UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2014-20439 Doc No C05783818 Date 09 30 2015 RELEASE IN FULL From Sent To Subject Attachments Mills Cheryl D MillsCD@state gov Tuesday April 26 2011 6 24 AM Fw S Memo S Note Predictions 04 13 11 docx S Note Predictions 04 13 11 docx From Ross Alec Sent Monday April 25 2011 02 18 PM To Mills Cheryl D Cc Toil Nora F Subject S Memo Hi Cheryl Hope you're well I wanted to flag the attached note for S to ensure it didn't get lost in the stack I think some important content in here that I wanted to make sure she read Also pasted below Talk soon --- Alec SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED April 13 2011 NOTE FOR THE SECRETARY FROM S SAIT — Alec Ross SUBJECT Disruptions that will impact your remaining tenure Two years ago we had a meeting in which we discussed how technology would disrupt the conduct of our foreign policy for both good and ill Looking back some of the predictions I made which many thought a little crazy proved true • Technology social media would devolve power from governments and large institutions to individuals and small institutions enabling almost leaderless political movements We saw this with Tunisia and Egypt and now in Syria • Powerful virtual organizations would emerge with globally distributed members and followers instead of paid staff and a Web address instead of a street address We saw this with Wikileaks • Internet-enabled cell phones would proliferate and become a central feature of global economic development Since our conversation the number of handsets worldwide has grown from 4 billion to 5 billion with 75% of that growth in the developing world Remarkably there are now more cell phones in Africa than Europe • Authoritarian regimes would respond to increased Internet access by tightening restrictions on free expression and heightening surveillance for the purpose of squelching UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2014-20439 Doc No C05783818 Date 09 30 2015 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2014-20439 Doc No C05783818 Date 09 30 2015 dissent We see this throughout the Middle East and much of the Caucuses and Southeast Asia Between now and January 2013 technology will continue to play a very disruptive role in the conduct of our foreign policy again for both good and ill Specifically I predict the following • There will be technology-based breakthrough innovations in education and finance Population segments particularly women and girls previously denied schooling or financial services will gain access Networks do not manifest racial gender or ethnic bias • These new breakthrough innovations will create many new billionaires in the developing world There will be several more Mo Ibrahims emerging in the next 18 months Additionally these developing-world innovations will strengthen the local workforces and increase the size of its middle class • Secretary Gates' designation of cyber-space as a theater of war will be validated as nations build their defensive and offensive capabilities in a cyber-space arms race Resulting asymmetries in capability will stress relations with emerging powers • Expanding Internet use in Muslim majority countries will routinely aggravate crosscultural conflict i e draw Mohammed day Koran burning injecting fringe American politics into foreign affairs • Political power will increasingly operate through regional and global youth cultures that share ideas and tactics through the Internet Previously unknown political leaders and movements will emerge to challenge more established leaders • Response from autocratic states to the Arab Spring will be deep investment in control technologies for content restriction surveillance and cyber-attacks on opponents • Ubiquity of online data government finance corporate personal plus citizen journalists armed with camera-enabled mobile phones will expose corruption that will elevate demands for good government • Advances in translation technologies will lower barriers for cross-cultural exchange education and scientific cooperation • Ad hoc hacker organizations like the anonymous group which attacked Amazon and PayPal post Wikileaks will increase in number and sophistication and will successfully disrupt a Western government I believe your remaining time as Secretary of State will continue with technology-fueled disruptive change The measure of the Department's success in the face of this change will be UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2014-20439 Doc No C05783818 Date 09 30 2015 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2014-20439 Doc No C05783818 Date 09 30 2015 the creativity speed and flexibility of our responses As Clarence Darrow said It is not the strongest of the species that survive nor the most intelligent but the one most responsive to change UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2014-20439 Doc No C05783818 Date 09 30 2015