GPS Critical Infrastructure Usage Loss Impacts Backups Mitigation Other CIKR Sectors IT Comms Electric Power GPS Timing R James Caverly April 27 2011 Critical Infrastructure GPS Depen ATM Networks Stock Exchanges Substations Energy Plants Internet Banking Power Grids Banks Nodes GPS Supporting Power Grid Systems GPS Supporting Banking Operations GPS Switching Towers Signals Rail Yards Wireless Internet C2 Centers Air Traffic Control Ship Routing GPS Supporting Transportation Systems Access GIS Map Comms Networks Relay Position To 911 Dispatch GPS Supporting Communications Systems 2 GPS Critical Infrastructure Timing Study Usage Loss Impacts Backups Mitigat Summary of CI GPS Timing Usag • • • • Of the 18 CIKR sectors 15 use GPS timing Major uses of GPS timing are for – Network and phase synchronization in wireline and wireless networks Communications IT Sectors used in multiple critical infrastructures – Precise frequency generation and stabilization for single frequency wireless networks LMR simulcast – Phase synchronization in Electric Power Nuclear Power and Dams Hydroele power sectors subsectors – Process scheduling control and synchronization in Oil and Natural Gas Chemical Critical Manufacturing DIB sectors – Precise time stamping of data transactions high-frequency trading in Banki Finance Postal and Shipping sectors In general GPS timing used in distributed interconnected systems that require synchronization for monitoring control production transaction tracking and ot functions Of the 15 GPS timing using CIKR sectors GPS timing is deemed Essential in 11 – Essential in more than half of the Nation's CIKR Sectors – Dependence is growing over time 3 GPS Critical Infrastructure Timing Study Usage Loss Impacts Backups Mitigat GPS Time and Frequency System Holdover Oscillator Frequency Frequency Delta Comparator  Filtering Algorithms Disciplining Algorithms Tuning Signal Rb Oscillator Frequency Rb Holdover Frequency Oscillator Time of Day TOD 1 PPS Multiplication Division Processing Filtering Protocol Formatting Input Output Circuitry Learning Algorithms GPS Receiver Master T F Reference Frequency 1 5 10 MHz TOD 1 PPS Sync It is the TFS not the GPS Receiver alone that should be considered as the building block for timing frequency and time-of-day services 4 GPS Critical Infrastructure Timing Study Usage Loss Impacts Backups Mitigat CIKR Sector Oscillators And Holdov GPS Timing Essential CIKR Sector Timing Oscillators Used Least Robust Oscillator Osc Accuracy Holdover Requirements Time Hours TCXO Communications Sector Emergency Services Sector Information Technology Sector Banking and Finance Sector Energy Electric Power Subsector Energy Oil and Natural Gas Sector Subsector Nuclear Sector Nanoseconds SONET CDMA Nanoseconds CDMA E911 LMRs 20 to 100 Nanoseconds PTP Millisecond- Microsecond HFT 1-4 6 Microsecond Synchro- X OCXO Rb X X OCXO HS 24 X OCXO HS 24 X OCXO MS 1 TCXO 24 -1 7 OCXO MS 1 OCXO MS 1 X X X Phasors Fault Loc Microsecond X exploration SCADA 1 Microsecond Synchro- X OCXO MS 1 1 Microsecond Synchro- X OCXO MS 1 Phasors Sub Microsecond- X OCXO MS 1 X Phasors Dams Sector Chemical Sector Critical Manufacturing Sector Defense Industrial Base Sector Transportation Sector Microsecond Millisecond X X TCXO 1 7 Millisecond X X TCXO 1 7 OCXO HS 24 Nanoseconds Wireless modal comms X X 5 GPS Critical Infrastructure Timing Study Usage Loss Impacts Backups Mitigat CIKR Impacts Under GPS Outage S GPS Timing Essential CIKR Sector Least Robust Holdover Unintentional Intentional Oscillator Time Interference Jamming Space Weather hours impact impact impact 8 hours Multiple Days 16 hours Y or N Y or N Y or N Communications Sector Emergency Services Sector OCXO HS OCXO HS 24 24 N N Y Y N N Information Technology Sector OCXO MS 1# Y Y Y Y Y Y Banking and Finance Sector TCXO 24 -1 7 # Energy Electric Power Subsector OCXO MS 1# Y Y Y Energy Oil and Natural Gas Sector Subsector OCXO MS 1# Y Y Y Nuclear Sector Dams Sector Chemical Sector Critical Manufacturing Sector OCXO MS OCXO MS OCXO MS TCXO 1# 1# 1# 1 7 # Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 1 7 Y Y Y N Y N Defense Industrial Base Sector Transportation Sector TCXO OCXO HS # 24 6 GPS Critical Infrastructure Timing Study Usage Loss Impacts Backups Mitigat Result Limited to Moderate Regional Impacts GPS Timing Impact Assessment Approach Result Moderate to Severe National Impacts Result Severe Regional National Impacts Operational Impact Level No impact Definition Score 100 Full operational capability No - Lim Limited 90 Infrastructure Infrastructure is mildly impacted Efficiency of some operations is reduced workarounds are available and the consequences are not important Any degradations or impacts in service costs and risks that occur are localized less than a metropolitan area and do not extend to the regional level metropolitan area or greater Minor localized public safety impacts Lim - Mod Moderate 65 Infrastructure Timing from GPS is not adequate to meet infrastructure needs over a significant region and time Important portions of the infrastructure experience significantly degraded or complete loss of functionality as a result Resulting degradations in the quality of infrastructure services and or service impacts costs and risks that occur are significant to the region metropolitan area or greater Public safety impacts at the regional level Mod - Severe Severe 80 50 40 Infrastructure Timing from GPS is not adequate to meet infrastructure requirements over a substantial region and time period Important portions of the infrastructure are severely degraded and there may be cascading effects within the infrastructure possibly cascading to other infrastructure sectors as well Resulting impacts costs losses risks that occur are significant to the nation Public safety impacts over multiple regions and extended time periods 7 25 GPS Critical Infrastructure Timing Study Usage Loss Impacts Backups Mitigat Space Weather Plannin Scena o J I intense Radiatien Etnrm 35 Alert issued I - a Fatwa I'l'uls lar' flare amp - 5r rm 5 1 Haryiarga m lplu Sur pul alum-gag Radiu- E-Iaclmut Alert Issued Suler acliu' jr Fm-eeast High 51 Radiatien Eturm Warning issued Elm-em Gamm begin Pr'nbabilitf ufglu events 65 Gamay-misc Etnrm Watch la ued '65 Warnhn Ind Ali-1t lunar unset expected in 24 heure levels expects or 24 hrs Many R1413 events flares ueeur thrnu gh 24 Feb lee Feb I21 Feb lee Feb I23 Feb I24 Feb I25 Feb 26Fah I27 Feb -Hu preacl newer Inning In H Marlee and ELI-ope cum munieatlun eulages a Eaten-m JGPE am and was uf Inc l anf damaged 'md mad cm muriga m all- am Radar system Impede-El mmu '10 IGPE gamma irn pacts are shm't-Ilved minutes to air we day-5 hem-s -I umm uniea ene save r ljr degraded Impact on GPS and CI Feb 20 – 24 R4 Solar Event Scenario • An R4 event is caused by a disturbances of the iono caused by X-ray emissions from the Sun – A “Severe” R4 High Frequency HF radio frequency ev radio communications blackout on most of the sunlit side Earth for one to two hours HF radio contact lost during t time • GPS Impacts Loss of signal due to – Ionospheric plasma density irregularities • • – Locations • • • – Refraction and diffraction of GPS signal propagating through the irregularity Rapid amplitude and phase variations Night-time equatorial regions severe common Polar regions usually mild rare All latitudes during geomagnetic storms severe rare Time Duration of Event 10s of minutes to multiple hours over multiple days • Radar degradation due to similar causes as HF radio GPS signal impacts described above 9 Impacts on GPS and CI from 25-26 FEB G Geomagnetic Storm Scenario • • • Electric Power outages due to – Geomagnetic Storm induces ground currents and Earth surfa potentials – Geomagnetically Induced Currents GIC at substations dam equipment and on power lines causes faults lines to trip ou service – Loss of control caused by corrupted grid state estimation sit awareness due to loss of GPS timing synchronization of data SCADA and Synchrophasors Communications degradations consist of – HF Blackouts – Satellite communications losses – CDMA Cellular and Land Mobile Radio Simulcast loss due to l timing synchronization GPS Impacts Solar Storm Effect TEC increase in ionosphere -scintillation 10 -solar radio bursts Single Frequency GPS Timing Error Range Less than 100 ns Single Frequency GPS Position Error Range Less than 100 m Typical 10-30 ns Less than 100 ns for individual satellites Typical 10-20 m Loss of precision due to loss or corruption of individual GPS satellites Severe events can deny GPS reception Severe events can deny GPS reception Time of Day Duration of Event Day side of the earth Hours to days Worse in early evening Individual events minutes but can persist for hours to days diurnal Day side of the earth Minutes to hours duration of the solar burst Geomagnetic Storm Caused Regional Power Outages Kappenman J 2010 “Electric Power Grid Vulnerability to Geomagnetic Storms ” Source 11