@rw% max we 83C if MET g7 Eleventh U S Japan 52% Security Subcommittee Meeting SSC 31 July 2 August 1979 Honeiulu teem Hawaii 9018 F1 GFFICE TEE SECRETARY 9F BEFXENSE Iii In ow Mu maw gm oui dwmixa e waa if 1114 Cave 46 rc ay ws f Aac c2aana Ma f f m a $0147 May m MW EVI 67 44 m a w Wm 3a Pia 55% 27 1mm kwaim ream 5 6 aw Md M4 Mw y fg ELEVEKTH MEETING THE UNITED CGEMITTEE EOTEL HAWAII SCHEESLE OF EVEHTS 28 Suly 19 $909 camvsahyau and party arrives BNL 29 Jul 1979 - v_ SSC XI Administrative effice opens Malikai Roam 1915 Japanese dalegatisn arrivaa Hat by BABE Sheltan and Mr thi Japanese Consul General 1230 washingten delegation arrives HNL Met by LTGEH 1304 Gnli hosted by Admiral Weisger av Marine GC 30 July 1979 '5 9903 Amb Mansfield arrivas Met ERL kw by LTGEH fasten 5 Japanase affice call an Admiral 50 offiee weisnex Mr Watari Mr akajima Ex Sakanja ee smloae Coffae fer ramainder af a iEGa Japanese delegation haate by with $02 Band haa s zaasmizea Bri fing far Sa anesa CCBR BY sea with haa s A 1115 13 5 Japanege lunch 3 23 massz aymn schafieka 3323 1 lz wi ea A5313 taut af military facilities far Jayanege at 1 1400 1480 1698 141 _1445 1615m1315 31 July 1979 0909mzzoo 1215u1330 1460 1799 133 2o3u 1 August 1979 9900 1200 1215 2336 1496m1 $0 1333 szaw Japanese retuz ta Ilikai Entei except in VADM Sakanja Us Unilataral Organizational meeting VAEM Sakonje affica call on EAEM Wantwarth Aeccmyanied by CHER Saita LEO Jayanase Unilateral Organizatianal Meeting Ks host get acquainted Caaktail party Firgt Sessign Lunchaon heated by watari Recaptian in honax-af SSC X1 participants hasted by Consul General Ohki Third Session Ho hast counterpart lunnheon Faurth Sa$$ien aeegtian inwhan rwaf 6G3 artici ant$ haatad by Aggt Seeretary xg iffext Kauai Pearl arbar Kauai Knew Imperial Suite 3110 Suite Rana Suite Hila Suita Japanese Ccnu gulate Alaha casual attire Bus transpartatiaa departs Ilikai at 18 0 returns 2045 Bila Suite I ividually arranged ila Suit arassay 3313 Hale Xaa Hetal Bus txa ayartatian aparta Ilikai at 1323 2615w 2 A gust 19 9 G990m1230 G 60wl 39 9900-1100 121501330' 1400 1799 1790 3 August 1979 0939 1000 1145 1580 1700Gyen sessian Meeting i necassary eax1 Harbor tour for Jaganese Military to military Meeting Lunchasn bested by Asst Secretary Mcaiffert Final Session Free discussion Amb Manafield departs LTGEK Ginn offica call on KLEQEN Past n Japanese delegation departs elegation eparts and party and xemaindar of Embassy Toyko party departs TBA Beat land ing ESE Hana Suite 3116 Suite ENE 361 office HHL A 3 ti Tabte cf Caatents - Prindgai s Book Itinerary Scaga Paper - fer the lth Security Heatlag Po$nt apers for the Heating Sa5$ian 0 Ses ta 2 2 2 2 3 2 h Session 3 - #12 k 3 Eai aiinaa 3 2 Pragase xatama t Sancti na gsib a imgravemants iagraghias verviaw of Stabai a elcpmant u ch Affact US'3a an Secur ty e at$on BS gag Current Asian Situatian GS t5 3 a sessicn Summary and Ta king ap f Japas s Sa urlty Policy ia tha 3386 s 993 Paper - Security ta the 1985's Status af Quidstine m$ ementation Hilastanas Araa an Agricipated aesults LEAQ Sessian Summary aa Talking Papar Japan 5 efensa asture In tha 98055w Japanese Paper on the Defense Kclatlanship with the 35 Status 0 regeat Jaint efanse Ccoperatio 56mmary 0f 97 Bef n$e white Paper tong Term Prospects for Japan s Defense 83 force Pastare in Asia and ndian Ocea in 1989 s as LEAB Session Summary and Talking aper Defense Cooperatlan abjactiv s Camparatliity interaper ability and Technalogy Traasfar Cast $harlag as Sessien Sum ary and Taikiag ag r East of as Forcas in Js an Tabla Cast Bf srsas Yable Seat iharing 0 FY 8Q Stratagy mag $3b es 539 nnua parati g 65 a aiataiaing BS aflitary Farces ara gn tauntrias Areas far Eiscuasiana utgi e tha Eaati ga Be egazian 5x2 rs e aaca 9f a agat an 13th 5 8 i Ti E Fae F Wei Gi i ht $8 3 3 mm Tim Lag swam was 99 4mm GREMHS mama - - have cf infem tw grw on was eavaragg - Mai 3t Gi a h and 135 595% mg snmnas gamer Stra Barrage mm #55 5 Snarease Japamse awareness of our 2 343 31 saint cameras in that gush-oi security 3 3 gul anvira ment dian acean 353w security S tua- Maura this Javaaesa m and regain a 537% er tianvih 35 Asia f acifk power ascribe uhaIIenges in is a way that Envtzas 5a tn rewnswar as Resamses this adequacy 6 1 33 am afforts 2 Jmnase Raver Support Japan Ski s probe future on Security intentinns In ragianai sasarsty Hi T i 1330K invoivwsm 3% 3590v3 06 STATQS 3F a aterai #33n4 155 Insure that ua Is pailticaliv niag committad tn bi atars plaaniag to mLmarm Joint Exarcisas gratify dafmse weds sumac 116 Training matinuatizm an soahistication of such intakiiga te affarts futurm Exchange khe um U S 6 Gad LEAB #3 153% 3 35 38mm a BtScuss the a eqaasy of Jawn s effarts aa farca En v ew of 511 crisis iiMitatie s Sacurity 1 wag-12m 35 ma a So e 3 311 32 JCS Ci c t ascribe rea stinaity force pasture 339371 13 in Ash have and exyiafn any aggraciation $513 3649 in the shared necessity In maintaining Emit i i ia mm ceazs a trade access to these wear araa Km Kiddie East SI 1333 3 US in laa eaan Activitiasz uv 1 twin far as 3n Asia in 3339 s 5133 5 a Cat'smrin 15$ anaassv Promote a furthar mansion a 2 9 aaA- Technaiagy 5 mat-starwg masurcs am mien 1 wags Transfer CB informality various possib ittes afuse Japaneia criticism cf wean 594799 l taraperah iv PA a 5 Human max-ea to our Miles Lay far a amines Cmartson with to discuss its dwETopmeat mama logy transfer etct M W- 1- 7 M 33C Sthedu e avents 1 ste at Silka uniess atherwi e acted an ax July 3Q $8 Unilatera time ta b annuunced By 891 Dewey E338v2333 He has Get Raquai aed tacktaii an Tues az Jul 31 0300 3239 53$ Sassien i Izoauikos Lunch hasted by Japanase Delegatiaa 1h56 700 55$ Sessian i 4 Dinner hasted by Japanese Consul genera JapaneSe Cansuiate Wednesday Augast 9909 1299 SSE Sass 0 i 1 liG wf GG Lunch as desired 1 06w3700 555 Session iv 1830w2005 Raception hasted by Hr Hg iffert 8312 Kna Hate Thursday Adgust 2 7 1209m1h Lunch hasted by as aiegation Fina SSE Session ress far all meetings and at ociai functions aioha casual PAPER F83 T i ELEVEHTH 3 Ju y 2 1979 Last year s meet ng reactivated the $58 fallawing a four year h atus The 11th meetIng wf1 again be held n Hawaii and wiIE tac ude pn icy iave represeatat vas from 353 State Embassy Tokyo an on the as side and frum the Hini try of Fara g Affairs the efeasa Agency and the m assy on the Jayanese stde ecauge the SEC nvofves Hashington and Takyo policy'makfng 3eveis has traditionally p aced a pram$um an infarma and candid aiscussions and nes not saek to pro uce negatiated agreements or ccmmuniquas 3t aan reinferca what wa are saeking to accamp3ish in hi3atera defense p ann ng as we 33 explore ether aspects of defense tcageratian efensa is n6 icnger a tabao subject in Japan in part th s reflects iqgrgas ng apprehensians over the growth of Sovie mititary puwer fn the Pacific the ant5cipate depiayment of the Hi sk access to facilities in Vietnam and expanded m1 tary activities in the dispute Earthern Terr tor es in part it refiects concarns ahaut the US efense pasture aad the reEIabillty of our support Th3 Self befense Farces preseat y enjoy unprecedented agprovai of the Japanase public a bfaad nattoaal cansensus supperts conttnuattan 6f the Security Treaty The mcderate oppusitian parties Kcmeitc Democratic SocEaIists and New Liberal Cfub have according y been mare support va of Japan s 313iance with the US Equally important Japanese gavernment efficiais hava bacome noticeably mare flexib3e and positive Gwer 2h past two years in dealing wEth us on defense related matters Support fer the Security Yraaty and the 59F by the Pat has nut an undermined much of the apposition the Left but has facused Japaaese cancern mare than ever as the Seviet threats The ene percent limitation on defense spanding Is n fanger a critical isgue and has aiready been exceaded if US pracedures are tiFize The cruciaf questioa that needs ta be addressed by bath the us and tha Japanase is at how much money shouid be apenz hat for what puryases $he partlaigants at the 35$ ar ga eraliy w 13 ng aa eagar ta expand efaase cocgaratinh They racagniza t a viraues cf interapera i ty they aak aw3ed a ha neaassity a expag a cast sharing arrangamanta thay w 3 be far waya a Encreaxing anagerattan Ea sagh ataag as intsiligance 1agist ss exert sas an training 33thaugh t zy want ta take their iima ta evaiag J pana a mathedaEcgEes far maatEng cu asirasg fag kg rathar hfaa gau ed w ase Eatgraat $3 gciicy and farca struatarg ara hat aa fina ta aapite thase gammqn garaeptinns t 3 g ara a sg sif g bureauarazis i 83 33 gtwaa Fara a 3 6 33a aff c a s ah ch may ha raf ected Ea 53 3xahaagsg 2 - 91- u In at ravm P hn tg mm - 3 5 1 - ff - 7 2 31 Gar broad 9633s in the talks must he to tonset date aurrent tre s in our efense re at onsh y keep Japan clase y tied to the nited States assure that ag Jagan s efense capab 11t as graw they camptemant our own eff rts and prevent trade frictians jemgar iztng sasurity nonparatlen t this 55 we s aui $62k tkese specific abjett3ves 3 increase Japanese awareness 9 our mdtua cancarns in the gEob gacurity envircnment we wiit review evelapmeats ia SALT tha H dd a East Asia tha Pas and tha growth af Saviet asaventiana mil tary particuiariy naval pawer we wiil ampha ize that 33 cr alliad farces cauaterEng the Savists anywhere are acting 3130 In the gimba Entarast of Japan and that Japanese forces caunteri g the Sevtats around the apanega 1ittar i are ast n in interests of the United States we need an the one hand to reassure the Japanese bf aur determination ta remain a majer Pacific payer inciuding mafntenantz sf gar m 3itary prgseace and an other hand to daacrtba the chaftenges we face in ways that invite the $63 to recanaidar the adequacy cf their own efforts -hath in providing far their defense and In of our effarts 2 in ure the Japane e that the USS $5 go it ca y cammitted ta bilateral p3ann n as a maans by which both sidgs can identify their defense needs mark cleariy a d to support tha cantfnuatiaa and saphist3cat3on cf such in the future we wt grovi e our assessment of the p ann ng effurt undar the gni elines ta data aad indicate cur suppart far increasingly realist c scenarias in the future We can expect the Japanese ta query as rather specif ca31y on such matters as jaint training an exercise sacure ccmmun atfan$ inteliigence exchangas etc 3 realisticaily an fgrce pastnra tn tha Pacific and 3nd an eeaa areas an explain ta tha Japanese car aggreciatian 6f tha shared necessity 3a maintaining frae trada accass ta thase acean araas We neea tn a d raaEism ta Jaganase which has questianad on accasian car ab 3 ty ta game to thair iata defanse 33 times of a war dw a canfiict Ra try ta aagamp3 5 this by mora axgiictly the 3inkagas batxaen an camm tma ts i3 East afa an the i dit iast an t e 3ndfract thraatg extrayagia af threats tc gagan g gacarftg 3% want ta carfect mtg imgr3$s $ns frem the p35 a $1get g3 wi i emphasize that fergag the in tha Faaifia 35$ i dian ara a are En ha Eatarasts cf gpaa 2e 98% at 33 farcgg ara aapa a a agiaygag gag a asi a3 ihay gn gtn3 t at earmarkiag fercas far a zertaia araa ag at mean uagqaai raat gag g at ar 5ut is mareE a a gasa h e $ r at we wag t6 Eadicate tka firame g 9f gar cammitmgat aa the a an Fercgs wh a gar e%1ams a5 acia 13 fram tha Iata wha G f faraa may ac3 aa He hnui e ashfa 5$ ass g fiscai rea it es an t a ca strai ts and u cartantiaa that t%a n$radsca 3n ferta struct$r3 -nl ia i Jun I 3 7 we also prabe autslde the farmal meetings Jaganesa attitudes-as ta whether EGJ maritime an air farces aperatlng In the seas west ef Guam and narth cf the Bashl channel in regianal pretectlon missions wculd ha canstitutinnally andfar palitlca ly manageable Prmmote a further axpa slen of $34 cast sharing measures and explara infermally varluas Foiicwi g contlusloa a the Srawn Kanemaru talks last year 503 adagte a new $323 millfan cogt gharing package far bri glng the total 953 axpeadltura for 65 Farces fer the year ta appraximataiy $753 Alth ugh cost sharlng has been lncrezslag of late the 664 feelg lt has very little additlenal maneuvering ream within the SGFA an future labar cast'sharlng arraagements it Is absalutely necessary hewever that vtger ayenues be seught And we will need ta parsuade the Japanese that we expect US palitlcal and econamic pressuras for cast sharlag will ingrease Same msasures Na can exglorg inclade saint use sf bath us and Ja anese basas with the $64 assuming a progressively larger $hara 9f maintenance and security Japanese construction a new jalnt operatlcnal facilitiasl Japanese fuadlng a depct lava maintenance affurts S efuse Japanese criticism cf unequal treatment compare to cur Allies we will tell the Japanase 0 our attempts ta eliminate equalities which exist n areas such as cnmmunlcatlons security limitations an and delays En equipmeni purchases tachnology trassfar etc At the samu- time we will polnt eat ta the Japanase same of the raciprocal ahligatloas embodied ln 10 arrangemants e g lung texma efensa pregram we want to canduct the SSC lnfarmaily Yhe arrangaments for the social avahts seatlng arraagements dress atlpulatlsn are dasigae to insure such infarmal ty we 9 21 have to deal with the prcpensity a the Japaaese grass to exaggerata what the 356 is asking of the $93 by limiting bath sldes public statements ta generalitlas and giving the maeting a 30% public refilal Schedule of Evanzs $555 55$ sgana thrae aya thre will g 3 g hast gar acquaintad faactian t a avenlng a July Ferma maraiag an afteraeen saggie s are scha nle July 3% 33d agagt 3 Tag will ag a aa eyenlag racegtiag an 32 aa we will heat a ealai fanatian Ea ayanl g a agast 9 The flag marging ugus 2 i all srw ataiy egaa 59 that l caa g t iza fiaxihllity far anathgr ferma sessiaa fallgwi g a wn aigke baslnasg far grivgte ge tinga galf ear3 arhsr tagrs rst will gat a la chaa n the Flag day whlah will Ea k a frag iSC ssi ta a law each eiegatiag ta ra $e any desired Esgaa s g Sancfasian 9f thig sgsgian In Eata afternaan a l9w5 avanlng mgarturas if dalegates esira TALKING EAEER yon FIRST - EELS - 35C July 31 - August 2 19 9 EGESECT Raviaw cf Majcr Glabal Issuea Intxa uction Since the last 8C8 there have been rather ramatie c anges in the security landscage-HSALT agraemant evelcpm manta in Africa th$ Middle East an Sauth Asia challenges ta the weaker positian in the Inaian Gcean Persian Gulf the SinowJayanase 9eace an Friendship Treaty and the narmalizaw tien of diplamatic relations furthe changes in aux Karaan palicy and the situatian in Indochina In discussing thasa aevelopmants wa will he particulatly intereste in exyloring thair impliaaticna far defensa canperationg p3 I an 8 3 Nackear Strategy Lat me start with SALT I14 I wun t repeat the atails af the agreement A shurt paper eutlining tha agreement has heen t0 yen Neither wiil I rahearse arguments and caunterarguments that have surfaca in Washingtan I would cnly like ta make a few key gointsr - First a few warda abaut ita political impiicatiohsw m Within the v 3 there has been grewing concern about the grawth of Saviet nuclear aha canvantinnal military gawer as waik as Soviet involvement in Africa and elsewhere This concern is raflacted most natahly in grawing publia and Coagressio al far real increaaes in aafgnse syen iug w Tha chiet hag been ambivalant aring nscaw'shawad samewhat greater in Africa bat they increased their aativities an their strategic pariphary ia garwayg in tha i a3e aat ana in arthaast Asiat paxha s in pazt gs ta a sali in uce faar af enairclemgnt L4 f @ha net resuit is that th da ata ever 55$ 11 a 5 as ma mare than a ebata an atratagic arma iimitation treaty Eakifieatian af tha traaty thus takaa an greater aignificanaa e baliave that tha I Agreamgat aarvas the int rests a5 giabal stability by imgagiag limits an the nambara 3f ca tral atxategia systamat ur- 431 u y i i - AtiaLg-r Il'l 4 n- 1- th r I The numericai limita in the treaty actually require that the Seviats dismantla ever 259 launchera by tha en af 1985 Thesa limits previ e greater gradiatability a3 ta the size of our future strategia challenge and enable us to etter glam ear awn strategic capabilitiea w SALT II eas nat preclude efforts ta ma arnize its own strategic forces e g prawiding tha with imprava amcuracy aevelcping a mobila ICEM continuing of the snag systam equiyying our awszs with air launche cruise missiles an avalcping SEEM ana taahnolcgy With regard to verificatinn the treaty does at require that we trust tha Seviat The lcaa sf ear sitaa in iran will tampcrarily limit cur informatian an mama asyects of Soviet In any case the treaty is verifiable Exam signing i e we c3316 aetect any violations that thraaten aur security Since strategic syatems taka years ta devalap we are cenfiaent that we tau aetect and respand as any Seviet cheating befqre it could affect tha strategia balance Lg -- Finally the treaty clearly takeg cur allias' intarests inta strategic equivalenaa is maintained U S Forwar Base System are not inclu ed mama optiona to medernize long range theater nu i hr forces with cruiaa missiies are fuily preservea axisting patterns at colla- baratian and cocperatian between the an its allias ara unaffected The nan cir umventi n pravisian is simply a raiteration of obligati ns un er internatianal law ana we su casafu11y resistad Soviet attemyts ta inglude a nam transfer ban in the traaty En adaition our pasitica is that any future limits an 3 3 systems yrimarily designed far theater missians shbuld be ac ampani by Eimits on Seviat thaater ayatems V what are the chances 5f ratificatiaa by the 6 5 Senate Cansansus buil ing takes tima Ra senatazs Kaga exyxaase qreaarvatimne ahaut traaty 'All ara examining traaty with care wha iaitiai raun sf haaringa hag given us a chance t6 ad rasa the genatsra aanearna wha treaty has wan sugpert distinguishe sutsi ata glist s mg axrimah Saylar Kidd angherty aa gram the 333 Ail af us hava the mega fax vigaraus 3 5 an ailia afanaa effartg with ragar t5 gaz ha hax thas rasarvaiiens sax ha aaswara azisg a whather aha will taka tha f rm 3f nan ihdia Senata r am am n maat ta the tr aty is at clear at this tima an var wa axyeat that he s nata will vata an tha ratificatian sf traaty lata thig yaat mgaxha s is aariy avembax i Baaia gui alinaa far sabsaqua t nagatiatisns an tha limitatin 9f strata in axms geataina in tha I Egreamgnt var gangrai gai i hz 83$ wa ara 3' 1 1- 1 mi h stu ying alternative ta SALT an participating in a syacial EATS planning gran that ig igcuasing how theatar nuclaar farces might be ad regae i3 SALT 3 Euraga an EATGV Sinca 1973 the Soviets have haen expanding and impgoving their cnvantianal an t eatar nuclear forcea in Euxape The farce exganaian pregrama shew signs of leveling off but the madarnization programs prebably will continua at a rapi paca auxinq the next faw years Specifically since January 1933 -- Soviet an 85% forces have bean increased by appreximately 52 999 man with maze than half the inarease acaurring in tha Gran 9f Saviet Barnes in Germany aha Palish graun farcas Thare has been anly a alight inaraas in tactical aircraft -- The East garagean states have heir military arganizations aha cagabilities and they new play a greater rule in Pact planning and strategy far In t0 this increased include the 8 s --has taken a number ef ateps ta share a the Alliance s efense poatuxe This spring at the DEC the membars of reaffipmed their goal 0f 3 3% real increase in annual dafanae expen itures and with minor xceptians it appears that this gaal wili be me Table 1 indicates acme measure 0f aefense burden A Long Term Befenae mare than 126 spacific meaguxaa ta imyrave HATO's conventianai farcesw was adagte at the wa hington Summit in May 0f laat year and we are making gragre$s in imglamenting it A brief summary ef tke ha been given ta yauz delegation w is alga taking stays ta imyrava both its haztlafigla ana Imager ranga theatax nuciaar wea an gyatama wani 11kg ta aw ha i2a three abaat gar affartg in agg mm yirgt carrent afi rtg are aegignaa ta scaraet tha consegaencas sf aggleat arising amt at aux invalveme t in Viatnam 3 73 Seaen impravemants in garage are act ceming at tha exgenae 0f aux farces in Agia Gar NRTQ afenaas acmplamant aux farces in Eaat Agia aa tha western Pacgfic aha vice verga We are continuing t0 hogs Gar ple ge to maintain aur carrent lava af farces in the Pacific-wana wa are making 80mg quantitative as well as qualitative impzave ments to an farges in the regian w $hir as you are wall awara we are facing an adversary is making axtraar inary efforts in develaping his military farcaa Bawever the strangth of the free warld lies in an alliance structure Although the Seviet union may be outspen ing the 8 5 the aefensa spanding of 8 5 and othar N330 naticns when combine 13 graata than the Soviet nian gins its Warsaw Pact allies Table 2 this fact grayhi ally Gar security degends on cur ability ta cagitalize an an cambinea stre gth Befare we turn cur attention_ta Aaia I vauld like to say a few warda abaut the Hiaale East 4 The mid ie East Parsian Gulf an Indian Ucean The 8 3 Ja an an the rest cf the in uatrialized nations s are a ma a EnEerast In t e Eastuwunimye e acceas ta ail hat is sue reasan we are ac annearned abaut xacent events in Iran Ethimpie Afghanistan an Yemen The major threata he unimgedea ageass to Mi le East ail center araun a renewal of the Axab-Israali conflict raaical and Soviet-sponaare a venturism and internal instabilitx w Gar raapanae must includa effective fellaw thraugh an the Camy navid accar a cauntgriag Soviet supparte adventurism as in Earth Xaman and daaling with those canditiona which generata internal instability The has maintaina a military presance in the in ia Gcean far thirty years in the feta 0f tha Emrca an rentin eyiaym nts sf additiana naval far aa we hava augmente this xesenca aring gaxia s g crisis mm agrantiy the Ka y z sanma in tha in ian chan inclu as the Fazaa thrae permanently apleya acmhatantg ius aha aglaymant thwaa timaa a yaax ai altarnating carxier battlg grnups an cambatant coupmson or 1973 aims muscles FY as BOLLARS 249 mama Am 3 224 JAPAN 11 28 aruea 92 PAST orasa we mm i 33 - 155 ussa 11 3 i taak graupa Right now chart is a surfaae task gram cf 3 aruisex three and an ailer in tha Indian Sagan at In ad iticn a oi slimy patrol aircrraft 1 - has been ataging cut cf Diego Garcia an a cantinucns basis since 19% and mare recently 3 8 1 35 have aparatea out at Singapara tip The Bayartmant of Befense has recantly racomande The MIDEAST Task Force be augmantaa an a permanent GP basis by two 33 threa sux ace camhatants drawn frag our farces in the Atlantic an Mediterxaaean arm i aaific be increaae Exam three to four pa year an if feaaihle inclu e a Marine Amyhibiou Task Farce I -- At me lan wbasea tactical aircraft be the dayloye to the ragitm parioaically and A Steps be taken to imyrove cur security relations with the regional atate3 and improve their self defense capaw bilities as well as car capability to our farcaa in the region -- Perim c task force degloyments from the Atlantic - - The President has not yet made a daciaion or this recamendation But same expandea deplayments are likaly ta rafi act cur awareneaa ef tha strategic significanca at Middle Eastern oil y w org-45 2 MW #1 me La 1 7 Sg sien I art 2 5 turret Asian 5 tuatlan Hr Amamst I The security situatim East Asia has been substantialty tranaferme 5% races manths the gasttive side af the e ger there have been these key dava l amts i 4r Amarican military pcwer in the Paaific has beau stabfiize '3 y f us'dapan defanse cacperation is greater than evar hefare Tim protiferattan ef Simwdaganese and Sim' s manic technciogfc and scianti c anchanges tendato confirm si ing s cgening ta tha Vast - Sam has centinued ts mtdistance Pyangyang in the paliticai- 3 ewmmic cmpe tim anti-m Korean Peninsula Sinw a at rivalry sham no sign at abating and ramp canvautionai military canf cts in East Asia have been lfmite ta the cammunfst caantries g Talwaa is a justing we to 5399 05 normal zatlaa - The Sewer Uninn has been unable to traasiate Its greasing m rtary power in the Pacific nta unitaterai potitica advantage 7 The states -- in ividna y and collactiv y -- have disglayed Imrassive resilience am cohesims a The 9acif c Basin emnam reanalns stra g pm ding the uader nnings For pu tkal stabi iity it the mammal market cauntr es 7116 Paci c island m nt statas haw mada are making tha transition ta Indemndaace withcut un ua strife or axmma mnipuia an AH in 332 these are hagaful tren s anti my jaint intarastg are sarvad by mrktag ta canse am ham 13 mgatiya shag than Edgar wars have 335 3 begs am devammats which mum mawrm Tim Swizz nim cmtiamag ta gxgaa its capacity tn pmjact my inks tag wastarn Paci c and iad aa 9mm exgamim swim Va astam fangs ayiamt tiw Mask and tha isms 36436 ta Waaiwgmk incrsasad farti aa ms In 221% q u- I a -#9nh u rmru v43 4 l l t Mug -1 Ir 3 nt I - Warthern Territo e s acquisitim of limited sanitary cperatfng rights in Vietaam provisioa of maasive military su992 as 9 Vietnam tharehy factiitatfng aggrasgicn in Cambo la 1 The erosion cf western influence in the Parslan Gulf and indian caan littorai cembined with the establishmant cf a stranger Savie military faothoid in sautheast Asia raises new questions abcut the saeurity of thesz saurcas of $11 which are so critica to security of_3apaa and the United States and ta a esser extant stunt the security cf ha th msekvas In addition wa have seen tha pra am that even a smai loss af ail aroductian can cause tha warid economy The presence 3f seven Vietnamese t isicns an the Thai harder creates an a v ous potential far incidents and pasas risks that the confiict may spill over Intc The canflicts in In cchina have farted not enly'Thai and but Maiaysia la onesia and Singapor tn reconsi er a equacg 6 their defenses The massive exodus of refugees from Indochina has became an enormous humanitarian problem in South ast Asia and Its has game security overtones since tha iarga Influx of Chinese cauld disrupt the internai balance in Malaysia an 'indona la and cau d iadace policies between the ASEAN members Sine-Vietnamese caafiict cauid recur In Karea new $ntel igence nformation reveals that we previuusly undarestimated crth Karea's military strength mare urgent effarts are required to overcama uflctenciaa 33 K9K defenses garticuiariy its ground defenses HE have begun to chart responses to thasa deveEOpmants bit much remains ta be dona i tuu r th r spant a the ex a in Sev et militar access ta we shsu d wcrE to see that ascaw pays a 53gb gei tlca and giamat prica throughaat the ra an a9 a 9f it atten t9 ailitary fagi it1as a tha 58 its and rur tin af invasiaa in tambo la ecant ayaiagmaats in 95mg 6 tha iadian caan ttaral gtates raqu re that tha Baitad Statea exganz 3a aymeats 13 9 that area 1%gye may he gama diverging 6f assats garraatiy assigae is tha a if s inscfar as $3 aaseta avg atretsha thinner we naad ta cansi ar hay wa caa nam awant ath uther s effarts mnra affaatiya y n pratectiag the gurva l an 83 gatraliing in s abi ity in majnr sappl er soantrias We have attemptad to minimize tha angers tn T a 1and pose by invasinn cf Cambu ia by 3 reaffirm ng our cammitment 9 Thai secar ty 2 warning the Vietnamase and Sovtets of tha consequentas a allcuing tha canfitct to sprea Iain Yhaiia d and 3 expandiag our security ass staa a to the 3T3 including the acceteration of equtymant daiiveries Seyend this the afflcacy of our effarts to ancnuraga a pcl tica rescintiea of tha Xampuchsanyprablem wiil tura upon the balance cf forcaa wh5ch daveEaps in Kampuchea aver tha coming months we are seeking ta forestall racagnitfon of eng Samrl pupgat reg maz and keeping the idea a an internatinna seafarenca 0a Kampuchea aiive Hate halpfui 58$ role an refugees and ecanumtc Th3 other cauntries requira our supp rt to acreasa tha readiness a the r defe aes withcut Jeapar iztng develapmeat grammars Tim nited Stating 3% attemgting to agf a preserva and ta tha extent exyaad w aradlt Seveis axpeditiou ly process requests far defe sive equip ment and handie arms transfer requests with greater sensl tiv ty to requirements Difficaities in th 5hert term inciuda 3 an aastere budg t 2 a depiction of efensa stocks and 3 legal inhibitlans against airlifting Li dggu pment Expiore whether Jagan might be this ta and a dl' ana hetp thraugh the provision cf fungib e ecanamlc assistance someth ng analogous ta our SSA respact ta China it is 9 naither af our intere ts unwitting ta promnte China s effarts to Farge an common frant The apprapriats stance for us Is 3 deepened US-an defense cooperatian and 2 promoting in parallel of cur resyecziva bilateral pnittica aa etanomlc relationships with Baijlng 3a Karaa rece t3y anneaaced adjustments 0f 85 troop withdrawals mil nister deterrenca and the aux baa agrea substantiaily ta augmaat its awn defense effart Elven tha h gh rate inflatian In ha 33x thase stays may exacerbat damast c ecanomtc prah em5 it weuid he helpfai If tha ccai leak at ways n which it might centr buta 9 39% aacarity by eag ng thgse accaamiz fftcu3ties 3ftera izing tra a acce5 exgaad ng cradit attg an refa egs acanawiadga Japan g in t ativ amat ca iy ta exga i its gnyport f0 tha uaata an ta a nata a ha fact that ma arg imgiamgnting atags whiah invaiya a ui er ac tributian a tha refug 16% $388163 3 US Farce Pasture in Asia Indian Gcean in 198 's Lawsan Gut abjective during this a asion is ta desariba reali ticaily mar force gesture in the Pacific and In ian cean areas an expiain ta the Japanese our appreciatien 0f the sharad necegsity in maintaining free tra e accass ta the natinns baz ering these acean areas alking Paints Introducticn Eariiar in cur discussions we indicatad that Overall we believe that the Aaian saaurity situatien is reiatively atable The v 3 is committe ta remaining militarily pnwer ul in East 3313 tha Parsian Gulf and the Indian Began 33 wall as to maintaining an strategic nuclear equivalence vis a vis the Saviets Hewav r we View with coneern the Snviets increaaing canventional military particularly naval buildup and will act jointly with our allieg and frian s to meet this challenge gut before we facus an united States farce posture in Asia and Indian Ocaan in 1986 s I will briefly discuss recent Seviet military activities in Agia and davelcgments in the Indian Gcean and Middle East The recent apening of Vietnamese parts and airfialda ta eviat farces coui have far raaching aonsaguances in the westarn a i ic ahsuld the Viatnamese give political appraval t6 continuation sf such activitias or examplez suah bases caul grovi e canvenient staging yoints for cvie brags aa impreve Savietwcapa%ilitias ta sustain their farceg in bath the scath Chiaa Sag ha Ia ian asa n vietaamasa hasiag caul alga tha Soviata with facilities far crew shara leave rapiaaishwent an repair far bath fazcas n transit aa ahase aparating in thesa araasg a Sm 3H 25 EQSE 4% aw Seviet reaation times anuld be imprave Far example Vladivastok is about 1 966nm rem Subic gay an abaut 2 99nm from Eingapcre Can Bank ay is only 656nm fram Subic an Ganm from Singapare Seviet forces operating tram Vietnam c9316 alsu canduct survaillance cf the vital sea line at cammunications in the ragian aa well as ma itar v 5 wavy activities in the area For examgle Seviet Ta 95 reconnaissance aircraft ana ILst ASH aircraft aparating ram Vietnam cauld cover the Lamhok San a an Malacca Straits They coula alsc manitor an a continuous hasia 3 5 carrier aha other naval cperatiana in the Subic Bay aperating area In support 9f the Vietnamese Saviat aaval aircraft cauld prgvide a quick reaction maritime pattal and surveiliance capability in the Scuth China sea as wall as search for Chinase ships supporting Kampuchean tarces The saviets may alga use Vietnamese aval sages an airfields as staging bases for exercises in tha South China and Phil ippine Seas In particular coardinate ASW training would be enhanced by the shark transit time and istanca for their ASW aircraft w The principal threats to allie shigping in the Pacific are the Saviet general purpose submarine farce and elements of the Seviet Haval Aviatinn fetcea bombers with airwto-surfaee m15$i1es in the past saa lanes in tha Paci i were safe ua t9 geagraghi and mperating aenstraiats on saviet fcfces aw Asw barriars in the exits in tha 82a 9 Jaga and aff Petrcyavlovsk infiict lasaag aa saviat submazin s degiaying an ra urning ta thair hagea in $e iet Aaia The range cf the Seviet Tu zs equippe with surfa e newair missiles is approximataly 1 45 nm without aerial rafueiing an 2 G5 am with ona refueling aperating fram bases in Saviet Asia these aircraft cauld aperate only 35 Ear Scuth as the nerthern Philipyines The a ition af the BACKFIRE bomber to quiet Naval Aviatian forces is Asia an exten ed Seviet nag 9f air an naval in Viatnam weuld seriausiy impact an cur efensa planning The has an unrafuled combat raaius of 2 603nm almost twice that 0f the it replaces If uge in an anti-shipping rula and base in saviet Asia its unrefueled aperating area vauld include tha Philipping and South China Seas and this could be exten e evan furthar by u ing inmfight refueling mu and TBwl s aperating extensively from Vietnam wauld prsvi e the Soviets with SLDC surveillance thraughaut the Snuthern Pacific and tha eaatern partians of the In ian chan They could also be provi ed fighter escorts if necessary astablkahment cf submarine operating in Vietnam would shorten transit time for Soviet submarines make our ASK barriers at the exits ta the 0f Jagan and in the vicinity 9f 9etro avlav5k less effactive and initially would cemplicate our ASE efforts in the Western Pacific In shart Seviet bases in Viatnam wgul aignificantly enhance Soviet capabilities to interdist allie 35a linas at cemmunicatiaas in Asia during the early stages cf a ma or canfiict i vaul new like ta turn is tha E iaa Sagan an di36u$$ regent avents in t at reginn Sm- The 5 5 has mai taine a military presence in the Middle East far thirty years in the form ef the MIEEAST Farce whiah baa hiatoricazly been cemyrise of a camman ship and two dastroyer type ahips we have augmented thi force aring pariads cf crisis nch as the Indo Pakistani war in 1971 tha 19 3 Arab-Israeli War and mast recently as a result of tha fighting in Yemen Wk have also deglayed on a yearly ba$is both carrier battle grnups and surface cambatant task groups from Seventh Fieat assets in the Western Pacific Hormally tha carrier battle graup makes one deplayment to the Indian Gcean far about as 63 days The ether two deploymentg cf like duration by our $urface combatants are typically ma a up cf 3 gui ad miaaile erusier three escorts ana a mobile logistics ship In additicn a atachment of wavy patrol aircraft pm3s has been aparatinq from Diego Garcia an a aentinuous basis sinca and mare recentiy v 5 have used Singapore facilities for transit purposea As a result of recent event$ in the Mid le East the 3 3 is censidering savers praposals concerming ita military presence in the ragion These include incraasing the number and type af force permanently stationed in the area increasing the frequency cf nut naval eployments and perhaps daploying land based aircraft to the region an a randam basis mm @he rationale behind prepasals to incraasa 3 5 presenca in tha Inaian Ocean is that positive step are needea in tha aftermath 9f event in Iran Afghanistan Ethiopia and new Yemen ta reasgura 3 3 allies fael threatened by Soviet activities an ta emenstzate 3 8 reselve ta protect its interasts in tha r gi n bx fgn th$ face a the gaviet develapments I have just deacribed the 63 has not stsa stiil we hava maintaina an military strangth in Asia In fact we have nut farceg samawhat whila cantinaiag ta imprave tham qualitativaly whe cat oak far the is as fallawa Th3 Seventh Fleet represants tha fcrward deglaye Despite uncertainties about funding levela and navai cempcnant cf forces Centere araun twa carrier battle groups and tag amphibiou$ ready groupa its principal missinna include peacetime presence in the Western Paeific an Indian Oceans contingancy rasgange SLGC protaction and offeasive operations in wartime Qfgi pracurement program tatal Ravy farce lave sheuzd slewly increase thraugh the the increase will be cancentrate in major surface cambatants and attack submarines whila offsatting re uctions will came from tha tanks at auxiliaries ana reserve ahipg Farticuxarly significant I think ia the increase use that we will be making of civilian manne M80 fleet support shipa In general we expect that the Pacific Fleet s share of tatal avy aasats wili remain clcse tn the present ratio Mereover our forces are inherently flexible and can maet worldwide requirements During Vietnam we augmente tha Pacific fleet with ships the Atlantic More recently we draw an ships from bath tha mediterranean an Pacific ta enhance our presence tempararily in the Indian ecean We will continue ta respond to these threats which directly affect an interests in class consaltaticn 1th our allies In ad ition tn the carrier air wingg afloat 1 r h' gr - significant numbers of Navy and Marine Cerps aircraft are lacated at bases ashore Asw patrol aircraft Pw3s regularly operate from saverai fiel s ranging Exam Adah Alaska ta Diego Garcia Suppart aha specia miasian are similarly eplayad Marina Carps attack at fight rwattaek' squa tans are Eccated in Jagan and Hawaii and a etaehmant 9f Avwa HARRIERs is Qii awa By the ana cf the paria 313 aarrier air wing Fw s with the axagptian af thsaa n i yay an Egral 8 a will have been raglaca with Ff i$s will be ta Sarina aryg fightar sqaa raas Carriars vi h gin rsaeiving Lan mbasa $53 eaga ilitias will a iapraved with tha w3 p aia yragram Sarfa e ship Ag will ha markadiy anhanca by t a iatra ctian af a neg tcwe array and the g3 EX heliaspter if War aw -- 35' 5 L g Air Farce contrals ten taatical fighter squadrans tetalling 192 F 4s Tug squadrona are in the hilippines fear are on Gkinawa and fear are la Karea Thsse at 03am Kunsan an Taegu are specifically tasked far Korea the rest are available far general Asian contingencies Twa tactical airlift squa rons in Japan and the Philippines plu$ Some recannaissance and special cyerations units round cut the inventory will bagin cperating item Kadena next year All squadrans in Japan will transition to the lesl the first AWACS will be rotation ta Kadena and Fw HILD aircra t will deploy to Clark We plan that 9-163 will replace F- s in Korea and a total of five AWACS will be available in WEST9AC n majcr Ground ercea The 28 060 trcopg of the Eighth 3 8 Army are part cf the Ccmbined Farcea Comman s strategic reserve By July 1979 3 798 men had bee with rawn By Eresi ential decisian Withdrawals af combat elements cf the 26 Divi$icn will remain in abeyance The structure and function of the Combined Forces Camaand will continue ag established last year Between new an the end a 198$ same reduntians cf persennal in 8 3 support units will continue Thi$ will inclu e ene air defense battalicn whose transfer to the RGK had been planna simce 1976 The timing ana page of with rawalg beyon these will be rawexamine in 1981 a that review the Unitad States will pay speaial attention is the restatatian a a aatisfactary military bala ae an eviaancs cf tangiblg gragzass toward a re uctinn 3f anaiens an the ygninsalal as ahanges in gating Carpa ae laymant$ ara pragrammg 5 r - - We aisa have afloat a Rating Amphibians Unit mag ana a Battaziea Landing Teaa Thea units are deplayea in tha Western Paaific abcard tan Amghihisua Ready Greup$ ABS Totaling abcut 3 l80 men they pravide rapia reaction farces far limited cantingencias in the regia Nb fore level changes are pregrammed but amphibians shigping with Marinea embarke may be aeplaye mere aften into the In ian Scean @he 25th Infantry Eivisian in Kawaii with its reserva rcun out brigada constitutas strategic reaerve The remaining brigade of the 3d arine ivisien 3159 is on ahu Althcugh nu decisiona have been made the future configuratian aha orientaticn cf the 25th Division is un er review In the Eaatarn Pacific we have I consisting cf the lat Marine Division and the 3d MAW lccated at Camp Pendleton u change 13 ccntemylatad for the employment cf I MAE Farces A aquadron of variaus tanker and recennaissance units and 10 POLARIS-equipped are base in Guam Additional reconnaissance and suppart ferces ara Iacate threaghout PACOM The first submarina is expacted ta eploy to the Pacific in FY 1981 Ll fgshility Forces - Tha Military Airiift Command operates 76 an 234 vl l trangports Aithcugh largely based in the Cantinental 53 thasa aircraft cantribute to our cagabilitiea in all theater Their ragga and payload are easentiai ta cu ta delivar rainfatcegents aring Scream aa Parsian Gul aantingencias in tha last raw yeargg m mair rafuaiing teqhniqnas have gurt ar enhanaa tha resyangiyenass $5 an strategic airliit Th 1 13 streta Fragraa will aa 33 gargant t9 aha 933ia$ 3% gash aircraft alang with imyzava fag ecgaamy an aegiai giggling pre ea 33 33 mg ifiaatiea$ ta the wings wil exten t g service life af t es an qua transparts through ea a tha eentury 675 mi a Cc tingency Farce centingancy-forca is being deveicpe canaigting of land naval and air r es gagabla af resgonding ta a wide range sf cantingencies with amghasis an the M16513 East tha Feraian 3 1f and Karea The cantingenay farce will have strategic mobility aha will be largely of avarseas baaes an The exact siza and compc ition at forces fer any particular centingency will necesaarily depend tha nature an locatien at the cantingency It is envisaged that the forms will generally be selfwsugtaining an capable of aperating in an augtere enviranment for at least 68 daya L fx nd Gcean - Thus far the majarity at Inaian Gcean have came fram PACOM but EUCGM cantributiona would increase in the future It is anticigate that a policy deciaian will he made shortly ta mode$tly increase MIDEASTFOK an a permanent basis and increase periadic naval deployments drawing PACOM and EUCGM v 8 capabilities throughuut the In ian Ocean area suffer from a lack cf suppezting infrastructure Programmed improvem$nts to facilities on Diego Garcia should be completad by the end of 3 198a but the island will remain a very aastere base Aircraft yanking space weald be a particular prnbigm aring periads of haavy Baa L7 fgummar As you 5 3 oar forges will be maintaine assent ally at present levels with significant ad ed qualitative imprevements awevar avy'a averall fares 332% remains a longwterm concern he 33 yarticularly as we encaunter ad itianal requirementa in the Indian 6 ea Eventuai out 0me will epend net cnly on multimyear un ing lavalg but aisa an aw ming ecisiens palitical aammitments ailia centri%atians an the natura cf the thraat anetkalass the magability and prgbably the 532% af the fiaat will graa at laa t thraugh aha an there still is tima ts make acisians fa tha Ragga terg an a ali arate basis This evarview has faxuga magtly an ingiame faraag awavkr the nambinatian s Egalift mi wair efueziag 3t atagi an zhe aivil rasarva air izeet saag 3150 allawa as in rainfarea anyw are in the wari ggacific aegiayment rates arg very sensitive ta assumgtie s abaut tha sceaaria gar axample simultaneoaa exiges in Eataye aad t e Ra weai agxaad aur ma ility erce very thin llie air an saalift 33916 beccma vezy important gvarthaiess aux awa sapabilities are anbstantial 2 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu