UN C LASS CHILE Govcmmettt Contingency Pjartz U i High-ranking government '- ' officials have reportedly drawn up contingency plans to sabotage the plebiscite on 6 October and to nullify the electoral process lf the government ls perceived as losing the referendum ' Close supporters of President Pinochet are said to have contingency plans to derail ihe plebiscit by encouraging and staging acts of violence They hope that such violence will elicit further reprisals by the radical opposition and begin a cycle of rioting and disorder The plans call for government security forces to intervene forcefully and citing damage to the electoral process and balloting faciTities to dedarc a state of mergency At that point the elections would be suspended declared invalid and postponed indehnitety z % i ll Pv g have stated that the miTitary will not tolerate signiTicsnt opposition violence or any activity recognized by the govcrnmcnt as unconttitutionaL They added that if the opposition were to challenge the government and engage in antigovernment activity the military would take eztreme forceful measures to contain such activity They also stated that the results should be more severe than they were in 1973 when President Allende was overthrown in a bloody coup ' i IFIE D ' Whether the commanders'of services represented contingency plans is unclear However their personal and institutional commitments to the constitutional process would lead them to resist Pinochet if he chooses to implement plans to derail the vote The President might ignore such protests for short-term gain if he were convinced that the army would fully back him However most anny ofgcers have ezpressed confidence in a government victory and the majority have indicat'ed that the military's proper reaction to a no' victory barring massive violence would be to abide by the constitutional framework Considering the existence of I 'exrraiegai conurig'enc'yr plans close supporters of Pinochet have apparently considered ignoring the negative repercussions of an aborted plebiscite to ensure his continuation in power Weighing the possible negative repercussions ihe Predidenrs close supporters have evidently opted for disrupting the plebiscite and making sure that Pinochet stays in office regardless of ' ' '4 Ig ' ' the cost DIADIM 277-213 as of 2205 EDT 3 Oct 88 kA i' i Nol responsive 6 '- COMMENT The contingency plans if implemented ould counter conventional logic since Pinochet would subvert the constitutional process that has thus far provided his legal basis for rule If the opposition reacts the way the government hopes it will and plays into its hands the probability of serious widespread bloodshed will increase considerably vehement enhanced international The plans vrould provoke condemnation that would be by the presence of several hundred observers In addition the security forces would probably face a radical left swelled by some former moderates who ould view tbe new political international situation moderation as radical and lacking prospects or future sccommodatiorL 4 Oct 88 6520 TAIBT4EYttotEol Channels the other military in the junta are aware of the for Defense Intelligence Summary Page 19 UNCLASSIFIED Johtty Dec assified with redactions by Secret IA This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu