NOPORM11 291111119A- CDS CDSN CFS592 MCN 95004 22293 TOR 950041923 PTTSZYUW RUEKJCS5213 0041920-E6$6--RUEANSS ZNY 9S6DTG 041727Z JAN 95 FROM FM b 3 10 USC 424 CONTROLS b 3 10 USC 424 ___ - _______ _1 OF 02 SERIAL b 3 10 USC 424 THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE BODY COUNTRY U RUSSIA RS SUBJ b 3 10 USC 424 CHECHNYA CONFLICT U WARNING U THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE REPORT CLASSIFIED ----------------------------------------------------DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE --------------------------------------------- -------DOI U 950104 REQS U I b 3 10 USC 424 b 1 1 4 c 1 4 d TEXT THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXTRACT FROM A REPORT-THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION b 1 1 4 c 1 4 d APPROVED b7 4 c 1 4 d RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY IN CHECHNYA THROUGH 11 JANUARY M5- - b N-c c 1 4 d AIR AND ARTILLERY STRIKES A I TOTAL BLOCKADE AND ACTIVE PROPAGANDA b 1 1 4 c 1 4 d E page 94 REINFORCEMENT BY UNITS b 1 1 4 c 1 4 d DESPITE CERTAIN CONFLICTS WITHIN THE POLITICAL AND MILITARY LEADERSHIP CONCERNING THE METHOD OF RESOLVING THE CHECHNYA CRISIS THE COUNTRY'S LEADERSHIP IS COMMITTED TO NOT ALLOWING THE BREAK-AWAY OF CHECHNYA TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A PRO-RUSSIAN ADMINISTRATION THERE AND TO USING ALL MEANS TO ACCOMPLISH THESE GOALS AS A RESULT OF THE INTERVENTION OF THE RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES IN CHECHNYA b 1 1 4 c 1 4 d THEY DO NOT CONSIDER MILITARY OPERATIONS TO BE THE -W 1fc 1 4 d ROAD TO SUCCESS IN CHECHNYA SUCH ACTION COULD INTERFERE WITH THE PROCESS OF REFORM IN RUSSIA ITSELF-_ -- b a3 - e 1 4 d STIMATE THAT A POTENTIAL GUERILLA WAR IN CHECHNYA WOULD NECESSITATE THE DEPLOYMENT OF MORE THAN ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND TROOPS b 1 1 4 c 1 4 d IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT THE CURRENT DEMONSTRATION OF FORCE IS INTENDED TO ILLUSTRATE THE NEED FOR STRONG ARMED FORCES AND TO BRING TO A HALT FORCE REORGANIZATIONS AND BUDGET REDUCTIONS WITHIN THE MILITARY b 111 4 c 1 4 d I THE INVOLVEMENT OF DEPUTY CHAIRMAN SOSKOVETS WHO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE POLITICAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX THE METHOD OF RESOLVING THE CHECHNYA CRISIS HAS AGAIN BROUGHT TO LIGHT THE PROBLEM OF POWER IN MOSCOW AND YELTSIN AS THE GUARANTOR OF DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA WESTERN ANALYSTS HAVE AGAIN RAISED THE QUESTION OF WHETHER IT IS WORTHWHILE TO RELY ONLY ON YELTSIN WHOSE DECISIONS ARE MORE AND MORE INSCRUTABLE AND WHO IS EVER MORE INFLUENCED BY BEHIND-THE-SCENES POLITICIANS IN HIS DECISION-MAKING N r page 95 HOWEVER FOR THE TIME BEING THERE IS NO ACCEPTABLE ALTERNATIVE TO HIM THEREFORE WESTERN SUPPORT FOR YELTSIN WILL CLEARLY CONTINUE ANOTHER POLITICAL PARTY CRITICIZING RUSSIAN INTERVENTION IN CHECHENYA IS THE PRO-REFORM SHACHRAYOV PARTY OF RUSSIAN UNITY AND CONSENSUS ITS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE EMPHASIZED IN A DECLARATION THAT THE WAR IN CHECHENYA IS GROWING INTO A NATIONAL POLITICAL CRISIS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BLOODY CONFLICTS ELSEWHERE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION THE DECLARATION WENT ON TO STATE THAT THE CRISIS IN CHECHENYA IS CAUSING FURTHER POLARIZATION OF POLITICAL FORCES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A NEW DIVISION OF RUSSIAN SOCIETY COMMENTS U NONE b 3 10 USC 424 WARNING U REPORT CLASSIFIED -- WARNING NOTICE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES OR METHODS INVOLVED Bir e _-8_ _0I_ BT 45214 NNNN -mot page 96 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu