DECLASSIFIED AuthorityA W we IJEPARTLEENT or STATE THE UNDER SECRETARY and DeveElopmenx Admini rm R _iL-v _c Em 7 The following comments on the attached memorandum will be useful in understanding its purpose and significance 1 These semi-annual estimates were requested by the Chairman of the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy and are of necessity somewhat They are also used by our military planners which place a premium on being safe and therefbre assume that the Soviets will solve the many problems remaining in a reasonably expeditious manner - 2 The possible bomb yield from the amount of uranium available I 7 is within the meaning of the Mchahon Act Therefore it is requested that the estimate and this explanatory memorandum be returned directly to this office when you have finished with it 3 Collaboration with the U K in this area of intelligence is maintained by the CIA For the reason mentioned in para 2 only the current rate of USSR uranium mining and accumulation of ores to date have been arrived at in collaboration with U K intelligence 4 This estimate is the first one to be made by the Joint Nuclear Energy Intelligence Committee composed of State Joseph Chase of my office Army Navy Air AEC and CIA members in which positive reliable intelligence substantiates what were previously educated guesses on Soviet progress This intelligence is a Definite proof that the Soviets have embarked on a large program to produce heavy water If they intend to use only heavy water piles for plutonium production they cannot produce enough fuel for a bomb before mid-1951 the absolutely limiting factor being the stockpile of heavy water b There are not even low grade rumors of Soviet manna feature within or acquisition outside the USSR of pile grade graphite A uranium-graphite pile cannot however be dismissed c The earliest peasible date for the first bomb mid-1950 takes into account evidence indicating that a chemical extraction plant which has the earmarks of a plutonium extraction plant has been completed in the USSR Our evidence may not be correctly DECLASSIFIED AuthoriWA M 3_ interpreted or it may mean that the Soviets as we did during the war have built a flexible extraction plant before they had anything to extract d The estimated accumulated stocks of 03 to date is 1325-2150 tone the lower figure being the most probable the higher the maximum By 1957 reserves of currently-worked mines should be exhauSted giving the USSR a total of about 2500 tons of uranium metal The estimated annual Soviet produotion of U303 in tone as of 1 July 1949 is between 570a850 with 470-700 coming from outside the USSR-uSaxeuy 250-400 Czechoslovakia 200-250 and small quantities from Poland and Bulgaria The USSR is hurriedly cleaning out the Saxony deposits and should exhaust them in about one year The Czechoslovak mines should be exhausted between 1955-57 at current rates of mining e The 1957 bomb stockpile is based on the total of 2500 tons of metal available by that time and on the assumption that the USSR will extract twice the amount of plutonium that we have been extracting to date we are new embarking on the higher rate by keeping the slugs longer in the pile after a recalculation of the risks involved-in such a procedure The relatively short supply of uranium available to the USSR should make the Soviets more willing than we have been to take the extra risk If they do not choose to do so their maximum stockpile should be reduced by as much as one half R Gordon Arnesoa Attachment Memorandum from Admiral Hillenkoetter re Status of USSR Atomic Energy Project 1 July 1949 DECLASSIFIED Authority Mm CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY ew WASHINGTON 25 o c EEMORANDUM TO VSecretary of State Secretary of Befense Director of Intelligence General Staff U 5 Army Chief of Naval Intelligence Director of Intelligence foice of Deputy Chief of Staff Sperations U 3 Air Force Chairmen Atomic Energy Commission SUBJECT Statue of the U S S EL Atomic Energy Project Attached is a cepy of the semi-annual report on the above subject that has been prepared by the Joint Nuclear Energy Intelligence Committee which is composed of representatives of the Departments of State Army Navy and Air Force the Atomic Energy Commission and the Central Intelligence Agency R H HILLERKOETTER Rear Admiral USN Director of Central Intelligence Encl As stated dated 1 July 1949 Ius 119 DECLASSIFIED i 1 J '7 I Zy-rf AuthorltYA M 5 1 I 3 2 le - M- w 5 it 1 W WZW C ma g w Ci i hg g - 0 I CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE- AGENCY NUCLEAR ENERGY BRANCH STATUS OF THE U S S R AEUMIC ENEFGY PHDJECT 1 July 1949 WARNING Thie document may not be reproduced Without prior approval cf the Director of Central Intelligence JUL 11949 This report has been prepared by the Joint Nuclear Energy Intelligence Ccmmittee which is composed of members of the Departments of State Army Navy and Air Force the Atomic Energy Commission and the Central Intelligence Agency rpm-n mwm TUE Dub J This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu