-' -' ' State Summary --Apri1- 6 1 1982 C NOFORN BUREAU OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH - ANALYSrS - APRIL 6 1982 1 UK THATCHER' 5 'F r t ND DILEMMA The British fleet will reach the Falkland erea'around April 20 We believe that Thatcher will be under hoo v y pre su e to order it into action if no compromise has been Degotiated or is in prospect She will not have the option of delaying indefinitely while diplomatic efforts continue The effectivenea of the fleet far from its maintencnce 'ba8es willrapidly cSet eri orate after its arrival on station Her damaged leadership could 'not survive a futile voyage to nowhere - o oo Argentina's invasion of the alkland Islands puts t i k Thatcher's own position Econornictroublea hadeost her tbe support of most Britons Now her hard core offaithful1'oriea are furious at the 'Falkland humiliation 'hey expect her to live upto her reputation as the Iron Lady o' If 'Thatcher f ail'S 1 0 redeem 'her ' reputaticn and the u ticn' honor she couldbef inished as Tory leader and Prlmo 'Minister Lord Carrington '-s resigrnation reinforces the rconcept ' Qf pe raonal accountabili-ty Yet military i'action i ull of ri'sk and ' British -reconquest i'f easible at iJ l1 i likely ' 0 be expen aive AI though ' the 'Bri ish pUblic 7ftOV cl amor8 or ill stroJl9 stand opinion 'could quickly 'turn vben 'the 1u11 ' range of coats 'inc udin9 imilitaryoand elv ilian casual tiea I W0 11d ecome apparent During 'the -next two weeks Tpatcher 'vil11 arch r ft ' '1 - ica1 'solution that 'doe s not appear 1 0 r-ewa-r4 ugentine r@t - sion 'The 'shape ofa eompromise deal i unclear but i be 'British insist on 'principle that an Argentine ' i raval lIWat form a -part 'Meanwhile 'Thatcher will be 1 r ying to obtain broad bipa tisan support in 'case hOBtil'itiea 'Stuat lbe %tIDttvee5 On't be diplomatic front the British ' w illlook1 o 'their ll1 oo i obelp 'pressure Argentina economically and poli tically The Br itish appear conf ident that i'liuJ 'Y crtion 11t nacee ' sary will be'successful If0such action rove - iDe ' eo-tu1 ' 'bloody the -ecnsequeneea could 90 well be ycmd at cber l ovn tall nd 8ncompass 'new l'ections land a' rory defoo t Jq '007 r yitW ' c - L lh-'j q b