AuthOIiB Wil SECRET Resaarch Memermdum Saptember 23 1963 To Tim Acting Sac'ratary Fram INK Thamas L Hugh Subject 33 132119 Historic 3 1 Nata Iraniculy what actually happumd at Kamila in 1932 has littla relevance to the connatations that the nama has acquira Twa weak and defeated pawars Germany and Russia gut togathar arranged for than normalisatmn 9f their diplomatic ralatiana and gs-Med ta 3 modarata anemic and palitical intar-a changa Symbolically 9f course it lent a shivar through the rest at Eurnpe The Treaty of Rapnlm as the first major dependant move at a defeated Germany bake-d iarward in Russian aid ta Canaan military training and was embiematic of $11 mtagenism ta Frame interwar daminatiun 0f tha cum uent that ended in the af 1938 and 1 39 In this nymbaiic sen then Rapalle may be taken as daunting that radical reversal of Atlantic relationships that would result if West Germany we ta ta sack its sacurity by ccaperating with Russia instead of cant nuing its dependence an the US It is this congept of Rapalla that 1am examine here I Metivas at Gaman Pulicy Far the purpeses cf this away the multiple comm-us that shapa German foreign policy may be reduced t0 ame the Germans welt security and the ability to waist Rania ancroachment intarnatimal status and mani eatian with East Germany The present strangtb and patmrn at thaw mamas are analymd below as a prallminary 0 a camida rattan of haw concaivable shifts in thair relative importance might laud to changes in pulley in tha future A Sacuritx The prasant cornea-Mane of German policy formulation is cmiidence in the ability and tha will of the United States to dafend the Federal Rapub c against this 03115 gamma it faars Ruasia Every lav-ice that may angthan the US invoivamant in Germany is walcamad the Atlantic cammunity NATO the the arrangemant dean net matter 39 14mg as the suhstance remains firm By tha same token however the Germans are alarmed by any develop- ment that saams t0 partend in any dagree a withdrawal by the US its SECRET DECLASSIFIED Authorityw r SECRET ccmitment The ashbm ngwamant was 3 3 interpmte Up to a paint hawaver tha resulting expressions at tanaam only confirm the immunity with which the Germans rhe sh the us cannaction which wag not motel-y a acted by 11 excitement mm thus test ban The I35 eannmtim has some marka unwary dvantagai far the Germans Fm- cme thing the US pirate-mar is aanveniently distant while this circumtmca my Mama dangar at as disangagomont it 313 renews the Gamma sari thaw canstant pressure that a cantiguaus supew power wank exam an them Farthermcre 13h US has sham rang an intern in building up tha FRG eccnomicauy militarily and diplamatically that the ERG mum mailman that it has waigmy bargaining pawer with the 38 because of the inc men of pawn it can cantrihuta in Cold War am even bananas of 17m indulgenca which the US customarily shown toward the sensitivities af its silica and dawndients In tantra aw Garmans regard the Russians as bath unanimous mid abhor-rant The Germans leak upan their human and social charactaris tics as generally crude and aensidar that this palitical systam which they practice and prapagate wauld man lm and of that 300d lifa in additian the USSR in a cold calculating predatory pawn and these wim came daal with it an aqua tax-ms 11 fans must expact ta bs ruthlessly amphite and humiliated by it Experiema ta data gins the Gamma n0 can dauca that the Russians would mailify their harshness and lower their dammda in any attempt ta fast bettar rulationa between the FREE and ma USSR It in may bacause a the con tribution 3 US unclean - might and tha integratian af the F36 11m the Went Enropam pewer campus that the Germans are many res a Russian amination a status prumrg to magma manage-nu swan has whicvad remarkabla yucca and the an mk is excelmnt far many Mara auccaasea Adenaner has led tha FRG ta a mom man respectable pm Man in tha councils 9f the Wait and Erhard his successor is cradiMd with the cannamic rev- vitaliaaticm that has awry-wk been touted an miraculous Gama-n trade and nance have sprout 1 6 cover tlu ma world Ail this as tha Germans are quick ta recagnime has boar acnemplished withaut ha expenditure af excessivaiy lama funds upon rm military trappings at great poms ntatus Indaud fact that enjaymam of a nuclaar umbrella came practically free several ye rs contributed to tha and strength ad the raw aconemic The Barman are in ganoral wall satisfi d with tho-i achievement and with than gar-aspects far slamming further ecanamically and palitically Adenmmr in canclu ing the Francm armm Treaty my have naught no mare than a amend string tn hi5 haw he my bus hnpad to gain statuw by making Garmany a 133 1de batwaen his aha-r aliies am a more and more ramote de Gaulle The a tioz camel passibly howaver 11w opened the way to a prmpact of independent Franeau ermm nuclear partne whip matead EEGREZT DECLASSIFIED 5 Authoritwan SECRET 3 the treaty has now haul presaad mm maid nualear dtfanne tilt-mag the existing US and Reunificalicm Prcuum far the West Germans ha art-united with the 3133 in remlt not enly 301 the dynamics at the prawn political situatizm but 91' the 1 goweriul farce af traditian The claaely Emit Ga man state and maple howm 1 aver sharply severed at the am of_ Warm War II geek to Inc-tame an entity again Rance unificatim is a word chi pawn in the ERG and its 1 farm is lntensifiad by the oppruaiana and d privatlans that the East Garmms suffer I lw lama farther gains dramatlc edge from the eifart ta keep Want Berlin fr to all historical amputatian thus queuing a was i unificatian shauld be an overriding theme in Fall palitical iifa In fact hawever while all sagments af the German pawple talk at reunificatlan norm is pupal-ed to take actian far it Palltical leaders wrap thamnlvu haw-fully in this inane only ta be ractzasianally derided by some lands of 01313191 far getting wt of touch with the real maa if the people which may up - euant as a to go as living with mality nmureunlfication under a make b ll ve 39a 61' un lcatim 0 11am main- lain that ultimate unification is a Halley hat that it can be achiaved enly gradually mm by evolutian In $11911 the ethos German nationalism find uni meaa'umd by the mantles a the Bald War and the potantials 131 hot war and the result is a greater receptivity ta and pragmatic fermulas than pure idaalagy at reunification can aver admit The West Germans recagnwe that the key to muni catlon with GER hangs tram the Russian belt and may are well aware the mast of wronching that hay 199 Far tha prasant at Mast may $33-26 net praparad ta pay that price 11 Can This Pattern of Mmivu Ghana The wry manual 9f Rapalle suggests macaw whathar ma force of the factara discussed abme might altar ta praduce a proiaumi revialcm cf German policy The camhlnatlons camplaxitias and shading of wants in Germany an outsida that might contribute ta such an altaratlm am lsmayingly numarous fael however that ruthless liku that whi h gcva mud ldmti catltm of tha matlves thammlves will parmlt us ta reach a sufficiant uneven A 33 urity Nuclaar a reactlen resulting from the danial of an inela- pan ant nuclear farce drive the West 0% mans mm making accommodatlan with the Clam-1y if their frus trauma arose amt af tha groblem of achlaving inwrnatlmnal nmlear status many would gain naming for they waul hardly expect that in any with the 3553 may would be allowed nuclear pcwat Nor ii chair frustration wwa related 9 aacurlty problems cauld I thay dalude themnlvas inta aupposing that they could unaided seam-ate an EECRET DECLASSIFIED Authoritmeii i 7 7 SECRET -4 - adequate deterrent Not wan in cambimxion with France could My uxpect ta do 39 11 the sauna tima it is palsihle that the Germans might seaside - that they could join with rsnce and still continua to benefit from the armchair am brella that tho U3 would fan compelied to halal over them Whether er not a development ai this mm wauid be aascnti ly harmful tn US tntamsta there wauld be an questian of a dcal with the Soviets and speculation in theraiorc beyond the map of this paymr In uni-that can Barman wen ty wauld still depend on the US nuclear umbrella and the F36 wauld have ta avuici aifronting the 313 Rance it does not appaar that nuclaar frustratian it likely to lead to a Rapalla B Sacurity General If the Ga ma should came to its that threagh slaakened will raintiva decline in powar er far anther masmns the US we longs served as a assume pratector far them than thay might well comma aarimaiy bargaining an accommodation with this Russians Without this mans-e of failing auppart hawever we dc mat use that tha when motivatians a German foreign paling as presented abouts are likely ta change and amnion ta avert the cams 01' Gar-man policy in the foreseeable futura A genuine suspicion that the Gal-mans war-q baiag inf amesad would howavar hat compounded by the other motivatians and might than be unpacte ta lam ta the Garmam making some sort of pen with Macaw Tha criterim by which tho Germs will judge the dagme of their security in the extent of US invalvamem the main evidencsg of which will be military US negatiatiam with lm Ran-31am men it th seem to put afi in efinimly any hay-e cf reuni catian will probably not sat in train a cinema wading to a Kamila 9x the rather hand what might ssem camparativaly minor changes in US military diapmitinns might well d0 30 Rauni ca ou If wa running as a further test af the Rapnna pattarn that Mos-cow were ta after East Gummy ta that ERG we should haw ta make the additiunal asaumption that lm Russians wuuld attach to the of coma canditien that wuuld madiiy Garmany's emanation with thus West What might such a can dititm be Wu suggest two possibilities ta define the spectrum of variations on this I The Russians might gain campleta neutraiiution at Germany detachment item all Western commitments and aecandarily scams pro-t visicm for cantiming a distinctive regima in East Germany In this case the EEG would ha a-xchanging the assurance emf tha Washer-n cammitmmt in tha hazard a Russian restraint It might ha that the Ger-mans would calculate that the West might still try claim a prav nt my aubuaqueny Russian SECRET DECLASSIFIED r L 4 Authorityw SECRET aggression Naverthaless the 3 36 wauld be shifting ta 3 far lass assured security than it mw anjays We daubt that the Gum-mam View of this Ruastana will in the calculable futum clung nuificiently to allow them to accapt so great an increase in rink to their nattcn it is cancaivahle that the Gear's-11am roam cansider Moacaw ta have beam at uoftancd up for example by m if a growing threat ram China at aver by fear that the ERG itwtf fear one ream-m or another might trigger a majnr that Russians would heeome relativeiy trust- worthy Any modification in Russian attitudss on this scam weuld imply so fundamental 3 Chang in the entire intarnational situatioa as to lift thin tuna cut at the contaxt 9f thia panpar Th autumn might Mqui neutralimatian but under jaunt guarantee with the US In eifact Garmany weuld withdraw arm the Waatorn Mien samples but remain uncut Us pratmtion In this situation the US would hurt a vato pawer and woum undertm the guarmtae only if it felt that the naw arrmgamant would he in its awn interest Canceivahly Gar-mm pranum might move the US against it awn better camaivably the situatian would ha summed an a mitigating of the USSR as significant as ta changa all the cartainly grave questianu would bu raised about the crite 3 18 that in tha View wauid justify intarvention By and lama however in a at this start tin Us waum retain a va-ica and tharefore Mr definitim agella clan mt cam inter the- mutton Cone 1131911 We beliave that the likelihood a a madam Rapallor is 91113311 far tha rcasens given above Rathar as a practieat matter the Garmms are likely t0 adopt th mast axibla attitudes to avoid aampramising Wastem suppert anti loaning that in uence in Weamrn enunciln Should USwSoviet pracae t9 the point at pml iminatry uncle r- atancung on tha garland outlines 9i a pwpmal ta cattle the whole templex of German Btrlin problama it need amt be expectad that proposal be Injected eat at hand by the F216 Vary likaly the Faderal Rapublic wauld seek ta exhaust all available means at sansultatim within the Wastun alliance ta cambat any elements it faund unpalatable The in uence at We Garmmy within that alliance amt particularly its bilateral in uences with that US seems suffi ien y wall utab shed ta guarantee a full Mating far its abjectionu parting-s even ta the point at implying what wnuld amaunt ta 3 German who on anything that approaches the haart caf ERG interasts Still wt suggest that the Want Gas-mans if ima with a package might with ta test its eiamsuts not only s parataly but as a whale being prapued ta swallaw an or answer unyalatabla upset at the propcsal if tha settlemmnt in its entiraty guarmtaed mma substantial pragmn toward ameltarattng the pram sitmtian and ramaim camgatible with sacurity mat a mum prmpuct of raw unificatien instead 05 bolting the corral tha Watt Garmunn might in web SECS DECLASSIFIE-D- Authorityw f 2 - 7' SEERET circumptancas mun a talent fer bargaining in HM with the famula um Iang age wiclaly aux-rent among paiiticiazzs and jaurnnlists in the ERG No concessions withaut countermcencassima In cifsct of a Mums is likely ta renter a asutripetal rather than a centrifugal fares on than ERG A with the intarnlliad dabate an the strategy and centre 95 nuclear weapcna an int reamed satin-a af Gal-mm parties ipation and commitment wauld probabiy remit rather than a sense of alignation item the alliance Alamo all the trend would rail that alemant 95 West Garman palicy which came clans tha heart mi the matter namely the continuing need to rel-y can the US as any and pratmmr Fundamentally the West Germans are intamsted in the US not the USSR Both pecnlativa cansidar-ation a altemativaa which fall within tha concapt at Rapallo and th passib itias a 331 mam mad magnum cf smcalled or with tha U553 which by themmlves mead not invalve th tantra issue of a Gunman lament arm lik y to be judged in tha FRG by ne test 9f haw gemistent they am with the vital pra-Us tram cf Was German policy SECRET This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu