NATIONAL S Е С U R I Т У С О U N С I L N trch 23 1976 COUNTRY А N А L У S I S S Т R А Т Е G У Р А Р Е R F у 1976-77 ARGEN'ГINA 1 I J AИHASSADO ' C'ГEB'IIV Лs tl1e СА 3Р is Ьеiщ written Лrc нtina i iн а stat e c f' flнx t• r- l c· t Ыйf а centu ry h rt-rentiнa 1 г $ attc pteJ to adjust i tз puli tic- J ste 1 to t1Je demaшls of the m• xlern iiorld vlith the poli tical procc - снл iп 1 71 and culr iinating in t 1 e electi опs f 1 173 i t аин аrе i t G c 11г l e t last foU id t11e кау For the first tjг je si1н e tl e 'г 1 l j ·ca cs of' t11c cent ш-y г viг Ые pol i ticг l consensus was ucveloping c r on -1 i 1C yr rio· t secto _As Гтesiclent Peron cг rcfttlly nurtu rc1 i the C'OOpera ti c n a Y'ld S'J •port of the trг д е tl '1 io i t 1e r ili tary tl1e UCR the s' co 1d leтt est party in t11e cour- try t11e ес юС' 'l с sectors and of the other rol itical pc rties Не met e Y1d coZ1su lted 1 ith ea ch ree ularly a nd ea cn · h а sense of sharing in the cou r1try•·s c estinies Unfortunately for Arecntiпa a zever Peron died befo re the system of consensus politics coнld Ьс co i solidated Не left in his рlг се i нife · 1 0 tt 1gh gutsy and intuitive • totally j ne perience 1 г nd u ri5ifted fcr the j оЬ a t Ьанd Иэ nу ha u rxpcctc 1 he r go -erн -nent to coilaps ioec iately Тha·t i t did not was дuс to а co 1Ьin2 tion of fa ctors а first n espite the vagucness of t t E' ter1 1s r ost Ari entiпes valued tl c proccs of _institutionalizatio 1 ш1•J returп to consti tuticnalism up n 'r 1 ic 1 they ha ц_embarked in 1973 '01• bettcr cr orse Иrs Peron wг s tte ccnsti tutional P resid nt and iн ord r tc• prese r e tiJ process itsel1 ' ost неrе willing to gi Уе н r t 1e benef'i t of the doutt a rld vii th i t their suppo i t and alle ci ансе Ь SeconJly ther - as а na t1 U 'al tendency on the pг rt of the r 1•iert1 te г г d c0 1se r·Yati ve secto 's tr e greг t r ajori ty to rally to L et11cr aнrl ber ind Иrs Pero 1 in t e fг се of the terrorist threat frc 1 t 1e left for а t iш this 'helpгd preserYe the spiri t of co11esion i' пJ co izensus с Finэ lly t11ere a s а na tu -a l sympat11y for Hrs Peror t 1e berea-v - idc н i'acea · it11 p 1 ·t ssi1·1g p1·vЪ1ems Ancl as Pe1·0 1 1 s widG f she recei - red so e of the aura of charisw a г nd poli ticг l mar ic which 11нЛ surrounded hi 'n Harl Иr Реrоп follo- e l the co' l rse c 1a rte J Ь у 1 1· husband--i e eovernment bг sed on diг log 1e J1J cnse S' lS i ong а 11 1 1ajor ectors-- ш i сfю нт her г dvisors ore io ise ly sr e iig11t well ha ve retained r-uгport 8 i 1d got t irough tc the electioпs с ' 1977 t 1us мvDлcing - j r n tf'i cr ntl y the сг 1 1sе cf co 1sti t1 tio 1ali m Hnf rtu t1ate 1у she dic JOt Iпзtead she deer pha зized diг l gue a '1d retreatecl to а bra Тld cf ·cxcJ u3i· e politics i 11ic 1 i 1creasiп l·1 сг to resemЫe tl1e axЬitrг x•y r-tlle or а р йасе r rc up - ith Lcpe -P ga г s the court favorite a rid m st p·rrrcrfu l i ю j in the в o-v-err ent А retired police corporal and pra cticir g я trc1lc-r cr hc r ю1·е thc n anyone el e r1as ' 'irtшйly wrcckcd r•Is Peron 's • tш nrc r if p liti 'lll survi val utL'til l' П SЕСЫ 'Т SECP 1 1' i itl1 rs шpro1t terr01·is1 1 а co1lar inr goverrunent and an есоnоту ·н11icl1 1 1· 11 1i11 g into zerious рrоЫеш s Areentino faces n f rim e n l U '1certain ' - ntc futttre Т11е picture is not wi thout its rг vs of hope ho- -1eve1· i' w -e -e tO'i г rds constitutionalism г '1d stron institutions is strong • j 1 ' 1 i t has been Иrs Peron' s failu re to satisfy that ure e which in t _ fj J el a -1a lysis J oзt her mнсЪ support from the peC'ple Нopefully t• is tr ·ze ·ill 11elp Argeг tina t' right herself a nd re a in t 1e path rJ z p · 11ich she '-'а 5 moving before Peron' s death f 1eaнwhile hoнever there a re difficult da s ahead Tl1e strг tegy 1 t fc r a rd in the 9ASP is essentiг lly one of protecting our people а пJ rropcrt · fro n terroris• and our trade a i d investzпents from economic nt tior tJ lis• du ring this tryiг g pe1·id i rthile at the same tiп e doing he t li ttle не сг 11 to ·encou rage the deYelopment of ound insti tнticns 1d а 'iаЫе govern т ient The lг tter vroul d 5r p1y а Гiature hes lthy lrgcntina 1- Ьich could Ьесо е г Yery iir porta nt· inves t ent r 1 ct1·J et anri а key rro lucer of focxistuffs fo а юrld c f t morrow much in nced of tl1e -a n Argentina hich could buli· г rk the So lthern Cone and г сt az n f iTCe for mo leration аг d staЬility in South America as а '1-ihole 'Г11е inYerse нo·uld open the 1- э у for г 1 Argentina in нhich daпgerous 'act н n$ r iebt appea r and or in Yihich irresponsiЫe goverrur nts r igl1t cafry o t disruptive policies in t e r gion Т-nе development of souncl institutic ns is tr1en cry rr111ch in our iлt er zt ТhP re г 1з у Ье Yery little ·r e С3 1 do to as ist in th- proce s r нeв-tiг lly this is so- iethiпg tte A ·gentines mнst do for the2ZelYes Т11 · с1·н щсеs a re t1 e t the -rill t ho'J gh i t mг у take time t eг т lhile i- e sho' йd tг е M'lantage of fY opportunities that present t 1eh elves to cncoura ge the Л rgentines to-r1г r i more ·stг Ые responsiЫe go·1ernment Тl1is vrill Ье di scussed in greг ter д eta il in Is_sue · Но 1 Не belieYe that even during the difiicult days ahea d Argentina is likely to remain а constructive partner provided that is that the - о г t does not cor 1e to pass г _11d Argentina falls into extreIJ ist 1' ands Are ntina has been one of cur principal interlocutors and this is not lil ' to сhгдее even under а ne -1 goYern ' ent and а nevr Foreign f-linist r fo i · но r 11tter who пic ht im ediэ tely replг ce Иrs Peron if г nd · hen E-J-ii i з i·eplг ccd the fact is t11г t A rgentina nee 1 s tl1e US ce1·t inly as 1 11 1ch г s ' - е ne-eJ l r Не г 1·е а pri дr f soнrce of technology a nd а pri1i ' •y c rit al mэrket Tl1j s latter factor will рrоЬа Ыу Ьесо -е of in rea iпc imp· ·rtг rJ t· T' 1ere hз been no new investment to spea k of k Лci ritir з 1 or e l '11vst г уег т- 1d-э -hсµ_f ncr -1---cithQl' foreign cr it 'f'Шй li t r oш1ting viole11c e ar1 1 u 1'ice rtaint ie5 s to ' ho r a y сtч1 t i tute t 1e f• Verr1r ent а уеаз fr om ncr -1 t11ere is поt likely to Ь • il 'i J t 1e n i- x f'ut u c As i -Jr g- t1 at Arr entina uoes v it in the nc· t t' '• tr 1·ee ye 1 rs find а - 'i Ые governr ent defea·t or g i-co tly 'l •• о ·· • тr · j -• 'i l c il l p r-c -ь 1J y с - е Ьэ сk to 1101 i tice l ш_ 1 rйсу iг • · it• 11•- e t •f inve t1 nt Т е tG сап e xpect t· Ье t1ie 1 i1·st - •·11 t · ' 1· ri 1 i ·•• 1 xp rJ't Ln · i О t t1rn SECRE'I' A1·ecntin з also пееflз tl e UЗ becr- use her lea lers11ip Ьid iп thc 11c i p 1erc mэ nifestly ir volve ап interlocutor role bet тeen the r_ _ ru1 1 t11c more r arJical u1 ti l couлtrJ es For this strater Y to Ьс cf'fcct ivc she 11ee1ls co pcrati·ve гelaticлs wi th us Gubs шn й in t 1ir i ' Л1· cntina 1 5 conct rn г Ьсч 1t Ьсiщ fг ced Ьу а supposer1 HS n a1 i li э n ё xis to tl1e detri znt cf her ir terests l11 re are tl1 n stro ч i реrг ·Иуе for close агн1 л utua1ly 1н nr 1'j_cial UC -Argeпtine relations ju st г s there a re stronr interпa 1 i pc тatives to -1a rdr а more jщ·а'Ьlе institutionalized poli tical systc ' Perhaps O'Jr best instru I er 1 t far r e Y ir izing the ben1- fi ts to ш3 implicit in botJ1 lies tг rcugh tic ie l diplcmacy--in i cepinG open cJ1cu1nels of co т r 1 niceticn г п appropriate 1 -юrking 1·ele tl onship нi tl1 · indica tcd represзnta ti 7es of the GOA 1 obe1·t С Hill A 'г bassador