January 9 2018 Testimony before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities China’s Pursuit of Emerging and Exponential Technologies Paul Scharre Senior Fellow and Director Technology and National Security Center for a New American Security Chairwoman Stefanik Ranking Member Langevin and distinguished members thank you for inviting me to testify today We live in a time of dizzying technological change The information revolution which has now been underway for several decades continues to unfold in surprising ways The United States was a firstmover in information technology By leveraging advances in the microprocessor revolution in the 1970s and 1980s the United States led the world in the development of personal computers the internet the Global Positioning System GPS and other information-based technologies Today information technology has spread to nearly every corner of our lives It has also spread around the world While the United States is still the global leader in information technology other nations are now also significant players China in particular is a major and fast-growing player in information technology 1 As the world’s third largest economy behind the United States and the European Union and as the most populous nation in the world China has major structural advantages that make it a key competitor in information technology China’s population in particular is a key source of strength because it is a potential source of data on human behavior and genomics Combined with a more lax cultural attitude towards data protection and personal privacy this data can help fuel advances artificial intelligence and synthetic biology 2 The Information Revolution There are three broad trends underlying the information revolution the datafication of our world increasing networking and connectivity and increasingly intelligent machines These trends intersect and reinforce each other in powerful ways and understanding these trends can help in understanding some of China’s structural advantages Datafication of our world The modern information economy produces over 2 5 exabytes of data daily an exabyte is one quintillion bytes or 10 18 bytes 3 In the past few years the information revolution has generated more data than existed in the entire 5 000 years of recorded human history This data comes in a variety of forms mapping data showing patterns of human activity and the locations of people and things human communications data showing people’s networks and the content of their interactions search shopping and entertainment data showing people’s preferences and interests and as gene sequencing becomes cheaper the digitization of human genetic data This trend in the datafication of our world is digitizing and quantifying the world around us our lives our bodies and our likes and desires Much of this data is unstructured and unlabeled making it a sea of potential information if one can sort and organize this data to yield useful insights Networking and connectivity The world is increasingly networked making it possible to transmit and share this new ocean of digital data In 2017 global internet users topped 3 8 billion people more than half of the world’s population Nearly 5 billion people use cell phones – roughly twothirds of the world Nearly 3 billion people are active social media users And global connectivity continues to grow at a breakneck pace Every day more than a million new people join social media 4 As more people come online their data comes online as well They too become digitized People and companies are also sharing this data sending it over networks that are growing in scale and bandwidth The number of connected devices is growing even faster than internet users An estimated 20 billion devices will be connected to this sprawling global network in 2018 Internet of Things IoT devices which include smart meters medical devices home appliances and industrial applications are growing at the fastest rate and by 2021 are expected to account for over half of all connected devices 5 These devices create data and share it across a global network that will traffic over 150 exabytes of data per month in 2018 Global internet traffic is growing even faster than connectivity at a rate of 24% per year Broadband speeds are increasing to account for this data and are expected to roughly double over the next 5 years 6 It is not just the amount of connected people devices and data and that is increasing but the volume and speed at which they are communicating More intelligent machines These trends have been made possible because of exponential growth in computer processing power which enables ever-smaller and more powerful computers tablets smartphones and devices For the past fifty years this trend has been encapsulated in a maxim known as Moore’s Law named for Intel co-founder Gordon Moore which has observed that chip performance has doubled roughly every two years 7 The rate of advancement of CPU central processing unit performance has slowed in recent years While still improving exponentially it has been at a markedly slower pace as chips have approached the nanometer scale 8 At the same time in the past few years there has been an explosion in deep learning a powerful machine learning technique used to enable artificial intelligence AI This has yielded resulted in tremendous progress on long-standing AI problems such as object recognition and natural language processing Deep learning draws on large amounts of parallel computer processing made possible because of advances in graphics processing units GPUs driven by the gaming industry as well as large amounts of data In deep learning deep neural networks train on millions of pieces of data to learn how to recognize objects translate between languages or perform many other cognitive tasks Deep learning systems can even learn from unlabeled data a process known as unsupervised learning 9 Thus advances in increasingly powerful computer processors have enabled the production of myriad devices that collect vast quantities of data which in turn have fueled learning machines that can process and make sense of this data 2 China’s population is a major structural advantage in this information revolution as it allows the pooling of large amounts of data China already has 730 million internet users a figure that will grow as the country becomes increasingly urbanized and connected Chinese users also appear more comfortable sharing their data than Western counterparts which companies can use to train more sophisticated algorithms to understand human behavior 10 China also combines a dynamic private sector with a government that plans and executes long-term strategies to increase China’s competitiveness in key technology areas China has used this in recent years to execute plans to leap forward on artificial intelligence synthetic biology and quantum computing all key technologies tied to the information revolution Artificial Intelligence China is a global leader in artificial intelligence second only to the United States Baidu Tencent and Alibaba – all Chinese firms – are top-tier AI companies and China also has a vibrant AI startup scene 11 Since 2014 China has surpassed the United States in the total number of publications and cited publications in deep learning an important sub-field of AI 12 The United States still leads the world in AI patents but China is growing at a faster rate 13 While the quantity of publications does not necessarily equate to quality Chinese AI researchers perform well in international competitions 14 Chinese teams “dominated” the ImageNet visual image recognition competition for the past two years and a Chinese start-up won the Facial Recognition Prize Challenge hosted by the Intelligence Advanced Projects Agency IARPA 15 Overall Chinese AI researchers are not as experienced as U S counterparts but they are improving 16 In the 2017 meeting of the Association of the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence AAAI there were roughly as many papers accepted from China as there were from the United States 17 In July 2017 China published a national strategy for artificial intelligence the “New Generation AI Development Plan ” 18 Under this plan China’s goal is to be the “premier global AI innovation center” by 2030 19 To achieve this goal China’s plan includes improving in areas where China is currently weak such as human capital by focusing on the education and recruitment of top AI talent As one example Chinese-born and American-educated AI researcher Qi Lu recently left an executive vice president role at Microsoft to become the Chief Operating Officer at Baidu 20 News reports indicate Chinese firms see the Trump Administration’s anti-immigrant policies as an opportunity to draw away top U S technology talent as immigrants are responsible for one-quarter of startups in the United States 21 China also has significant advantages in translating private sector advances in AI into national security applications because of its model of military-civil fusion 22 In the United States the Department of Defense DoD has struggled to break down largely self-imposed barriers to working with non-traditional defense companies that lock the DoD out of crucial innovation in places like Silicon Valley China has a closer relationship between the public and private sector and is able to more easily “spin in” private sector innovations into the military through their strategy of militarycivil fusion This means that not only is China a significant global player in artificial intelligence – with a plan to be the global leader by 2030 – but that China has major advantages in translating these private-sector gains into national security applications 3 Synthetic Biology and Genomics The information revolution has opened up new opportunities in biotechnology as computers have made genome sequencing increasingly affordable The cost of sequencing the human genome has been falling exponentially at a rate faster than Moore’s Law 23 In turn the acquisition of large datasets of human genomes has significant research potential as these datasets can be mined by data analytics and AI for correlations between genes and health outcomes A Chinese company Beijing Genomics Institute BGI is the world’s largest genetic research center BGI has a U S -based center headquartered in Cambridge and has sequenced the genomes of millions of Americans BGI has robust support from the Chinese government and partnerships with Chinese military research institutes such as the Academy of Military Medical Sciences 24 At the national level the Chinese government is proactively engaged in developing its biotech sector and has created multiple national-level biotechnology development plans One of the strategies China uses to advance its biotechnology industry as in other areas is “going out” and “bringing in” foreign innovation by investing in foreign companies 25 For example in 2013 BGI acquired nextgeneration genome sequencing technologies by purchasing the U S company Complete Genomics 26 The importance of genomics is likely to increase as the cost of gene sequencing continues to fall and larger datasets of human genomes are established making possible large-scale analysis of human genes Given that the ultimate aim is modifying life itself it is nearly impossible to overstate the long-term potential of synthetic biology and genomics As this field matures China is wellpositioned to be a global leader Quantum Computing Quantum computing is another important area of information-related technologies and one in which China has shown striking recent advances Quantum computing is an entirely different method of computing from current approaches and relies on the unusual properties of quantum physics Quantum technology has many potential national security applications including cryptography remote sensing and secure communications 27 Chinese researchers have made recent strides in quantum technology demonstrating a 10-qubit quantum processor and a quantum communications satellite in 2017 28 China is following up on these advances with national-level investments in quantum technologies China recently launched the Jinan Project a plan to build a secure quantum computer network and is building a $10 billion National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences 29 Conclusion As the world’s third-largest economy and most populous nation China has many inherent structural advantages in competing in high-technology areas China has a dynamic private sector with both large established firms and dynamic start-ups and a large pool of potential talent to draw upon In places where China has weaknesses such as the quality of human capital in some fields China is actively working to improve by recruiting top talent from abroad China’s population increasingly networked and digitized is a major source of potential data which is a critical resource for 4 information-enabled innovation One of China’s biggest strengths relative to the United States however is the government’s willingness to develop and follow through on large-scale long-tem investment plans in key technology areas China has repeatedly demonstrated an ability in multiple technology areas to acquire foreign expertise by investing in foreign companies and then using that to improve Chinese indigenous capabilities China’s capacity for executing long-term strategies for technology development should not be underestimated and Chinese plans to become the global leader in critical technology areas such as artificial intelligence should be taken seriously Further Reading For further reading see Michael J Biercuk and Richard Fontaine “The Leap Into Quantum Technology A Primer for National Security Professionals ” War on the Rocks November 17 2017 https warontherocks com 2017 11 leap-quantum-technology-primer-national-securityprofessionals Elsa Kania “Battlefield Singularity Artificial Intelligence Military Revolution and China’s Future Military Power ” Center for a New American Security Washington DC November 2017 https www cnas org publications reports battlefield-singularity-artificial-intelligence-militaryrevolution-and-chinas-future-military-power CNAS Funding CNAS is a national security research and policy institution committed to the highest standards of organizational intellectual and personal integrity The Center retains sole editorial control over its ideas projects and productions and the content of its publications reflects only the views of their authors In keeping with its mission and values CNAS does not engage in lobbying activity and complies fully with all applicable federal state and local laws Accordingly CNAS will not engage in any representation or advocacy on behalf of any entities or interests and to the extent that the Center accepts funding from foreign sources its activities will be limited to bona fide scholastic academic and research-related activities consistent with applicable federal law A full list of CNAS supporters and the center's funding guidelines can be found here https www cnas org supportcnas Consistent with Rule 11 clause 2 g 5 of the Rules of the U S House of Representatives for the 115th Congress a detailed list of CNAS federal contracts or grants including subcontracts and subgrants or contracts or payments originating with a foreign government received during the current and two previous calendar years has been provided to this committee as an attachment 5 PAUL SCHARRE is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security He is author of the forthcoming book Army of None Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War to be published in April 2018 From 2008-2013 Mr Scharre worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense OSD where he played a leading role in establishing policies on unmanned and autonomous systems and emerging weapons technologies Mr Scharre led the DoD working group that drafted DoD Directive 3000 09 establishing the Department’s policies on autonomy in weapon systems Mr Scharre also led DoD efforts to establish policies on intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance ISR programs and directed energy technologies Mr Scharre was involved in the drafting of policy guidance in the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and Secretary-level planning guidance His most recent position was Special Assistant to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Prior to joining OSD Mr Scharre served as a special operations reconnaissance team leader in the Army’s 3rd Ranger Battalion and completed multiple tours to Iraq and Afghanistan He is a graduate of the Army’s Airborne Ranger and Sniper Schools and Honor Graduate of the 75th Ranger Regiment’s Ranger Indoctrination Program Mr Scharre has published articles in the New York Times Foreign Policy Politico Proceedings Armed Forced Journal Joint Force Quarterly Military Review and in academic technical journals He has presented at the United Nations NATO Defence College Chatham House National Defense University and numerous other defense-related conferences on robotics and autonomous systems defense institution building ISR hybrid warfare and the Iraq war He has appeared as a commentator on CNN MSNBC NPR the BCC and Swiss and Canadian television Mr Scharre is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations He holds an M A in Political Economy and Public Policy and a B S in Physics cum laude both from Washington University in St Louis 6 Notes 1 Chris Dong “China ICT Market Trends Complexity Potential ” presentation IDC Web Conference July 6 2017 2 “The Algorithm Kingdom China May Match or Beat American in AI ” The Economist July 15 2017 https www economist com news business 21725018-its-deep-pool-data-may-let-it-lead-artificialintelligence-china-may-match-or-beat-america Dong “China ICT Market ” slide 7 3 IBM “10 Key Marketing Trends for 2017 ” 3 https public dhe ibm com common ssi ecm wr en wrl12345usen watson-customer-engagementwatson-marketing-wr-other-papers-and-reports-wrl12345usen-20170719 pdf 4 Simon Kemp “The Global State of the Internet in April 2017 ” TheNextWeb https thenextweb com contributors 2017 04 11 current-global-state-internet # tnw_iUhkTTm1 5 CISCO “The Zettabyte Era Trends and Analysis ” June 7 2017 https www cisco com c en us solutions collateral service-provider visual-networking-index-vni vnihyperconnectivity-wp html 6 Ibid 7 For several decades computing power doubled roughly every 20 months Over the past decade this pace has slowed to every 2 to 2 5 years Michael Kanellos “Moore’s Law to roll on for another decade ” CNet February 11 2003 https www cnet com news moores-law-to-roll-on-for-another-decade Don Clark “Intel Rechisels the Tablet on Moore’s Law ” July 16 2015 https blogs wsj com digits 2015 07 16 intelrechisels-the-tablet-on-moores-law mg prod accounts-wsj Actual data on transistor count per chip is available at “Transistor Count ” OMICS International http research omicsgroup org index php Transistor_count 8 Top500 “Highlights of the 50th Top500 List ” presentation slides 6-8 https www top500 org lists 2017 11 slides Tom Simonite “Moore’s Law is Dead Now What ” MIT Technology Review May 13 2016 https www technologyreview com s 601441 moores-law-is-dead-nowwhat 9 Robert D Hof “Deep Learning With massive amounts of computational power machines can now recognize objects and translate speech in real time Artificial intelligence is finally getting smart ” MIT Technology Review https www technologyreview com s 513696 deep-learning 10 “The Algorithm Kingdom ” 11 Elsa Kania “Battlefield Singularity Artificial Intelligence Military Revolution and China’s Future Military Power ” Center for a New American Security Washington DC November 2017 https www cnas org publications reports battlefield-singularity-artificial-intelligence-militaryrevolution-and-chinas-future-military-power 12 U S National Science and Technology Council “The National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan ” October 2016 https www nitrd gov PUBS national_ai_rd_strategic_plan pdf 13 “The Algorithm Kingdom ” 14 Kania “Battlefield Singularity ” 8 15 Aaron Tilley “China's Rise In The Global AI Race Emerges As It Takes Over The Final ImageNet Competition ” July 31 2017 https www forbes com sites aarontilley 2017 07 31 china-aiimagenet #4bef5f25170a “Yitu Tech Wins the 1st Place in Identification Accuracy In Face Recognition Prize Challenge 2017 ” PRNewswire November 03 2017 https www prnewswire com news-releases yitu-techwins-the-1st-place-in-identification-accuracy-in-face-recognition-prize-challenge-2017-300549292 html 16 Kania “Battlefield Singularity ” 8 7 17 “AAAI-17 Accepted Papers ” http www aaai org Conferences AAAI 2017 aaai17accepted-papers pdf or Sarah Zhang “China’s Artificial-Intelligence Boom ” The Atlantic February 16 2017 https www theatlantic com technology archive 2017 02 china-artificial-intelligence 516615 18 “State Council Notice on the Issuance of the New Generation AI Development Plan ” August 20 2017 http www gov cn zhengce content 2017-07 20 content_5211996 htm 19 Kania “Battlefield Singularity ” 9 20 “The Algorithm Kingdom ” 21 Meng Jing “Chinese firms fight to lure top artificial intelligence talent from Silicon Valley ” South China Morning Post April 2 2017 http www scmp com tech china-tech article 2084171 chinese-firms-fightlure-top-artificial-intelligence-talent-silicon Adam Bluestein “The Most Entrepreneurial Group in America Wasn't Born in America ” Inc https www inc com magazine 201502 adam-bluestein the-mostentrepreneurial-group-in-america-wasnt-born-in-america html Nick Wingfield “In Blow to Tech Industry Trump Shelves Start-Up Immigrant Rule ” The New York Times July 10 2017 https www nytimes com 2017 07 10 technology in-blow-to-tech-industry-trump-shelves-start-upimmigrant-rule html _r 0 Sara Ashley O’Brien “Trump administration loses bid to delay Obama's 'startup visa ’” CNN com December 2 2017 http money cnn com 2017 12 02 technology internationalentrepreneur-rule-delay index html U S Citizenship and Immigration Service “USCIS to Begin Accepting Applications under the International Entrepreneur Rule ” December 14 2017 https www uscis gov news news-releases uscis-begin-accepting-applications-under-internationalentrepreneur-rule 22 Kania “Battlefield Singularity ” 12 23 U S National Human Genome Research Institute “The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome ” https www genome gov 27565109 the-cost-of-sequencing-a-human-genome 24 Elsa Kania unpublished manuscript 25 Ibid 26 Complete Genomics “About Us ” http www completegenomics com 27 Michael J Biercuk and Richard Fontaine “The Leap Into Quantum Technology A Primer for National Security Professionals ” War on the Rocks November 17 2017 https warontherocks com 2017 11 leapquantum-technology-primer-national-security-professionals 28 Chao Song et al “10-qubit entanglement and parallel logic operations with a superconducting circuit ” Physical Review Letters 119 2017 https arxiv org pdf 1703 10302 pdf Gabriel Popkin “China’s quantum satellite achieves ‘spooky action’ at record distance ” Science June 15 2017 http www sciencemag org news 2017 06 china-s-quantum-satellite-achieves-spooky-action-recorddistance 29 Tom Ward “China Set to Launch the World’s First Quantum Communication Network ” Futurism July 16 2017 https futurism com china-set-to-launch-the-worlds-first-quantum-communication-network Jeffrey Lin and P W Singer “China is opening a new quantum research supercenter ” Australian Popular Science October 12 2017 http www popsci com au tech computing china-is-opening-a-new-quantum-researchsupercenter 475275 8