a J Ii iEJRE'f NQ FOREISN 'm l GQtlTIU zGT EMBA SSY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Buenos Aires December 6 1978 OFFICIAL - INFORMAL FOIA b 3 - I I so use 3 0 24 i 1 - I n tel ligence Sources and Methods Central Intelligence Agency Langley Virginia Dear Jeff This was drafted and got buried by current events As I still see t ese themes in the Agency's reporting I will send it on I am writing to share my own reactions to your office's recent overview on Argentina which ppeared in the Latin American Brief AP LAB Eonxi on August 2 2 Many of the cone 1 us ions of the article are excellent and on target However there are others which appear to me out of focus f What concerns me is that the article is reflective of the intelligence connnunity's current assessment of Argentina I wish to place a few of my personal thoughts into the mill for your consideration and that of your colleagues I would app eciate any feedback on these points Videla as a Good Guy For the past two years President Videla has sought to comply with US requests to improve human rights in Argentina and to accept international restrictions on nuclear development without providing his domestic opponents with an opportunity to exploit deeper rooted popular feelings of nationalism Para 1 Videla moreover is eersonallh comfortable with the general thrust of Washington's uman rights policy He has attempted to reduce repression by Argentina's security services and seems sincerely interested in gradually preparing the way for return to civilian rule Para 10 S E e It 'i' NQ FOREISU NO 80N'i'R e'f GDS 12 6 84 W H _Hal1mao QR P NW 5 40 89 Do-ci d 324 53443 P age 1 o t N6 F611 GBPIBN 'N6 e6N'f 6'f 2 The characterization of Videla as a goo -- uy'' in comparison with the hardline nationalists in the military is a connnon theme in any dfs ucsslons of current Argentine affairs However it is important to hold this theme under tight rein There is no information in the record which shows that Videla is personally comfortable with our human rights policy nor information that he has done anything more than try to find the minimal human rights concessions to buy off US concern Videla ' s peace by Christmas promise made in the U S late last year resulted in the naming of the executive detainees and the removal from PEN status of 350 prisoners Videla himself has not to our knowledge taken a personal initiative in the human rights area He has in fact repeatedly said it was necessary to prosecute those guilty of putting forth bad ideas The fact that there are worse guys within the Argentine military who want a full-scale effort against all Marxists e g the PCA does not mean that Videla because he opposes this view is trying to improve the human rights situation Videla is perhaps better described pragmatist who despite a weak and within the military government is acceptable compromises between the as a low key political a declining power base trying to work out contending forces To find Videla for OUR requests and personally comfortable with the thrust of OUR policy tends to exaggerate the influence and impact that our efforts have on Argentine domestic politics The big and almost the only game in town is military politics Our statements and actions have effect in that game but are small in comparison to such real questions as who will head the First Corps in 1979 who will be appointed governor etc Foreign Policy Redirections The Montes' opening to the Non-aligned and the East bloc diplomatic is viewed by the media the Argentine foreign policy establishment and by most Argentine serious observers of foreign policy as amateurism You emphasized correctly SE6R E'f NQ F9QEISU i9 60U'l'le ozo'i NW 5 4089 Docid 32453443 Page' 2 N_8 F8REI6M Me eem'i'R1t6'f 3 that the foreign policy human rights related probl ems with the US and Western Europe make a political shift in Argentina's foreign policy expedient What should have received equal emphasis is that this shift parallels Argentina's economic interests The United States and Western Europe are not markets for Argentine grains wine meat and hides much of it of lower quality but the Soviet Union Eastern Europe and China are Suggestions that the Argentines are moving towards a new diplomatic opening in the NAM must be balanced by two facts First this Argentine government has an anticommunist paranoia Secondly the deep racial prejudices in its own society make Argentine overtures for a leadership role in the Non-Aligned Movement suspect The same balan ing must be applied to any discussion of stronger political connections between the Argentines and the Communist nations How deep and cordial can relations be with the Socialist world for a goverrunent which declares and believes that its country is the battleground of the Third World War against Communism It is clearly a relationship of mutual convenience overlaying a base of mutual deep and enduring suspicions The thrust of your argument that U S human rights and nuclear policies stimulated the Argentine move towards the Non-aligned and the East Europeans is only part of the story My judgment is somewhat less grand Every Foreign Minister loves initiatives an opening to the East and to the Non-Aligned are attractive proposals which the agile Argentine Foreign Office can easily crank up for its Navy overlords Argenti ne foreign policy is in disastrous straits -- the Beagle the Falkvinas Corpus human rights and the image issue The Argentine President and Junta members are greeted during international visits with violent demonstrations Then all of a sudden someone produces a blueprint for a way out of the black box with a ticket to Belgrade and Moscow I hope the foregoing although dated is of value At least it shows that we read your stuff with great interest here in Buenos Aires Best regards Since r e_ l y Ji arris F First Secretary 8 E 8 R E 'f NQ FQ ISP1 N9 El0N'filHS'f NW 5408 9 Doc id 32453443 Page 3 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu