No Objection To Declas si cat on in Part 2013 11 18 if MEMORANDUM gbj THE WHITE HOUSE June 6 1980 SECRET MEMORANDUM TO STAN TURNER sacs FRANK PRESS SUBJECT 'Possible South Atlantic Nuclear Explosion Attached is the final report of the panel I convened at NSC request to evaluate whether the light flash recorded by one of our VELA satellites last September 22 was caused by a nuclear explosion U Based on exhaustive review of all available information the panel has concluded that the September 22 signal was probably not from a nuclear explosion This judgment is based on the lack of persuasive corroborative evidence the existence of previous nonnuclear VELA signals which had some of the characteristics of signals from nuclear eXplosions and discrepancies in the September 22 signal that had not been observed in previous VELA signals from nuclear explosions The panel noted that it cannot rule out the possibility that a nuclear explosion occurred but considered it more likely that the signal was caused by a natural event possibly light reflected from debris ejected during the impact of a small metercid on the satellite S The panel's conclusion is likely to be the subject of contin- uing controversy since key officials in BIA and the weapons laboratories including some members of your NIP panel 'remain convinced that the signal was caused by a nuclear explosion This is due primarily to the fact that the signal so closely resembles those from previous nuclear explosions but the weapons laboratories have been unable to come up with a physical explanation that could explain the discrepancies observed in the signal Others rely more on the few pieces of geophysical data from September 22 that might have been related to a nuclear explosion However all such data have been thoroughly analysed and none can be clearly correlated with the VELA signal S Review June 6 1986 N0 Objection To Declassi cat on in Part 2013 11 18 No Objection To Deolassi cat on in Part 2013 11 18 SECRET I 2 Work is continuing on all aspects of this problem but I doubt that we will be able to reach a more definitive judg- ment It is important to note that if the VELA system failed it failed safe--it gave us a false alarm rather than a missed nuclear event I'E lland other agencies involved in technical intelligence collection should he encouraged to continue to set their detection thresholds sufficiently low so that we continue to get occasional false alarms rather than miss real events C The September 22 event also illustrates the need for improve ments to our nuclear test monitoring capability in the Southern Hemisphere During the search for evidence relating to this event a large number of unclassified sources of good quality_geophysical data in this and other countries has been accessed by NRL and others One aspect of our effort to upgrade our monitoring capability should be to regularize our access to this data and assess its contribution to lowering our detection thresholds Also as you are probably aware the Air Force's FY 1982 POM does not include even at the enhanced level funds for deployment of the 12 Global Positioning Satellites that were to serve as the Vehicle for the IONDs system Consequently you may well want to task the interagency Nuclear Test Monitoring Working Group you established under NSC auspices to develop recommended upgrades to our nuclear test monitoring capability taking into account the lessons learned from the September 22 event and the apparent cancellation of the system S cc Zbigniew Brzezinski V ff N0 Objection To Deolassi cat on in Part 2013 11 18 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu