1 T h e F u t u r e S ec u r i t y E n v i r o n m e n t 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 3 0 Chief of Force Development Chef du développement des FOrces A-FD-005-001 AF-001 27 January 2009 The Future Security Environment 2008-2030 Part 1 Current and Emerging Trends The Future Security Environment 2008-2030 PART 1 CURRENT AND EMERGING TRENDS Copyright © 2010 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada as represented by the Minister of National Defence Chief of Force Development National Defence Headquarters 101 Colonel By Drive Ottawa Ontario K1A 0K2 Produced for the Chief of Force Development by 17 Wing Winnipeg Publishing Office WPO30547 NDID # A-FD-005-001 AF-001 Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publication The future security environment 2008-2030 Part 1 Current and emerging trends Issued also in French under title L’environnement de la sécurité future 2008-2030 Partie 1 Tendances actuelles et émergentes Available also on the Internet Includes bibliographical references ISBN 978-1-100-14896-0 Cat no D4-8 1-2010E 1 Security International--Forecasting 2 World politics--21st century--Forecasting 3 National security--Canada--Forecasting 4 Geopolitics--Forecasting 5 Canada--Armed Forces--Planning 6 Canada--Military policy 7 Social prediction I Canada Chief of Force Development UA600 F87 2010 Printed in Canada 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 355’ 033005 C2010-980059-1 FOREWORD I am pleased to present The Future Security Environment 2008-2030 Part 1 Current and Emerging Trends FSE 1 for general reference by the Department of National Defence DND and the Canadian Forces CF The purpose of this document is to provide the Defence Institution with an authoritative analysis of current and emerging geopolitical socio-economic environmental technological and military trends that affect the future security environment This document will inform integrated CF Force Development and act as both a resource for CF Professional Development and other department needs This well-researched document reviewed by academia both within and outside of DND will also provide us with the means to collaborate with our national and international defence and security partners in planning and developing our future forces FSE 1 is the first of a series of three documents that examines future security issues from the present out to Horizon Three 20 years It seeks to anticipate not predict future conditions The other FSE documents Part 2 Future Shocks and Part 3 Alternate Futures will be promulgated within the year The need to comprehensively understand the future security environment is important for many reasons If we are to maintain a relevant and adaptive force in the challenging years ahead we must always be asking the vital questions “what is changing ” and just as importantly “what is not changing ” Failure to strike a balance between maintaining current capabilities and making investments for future emerging threats could result in activities that concentrate on planning for yesterday’s conflicts With this in mind the CF Force Development community at large will use FSE 1 as a driver for integrated capability development as a starting point for more specific security environment analysis and as a means to inform concept development for CF and operational domains I encourage all members of the Defence Team to use this document It will assist each member in maintaining a high level of awareness of current and emerging trends as well as improve their understanding of how these trends may affect our ability to remain strategically relevant operationally responsive and tactically decisive in the years to come S A Beare Major-General Chief of Force Development iii table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Introduction 9 Globalization 9 Purpose 10 Document Cycle 11 Document Outline 11 Assessment of Probability 12 Assumptions 15 Economic and social Trends 17 Introduction 17 Economic Trends 17 Causes of Instability 21 Demographics 30 Conclusion and Implications for DND CF 33 Environmental and Resource Trends 39 Introduction 39 Climate Change 40 Sources of Competition 43 Conclusion and Implications for DND CF 47 GeoPolitical Trends 51 Introduction 51 Multilateral Organizations 51 Existing and Emerging Hegemonic Powers 60 Regional Instabilities and Relationships 66 Failed and Fragile States 73 Conclusion and Implications for DND CF 74 v Science and Technology trends 81 Introduction 81 Nanotechnology 81 Information Computing Technology and Sensors 82 Biotechnology 83 “New” Energy Technologies 84 Cognitive Behavioural and Social Sciences 85 Risks of Future Advanced Technologies 86 Conclusion and Implications for DND CF 87 Military and Security Trends 91 Introduction 91 Non-State Actors 91 Asymmetric Warfare 93 Terrorism 94 Proliferation of Weapons 95 Military Use of Space 98 Conclusion and Implications for DND CF 99 Conclusions 103 Future Security and Operating Environment 103 Future DND CF Roles and Missions 104 The Changing Face of Canadian Public Opinion Working in a Complex Security Environment 105 Implications for DND CF 106 105 Appendix 1 Summary of Deductions 109 Appendix 2 Methodology 117 Appendix 3 Glossary 119 Appendix 4 Bibliography 125 vi chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Executive Summary Economic and Social Trends Unlike the quest for power supremacy and territory that often characterizes traditional state inter-relations economic and social drivers will not necessarily directly result in inter-state conflict although they may be secondary causes Instead negative trends in economics demographics and social well-being may generate tension and aggravate existing hostilities and problems in regions plagued by discontent disparity and desperation Such destabilizing factors could possibly result in humanitarian crises or create a need for stabilization and or reconstruction missions aimed at putting an end to instability and chaos and restoring an acceptable form of peace Globalization despite the plethora of opportunities it offers also poses numerous challenges and intensifies social and economic trends that are potential causes of instability Economic disparity over-population migration urbanization disease poverty and extremism can all have destabilizing effects globalization will ensure that these effects will be felt around the world Migration diasporas and urbanization in the developing world are of concern because the instability and conflict that these trends could trigger will not only garner global attention but will probably require international intervention at some point Urbanization without proper health and sanitary infrastructure will accelerate the spread of infectious disease and the ease of mass transit – of both trade and people – will only facilitate the spread of potential pandemics Because of the increasing interconnectivity of nations unrest triggered by unemployment economic collapse in specific regions and escalating conflict will now be felt all over the world Globalization has caused these local and regional events to resonate around the world like never before The DND CF will be competing with the private sector and other government departments for recruits from a dwindling labour pool Due to Canada’s aging population the number of Canadians over the age of 65 will exceed those under the age of 15 by the year 2016 Consequently the DND CF will have to devise innovative recruitment and retention strategies that will attract men and women from all ethnic sectors of Canadian society people who are interested in serving Canada in uniform and willing to accept the ethos of the profession of arms Operational tempo quality of life standards and complications arising from a person’s having multiple citizenships are some of challenges that will have to be resolved if the CF is to attract chief of force development 1 the future security environment 2008-2030 and retain personnel The Public Service will need to build capacity to deploy more civilians on international operations which will become the norm This will require a forward-looking review of legislation policies and compensation offerings Environmental and Resource Trends As climate change negatively affects the developing world – which is already suffering from economic hardship and social stresses – existing tensions and instabilities will be exacerbated Although competition for resources such as water and food is unlikely to result in state-on-state conflict internal or inter-regional disputes could possibly break out amongst people trying to secure these resources for their survival The quest for energy and mineral resources will certainly interest states who want the wealth and prestige that comes from controlling the supply as well as states searching to fulfill their markets’ demands While diplomacy and trade agreements will be the way most states satisfy their resource needs aggressive and irrational responses in the pursuit of self-interest cannot be dismissed Humanitarian missions are probable if large masses of population lack basic needs to the point of disaster and stabilization reconstruction missions could possibly be required if civil unrest and instability turn into actual conflict amongst already distressed peoples Climate change will worsen existing water and food shortages and thus increase the likelihood of regional instability resulting in humanitarian and economic crises Canada must also be prepared for the challenges that climate change will bring to the Arctic As the polar ice melts there will be an increase in northern security challenges As the Northwest Passage is open for longer periods of time there will be an increase in international traffic in Canada’s northern waterways The Canadian government will probably increasingly call upon CF assets to help with sovereignty patrols search and rescue operations resource protection and the monitoring of international military activities The expected decline in fossil fuel resources and the simultaneous rise in oil prices will necessitate that the DND CF find alternative means of power for its vehicles As fuel prices continue to rise the cost of training let alone conducting domestic or expeditionary operations will become prohibitive and consume an already stretched budget Research and development into alternative fuels will remain a priority The development of viable alternatives to fossil fuels would be revolutionary and could possibly decrease tensions if there are fewer nations competing for dwindling oil supplies Nevertheless the reduction in oil dependency would not be without negative consequences Supplier nations that do not take steps to diversify their 2 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends economies once wealthy because of oil exports could possibly experience economic depression and social instability if the demand for oil decreases Geopolitical Trends The growing interdependence of global finance and trade networks appears to have deterred much interstate conflict in order to avoid any disruption of trade routes or the flow of capital Because of globalization and the reduced occurrence of war amongst nation states confrontation with non-state actors has recently become the prevalent form of conflict and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future Nevertheless the possibility of state-on-state conflict will never be totally eliminated Multilateral organizations have been a prominent feature of international relations since the Second World War and have become increasingly common as nations form diverse new agreements and initiatives involving different partners The existing hegemonic superpower – the United States – will continue to dominate Nevertheless there are emerging powers whose economic growth and military expansion may eventually challenge the position of the United States especially in Asia and Africa The interstate relationships of the regions surrounding these larger powers need to be closely examined given that many of these areas are somewhat unstable and could possibly attract the attention of existing or emerging regional powers Failed and fragile states are also of concern because such areas of instability represent potential sources of humanitarian and stabilization crises as well as potential safe havens for terrorists involved in developing organizing and preparing for asymmetric attacks The themes of cooperation and conflict underlie the key geopolitical trends Cooperation will occur within the various multilateral organizations although their capacities for effective action will probably be limited by size and lack of consensus The alternative – ad hoc coalitions of like-minded states acting in common interest – will sometimes be the preferred method of putting together intervention forces Nurturing and establishing connections with international bodies will be critical in raising global awareness Canada and its allies must pay special attention to the actions and ambitions of countries and organizations with which Canada has not traditionally had close diplomatic ties Being cognizant of the plans and developments of these countries will be just as important as keeping abreast of allies’ policies and priorities Canada will maintain its relationship with the UN and with NATO and could possibly benefit from exploring new bilateral and multilateral partnerships that are in Canada’s interest thus Canada should try to nurture healthy relationships with chief of force development 3 the future security environment 2008-2030 like-minded nations from around the world Nevertheless Canada will certainly need to maintain close relations with its continental neighbour the United States Hence interoperability with the United States will be an important goal for the CF where possible and essential Because of shared continental responsibilities Canada and its neighbour have mutual security interests that must be addressed through effective cooperation that respects individual sovereignty Although asymmetric attacks currently pose the main security threat to the world the potential for state-on-state conflict cannot be dismissed National aspirations regional instabilities and the desire to challenge a balance of power that currently favours the United States all represent potential triggers for war among states Conflict is also likely to emerge in regions of instability in failed or fragile states or among states that feel a need to assert reassert state power at the expense of regional – if not world – peace Consequently the DND CF will need to be prepared to address the full-spectrum of conflict Science and Technology Trends A comprehensive scan of science and technology futures supports the supposition that automation customization and miniaturization will underpin many technological breakthroughs that contribute to future defence and security capabilities These include nanotechnology information systems computing and sensors networking technologies biotechnology new energy power technologies and cognitive behavioural and social sciences Innovation in these sectors will enable developments in artificial intelligence organic electronics mass production of nano-materials molecular imaging and personalized medicine access to space and programmable “intelligent” drugs Nevertheless the seemingly positive trends will possibly be offset by various negative ramifications of these science and technology breakthroughs – namely perverse applications of genetic engineering designer bio-weapons and other unanticipated effects arising from experimentation Certainly unethical actors have and will continue to take advantage of science and technology in the future Science and technology trends are characterized by innovation and rapid change There are also potentially serious consequences of these technologies being available commercially to both friend and foe alike Science and technology have historically contributed significantly to the development of defence-related capability and will continue to do so in the future In the past advances in science and technology have been driven to a large extent by massive investments by national governments in 4 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends their military programs Future advances in science and technology will continue the current trend of being driven by massive investments from private and multinational companies Given global accessibility to future science and technology any military advantage will belong to whomever is best able to acquire integrate and exploit new capabilities the fastest Traditional “have-not” nations and non-state actors could possibly gain significant influence and equal footing in certain capabilities with long-established military powers through the acquisition of commercially available technological developments The pursuit of low-tech solutions by adversaries could possibly offset the advantages of sophisticated advanced weaponry Also particularly challenging for traditional western militaries is the fact that asymmetric adversaries are not necessarily constrained by the same moral ethical or legal considerations It will be of primary importance therefore that DND CF be able to recognize the potential for new innovations to contribute to military capability – both their own capability and the capability of the adversary – and to address the problem of periodically updating their military capability with new science and technology in a relevant and effective manner Military and Security Trends To say that the future security environment of the post-Cold War period is more complex than previous eras is not to downplay the complicated nature of past wars and diplomatic relations Rather it is meant to illustrate the increased complexity of international relations and national survival in a world that no longer consists of two main blocs of states with good situational awareness of each other’s capabilities The security environment of today and tomorrow contains a plethora of potential threats adversaries and actors with divergent motivations not limited to traditional theories of international relations In addition to states with contrary philosophical and ideological outlooks including rogue states that regularly act outside the norms of international laws and protocols Canada and its allies will also be challenged by the activities of problematic non-state actors such as trans-national criminal organizations terrorist groups and violent religious extremists among others In modern warfare the adversary is more often likely to be a non-state group hidden amongst a larger population rather than a well-equipped traditional military Adversaries will be harder to identify their actions will be less conducive to anticipation or deterrence and they will probably use asymmetric tactics in lieu of risking a conventional head-on confrontation Asymmetric means will be the tactic of choice for those wanting to exploit state vulnerabilities and avoid conventional chief of force development 5 the future security environment 2008-2030 armed strength and the bounds of national and international law Proliferation of weapons amongst many state and non-state actors is also expected thus empowering an increasing number of potential adversaries Technology defines part of the future threat environment Technological developments can be disseminated among unfriendly states or groups thus posing a challenge to the capabilities of Canada and its allies Just as significant is the imaginative use of existing technology in ways not conceived by their original developers and for purposes inimical to Canadian goals Implications for DND CF Meeting the challenges of the complexity of the future security environment will require contributions from all instruments of national power achieving the desired effects will require the participation of and cooperation with allied defence teams other government departments the private sector and where applicable non-governmental organizations – this is commonly being referred to as the Comprehensive Approach among Canada’s allies At the institutional level an integrated vision will be required across a number of organizations this will imply the use of governance policy and legal mechanisms to enhance the synergies among cooperative entities that are working to resolve complex situations In order to achieve the benefits of a complementary team for complex problem solving there needs to be an enhanced trust mechanism that enables the sharing of resources and information in a more transparent and effective manner In order for this to be possible DND CF and its defence and security partners need to be adaptive to changing situations and find the means of creating a more networked focus in order to benefit from the strengths and capabilities of all potential contributors to the solution including non-governmental entities Hence DND CF should expect to continue working within the larger defence and security team participating with other government departments with allies in coalitions and alongside non-governmental organizations The mix of ever-present conventional threats and the ever-increasing number of asymmetric threats that are continuing to emerge will demand more than a military response Other government departments and non-governmental organizations must contribute to – and take the lead in – prevention intervention stabilization reconstruction and capacity-building in regions of instability The future security environment will offer both opportunities and challenges for military forces The difficulty not only of maintaining readiness to respond to 6 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends conventional threats but also of coping effectively with capable non-state actors operating in austere urban and littoral battlespaces will continue to strain conventional forces and call for new capabilities and new approaches In both domestic and expeditionary taskings the defence team of the future will need both conventional and unconventional capabilities The DND CF will also need to be able to respond to chemical biological radiological and nuclear CBRN or cyber attacks Whether at home or abroad intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities will remain essential in maintaining situational awareness in a world where sensing technology is becoming increasingly pervasive and universally available Communications will remain essential in ensuring command and control Given Canada’s extensive coastline and the fact that over three-quarters of the world’s population live in littoral areas the defence team of the future will need to be able to project maritime force Furthermore given Canada’s immensity and the vast distances that separate it from probable theatres of operations strategic lift and transport capabilities are essential Meeting the complex challenges of the future security environment will require an integrated adaptable and capable force that can work cooperatively with other government departments agencies and stakeholders in both domestic and international operations Therefore the complex future security environment described in the following chapters will demand a comprehensive integrated adaptive and networked focus in the application of government policy chief of force development 7 part 1 current and emerging trends INTRODUCTION Throughout its history the DND CF has been called upon to deploy both at home and overseas on varied and largely unpredictable missions that cover the full spectrum of operations The word “unpredictable” is key to any discussion about the future surprise factors such as strategic shocks changing demographics infectious diseases newly influential ideas or the rise to power of charismatic leaders can easily render predictions about what may happen thirty years from now irrelevant Even thinking ahead five years can be highly speculative Who in August 2001 could have predicted that Canada would be deeply involved in combat operations in Afghanistan today Nevertheless the fear of being wrong should not – and cannot – prevent people from studying trends in the future security environment so as to limit surprise and prepare for situations that might reasonably be foreseen or expected DND CF must not only be ready to respond to a wide range of contingencies today it must plan for the threats and challenges of tomorrow A thorough analysis of the future security environment is a necessary first step in this process It is not the purpose of this document to predict the future but rather to examine and project how trends might reasonably unfold out to 2030 and beyond and to help DND CF to be as prepared a possible to face the security threats that are most likely to emerge Globalization This analysis of the future security environment is situated within an all-encompassing trend Globalization Globalization is a process of increased connectivity and interdependence transcending social economic and political spheres To be sure globalization is not a new phenomenon however the current wave of globalization has achieved an unprecedented speed and scope of effect Rapid advances in telecommunication and transportation technologies have compressed traditional perceptions of time and space allowing interactions to occur virtually in real time and across cultural barriers This has had a profound impact on the day-to-day economic transactions and has greatly accelerated the integration of global markets There has been an erosion of conventional political boundaries that has further facilitated the flow of goods services capital people and – most importantly – ideas While such an integrated system has clear benefits it also brings into focus the degree of material and political disparity that exists both domestically and globally Furthermore the benefit accrued by Canadians in this integrated environment is somewhat offset by a diminished capacity to keep potential threats at a distance chief of force development 9 the future security environment 2008-2030 Facilitated by the mechanisms made available through globalization individual actors aggregates and states are able to “jump scale” of effect exerting influence beyond their previous reach For example individual actors are able to exercise an influence on a global scale often through networks that negate the need for geographic proximity and in the context of criminal activity avoid interdiction by state-based law enforcement institutions Such a trend has great implication for the security environment The degree to which non-state armed groups are able to recruit procure resources disseminate ideology network and even virtually train members is a case in point Not only are borders less of an impediment to mobilization but non-state actors at various scales are increasingly empowered to occupy political space previously reserved for the state Globalization is often characterized in terms of its economic and technological drivers It is important to note however that the relationship between drivers and effects is not necessarily linear rather there is a reticular or fractal quality to the relationship often with feedback loops While first and second order effects of trends are easily discerned due to the complexity of the system further effects are far more difficult to recognize especially when each trend is viewed in isolation In a globalized world local and regional shocks often resonate worldwide and alter the character of the security environment When conducting its analysis of the future security environment it is therefore instructive for DND CF to survey a variety of emerging trends in order to map possible points of convergence where shocks may occur Purpose The exploration of these trends suggests how key global issues could possibly affect Canada over the next twenty years and how the evolving security environment could possibly influence when and where the CF will be deployed – whether at home or abroad The people responsible for force development must then use this insight to maintain existing activities to plan for a long-term relevant force structure and to invest in a CF that is prepared for the threats and challenges that are expected to emerge within a time frame extending to 2030 and beyond This document The Future Security Environment 2008-2030 Current and Emerging Trends FSE highlights challenges that Canada and DND CF will probably face in the future It will be the responsibility of the Force Development community to identify capability needs and gaps and to propose specific solutions 10 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Document Cycle The program of analysis for the future security environment will not only include current and emerging trends out to the year 2030 Horizon Three but it will also analyze potential consequences of these trends through the consideration of future shocks and alternative futures The review of current and emerging trends aims to lay the ground-work for understanding the future by outlining and reflecting on geopolitical economic and social environmental and resource science and technology as well as military and security trends Analysis of future shocks and alternative futures will occur with the goals of elaborating on the consequences of emerging trends speculating on the impact of unforeseen shocks challenging common assumptions about the future’s shape and identifying vulnerabilities that DND CF will need to mitigate Work on future shocks will aim to identify possible shocks and analyze both their probability and impact on Canada and DND CF Analysis of alternative futures will present a selection of alternative future scenarios that could follow from trends or strategic shocks and will serve as an exercise to challenge conventional thinking to demonstrate that radical changes to the world as it is known are not impossible and to illustrate what impact trends and shocks could plausibly have on Canada and DND CF This document is the first FSE iteration published by DND CF It is anticipated that the FSE will be revised and re-issued on a regular cyclical basis in order to take into consideration changes in the future security environment and to update what the evolving and dynamic international situation means for DND CF However significant changes may demand more frequent re-issues or updates through special topic discussion papers Future versions of the FSE could possibly include a scorecard for assessing the deductions the implications for the force development process and the utility and accuracy of previously identified trends Document Outline The chapter on economic and social trends highlights foreseeable developments in economics demographics and social well-being The discussion of environmental and resource trends enumerates the challenges that are expected to arise as a consequence of resource scarcity competition for energy and minerals and climate change The chapter on geopolitical trends provides an overview of future multilateral players rising powers regional relationships unstable states and potential triggers for state-on-state conflict 1 The chapter on science and technology demonstrates that progress in nanotechnology biotechnology new energy and cognitive sciences chief of force development 11 the future security environment 2008-2030 will impact daily economic and security realities The final chapter on military and security trends looks at the proliferation of weapons and battlespaces the growing threat of modern asymmetric warfare and the emergence of new technologies that will be available to both state and non-state actors for use in both conventional and irregular warfare The concluding chapter discusses the implications for DND CF and the impact of operating with a comprehensive integrated adaptive and networked focus for the application of national intent in the future security and operating environment described in this document Assessment of Probability The terminology of probability used in the deductions and throughout this document has been carefully selected to help the reader determine which trends are most important and which are most likely to occur to have an impact on Canada and to require consideration and response by DND the CF This approach is similar to that taken by the United Kingdom’s DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 20072036 Terminology of Probability Will Circumstances are already moving in this direction and moving off this trajectory is not foreseeable Probably A change in circumstances could change the trend’s trajectory but this is not likely to happen Possibly This occurrence is foreseeable but a change in trends is not out of the question thus bringing about a different outcome Unlikely The outcome is deemed improbable as there is little or no evidence projecting its occurrence 12 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Notes 1 ADM Policy and Chief of Defence Intelligence’s purview is trends likely to happen up to ten years from now DFSA looks out beyond ten years This chapter does not purport to be an exhaustive study of geopolitical interactions since there are other organizations within DND tasked with assessing international relations and geopolitical developments Instead the inclusion of geopolitical trends here is meant to provide the reader with a situational background and to acknowledge that future security trends are also affected by regional and inter-regional threats chief of force development 13 part 1 current and emerging trends ASSUMPTIONS Canadian national values will not change any time soon Not only will Canada remain a democracy but Canadians and their government will continue to stand up for peace order and good government for human rights and freedoms respect for the dignity of all persons and for obedience to and support of lawful authority 1 This includes a commitment to justice a balance between individual and community rights a belief in equal opportunity and tolerance of diversity and the ideal of responsible and democratic government In Canadian democracy the principle of subordinating the military to civilian political authority and the principle of collective security for any international intervention are paramount 2 The Canadian Forces CF will continue to be relevant to the Canadian public the Canadian government and the allies of Canada Canadians will continue to want an institution that will protect Canadian interests and values and that will do so in a manner that is open responsive effective and based on high ethical standards The Government of Canada will continue to expect DND CF to provide coherent advice on military matters and defence policy and to be a national tool for achieving Canadian domestic continental and international defence and foreign policy objectives Allies will continue to want Canada to be a competent partner capable of making a meaningful contribution to combined operations while keeping pace with evolving military concepts doctrine and technology 3 The three roles assigned DND CF by the Canadian Government will remain unchanged Consequently DND CF can expect to continue protecting Canada Canadians and national sovereignty defending North America in cooperation with the United States and contributing to international peace and security through stabilization humanitarian and or reconstruction operations in regions of instability Although DND CF must be fully capable of protecting Canada and responding to domestic crises on its own in support of civilian first responders Canada will remain committed to multilateralism and consequently will rarely venture into international missions alone or outside of a coalition The United States will remain Canada’s most important military ally and trading partner hence it will continue to be in Canada’s interest to cooperate closely with the United States so long as national sovereignty is not sacrificed The occurrence of a strategic shock will cause the trajectory of a trend to deviate off its existing course The advent of a strategic shock – such as a major transformative technological breakthrough or a socio-political or military event – chief of force development 15 the future security environment 2008-2030 tends to disrupt patterns and often leads to fundamental changes in the world situation Once this occurs the trajectory of new trends may take a whole new direction The interaction of multiple trends can result in unpredictable and nonlinear trajectories and thus act as strategic shocks as well Figure 1 Time Horizons Thinking about the Future Slide from CDB Presentation 8 November 2007 Notes 1 Government of Canada Defence Ethics Program Introduction to Defence Ethics 2nd Edition Ottawa Department of National Defence Course Case Study Guide Handouts 10 March 2008 2 Department of National Defence Military HR Strategy 2020 Facing the People Challenges of the Future Ottawa ADM HR-Mil 2002 p 3 3 Department of National Defence Development of HR 2020 A Review of External Driving Factors DSHRC Research Report 2 2000 Ottawa Directorate of Strategic Human Resource Coordination December 2000 pp 32-3 16 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL TRENDS Introduction As populations grow economies must keep pace or standards of living will probably decline Owing to the broad diversity in the range of living standards no universally accepted benchmark exists for judging societies as stable fragile or failed The most comprehensive standard-of-living scale is tied to both the quality life and to the expectation that the current standard can be maintained and or raised However standards of living are relative from the perspective of both experience and expectation An awareness of the affluence of the developed world cannot help but increase expectations or the level of dissatisfaction in the developing world Unlike the quest for power supremacy and territory that defines traditional state inter-relations economic and social drivers will not necessarily result in inter-state conflict although they may represent secondary causes Rather negative trends in economics demographics and social well-being may serve as sources of tension and aggravate tensions and problems already present in areas where discontent disparity and desperation are rife These destabilizing effects could possibly result in humanitarian crises or the need for stabilization and or reconstruction missions to put an end to instability and chaos and restore an acceptable form of peace to the security environment Economic Trends Potential Economic Disparities Economic forecasting is notoriously difficult However barring a major shock and despite cyclical slowdowns and occasional disruptions the global economy will probably continue growing through to 2030 In its study of global prospects the World Bank’s “central scenario” anticipates that global economic output in 2030 will be USD $72 trillion up from USD$35 trillion in 2005 1 This economic growth will be driven by population growth improvements in productivity and greater integration of the global economy Although the world economy will expand as a whole not all countries will grow at the same pace Along with population growth economic growth will be concentrated in the developing countries which are predicted to expand at an average rate of 4 2 % per year until 2030 2 Politically this will translate into an increased ability on the part chief of force development 17 the future security environment 2008-2030 of developing countries to achieve their objectives on the international stage While the United States will probably remain the world’s largest economy in 2030 China India and Brazil will have dramatically increased their economic stature by that time Regional economic disparities could possibly increase the propensity for violence between states and hence could possibly be a driver of conflict and war A country with a rapidly expanding economy could possibly be tempted to channel its new wealth into aggression trying to attain goals that were formerly out of reach Alternatively a more powerful country with a slow-growing economy might be afraid that its position will be overtaken by another country whose economy is expanding more rapidly Differing rates of economic growth can open and close windows of opportunity for states that are hoping to maintain or improve their position on the international stage Similarly change or the expectation of change within national economies has the capacity to stimulate rivalries and competition along existing social fault lines potentially leading to violence and instability Violence and instability will also be a probable outcome of the empowerment of warlords their links to international crime and the lack of equitable distribution of financial benefits Although sustained world growth should logically reduce the numbers of people living in dire poverty any benefits accrued will be spread unevenly within societies Income disparities could possibly widen Social groups such as unskilled labourers or disadvantaged ethnic groups could be possibly be left behind by the process of globalization While this dynamic will be seen in both developed and developing countries the majority of developed countries due to greater capacity will be better able to mitigate the hard-ships suffered by the disadvantaged Nonetheless economic upheaval and deepening inequalities may spark conflicts within developed or developing countries Deduction 1 While globalization will bring greater economic prosperity to more nations the gap between rich and poor nations and individuals could possibly widen Economic disparity will be a source of tension and potential conflict Security of the Oceans Ensuring the security of the world’s oceans will be paramount in the future security environment More than two thirds of the planet is covered by water 90% of the world’s trade is conducted by water and 80% of the world’s urban centres are located 18 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends in the littoral Globalization has only increased the importance of the maritime domain as a vital conduit for the transportation of goods all over the world Canada needs to maintain this extensive global supply chain in order to preserve freedom of the seas and ensure that there are no interruptions in the transport of desirable goods and people This increased shipping activity has also identified a need to interdict the movement of illicit goods and people The maritime domain is of particular importance to the international energy market More than two thirds of the world’s oil is transported by sea Much of this oil transits through various chokepoints Strait of Hormuz – 17 million bbl day Strait of Malacca – 15 million bbl day Bab el-Mandab – 3 3 million bbl day which makes these areas strategically important to oil importing nations Any interruption in the supply of oil resulting from an inability to keep the sea-lines open could be catastrophic and will be an increasing vulnerability The blockage of a chokepoint – even for a short period of time – could lead to oil shortages and skyrocketing energy prices Chokepoints also pose a serious threat to oil tankers which become more vulnerable to terrorist attack piracy and shipping accidents The expected increase in the demand for oil by Asian nations like China and India will increase competition for oil and may make distribution networks and chokepoints even more susceptible to security threats in the future 3 Deduction 2 Developed nations will find it in their best interest to pursue diplomatic solutions for the protection of economic investments trade and transportation routes however aggressive responses to threats to trade or economic well-being are always a possibility Canada – A Trading Nation Canada will continue to be a trading nation In 2006 Canada exported $523 7 billion of goods and services which accounted for roughly 36 4% of its GDP Over that same period Canada imported $486 5 billion of goods and services 4 The country’s most important trading partner is the United States which currently takes about 80% of Canada’s exports and is the source of 65% of its imports Each day $1 9 billion of goods and services cross the border between the two countries which represented an annual total of $708 9 billion in 2006 5 In contrast Canada’s second most important export market the United Kingdom accounted for just 2 8% of Canada’s exports while China the second largest source of imports accounted for no more than 8 7% of total imports 6 chief of force development 19 the future security environment 2008-2030 While trade with other countries will continue to expand it is unlikely that another country will overtake the United States US as Canada’s primary trading partner by 2030 Preserving the free flow of goods and services across the border as well as maintaining mutual trust and confidence will therefore continue to be critically important to both countries Nonetheless the expansion of ties with other countries particularly in the developing world will have important security implications for Canada which will have to address for example the importation of illegal cargoes or CBRN threats and the protection of ports and trade routes from attack Finally the increasing movement of goods and people while beneficial will expose Canada and Canadians to additional threats such as terrorism or disease With the world’s longest coastline the impending opening of the Northwest Passage and the increased movement of goods and resources by sea it is probable that in future Canada will have to place more importance on maritime security Given that 97% of all goods destined for Canada are transported by sea it is clear that maritime trade is critical to the Canadian economy Canadian ports both east and west have seen marked increases in container traffic over the past few years which is resulting in an increased vulnerability to asymmetric attacks and international crime Vancouver in particular accounts for almost half the container and cargo traffic in the country Between 2005 and 2006 the Port of Vancouver saw a 4% increase in cargo volume an increase of almost 3 million tonnes Montreal and Halifax have seen similar increases and all three of those ports have been expanding and improving their infrastructure to compensate This trend is expected to continue with the volume of trade expected to double by 2037 7 Vancouver and Prince Rupert will become increasingly important as the Asia-Pacific Gateway is developed Both of these locales are closer to Asia than any other icefree North American port a significant competitive advantage The Gateway is envisioned as a comprehensive maritime air road and rail transportation network that would vastly improve Canada’s ability to handle increased importation traffic and facilitate export of Canadian raw materials to Asian manufacturing centres 8 Clearly if Canada’s Western ports are to become a gateway for North AmericanAsian trade future infrastructure expansion will have to take place For example there will be a need for inland container processing terminals and dedicated rail corridors to decongest crowded port terminals and to move container processing away from dock facilities In Canada such facilities could conceivably be built as far east as the Alberta side of the Rockies 9 20 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends This expansion of maritime commerce and the related infrastructure raises a number of security questions For example how does our country monitor what comes across our borders from the sea At the present time only 3% of inbound containers are inspected upon arrival in Canada 10 Moreover inland-processing terminals while necessary to economic growth could result in a situation where illegal dangerous or other undesirable cargos are shipped immediately into the interior of the country Since Canada has only two rail corridors through the Rocky Mountains ensuring the protection and safety of these easily disrupted arteries represents another security challenge These are serious vulnerabilities capable of exploitation by trans-national terrorists and criminals alike Maintaining the security of these ports vessels and cargo poses a difficult security challenge that will only increase in the future 11 Without supporting security policies and processes these western ports may become a gateway for threats as well as trade Deduction 3 Protection of both continental and international trade routes from disruption will be essential to Canada’s economic well-being Because of the trans-national nature of maritime trade the CF could possibly be asked to provide increased surveillance and other resources to keep potential threats away from vulnerable ports and transportation routes and to respond to threats that find their way into Canada’s transportation infrastructure system Causes of Instability Migration and Population Displacement The developed world is expecting little or no increase in population and in some cases a decrease over the next decade The population of the developing world on the other hand will continue to grow The recruitment by developed nations of skilled labour from the developing world is expected to continue as the wealthier countries attempt to address the consequences of an aging population This is expected to cause a greater than normal migration to the developed world both legal and illegal and these new citizens will probably continue to change the social political and economic structures of the societies they join States that see a net increase in emigration might experience decreased productivity owing to a shrinking labour pool States that see a net increase in immigration will probably be concerned about the economic impact of an influx of new workers on their domestic labour markets chief of force development 21 the future security environment 2008-2030 Events as diverse as natural disasters or the outbreak of war can spark mass migrations of people to adjacent areas sometimes across borders and often into areas with little to no capacity to cope with sudden new stresses Such mass movements can be politically and socially destabilizing and can spread conflict across large areas Furthermore refugees and internally displaced groups often forced to live in dense and unsanitary conditions are prone to infectious disease which can spread rapidly Uprooted and displaced such populations are vulnerable to an array of hazards and may require immediate humanitarian aid Deduction 4 The mass movement of large segments of people is destabilizing and may result in civil unrest regional clashes or humanitarian crises that require response and resolution through the diplomatic development and or defence instruments of developed nations Urbanization and Mega-Cities According to UN reports 60% of the global population will live in urban areas by 2030 70% by 2050 In 2008 the world’s urban population equalled the world’s rural population in the future as populations grow most of the global population will live in urban areas Population projections forecast that 4 9 billion people will be living in cities by 2030 and this will almost double to 9 2 billion people by 2050 Urban areas are expected to absorb all this population growth and they will continue to attract rural dwellers seeking more lucrative opportunities and better living standards Population growth will be concentrated in the urban centres of the less developed world particularly in regions like Asia Africa Latin America and the Caribbean 12 A corollary of global urbanization is the rise of mega-cities – urban agglomerations of more than ten million inhabitants In 2007 there were nineteen mega-cities the projected number by 2025 is 27 By 2025 10% of the world’s population will reside in mega-cities Eighty percent of these projected mega-cities will be in the developing world Because these cities are already so large and because they will be inundated with an overwhelming influx of residents over the next few decades sizable areas of these cities will be poor congested polluted and poorly served by transportation and housing Hence shanty-towns lacking running water and sewers will not be uncommon accommodations for the urban poor Seven percent of the urban population will live in large-cities urban centres with five to ten million inhabitants By 2025 there will be forty-eight of these large urban centres there 22 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends were thirty in 2007 and 75% of these mega-cities-in-the-making will be found in the developing world 13 Projected Mega-city Population of 2025 Urban Agglomeration Population millions Tokyo Japan 36 4 Bombay India 26 4 Delhi India 22 5 São Paulo Brazil 21 4 Mexico City Mexico 21 0 New York-Newark USA 20 6 Calcutta India 20 6 Shanghai China 19 4 Karachi Pakistan 19 1 Kinshasa Dem Republic of Congo 16 8 Lagos Nigeria 15 8 Cairo Egypt 15 6 Manila Philippines 14 8 Beijing China 14 5 Buenos Aires Argentina 13 8 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana USA 13 7 Rio de Janeiro Brazil 13 4 Jakarta Indonesia 12 4 Istanbul Turkey 12 1 Guangzhou Guangdong China 11 8 Osaka-Kobe Japan 11 4 Moscow Russia Federation 10 5 Lahore Pakistan 10 5 Shenzhen China 10 2 Madras India 10 1 Paris France 10 0 Figure 2 Projected mega-city population in 2025 Source United Nations World Urbanization Prospects The 2007 Revision p 10 Urbanization and the growth of mega-cities raise a number of security concerns The expansion of large cities and mega-cities will occur in littoral coastal areas within 100km of the coast Currently 60% of the world’s population inhabits regions within 100km of a seacoast while 70% live within 320 km of the sea Such regions chief of force development 23 the future security environment 2008-2030 are vulnerable to environmental risks such as extreme weather and the flooding of low-lying coastal regions Due to the fact that the vast majority of growing urban centres are located in the developing world these cities will suffer from a shortage of infrastructure and housing meaning that much of the poorer population will live in slums that lack basic public services Mega-cities will put a great deal of strain on municipal and state institutions While competent and well-resourced governments will probably manage fairly well city-dwellers in failed and fragile states are likely to experience a lack of economic opportunity inadequate infrastructure exposure to disease and criminal predation The result may be civil unrest and people who feel disenfranchised may be more likely to join criminal or terrorist groups out of fear or dissatisfaction 14 These large and chaotic urban centres will become a new battleground Large unregulated cities will provide criminals terrorists and insurgents with new havens from which they can organize and launch operations they will also offer a ready pool of disenchanted recruits Not only will adversaries be able to blend and embed themselves into massive city populations they will be able to hide behind civilians and mitigate the firepower advantages of nations who abide by international law and whose rules of engagement and or public opinion preclude collateral damage The failure of a megalopolis owing to a government’s inability to provide essential services or a governance vacuum will only aggravate the humanitarian crisis create a vulnerability to political extremism increase the demand for stabilization and reconstruction through intervention and exacerbate the lawlessness that will help shelter and facilitate the work of criminals terrorists and insurgents The sheer geographical size of such a city reduced to chaos and the huge numbers of people who either need help or are abetting massive unrest could possibly ultimately overwhelm the defence teams that developed nations are able to send thus leading to mission failure and enabling the criminals terrorists and insurgents to operate with impunity 15 Deduction 5 The urbanization of the world’s populations will continue The failure of the megalopolis in the developing world will increase the risk of disease pandemic and humanitarian crisis and will also accentuate the increasingly urbanized nature of conflict and the need for urban warfare capabilities 24 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Disease and Pandemics The localized or global appearance of any infectious disease could have a direct or indirect effect on Canada and the world whether demographically economically militarily or politically Globalization rapid urbanization mass transit climate change and changing social behaviours…all have the capacity to increase the incidence and spread of disease The ease and affordability of air travel make it possible for people animals and products to move quickly from one part of the globe to another consequently any diseases hosted by these carriers can be easily transported and introduced into areas where the disease was not previously endemic 16 Increased death rates in developing countries resulting from infectious disease epidemics could possibly reduce the segment of the population ages 15 to 64 that is not only the most economically active but is also the pool that supplies the labour force the armed forces government employees and leaders With such a loss in worker productivity – because of illness caring for sick relatives or raising the orphaned children of relatives – the gross national product of such countries could possibly stagnate over the next thirty years or fall below present-day levels Infectious disease can deprive law enforcement and national security forces of trained personnel and expertise In a nation that is unable to mitigate or control an outbreak governance capabilities may become compromised as experienced bureaucrats politicians and cabinet ministers succumb to disease 17 Outbreaks of disease could have a substantial impact on the global economy and international relations Governments in an effort to prevent the transmission of infectious diseases may close their borders to international travel or trade In response to Mad Cow Disease Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and Avian Influenza H5N1 one third of the world’s meat supply was embargoed in early 2003 according to a UN Food and Agriculture Organization report 18 The potential economic impact on Canada of such incidents should not be underestimated The 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS cost the Canadian economy $419 million and the Ontario health care system $763 million 19 Similarly the May 2003 identification of a BSE-infected cow in Alberta led to a ban on beef exports to the US that lasted over two years resulted in an estimated 4 200 jobs lost and had an ongoing direct fiscal impact on Canada’s beef industry estimated at around $7 billion 20 Many recent widespread outbreaks of infectious diseases have originated in animals including Avian Influenza SARS Ebola and Swine Influenza H1N1 The cross-border movement of people and meat products creates a risk that such diseases will be spread around the world in short periods of time chief of force development 25 the future security environment 2008-2030 Such movement also increases the probability that existing animal diseases will mutate and become zoonotic – have the capacity to infect humans 21 Developing nations are short of health care funding hospitals equipment vaccine stockpiles and health care workers For example a typical Human Immunodeficiency Virus HIV AIDS drug cocktail costs approximately $15 000 per patient per year a price few developing states are able to bear Another example the influenza vaccine is only commercially produced in nine countries and at a rate insufficient to satisfy global demand A scarcity of educated health care workers in developing regions and an inability to compete with western recruitment campaigns is causing a further drain on the health care systems of these countries An example of this is the active recruiting of nursing school graduates in Botswana by South Africa and the United Kingdom Overall these situations are significantly eroding the ability of developing states to prevent and respond to the spread of disease and potential pandemics 22 It is virtually impossible to accurately predict which strain of which disease will cause the next epidemic or pandemic There are a number of diseases however that are currently commanding a lot of attention in the public and political spheres The outbreaks of SARS H5N1 H1N1 and HIV AIDS were not predicted and dengue fever and malaria have yet to be eradicated after thousands of years of existence While at the same time re-emerging in developed nations tuberculosis polio bubonic plague leprosy yellow fever measles and mumps continue to strain the capacities of weak health care systems in Africa and Asia and other developing regions 23 It is expected that the numbers of annual HIV AIDS deaths globally will rise from 2 2 million in 2002 to 6 5 million in 2030 Sub-Saharan Africa is the most HIV AIDS infected region of the world and posted 2 1 million deaths in 2006 During that same year 590 000 people died of HIV AIDS in South and South-East Asia Trends indicate that the centre of the HIV AIDS pandemic will shift to the Eurasian region in future with China India and Russia recording in a mild epidemic scenario some 66 million new cases between 2000 and 2025 24 The primary problem with epidemics and pandemics is that their economic demographic and political impacts can be severe regardless of whether the victim is a developed or a developing state Moreover it is extremely difficult owing to the nature of globalization to control the spread of infectious diseases in today’s world of interconnectivity and world travel and it is even more difficult to predict coming outbreaks as recent events have shown There is a good chance that multiple infectious disease events of varying severity will occur in different locales between now and 2030 Also there is the very real possibility that without effective 26 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends medical support and precautions infectious diseases will be imported to Canada by both travelers from the general public and returning members of deployed forces Acknowledging these threats and vulnerabilities and developing preparedness is key to limiting global impact 25 Deduction 6 Nations will have to be prepared to respond to the consequences of the global outbreak of infectious diseases Poverty According to a report of the UN Commission on Social Development 735 million people will be living in extreme poverty living on less than $1 a day by 2015 Although this is fewer than the 1 22 billion impoverished people tallied in 1990 it still represents an enormous number of people who lack access to money education health care and power China has seen the most success in reaching its poverty reduction targets for the UN Millennium Goal before 2015 South America and the Caribbean are struggling to meet those goals many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have made no progress and Europe and Central Asia have actually seen their poverty rates increase 26 Many obstacles impede the goal of poverty eradication and these are prevalent in the developing world Weak economic growth and unequal income distribution within a nation forestall the reduction of poverty Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America have the highest levels of income inequality Another barrier to poverty reduction is unequal representation by males and females in the workforce and levels of school enrolment In Southern Asia Western Asia and Northern Africa only 20% of non-agricultural sector jobs are held by women Rural communities are more impoverished than urban centres since rural areas lack access to services HIV AIDS has had a devastating effect on the third world particularly on Sub-Saharan Africa Bread-winners are struck down in the prime of life and their dependents are left in poverty Surviving children are often unable to attend school but must immediately make a living by joining the workforce Grandparents already surviving on fewer economic resources in their old age as well are called upon to support orphaned grandchildren Armed conflict reinforces this poverty and diverts government attention and funding from resolving the problem Nearly 40% of the world’s conflicts are taking place on the continent of Africa 27 chief of force development 27 the future security environment 2008-2030 Based on current trends the failure to eradicate poverty in Africa does not bode well for the future particularly with respect to security issues The result could possibly be mass migration as people leave impoverished or war-torn regions in search of more resources or better employment opportunities In most cases the final destination of these refugees will not be any better at accommodating them than their original place of residence A mass influx of people may generate a humanitarian crisis or an ethnic clash which will call for either humanitarian assistance or a stabilization mission or both Discontented and resentful people could possibly also spark domestic conflicts with riots or protests concerning economic disparity or resource shortages This could possibly result in calls for developed nations to mount humanitarian and or stabilization operations Regions full of desperate and disenchanted people also serve as pools of recruits for terrorist organizations crusading against the secularism materialism and unshared wealth of developed nations Deduction 7 Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia are regions where instability and inequality stemming from extreme poverty could possibly require humanitarian and or stabilization missions Violent Religious Extremism Examples of violent religious extremism can be found throughout history but globalization has allowed the reach and effects of violent extremist actions to have a truly international impact 28 The term “violent religious extremism” is meant to describe religion-based ideologies and violence carried out using religious piety as a motivator and as justification These actions typically contravene conventional moderate interpretations of classic religious texts and scriptures For example the killing of innocents contravenes the scriptures of all three major monotheistic religions Judaism Christianity Islam while suicide the taking of hostages and even coercion on religious matters is strictly forbidden according to many interpretations of the Koran 29 Frequently religious extremism is predicated on literal rather than spiritual interpretations of scripture and this extremism is supported by a selective and superficial use of historical material and mythology that resonates with a particular target audience By manipulating these various components religious extremists create what they purport to be logic-based narratives which are then used to attract retain and inspire recruits 30 The goal is to influence political dialogue at the international regional and local levels through the use of violence and propaganda Though almost all major religions have extremist elements it is the growth of Muslim extremism that will have the greatest impact on the security 28 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends environment over the next several decades There are numerous reasons for this which include demographic trends the global yet personal and comprehensive nature of Islam and ongoing and potential conflicts in predominately Muslimpopulated areas of the world 31 Most modern religious extremism at least with the three major monotheistic religions began to develop approximately a century ago and parallels the rise of secular democracy and the expansion of scientific thought in the West 32 Though drawing on history it was not until the 20th century that influential writings that now form the basis of extremist narratives became popularized particularly with regard to those employed by Muslim extremists 33 Although grievances such as poverty and inequality are a component of typical extremist narratives the central pillar is a rejection of modernity because of a perceived absence of God and religion in modern society 34 Context-specific grievances are used in a supporting manner by the overarching narratives but they have more salience at regional and local levels when employed by specific groups and individuals to justify their actions The narratives employed by violent extremists normally clash with traditional moderate streams of thought within religions In some cases particularly within Islam this clash is partly responsible for creating and exacerbating a bifurcated system of orthodox or fundamentalist thought and moderate thinking that is compatible and comfortable existing within modernity 35 Unfortunately the violent and often spectacular nature of extremist violence garners much more attention than the critiques of such actions by moderate voices This obscures the limited acceptance of such actions within a community of believers while creating perceptions of credibility and legitimacy that may not be accurate The global spread of extremist Islamist ideology has occurred because it resonates with a small minority of often middle-class educated young Muslims who are globally aware technically savvy and frequently members of diasporas living in Western secular democratic countries Indeed the major centres of extremist thought are often located in developed and relatively wealthy countries It is not those in povertystricken underdeveloped regions that represent the major threat rather it is those upper- and middle-class people who are relatively well-off exist within Western society and possess the knowledge and fiscal resources to create and disseminate propaganda supporting overarching narratives they generate funds to support extremist activities globally help in the conception and execution of operations and are able to leverage international networks to achieve their goals Combined with other trends and threats including ungoverned spaces in failed and fragile states that provide enabling sites and ready recruits extremist religious ideologies pose a chief of force development 29 the future security environment 2008-2030 serious persistent and in many ways unmanageable threat to Western interests The narratives of religious extremism pose a major threat because they have enabled followers to strike within Western states while sustaining regional conflicts in the developing world through the supply of human and fiscal resources 36 Deduction 8 Religious extremism will continue to be motivated by narratives founded on disagreement with secular pluralistic social and governance models The simplicity of these narratives will continue to attract followers across the globe threatening Canada and its interests at home and abroad Demographics Youth Bulges Population growth patterns in the developing and developed worlds are following two very different trends The demographic profiles of developing countries are characterized by large youth bulges the population between the ages of 12 and 24 which accounts for over 50% of the population The ten states with the largest youth bulges are located in sub-Saharan Africa the next five states with significant youth bulges are found in the Middle East Once this youth bulge begins to reproduce the birthrate in these countries will most likely increase It is projected that by 2050 populations on the Arabian Peninsula and in Iraq and the Palestinian Territory will more than double in size Egypt’s population is expected to reach 120 million Iran and Turkey are projected to have populations of approximately 100 million each While the elderly populations in these countries are expected to increase they will remain a small percentage of the overall population By 2050 the population of people 60 or older in Saudi Arabia is expected to grow to 18% whereas the UN projects that the same group in Europe will account for 33% of the total population 37 The large youth cohorts in these developing and often unstable regions is placing heavy social and infrastructure demands on governments that lack the capacity to give their people proper education social services housing and employment opportunities When people are unable to attend high school or university find gainful employment on graduation or afford housing or marriage they understandably become dissatisfied While young people have a tendency to protest vocally and feel an attraction to radical political expressions of discontent unemployed university 30 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends graduates have the education to lodge articulate grievances against their governments Impoverished youth without hope of economic improvement or social legitimacy provide a ready pool of recruits for suicide operations or terrorist organizations Even when these over-represented young people are given employment in a state’s legitimate military large standing armies may cause regional instability by making neighbouring countries nervous from the military threat they pose whether imagined or explicit 38 Studies have shown that countries with youth bulges are three times more likely to experience civil wars coup d’états or armed insurrections 39 Deduction 9 Youth bulges and high unemployment will continue to characterize the demographic profile of the developing world and will act as a root cause of regional and international instability Aging Populations The developed world on the other hand has been posting much lower birthrates than the developing world Consequently population growth has been fuelled solely through migration and the demographic profile is that of an aging labour force The UN projects that the population aged 60 and over in the world’s developed regions will increase from 245 million in 2005 to 406 million in 2050 and that the population under age 60 will decline from 971 million in 2005 to 839 million by 2050 40 Canada is representative of a phenomenon that is taking place in the US the UK and Japan to name just a few countries Based on the 2006 census for Canada it is forecast that by the year 2016 the number of Canadians over the age of 65 will exceed those under the age of 15 That means that DND CF will be recruiting from a dwindling skilled labour pool that will be targeted with equal tenacity by other employment sectors The next obvious pool of recruits is Generation Y – the children of baby-boomers these potential recruits however have extremely non-traditional attitudes toward work ethics hierarchical institutions and career loyalties 41 Immigration is rapidly changing the face of Canada Having surpassed a population of 32 5 million people 2006 Canada is expected to reach approximately 39 million by 2030 Much of the skilled labour required today in Canada is being supplied through immigration Statistics Canada predicts that by 2011 virtually all labour force growth will result from the contributions of immigrants many of whom currently belong to under-represented groups Statistics Canada estimates that by chief of force development 31 the future security environment 2008-2030 2017 one out of every five people in Canada will belong to a visible minority and that more than half of the visible minority population in Canada will be from either Chinese or South Asian groups 42 Figure 3 Canada’s Demographic distribution in 2006 Source Statistics Canada The labour force in coming years will most certainly include a significant number of older Canadians who are not yet willing to retire While some skills lend themselves to replacement by new labour force entrants this is not the case for increasingly valuable non-technical skills that are usually garnered through experience including management communication and teaming skills Consequently this older labour force with proper development training and upgrading will in coming years represent an excellent source of skills for organizations that are having difficulty attracting and retaining youth this approach is not sustainable over the longer term however and as we approach the twenty-year horizon it will become increasingly difficult to use this remedy The fact that more people will be retiring from the workforce than entering it will have profound ramifications for government spending Not only will there be a labour shortage but there will also be a smaller tax base at the same time as higher public pension payments and increased health care costs along with a projected $20 billion loss in tax revenue Canada will be dealing with a $12 billion increase in pension payments and a $38 billion increase in health care spending Of concern to the CF is the fact that this predicted shift in government spending will be concurrent with the provisions in the CF’s capital program for the acquisition of its next major combat capability replacements 32 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Deduction 10 Aging Western populations will be challenged to find recruits to sustain defence and armed force structures as competition for labour will occur worldwide in the private public and defence sectors especially in Canada Conclusion and Implications for DND CF Globalization despite the wealth of opportunity it affords also poses many challenges and intensifies social and economic trends that are potential causes of instability Economic disparity demographic profiles migration urbanization disease poverty and extremism – all can have destabilizing effects and globalization means that these effects will be felt around the world Migration diasporas and urbanization in the developing world are of concern because instability and conflicts not only attract global attention they will also likely require international intervention at some point Urbanization without proper health and sanitary infrastructures will further the spread of infectious diseases and mass transit – of both goods and people – will facilitate the spread of potential pandemics Conflict unrest stemming from unemployment and economic downturns in certain regions will now be felt all over the world owing to the increasing interconnectedness of nations Because of this aging population the CF must seek innovative solutions to recruiting and retention in order to sustain its force structure The CF will be competing with the private sector and other government departments as well as other countries to attract recruits from a dwindling labour pool Consequently the CF will have to devise recruitment and retention strategies to reach men and women from every ethnic group in Canadian society people who are not only interested in serving Canada in uniform but are also willing to accept the ethos of the profession of arms 43 Operational tempo quality of life and complications stemming from multiple citizenships are some of the issues that will have to be addressed if the CF is to attract and retain personnel Human Resources Civilian will need to expand its capacity in order to accommodate more civilians on international operations which will become the norm This will mean a forward-looking review of legislation policies and compensation More agile approaches to recruiting may have to be pursued in order to compensate for the declining numbers of Canadians available for traditional military service In future human resources will likely need to take a more holistic approach to the chief of force development 33 the future security environment 2008-2030 Whole Defence Team a approach where both military and civilian personnel public servants contractors and student apprenticeships are used as efficiently as possible to ensure that there are sufficient numbers of uniformed personnel trained and available for contingencies at any time This would involve revisiting existing force structures and removing the barriers to a plethora of human resource solutions concepts implementing a Whole of Defence Team approach and a Multi-Tiered CF that transcends Regular Reserve designations so as to capture more people according to their capabilities skill sets and availability Other avenues worth exploring when it comes to finding this required talent could include international exchange programs education incentives and investments in cross-functional programs and or MOUs with other government departments and the private sector to outsource work to organizations already in possession of the people and capabilities Globalization is empowering non-state and multinational actors thus challenging Canada and its allies to find a means of dealing with both legitimate non-state partners and legitimate and illegitimate non-state adversaries Migration and urbanization are increasing the incidence of conflict in the world The CF must ensure that it has a developed capacity to conduct operations in urban and littoral environments Although each driver on its own is unlikely to spark a crisis or conflict the convergence of negative trends in economics demographics or social well-being can be expected to create and or exacerbate pre-existing tensions and threaten a fragile peace Humanitarian missions to address social crises will be probable as well as stabilization and or reconstruction missions should social unrest get out of hand and turn into internal or inter-regional conflict Notes 1 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank Global Environmental Prospects 2007 Washington The World Bank 2007 p xiii http www worldbank org gep2007 accessed 1 August 2007 2 Global Environmental Prospects 2007 p xiii 3 United States Government The National Strategy for Maritime Security Washington DC Department of Homeland Defence September 2005 http www dhs gov xlibrary assets HSPD13_ MaritimeSecurityStrategy pdf accessed 6 February 2008 Richard M Lloyd ed Economics and Maritime Strategy Implications for the 21st Century Newport Rhode Island US Naval War College 2006 “International Tanker” on Overseas Shipholding Group Inc website http www osg com oi_tankermarket htm accessed 29 January 2008 Jean-Paul Rodrigue “Straits Passages and Chokepoints A Maritime Geo-strategy of Petroleum Distribution” in Cahiers de Géographie du Québec 48 135 December 2004 357-374 http people hofstra edu Jean-paul_Rodrigue downloads CGQ_strategicoil pdf accessed 6 February 2008 “World Oil Transit Chokepoints “Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the US Government website http www eia doe gov cabs World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints Background html accessed 29 January 2008 “Oil Transit Chokepoints” on Encyclopedia of Earth Website http www eoearth org article Oil_transit_chokepoints accessed 29 January 2008 34 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends 4 Government of Canada “Canada’s International Market Access Report 2007” Ottawa Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada 2007 http www international gc ca tna-nac 2007 pdf ITC_ MarketAccess_ENG_final pdf accessed 1 August 2007 5 “Canada’s International Market Access Report 2007 ” 6 Government of Ontario “Canada’s Major Trading Partners – 2006 ” http www 2ontario com welcome coca_401 asp accessed 1 August 2007 7 “Canadian Customs Articles” on Canadian Society of Customs Brokers website http www cscb ca 050 rs_prev_e cfm ID 11959 accessed 29 January 2008 “Trade and Shipping Statistics” on Port of Vancouver website http www portvancouver coml trade_shipping accessed 29 January 2008 “North American Port Container Traffic 2005” on Statistics Canada Website http statcan ca english freepub 11-002 -XIE 2005 04 10205 10205_03p htm accessed 29 January 2008 8 Marcus Gee “How Vancouver is Missing the Boat ” The Globe and Mail 12 February 2008 p B1 9 Jeff Burghardt A DeFehr R Turner Asia Pacific Gateway and Corridor Initiative APGCI Report and Recommendations 21 January 2008 http www tc gc ca majorissues APGCI StrategicAdvisorReport htm accessed 20 March 2008 10 The Honourable Colin Kenny “Port Security Which Agencies National and Local Civilian and Military Provide Security for Canadian Ports ” Excerpts of reports of Senate Committee on National Security and Defence on Canadian-American Strageic Review website http www sfu ca casr ft-senate1 htm accessed 16 June 2008 11 http www parl gc ca information library PRBpubs prb0575-e htm http dsp-psd pwgsc gc ca Collection-R LoPBdP BP bp364-e htm Steve Stackhouse “Canada The Asia-Pacific Gateway” on Location Canada website http www locationcanada com asiaPacific htm accessed 29 January 2008 “2007 Cargo Statistics” on Port of Halifax website http www portofhalifax ca english portat-a-glance statistics index html accessed 29 January 2008 Peter Kieran “World Trends in Shipping and Port Reform” Port Reform Seminar South Africa 22-23 January 2003 http www dpe gov za res PeterKieranWorldTrendsinShippingandPortReform pdf accessed 29 January 2008 12 United Nations World Urbanization Prospect The 2007 Revision New York United Nations 2008 pp 1 2 4 United States Government Joint Operating Environment Trends and Challenges for the Future Joint Force Through 2030 Norfolk United States Joint Forces Command December 2007 p 15 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme p 9 13 United Nations World Urbanization Prospect The 2007 Revision pp 9 10 Mark Lewis “Paging Thomas Malthus Your Nightmare Has Finally Arrived” on Forbes com 6 November 2007 http www forbes com 2007 06 11 megacities-population-urbanization-biz-cx_21cities_ml_0611megacities html accessed 2 April 2008 14 United States Department of Defense Naval Operations Concept 2006 Washington Navy-Marine Corps joint publication 2006 p 9 JFCOM Joint Operating Environment pp 15-16 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme p 9 15 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme pp 30 69 ABCA “Strategic Assessment of the Security Environment 2008-2030 ” p 16 Peter Leahy “Welcome to the strategic private” in Defence October 2004 http www defence gov au defencemagazine editions 011004 groups army htm accessed 27 March 2008 16 Martin Libicki and Shari Lawrence Pfleeger Collecting the Dots Problem Formation and Solution Elements Arlington RAND Occasional Papers 2004 pp 14 15 21 http www rand org pubs occasional_papers OP103 index html accessed 2 April 2007 17 Nicholas Eberstadt “The Future of AIDS” in Foreign Affairs 81 6 November December 2002 8 10 11 http www foreignaffairs org accessed 2 April 2007 Laurie Garrett “The Lessons of HIV AIDS” in Foreign Affairs 84 4 July August 2005 3 5 http www foreignaffairs org accessed 2 April 2007 Libicki Collecting the Dots pp 48-50 chief of force development 35 the future security environment 2008-2030 18 Michael Osterholm “Preparing for the Next Pandemic” in Foreign Affairs 84 4 July August 2005 1 2 4 http www foreignaffairs org accessed 2 April 2007 William Karesh and Robert Cook “The Human-Animal Link” in Foreign Affairs 84 4 July August 2005 5 http www foreignaffairs org accessed 2 April 2007 19 Osterholm “Preparing for the Next Pandemic ” pp 1 2 4 Government of Canada “SARS ” Health Canada http www hc-sc gc ca dc-ma sars-sras index_e html accessed 30 March 2007 20 Andrew Nikiforuk “Bum Steer ” The Globe and Mail Report on Business 29 September 2006 CTV News “Canada has second case of BSE CFIA ” CTV News 3 January 2005 http www ctv ca servlet ArticleNews story CTVNews 1104709089734_2 hub TopStories accessed 28 March 2008 21 Karesh “The Human-Animal Link ” pp 1 2 4 22 Laurie Garrett “The Challenge of Global Health ” Foreign Affairs 86 1 January February 2007 1 6 7 http www foreignaffairs org accessed 2 April 2007 Laurie Garrett “The Next Pandemic ” Foreign Affairs 84 4 July August 2005 7 8 10 http www foreignaffairs org accessed 2 April 2007 Garrett “The Lessons of HIV AIDS ” in Foreign Affairs 84 4 July August 2005 6-7 http www foreignaffairs org accessed 2 April 2007 Osterholm “Preparing for the Next Pandemic ” pp 1 2 4 23 Jennifer Wilson “Ancient Scourges Still Plague the Modern World ” 26 March 2008 http www cbc ca news background health scourges html accessed 26 March 2008 24 World Health Organization “HIV AIDS Facts and Figures ” Global Burden Power-Point Presentation Regional Office for South-East Asia http www searo who int EN Section10 Section18 Section348 htm accessed 30 March 2007 Garrett “The Lessons of HIV AIDS ” pp 2 6 Libicki Collecting the Dots pp 48-50 Eberstadt “The Future of AIDS ” pp 1 6 7 8 11 Mathers Colin and Dejan Concar “Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 ” PloS Medicine 3 11 November 2006 2011 http www plosmedicine org accessed 30 March 2007 25 Canadian Foundation for Infectious Diseases A Call For A National Infectious Diseases Strategy 18 October 2007 http www nidd ca about_paper html accessed 26 March 2008 26 United Nations Review of the First United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty 1997-2006 New York United Nations Economic and Social Council December 2005 http daccessedds un org doc UNDOC GEN N05 608 34 PDF N0560834 pdf OpenElment accessed 3 April 2008 27 United Nations Review of the First United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty 19972006 New York United Nations Economic and Social Council December 2005 http daccessedds un org doc UNDOC GEN N05 608 34 PDF N0560834 pdf OpenElment accessed 3 April 2008 28 Karen Armstrong The Battle for God A History of Fundamentalism New York Ballantine 2001 p vii 29 Karen Armstrong Islam New York Modern Library 2000 pp 164-175 30 Armstrong The Battle for God p 366 31 Akbar Ahmed Islam Under Siege Cambridge UK Polity 2003 pp 7-8 Oliver Roy Globalized Islam The Search for a New Ummah NY Columbia University Press 2004 pp 5-17 32 Armstrong The Battle for God p xiii 33 Walid Phares The War of Ideas NY Palgrave Macmillan 2007 pp 35-38 See also Armstrong The Battle for God passim 34 Armstrong The Battle for God pp xiii-xiv also John Esposito Islam The Straight Path 3rd ed New York Oxford University Press 1998 p 246 35 Esposito Islam The Straight Path p 246 36 For example the international fundraising and recruiting activities of Hamas are a well-known and documented example of this See Matthew Levitt Hamas Politics Charity and Terrorism in the Service of Jihad New Haven Yale University Press 2006 36 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends 37 Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi and Mary Mederios Kent “Challenges and Opportunities – The Population of the Middle East and North Africa” in Population Bulletin 62 June 2007 reference Bureau 2007 http www prb org Publications PopulationBulletins 2007 ChallengesOpportunitiesinMENA aspx accessed 16 April 2008 38 Graham Fuller “The Youth Factor The New Demographics of the Middle East and Implications for US policy ” The Brookings Institution US Relations with Islamic World Analysis Paper 3 2003 pp 6-9 11 16 18-21 24 31 33 http www brookings edu fp projects islam fuller2003 pdf accessed 24 April 2007 39 Mathers “Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030” also see Henrik Urdah “A Clash of Generations Youth Bulges and Political Violence ” International Studies Quarterly 50 2006 pp 607-629 40 United Nations UN World Population Prospects The 2006 Revision New York United Nations 2007 http www un org esa population publications wpp2006 English pdf accessed 16 April 2008 41 Statistics Canada Portrait of the Canadian Population in 2006 by Age and Sex 2006 Census Ottawa Minister of Industry pp 7 12 http www12 statcan ca english census06 analysis agesex index cfm accessed 25 July 2007 42 Government of Canada Immigration in Canada A Portrait of the Foreign Born Population 2006 Census Ottawa Statistics Canada 2007 pp 7 9 http www12 statcan ca english census06 analysis immcit pdf 97-557-XIE2006001 pdf accessed 17 April 2008 43 Military HR Strategy 2020 pp 2 3 15 chief of force development 37 part 1 current and emerging trends ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE TRENDS Introduction The consequences of climate change will continue to be felt around the world for decades to come even after nations begin to successfully and significantly reduce greenhouse gases and other emissions detrimental to the environment Although some nations may experience positive changes as a result of climate change and global warming other areas of the world will see even greater stress on their resources As climate change negatively impacts the developing world – regions already suffering from economic hardship and social stress – pre-existing tensions and instabilities will be even further intensified The competition for resources such as water and food is unlikely to result in state-onstate conflict although internal or inter-regional disputes will possibly erupt among people trying to secure these resources for their survival The quest for energy metal and mineral resources will certainly interest states that want the wealth and prestige that comes from controlling such supplies as well as states searching to fulfill their markets’ demands Although the majority of states will satisfy their resource needs through diplomacy and trade agreements the possibility of aggressive and irrational Figure 4 Convergence of Destabilization Trends Source Realising Britain’s Potential Future Strategic Challenges for Britain p 34 chief of force development 39 the future security environment 2008-2030 responses in the pursuit of self-interest cannot be dismissed Humanitarian missions will probably be mounted in cases where large populations lack basic needs to the point of disaster and stabilization reconstruction missions could possibly be staged if civil unrest and instability deepen to the point of conflict among already distressed peoples Climate Change Climate change is linked both to natural factors and to human activity resulting from economic and demographic growth The carbon dioxide already present in the atmosphere is projected to raise the average global temperature by 0 5ºC over the next few decades 1 Regardless of whether the international community achieves consensus and successfully acts to aggressively lower greenhouse gas emissions climate change is expected to exacerbate the many conditions that cause destabilization and will be felt well beyond 2030 Global climate change poses its own unique geo-strategic risks and opportunities and has significant implications for defence and international security In a scenario where the impacts of climate change are not addressed climate change will have severe consequences including melting polar ice rising sea levels desertification and a decline in crop yields in some regions particularly Africa habitat shifts species extinction and the increasing spread of tropical diseases into temperate zones Rising sea levels and melting glaciers are expected to increase the possibility of land loss and owing to saline incursions and contamination reduce access to fresh water resources which will in turn affect agricultural productivity More frequent and more severe extreme weather events and related natural disasters including storms flooding heat waves and coastal erosion will be aggravated by climate change Changing weather patterns including altered precipitation patterns and unpredictable growing seasons will likely disrupt global agriculture and diminish food security particularly in regions already struggling with food shortages Climate change is expected to bring severe flooding to low-lying countries – whose land is barely above sea level – as extreme weather intensifies seasonal rains tropical cyclones and storm surges The result will be mass migration as people flee their homes While climate change is predicted to bring increased rainfall to already wet regions it will simultaneously make arid regions even drier Food productivity in Africa will probably drop significantly as the loss of arable land to desertification will result in a 50% decline in crop yields The Himalayan glaciers will probably disappear by 2035 which will mean the loss of a major water supply for 750 million people 40 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends in the Himalaya-Hindi-Kush region and in China Some regions however including Canada may experience higher temperatures and longer growing seasons which may could boost agricultural production and allow for the cultivation of new and potentially more profitable crops and tree species that yield economic benefits Certain regions notably Europe could possibly experience cooling 2 Environmental stress and water food shortages caused primarily by natural cycles will increase economic disruption and trigger humanitarian crises between now and 2030 3 The resulting pressures occasioned by migration and the refugee flows of displaced populations have the potential to generate increased ethnic religious or territorial tensions instability and perhaps state collapse These effects will be more pronounced in coastal regions where 75% of the world’s population resides particularly among populations sectors and communities that are already economically or ecologically sensitive to climate variability Although nations with robust economies and well-developed infrastructure will be better positioned to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change such states could possibly find themselves called on more frequently to provide stabilization forces international development assistance disaster relief and or aid to address natural or humanitarian crises resulting from ecological devastation These nations could possibly be besieged with floods of environmental refugees seeking new resources and a more stable environment Deduction 11 Climate change will result in increasingly violent weather patterns drought and natural disasters that will call for military support to assist victims around the world ranging from humanitarian relief to full scale stability operations Impact on the Arctic The continued melting of polar ice is leading to increased human activity and easier access to the planet’s poles which will result in an increased search and rescue demand Canada’s north is expected to be affected by a warmer climate increased competition for decreasing global resources and advanced exploitation technologies The increasing navigability of these northern waters also heightens the potential for illegal trafficking of goods and people in the Arctic Although opportunities for economic growth exist there are security challenges presented by the increased transit of air surface and sub-surface vessels notably with respect to surveillance and monitoring border control law enforcement search and rescue and disaster chief of force development 41 the future security environment 2008-2030 response This traffic also poses serious environmental safety and security threats to the Arctic Archipelago one of the most fragile ecosystems on the planet As the scope of global climate change becomes more widespread the CF will need to consider the effectiveness of military systems capabilities and platforms associated with operating in extreme environmental conditions Canada will have to maintain its vigilance in protecting the peoples resources and ecosystems of its northern territories Deduction 12 As the impact of global climate change becomes more widespread the CF will need to consider the effectiveness of military systems capabilities and platforms associated with operating in extreme environmental conditions Increased access to the Arctic brought about by climate change will have sovereignty security and environmental implications for Canada that will result in increased CF engagement in the Arctic region Impact of UNCLOS Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea UNCLOS coastal states with a continental shelf that extends beyond their 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone EEZ have ten years from their ratification of the Convention to submit a scientific claim regarding the outer limits of their continental shelf to the Commission for the Limits of the Continental Shelf Under UNCLOS coastal states have sovereign rights to explore and exploit the resources in their continental shelves beyond the EEZ Acceptance of a submission by the Commission would establish the full extent of the area over which a state may exercise these sovereign rights A number of countries including Russia Denmark and Canada are expected to make their submissions to the Commission in the next few years While the US has yet to ratify UNCLOS it has already begun scientific work to determine the outer limits of its continental shelf in anticipation of ratification Canada which must make its submission by 2013 estimates that its continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans covers approximately 2 0 million square kilometres twice the size of Ontario roughly half of which is in the Arctic 4 There is a possibility that some states’ claims regarding the outer limits of their continental shelves will overlap prompting some analysts to suggest that competing claims could lead to an escalation of conflict in the Arctic It is expected however that any overlapping claims will be resolved as boundary disputes commonly are through discussions negotiations and or arbitration 5 42 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Another potential area of concern is the increasing accessibility of the Northwest Passage to maritime traffic The melting of the Arctic ice cap could make the Northwest Passage a feasible international shipping route by approximately 2050 significantly shortening the distances between certain destinations in North America Eastern Asia and the western Mediterranean While the less hazardous Northern Sea and Transpolar routes will likely attract the majority of international shipping the Northwest Passage is expected to be increasingly used for shipping to and from destinations in the Canadian Arctic The prospect of a reliably accessible Northwest Passage may bring to the forefront the debate over whether the Passage constitutes Canadian internal waters or an international strait 6 Deduction 13 Worldwide harvesting and exploitation of the ocean’s resources will not only continue in the future but will also intensify to the point where access stewardship and ownership may be possible sources of confrontation There will be greater demand for the maritime surveillance capabilities of the CF and for standing patrols of marine space under Canadian jurisdiction Sources of Competition Water and Food Shortages Current water scarcity will only intensify as climate change exacerbates the dryness of already arid regions Although there is no expectation of state-on-state conflict 7 humanitarian crises will probably ensue as large masses of population not only suffer from a lack of water and a lack of food that needs water for production but also begin migrating in search of relief heightening tension or destroying the delicate balance that exists in neighbouring regions The areas most likely to experience water scarcity are found in North Africa the Middle East Central Asia and China Attempts to force water-sharing agreements or to reroute waterways to satisfy national self-interest are possible 8 Desertification “The degradation of land in arid semi-arid and dry subhumid areas It is caused primarily by human activities and climatic variations Desertification does not refer to the expansion of existing deserts ” Source UN Food and Agriculture Organization States that share common supplies of fresh water will be more prone to rising tension over water quality 9 Downstream riparian nations that have set stringent water quality standards are impacted by the practices of upstream nations and in chief of force development 43 the future security environment 2008-2030 some cases will be forced to process water that does not meet those standards While disputes between friendly states will continue to be dealt with through legal processes states with neutral or negative relations may be tempted to take direct action against populations and or industries that pollute or abuse water supplies For Canada concerns over water will include the protection of its own resources and the stabilization of regions where tensions over water threaten to lead to conflict Closely linked to water shortages are food shortages resulting from soil degradation desertification or droughts The diversion of land to the production of bio-fuels such as corn-based ethanol will also contribute to world food shortages as the amount of land available for growing food is further reduced As food becomes more scarce and in greater demand food prices will soar Not only will there be insufficient food for the world’s population to feed nine billion people by 2050 global agriculture will have to double but millions more will face poverty and starvation because they cannot afford what food is available The angry riots and protests that erupted in Egypt Cameroon Ivory Coast Mauritania Ethiopia Madagascar the Philippines and Indonesia in spring 2008 offer a foretaste of the destabilizing effects of resource scarcity and the pending humanitarian crises that will require intervention to prevent further escalation of instabilities 10 Deduction 14 Sufficient potable water and food – basic life requirements – will remain inaccessible to millions of people particularly in the developing world Developed nations will probably be called upon to provide humanitarian stabilization and or reconstruction assistance Energy Stocks Based on current trends energy consumption by 2030 will have increased by approximately 50% 11 Oil has been fundamental to the development and sustainment of modern economies With increased competition by states for oil and other energy sources the gap between supply and demand will continue to grow This will increase the strategic value of oil and may render consuming economies more beholden to energy producing nations This in turn will probably contribute to significant increases in energy prices and potentially result in an economic slowdown 12 New oil deposits have recently either been discovered or have finally become economically viable to develop These include off-shore deposits in Venezuela deep water deposits off Brazil Arctic oil and the Canadian tar sands development Nevertheless many experts believe that peak oil has been reached 44 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends and that few new reservoirs remain to be found There is also a worldwide shortage of refining capacity Consequently the world will face oil shortages and disruptions rising prices and increased competition The effects of these events will be felt in developed and developing nations alike 13 As supplies become increasingly scarce and in the absence of viable alternatives the potential for oil-related conflict will probably continue to increase In working to secure access to declining oil supplies nations will seek out supply from multiple sources and perhaps through bilateral agreements thereby avoiding the vulnerability that comes with single source dependency A number of nations may find themselves entering into arrangements with nations in unstable regions and perhaps with governments of questionable legitimacy This may lead to unforeseen tensions In the pursuit of access to oil nations with more developed economies will enjoy an advantage over less developed nations a setting that may lead to conflict To help offset shortages and the resulting effects research and development investments will be directed to new sources of energy including coal derivatives hydrogen fuel cells bio-ethanol and nuclear fusion 14 Figure 5 World Energy Demand by Fuel Source Source World Energy Outlook 2006 15 chief of force development 45 the future security environment 2008-2030 Nations that possess nuclear reactors are able to reduce their dependence on oilproducing countries At the present time there are about 435 nuclear reactors in thirty countries and the number of reactors is increasing In the near term it is projected that an additional twenty nations ranging from highly developed to still developing countries are likely to acquire some form of nuclear power generation capability 16 An additional consequence of the proliferation of nuclear reactors in areas of global instability is the possibility that neighbouring states will be inclined to take preventive military action against their rivals The possibility of a neighbour possessing nuclear technology may be sufficient to heighten tension in the region While the wider use of nuclear power may ease pressure on energy stocks increasing security concerns will need to be addressed through the creation of new – and the improvement of existing – international control mechanisms to ensure that nuclear technology is used for peaceful means only Deduction 15 Concerns over rising prices for and access to oil will probably be addressed through diplomatic means but tensions and – even conflict – could possibly arise between states that are pursuing control over dwindling supplies As demand for oil begins to outstrip supply viable energy alternatives will have to be found to run economies and militaries Minerals and Metals Since both developing and mature economies will rely increasingly on nuclear power to meet national energy requirements the subsequent increased demand for uranium will drive prices up Nevertheless the perceived negative environmental and political impact of additional uranium exploration may limit the capacity of supply to meet demand acting as a cost driver and a source of tension For Canada opposition from environmentalists and potential eco-terrorists who are determined to prevent increased uranium exploitation will be a source of tension that may also develop into a threat to security Canada with 30% of global uranium production is the world’s top producer followed by Australia with 20% and Kazakhstan with 10% 17 These three nations account for 50% of the world’s recoverable sources of uranium 18 At the present time the three leading global uranium consumers – the United States France and Japan – account for almost 60% of global demand Although there will be only a moderate increase in the number of nuclear reactors by 2020 a further increase can be expected by 2030 that will increase our reliance on nuclear power as an energy source 19 46 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Tungsten is considered a strategic resource because it is used in the manufacturing of high speed steel for cutting stamping and casting tools and dies alloy steel armour for military applications armour piercing ammunition high temperature coating materials used in jet engines and high-temperature materials used in the construction of nuclear weapons Tungsten was once mined in the United States however environmental concerns and cheaper imports led to a cessation of its extraction there 20 In 2006 China produced 80% of the global tungsten supply 21 With the current market cornered China has the ability to control the price of tungsten and deny access to the mineral As a consequence it is possible that the United States will resume tungsten mining and seek other suppliers Other strategic metals include coltan and cassiterite The extraction of both of these metals has been credited with economically sustaining warring factions in African civil wars Coltan and cassiterite used to produce tantalum and tin respectively are increasingly in demand because of advances in communication and information technology – tin in the pursuit of miniaturization and tantalum for its ability to hold high voltages at elevated temperatures Increased competition and heightened tension would probably result from denied access to these metals Deduction 16 Competition for strategic minerals and metals will slowly increase as technological developments result in increased demand for them Dollar diplomacy and diplomatic pressure could possibly succeed in securing adequate supply and access for the most powerful states Conclusion and Implications for DND CF Climate change will exacerbate existing water and food shortages thus increasing the likelihood of regional instability and ensuing humanitarian stabilization and or reconstruction crises Although climate change will not necessarily have a negative impact on Canada – warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons will be welcome in many circles – Canada must be prepared for the changes that climate change will bring to the Arctic As the polar ice melts there will be an increase in northern security challenges As the Northwest Passage is open for longer periods of time there will be an increase in international traffic through waterways considered to be Canadian The Canadian government will likely call upon CF assets to help with sovereignty patrols search and rescue operations resource protection and the monitoring of international military activities chief of force development 47 the future security environment 2008-2030 The anticipated decline in fossil fuel resources and the simultaneous rise in oil prices will oblige the DND CF to find alternative power sources for its platforms As fuel prices rise the cost of training – let alone the cost of undertaking domestic or expeditionary operations – will become prohibitive and consume an already stretched budget Research and development into alternative fuels need to become a priority The development of viable alternatives to fossil fuels will have revolutionary effects and will ease tension as fewer nations compete for dwindling oil supplies Nevertheless the reduction of oil dependence will not be without negative consequences Supplier nations once wealthy from oil exports will eventually plummet into economic depression and social instability if oil supplies become irrelevant Notes 1 United Kingdom Treasury Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change http www hmtreasury gov uk independent_reviews stern_review_economics_climate_change stern_review_report cfm accessed 8 March 2007 Note that the Stern Review presents an interesting graph projecting the impacts of climate changes entitled Projected impacts of Climate Changes 2 British Cabinet Office Realising Britain’s Potential Future Strategic Challenges for Britain February 2008 p 28 Department of National Defence Strategic Assessment 2006-2007 Ed Ben Lombardi Ottawa Directorate of Strategic Analysis December 2006 pp 97-98 3 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 4 “Oceans and the Law of the Sea” on UN Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea website http www un org Depts los index htm accessed 29 January 2008 5 Craig H Allen ed Maritime Security Project A Stronger and more Prosperous World Through Secure and Accessible Seas Newport Rhode Island US Naval War College 2006 6 Matthew Carnaghan et al “Canadian Arctic Sovereignty” on Library of Parliament website http www parl gc ca information library PRBpubs prb0561-e htm accessed 29 January 2008 “Global Market Brief Canada’s Arctic Potential” on Stratfor Strategic Forecasting Inc website http www stratfor com global_market_brief_canadas_arctic_potential accessed 30 January 2008 7 History shows that wars are not fought over water wars fought for other reasons are sometimes cloaked under the supposed search for water Peter Gleick Water Conflict Chronology http www waterworld org conflictchronology pdf or http www tradeobservatory org library cfm refID 99852 accessed 25 March 2008 Aaron Wolf “Conflict and Cooperation Along International Waterways” in Water Policy 1 2 1998 251-265 8 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme p 27 9 This specifically refers to downstream pollution 10 United Nations “Desertification ” Food and Agriculture Organization http www fao org desertification default asp lang en accessed 19 March 2007 ABCA “Strategic Assessment of the Security Environment 2008-2030 ” p 7 11 Dr Fatih Birol “World Energy Prospects and Challenges ” p 1 International Energy Agency http www iea org textbase papers 2006 birol pdf accessed 26 April 2007 12 Birol “World Energy Prospects and Challenges ” p 3 13 Cameron Leckie “Peak Oil and the Australian Army” in Australian Army Journal 4 3 21-2 24-5 27 Peter Johnston “Oil Security Capacity Woes ” Eds Peter Archambault and Charles 48 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Morissey Strategic Assessment 2005 Ottawa Department of National Defence 2005 p 84 http admpol mil ca downloads Strategic%20Assessment%202005 pdf accessed 26 April 2007 Ibrahim A Al-Mutrif “Global Refining Capacity Shortage One Way Out ” http www arabnews com page 7 section 0 article 103677 d 17 m 11 y 2007 accessed 1 April 2008 Kjell Aleklett “Peak Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries ” Discussion Paper No 200717 Uppsala University Sweden OECD ITF 2007 p 61 Robert L Hirsh et al “Peaking of World Oil Production Impacts Mitigation Risk Management” p 15 National Energy Technology Laboratory http www netl doe gov publications others pdf Oil_Peaking_NETL pdf accessed 17 April 2007 NIC Mapping the Global Future p 12 14 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme p 25-26 International Energy Agency “World Energy Outlook 2006 Summary and Conclusions ” http www worldenergyoutlook org summaries2006 English pdf accessed 07 June 2007 15 International Energy Agency “World Energy Outlook 2006 ” http www worldenergyoutlook com graphics htm accessed 26 April 2007 16 Italy Portugal Poland Belarus Ireland Turkey Iran Gulf States Israel Syria Egypt Tunisia Algeria Morocco Namibia Georgia Kazakhstan Chile Venezuela Nigeria Bangladesh Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Australia New Zealand are all countries where the nuclear power option is under serious consideration “Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries ” World Nuclear Association http www world-nuclear org info inf102 html accessed 8 March 2007 17 “Uranium Production Figures 1997-2005 ” World Nuclear Association http www world-nuclear org info uprod html accessed 8 March 2007 18 Of the world’s known sources Australia has 24 % Kazakhstan 17 % and Canada 9% “Australia’s Uranium and Who Buys It ” World Nuclear Association http www world-nuclear org info inf48 html accessed 8 March 2007 19 In 2007 United States requirements represent 30 % of global requirements France 16 % and Japan 13 % “World Nuclear Power Reactors 2005-07 and Uranium Requirements ” World Nuclear Association http www world-nuclear org info reactors html accessed 8 March 2007 20 Jack Lifton “The Trouble with Tungsten ” Resource Investor 1 February 2006 http www resourceinvestor com pebble asp relid 16627 accessed 8 March 2007 21 Lifton “The Trouble with Tungsten ” chief of force development 49 part 1 current and emerging trends GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS Introduction At first glance it would appear that asymmetric warfare has become the dominant mode of belligerency The growing interdependence of global finance and trade networks has deterred interstate conflict in order to avoid disrupting trade routes or the flow of capital Owing to globalization and the reduced occurrence of war amongst nation states confrontation with non-state actors has been the prevalent form of conflict and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future Nevertheless the possibility of state-on-state conflict will never be totally eliminated As long as there are states there will be the triggers for state conflict economic competition nationalism and national pride raw emotions marginalization and irrational decisions by fallible human leaders As tensions increase so too will the possibility of inter-state conflict 1 Multilateral organizations have been a major element in international relations since the Second World War and they have become a growing phenomenon as nations from diverse regions develop new agreements and initiatives that bring them together as partners The existing hegemonic superpower – the United States – will continue to dominate Nevertheless there are emerging powers whose economic growth and military expansion could challenge the United States’ position especially in Asia and Africa The inter-state relationships in the regions surrounding these larger powers need to be given consideration seeing as many of these areas are somewhat unstable and might attract the attention of existing and emerging hegemonic powers Failed and fragile states are cause for concern because these regions of instability are a potential source of humanitarian and stabilization crisis not to mention potential safe havens for terrorists interested in developing organizing and preparing for asymmetric attacks Multilateral Organizations Multilateral cooperation is and will continue to be the foundation of a stable and peaceful international system The nature and complexity of today’s threats ranging from failed states to terrorism require a coordinated approach and an investment in resources that could never be achieved by governments acting on their own Consequently Canada will have to maintain its contributions to international bodies particularly the UN and NATO since membership in these institutions continues to serve Canadian interests chief of force development 51 the future security environment 2008-2030 Canada might also consider contributing to other organizations perhaps in the Asia-Pacific region and possibly participating in less formal coalitions of like-minded states – the approach used in the international campaign against terrorism Because international and regional institutions have experienced organizational inertia or the lack of consensus because of size some states e g the United States have come to depend increasingly upon multilateralism in the form of coalitions of the willing Deduction 17 Multilateral cooperation will remain essential although coalitions of the willing will arise to challenge the perceived inertia of traditional organizations United Nations During the Cold War the UN saw success in reaching peace settlements developing treaties and international norms and leading humanitarian missions it was less effective however in responding to major or complex crises unless supported by at least one superpower Although it has adapted to the changed security environment by developing such concepts as election observations inspections and international tribunals the six-decades-old rules that govern the structure and activities of the UN are not well-suited to dealing with the current much less the future security environment The UN itself recognizes its limitations and the need for modernization 2 The UN report Strengthening the United Nations Agenda for Further Change articulates the UN Secretary General’s vision for an altered organization A stronger General Assembly an enhanced Economic and Social Council and changes to the Security Council will if pushed through put the UN in a stronger position 3 Despite these issues the UN remains an important organization The UN through its Agencies such as the World Food Program WFP and the World Health Organization WHO has reduced humanitarian suffering through relief interventions and has improved the standard of living through development programs As long as nations continue to contribute to the UN’s resources the relief and development work undertaken by UN Agencies will continue to be of primary importance in the future security environment as its application to crisis situations will be instrumental in helping mitigate and contain humanitarian emergencies 52 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Deduction 18 The effectiveness of the UN in dealing with violent crises will continue to be limited but the organization will continue to play an important relevant role in humanitarian crises North Atlantic Treaty Organization Since its foundation the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO has continuously adapted to a changing security environment 4 While its principal role will remain collective defence NATO will continue to broaden its ambitions relative to nontraditional operations such as stabilization and counter-insurgency missions in order to remain relevant in the absence of a direct conventional threat to continental Europe NATO will also continue expanding its membership and remain open to new European members although most European countries already belong to the alliance which likely heralds an eventual end to expansion 5 However it is probable that the organization will become more politically focused with operations conducted on a case-by-case basis by limited NATO-member coalitions that possess niche capabilities because of differential political risk-aversion considerations Unsuccessful applicants to NATO may be induced to make other security arrangements One result of expansion may be a decrease in NATO’s consensus-based decision-making capacity and the consequent undermining of its operational effectiveness Thus while the addition of new members to the alliance theoretically enhances NATO’s capability to conduct military operations through increases in deployable troops and equipment the increasing asymmetry of its membership on every level of military capability might actually diminish its ability to respond effectively to crises by complicating bureaucratic and administrative processes Deduction 19 NATO will continue to play an important role in Western security affairs in the foreseeable future However it is probable that coalitions of the willing will displace the Alliance on many missions considered politically sensitive or urgent European Union The European Union EU which currently consists of twenty-seven member states despite the recent failure of its proposed constitution has seen its external influence chief of force development 53 the future security environment 2008-2030 increase over the last two decades The EU’s model of economic integration has been largely successful and has served as a model to other integration projects around the globe The bulk of the EU flourishing has come from what it has been able to achieve within the confines of its borders Responsibility for all legislation that pertains to the issues of the Common Market has passed from the hands of individual states to EU institutions as labour and goods move across Europe unfettered by borders 6 Labour standards as well as environmental standards have also risen across Europe as a consequence of integration In sharp contrast to the clear internal successes of the European project the EU’s track record as an international actor is mixed at best The emergence of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy CFSP led to the adoption of the European Security and Defence Policy ESDP In December 2003 the European Security Strategy ESS affirmed EU support for a multilateral international order with the UN playing a central leadership role The intent of the ESS is to support the attainment of UN objectives The ESS also articulated the key threats to European security including international terrorism WMD proliferation regional conflicts fragile and failed states and trans-national organized crime The ESS in line with the 1992 Petersberg Tasks 7 envisions EU military missions that span the spectrum of conflict from humanitarian peacekeeping and peace support operations to combat missions in support of crisis management Despite the progress the EU has made it will not displace NATO as the primary instrument of collective defence in Europe Although the EU seeks the capacity to conduct independent crisis management the ESDP was not formed as a collective defence instrument 8 In some ways this may lead to distinct missions for the EU and NATO the EU taking on European-region missions short of combat and NATO taking on more robust out-of-area missions Moreover the pool of military resources made available by its members corresponds almost exactly to those offered to NATO meaning that European military capacity is not enhanced to any significant degree Finally there is little real interest in actually marginalizing NATO because to do so would also cause US disengagement in European security matters The EU’s role as an international actor may be further limited by the realities of its common market and its population dynamics A declining birth rate coupled to a significant cohort of citizens approaching retirement will have a large impact on Europe’s political and economic future Low birth rates in the majority of European countries will cause continued reliance on migration to sustain the workforce population This fact means that migration will remain a contentious issue in many European countries potentially stoking extreme right-wing political parties as well 54 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends as social unrest in migrant communities unable or unwilling to socially or culturally assimilate or make significant economic gains The dual challenge of declining birth rates and migration of people from economically depressed areas of Eastern Europe will continue to adversely affect their countries of origin Specifically it will cause similar workforce economic and social problems to those creating the demand for immigration in Western Europe Apart from the social stresses of immigration and migration the economic impacts of the “greying” of Europe will have far-reaching consequences The pensioner worker ratio expected to double in most European countries by 2050 will stress a shrinking tax base as fewer workers support more pensioners 9 The likely outcome of this will be large discretionary budget cuts in areas such as defence in order to ensure that European states can maintain expected levels of social welfare and the growing needs of an aging population 10 The failure of the EU to conclude a Europe-wide constitution will limit development and implementation of the ESDP the policy will continue to be hampered by an ad hoc decision-making process It also demonstrates that many Europeans still hold reservations regarding deeper political integration Despite this the main strengths of the EU economic union and more harmonized social and environmental policies will continue to make the EU a useful and powerful organization However complete integration will likely require the passage of multiple generations to truly temper nationalism to the point where deeper political union and a European constitution are possible Deduction 20 The EU will play a growing role in European security affairs but barring the emergence of a direct and clear threat to European security will probably continue to focus more on issues of internal governance than on international security Organization of American States The Organization of American States OAS is of interest to Canada as it is the Western Hemisphere’s principal multilateral forum for addressing democratic values defending common interests and implementing cooperative strategies against poverty terrorism narcotics and corruption It has an active roster of thirty-four member states including Canada and the United States Cuba has been suspended from participation since 1962 The OAS works to establish political stability among chief of force development 55 the future security environment 2008-2030 Central and South American states by promoting democratic values and good governance It has done so by sending special missions to support democratic processes by observing elections by establishing independent courts and by helping to resolve bilateral disputes The OAS also offers training opportunities for young political leaders and the region’s citizens who wish to embrace a greater appreciation for the elements of democracy promoted by free and fair elections respect for human rights the rule of law pluralistic systems of political parties independence of government branches transparency responsible administration freedom of expression and citizen participation In addition to promoting sustainable social and economic development OAS nations also work together to address the security challenges posed by international terrorism drug trafficking money laundering illegal weapons dealing human trafficking institutional corruption organized crime natural disasters poverty disease and environmental degradation The Inter-American Convention Against Terrorism concluded in 2003 focuses on preventing terrorist financing strengthening border controls and increasing law enforcement cooperation The Inter-American Committee on Terrorism facilitates training for port airport customs and border security information exchanges the strengthening of cyber security and the upgrading of identification and travel documents 11 The lack of policy consensus amongst a large group of nations and the persistence of some authoritarian dictatorships may hamper the OAS’s ability to expand and extend its influence region-wide Nonetheless these initiatives are vital in improving social conditions maintaining regional stability and continuing to eliminate potential sources of disenchantment and disenfranchisement Deduction 21 Canada will continue to be interested in and supportive of the initiatives of the Organization of American States since it will ensure greater political and social stability in the region and will continue to be a mechanism for assisting in the prevention of terrorist attacks in the Western Hemisphere Association of South-East Asian Nations Established in 1967 the Association of South-East Asian Nations ASEAN encompasses a region with a population of 500 million and a total trade volume worth $850 billion USD The Association has two aims “to accelerate economic 56 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends growth social progress and cultural development in the region and to promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in the relationship among countries in the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter ” Since 2003 the ASEAN community has consisted of three pillars the ASEAN Security Community ASEAN Economic Community and the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community 12 The ASEAN Community could serve as a strategic partner for Canada and its allies in preventing the spread of conflict throughout the developing world The activities and initiatives of the ASEAN community are aimed at maintaining peace and promoting democracy in the region The Association is in agreement with Canada and its allies concerning the importance of bettering the day-to-day lives of the people living in the region and the need to head off conflicts stemming from discontent and disenchantment Deduction 22 The Association of South-East Asian Nations will continue to play a regional security role by providing a forum for dialogue and cooperation this will probably indirectly enhance the security of the member countries by building economic and cultural relationships Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC forum was established in 1989 to enhance economic growth and strengthen the Asia-Pacific community APEC has twenty-one members who account for 41% of the world’s population 56% of global GDP and 49% of world trade One of APEC’s goals is to eliminate trade barriers and reduce tariffs in the Asia-Pacific region both to increase exports and to improve the economies of its members This organization has also worked to address issues such as health security energy and agriculture in an effort to improve the living standards of its members Canada’s membership in APEC allows for bilateral and multilateral engagement in one of the globe’s largest economic zones 13 Deduction 23 The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will continue to play a valuable role in fostering and maintaining non-security related relationships but its effects on the security environment will be of second order rather than direct chief of force development 57 the future security environment 2008-2030 African Union The African Union AU was established in 1999 with a view to improving the continent’s ability to participate in the global economy and to address social economic and political problems exacerbated by globalization The hope is that member states by adopting joint positions on issues of common concern to the entire continent will strengthen unity sovereignty solidarity and development The AU’s long term goals of addressing the undermining of democratically elected governments ensuring the recognition of the freedom of the press and the rights of opposition parties restoring regional stability and state law to create an environment for investment and preserving human lives are key to ensuring that fragile and failed states do not become centres of humanitarian crisis and havens for terrorists 14 The mandate of the AU is more robust than that of its predecessor the Organization of African Unity OAU in that the body has the authority to intervene when requested to do so by a member state or to intervene pursuant to a vote in the assembly in the case of war crimes genocide and crimes against humanity Given this mandate in conjunction with the formation of the Peace and Security Council the regional body has the structural prerogative to move beyond mechanisms of mediation and political pressure In fact recently the AU has intervened in Burundi Darfur Côte d’Ivoire and the Democratic Republic of the Congo however these initiatives have generated mixed results indicating that a sound interventionist body is not yet a reality 15 A large membership is important as it speaks to the engagement of the whole continent nevertheless it is extremely difficult to achieve consensus on concrete policies amongst fifty-three nations of diverse ethnicity religion geography history economic well-being and political stability Deduction 24 The African Union is a potential entity for contributing to peace prosperity and stability on the African continent Increasing AU capabilities could possibly reduce demand for military engagement in Africa as unrest and instability could possibly be addressed through the AU and through diplomatic and development aid Shanghai Cooperation Organization The Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO is a permanent international organization that was formed in Shanghai on 15 June 2001 by six countries – China Russia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan and Uzbekistan with Mongolia having observer status In 2006 India Pakistan and Iran were also granted observer status 58 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Although the primary aims of the SCO are to strengthen mutual trust and goodneighbourly relations among member states and promote their effective cooperation in political affairs economy and trade it is also highly probable that the overall strategic aim of the alliance particularly for Beijing and Moscow is to curb American influence in Central Asia For Beijing in particular a key goal is to ensure access to the considerable energy resources of the region and to seek markets for its goods outlets for investment cooperation against Islamist terrorist movements and the suppression of nationalistic independence movements that pose a threat to China’s sovereignty and integrity While China opposes Iran’s membership for fear that the SCO could no longer be a vehicle for combating Islamic extremism and the idea of the organization becoming a military alliance Russia seeks both these objectives Russia also foresees full membership for India Pakistan Mongolia Turkmenistan Afghanistan and Iran In Russia’s estimation the SCO’s multilateral model will more effectively combat terrorism than what it perceives as the UN’s approach of unilateralism and ad hoc coalitions From the perspective of Russia’s leadership the organization also serves as a check on China’s intentions and influences in the Central Asian region The continued expansion of SCO membership may eventually create a sizeable block of states that are opposed to the West NATO and the US and its allies This would be particularly troubling if the organization eventually becomes a military alliance as Russia seems to favour One clearly foreseeable result is another East vs West cold war The anti-Western agenda of the SCO would preclude either the EU or the US having friendly relations with the organization and the economic and geographical influence of China and Russia would prevent any expansion of NATO membership into Central Asia region On the other hand the long-term existence of the SCO is not guaranteed since China and Russia’s ambitions in Central Asia gradual encroachment ethnic emigration procurement of raw material by China vs pipeline development and domestic intervention by Russia are mutually incompatible 16 Deduction 25 The continued existence and expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO will have to be monitored closely as the SCO could possibly increase tensions between eastern and western powers chief of force development 59 the future security environment 2008-2030 Existing and Emerging Hegemonic Powers United States No other country currently possesses the power diplomatic social economic and military the range of capabilities and the global reach currently wielded by the United States It is the world’s only superpower with the ability to promote its interests in every corner of the globe and this situation will almost certainly remain unchanged through the period to 2030 However it is expected that due in part to a sense of dissatisfaction with American hegemony other nations will rise as challengers making gains relative to the US as their economies and militaries grow Consequently we can reasonably expect to see the rise of a multi-polar balance of power as regional challengers to US power erode the ability of the US to operate at will The rise of other powers will demand greater international cooperation and negotiation amongst the world’s major states but this will also raise the prospect of large-scale war between states as states rarely cede power to other states willingly or without challenge Peer Competitor to the United States “A state or collection of challengers with the power and motivation to confront the United States on a global scale in a sustained way ” Source Thomas Szayna The Emergence of Peer Competitors pp 7-8 Long-term strategic planners in the United States are primarily concerned with the possible emergence of a new peer competitor – i e a state or coalition of states possessing both the capacity and the desire to challenge American military dominance as the USSR and the Eastern Bloc did during the Cold War There are several states or quasi-states in the case of the European Union whose economic and military potential make them plausible counterweights to American power It is likely that some of these will achieve a level of power sufficient to challenge the United States within a specific region though most will certainly choose not to do so As such countries grow more powerful they will become more assertive consequently it will be more challenging to maintain the peace between them Although it is probable therefore that Western militaries will still see most of their action against non-state actors in 2030 there may be a trend by that time back towards traditional state-on-state conflicts Indeed by 2030 the greatest risk to international stability may be American leadership fatigue and for domestic reasons the United States may decide to reduce its international commitments Such 60 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends a decision would likely increase tension in parts of the world where the US currently serves as the guarantor of stability There is a high probability that the United States will seek to maintain its dominant position To that end it will continue to invest in economic and military growth and leverage strategic alliances Its current plans for military investment far outweigh those of any other nation and its military transformation program is designed to guarantee continued military superiority over any potential security challenge Nevertheless the United States will continue to look for support from its allies particularly given the growth of new regional threats It is ironic therefore that US investment in advanced technologies and the continuous evolution of its military doctrine will challenge its allies’ attempts to keep pace 17 As the technology gap widens between the American military and its primary allies their ability to cooperate will diminish Deduction 26 The United States will retain conventional military supremacy but increasing economic challenges may erode its dominant position Because of its unmatched military capabilities adversaries will focus on asymmetric ways and means of undermining the superpower status of the United States China China’s massive economic power has brought it to the verge of surpassing Japan as the world’s second largest economy which will likely occur around 2015 18 The developed world’s dependence on Chinese products and the massive Chinese investment in US debt securities second only to Japan has assured China’s pivotal position in the global economy A major economic downturn in either China or the US would have massive repercussions for the other side owing to the interdependence of their markets 19 China’s economic growth however has not been without problems most of them on the domestic front Unchecked inflation or a severe economic setback combined with simmering domestic discontent with governance and wealth distribution coupled to the effects of serious environmental degradation would pose a serious threat to the stability of mainland Asia and the global economy As a case in point China’s population trends paired with inadequate governance figure prominently as potential sources of instability In the coming decades the country’s postwar baby boom generation will reach elderhood altering the chief of force development 61 the future security environment 2008-2030 demographic make-up in both rural and urban areas The first generation to be born under China’s one-child policy will reach middle age in this time amplifying the effect of population aging In a society largely dependent on informal family-based care structures and absent vast improvements in pension and health care programs this trend threatens to overburden a shrinking labour pool exacerbate social tension and erode government legitimacy 20 Trends of environmental degradation present still more challenges to governance Urban areas are faced with such problems as poor air quality and over-production of industrial waste while rural areas are faced with soil erosion and shortages of clean water As a result the government will continue to be confronted with the social and political consequences of pursuing policies supportive of economic growth that compromise the integrity of the environment and thus the quality of living of its citizens 21 China’s massive economic growth has enabled the expansion and modernization of its military China’s military has typically possessed quantitative rather than qualitative advantages over potential adversaries’ However recent modernization plans and activities will produce domestically designed and manufactured nextgeneration platforms that while likely continuing to lag behind next-generation Western platforms will close a significant portion of the qualitative gap that currently exists 22 China is striving to develop comprehensive national power based on modern professional forces doctrine and an indigenous military industrial capacity This drive befits a nation desirous of becoming both a regional and global powerhouse China’s military power is tempered by a lack of strong military or diplomatic alliances In the past China has pursued a program of muted diplomacy preferring in most cases to assert its political strength on regional issues such as North Korea’s nuclear program Taiwanese and Tibetan independence and relations with Japan China’s diplomacy has instead focused on offering aid development and investment funding in exchange for diplomatic loyalty generally at the expense of either or both Taiwan and the US Chinese efforts to secure natural resources are also a major goal of these diplomatic efforts The normal pattern of diplomacy which will likely continue in coming years involves China offering states aid and development funding expertise to build but not necessarily operate or maintain infrastructure and some access to domestic Chinese markets in exchange for diplomatic allegiance access to aid recipient country natural resources and access to recipient markets for Chinese investment This “dollar diplomacy” does not conform to Western OECD aid standards and lacks any incentive or requirement to introduce positive political changes aimed at improving governance in the recipient state which for some states can be appealing China has repeated this pattern in Africa Latin America 62 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends the Caribbean and throughout the Pacific where the destabilizing effects are particularly noted The pattern of Chinese dollar diplomacy creates real problems in recipient states since this flood of Chinese funding often upsets fragile economic and political balances in developing regions This has been particularly true in the South Pacific Deduction 27 The economic military and diplomatic rise of China will alter the global balance of power in the coming decades China will be a regional and possibly global challenger to the economic power of the United States and at the very least a regional challenger to US military power in the Asia-Pacific region It is unlikely that the US will quietly accept the erosion of its influence which could possibly lead to increased tensions India India is poised to become a major economic power driven in large part by its vast population that by 2050 is expected to exceed that of China 23 however this will be constrained at least in the short term by low resource availability by an educational system that may not be capable of training a sufficient number of skilled workers and by its efforts to industrialize Security challenges include ongoing tensions with Pakistan over Kashmir an unresolved Indo-Tibetan border dispute with China and Islamic fundamentalist terrorism India’s military has benefited from the acquisition of sophisticated US military technology India has sought to strengthen its ties to the US through such initiatives as participation in the Quadrilateral Initiative a subsequent naval exercise and civil nuclear cooperation It has also made overt efforts to improve defence economic and security ties with neighbouring countries These moves are of major concern to Beijing despite China’s increasingly confident and outward-looking foreign policy in the region and further afield As part of their desire for a multi-polar international system both New Delhi and Beijing are striving to develop comprehensive national power for the purpose of becoming a recognized regional power In the half-century following Indian independence Sino-Indian relations have often been difficult over the past two decades however there has been a thaw between them although some tensions persist Consequently while India’s defence policy has always been shaped by its rivalry with Pakistan New Delhi sees China as India’s greatest long-term potential threat Some of India’s missiles have a much chief of force development 63 the future security environment 2008-2030 greater range than is needed to attack Pakistan which would allow them to hit much of China Nonetheless India’s arsenal of nuclear warheads is much smaller than that of China The 2004 “Indian Maritime Doctrine” further suggests that a truly independent foreign policy requires credible strategic capabilities in the form of a submarine-based nuclear deterrent 24 Although years away from maturity as is India’s goal of a blue-water navy based on three aircraft carriers India’s limited ability to project power is growing Deduction 28 India’s plans for military modernization are ambitious but will take many years to come to fruition Russia Since 1999 Russia has been experiencing an economic revival largely based on its oil and natural gas exports Over that same period Moscow has been working successfully to reclaim a dominant political and security role in its immediate neighbourhood However Russia’s ability to project military power save through strategic nuclear strikes has diminished to encompass only its immediate neighbourhood Unlike the USSR modern Russia is not challenging the world order only the current power distribution Russia has shown concern about its marginalization in a world where the United States is the sole superpower To this end Russia has shown an interest in seeing the EU develop its military capability thereby decreasing its reliance on NATO Over the last decade NATO Russia relations have save a few glaring exceptions generally been more positive as NATO continues to transform from its traditional focus 25 Russia is aware of the challenge of the superpower status of the United States and consequently has aimed to use cooperation with the United States as a means to furthering its own ends Since 2001 emerging global security concerns have given the two states a basis for cooperation Russian leadership believes greater cooperation with NATO and the EU could logically lead to a role for Russia in the management of European security particularly in the “near abroad” 26 Russia’s renewed ability to play a role external to its borders can be attributed to its economic re-emergence The Russian economy spurred on by its energy sector has experienced annual GDP growth exceeding 7% over the last several years as the price of oil and gas has risen 27 The pace of Russian economic growth has not been without domestic ramifications as high inflation as well as unequal income 64 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends distribution continues to plague the Russian economy 28 The decision of the Russian government to maintain artificially low domestic oil and gas prices could have serious political consequences in the future as Russian citizens strain to cope with higher energy prices and continued inflation Another potential source of stress on the Russian economy centres on the sustainability of its energy market While current projections hold that Russia will become the world’s largest natural gas exporter by 202029 its oil and gas sector faces significant challenges Even as greater state control over the energy sector has generated higher revenues through taxes these same taxes have also resulted in less revenue being reinvested by energy producers into infrastructure Investment in oil infrastructure has also been hampered by the strict regulations that the Russian government has placed on foreign investment With some scholars claiming that the current supply of Russian oil exports is nearly exhausted oil and gas supplies may become more difficult to obtain without significant investment in technology and infrastructure 30 Limits on Russian energy production would be problematic for the global economy as Europe is projected to rely on Russia for upwards of 40% of their energy supply by 2015 31 To mitigate this possibility the Russian government will have to enact policies geared towards encouraging energy companies to invest heavily in technology Social and political trends in Russia have been decidedly less encouraging than economic trends Environmental degradation remains a concern as a lack of legislative environmental standards paired with little government enforcement has led to conditions that pose risk to human life and natural ecosystems A lower birth rate paired with the lack of formal migration policy has left Russia unable to sustain the workforce population The government has attempted to rectify the gaps in immigration policy but so far has met with little success As Russia struggles to promote continued economic growth domestic stability and security both within its borders and the near abroad it will likely maintain the current course of cooperating with the west This continuation of policy does not emerge from any pro-western bent rather it is the result of a pragmatic recognition that consolidating leadership in the Russian political arena requires both domestic support and internal credibility This approach may be manifested in continued and even increasing cooperation between Russia and the West at least in the short term 32 However as Russia continues to regain its economic vigour and political influence its needs may change The pragmatic direction of its policy may no longer coincide with the interests of the west leading to policy divergence chief of force development 65 the future security environment 2008-2030 Deduction 29 Wanting to be a player on the world stage again Russia will pursue continued relations with Europe NATO and the United States in order to prevent marginalization and help recreate Russia as at least a regional power For the foreseeable future Russia will not aggressively challenge the United States or its allies Regional Instabilities and Relationships Central and South America and the Caribbean Basin Central America South America and the Caribbean Basin have become increasingly stable over the past number of years as a trend of democratization and reform has taken hold However there are a number of major variables that could result in political instability or localized violence that could destabilize the region One such variable involves territorial disputes both within and across state borders Within numerous Latin American countries the focus on land claims has risen in tandem with the positive trend of democratization and the continued process of settling these claims will remain a key component of fostering stability in the region Relations between states remain fairly good nevertheless despite some latent border disputes33 and tensions between Venezuela and Columbia and Brazil relations between certain states are sufficiently strained to partially drive military modernization and capability acquisition particularly in South America Issues of sovereignty underpin regional politics and are continuing to inform current decisions regarding defence planning and procurement However the production and trade of narcotics by trans-national criminal cartels and gangs remains the biggest threat to stability in the region with repercussions to the security of North America The mainly positive trends in this region mean that the tenuous stability in Haiti represents more of a worstcase scenario rather than an example of a trend but is a useful picture of what could potentially result if the stability of the region would probably look like should destabilizing factors not be dealt with effectively Throughout the region particularly in South America militaries are being modernized both through the purchase of new platforms and professionalization through the adoption or creation of doctrine and improved training and education Particularly with Venezuela Brazil and Chile this modernization involves the purchase of firstclass aviation and naval platforms Military modernization is not a negative trend as professionalized militaries are less likely to become involved in political matters 66 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends although Venezuela’s military remains directly controlled and responsive to the country’s leader The presence of drugs gangs and transnational criminal organizations is a major negative trend in the region Revolving around the growth processing and shipment of drugs powerful networks of gangs and trans-national criminal organizations have been able to take control of poorly or ungoverned spaces in Latin America despite massive US and various host nation efforts 34 Although these criminal organizations have in the past and may possibly again in the future couch themselves in revolutionary language they represent a form of criminal insurgency whose goals are centred on group survival and gaining wealth rather than seizing governance of territory However the control of territory is key for such groups to operate successfully Major problem areas currently include several urban centres in Brazil and rural areas spread throughout Mexico the Central American Isthmus Columbia Jamaica and Haiti 35 The implication for security in the Americas is great Drug flows from Latin America are directed to the North American market but consumption has also risen in Latin America itself Recent saturation of the North American drug market has caused certain locales in Argentina to become processing centres and trans-shipment points for Europe Closely linked to the drug trade is trafficking in arms munitions and humans the latter often forced into prostitution There are strong business and even familial ties that bind gangs from across Latin America and the Caribbean to gangs throughout the major urban centres of Canada and the United States Furthermore the violence that accompanies the activities of these groups has spread to urban centres in North America particularly the Southern US 36 The criminal groups that control the drug trade have a direct interest in undermining governance through intimidation bribery violence and any other means available so as to establish the physical and psychological space required to operate This represents a direct challenge to even the largest seemingly most stable states in the region because of criminals’ ability to undermine the capability of governments to govern and provide the essential services that are the exclusive purview of most governments 37 The consequences of the gang and drug problem are severe and systemic At a macro level there is the potential to push weak states into failed or failing status At a lower level there is the potential to exacerbate existing unlawful migratory and refugee flows 38 which in turn could undermine the ability of a destination state to chief of force development 67 the future security environment 2008-2030 govern territory A potential threat is the exploitation of these flows by extremist terrorist groups as an access point to the US and Canada 39 Another consequence is the potential of the actions of these non-state actors to as a second or third order effect spark state-on-state conflict 40 The potential for conventional conflict in the future must be considered somewhat increased given the limits of traditional sovereignty the trans-national nature of criminal organizations in the region disagreements in policy and the necessity to pursue trans-national adversaries across artificial geographic boundaries This is where the improved military capabilities and criminal organizations intersect as the events on the Columbian-Ecuadorian border of late February 2008 demonstrate there is the potential for the actions of non-state actors to spark conflict between states The consequences of a regional conventional conflict could be enormous and include disrupted trade through the Panama Canal and massive refugee flows into neighbouring states not to mention increased opportunities by gangs and transnational organizations to spread chaos and work with impunity Deduction 30 The existing security environment in Latin America appears benign at first glance but the activities of violent non-state actors will increase possibly causing as a second- or third-order effect limited state-onstate conflict Maritime Southeast Asia and Oceania Maritime Southeast Asia encompasses Indonesia Brunei and the Philippine archipelago 41 Oceania or the South Pacific includes Papua New Guinea the Solomon Islands Micronesia and Melanesia Polynesia Australia and New Zealand Weak states plagued by poor governance challenging economic conditions and social discord populate much of the region In recent years there has been a growth in localized violence political upheaval and criminal activity in places such as the Solomon Islands Fiji Bougainville Papua New Guinea East Timor and Vanuatu Common factors in many of these cases include weak economic growth problematic relationships between state and society inability of governments to deliver essential services fragile institutions and corruption 42 Exacerbating these significant developmental problems is a latent Islamist terrorist threat in Indonesia the Philippines and the Malayan peninsula A major factor in state-to-state relations is the “dollar diplomacy” competition between China and 68 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Taiwan Australia and New Zealand have struggled to reconcile traditional defence requirements geopolitical balancing fiscal demographic and other constraints on capacity with the imperative to help maintain stability in the region Australia as the strongest military and diplomatic power in the region will continue to find its national capacity to deal with the major issues in the region challenged by the shear enormity of geography socio-cultural and ethnic variance in the root causes of the problems significant international commitments and a general lack of US attention specifically in the South Pacific 43 Maritime Southeast Asia and the island states of the South Pacific have been characterized as internally divided and weakly governed among the most impoverished and least developed countries in the world and therefore heavily dependent on foreign aid 44 The social political economic and other root causes of the problems plaguing each individual state are as diverse as the geography that separates the often-tiny polities 45 For example Indonesia is struggling with Muslim extremism specifically with Jemaah Islamiyah JI and affiliated groups separatists in Aceh and Papua and socio-economic problems 46 The government of the Solomon Islands is teetering on the brink of collapse owing to a number of problems including ethnic disputes corruption crime and environmental and economic issues In Fiji a military coup overthrew the government in December 2006 ostensibly to enable it to deal more effectively with corruption racism and other governance issues In the Philippines economics land distribution and Muslim extremism are major issues particularly in the Southern regions of the country where some groups have cooperated with the Indonesia-based JI 47 Despite their seeming similarities each of the problems faced by these countries has a different ethno-social background Notwithstanding the geographic isolation of many of the states in the region a latent threat stemming from their fragility exists nonetheless Trans-national terrorism and trans-national organized crime the latter using human and drug trafficking and financial and passport scams as revenue generators have followed in the footsteps of Chinese business investment in places such as Fiji and Papua New Guinea 48 This is a trend witnessed in many developing regions of the world that lack strong and effective governance Finally the repercussions of the “dollar diplomacy” competition between China and Taiwan have exacerbated ethnic tensions in some areas notably the Solomon Islands and Fiji as Chinese business interests have upset local market balances Worse Taiwan has openly tried to influence the outcome of local elections in the Solomon Islands and Taiwanese money has been linked to both the 2003 instability that led to the multinational Regional Assistance Mission Solomon Islands RAMSI and the 2006 violence that wracked the capital of Honiara 49 chief of force development 69 the future security environment 2008-2030 Maritime Southeast Asia and the South Pacific are viewed as a vital strategic bulwark for Australia and New Zealand 50 In Australia the region stretching from the Malayan peninsula to the Fijian Islands has been described as an “arc of instability ”51 New Zealand has not employed such rhetoric although it shares many of the concerns of its larger more powerful neighbour 52 The major concern for Australia is that diplomatic influence in the South Pacific today could lead to Chinese satellite military bases in the future Such a situation would threaten or breach this strategic bulwark and is a major future military concern for a primary allies in the region Geography still matters and Chinese forces stationed that close to the Australian continent would constitute a direct military threat unknown since 1942 53 Such a situation is not beyond the realm of possibility given declining US presence in the South Pacific and competition for renewable and non-renewable resources between most major countries in the region 54 Deduction 31 Maritime Southeast Asia and the South Pacific will continue to face massive developmental challenges over the coming decades with a number of key areas threatened by Muslim extremism Australia and New Zealand will continue to be challenged by the need to balance great and regional power relationships instability within what they consider their inner strategic arc and the enormity of the geographic reality of the region AND the variance in socio-cultural and ethnic context of state fragility that does not allow for blanket regional stability and development strategies Middle East The Middle East will remain volatile for the foreseeable future Iraq will continue to be a fragmented society with a government that is struggling to achieve legitimacy and self-sufficiency Instability in Iraq and the likely continuation of the confrontation between Iran and the US will require Washington to prolong its military presence albeit in reduced numbers and maintain a high level of financial support for its allies in the region Further Turkish incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan have the potential to escalate conflict throughout the northern tier Given the slim likelihood that the Annapolis Peace Initiative will produce tangible results both Israel and Palestine will continue their struggle to find a satisfactory solution The political crisis in Lebanon will most likely result in either a compromise president or an ongoing political deadlock thus benefiting Syria and Hezbollah The southern tier will continue to experience strong economic growth but it is unlikely that this will offset the 70 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends demographic growth it is experiencing Unemployment particularly among young people will remain high with the expected result being greater social instability and radicalization in the Middle East Iran the world’s fourth largest oil exporter continues to be a cause for concern among the Western powers as it pursues and expands its uranium enrichment projects despite the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council 55 Stability in the Middle East is also heavily impacted by environmental and population trends Twelve of the world’s fifteen water-scarce countries are located in the Middle East and North Africa MENA region making it the most water-scarce region in the world 56 On its own water scarcity is not a sufficient driver for inter-state conflict In fact much progress has been made in generating cooperative strategies for managing demand However when combined with other factors such as population growth the resulting strain on water sources heightens domestic and regional tensions 57 The current youth bulge and the associated future population growth in MENA suggests that the region will see further challenges to the tenuous mechanisms for cooperation Deduction 32 The Middle East will remain volatile for the foreseeable future and current conflicts show little promise of quick resolution Western nations will probably opt for diplomatic assistance rather than engagement in prolonged regional and internal disputes Nonetheless an expansion of American involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts cannot be ruled out if this is deemed to be in the interests of the United States Central and South Asia Central and South Asia is a region in flux with an insurgency in Afghanistan and ungoverned spaces in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas FATA and North West Frontier Province NWFP standing in stark contrast to the steady rise of India’s global influence FSE page 63 Trans-national crime especially narcotics trafficking is a leading regional concern 58 Demographically a “youth bulge” and widespread poverty are endemic to the region and major causes of social and political tension There continues to be a growing regional trend towards radicalized Islam as disaffected Muslim populations turn to more extreme measures to effect political change These socio-political trends coupled with the lack of economic opportunity have helped to sustain a rise in anti-government forces including a resurgent Taliban foreign fighters adhering to a global jihadist ideology drug traffickers and other chief of force development 71 the future security environment 2008-2030 criminal elements and the continuing influence of provincial or local warlords In addition to domestic challenges the region faces increasing interventionism by China India Russia and Iran as they seek to secure access to strategic resources and counter each other’s regional influences 59 In many respects Afghanistan has enjoyed a period of success in terms of development since the ouster of the Taliban regime in 2002 The international community has been instrumental in sponsoring the redevelopment of major infrastructure such as ring roads electrical grids schools and medical facilities These efforts have spurred significant direct foreign investment in the country mainly in the extractive industry sector although there has been some investment in construction agriculture transportation power generation and telecommunications The sum of these undertakings has brought double-digit economic growth since 2002 and this is expected to continue in the near- to mid-term so long as there is no uncontrollable deterioration in the security situation 60 While the country has seen significant success in the past six years in terms of economic development sustained commitment on the part of the international community and continued growth in governance capacity are essential if this progress is to be maintained Crucially the stability or lack thereof of its neighbour Pakistan plays a major role in future Afghan security and development 61 Pakistan remains a linchpin for regional stability in South Asia but there are two major factors influencing Pakistan’s future stability relations with India and the radicalization of domestic politics While the immediate potential for conflict between Pakistan and India appears to be waning the Pakistani use of militants as a tool of foreign policy in both Afghanistan and Kashmir will continue to be a potential cause for confrontation as the two nations jockey for position in the region Moreover while contemporary Indo-Pakistani relations have begun to warm domestic trends within Pakistan may reverse those gains In 2007 the World Bank ranked Pakistan in the lowest tenth percentile for political stability and the country ranked ninth in the 2008 Failed States Index 62 Among the major sources of danger are an increasing population decreasing economic productivity and a degrading of effective governance By 2050 it is estimated that Pakistan’s population will have grown by 147 million people while economic growth will likely continue to stagnate 63 A growing population coupled with increasing economic crisis has limited the ability for central governance structures especially social institutions such as schools to be maintained outside of core areas and increased social pressures in poor or remote areas of Pakistan Increasingly tribal areas in Pakistan are falling under the de facto political control of extremists The erosion of central authority in Pakistan will have 72 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends serious ramifications for regional and global security as the government struggles to retain control of outlying provinces – and its nuclear stockpiles – in the face of trends towards instability The Central Asian states of Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have entered a period of relative economic growth benefiting from being a strategic resource transit link within the region as well as possessing large deposits of natural resources in their own right However while economic opportunity exists environmental degradation from the Soviet era and a lack of infrastructure remain obstacles for long-term economic development This is particularly the case in the Caspian Sea region where desertification and pollution have degraded once vibrant fish stocks and severely impacted local industry Deduction 33 A growing trend towards radicalized Islam and increasingly weak governance structures will continue to threaten the stability of the Central and South Asian region prolonging the need for an international presence in Afghanistan and further eroding central authority in Pakistan Failed and Fragile States Governments in failed and fragile states lack the capacity and or the inclination to perform the basic functions of defending sovereignty ensuring national security and providing for a fair judicial system a physical infrastructure national services and economic management 64 Once a government fails to provide its citizens’ basic infrastructure education and medical needs the population ceases to have any reason to remain loyal to those in power With the absence of effective institutions the lack of rule of law and the corruption of leaders the government loses legitimacy in the eyes of its people Loyalty is easily transferred to tribes warlords mercenaries paramilitary groups guerrillas foreign militaries and any other groups that offer to provide security and meet other basic needs Extreme poverty and armed clashes often spark refugee crises and population shifts as people move in a bid to escape injustice starvation and conflict Domestic instability can spill over borders and destabilize neighbouring countries Humanitarian crises are not unexpected in cases where refugee flows civilian casualties and civil wars make international intervention necessary Organized crime and terrorist networks benefit from these chaotic situations because they are able to operate and recruit with chief of force development 73 the future security environment 2008-2030 impunity desperate individuals welcome any source of income and represent a pool of ready recruits and because national institutions are too weak to drive out illicit organizations such states are ideal safe havens for training and operations 65 Figure 6 The failed States Index Source Foreign Policy com July August 2007 In an effort to identify likely areas of instability various organizations have compiled and analyzed lists of indicators that suggest whether or not a state is in danger of failing 66 Such indicators can be grouped into three broad categories social demographic economic environmental and political military The top indicators for nations deemed at risk of failing completely include uneven economic development mounting demographic pressures de-legitimization of the state and deterioration of public services Also high on this list are human rights violations the presence of refugees and displaced persons and human flight 67 Deduction 34 Based on indicators of instability Sub-Saharan Africa will probably see a significant number of states fail The requests for developed nations – including Canada – to intervene with humanitarian stabilization and or reconstruction missions will probably increase Conclusion and Implications for DND CF The theme of cooperation and conflict underlies the key geopolitical trends identified in this chapter Cooperation will occur within the various multilateral organizations although their capacities for effective action will remain limited owing to their size 74 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends and the absence of consensus The preferred method of organizing intervention forces however will be through ad hoc coalitions of like-minded states acting in their common interests Nurturing and establishing connections with international bodies will be imperative for global awareness Canada and its allies must also pay special attention to the actions and ambitions of countries and organizations with which close diplomatic ties have not traditionally existed Being cognizant of nonallies and foes’ plans and developments are just as important – if not more so – as keeping abreast of allies’ policies and priorities Canada will continue its relationship with the UN and with NATO could benefit from exploring new bi-lateral and multilateral partnerships where in Canada’s interests and should have healthy relationships with like-minded nations from around the world Nevertheless Canada will certainly need to continue close relations with its continental neighbour the United States Hence interoperability with the United States will be an important factor for the CF to achieve where possible and where essential Because of the shared border and the shared continent Canada and its neighbour have mutual security interests that need to be addressed for the safety of the two countries’ citizens for the efficiency of cooperation for the respect of sovereign decisions and policy and for the harmony of continental cohabitation Although asymmetric warfare is presently the prevalent security threat the possibility of state-on-state conflict cannot be dismissed National aspirations regional instabilities and the desire to challenge the balance of power which currently favours the United States are all potential triggers for states to wage war on each other Conflict is also likely to emerge in regions of instability in failed or fragile states or between states that feel a need to assert reassert state power at the expense of regional – if not world – peace Islamist terrorist attacks are a significant threat in the Maritime South-East Asia and Oceania regions as well as South-Central Asia Consequently the possibility of inter-state armed confrontation means that the CF needs to be prepared to address the full-spectrum of conflict not just asymmetric threats chief of force development 75 the future security environment 2008-2030 NOTES 1 ABCA “Strategic Assessment of the Security Environment 2008-2030 ” Futures Support Group March 2008 Draft p 24 National Intelligence Council Mapping the Global Future Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project Pittsburgh Government Printing Office December 2004 pp 14-15 United Kingdom Government The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 2007-2036 London Ministry of Defence Development Concepts and Doctrine Center January 2007 p 67 http www dcdc-strategictrends org uk accessed 7 March 2007 Peter Leahy “Welcome to the Strategic Private” in Defence October 2004 Michael Mazarr “Extremism Terror and the Future of Conflict” in Policy Review March 2006 2 United Nations “About UN Reform ” Reference Reports and Materials Reform at the United Nations http www un org reform about-unreform shtml accessed 24 April 2007 3 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 2007-2036 p 51 4 General retired Klaus Naumann “NATO – An Alliance in Permanent Transformation ” prepared remarks – NDC Rome on 3rd October 2005 http www ndc nato int news sc107 B2 naumann pdf accessed 24 April 2007 5 NATO “Riga Summit Declaration ” Online Library http www nato int docu pr 2006 p06-150e htm#capabilities accessed 24 April 2007 6 The EU was given the jurisdiction to regulate all Common market issues under pillar one of the Maastricht Treaty 1991 European Union Treaty on European Union EU 7 February 1992 http www eurotreaties com maastrichtext html accessed 10 July 2008 7 CDI Military Reform Project “The European Union’s Headline Goals- Current Status ” May 23 2002 http www cdi org mrp eu cfm accessed 10 July 2008 8 The EU outlined the goals of the development of ESDP policy at a summit in Helsinki in 1999 CDI Military Reform Project “The European Union’s Headline Goals- Current Status ” May 23 2002 http www cdi org mrp eu cfm accessed July 10 2008 9 Vaclav Smil “The Next 50 years Unfolding Trends ” 2005 Population and Development Review 31 2 2005 10 In a ten-year study conducted by the Stockholm International Peace Institute Western Europe ranks as the region with the lowest rate of growth in military expenditure Stockholm International Peace Institute “Recent Trends in Military Expenditure ” 2008 http www sipri org contents milap milex mex_trends html accessed 11 July 2008 11 Organization of American States OAS Member States http www oas org documents eng memberstates asp accessed 4 April 2008 12 “Overview Association of Southeast Asian Nations” on Association of Southeast Asian Nations website http www aseansec org 64 htm accessed 6 November 2007 13 “About APEC” on Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation website http www apec org content apec about_apec html accessed 5 February 2008 14 African Union “African Union in a Nutshell” http www african-union org accessed 4 April 2008 African Union Commission Strategic Plan of the African Union Commission Addis Ababa African Union Commission May 2004 15 Liisa Laakso “Beyond the Notion of Security Community What Role for the African Regional Organizations in Peace and Security ” United Nations University WIDER Research Paper No 2005 52 August 2005 16 Albrecht Rothacher “Allying With an Evil Axis The Ambivalent Role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Central Asia ” RUSI Journal 153 1 2008 68-73 17 Department of National Defence Western Defence Trends Ottawa Directorate of Strategic Analysis 2006 p 10 76 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends 18 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme p 44 19 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme p 45 National Intelligence Council Mapping the Global Future Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project Pittsburgh Government Printing Office December 2004 pp 47-48 http www dni gov nic NIC_globaltrend2020 html accessed 6 November 2007 or http www foia cia gov 2020 2020 pdf accessed 11 April 2008 20 Richard Jackson “Population Aging in China An Assessment of the Economic Social and Political Risks ” paper prepared for the Eurasia Group China Task Force Meeting 28 October 2005 http www csis org media csis events 051028_jacksonremarks pdf accessed 8 July 2008 21 Carin Zissis “China’s Environmental Crisis” Council on Foreign Relations 9 February 2007 http www cfr org publication 12608 chinas_environmental_crisis html accessed 10 July 2008 22 http www globalsecurity org military world china index html accessed 11 April 2008 23 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Prospects The 2004 Revision ESA P WP 193 New York UN Populations Division 2005 pg 2 http www un org esa population publications WPP2004 2004Highlights_finalrevised pdf accessed 10 July 2008 24 David Scott “India’s Drive for a ‘Blue Water’ Navy ” Journal of Military and Strategic Studies Vol 10 Issue 2 Winter 2007-08 pp 20-22 available at http www jmss org 2008 winter articles scott pdf accessed 12 June 2008 25 Andrei Kelin “NATO-Russia cooperation to counter terrorism ” autumn 2005 http www nato int docu review 2005 issue3 english art2 html accessed June 17 2008 26 “Near abroad” is a term used to encompass Russia’s neighbourhood including the numerous states that were formerly part of the USSR Mark Smith “Russia and the West ” Camberley Conflict Studies Research Centre July 2002 http www defac ac uk colleges csrc document-listings russian accessed 20 April 2008 27 World Bank “World Bank Russia Report 16” June 2008 http web worldbank org WBSITE EXTERNAL COUNTRIES ECAEXT RUSSIANFEDERATIONEXTN 0 contentMDK 20888536 menuPK 2445695 pagePK 1497618 piPK 217854 theSitePK 305600 00 html accessed 10 July 2008 28 Generations and Gender Contextual Database “Variable Gini Coefficient of Income Distribution for Russia ” http www demogr mpg de cgi-bin databases cdb cdb php vi 203 ci 6 di 2 id 0 accessed 10 July 2008 29 Matthew Burrows and Gregory F Trevorton “A Strategic View of Energy Futures ” Survival 49 3 2007 p 81 30 Leslie Dienes “Observations on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil and the Complexities of Siberia ” Eurasian Geography and Economics 45 5 July-August 2005 pp 391-345 31 Burrows and Trevorton p 81 32 Anna Jonsson “The Nature of Power in Russia and its Impact on the International Community ” Russia After Putin Implications for Russia’s Politics and Neighbours March 2008 http www isdp eu files publications pp 0803Russia pdf accessed 16 June 2008 p 10 33 José Higuera “Turning up the heat Chile Country Briefing” in Jane’s Defence Weekly 9 January 2008 34 Max Manwaring A Contemporary Challenge to State Sovereignty Gangs and Other Illicit Transnational Criminal Organisations in Central America El Salvador Mexico Jamaica and Brazil Carlisle PA Strategic Studies Institute December 2007 Manwaring discusses “generational gangs” which evolve from simple petty criminal activity and control of minor blocks of urban “turf” to more sophisticated organisations with structured leadership and thoughtful use of violence to major organised criminal activities with sophisticated illicit trade activities commercial and political objectives and the capacity to work within systems of criminal alliances 35 Michael Shifter “Latin America’s Drug Problem ” Current History Vol 106 No 697 February 2007 36 Fred Burton and Scott Stewart “Mexican Cartels and the Fallout from Phoenix ” Stratfor com 2 July 2008 http www stratfor com weekly mexican_cartels_and_fallout_phoenix chief of force development 77 the future security environment 2008-2030 37 Shifter p 58 see also Stratfor Mexico Security Memo July 7 2008 http www stratfor com analysis mexico_security_memo_july_7_2008 38 Grayson p 53 39 Grayson pp 56-57 40 This came close to occurring in February 2008 when Columbia conducted military operations within Ecuador’s borders in pursuit of high-level personnel of FARC the major narco-criminal organization in Columbia This violation of Ecuadorian sovereignty sparked a partial mobilization of Venezuelan armed forces in support of Ecuador and significantly increased tensions in the region Ecuador long upset with US anti-drug policies in the region considered heavy-handed and unfair to legitimate agriculture has now refused to renew the lease of a key air station in Ecuador to the US undermining both US prestige and influence and the long-standing anti-drug campaign in Columbia See Inigo Guevara “Columbian raid hits a raw nerve ” Jane’s Defence Weekly 27 March 2008 and Shifter p 60 41 “Maritime South East Asia” is used as a descriptor here for lack of a common term for collective identification of the states identified 42 Hugh White Beyond the Defence of Australia Finding a New Balance in Australian Strategic Policy Sydney Lowy Institute 2006 p 9 http www lowyinstitute org publication asp pid 521 accessed 1 April 2008 43 Frank Frost “Perspectives on Australian Foreign Policy ” Australian Journal of International Affairs Vol 61 No 3 September 2007 p 413 Graeme Dobell “China and Taiwan in the South Pacific Diplomatic Chess Versus Pacific Political Rugby ” Policy Brief January 2007 Sydney Lowy Institute for International Policy http www lowyinstitute org Publication asp pid 533 accessed 31 March 2008 p 9 44 Yongjin Zhang “China and the Emerging Regional Order in the South Pacific” in Australian Journal of International Affairs 61 3 September 2007 376 45 Robert Ayson “The ‘Arc of Instability’ and Australia’s Strategic Policy” in Australian Journal of International Affairs 61 2 June 2007 220 46 Greg Sheridan “Jihad Archipelago ” The National Interest No 78 Winter 2004 2005 Washington D C The Nixon Center pp 73-80 47 Sheridan p 75 also “US Plays Quiet Role in the Philippines ” BBC News online 28 March 2008 http news bbc co uk 2 hi asia-pacific 7316761 stm accessed 31 March 2008 48 Dobell “China and Taiwan in the South Pacific ” pp 6-7 49 Dobell p 11 50 White p 37 51 Ibid 52 Ayson “The ‘Arc of Instability’ and Australia’s Strategic Policy ” pp 220-221 53 Hugh White Beyond the Defence of Australia Finding a New Strategic Balance in Australian Strategic Policy Sydney Lowy Institute for International Policy 2006 pp 36-40 http www lowyinstitute org Publication asp pid 521 accessed 31 March 2008 54 See for example Meryl Williams Enmeshed Australia and Southeast Asia’s Fisheries Sydney Lowy Institute 2007 http www lowyinstitute org Publication asp 714 accessed 31 March 2008 55 Parisa Hafezi “Iran Reveals New Atomic Work Draws Western Rebuke ” 8 April 2008 Reuters Limited http ca news yahoo com reuters 090408 world international_iran_news accessed 9 April 2008 56 Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi Liz Creel and Roger-Mark De Souza “Finding the Balance Population and Water Scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa ” Population Reference Bureau Policy Brief 2002 http www prb org Publications PolicyBriefs FindingtheBalancePopulationandWaterScarcityinthe MiddleEastandNorthAfrica aspx accessed 14 July 2008 p 2 Water scarce countries are defined as those countries with less than 1 000 cubic metres of renewable freshwater per person per year 78 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends 57 Peter H Gleick The World’s Water The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources 2006-2007 Washington Island Press 2006 p 189 58 Tamara Makarenko 2002 “Crime Terror and the Central Asian Drug Trade” Harvard Asia Quarterly 6 3 available at http www ladlass com intel archives files HAQMakarenko3doc pdf UN Office On Drugs and Crime UNODC “2008 World Drug Report” http www unodc org documents wdr WDR_2008 WDR_2008_eng_web pdf pp 45-55 accessed 10 July 2008 UNODC Illicit Drugs Situation in the Regions Neighbouring Afghanistan and the Response of the UNODC Vienna UNODC 2002 59 Roland Dannreuther “Can Russia Sustain its Dominance in Central Asia ” Security Dialogue Vol 32 No 2 June 2001 pp 245-258 Eric McGlinchey “Avoiding the Great Game and Domestic Unrest in Eurasia ” PONARS Policy Memo No 402 December 2005 available at http www csis org media csis pubs pm_0402 pdf accessed 10 July 2008 Olga Oliker and David Shlapak U S interests in Central Asia policy priorities and military roles Santa Monica RAND 2005 available at http www rand org pubs monographs 2005 RAND_MG338 pdf accessed 10 July 2008 60 United Nations Special report of the Secretary-General pursuant to Security Council resolution 1806 2008 on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan United Nations 2008 See United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan http www unama-afg org accessed 11 July 2008 61 For an assessment of the cross-border nature of the Afghan insurgency see International CrisisGroup “Countering Afghanistan’s Insurgency No Quick Fixes ” Asia Report No 123 November 2006 and Johnson Thomas H and M Chris Mason “No Sign Until the Burst of Fire Understanding the PakistanAfghanistan Border” International Security Vol 32 No 4 Spring 2008 pp 41–77 62 The Fund for Peace “Failed States Index” in The Fund For Peace Promoting Sustainable Security http www fundforpeace org accessed 11 July 2008 World Bank “Country profiles Pakistan” http www worldbank org accessed July 11 2008 63 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Prospects The 2004 Revision p 14 64 Jeremy M Weinstein John Edward Porter and Stuart E Eizenstat On the Brink Weak States and US National Security A Report of the Commission for Weak States and US National Security Washington DC Center for Global Development 2004 pp 1 13 http www cgdev org doc books weakstates Full-Report pdf accessed 14 March 2007 Robert Rotberg “Failed States in a World of Terror” in Foreign Affairs 81 4 July-August 2002 130 132 Global Policy Forum “Failed States ” http www globalpolicy org nations sovereign failedindex htm accessed 7 March 2007 Department for International Development Why We Need to Work More Effectively in Fragile States London Department for International Development 2005 pp 5 7 8 http www dfid gov uk pubs files fragilestates-paper pdf accessed 14 March 2007 65 African Studies Centre et al Failed and Collapsed States in the International System 2003 pp 6 13 http www globalpolicy org nations sovereign failed 2003 12failedcollapsedstates pdf accessed 14 March 2007 Rotberg “Failed States in a World of Terror ” pp 128-9 David Carment “Assessing State Failure Implications for Theory and Policy” in Third World Quarterly 24 3 2003 407 409 415 http http-server carleton ca dcarment papers assessingstatefailure pdf accessed 13 March 2007 Weinstein On the Brink pp 10 11 14 15 Robert Dorff “Failed States After 9 11 What Did We Know and What Have We Learned ” in International Studies Perspective 6 2005 23 “The Failed States Index” in Foreign Policy July August 2005 57 60 http www foreignpolicy com story cms php story_id 3098 accessed 14 March 2007 “The Failed States Index 2007 The Rankings” in Foreign Policy July August 2007 http www foreignpolicy com story cms php story_id 3865 page 7 accessed 18 April 2008 DFID Why We Need to Work More Effectively p 5 United States Government United States National Security Strategy Washington DC White House 2002 p 14 http www whitehouse gov nsc nss pdf accessed 13 March 2007 Weinstein On the Brink pp 1 9 10 Failed and Collapsed States p 6 Pinar Bilgin and Adam David Morton “From Rogue to Failed States The Fallacy of Short-Termism” in Politics 24 3 2004 173 66 Jack Goldstone et al State Failure Task Force Report Phase III Findings September 2000 http globalpolicy qmu edu pitf SFIF%20Phase%20III%20Report%20Final pdf accessed 14 March 2007 chief of force development 79 the future security environment 2008-2030 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy “Indicator Descriptions ” Norman Paterson School of International Affairs http www carleton ca cifp descriptions htm accessed 13 March 2007 The Fund for Peace “Failed States Index ” The Fund For Peace Promoting Sustainable Security http www fundforpeace org programs fsi fsindex php accessed 14 March 2007 “The Failed States Index” in Foreign Policy World Bank Group Work on Low-Income Countries Under Stress A Task Force Report 2003 http www1 worldbank org operations licus documents licus pdf accessed 14 March 2007 67 The Foreign Policy Fund for Peace failed state index has identified twelve indicators of instability and each are given a ranking out of 10 For the twenty nations in danger of failing uneven development demographic pressures state de-legitimization and deteriorating public services were most often given scores of 9 or higher Humans rights violations refugee displaced persons and human flight were most often given a score between 8 and 9 for these same countries see The Fund for Peace “Failed States Index” http www foreignpolicy com story cms php story_id-3098 accessed 14 March 2007 80 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Introduction Over time developments in science and technology and the defence-related capabilities from such developments have had a dramatic impact on the outcomes of military operations and the manner in which such operations have been conducted One concept worth noting involves the disruptiveness of both mature and emerging technology Rapid revolutionary and novel scientific discoveries that are transferred or applied by cultures including military business economic or popular in unexpected innovative ways can have the unanticipated effect of disrupting the status quo Advances in science and technology are sometimes unexpected and non-linear and these are capable of triggering revolutionary changes in the way humans adapt manipulate and control their environment 1 A scan of existing developments in science and technology appears to support the hypothesis that automation customization and miniaturization will underpin many of the technological breakthroughs that will contribute to future defence and security capabilities These existing areas of interest include nanotechnology microelectromechanical systems MEMS information systems computing and sensors networking technologies biotechnology new energy power technologies and cognitive behavioural and social sciences These primarily evolutionary developments will enable breakthroughs in machine intelligence organic electronics the mass production of nano-materials molecular imaging and personalized medicine greater access to space and programmable “intelligent” drugs Nevertheless these seemingly positive trends are balanced by the various negative ramifications of these science and technology breakthroughs – namely perverse applications of genetic engineering designer bio-weapons and other unanticipated products of experimentation regulated or non-deliberate Undoubtedly unethical actors will be prepared to profit from unregulated aspects of science and technology Nanotechnology Nanotechnology has diverse applications that will be a key enabler of future Canadian and allied defence capabilities This is also observed in a scan of science and technology futures documents from many nations Nanotechnology deals with matter at length scales below 100 nanometres – about the size of a virus At that level matter takes on unique characteristics and properties different from bulk chief of force development 81 the future security environment 2008-2030 matter These include novel electrical structural and chemical behaviours that will enable the convergence with biological material electronics and cognitive sciences to produce unimagined capabilities in a broad variety of applications Applications that are still in a state of infancy will become important capabilities of the future these include ultra-strong and light materials aerospace and transportation uninhabited aerial vehicles new power battery sources and harvesting technologies ultra-efficient water purification systems advanced weapons including non-lethal nano-electronics small networked sensors paper-flat organic nano-LED displays advanced medical treatments protection of communications information systems and inventions that are cheaper lighter smaller and highly energy efficient Various futures documents predict that defence applications of nanotechnology will see fruition by 2020 mainly in the area of electronics materials In the coming decades nano-devices such as nanobots will emerge in the defence context these would be extremely small swarmed and autonomous machines Other emerging applications may include miniaturized and affordable sensor suites uninhabited combat vehicles virtual reality training and education environments augmented wound-healing compounds brain-machine interfaces highly adaptive clothing and camouflage Deduction 35 Nanotechnology will be instrumental in revolutionizing science and technology developments such as miniaturization thereby altering defence applications for materials processors sensors and human performance Information Computing Technology and Sensors It is likely that computing capabilities and pervasiveness will continue to increase exponentially especially as nanotechnology allows the progression of Moore’s Law by virtue of smaller chipsets containing vastly more interconnections microprocessors and memory Computer footprints will continue to shrink thus affording new capabilities that will have tremendous applications to defence These include prolific and unattended sensing robotics autonomous combat vehicles “constellations” of mini-satellites autonomous networks smart weapons real-time language translators bio-identification and facial recognition and seamless command and control Integrated pervasive and inexpensive computing will allow permanent i e anytime and mobile i e anyplace connection to the internet Some analysts 82 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends speculate that this area will be a major driver of growth for the global economy and will fundamentally change the way people relate to one another 2 Revolutionary supercomputing capabilities will be widely available and support on-demand information requirements Small portable electronic devices will proliferate When outfitted with sensors these systems-on-package could be used as “life-boxes” for the detection of toxic substances including hazardous chemicals or biological agents in the environment food or the human body Dealing with deliberate attacks from “hackers” or other agents will be critical to assuring the protection of such information In this context challenges to privacy intellectual property and civil liberties will emerge as the convergence of information and communication technologies and continues Deduction 36 Developments in information communications computing and sensor technologies are resulting in network-centric concepts and solutions that challenge existing hierarchies Trends in technology will reach a point where computing knowledge access sensing and the increased use of autonomous intelligent systems are omnipresent Biotechnology Advances in molecular biology pharmacology and the burgeoning biotechnology industries will facilitate the convergence of nano and biotechnology enabling targeted drug delivery genetic manipulation in-vivo surgery and advanced high-resolution medical imaging In the coming decades nanotechnology and biotechnology may even be able to modify human body chemistry without recourse to drugs to compensate for sleep deprivation and reduced alertness so as to enhance human performance and survivability Human age spans in wealthy countries will continue to lengthen because of the control of disease control and the eradication of degenerative diseases Projected quality-of-life improvements include bionic implants organic computerized prosthetics and organs memory drugs brainmachine interfaces and a myriad of human performance enhancement technologies Genetically modified foods will become widespread which may have major positive repercussions on a global level with respect to climate change population growth and changes in irrigation capacities and arable land Biotechnology applications will enhance the ability to wage war because of advancements in body protection and human performance Soldiers will probably have access to real-time and transparent chief of force development 83 the future security environment 2008-2030 battlefield vital signs monitoring rapid tissue healing full-spectrum drugs for protection and treatments against designer bio-weapons and agents On the other hand a broader array of adversaries will also have access to new and emerging developments in biotechnology Individuals state-sponsored opponents or nation states will probably not only have the ability to design and insert new and highly virulent bio-weapon strains but they will possibly also have access to extremely effective delivery systems such as micro-uninhabited aerial vehicles Such advances in technology should also enable better detection capabilities both for nanomaterials and bioagents Deduction 37 Convergence of bio and nanotechnology will develop new drug therapies customized treatments organic prosthetics and enhance human performance It is probable that adversaries will exploit these advances in to create more potent biological weapons which will be countered by simultaneous advances in detection capabilities “New” Energy Technologies It is projected that the development of new energy sources will continue driven primarily by market forces and past investments in exploration infrastructure surveying extraction refining and distribution facilities This trend will continue driven by the expanding industrial economies of India and China The relentless demand for fossil fuels will be sustained by existing and newly discovered oil stocks in the Canadian context the Alberta oil sands and their anticipated economic benefits Towards 2030 however new energy sources will begin to emerge as they become more affordable to exploit Such sources include “low energy” nuclear fusion cold fusion solar hydrogen fuel cells tidal and wind energy In the commercial sector there will be strong market incentives and the continuing introduction of environmental “green” legislation for ensuring the maturation of advanced autonomous power sources hydrogen fuel cells renewable energy niche markets bio fuels and portable highly-dense energy-yielding technologies These will be supported by advances in other technology areas like carbon nano-tubes which serve as small and efficient battery storage devices Such technologies will have important applications and utility in meeting the requirements of the future soldier-borne technologies that are expected to emerge with the development of parallel convergent technologies The battle-space will see the introduction of 84 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends various lethal and non-lethal direct energy weapons including the possibility of mobile Electro Magnetic Pulse EMP devices The soldier of the future will also require continuous portable lightweight and high-output energy sources to power such items as active passive camouflage garments C4 medical monitoring sensing robotics and weapons applications Deduction 38 Although slow to emerge the development of new energy technologies will be market driven and should somewhat reduce the demand for oil and fossil fuel worldwide Research and development into more efficient electrical energy generation will allow military forces to function autonomously in remote regions for extended periods of time Cognitive Behavioural and Social Sciences Efforts to understand the human mind both culturally and physiologically will lead to some dramatic breakthroughs in defence and security capabilities Corresponding advances in computing will underpin the future of the cognitive sciences a situation that arises from the computationally intensive nature of exploring the complexities of the human brain It will become possible to do mathematical mapping of social networks which will combine advances in computing with clearer insights into human motivation intent anthropology and humans in social groups Advanced neuronimaging techniques will afford precise localization of cognitive functions mapping a process that will enable a plethora of capabilities including seamless brainmachine interfaces instantaneous language translation and accelerated learning technologies Synthetic intelligence will accordingly become feasible for many applications by 2030 including autonomous combat vehicles in all environments and the ability to predict adversarial intent will become possible Advances in the cognitive behavioural and social sciences will have moral ethical and legal implications and will pose significant policy challenges for western nations Deduction 39 Advances in cognitive and behavioural science may make it possible to overcome traditional human barriers resulting from sustained operations environmental ambiguity and information overload chief of force development 85 the future security environment 2008-2030 Risks of Future Advanced Technologies Predicting technological advances continues to be a highly uncertain endeavour because of the complications of globalization the influence of economies the vagaries of consumer demand and even the potential impact of climate change Notwithstanding this problem there are certain aspects of future technology that will ultimately shape defence and security applications projected capabilities and decisions surrounding their insertion into the battle-space 3 The accelerated rate of technological progress will increase the potential of unintended consequences On the other hand fear of the unanticipated negative impacts of technology may inhibit continued research and development and delay the emergence of beneficial technologies e g past fears surrounding geneticallymodified foods and more recently fear concerning the health risks associated with ingesting or inhaling nano-particles during their manufacture or utilization As societies become dependant and to a certain extent over-reliant upon certain technologies e g cellular devices they become increasingly vulnerable to disruption whether intentional or unintentional The increase in information arising from the pervasiveness of computing will strain human and societal decision-making abilities The rapid pace of technological change and the abundance of information resulting from the growing presence of computers may overwhelm decision-makers with a flood of data and information This represents an additional vulnerability that will require improvements in physiological cognitive and decision-making sciences that will align information with function The emergence of technological capabilities in unstable regimes and developing economies will narrow the technological advantage currently enjoyed by “industrial technological” nations This problem will be further perpetuated by an increase in industrial espionage and organized crime The growth in artificial intelligence capabilities e g “agents” could be exploited by adversaries so as to disrupt critical infrastructure and societies Consequently authorities and militaries will find it increasingly challenging to authenticate electronic information and or protect infrastructure Owing to the pervasiveness of computing and information these adversaries will have access to new means of acquiring sensitive and previously protected scientific and technological information thus leading to the proliferation of CBRN and other advanced weapon systems As surveillance capabilities increase in response to continued terror threats privacy and human rights as well as moral ethical legal and cultural standards will be challenged Technological advances will be apportioned unevenly around the globe In some regions societies will see 86 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends benefits while in other regions with challenges imposed by economic disadvantage climate change religious barriers and unstable regimes these benefits will be barred discouraged or bypassed thereby widening the gap between “have” and “have-not” nations As demonstrated by improvised explosive devices in Afghanistan and Iraq and the use of commercial aircraft in the attacks of 9 11 adversaries will not necessarily require access to advanced technologies but can simply use existing and conventional technologies e g explosives on order to generate catastrophic effects on society Rapid obsolescence will continue at a non-linear rate rendering the period between the introduction of a new technology and its obsolescence shorter and shorter This will challenge defence procurement plans and budgets in advanced nations while allowing less advanced societies to skip the updating of legacy systems For example the implementation of cellular telephone networks in emerging regions has enabled them to bypass the installation of landline systems altogether Conclusion and Implications for DND CF Trends in science and technology are often characterized by innovation and rapid change The fact that many technologies are commercially available to friend and foe alike however also has potentially serious consequences Historically science and technology have contributed significantly to the development of defencerelated capabilities and they will continue to do so in future In the past advances in science and technology were largely driven by the massive investments of national governments in their military programs Future advances in science and technology will be driven by the massive investments by private and multi-national companies Given global access via the Internet to future science and technology the military advantage derived from the effective integration and exploitation of this science and technology will belong to whoever is best able to acquire integrate and employ emerging science and technology It might be possible for traditional “have-not” nations and non-state actors to gain significant influence and equal footing with long-established military powers through the acquisition of commercially available technological hardware The pursuit of low-tech solutions by adversaries could also neutralize the advantages offered by sophisticated advanced weaponry Another issue particularly challenging to traditional western militaries concerns the fact that asymmetric adversaries are not necessarily constrained by the same moral legal ethical or policy considerations It is imperative therefore that DND CF develop the ability to clearly recognize early on in the development cycle the potential for chief of force development 87 the future security environment 2008-2030 new science and technology to contribute to military capability – both their own and the capability of their adversaries – and that they address the issue of periodically updating their military capability with new science and technology in a timely and effective manner Accelerating technical obsolescence needs to be anticipated New technologies and the application of networking and information concepts will challenge hierarchical structures and necessitate organizational change The exploitation of new technologies will create policy challenges particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence and biotechnology Science and technology developments could also result in a new arms race and bring about adversarial dominance This underscores the critical importance of innovation and the rapid exploitation of new technologies DND CF must be capable of recognizing the potential of new and emerging science and technology developments for both Canada its adversaries There are serious consequences associated with falling behind the capabilities of those adversaries who are able to leverage the benefits of emerging science and technology developments likewise there are also risks associated with falling behind the capabilities of one’s allies and thereby endangering interoperability Can DND CF afford the capital costs of keeping up with the technical capabilities of military allies A better question would be can DND CF afford not to A balance will have to be found between costs and capabilities The ever-expanding realm of opportunities offered by science and technology developments necessitates that DND CF be both imaginative and proactive in this area Informed imagination is required to understand how science and technology advances could be employed in a conflict situation by Canada and its potential adversaries Consequently DND CF must stay abreast of science and technology developments including those on the open market that may have an impact on defence and security If it is to maintain or regain the upper hand DND CF will have to stay ahead of adversaries’ science and technology developments develop imaginative offences and anticipate problems using counter-measures Advances being made in nanotechnology information technology biotechnology new energy technology and cognitive sciences will necessitate policy revision and formulation to regulate application in Canada and to address the consequences of adversaries’ unfettered application of these technological advances Research should continue into alternative and or “green” fuels efficient energy generation smaller footprints and means of operating more remotely autonomously and for extended periods of time Because funding is limited in small and middle power 88 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends nations participation and exploitation opportunities might be increased through collaboration with academia the private sector or international partners both civilian and military Nations should also ensure that they have sufficient resources invested in monitoring and analyzing research programs and developments and potential impacts undertaken by friend and foe alike In order for the DND CF to take full advantage of science and technology advances bureaucratic impediments will have to be removed procurement processes accelerated and streamlined and moral legal ethical and policy challenges resolved NOTES 1 Jared Diamond Guns Germs and Steel The Fates of Human Societies New York Norton 2005 Neal Porter The Emergence and Future of Defence Technologies From Stirrups to Satellites DRDC TR-2004004 Ottawa Defence and Research Development Canada Ottawa 2004 2 To have detailed information on technology radar and its various roles in all disciplines of Defence and Security refer to Schilthuizen S and F Simonis Nanotechnology Innovation Opportunities for Tomorrow’s Defence Eindhoven Sweden 2005 3 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme pp 61-63 chief of force development 89 part 1 current and emerging trends MILITARY AND SECURITY TRENDS Introduction To say that the future security environment of the post-Cold War period is more complex than previous eras is not to deny the complexity of past wars and diplomatic relations Rather it is simply meant to illustrate the impact of globalization – greater connectivity and complexity – on international relations and national survival in a world that is no longer characterized by two dominant blocs of states with opposing ideological perspectives The security environment of today and tomorrow contains a multitude of potential threats adversaries and actors with divergent motivations that are not limited to simple political theories In addition to states with contrasting philosophical and ideological outlooks including rogue states that regularly act outside the norms of international laws and protocols Canada and its allies will also be challenged by the activities of malignant non-state actors such as trans-national criminal organizations terrorist groups and violent religious extremists In modern warfare the adversary is more likely to be a non-state group hidden within a larger population than a well-equipped traditional military Adversaries will be harder to identify their actions will be less conducive to anticipation or deterrence and they will be more likely to employ asymmetric tactics than risk a conventional head-on confrontation Non-State Actors The influence of Non-Government Organizations NGOs has been steadily growing over the past decade The vast majority of NGOs are beneficial working to achieve goals that are positive Individual NGOs vary according to their purpose but their continuing involvement in areas marked by crisis and tension has obliged governments to improve their coordination Moreover globalization has made the work of NGOs and their effects more prominent Given the public’s heightened interest in humanitarianism and the increased interest of governments in stabilizing the security environment the number of NGOs working in area of crisis and conflict areas will probably rise over the coming decades NGOs will also continue to require a relatively secure environment in which to conduct their operations which in some cases can be assured by maintaining a position of neutrality It is possible however that many groups will be forced by the nature of some conflicts to rely on governments or private security firms to provide this security while avoiding any direct affiliation with those organizations Although NGOs have traditionally avoided chief of force development 91 the future security environment 2008-2030 close relationships with the military components of operations they will probably have fewer qualms about associating with the diplomatic and development elements of a given mission 1 Potentially problematic non-state actors include but are not limited to such entities as militias warlords local defence groups rebel groups radical ecological and religious organizations terrorist groups criminal organizations and private military firms These non-state actors are expected to play a larger role in the future security environment and their presence will further complicate traditional military operations primarily because they operate outside the international laws and norms governing the use of force by which state militaries are bound Thus such instruments as the traditional laws of war prescribed by the Geneva conventions would only end up constraining the actions of state actors in a conflict The inability of failed or fragile states to ensure the security of their citizens is expected to increase the complexity of future operating environments by causing a proliferation of armed groups 2 Meta-national A company that “builds a new kind of competitive advantage by discovering accessing mobilizing and leveraging knowledge from many locations around the world ” Source Yves Doz et al From Global to Meta-national How Companies Win in the Knowledge Economy p ix A growing feature of the complex security environment of the future will be the rise of the meta-national corporation The place and by extension the nation state where the meta-national is located is relatively inconsequential since its strength will be derived from its ability to identify and leverage knowledge labour and raw materials wherever they exist Since the meta-national will by definition operate outside of a traditional geographically bound base of operations it will also frequently operate outside national or even international laws The presence of these entities in operational theatres may further complicate existing crises This will be particularly true if these meta-nationals employ private military firms to protect their interests Private military firms – which are used not only by meta-nationals but also by governments militaries and NGOs – will become increasingly important players in operational theatres There is also a growing tendency in the developed and the developing world to employ armed civilians to perform some of the security or military functions previously provided by military personnel The fact that these organizations operate outside of international law and that their members are civilians raises troubling legal and ethical questions for traditional militaries that operate alongside or against such entities 3 It will also be difficult – but often necessary – to distinguish combatants from non-combatants and to understand the complicated relationships between all the relevant actors 92 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Deduction 40 Future operations will find the CF working amongst with and against a diverse array of other armed groups such as private military contractors militias armed followings bandits criminal syndicates gangs and insurgents Additionally the CF and its allies will also need to work with NGOs who will be increasingly present in future theatres of operation whenever possible to help achieve desired ends Asymmetric Warfare It is anticipated that malignant non-state actors will regularly adopt asymmetric means to circumvent conventional military strengths and take advantage of weaknesses Asymmetric threats and asymmetric techniques in warfare can include the use of conventional weapons in unexpected ways the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by non-state actors and rogue nations the exploitation of non-military technologies and platforms in a manner incongruent with the original design and the regular use of deception and surprise against military and civil targets Asymmetric threats can also be of the low-tech variety such as improvised explosive devices assassination ambushes and the use of graffiti to pass messages Non-state actors will likely target the civil sectors of state adversaries by attacking such targets as critical infrastructure including power distribution systems bridges electronic information and banking systems in an effort to undermine a state’s legitimacy leadership and governance structure Terrorist groups and non-affiliated sympathizers will likely target civilian business and government computer networks as a means of disrupting normal societal behaviour in the targeted regions Cyber-attacks offer an adversary maximum anonymity and a low risk of personal injury The infrastructure required to conduct such attacks is relatively small which makes this type of operation extremely attractive Malicious cyber activity can have political and economic consequences The overall sophistication volume and degree of coordination of these attacks have increased which means that there will be a continuing demand for improved protection and countermeasures 4 Asymmetric warfare is not new although certain specific methods of attack have emerged only recently New means of aggression will be found as technology continues to evolve Asymmetric warfare does not preclude or replace more conventional methods of attack Actually these two forms of warfare should not be considered as chief of force development 93 the future security environment 2008-2030 separate and mutually exclusive since all types of tactics could possibly be employed in the same conflict and perhaps at the same time in a hybridized fashion Hybrid wars can be fought by both state and non-state actors and may incorporate conventional capabilities irregular tactics terrorist acts and criminal disorder 5 Deduction 41 Adversarial non-state actors will seek to overcome an advanced military’s strengths through employing such means as irregular warfare the acquisition and use of Weapons of Mass Destruction and the disruption of electronic information infrastructures through cyber attacks Asymmetric tactics will also be viable options for state adversaries Terrorism Terrorism is a tactic used by individuals groups or states as part of a larger strategy to intimidate and coerce state governments or societies Spectacular terrorist attacks call attention to their perpetrators and their causes and may help them win the support of potential sympathizers Terrorism is most often used to strike at civilian targets which normally have limited means of self-defence 6 Because the state is theoretically the sole possessor of force successful terrorist attacks undermine the legitimacy of governments by exposing their weaknesses or their limited ability to respond The aim of terrorism is to cause sufficient societal psychological trauma either through a single attack or multiple attacks over time to force policy changes or specific actions by the affected government s Various groups and states holding a broad range of political and religious ideological perspectives have used terrorism throughout history as a means of achieving their desired ends Terrorism “The threat or use of physical coercion primarily against noncombatants especially civilians to create fear in order to achieve various political objectives ” Source Bard O’Neill From Revolution to Apocalypse Insurgency and Terrorism p 33 Terrorist tactics employed in the past have included assassinations bombings hostage-takings kidnappings hijackings and sabotage Typically the specific method chosen will attempt to exploit a perceived psychological weakness within the adversary Given this situation it is impossible to set limits on how terrorist groups will adapt new or old technology to attain their desired ends Over the coming decades the tactics of terrorism will continue to evolve in tandem with changes in 94 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends technology the availability of weapons the political environment and in response to preventative measures taken by governments Security enhancements to public transportation systems may discourage attacks but will also encourage terrorists to search for other targets such as power generation facilities The proliferation of technologies and weapons the expansion of the internet and the growth of trans-national links associated with globalization have all made it easier for would-be terrorists to communicate recruit train and launch attacks with little regard to state borders These changes have only strengthened the traditional network-based cell structures favoured by terrorists and other malignant groups This will probably reduce the efficacy of certain traditional countermeasures such as targeting leadership and make such organizations extremely difficult to penetrate due to the absence of direct physical linkages At the same time advanced communications technologies and the global news media have created a worldwide audience for terrorist events As a result terrorism in the age of globalization has become a cheaper and more effective tool than in the past Finally there are proven links between terrorist groups and trans-national criminal networks despite outwardly divergent goals which demonstrates the truth of the proverb “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” 7 Deduction 42 Countering terrorism is primarily a political and legal challenge but the trans-national nature of this threat means that militaries will probably be called upon in certain circumstances to assist civil authorities and will certainly be faced with the effects of terrorism in operational theatres Proliferation of Weapons Conventional Arms The proliferation of advanced conventional weapon systems is often sought by developing countries that perceive Western style militaries as a source of prestige and status The funds that are available are often spent on acquiring cruise and ballistic missiles submarines and advanced fighter aircraft even if the buyers ultimately lack the doctrine to employ these systems effectively or even perform basic maintenance Nevertheless the deterrence value of advanced weapons systems can seriously affect a decision to enter a region engage in a military operation or cause a coalition or government contemplating intervention to think otherwise chief of force development 95 the future security environment 2008-2030 In the future irregular forces such as insurgents or ethnic militias will also have greater access to more sophisticated weaponry and technology Items such as nightvision goggles and global positioning system GPS devices are already commercially available as is access to satellite imagery This represents a significant narrowing of the gap between developing and Western militaries Today’s technical advantages will become less critical in determining tomorrow’s success in combat In most cases doctrine that enables the proper employment of sophisticated weapons systems will continue to be a major military advantage It is foreseeable that a non-state group will be able to develop and absorb doctrine that will challenge conventional militaries in ways not commonly seen such as Hezbollah did during the 2006 war with Israel CBRN Chemical biological radiological and nuclear CBRN threats include the intentional spread of a biological virus such as smallpox or chemical agent such as Sarin gas and the explosion of a radiological dispersal device to spread radioactive material CBRN weapons are often referred to as Weapons of Mass Destruction WMD or Weapons of Mass Effect WME The threat of such a weapon falling into the hands of an adversary can be disruptive and costly as all such threats must be dealt with as if they are real The possession of such weapons provides tremendous power The overriding fear in the future is that WMD WME will find their way into the hands of extremists and eventually be threatened or employed against civilian populations Various protocols and conventions have been put in place aimed at limiting the spread of both the weapons themselves and the technologies that create them Nevertheless despite these efforts many countries have tried to build or acquire nuclear weapons over the past two decades and several others have successfully done so The possession of radioactive materials in itself allows for the production of “dirty bombs ” Chemical and biological materials are widespread and the production or deployment of such weapons requires far less technology equipment and technical expertise than the development of a nuclear device thus making the acquisition of such devices even more appealing Novel Technology Weapons that postpone the decision to use deadly force will play an increasingly important role in asymmetric warfare In such conditions the requirement to delay the use of deadly force long enough may possibly permit a situation to clarify itself and determine if it is really necessary to use such force Emerging technologies that 96 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends will enable such scenarios may become operationally and technically feasible in the near future For example transportable equipment that directs a beam of high power electromagnetic waves could be used to distract or disperse individuals in crowds or disrupt and destroy electronic devices computers sensors navigation aids and communication devices at a distance of hundreds of metres Precision weaponry such as laser-guided munitions will also permit action to be taken against discrete targets with significantly fewer unintended consequences allowing force commanders to minimize collateral damage and unintended loss of life 8 Non-lethal capabilities which can be applied to a given target in moderation may also be considered a type of precision weaponry and can be used to minimize collateral damage while managing the escalation of conflict Though developed primarily for non-combat operations such as crowd control non-lethal capabilities may see increased use in combat operations For instance a variety of technologies including heat- or sound-based weapons air-burst munitions and anti-traction material can be used to temporarily disable a target without causing permanent harm 9 Given this option military commanders will be in a better position to apply force selectively in line with strategic requirements which may involve minimizing collateral damage or winning the hearts and minds of a skeptical population Future mines will also incorporate new capabilities These will include electronics and microcomputers with improved signal and logic processing firing mechanisms with reduced power requirements modern signal processing and sensitive sensors to expand threat radius and improve target discrimination resistance to countermeasures unconventional shapes anechoic coating on mine cases to reduce mine target strength wireless or acoustic remote control links or networked sensors longer ranges and improved guidance during attack for propelled-warhead mines The distinction between mines and torpedoes is becoming increasingly blurred Rising and mobile mines and encapsulated torpedoes fall between the traditional categories and will be difficult to evade escape or jam Mines surveillance sensors or surveillance networks could be integrated into a defensive system capable of tracking and attacking intruders Mine fields could possibly consist of a smart network of sensors linked to a few mobile warheads Uninhabited vehicles are becoming more reliable more sophisticated and less expensive Unmanned Underwater Vehicles UUVs are seen as an increasingly likely threat to maritime security in the future Low-cost UUVs are increasingly attractive affordable and desirable as platforms for illegal activities such as drug smuggling and terrorism UUVs are now manoeuvrable and intelligent enough to carry out sophisticated operations and could conceivably be used to plant mines and conduct chief of force development 97 the future security environment 2008-2030 other operations against high value assets Similar to the likely proliferation of UUVs in the future small tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UAVs are also highly affordable easy to operate relatively stealthy owing to their small size and silent operation and capable of conducting intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance operations or aggressive missions at long ranges UAVs will perform tasks that would otherwise put humans in harm’s way hence they can be used within range of an adversary’s weapons with greater impunity UAVs are ideal for approaching threats and their related targeting systems and disrupting information systems This may include combined stand-in and standoff jamming with the latter being delivered either by UAVs or unattended ground sensors Deduction 43 The increasing commercialization of weapons will allow some developing nations and non-state actors to acquire inexpensive and sophisticated military capabilities Hence Canada and its allies will be confronted by a mixture of conventional CBRN and novel technology weapons in the hands of a variety of state and non-state actors thus necessitating that Canada be able to apply the full spectrum of capabilities even against non-state actors Military Use of Space The commercialization of space refers to the use of outer space to generate profit Commercial spaced-based activities include satellite navigation satellite imaging weather monitoring space transportation and entrepreneurial space communications such as satellite radio and television In the future security environment the commercialization of space means that many of the technologies employed by advanced militaries e g GPS satellite imaging and satellite communications will also be available to adversaries on the market In addition advanced militaries could possibly find their space-based assets targeted by an adversary intent on either blinding them prior to an attack or denying them their space-based technological advantage As nations become more dependent on space-based assets and as the commercial sector continues to invest in outer space the defence of space will become of increasing interest The revolution in information technology is resulting in a growing dependence on space-based systems and communications and is a point of vulnerability for western nations Canada included Data capture and protection represents a key challenge in securing a common and complete operating picture and both depend on air space 98 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends and cyberspace superiority While space-based assets confer a distinct advantage for modern Western militaries these militaries are also vulnerable if adversaries interfere with these assets The technology required to reach space and disrupt damage or destroy an object with a stationary orbit such as a satellite is far less sophisticated – and expensive – than the amount of investment required to create a full communications network 10 Any comprehensive C4ISR command control communications computers intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance capability will have some space-based component The defence and security implications of such development include the appearance of increasingly lower-cost convergent technologies for exploiting space as a platform Nations with emerging technologies will be able to consider space-based missions owing to the narrowed technological gap and the decreasing costs Combining dual-use civilian communication systems with weather and climate monitoring geophysical monitoring and high-resolution reconnaissance systems and weapons will further augment the viability of successful space-based missions Projected technological advances in space include lightweight small size 1 kg satellites with multiple imbedded convergent technologies e g nanostructured materials power sources camera and sensing suites These satellites will be launched from low-cost sites located in diverse geographic regions and will be deployed in groups or swarms This is a particularly attractive option for nations with large landmasses where ground-based or conventional aerial reconnaissance methods are expensive and incomplete Deduction 44 Modern nations will have a stake in protecting space-based assets and will need to maintain robust and redundant capabilities that anticipate the loss of at least some current competitive information technology advantages Interstate rivalries and conflict in the future will probably extend into space and even non-state actors and some less developed nations will probably be able to access and use assets in this environment thus eroding the exclusive advantage currently possessed by modern militaries Conclusion and Implications for DND CF The security environment of the post-Cold War era is populated by a plethora of potential threats adversaries actors such as traditional state actors and benign NGOs and problematic or malignant non-state actors such as irregular forces chief of force development 99 the future security environment 2008-2030 mercenaries meta-nationals and private military firms Asymmetric warfare will be the tactic of choice for those who want to exploit state vulnerabilities and avoid direct confrontation with conventional armed forces and the bounds of national and international law Proliferation of weapons among state and non-state actors is expected and will likely empower an increasing number of potential adversaries Technology defines part of the future threat environment While much of today’s emerging technology and ideas are being developed in the West imaginative and often very different approaches have been employed by potentially hostile cultures to develop their military requirements This technology is often disseminated to other unfriendly states or groups posing a challenge to the capabilities of Canada and its allies Equally significant is the imaginative use of existing technology in ways not envisaged by their original developers for purposes inimical to Canadian objectives With the proliferation of military and security threats the level of uncertainty and unpredictability for DND CF has increased Canada’s defence team could be called to go anywhere at any time and into any physical terrain Furthermore DND CF must be prepared for missions across the full spectrum of operations It must be capable of conducting and countering conventional as well as asymmetric tactics It must be prepared to fight states and coalitions as well as non-state actors It must also be prepared to share the battlefield with a broad range of unconventional forces and DND CF must itself be prepared to work with a variety of partners – be they allied militaries other government departments or NGOs Notes 1 World Bank Definition “Categorizing NGOs World Bank Criteria ” Duke University Perkins Library http docs lib duke edu igo guides ngo define htm accessed 24 April 2007 2 DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 3 Peter W Singer “Outsourcing War ” Foreign Affairs 84 2 March April 2005 119-132 Patrick Toyne Sewell “Private Security Companies The Reasons Why ” Military Technology 31 3 March 2007 60-62 4 Michael Vitas Cyber Attacks During the War on Terrorism A Predictive Analysis Hanover NH Institute for Security Technology Studies at Dartmouth College 2001 http www ists dartmouth edu analysis cyber_a1 pdf accessed 26 April 2007 United States Army Training and Doctrine Command Cyber Operations and Cyber Terrorism DCSINT Handbook No 1 02 Fort Leavenworth Kansas Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence 2005 http www fas org irp threat terrorism sup2 pdf accessed 26 April 2007 5 Frank Hoffman Conflict in the 21st Century The Rise of Hybrid Wars Arlington Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 2007 pp 7-8 28-29 6 Bard O’Neill Insurgency Terrorism From Revolution to Apocalypse 2nd ed Revised Washington DC Potomac 2005 p 33 7 Allan Castle Trans-national Organized Crime and International Security University of British Columbia Institute of International Relations Working Paper No 19 November 1997 100 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends 8 “What’s New with Smart Weapons” on GlobalSecurity org website http www globalsecurity org military systems munitions intro-smart htm accessed 30 July 2007 9 “Non-Lethal Weapons” on GlobalSecurity org website http www globalsecurity org military systems munitions non-lethal htm accessed 30 July 2007 10 David W Pendall The Promise of Persistent Surveillance What Are the Implications for the Common Operating Picture Fort Leavenworth Kansas The US Army Command and General Staff College 2005 Colin S Gray Another Bloody Century Future Warfare London Orion Books 2006 pp 300-312 General T Michael Moseley “The Nation’s Guardians America’s 21st Century Air Force CSAF White Paper” United States Air Force 29 December 2007 pp 5-6 chief of force development 101 part 1 current and emerging trends CONCLUSIONS Emerging geopolitical economic and social environmental and resource science and technology and military and security trends all have profound implications for Canada DND and the CF Greater external pressure and increased demands for defence capabilities coupled with future personnel and resource constraints will require creative leadership and adaptive responses for addressing future challenges Future Security and Operating Environment The future security environment will be characterized by potential state-on-state conflicts by ever-evolving asymmetric threats by non-state actors and rogue states and by social economic environmental and resource problems that could possibly lead to instability Although states recognize that economic well-being international trade and nuclear weapons are major deterrents to state-on-state conflicts tensions rising from economic social and resource competition will always exist and could possibly motivate attacks on fellow states Asymmetric attacks by non-state actors or smaller discontented states have proven to be an effective means of enabling weaker powers and entities to push their agendas on the world stage The future will be replete with increasingly creative sophisticated and injurious asymmetric attacks on both military and civilian including infrastructure economic and iconic targets The continued existence of failed and fragile states will mean that such ungoverned and poorly governed regions will continue to serve as safe havens and provide recruits for terrorist and criminal organizations This will also mean that such regions could possibly descend into chaos thus requiring humanitarian stabilization and or reconstruction missions to ameliorate the security situation Poverty unemployment the devastating effects of climate change and resource scarcity will probably worsen and generate instability that may lead to humanitarian or stabilization crises as impoverished regions struggle with mass migration displaced populations and competition for food water and other resources Given this future security environment the battle-space of the future will necessitate operations at home or abroad in physical or cyber engagement spaces in urbanlittoral areas or in extreme terrains e g jungle desert or arctic climates – all of which may involve the use of conventional and asymmetric means and weapons The defence team of the future can expect to be tasked across the full spectrum of operations on both domestic routine contingency sovereignty and expeditionary missions humanitarian stabilization reconstruction combat that call for both conventional and asymmetric capabilities chief of force development 103 the future security environment 2008-2030 Future DND CF Roles and Missions Canada in particular faces a litany of security concerns The CF’s first priority is to protect Canada and Canadians at home Its second priority is defending North America in cooperation with the United States Both of these missions involve supporting the prevention of domestically-generated attacks the maintenance of border security and the conducting of continental defence missions Cyber threats and potential attacks from space are increasingly conceivable in the present and future security environments Of particular concern to Canada – both now and in the future – is the melting of the polar ice in the Arctic The increased transit of aircraft surface vessels and sub-surface vessels presents new security challenges especially in terms of border control environmental threats and disaster response Canada will have to remain vigilant in protecting the peoples resources and ecosystems of its northern territories Domestic routine and contingency operations might involve assisting civil authorities in responding to natural disasters cyber attacks terrorist attacks crises in urban centres threats to critical infrastructure pipelines power grids industry roads and bridges ports of entry risks to health and food systems or CBRN attacks As the competition for resources around the world intensifies Canadian resources such as energy minerals fresh water and fish stocks will require greater protection The CF will need the capacity therefore to ensure improved national surveillance Owing to the potential for an increase in domestic threats DND CF as a whole needs to become more integrated within the domestic response community – in particular the security and intelligence sectors The future security environment will require a level of domestic integration among agencies that does not exist at the present time In addition to being ready to defend Canada the CF must be globally deployable to austere urban and littoral regions beset by conflict or disaster International operations could possibly involve humanitarian relief non-combatant evacuation policing and constabulary roles which currently falls outside of the CF’s mandate reconstruction stabilization missions or high-intensity combat Information operations cyber or CBRN attacks by terrorist and non-state organizations conventional threats – all are potential elements of current and future expeditionary operations Consequently the CF of the future must be a multi-role combat capable force that can perform a broad range of tasks and operate in all engagement spaces land maritime air space cyber and cognitive The CF must continue working to become a joint interoperable and integrated force and must have the capacity to work in an environment where there are non-state actors and NGOs 104 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends The Changing Face of Canadian Public Opinion The Canadian public’s attitude toward defence spending and foreign policy cannot be expected to remain unchanged between now and 2030 Just as public opinion currently varies across Canada’s age groups geography and ethnicities so too will public opinion be affected by younger generations’ reaching voting age and by new immigrants who express their experiences in the votes they cast One cannot assume that because Canadians support DND CF’s missions and capabilities today they will support the government in allowing DND CF to pursue these same interventions and policies tomorrow Immigration will change the face of the Canadian voting public By 2011 almost all labour force growth will be derived from immigration While roughly 20% of Canadians currently belong to a visible minority and almost 60% of these minorities are from Asia and the Middle East 1 these levels will probably continue to increase through to 2030 The life experiences of immigrants before their arrival in Canada will undoubtedly shape the particular foreign policies they will support or oppose People who have relocated from unstable and troubled areas may want the Canadian government to intervene with humanitarian stabilization and or reconstruction missions On the other hand people who are fleeing war-torn countries or oppressive military regimes may oppose the use of the Canadian military in their country of origin In addition new Canadians and younger Canadians may not necessarily feel the same level of commitment to traditional allies US UK and organizations NATO as Canadian citizens who experienced the Cold War from a Western Hemisphere perspective The voters of tomorrow – today’s young Canadians and immigrants from diverse backgrounds – will probably have different attitudes toward and expectations of the DND CF in the future These opinions will have to be taken into consideration in making decisions on policy organizational structure recruiting procurement and deployment Working in a Complex Security Environment The conflicts that occur in this complex security environment will involve geopolitical social ethnic religious ideological economic resource environmental science and technology military and security drivers Hence it will not be possible to successfully prevent and or resolve disputes solely with military power because addressing security the threats that underlie instability and conflict involves addressing issues and problems in all the constituent parts of society In developing lasting solutions military power will only be one component among many – for creating and chief of force development 105 the future security environment 2008-2030 maintaining security – but it will not be the lead component Hence humanitarian crises human security needs and counter-insurgency operations in the future will require harnessing all the instruments of Canada’s national power governance diplomacy development defence and security forces legal institutions and law enforcement trade and commerce economic development education health social services negotiation skills reconciliation processes and institution building This will have to be applied in a comprehensive and coordinated fashion in order to achieve the desired effects – the resolution of dissatisfaction the elimination of conflict and the restoration of peace 2 Furthermore an integrated defence team can expect to operate in an increasingly networked environment in the future where coalition partners will include more than allies’ military elements national and international government departments agencies and NGOs will be an important part of future partnerships 3 Deliberate engagement and active cooperation will require a concerted effort on the part of all players The goal will be to achieve a certain effect – peace and stability – by using the most effective means possible Hence before allies can decide how best to work together on coalition operations each country’s government must define the division of labour amongst the instruments of national power to ensure that the appropriate department takes the lead that all available assets skills and personnel are used to the greatest effect and that there is no duplication of effort Deduction 45 A complex future security environment will demand a comprehensive integrated adaptive and networked focus in the application of government policy Implications for DND CF Meeting the challenges of the future security environment will require contributions from all instruments of national power achieving the desired effects will require the participation of and cooperation with allied defence teams other government departments the private sector and where applicable non-governmental organizations this is commonly being referred to as the Comprehensive Approach among Canada’s allies An integrated focus will be required at the institutional level across a number of organizations this will involve the use of governance policy and legal mechanisms to enhance the synergies among cooperative entities working toward resolving a common complex situation To reap the benefits of team-based 106 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends complex problem solving there must be a trust mechanism to ensure that resources and information are shared in a transparent and effective manner To this end DND CF and its defence and security partners must be adaptive to changing situations and find means of creating a more networked focus in order to benefit from the strengths and capabilities of all potential contributors to the solution including nongovernmental entities All future concept development must incorporate the requirement for an integrated adaptive and networked focus The Integrated Capstone Concept ICC will outline how the DND and the CF will need to operate in the future It will have to reflect the need for the CF to operate within the larger defence team working alongside other government departments with allies in coalitions and in tandem with non-governmental organizations The mix of ever-present conventional threats and the ever-increasing number of asymmetric threats arising today and in the future demand more than a military response Other government departments and non-governmental organizations must contribute to – and often take the lead in – prevention intervention stabilization reconstruction and capacity-building in regions of instability The complexity of not only maintaining readiness to respond to conventional threats but also of effectively combating capable non-state actors operating in austere urban and littoral battle-spaces will continue to strain conventional forces and call for new capabilities and new approaches In both domestic and expeditionary taskings the defence team of the future will need both conventional and counterinsurgency capabilities DND CF will also need to be able to respond to CBRN or cyber attacks Whether at home or abroad intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities will remain essential in maintaining situational awareness in a world where sensing technology is becoming increasingly pervasive and universally available Communications will remain essential in ensuring command and control Given Canada’s extensive coastline and the fact that over three-quarters of the world’s population live in littoral areas the defence team of the future will have to be able to deliver maritime effects Furthermore due to Canada’s vast size and the great distances that separate it from likely theatres of operations strategic lift and transport capabilities are essential The broader spectrum of potential partners for both domestic and international operations will also increase the need for interoperability amongst civilian and military contributors Clearly the complex future security environment will demand a comprehensive integrated adaptive and networked focus in the application of national intent chief of force development 107 the future security environment 2008-2030 Notes 1 Government of Canada Immigration in Canada A Portrait of the Foreign Born Population 2006 Census Ottawa Statistics Canada 2007 pp 7 9 http www12 statcan ca english census06 analysis immcit pdf 97-557-XIE2006001 pdf accessed 17 April 2008 2 Peter Gizewski and LCol Michael Rostek Toward a Comprehensive Approach to CF Operations A JIMPCapable Land Force Ottawa Defence Research and Development Canada Draft Technical Memorandum September 2007 pp 1 3 United Kingdom Ministry of Defence The Comprehensive Approach Joint Discussion Note 4 05 Shrivenham Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre January 2006 pp 1-2 3 Gizewski Toward a Comprehensive Approach pp 5 17 DCDC The Comprehensive Approach pp 1 7 12 108 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends APPENDIX 1 SUMMARY OF DEDUCTIONS Economic and Social Trends 1 While globalization will bring greater economic prosperity to more nations the gap between rich and poor nations and individuals could possibly widen Economic disparity will be a source of tension and potential conflict 2 Developed nations will find it in their best interest to pursue diplomatic solutions for the protection of economic investments trade and transportation routes however aggressive responses to threats to trade or economic wellbeing are always a possibility 3 Protection of both continental and international trade routes from disruption will be essential to Canada’s economic well-being Because of the transnational nature of maritime trade the CF could possibly be asked to provide increased surveillance and other resources to keep potential threats away from vulnerable ports and transportation routes and to respond to threats that find their way into Canada’s transportation infrastructure system 4 The mass movement of large segments of people is destabilizing and may result in civil unrest regional clashes or humanitarian crises that require response and resolution through the diplomatic development and or defence instruments of developed nations 5 The urbanization of the world’s populations will continue The failure of the megalopolis in the developing world will increase the risk of disease pandemic and humanitarian crisis and will also accentuate the increasingly urbanized nature of conflict and the need for urban warfare capabilities 6 Nations will have to be prepared to respond to the consequences of the global outbreak of infectious diseases 7 Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia are regions where instability and inequality stemming from extreme poverty could possibly require humanitarian and or stabilization missions chief of force development 109 the future security environment 2008-2030 8 Religious extremism will continue to be motivated by narratives founded on disagreement with secular and pluralistic social and governance models The simplicity of these narratives will continue to attract followers across the globe threatening Canada and its interests at home and abroad 9 Youth bulges and high unemployment will continue to characterize the demographic profile of the developing world and will act as a root cause of regional and international instability 10 Aging Western populations will be challenged to find recruits to sustain defence and armed force structures as competition for labour will occur worldwide in the private public and defence sectors especially in Canada Environmental and Resource Trends 11 Climate change will result in increasingly violent weather patterns drought and natural disasters that will demand military support to assist victims around the world ranging from humanitarian relief to full scale stability operations 12 As the impact of global climate change becomes more widespread the CF will need to consider the effectiveness of military systems capabilities and platforms associated with operating in extreme environmental conditions Increased access to the Arctic brought about by climate change will have sovereignty security and environmental implications for Canada that will result in increased CF engagement in the Arctic region 13 Worldwide harvesting and exploitation of the ocean’s resources will not only continue in the future but will also intensify to the point where access stewardship and ownership may be possible sources of confrontation There will be greater demand for the maritime surveillance capabilities of the CF and for standing patrols of marine space under Canadian jurisdiction 14 Sufficient potable water and food – basic life requirements – will remain inaccessible to millions of people particularly in the developing world Developed nations will probably be called upon to provide humanitarian stabilization and or reconstruction assistance 15 Concerns over rising prices for and access to oil will probably be addressed through diplomatic means but tensions and – even conflict – could possibly arise between states that are pursuing control over dwindling supplies As 110 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends demand for oil begins to outstrip supply viable energy alternatives will have to be found to run economies and militaries 16 Competition for strategic minerals and metals will slowly increase as technological developments result in increased demand for them Dollar diplomacy and diplomatic pressure could possibly succeed in securing adequate supply and access for the most powerful states Geopolitical Trends 17 Multilateral cooperation will remain essential although coalitions of the willing will arise to challenge the perceived inertia of traditional organizations 18 The effectiveness of the UN in dealing with violent crises will continue to be limited but the organization will continue to play an important relevant role in humanitarian crises 19 NATO will continue to play an important role in Western security affairs in the foreseeable future However it is probable that coalitions of the willing will displace the Alliance on many missions considered politically sensitive or urgent 20 The EU will play a growing role in European security affairs but barring the emergence of a direct and clear threat to European security will probably continue to focus more on issues of internal governance than on international security 21 Canada will continue to be interested in and supportive of the initiatives of the Organization of American States since it will ensure greater political and social stability in the region and will continue to be a mechanism for assisting in the prevention of terrorist attacks in the Western Hemisphere 22 The Association of South-East Asian Nations will continue to play a regional security role by providing a forum for dialogue and cooperation this will probably indirectly enhance the security of the member countries by building economic and cultural relationships 23 The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will continue to play a valuable role in fostering and maintaining non-security related relationships but its effects on the security environment will be of second order rather than direct chief of force development 111 the future security environment 2008-2030 24 The African Union is a potential entity for contributing to peace prosperity and stability on the African continent Increasing AU capabilities could possibly reduce demand for military engagement in Africa as unrest and instability could possibly be addressed through the AU and through diplomatic and development aid 25 The continued existence and expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO will have to be monitored closely as the SCO could possibly increase tensions between eastern and western powers 26 The United States will retain conventional military supremacy but increasing economic challenges could erode its dominant position Because of its unmatched military capabilities adversaries will focus on asymmetric ways and means of undermining the superpower status of the United States 27 The economic military and diplomatic rise of China will alter the global balance of power in the coming decades China will be a regional and possibly global challenger to the economic power of the United States and at the very least a regional challenger to US military power in the Asia-Pacific region It is unlikely that the US will quietly accept the erosion of its influence which could possibly lead to increased tensions 28 India’s plans for military modernization are ambitious but will take many years to come to fruition 29 Wanting to be a player on the world stage again Russia will pursue warmer relations with Europe NATO and the United States in order to prevent marginalization and help recreate Russia as at least a regional power For the foreseeable future Russia will not aggressively challenge the United States or its allies 30 The existing security environment in Latin America appears benign at first glance but the activities of violent non-state actors will increase possibly causing as a second- or third-order effect limited state-on-state conflict 31 Maritime Southeast Asia and the South Pacific will continue to face massive developmental challenges over the coming decades with a number of key areas threatened by Muslim extremism Australia and New Zealand will continue to be challenged by the need to balance great and regional power relationships instability within what they consider their inner strategic arc the enormity of 112 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends the geographic reality of the region and the variance in socio-cultural and ethnic context of state fragility that does not allow for blanket regional stability and development strategies 32 The Middle East will remain volatile for the foreseeable future and current conflicts show little promise of quick resolution Western nations will probably provide diplomatic aid as opposed to engagement in prolonged regional and internal confrontations Nevertheless an expansion of American participation in conflicts in the Middle East cannot be dismissed it if is deemed to be in the interests of the United States 33 A growing trend towards radicalized Islam and increasingly weak governance structures will continue to threaten the stability of the Central and South Asian region prolonging the need for an international presence in Afghanistan and further eroding central authority in Pakistan 34 Based on indicators of instability Sub-Saharan Africa will probably see a significant number of states fail The requests for developed nations – including Canada – to intervene with humanitarian stabilization and or reconstruction missions will probably increase Science and Technology Trends 35 Nanotechnology will be instrumental in revolutionizing science and technology developments such as miniaturization thereby altering defence applications for materials processors sensors and human performance 36 Developments in information communications computing and sensor technologies are resulting in network-centric concepts and solutions that challenge existing hierarchies Trends in technology will reach a point where computing knowledge access sensing and the increased use of autonomous intelligent systems are omnipresent 37 Convergence of bio and nanotechnology will develop new drug therapies customized treatments organic prosthetics and enhance human performance It is probable that adversaries will exploit these advances in to create more potent biological weapons which will be countered by simultaneous advances in detection capabilities chief of force development 113 the future security environment 2008-2030 38 Although slow to emerge the development of new energy technologies will be market driven and should somewhat reduce the demand for oil and fossil fuel worldwide Research and development into more efficient electrical energy generation will allow military forces to function autonomously in remote regions for extended periods of time 39 Advances in cognitive and behavioural science may make it possible to overcome traditional human barriers resulting from sustained operations environmental ambiguity and information overload Military and Security Trends 40 Future operations will find the CF working amongst with and against a diverse array of other armed groups such as private military contractors militias armed followings bandits criminal syndicates gangs and insurgents Additionally the CF and its allies will also need to work with NGOs who will be increasingly present in future theatres of operation whenever possible to help achieve desired ends 41 Adversarial non-state actors will seek to overcome an advanced military’s strengths through employing such means as irregular warfare the acquisition and use of Weapons of Mass Destruction and the disruption of electronic information infrastructures through cyber attacks Asymmetric tactics will also be viable options for state adversaries 42 Countering terrorism is primarily a political and legal challenge but the transnational nature of this threat means that militaries will probably be called upon in certain circumstances to assist civil authorities and will certainly be faced with the effects of terrorism in operational theatres 43 The increasing commercialization of weapons will allow some developing nations and non-state actors to acquire inexpensive and sophisticated military capabilities Hence Canada and its allies will be confronted by a mixture of conventional CBRN and novel technology weapons in the hands of a variety of state and non-state actors thus necessitating that Canada be able to apply the full spectrum of capabilities even against non-state actors 44 Modern nations will have a stake in protecting space-based assets and will need to maintain robust and redundant capabilities that anticipate the loss of at least some current competitive information technology advantages 114 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends Interstate rivalries and conflict in the future will probably extend into space and even non-state actors and some less developed nations will probably be able to access and use assets in this environment thus eroding the exclusive advantage currently possessed by modern militaries Conclusions 45 A complex future security environment will demand a comprehensive integrated adaptive and networked focus in the application of government policy chief of force development 115 part 1 current and emerging trends APPENDIX 2 METHODOLOGY Research into the future security environment is assuming increasing significance for all military force developers because of the uncertainty of the post-Cold War era and the rapidity of technological social and political change The approach to futures research1 taken by the FSE document is based on an informed methodology that is shared by Canada’s allies where literature research trend and driver identification analysis and wider consultation with subject matter experts are combined The FSE applies the Delphi Method of futures research which includes an environmental scan of trends extrapolation of which phenomena will likely endure over a specific period of time and a cross impact analysis of how various simultaneously occurring trends would likely impact one another 2 Writing the document itself was the responsibility of the Directorate of Future Security Analysis DFSA is a directorate within the Chief of Force Development This task was not done in isolation however it was the product of extensive research into authoritative sources and of broad national and international consultations As a first step the DFSA writing team3 reviewed the future security environment assessments of allies other nations and international organizations as well as the operating concepts of the militaries with whom the CF is currently working Through a standing contract with an international strategic intelligence company which employs some 200 analysts and a global network of over 800 sources 4 DFSA received global forecasts on the risks of violence and political upheaval Unclassified intelligence updates are delivered on a daily basis and DFSA has access to a wide range of detailed strategic analysis information After this extensive literature review and wide consultation with stakeholders the DFSA writing team selected the trends out to 2030 that would not only be the most enduring but would also be most representative and applicable to the Canadian context either directly to the nation or indirectly through its allied partners and coalitions Throughout the writing and revision process DFSA conducted an extensive series of consultations both inside and outside the Department of National Defence and Canada The feedback obtained via this consultation process helped refine the deductions and highlighted other important trends worthy of inclusion On the international level Canada has access to its allies including the twenty-six members of NATO thus DFSA was able to glean perspectives and insights from fellow force developers and security environment analysts DFSA also reached out to security environment experts in academia and industry As a key member of the Environmental Scanning Practice Group which is comprised of thirty-seven Government of Canada chief of force development 117 the future security environment 2008-2030 departments and agencies DFSA was able to leverage this pool of expertise and obtain insights and feedback from these other government departments Internal DND stakeholders have offered their reviews and comments on the different FSE drafts issued between November 2007 and July 2008 This document was also sent for comments to the Capability Development Board CDB in November 2007 and the Joint Capability Requirements Board JCRB in February 2008 In December 2007 January 2008 and March 2008 DFSA invited civilian and uniformed members from various sectors of the defence community including all JCRB members to participate in consultations concerning the FSE’s content deductions implications and military “so-whats ” An external review was completed in February 2008 by Dr James Fergusson University of Manitoba Dr Richard Gimblett Naval Officers Association of Canada Peter Padbury Policy Research Initiative and Mark Ronald Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre of the UK Ministry of Defence Between November 2007 and July 2008 the feedback obtained from CDB JCRB ADM Policy external reviewers and all the other consultations was meticulously reviewed and incorporated into the final draft Notes 1 Futures research’s “primary objective is to help decision-makers gain a better understanding of the potential consequences of present and future decisions by developing images of alternative futures ” World Future Society “Editorial Policy ” Futures Research Quarterly http www wfs org frq htm accessed 25 March 2008 2 Darlene Weingand “Futures Research Methodologies Linking Today’s Decisions with Tomorrow’s Possibilities ” 61st International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions Annual Conference August 1995 3 The DFSA writing team has consisted of Rachel Lea Heide DRDC-CORA Defence Scientist Strategic Analyst Charles Morrisey DRDC-CORA Defence Scientist Strategic Analyst Neil Chuka DRDC-CORA Defence Scientist Strategic Analyst Shaye Friesen DRDC-CORA Defence Scientist Strategic Analyst Steve Hughes DRDC Ottawa Defence Scientist Len Goodman DRDC Ottawa Defence Scientist David Lehman ADM Pol Policy Officer Nicole Alie Research Intern Tom Conway Research Intern Nicole Waintraub Research Intern LCol Chris Kilford former A DFSA LCol Stefan Koestner German Air Force exchange officer Major Bertram Frandsen LCdr Lorne Hartell and LCdr Ramona Burke Further research and writing was contributed by David Rudd DRDC-CORA Defence Scientist Strategic Analyst with CANOSCOM COST and Paul Dickson DRDC-CORA Defence Scientist Strategic Analyst with CAS Directorate of Air Strategic Planning as well as by the DRDC-CORA Defence Scientist Strategic Analyst team in ADM Policy Directorate of Strategic Analysis Nebojsa Bjelakovic Brian Greene Peter Johnston Tony Kellett Ben Lombardi Anton Minkov Don Neill and Christina Yeung 4 Exclusive Analysis Ltd http www exclusive-analysis com 118 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends APPENDIX 3 GLOSSARY TERM DEFINITION USAGE Adaptive Able to adjust or modify fittingly Adaptability is necessary for survival in a complex world Canada1 Asymmetric Threat A threat by a opposing party to attack a nation by avoiding Canada2 strengths exploiting vulnerabilities and employing unexpected or unusual techniques a threat relating to the potential use of dissimilar means or methods of circumventing or negating an opponent’s strengths while exploiting his weaknesses in order to obtain a disproportionate result Asymmetric Warfare Warfare aimed at disrupting and weakening a nominally superior opponent to the point of strategic exhaustion Biotechnology A broad term generally used to describe the use of biology Australia4 in industrial processes such as agriculture brewing and baking Recently the word has come to refer more to the production of genetically modified organisms or the manufacture of products from genetically modified organisms C4ISR Command control communications computers intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance Canada5 CBRN Chemical biological radiological or nuclear Canada6 CBRN Weapon A weapon designed to release chemical biological or Canada7 radiological material or result in a nuclear detonation Challenge Apolitical conditions with the potential to have a negative impact on national interests Complex Consisting of multiple interrelated adaptive and Canada9 evolutionary parts where each part can potentially affect all other parts not easily predicted or replicated Comprehensive Of large scope inclusive Comprehensive Approach The term Comprehensive Approach CA is used in a MNE 511 broad generic sense to describe the broad scope of actions undertaken in a coordinated and collaborative manner by national and multinational military forces host-nation and other civilian government agencies international and intergovernmental organizations non-governmental organizations or the private sector to achieve greater harmonization in analysing planning managing and evaluating coalition interventions in complex contingencies and emergencies Conflict A fight struggle or clash between alliances individual Canada12 States or factions within a State This can be over social economic resource environmental diplomatic or security drivers Where the opposing parties resort to the use of weapons the conflict becomes an armed conflict chief of force development ABCA3 Canada8 Canada10 119 the future security environment 2008-2030 TERM DEFINITION USAGE Conventional Forces Forces having the capacity to conduct operations without using nuclear biological or chemical weapons Canada13 Desertification The degradation of land in arid semi-arid and dry sub- United humid areas It is caused primarily by human activities and Nations14 climatic variations Desertification does not refer to the expansion of existing deserts Driver A factor determined to be an important contributor to United change affecting the future States15 Extreme Poverty A situation where people are living on less than $1 a day Failed State A state that has lost physical control of its territory and Foreign Policy or the monopoly on the legitimate use of force Other Journal17 attributes of state failure include the erosion of the legitimate authority to make collective decisions the inability to provide reasonable public services and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community Fragile State A state whose the government cannot will not deliver core United functions territorial control safety and security public Kingdom18 resources management basic services delivery protection of the poor to the majority of its people Futures Research The formulation and development of visions of alternative World Future futures to enable a better understanding of the possible Society19 consequences of present and future decisions It has strong and sound historical origins in sociology and more recently in political science and the other social sciences It also has independent origins in corporate and institutional planning and in strategic and long-range planning and it has significant contemporary roots in government particularly in national security The successful practice of futures research requires contributions from established academic disciplines and from such cross-disciplinary fields as technology assessment policy analysis operations research and issues management Globalization The growing interconnectedness reflected in the increase flow of information technology goods services and people throughout the world The increased mobility of goods services ideas labour technology and capital throughout the world Humanitarian Assistance In the context of an operation the use of available Canada21 military resources to assist or complement the efforts of responsible civil actors in the area of operations or the work of specialized civil humanitarian organizations in fulfilling their primary responsibility to alleviate human suffering 120 United Nations16 National Intelligence Council ABCA20 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends TERM DEFINITION Humanitarian Operations An operation specifically mounted to alleviate human Canada22 suffering where responsible civil actors in an area are unable or unwilling to adequately support a population It may precede parallel or complement the work of specialized civil humanitarian organizations Hybrid War The incorporation of a full range of modes of warfare ABCA23 including conventional capabilities irregular tactics terrorist acts and criminal disorder Hybrid wars can be conducted by both state and non-state actors Insurgency An armed conflict between one or more non-state actors Canada24 and a state whereby the former tries to modify the political order and the latter tries to maintain it Integrated Combining or coordinating separate elements to allow Canada25 them to function cooperatively Joint is a military form of integration within a force Combined is another example of the integration of the military services of two or more nations Less Developed Regions All regions of Africa Asia excluding Japan and Latin United America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia Micronesia Nations26 and Polynesia More Developed Regions All regions of Europe plus North America Australia New United Zealand and Japan Nations27 Megacity Urban agglomeration of at least 10 million inhabitants Meta-national A company that builds competitive advantage by Academia29 discovering accessing mobilizing and leveraging knowledge from many locations around the world Nanotechnology The study of matter on an ultra-small scale One nanometre is one-millionth of a millimetre Networked Groups of any kind size or purpose political diplomatic Canada31 economic social military media internet This term does not refer solely to technology Peak Oil The maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration given that oil is a finite natural resource subject to depletion Shock An event that accelerates or decelerates a trend reverses United the direction of a trend or even precipitates a new trend States33 Shocks alter the course of trends Shocks can be sudden and violent and are often unanticipated They can also occur when a system passes a critical point and undergoes a phase change Stability Operations A tactical activity conducted by military and security forces Canada34 often in conjunction with other agencies to maintain restore or establish a climate of order chief of force development USAGE United Nations28 United Kingdom30 Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas32 121 the future security environment 2008-2030 TERM DEFINITION Terrorism The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence Canada35 and against individuals or property for the purpose of coercing Academia36 or intimidating governments or societies in order to achieve political religious or ideological objectives the threat or use of physical coercion primarily against noncombatants especially civilians to create fear in order to achieve various political objectives USAGE Threat Potential problems posed by political actors both state and non-state who have the intent and capacity to do harm Canada37 Trend The direction and speed of change in important components of the international environment A trend is a description of the manner in which one of these components is changing accelerating or decelerating United States38 Weapons of Mass Destruction A weapon that is capable of a high order of destruction Canada39 and that can be used to destroy people infrastructure or other resources on a large scale Weapons of Mass Effect Weapons capable of inflicting grave destructive United psychological and or economic damage These include States40 include but are not limited to CBRN or explosive weapons Such weapons do not need to inflict physical damage to have mass effect i e cyber attacks NOTES 1 Department of National Defence Integrated Capstone Concept Draft Ottawa Directorate of Future Security Analysis 2008 2 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 19741 and Record 23359 3 ABCA “Strategic Assessment of the Security Environment 2008-2030 ” p 17 4 Australian Government “Biotechnology and Gene Technology Glossary of Terms ” Department of the Environment and Water Resources website http www environment gov au settlements biotechnology glossary html accessed 4 February 2008 5 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 19041 6 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 976 7 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 32174 8 Department of National Defence “Conclusion ” Strategic Assessment 2007 draft Ottawa Directorate of Strategic Analysis 2008 p 1 9 Department of National Defence Integrated Capstone Concept Draft Ottawa Directorate of Future Security Analysis 2008 10 Department of National Defence Integrated Capstone Concept Draft Ottawa Directorate of Future Security Analysis 2008 122 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends 11 “The Comprehensive Approach A Conceptual Framework for Multi-National Experiment 5 – A Summary Paper ” Suffolk Joint Futures Lab United States Joint Forces Command November 2006 p 1 12 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 32780 13 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 20305 14 United Nations “Desertification ” Food and Agriculture Organization http www fao org desertification default asp lang en accessed 19 March 2007 15 Colonel Joseph Engelbrecht et al Alternate Futures for 2020 Security Planning to Avoid Surprise Washington DC Air Force 2025 Project April 1996 p 3 16 Lauren Mack “Analysis UN Report – Reduce Poverty Now ” Press Release New York United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2006 17 The Fund for Peace “Failed States Index 2007 FAQ and Methodology ” Foreign Policy July August 2007 http www foreignpolicy com story cms php story_id 3865 page 8 accessed 6 February 2008 18 DFID Why We Need to Work More Effectively p 7 19 World Future Society “Editorial Policy ” Futures Research Quarterly http www wfs org frq htm accessed 25 March 2008 20 NIC Mapping the Global Future p 10 ABCA “Strategic Assessment of the Security Environment 2008-2030 ” p 8 21 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 26977 22 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 23366 23 ABCA “Strategic Assessment of the Security Environment 2008-2030 ” p 18 24 Department of National Defence Strategic Assessment 2006-2007 Ed Ben Lombardi Ottawa Directorate of Strategic Analysis December 2006 p 37 25 Department of National Defence Integrated Capstone Concept Draft Ottawa Directorate of Future Security Analysis 2008 26 United Nations World Urbanization Prospects p vii 27 United Nations World Urbanization Prospects p vii 28 United Nations World Urbanization Prospects p 10 29 Yves Doz et al From Global to Metanational How Companies Win in the Knowledge Economy p ix 30 The Royal Society “Glossary ” www royalsoc ac uk glossary asp accessed 4 February 2008 31 Department of National Defence Integrated Capstone Concept Draft Ottawa Directorate of Future Security Analysis 2008 32 Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http www peakoil net accessed 28 March 2008 33 JFCOM Joint Operating Environment p 3 34 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 25515 35 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 2738 36 Bard O’Neill From Revolution to Apocalypse Insurgency and Terrorism Dulles Virginia Potomac Books Inc 2005 p 33 37 Department of National Defence “Conclusion ” Strategic Assessment 2007 draft Ottawa Directorate of Strategic Analysis 2008 p 1 chief of force development 123 the future security environment 2008-2030 38 JFCOM Joint Operating Environment pp 2-3 39 Department of National Defence Defence Terminology Bank http terminology mil ca term-eng asp Record 23368 40 United States Government “Homeland Security Advisory Council Weapons of Mass Effect Task Force on Preventing the Entry of Weapons of Mass Effect into the United States” Washington DC Department of Homeland Security January 2006 p 3 124 chief of force development part 1 current and emerging trends APPENDIX 4 BIBLIOGRAPHY Future Research Methodology Air University The World of 2020 and Alternative Futures Maxwell Air Force Base June 1994 Costanza Robert “Visions of 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