l y r-ana ks including autollOllloUl- Sllftware lgcni logic bomhs ell' o Pcrl-cption managcn' k nt of cisiorunak- ers polii ' makm and the pupulafc Cybernetic Warfare 1UJ A new thrt lt is gwwin in impcinru1c md incitlem c In M fTit' ways it ars the trait of what might he alh -0 a form of --iechno-terrorism Cyht-r-tl'mlrism im-'l 1lws improper and threatening use of infonnation systl rns of all ty1'll s tt1 cau olTen i l' un l ldcnsh e rnnJitions that p 'L-clude the effective dlkient amt applied u ot' lho Ystems Important aspeds of 10 arc carrir 'd nut in a dimt ll i JO llf lhe l aul pact ci1Jled cyl l rspac ' in whi h the w apons are oKiV 'l 1rial ysu m s or 1pplil a1ions am I nmmunition is usually l k'Ctron' that ire dir cted in a hos1ile manner 1U1 ll1i fon111 f warfort ' will grow in impnrlallCl a new 111e1ho ls txoc11111c po ible IO'' crnlulion is mullifai c1erJ and di crse Fu11damt 111al hl 'im1ally all olko ih' or dden - in 10 i' th idl il that infonnati1m cm1 oc Oi x-1cd in 1ys lhat l an b tdv 1nt 1 euus to o111 acJvo ate llltl d ima ing lo an -tdwrsary Thi' type 1 J' w irfan dl fic' trnditi1111al mk ot 1i1111 anJ dist m c pt i tl md tempo and l-i OT - COfll Of oppo ing elelHCJllS INFRASTRUCTURE WARFARE A m1tion or ut'inationai lllily critical infrasLructure generally compri e i k - g- nilkanl component 1ekcnmmuni ations lianl ing and tin m e indu try water tn111spo1 a1ion ene y tdi tributi1111 a well a' storage emergency rvi e aml wntinuity of government Linkagt' ' and intenkpcmtenl'it' lln1mg many of the compnnenh i ould si - nih1 u1tl ' in -r a lh imp K'I of an atw1 k on a - ingle cnmp me11t Threats h critical mfra trucrurc tiuld induck th1o c fn Jll tatc - indeP' ndenl or statc- JX m r 'd group 111tcrnaliom1I and Jomesli 1 rrorish criminal demcnts compuh r hai kcr and insi1 kr'- cU UNCLASSIFIED il'J Advcr rr inftirnurion op nuinm in 1 ao 11me no l '11nt111 t'' ircumstanl'C - IOJ ' tie ntor ' l idl-lTi niin il than n11lit il ' a lvtor- sary Thi 1-irin s an ilddcd degrt--e pf l mpk' it tt o lhl' t S national rci-pl1lh1 ' to 'uch u1 C 'cnl ldtontit ing th o pt rpdrJ tt'r 1 f an 10 attad cuu be thfh ull otnd u ually an with it nuniLorou gal md pmcetlural c1mc J11 Thl fri cdom frl'lll IL-gal re pon ihilitit s j tonc fal tor that makes 10 iJt il tor rran natinnal tl'tors will ooo ' - o o o ooooooooooooooooo ooo - UNCLASSIFIED -- - Threat to critical Infrastructures - oooo ooo- - - ' ' - oo oo _ - - o '- ' ' -oo oo - - - - o o o' o ' ' oo - - - - o o o o o o o ' ' ' o o - - - FUTURE THREAl 1999 2020 143 - ' f - ' - o - t i 1 7 i - - -'' i L - ' I' _ - - - - ' - ' _i - _ r _ 1 ' ' t o - - Overview U The U S will remain the dominant lohal power for at least the next two decades but individual nations will pose circumstantial and condilional challen s lo ll S national Interests Despite an enduring strall gic nuclear weapon 'l threat pn-ied by Russia and China through at least 2010 the conventional threats facing the U S will be of' a dc reascd order of magnitude This near term strategk hiatus provides a breathing space in which the U S gains lime nt a reduced risk t 'Nn Russia and China contain v ast resources a1td challenge the U S for oppo site reasons China bt' 'ause or its military and economic ascent and Kus - ia bX1 1 4 c because oC its decline in the same two areas I kran lra 1 and North Kort a are also potenlial threats to the LS o primarily due to their inimical stance towards Che U S and their pursuit of wea p ons of mass destrudion and systems to deliver lhem at great distanc es In addition to lhe threat posed by indh idual na1ions a host of transnational lhreats some of the more prominent of -w hh 'h were outlined in Chapter Three will exac erbatc the global security en ironmenl This primer has focused on the main line of thought cssen Ually providing our best estimate Then are however attunath e outcomes possible for any region or drcum stance and some of fhose with significant globaf or regional ramifications are outlined in this section The one constant in this sea of change is that the underlying lurmoil and uncertainty in the security environmcnl will continue to necessitate the worldwide employment of U S fon es in low intenshy conflict em ironmf'1tts and nontraditional roles including peacekeepin opera lions h11manitarian assis tance and the eyacuation of' U S 11nd foreign citizens in rapidl r deteriorating internal U U S Marine guard$ humanlta1Jan aid supp1 e1 destined for vfctims of situations Hurricane G9orgos- I eeNABEt Ab' NOFORH ------------ -- ------------ --FtnURE THREAT 1999-2020 --- ---- 145 VII Outlook Key Chaffenge$ fo h t 5 Key Challenges to the U S o long as the current JlC litkiil leadership NATIONAL THREATS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - survives Sig uitic mt change is likely within 1 hl' nc i 1 live ' fl'ars wilh the- lvO I ase hcing 1m1jor thca1tor war bX1 1 4 c Iraq Despite being -onstraincd by sanctions mul oth r Jomestic scl'uritv i' lll S for thl' nc 1 1 ll w years lrall will rcnu1in 111ililarily capabk rL lalive to thr GCC Sn long as efl t th c sanction ' - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ J rcm iin in placi Iraq ill i Olllinui I' duwnsizto Ind con olidako ii rnililarv 1 st China China will l ontinul' to Jlriorili1 e enmornic 1v fonn and dcwlopmcnl hu1 lJN coalilion l'l' 1 h e and ap ihilitic ilnd military 1110dcrni1atio11 will pnll ' L'cd ac 1 h 1vc nnlv limill'd abilil lo urrn urc WMD steady hut radual 1l 11 e fl'M1lling in anm' the bo ml impmvL'llll'llfs from a ' low lx1sdim llnw wr f 'hina is 1 ti I ' Cl ytoars awa ' from lk'Wluping llmoat c lpabilitics largc- 1k 1 - ional North Kon oa Worscnill ctot 111omk and inrernal o t 1iri1 y si1uatinn1 will tc idily cro1 k Pynnl yang l ' onn-ntional 111ililary ca1 ahiliti s hut WMD inbsiks arlilkrv anti SOF strikl' topliorn -ill r nwiu viahil 14 FUlURE THREAJ 1999-2020 oIran Ecunomil' politil'al and so1 ialdcmog mphil' prohlcm will 1 ons1 r ii11 lrau conwntional military 1kwlopnwnt owr the 111 il two kt a k o hut expanding WfVlD missik a111i- hip and lt orruri 1 ap 1hili11c will crl atc 1sy111mc1ridunl onvcmi11nal thr -ah Iran is I h ng-ll'Htl rt gional pmhlcm fCR f 1 bXl 4 c - - - - - Vil Outlook TRANSNATIONAL THREATS ThL Cni1cd Stait s will fat o a v tri ty 1f 1r in lwti1mal danger' montra li1ional clm il' to U S i1m rl sh i 11m1i11g frurn a ari ty of mainly l'' Tragnvt ornn11 11lill nri - titl ' and i ondilion tht1t trnn- ccn11 inll ma1i1onal hordt'r- The llhhl importmll 11f thl''c ill lx' h rrnri m rnigr i1i11n a11d r1 fu Cl'' rL' - uur L' cardlics dru Jr iftkkint und 1nin na1iunal crime o 1l 1Ti rr iri 111 h ah1 _ d 1 1o11l1k1 and 1 y111n11 lril'las rndm111m11o wa1farl ill c 111 rillt11 ' olllr hi gL' I on oing pruhh nl' ynut Clnda y11dm1111111 Ix limi1t d 111 warf in will 11a1i11u - 1 1IL'S a' 11111 n111H l it U Bolivkm coca 6fadicotion efforts 1r111r ' ii I cakt iJ llltafc ol l11 h mc Nll ' 1 1 atf u J and cou111n th1 L nitcd St Ill'' -t rr n r lhL Ill' _ I 'CJI' i1t1p11rl tlll al h mn Ill tl d1n1olo y ill pnwiJc th1 o potential for many 111111cri 111 KllUir o 11r lk n-lup ' nifi anl 11id1c ap aliili1i ' hat v ill po' a l in u111 1a11ti 1ll i111'11 il 1 'd lhrc o 11 to U S hirt l'' The 1 d111t1looi i s 111e1 1 hkl '1 In p1 t cnl 'lldl h illl-11 1'' ill h nuckar f 1 holog1nil htPIo ' k 1I 111d dwm t ' 11 weapon ball i lt ' aud 1 Tui'l' 111i ik' dd o i c ' 11 om c p iall lir tkh n - '1anJ11ff capo 111' pa I ' -h 1'l 'd 'lt'lll' and au111111 n11H1s chkk and mu11i1u111 l ' J Thr1111 h t 11111i11ul d 11h om1 1 nwnh in i11li1nn lion lo'L hnoln and 1c lc1 11nu111111i t ation d1 cl11pin n Hi111b ruup and 111di idu il' 1 ill haw 111 improh'd 1111Jcr 'lamlinl ' l If t 11' di obal 1 1111d it iun Th 1 ll I ht l'll11ll' mon 1 p ni1a111 ol tht ir 1d11tin 1andard 111 Ii inf m l l ill dL'Jll tmi n111r o frP111 th ir k idcr Tl11' inliirn1a1inn-d1in n 1 onPmit d 'll'l'lllini m 1111ld h n a po it1 i11lh1l'l11 Y 1111 pnhticll and l ni111111i rdl f'lll l 'l' nrh or i ni g iti l' i 11th1L'llt L' 1111 11unttorvaili11 ' 1 -pc i- r thl' rt i11n 0 U Nepalese communists protesting the ruling regime U A self-employed Bangladeshi woman conducts bwiness via trer cell phone FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 147 - - - - - - - - - Allemati 'e F i tliS 2000--21 20 Alternative Futures 2000-2020 lJ The future securit nviron- Jt ribcJ incnt in this Prinll'r em ompas ' el'rn thto Ollti omcs lhat most likdy given our currtont kn lwk'tl c of economic l oncli- lion _ l 'Chnoloe ' trcn l' 't anJ the natiomil prioriti and threat per- b l1 1 4 C ceptions of the major uid rc ilmal powt r- Fon o1 a 1ing i' a notoriously im1l' urate hu inc ' ho 'ever am l somi ' trcnJs l ould pru lm c jgniticantly diffcn nt outcome' Than th ls alrcaJy UL'Jlil'h d rl'J Strong hostile China After great cl onomk - 111 l ' and inaeasing rcgion 1I inlluem e hina remains disillusioned l ly perl eivcJ U S upro ition and conl 1inment and hold' i collcl tivc chip nn their shoulder view Howe 'cr slll'h L'C momk slrl ngth is possibk only after a Jon J lCrioJ of inttornatiom1l coopcnttion and outsi le invcstmcnl Thu a o trnng hostile Chim1 is only possihlc in the lath r part of the for c ast rind l l 1 Russian economic political collapse Russia faihm to oJll ' wi1h the ongoing e1 onomi' and political crisis rc ulh in a 1cady tk rcaSt ' of Cl'ntral control 1wer the r gions particularly th hint rland Most of 1hc rt gional rukrs tn authoril irian 1s well IS c trcmch na1ionali 1i1 They ilrL' x ni 1phohi and h 1 1ik to the West The rcmainio n s1igc uf ii central gowmmcnt 1 ontinuc fmill ' crrons lo l onlrol fL''cmn cs Mm I wo1Tbonw j lhto 1nt 1l loss nf contrnl or 1h military ' ' 'urity fon l' and dcfcns industries and rrulikroititlll or WMD anll l ritk 1l 1cd111olog ic _ tl Strong hostile Russia Tnwanl th1 milk lie of lhl' forwa r 1 ri 1' I UC1 cssfol eco 110111il' rl'funn pnl111n1c- th rc urgcnl' ' r1f na1ion 1l pmwr Russia lin mccs the rcgcocrnlion of ii mililary ' tpahilitics and pushes new R O r' lthough it will nllt t lllrn tt1 su rpo-wcr lat us in his tim fr tllll' lls ia i1' yuite c 1pablL' of re ional power projection At the U S Embassy in Bel Ing Ct1inese protesr the accidental bombing ol the Chlness embany In Belgrade b 1 1 4 cl - - 148 ------------- - - - - - - - - --- FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 C9t4Fl8Efrffl 'c l -NeFe1m VII Outlook b 1 1 4 c tu' Strong coherent Europe EunlJlCan ci onomic inwgration linally succeed - in fosll ring greater politil al cohc - ion A '-'CtHral Europcan g o 'crnmcnt is ahlc to develop and impll'lllCnt 1 robust Europc m Sc'--ority and Dt ofrnsc Jdcmi1y Europe i' k ' dcpcndenl on U S lcmk rship - though not ho till' 10 the U S - and j more itldcpcndcnt in ils actiom throughout the world 1C 1m 1 Intro-European conflict Thl 50 lo 70 year 11f pt'it C '-'mis hclwCl'n m tjm Europt 'all powtor - Major Jis 1 1-ce111t ms owr foiled t'conrnnk intq mtion the Hal J 111s the cg can or oThcr friction points t ' - ult in major poli1kaf 111ilitary tensions Thl'rl' is ii hrcukch1wn of conscn us un sCl'Urill l'' i 1ive 11n1i malist agcuc Ja sur I md upt 11 l'1 11110111ic i ompct it i1111 among EumJll an power incri -asl s oK curtlingly tU oIncreased power of hostile non state actors Criminal or 1e1rnris1 org 111ia major illl'l 'a in 'lltl' lhrnu h lhl ill tjUlsition of l 'S llffCC' aml i Ollgrucm dm'-orgcr of 1 oli1kal l onmlr 'rl ial an I criminal llW i'-'lllt'lll Thc r ' umups lmve g1call r icn 10 high twhn 1logy and advalll - l wcari111 - and stratcgiL mliinnati ln tl'dmology fl1e y ill't' l i nlrally moti ' 1k'd hy hostilitv hl lhl' ll S 11r Wl '' l It l IC 'OlllC inffca ingly ditfa ult h1 tral e thdr l tmnCl' tions 11r di tingui'h them from kgilimatl' and 1100-kgitimalto m tivitic - and organil' ation 1ali 1os un r u tC' ifl Collapse of international structures Thl' IMF World lfank and liN arc t-rough1 duwn by a c11mhi11ation nf failures and inadequak hn ua ial uppmL Sklopticism inl r ' - ' due to their incptnl'' and the collcct1vl' approach Ill l'nmomidpoliti- calfsociaf prohlems foJ nur of fa hion 11 t Global recession leading to sig- nificant economic transformation Scvl'ral 1 cy state fail tn im1 1t 111cn1 ncccsS f ' fru lurnl reform- Tl'sulting in a d1 1in 69HFIBEHl'lftl P40F0RN U Serb poHceman aims at Kosovo Llberofion Army ttoops fCat liOll Of ClHll lili 'e ufl Clll' ' dto tlll I lions Thl G7 j unable 10 '- ope Jnd prn1ec- 1ionism ri s amuml thc loh o Enthusiasm decline fnr marl ct reform - uuJ U S kadl'rship fo'-' o greater prl 'ssurc N w an l shil'ling alliances dc vcl11p 1m then i - a global 'hil'I away from the Bn o11011 Woods- cm ccom11nil and linand il arrangements u 1 Strategic anti U S alliance T o m 1jor pO' 'l'rs 1Eurn Chim1 fop m Ru ia lm i 1 l 1oin 10 tht r 1t 1 oppns'-' untk'nninl' and Ountcr U S ll'adcr hip pmh'r and policit s around tht glolx or more Gentlemen I notice that thete are always three u J Emergence of onti-U S leader or courses of acfion Ideology Th p n Ci - d du111im111L t' of open to an enemy U S Wc tt rn idea - in 1i1111ion culture etc givi rise to a11 anti Aml'nnrn id ulogy that cvcmually en_joys v iilcSJlrl'C d uppurt as au dlcctivc rnunterp lint and that he usually takes the fourth -vonMolkte to U S dumi narwe and prm ide' a ' lrntc gi the Elder 'coincid ncl' of intt'rl St amoni di pamtc pn nl'l' individuab ro11 and t ill U J Removal of key U S allies One ur x 'cral kl pro-U S leau r- or l'C imt's foil either rhn ugh natural dc 1lh polil ical -011 Cl' iou l' 'LIP' or c onomic c 1llapsc l l S aci cs l l rcsoun c 111arke ts ha l'' oind other tratcgk fol ilitic'i in t h aff o tcd region is sevcrdy Urtaiki 1 or clirninah I Diplomatic dfons an hampered - h 11h rcginimlly and glohall in hto ah t'lll '- nf rlw compliHlll parl11cr FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 149 _ H--- o-000 0 0000H--- - - ooOOOOOOOOOOO--- --- ---- Over The Horizon U Just over the horiwn arc numerous cir- high tempo of operational activity A wide cumstancer and situations that could alter variety of oper- ittons uch as peacekeepour projections for the long-term One of ing peace enforcement countemarcotics the mo l import ant issues is the dismal out- noncombatant evacuation - hurnanilarian look for solutions to the underlying cau ' opemtions and routine twining and presof smaller scale i onting endcs - which ence operations will place U S and allied provides plenty of challeng e to forecasting fo al risk O r- lliom1l environmems the future Yet another is the millennial will range from relativcl ' henign to nonell'- --t whkh cmrie a low probability bul pennissive lo overtly ho'ltilc with a potentially collective high impac L The 1 -volulion and outcomr of these event U Although there h tr been an innea- ed effort by many nations to train and equip re 1uire dose scrutiny dedicmed forces for nontrnditional opernlion the burden for projoctitlll and MIMainability will fall on the Wc em coumries Declining defense budgets in many countrie will further narrow realbtic involvement to a i elect frw kd by the U S b 1 1 4 t U U S t01ce1 in lhe Persian Guu U Sierre Leone NEO OPERATIONS IN THE LOW INTENSITY ENVIRONMENT For the nl xt 5 1 0 10 'ear i ther will be nl' relief for U S fon es fmm th urrenL U --150 ---- - ----- -- - -- - - ---- - --- i QAET FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 Over rtie Horizon THE NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC OF THE MILLENNIUM UNCLASSIFIED - 'MILLENNIUM i -EXPEC'l'ATIONS'J I ooltoIU_I - 1 1-ILll'llllklf'I anival of the new millennium Dec 1999 --- Jan 200 I l i likc-ly lo be Jnt ft than _just another year p h ing instcall providing a L atalyst for lli1oturbanL cs in ei onomk social and political vcnm s the C lc-nt nf whil'h is ditlkult lo antidpal ' nle Y2K L'omputt 'r prohh rn is perhaps the most imme1 fo11 e 111anifr 1a1ion of lhi J riod The nctworkl'd cfkct of wicllospread nmpukr failures conl l have tremendous conscqu nccs for 1 h'-' deliwry of hasic scrviL cs especially in developing countri s th lt havt purchased ad vann d systems but do not maintain the expertise to con l'ct m mamtgc sm h problems The Y' K is uc is also u - dul in illustrating lhto multi-dimen ional charaC'lcr of the millennium dikmma for there om tho' c who pcrceiw whm arc css nlially compuler lJ The upcoming chip Msign limilatiom 1s having grealcr - ocietal or even religious ' ignit-kan1 c dditit Jlally 1hcrL is a millennial cxpl'l'talion and a fear of the unknown linked 10 OlllC rt ligious hl'li fs th ll attribute deeper meaning w otht orwise natural or random event' For exampk dcsrrui rivc weather p nomena an l n llurul dbastt ors that would hto seen imply as trngic cv nls at nny other lime witl he invested by some with apocalyptic implication These factors in onjunction with incidental events llld unimcndcd con- cqucnl-es may combine tu produce a net effect that cuuld rc' ult in locali1 l d villlencl Thb millennium angst i oulll hi' I up to two years gi 'en the di crepanl'ies over the ddinition of wh n the ni w millennium actually begins --------- There is ablolutely no substantive reason to withdraw large amounts of emit But we alt know that sometime$ human actioN are not baled on logic - Norman D'Amours National CrsdJI Union Administration Chairman --------- - - - - - -- - - -- - UNCLASSIFIED FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 151 VII Outlook Time Line 1999- 2020 b 1 1 4 e o o o o II lmph nh'nle1ti'ln El ccc ion Com1wtitio11 for Rc mrccs ' ' onOicl Orn1r International Space Station 10 Millen11ium l 152 T RT ht dUIP1J Angit FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 S EUR1Uf rime Un9 1999-2020 b 1 1 4 c Global 'rinditiun Ch rni -d h I ari 11 ttf 'hanr l'd l'ot nti 11 l'ohta 11 I th1111' 1 1 lri- t 1h1 h t1 J olk ircum tanc 'This time tlrw l 'ultura l hani l' Bt'j I U highlights Ullected events ptoJected over the next two decades It Is not meant l111t ial l lajor 'lianoh t hnol11 I ' l'lopmt'nt SEeRET o to be all inclusive o FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 II Military Events II Political Events II other 153 Por1detables Ponderables Those possibilities that one can imagine but about which there is no clear evidence or supporting data that would prove their existence However historical data often prove the possibility 154 FUTURE THREAT 1999-2020 UNCLASSIFIED VI I Outlook Flash Back Flashback What experience and h story teach is this - that nations and governments have never learn9d anything from h story 01 acted upon any lessons they might have drawn from if - Georg W F Hegel UNCLASSIFIED FutURE THREAT 1999 2020 155 VII Ourfoak The farm-e There is nothing worse than a sharp image of a fuzzy concept Ansel Adams There are no facts about the future Men s courses wr fareshadaw certain ends to which if persevered r n they must read But if the courses be departed from the ends will change Say it is thus with what you show me Charles Dickens A Christmas Cara FUIURE THRE AI 199992020 UNCLASSIFIED - Politicians may pretend that the soldier is in no different position than any other professional He is he serves under an unlimited liability and it is the unlimited liability that lends dignity to the military profession there's also the fact that military action is group action particularly in armies the success of armies depends to a very high degree on the coherence of the group and the coherence of the group depends on the degree of trust and confldence of its members in each other 11 It is simple enough to tell fortunes if a man dedicates himself to the idea that the future will inevitably be worse than the past and that time is a path leading nowhere but a place of deep and persistent threat - Charles Frazier Cold Mowttaln ------ - ------- SECRET NOFORN The unaulhonzed disclosure of dass1hed 1nbrmah011 may be prosecuted under 793 and Seci1on 798 Tiiie 18 use and IS punishable bi hne of not more than 510 000 1mpnsonment of not more than 1o years or both Secloon - - _ - ' - - - This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu