lIJGBPDVOl JlIJGBPD11 $I l JWOV GBPD $lIJl W f l3 W l3 Wl3U1lDl3 f WU1W I1 LlmlD lB B U JI1 J 7 SmrnmUJ E tJ0 @ 86-36 EO 1 4 c THEI ISYSTEM WHAT IS CIPHER TEXT HOW DO WE KNOW I 'S TRUE I I 1 1 3 Vera R Filby o 6 V 7 EXPL T r S I THE PREBENDARY AND THE PROPHET Reed Dawson IIIS BgeBMRN G9N'l'AIN8 C99BW9R9 MATBRIAI 13 G' de 91BNHA GHGIiJIiJ NS GIiJI JM Io o tlxewptfaum6BS Jil9tl H Gate _ 1I Ber' I J oo N U OR UM' ' II Declassified and Approved for Release by NSA on '10-'1 '1- 20'1 2 pursuant to E O '135 26 vl DR Case # 54778 DOCID 4009729 'fOP BECRE Published Monthly by PI Techniques and Standards for the Personnel of Operations VOL II I No 2 FEBRUARY 1976 PUBLISHER WILLIAM LUTWINIAK BOARD OF EDITORS Editor in Chief Arthur J Salemme 56425 Cryptanalysis Language P L 1 80255 1 Emery W Tetrault 52365 Machine support ii s 1 Mathematics Reed Dawson 39575 Special Research Vera R Filby 71195 Traffic Analysis Frederic O Mason Jr 41425 For individual subscriptions send name and organizational designator to CRYPTOLOG PI tfOP 8ECR T 86-36 DOCID 4009729 SECRB'f E01 i GBP SYSTEM TH'E P L The fo ZZOUJing articLe on the L - -- - -- - I I -- - I System originaLLy appeared in the August 1975 issue of NSA CSS FieLd Information Letter the Editor of which has given his kind permission for reprinting it in sLightLy revised form Introduction February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page l EO 1 4 c P L 86-36 SI1CRI1T IWlBf 5 VIA 6811IN'f elh 'lmEL3 Ol4Lt 8 6- 3 6 DOCID 4009729 SI3EURRE'f EO 1 4 c ing and message processing equipme1f-GBPon g 36 information and tasking priority data Tasking software The data base consists of three files These files contain TEXTA-type information processing parameters for both signal process- Continued on page 12 February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 2 SECRI T IbldUlhE 'tIA eetotII4T eJ'tlllNNELS ONLI DOCID 4009729 OP Sl3eRI3 UMBRA P L 86-36 WHAT IS CIPHER TEXT 1 _ February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 3 TOP SECRET UMBRJo 1 4 L c 86-36 DOCID 4009729 OP SECRE UMBRA February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 4 'fOP SECRET YMHR EO 1 4 c F L 86-36 DOCID 4009729 'fOP SECRET mlBItA February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 5 'FOP SI3EURRBCf UMBR2 EO 1 4 c P L 86-36 DOCID 4009729 SECRE'f SPOK P L 86-36 HOW DO WE KNOW IT'S TRUE VERA R Filby E12 a mixture of surprise amusement nrl It was the last day of our first one-week impatience I course designed to acquaint DIA analysts with SIGINT and improve their understanding of it All week long we instructors ind our guest speakers experts from allover the Agency had been providing these mostly middle-level all-source f----- ---------------- But we felt analysts with a br ad view of the whole SIGINT uneasily that we were not reaching all of the process from collection through processing to students not convincing them not instilling in reporting and dissemination thus offering them them the quality of understanding that the an opportunity for insight seldom afforded lour course was intended to provide own middle-level analysts It was a question- __ I lnI W 1 October in the FriedlllanAliditoriu J__ 1 P L 86-36 and-answer period following the last lecture on poke on SIGINT in Vietnam Lessons Unreporting and one student probably in his learned for the CM His message brought it thirties and typical of the class stood up and home to us that this attitude on the part of said Yes but if it's SIGINT how do we know some of our users is more than an occasional it's true The question was so unexBected that aberration to be allowed for ignorance to be alleviated or among some in high places none of the nonplussed instructors can now remember what kind of answer was offered The arrogance to be swallowed and endured It can SIGINT people in the room just didn't know what be lethal And Tom gave specifics Among them to make of it After all to us in the business the SIGINT evidence of Tet was not believed it there is no such question if it's SIGINT then was dismissed as deception The SIGINT eviit is true by definition SIGIN't is the enemy dence of the final collapse of Saigon was not speaking to repeat the familiar phrase believed it was deception These DIA classes which have been given alThen maybe it is time for us in the crypto most every month since August 1974 were organlogic cODDIIUnity to do somethinR about it As ized in response to a recommendation from Dr a start let us who manage and present the course Hall Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intel SIGINT Exploitation for User Analysts use the ligence to provide training for improved expages of CRYPTOLOG to propose some kind of symploitation of SIGINT This recommendation was posium or conference to bring together all we a result of the Intelligence Community Staff know about radio deceptionusinccuthcuenduQf EO 1 4 c Iwhich provided WbrTdWa rTL It would not concern so much eVIdence that the IntellIgence community failed electronic deception the techniques of elecP L 86-36 to use the SIGINT information available and pub- tronic warfare since that is quite well studlished in SIGINT reports In reading the staff ied and documented but would surveyall f1knol'r P L 86-36 study Dr Hall concluded that production anaabout radio deception Ofth sewhoshould be lysts need to be cros trained thoroughly in invited to participltte ecan think immediately the use of SIGINT source material so that they ofl IWho knows the Vietnam storY' of can understand its capabilities and become fa miliar with the methods of SIGINT analysis and with the modes and highly specialized terminolour'L - -_-- - ' '_--- -_ _J Iho has gy of SIGINT reporting LUuIeu Lne sUDJect intensively and as a member of NFOIO has provided the lecture for the DIA After that fir5 t class with the how do we course Who should sponsor such a conference know it's true challenge from one of its memWe are asking the question we don't know thep L 86-36 bers after we had been pouring out the SIGINT answer EO story all week we continued to get echoes in 1 4 c later classes aT the attitude implicit in the But we do know that a thorough and definitive question It must have been the end of the thirc study of radio deception would be of immense value class before it finally began to seep through to for two complementary groups of people -- the our awarenesS that some of those readers out SIGINT analysts and the users they serve For there those users of our product have a per- the analysts 1 ception of8IGINT reality quite different fr m our own We began to realize that for it least some of them the world is bathed in an ether infused with false signals emitted just to deceive and mislead and they seem to have a vision of a I And for the users the cryptologic communi t 'imrnersed in that miasma basis for the confidence we have been assuming and vulnerable to its poisons Once we began to all these the se years they had the answer to appreciate tllis perception we regarded it with their question How do we know it's true I EO 1 4 c P L 86-36 February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 6 SECRET SPOKE DOCID 4009729 UNCLASSIFIED EXPLETIVES DELETED GLOSSING OVER A GLOSSARY I P L 8 r36 Editor's note The truly professional linguist needs every conceivable specialized dictionary he can get including dictionaries of nonstandard language swh as occupational jargon slang and even obscenityl The nonlinguist can easily understand the need for a glossary of the words used say by a Russian steel worker but aU he has to find is a single English obscenity in a slang glossary not to mention an entire book devoted to obscenity and he is convinced that the linguist is a professional all right -a professional Dirty Old Man In the article that foZlows a valuable aid containing several nasty words is revieul ldbyl I I lin a manner thqtd08S not alter the 'linguist'f DOMimage there's nothing in it to offend anybody's Aunt Hattie So read and enjoy P L before she could see something to phone the police about the reader will have to refer to the book himself before seeing anything that offends him I shall limit myself to the following topics o Galler's background and his reasons for writing the book o the origin of Soviet prison camp speech o the characteristics of Soviet prison camp speech with examples and o the attitudes and prominent feature of the daily life of Soviet prisoners as indicated in their speech klller's backgrOund In 1964 Meyer Galler got the idea of compiling a glossary of Soviet labor camp and prison camp Jargon which would be based on his own experiences in Stalin's camps and prisons The 86-36 idea came to him while he was reading the Th jartide a revised version reminiscences of other former prisoners when of a talk that resented to the CLA ' s Specialnteres oup on LeX1 -cography he realized that such a glossary would be of value to historians social scientists students SIGLEX CRYFTOLOG readers who are interof the Russian language and the general reader ested in the problems of compiling foreignparticularly in the West Although there had language glossaries dictionaries etc are invited to attend the Group's regularly-held been several occurrences of that jargon in various publications including Solzhenitsyn's meetings further information call SIGLEX Chairman 5642s One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich no extensive glossary had been published before Galler's book appeared Galler was born in Bialystok Poland at a Soviet mson Camp Speech A Survivor's Glossary Meyer Galler and tLne when Poland was part of the tsarist empire Harlan E Marquess University of His native language was Russian which he Wisconsin Press 1972 216 pp spoke at home as well as in elementary school until Russian was supplanted by Polish followIntrodwtion i ng the establishment of the independent Polish 1 11 adhere to the title of this article and state after World War I During World War II refrain from citing any of the obscenities vul- from August 1941 until May 1942 he worked in the Kazakh SSR One day he was asked to report garities and curses contained in the book being reviewed Like the lady who had to jump up to the Special Section NKVD of the organization where he was working There he was inonto the bureau and lean out of the window vited by two NKVD agents to visit the Alma Ata NKVD office to clarify certain matters 1 He was arrested and placed in solitary confineSee A J Salemme Beyond Webster and ment in Alma-Ata for the 6 months of his inAll That Dictionaries of Unconventional vestigation At the end of the investigation Language Studies in IntelZigence CIA and after exhaustive interrogations he signed Vol 13 No 2 1969 a statement of all charges against him and was r Bz a zl I Frr February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 7 UNCLASSIFIED DOCID 4009729 UNCLASSIFIED then transferred to a common cell to await trial In 1943 he'was sentenced without trial to 10 years of corrective labor camps on the basis of his alleged counterrevolutionary activities that is on the basis of his racial and geographic background The number of speakers in the USSR who understand and use prison camp speech is presumably quite large since vast numbers of persons have had firsthand exposure to it and millions more have been closely associated with someone who has At any rate Soviet prison camp speech has been and remains remarkably homogeneous The bulk of its vocabulary has remained quite constant despite the inevitable chanRes over the years And that vocabulary seems to be understood everywhere in the Soviet Union He was soon transferred to a camp near Tashkent capital of Uzbek SSR where he dug construction foundations Then he was transferred to the Aktyubinsk labor camp in Kazakh SSR where he variously worked in the housing area for free employees in a brickmaking camp in Charaoteristios of Soviet Prison Camp speeoh an agricultural area and in a penalty lime I mentioned earlier that prison camp speech camp as well as in the main compound Later he is not a special language different from Ruswas reassigned to the old Karaganda camps or sian nor even a special regional or social KARLAG which Solzhenitsyncalled a kingdom dialect of Russian but rather a special vocabularger than France and which Galler reached by lary which can be readily incorporated into the circuitous railroad routes He was released speech of any user of Russian A prisoner arexactly on the tenth anniversary of his arrest rives in camp with his lingUistic habits already In 1958 he was permitted to leave the Soviet formed and these habits are Unlikely to change Union significantly A college-trained person continues to use a spoken variety of standard RusOTigins of Soviet Prison Camp Speech sian and an uneducated farm worker for examSoviet prison and labor camp speech is a sub- ple continues to use hi s village dialect Both standard variety of Russian but it is essenpersons however can easily incorporate into tially Russian and a distinctive Russian idiom their speech the special vocabulary used in at that It contains legal and administrative labor camps and prisons jargon borrowings from non-Russian Soviet Since the language we are discussing is minority languages criminal arRot obscenities overwhelmingly standard Russian from the and frequeJltly elements of uneducated peasant speech Literature containing prison camp speech standpoint of phonology morphology and syntai it is the lexicon that we must examine in typically circulates in scurrizdat underground order to find the characteristics of prison press usually typewritten editions Scurrizdat literature often finds its way to the West where it camp speech The authors of the book being reviewed divide their glossary or lexicon is first published in translation but Solzhenitsyn's scurrizdat novel was published in the USSR be- into five main groups fore its English translation was published as One o proverbs and sayings Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich o abbreviations o argot used by the criminal element Prison camp speech first began to appear in that is the nonpolitical prisoners print soon after the Russian revolution Early o obscenities and examples of it can be found in the 1920's in o various items that do not fit within the accounts of prisoners who had been released the first four categories or who had managed to escape and subsequently Proverbs and Sayings found their way to the West The 1930's particularly the time of the purges 1934-1937 Prison camp speech like Russian speech in yielded a rather large number of works by former general is rich in proverbs maxims and simiprisoners some of which are only now being pub- lar sayings Since these sayings frequently relished Nearly all contain some prison camp fer to such basic concerns as hunger beatings speech and dealings with the established higher authorities and since it is precisely these concerns Another group of reminiscences deals with that preoccupy the prisoners they are very World War II and the postwar period Many of popUlar in labor camps and prisons Proverbs these accounts were written by Poles who were also provide a picture of the morality and the deported to camps in 1939-1940 and released in 1941-1942 to join the Polish units being formed personal code followed by the prisoners Although the morality developed under extremely in the USSR to fight the Nazis Solzhenitsyn most notably represents the postwar period not hard conditions leaves something to be desired we can sympathize with the prisoner who knows only with Ivan Denisovich but also his later works The Cancer Ward The First Circle GULAG that Arohipelago as well as his play The Love-Girl Ne ukI'adZsh I ne prozhivMsh I and the Innocent all of which contain prison If you don't steal you won't make it camp speech Another author whose work contains Of course it's too bad that his making it conthis speech is Anatolij Marchenko whose book tributes to his fellow prisoners' not making Moi Pokazaniya My Testimony published in it but 1969 deals with the post-Stalin penal system February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 8 UNCLASSIFIED DOCID 4009729 UNCLASSIFIED Similarly Kto kogo smozhet tot togo i glozhet He who can will swallow you Pl'ivyknesh' a ne privyknesh' podokhnesh' You'll get used to it if you don't get used to it you've had it Podokhni ty segodnya a ya zavtra Croak today if you want to but 1' 11 wait till tomorrow Galler has recorded approximately SO proverbs and sayings of which about a dozen are wellknown old ones not restricted to use by prisoners and about 10 more that seem clearly to be modeled on or inspired by older proverbs Most of the remainder have been originated among the prisoners The well-known old proverbs and sayings are in most instances extremely apt for describing the conditions the prisoners find 'themselves in For example In response to a guard's question during search What have you got in your pocket V odnom karmane vosh' na arkane v drugom blokha na tsepi In one pocket a louse on a leash in the other a flea on a chain Ehto tol'ko tsvetoahki a yagodki vperedi These are only the little flowers the berries lie ahead Meaning The worst s yet to come Byla by sheya a yarmo najd Itsya If you have a neck they'll find a yoke for it Frequent ironic reply to new arrivals asking about what kind of work they'll be assigned to Vek zhivi durakom pomr 1sh' Though you live to be 100 you'll die a fool In camps this common expression implies that even the most astute camp inmates cannot rely on their experience To describe the great physical and mental resistance of female prisoners to the rigors of camp life prisoners use the expression zhivuahaya kak koshka having nine lives literally living like a cat The futility of judicial appeals to Moscow is conveyed in the expression Moskva slllzam ne vent Moscow does not believe tears This is also an example of a proverb which hSd lost its original significance and fallen into disuse when the capital of the country was moved to St Petersburg In the Soviet period with the return of the capital to Moscow and when the reversal of a sentence became almost unheard of the proverb was revived and became quite popular once more The eclipse -- at least the official eclipse -- of a formerly popular proverb becaus of the changed historical and social conditions following the Revolution is noted in the expression zakon ahto dyshlo kuda povernul tuda i vyshlo The law is like a wagon tongue it goes wherever you direct it The official eclipse stems from the fact that unlike the situation in the tsarist times laws are supposed no longer to be administered capricously The political prisoner knows better however and the proverb is thriving in labor camps and prisons with the addition of the adjective Sovetskij Soviet before zakon law Durak rabotu lyubit i rabota duraka lyubit A fool likes work and work likes a fool This camp proverb is an expanded version of Rabota durakov lyubit Work likes fools The implication of the camp version is that work must be avoided in order to survive Ne padaj dukhom a bryukhom Don't lose your spirit but your belly A possible precedent for this camp proverb which is used by camp veterans to advise newcomers to keep their courage up and to be prepared to tighten their belts may stem from Postis' dukhom a ne bryukhom Keep the fast in spirit and not in the belly Voda mel 'nitsy lomaet Water wears down mills This proverb is quite similar to Voda kamen' toahit Water wears away stone The prison camp proverb refers to the harmful effect on the human organism of consuming large quantities of watery soup without any caloric value 1any prison camp proverbs appear to follow a standard formula for proverb making This formula can be represented as Byl by A a B budet or Byl by A a B najdlltsya If there is A B will be found A and B represent nouns Gender and number of the verbs may change depending on which nouns occupy the Aand Bpositions One proverb of this type was already mentioned Byla by sheya a yarmo najd Itsya If you have a neck they'll find a yoke for it Proverbs formed by the same pattern include Byl by ahelovek a delo na 'd etsya If we get the man we can find a charge to pin on him This proverb may also have been inspired by Byla by spina najdlltsya i vina If we get the February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 9 UNCLASSIFIED DOCID 4009729 UNCLASSIFIED man literally 'the person's back' we'll find out what he's guilty of ByZa by kost' a shkura narastf t If the bone is left the hide will grow back This expression is used by inmates to cheer each other up It was popular during the war and postwar years when malnutrition was common in the camps KVCh privezZo rather than privezla kinokartinu J The KVCh brought in a movie II If the initial-letter abbreviation happens to contain a medial vowel that makes the abbreviation pronounceable as a word the abbreviation is usually inflected and othe ise treated as a masculine singular noun even if the principal word in the abbreviation is not masculine singular Examples BUR barak usilf nnogo rezhima pronounced bur strict discipline barracks SLON severnye Uxgerya osobogo naznaaheniya pronounced sZon Special-Purpose Northern Camps Two proverbs which apparently have no counterparts in standard Russian and which are thought to be of recent prison camp origin are Chem dobru propadat' Zuahshe pust' puzo Zopnet Rather than waste the good it is better to VTeK vneoaherednaya trudovaya komissiya let the belly burst Implication is pronounced vtek vowel e is inserted to that under camp conditions everything make abbreviation pronounceable as a word has to be utilized even if the results special commission to determine working might be harmfUl ability FPokuror medved' a khozyain aherpak Z K zakZyuah Innyj pronounced ze-ka The prosecutor is a bear but the ladle is prisoner This is the official form of your master The proverb describes the reference and address both in written contrast between the prosecutor or other statements and in spoken announcements duly constituted authority on the one e g Grazhdane Z K Prisoners The hand and the necessity of adapting oneunofficial abbreviation used among the self to unwritten camp rules on the other prisoners themselves is zehk inflected Survival in camps means an unceasing strugas an ordinary masculine noun gle for the ladle that is enough to eat Initial-syllable abbreviations Abbreviations Abbreviations of this type are pronounceable Approximately 10 percent of Galler's glosas words and usually inflect as ordinary sary consists of various abbreviations These masculine nouns Examples abbreviations are formed in the same manner naahkar naahal 'nik karauZa as abbreviations in standard Russian and chief of camp guards--fall into the following categories seksot sekretnyj sotrudnik o abbreviations formed from the initial collaborator Literally secret Zetters of the words represented co-worker o abbreviations formed from the initial Mixed Zetter-and-syZlable abbpeviations syllabZes of the words represented o abbreviations formed from a mixture of Such abbreviations which end in a consonant initial letters and syllables usually inflect as a singular masculine noun o abbreviated words consisting of an Examples abbreviated adjective prefixed to an GULAG QUxvnoe yprav lenie Uxgerej inflectable noun and Chief Directorate of Camps o other abbreviated 1JJords formed anomalously SMERSh Smert' J pionam In most instances these abbreviations Death to spies SMERSh was a subsection of are pronounced letter by letter with the the Special Division 1942-1946 an orstress falling on the last ietter Such abgan of the secret police attached to the breviations are usually not inflected but they Soviet armed forces SMERSh was in charge usually retain the gender of the abbreviatedof interrogating ex-POWs to determine words that is an abbreviation referring to a whether or not they were German spies woman will require the use of a verb with a feminine ending Examples Such abbreviations which end in a vowel mayor may not inflect depending on stress ZhVN zhena vraga naroda pronounced zheExamples ve-en wife of an enemy of the people vokhra voenizirovannya okhran camp garrison E g komandir vokhPy KVCh kuZ'turno-vospitatel'naya ahast' commander of the camp garrison pronounced ka-ve-ahe culture and education unit Despite the vPidZo vremenno ispolnyayushahij olzh- feminine gender of ahast' this abbrevianostej loshadi tion is usually considered neuter as in human tractive power literally acthg J February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 10 UNCLASSIFIED DOCID 4009729 UNCLASSIFIED horse Abbreviation vrid is standard officialese for acting as in Acting Chief shizo sht roafrzoj izo Zyator' special solitary confinement solitary confinement cell under the jurisdiction of a special commandant which is maintained for prisoners being interrogated for crimes committed in camp Abbpeviated wopds with abbpeviated adjective as ppefix hbbreviated words of this type retain the gender and inflection of the basic noun to which the abbreviated adjective is prefixed Examples sanchast' sanitaPnaya chast' medical unit In camp life the central medical office for a camp district serving 5 or 6 camp sections nadzopsZuzhba nadzoPnaya sZuzhba supervisory service the camp's supervisory staff guzhPabsiZa guzehevaya pabochaya sila tractive force generic technical term for all kinds of available tractive power -- mechanical draft animals and human Othep types of abbpeviated wopds Other types of abbreviated words formed anomalously include gar antijka gapantijnaya pajka guaranteed-ration 450-550 grams of bread not dependent on work quotas which is given to invalids and certain employees such as office workers and orderlies vyshka vysshaya mepa nakazaniya death sentence derived from officialese highest measure of punishment tightly organized professional criminal group The hardened professional criminals are called upki singular UPka or bZatnye singular bZatnoj The professional criminals are covered by the criminal code and have the rights of criminals Among themselves they have their own code and customs and because they are trusted by the Soviet authorities more than the political prisoners they usually have power and privileges far out of proportion to their limited numbers Criminals are customarily given the easiest jobs in camp are assigned to positions of authority over the political prisoners and they make use of their advantageous position to terrorize and generally victimize the political prisoners whom they call fpajepa pigeons dupes Since political prisoners were from the beginning confined together with the criminals the special jargon of the criminal soon became the common property of both categories of prisoners In its earliest form prison camp speech consisted almost entirely of the criminals' prerevolutionary jargon But new words and expressions devised to reflect new conditions in the camps and in Soviet free life were gradually added to this initial stock of words until -eventually they came to outnumber the criminal component In prerevolutionary Russian the criminals' own designation for their argot was bZatnaya muzyka thieves' cant more recently it is fenya presumably from an earlier afenya or ofenya peddler and afenskaya or ofenskaya pech' peddlers' speech The expression botat' po-fene to speak in criminal argot is also used Galler's glossary contains more than 100 items that can be positively identified as being of criminal argot origin Obscenities Obscenities vulgarities and curses constivagonzak vagon dZya zakZyuch9nnykhJ tute a prominent feature of prison camp speech also called stoZypinskij vagon but they are probably used no more widely there Stolypin car prisoners' car a railroad car for transthan among soldiers students and workers -male and female -- and in other groups But porting prisoners Alternate name is the grim life of prisoners encourages the use of derived from name of prerevolutionary Minister of the Interior Petr Arkad'evich obscenities and abusive speech and is the only form of rebellion to camp conditions which is Stolypin Car is designed to accomodate open to the prisoners Foul abusive speech is 8 prisoners but usually carries 25-28 used equally by camp authorities and sometimes ChSIRovka derived from official abbreviadeliberately so by interrogators as onc device tion ChSIR chlen sem'i izmennika for breaking the spirit of the prisoner and Rodine forcing him to confess to his crimes The female member of a traitor's family constant use of abusive speech by overseers and guards seems to be part of a deliberate design CpiminaZ ar got to vilify and dehumanize the victims Soviet prison camp authorities and the This is the part of the glossary I think i t is prison inmates themselves divide the prisoners appropriate to gloss over before a mixed readerinto two categories criminals proper the criminal element and political prison- ship but the glossary contains a wide assorters Th vast majority of the prisoner popula- ment of expletives fUlly defined and explained with samples of their use According to the tion consists of political prisoners These authors of the glossary none of th obscenities together with the nonprofessional criminals contained in it originated in Soviet camps and are regarded as outsiders by the smaller prisons and none of them deal exclusively with February 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 11 UNCLASSIFIED DOCID 4009729 CRET EO 1 4 c P L 86-36 I aspects of camp and prison life most of them THE ISYSTEM can only be regarded as standard Russian ob Conti -nu-e-d ------ 2 scenities Residue The largest portion of the glossary is made up of forms which are neither proverbs and sayings nor abbreviations nor criminal argot nor obscenities Most of the items in this residual category consist of entirely new formations for persons events institutions or procedures relating to Soviet camp and prison life As one might expect these words are derived primarily from new combinations of Slavic roots and affixes as well as from changing the meanings of 01 words One example of such word formation is the prisoner's word dokhodyaga a goner which is derived from the standard Russian word dokhodi t ' to reach to go as far as to be exhausted and the suffix -yaga which designates a person Swrmary Gl'im humor It becomes clear to the reader of Galler's glossary that no matter how grim and hopeless the prisoner's condition his sense of humor does not normally fail him Communist slogans are often a target of the prisoners' wit although tampering with slogans is dangerous and even in camp a prisoner could be iven an additional sentence for that and other infractions The following examples are based on the phonetic similarity between the slogan and the parody SaSRaT SotsiaZistiaheskaya bditeZ'nost' Socialist vigilance SotsiaZistiaheskaya baditeZ'nost' SoZution to NSA-arostia No 2 Socialist flatulence 2 BytiU opredeZyaet soananie Being determines consciousness BitiU opredeZyaet soananie Beating determines consciousness A kind of ironic encouragement to newcomers to camp may be found in the fact that the soonto-be-lost belly is referred to as sotsnakopZenie socialist accumulation And finally the prisoners' attitude and perhaps their whole philosophy might be summed up in the following refrain Pod Jrn budet ne budi Raavod budet ne budi Obed budet dva raaa budi When reveille comes don't wake me When time to work comes don't wake me When it's dinner time wake me twice 2Aunt Hattie don't look this up UNCLASSIFIED IIJPYCC8 UNCLASSIF IED CLASSIFICATION CORRECTION NOTICE In the December 1975 issue of CRYPTOLOG please change the classification of the article Graphic Analysis of Linear Recursive Sequences pp 6-8 from UNCLASSIFIED to SECRET -- HANDLE VIA COMINT CHANNELS ONLY This notice is eSl FIBEl fIAb 1I 88S February 76 CRYI'TOLOG Page 12 S CRI T 111d4BLE 'IIA eS llIlt'f' 81b'cflNEbS 8P1bY DOCID 4009729 UNCLASSIFIED THE PREBENDARY R THE PROPHET or How to Score Probabilistic Predictions REED DAWSON P12 In that old classic of combinatorics Choice and Chance the Prebendary W A Whitworth cautions the reader against gambling even on fair bets If a man has a thousand pounds in total fortune he does not flip a coin for GBP1000 because the unpleasantness of ruin could scarcely be balanced by the pleasure of a second GBP1000 Nor would he be wise to hazard any lesser amount continually for he would with probability one go broke eventually Verily saith the Prebendary the winning of an even wager increases a man's property in less ratio than that in which the losing of the wager decreases it The Prebendary evaluates a fortune by its logarithm Losing half one's fortune balances against doubling the fortune so he would not risk more than half his fortune on a flip to double it More generally he regards a wager as prudent only if the expected increase in the logarithm of his fortune is at least zero If he doubles his fortune its logarithm increases by log 2 if he halves his fortune its logarithm decreases by log 2 Therefore he can make a double-or-halve bet provided he has at least an even chance of winning He would not flip a coin for a pound because whatever his fortune f his expected log fortune after the flip would be And if my calculus fails not I maximize E hy choosing x p-q f Then if I win log f increases to log f p-q f log 2pf log f log 2p whilst if I lose my log fortune dwindles to log f log 2q where 2q is less than unity Therefore the value of the Verger's prophecy is in proportion to the logarithm of double the probability he assigned to what actually happened I'll wager conservatively and keep tabs on the prophet by scoring him log 2p when he's right and log 2q when he's wrong The moral is that a sequence of predictions on a recurrent two-valued outcome can be scored by averaging log 2xi where x is the probability assigned to the occurring out ome One could for example score Louis Allen's probability of rain the following day against the mean daily average probability or against a Markov model where the transition probabilities between rain and shine are estimated from past records If the base of the logarithms is 2 or the scores are log 2xi log 2 to any base perfect I information as when p 1 and the predicted event happens scores unity If the prophet says p 1 or 0 and comes a cropper he scores minus infinity and should be relegated to a brokerage house or campaign committee l log f l l log f-l 2 2 The application is to all fields of prophecy and forecasting including scoring intelligence log f l f-l log f2_l assessors who say there 's probability p that the which is less than log f Arabs will up the price of oil q that the SyriBut hark There's the good Prebendary himans will attack and z that World War III will self sloshing his way across Foggy Bottom and start in Angola If several prophets assign reflectinR on the folly of the denizens who are divers probabilities to th same events it beinveterate speculators upon the next day's weather comes possible to say which prophet is best and Fact is the Prebendary is saying to himself whether the best is any good it rains an average of every other day here For an economic illustration suppose the price but none of these chaps has any inkling which of gold rises or sinks daily as indicated by the arThe Verger is no mean prophet with his barometer rows in the chart below and that prophets Aand B and charts but no gambler either Why don't I assign the prior probabilities of rise given use his predictions Just how good are they J Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ProphetA 5 7 8 3 1 6 4 Hmm If the Verger calls for rain or 1 ProphetB 3 7 9 0 4 2 shine with some probability p greater than one-half how much of my fortune might I wager Price l' it' 49 68 49 85 26 26 1 -- at even odds with the local yokels -- on rain A's score 0 B's score 49 49 85 1 26 - 32 68 85 or shine If I wager x pounds then assuming p my expected log fortune on the morrow The average scores are 50 for A and 54 for will be B Both are supplying what might be called half-information but B is the better by an E P log f x q log f-x where q l-p verage of 0 04 over this mea er sample ' Februarv 76 CRYPTOLOG Page 13 UNCLASSIFIED ' oo Pl-Feb 16-S3-24361 DOClD 4009729 -JGP-SEERH- ---- _u_ c D 'fillS 80 J l fEN'f JON'fAoINS J08EWOR8 MAo'fERIAo This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu