US Department of State Case No Doc No 006511172 Date 03 14 2018 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 GEORGE 02212 01 OF 02 1701532 ACTION INFO OCT-01 ADS-00 H-01 L-03 NSC-05 PA-01 83 1 5 AID-OT EB-08 OMB-01 085 1702032 64- 1214222 MAY 80 FM AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2466 INFO AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY PARAMARIBO AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN REVIEW AUTHORITY Richard Zorn Senior Reviewer I I A SECTION 1 OF 2 GEORGETOWN 2212 ED 12065 GDS 5 9 86 DWYER RICHARD A OR-M TAGS PINT GY SUBJECT SPRINGTIME POLITICS-NOTABLE FOR THEIR ABSENCE 1 C-ENTIRE TEXT 2 BEGIN SUMMARY THE PREVAILING POLITICAL TRANQUILITY IN GUYANA IS A CAUSE OF GENERAL COMMENT THE PRIME MINISTER IS SUFFICIENTLY AT EASE TO SPEND ELEVEN DAYS OUT OF THE COUNTRY BUT HE HAS NOT YET PROMULGATED THE MUCH TOUTED NEW CONSTITUTION OR SET A DATE FOR NATIONAL ELECTIONS THE OPPOSITION IS ALMOST EQUALLY BECALMED ALTHOUGH ONE SEGMENT TALKS OF TERRORISM SHOULD ITS LEADERS AS EXPECTED BE FOUND GUILTY OF POLITICALLY MOTIVATED ARSON SWEEPING CABINET CHANGES ARE RUMORED AND THEY WOULD IN FACT NOT BE SURPRISING CRIMINAL VIOLENCE AND THE INCREASING USE OF FORCE BY POLICE TO COUNTER IT ARE ON THE UPSWING THE POLITICAL CALM IS FRAGILE HOWEVER AND CONFRONTATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT PEACEFUL OR VIOLENT MAY WELL CENTER ABOUT NATIONAL ELECTIONS WHEN ONCE A DATE IS SET END SUMMARY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 GEORGE 02212 01 OF 02 1701532 3 THE RULING PEOPLES NATIONAL CONGRESS PNC APPEARS TO STILL BE RECOVERING FROM ITS ALL OUT AND GENERALLY SUCCESSFUL CELEBRATION OF THE TENTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE REPUBLIC LAST FEBRUARY GEORGETOWN 0752 BOTH PRO- AND ANTI-GOVERNMENT OBSERVERS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE ONE FACTOR FOR THE RECENT LACK OF POLITICAL INITIATIVE WHICH HAS NOTED GUYANA WAS TRANQUIL POLITICALLY DURING PRIME MINISTER LATE APRIL ELEVEN DAY AFRICAN TOUR THE PRIME UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 006511172 Date 03 14 2018 9990 G3I3ISSWONH 1VLLN3CII3NOO mwounoa s svaav 3NIN NMO Si 30 some NI Gaaosmds 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dim OZ mumm OIm0 _u nwm 0N OMEN 0M ON 3 00me gm Or 20mmd2m Omrrm 25020 4 1m 4 0 mom 4 1m chOmm O_n WCEZIZS OO mmZ m 032m mogm E151 I m 005 2021 Om_ _2m 5 2 mOwrmE mOwmemm mm wm_Z 002000 30 01 2020mm I m _Zomm mm0 CZOgmmimU Cm Umbma ma 9n m mwm Zo 000 20 Oomm njwm 0m 0035 030 65 7 US Department of State Case No Doc No 006511172 Date 03 14 2018 A REACTION HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASINGLY FORCEFUL AND IT HAS INCLUDED SWEEPS SUCH AS THAT WHICH SAW THE ARREST OF 154 I E IDLERS IN BERBICE TWO AGO MORE DISTURBING HOWEVER IS THE DEFINITE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SUSPECTS KILLED BY THE POLICE IN THE COURSE OF ARREST SPORADIC BURNINGS OF SUGAR CANE ARE BEING ATTRIBUTED TO WPA AND SABOTAGE BY THE GOVERNMENT ALTHOUGH SUGAR COMPANY SECURITY OFFICIALS ARE INCLUNED TO DOWNPLAY THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE INCIDENTS THE LATTER NOTE THAT THE BURNINGS HAVE NOT SERIOUSLY AFFECTED PRODUCTION AND THAT BURNINGS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE NOT UNEXPECTED AS WORKERS ATTEMPT TO PROLONG THE GRINDING SEASON AND HENCE THEIR SEASONAL EMPLOYMENT 9 THE AVERAGE HARASSED GUYANESE NOTHELESS TAKES SOME SATISFACTION IN THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THE JAMAICANS ARE ACHIEVING A MORE RAPID NEGATIVE GROWTH RATE THAT THE OIL RICH TRINIDADIANS ARE DOING NO BETTER WITH REGARD TO ELECTRICITY WATER AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS AND THAT WHILE CUBANS ARE FLEEING THEIR ISLAND IN SMALL CRAFT ACROSS OPEN SEAS THE GUYANESE FOR THE MOST PART CAN STILL WITH A LITTLE LUCK OR FRAUD IN THE MATTER OF VISAS LEAVE FREELY BY PAN AMERICAN THUS IT MAY BE THAT THE SPECTACLE OF OTHERS AS BADLY OFF OR WORSE SOME OF WHOM ARE NEIGHBORS MAY HELP ACCOUNT FOR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 GEORGE 02212 02 OF 02 1706292 THE RELATIVE TRANQUILITY OF RECENT GUYANESE POLITICS 9 IN SUM GUYANA FOR THE MOEMENT IS CALM POLITICALLY IT IS A GRAGILE CALMNESS HOWEVER WHICH COULD EASILY BE BROKEN BY ANY ONE OF A VARIETY OF FACTORS NATIONAL ELECTIONS WHEN ONCE SCHEDULED WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST NATURAL FOCUS OF CONFRONTATION WITH THERNMENT EITHER PEACEFUL OF VIOLENT - IN THE INTERIM TRADITIONAL GUYANESE POLITICAL APATHY IS WEARING SOMEWHAT THIN ROBERTS CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case N0 13-15063 Doc No Date 03 14 2018 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu