m 9 Mmim a Date THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON 69W February 13 196 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM Henry A Kissinger INTELLIGENCE ITEMS Vietnamese Developments Yesterday The Vietnam experts 4% around town are almost unanimous now in their View that the Communists hope to throw a major military effort at the allies some time in the next two mo weeks Signs of it now abound in all types of intelligence from the war zone This week s field reportsl jfor example list a innumerable accounts of preparations for military and paramilitary action soon by enemy cadre These range from the stockpiling of supplies and the lno vement of military units into jump off positions to planning for an upsurge in political agitation in an attempt to create the impression of a pepular rebellion against the government The focus for the offensive still seems to be in the Corps area in the provinces west of Saigon and perhaps in the capital itself There is a lot-of evidence of planning in all other areas of the country however and the Communists are capable of setting off a widespread and relatively sus tainedprounds of shellings and light ground probes just about anywhere in South Vietnam Action outside Corps might follow largely the pattern of yester day s attack on the provincial toWn of Cheo Ree in the central highlands Here the Communists hit a major military installation on the town's outskirts with a heavy mortar and rocket attack and followed with a guerrilla raid which caused a good deal of damage along with a substantial number of civilian casualties among Southfv'ietnamese present at the base It is possible that the intensive allied preemptive action which has dealt the Communists some severe losses as they try to maneuver their units into attack positions will more or less pull the teeth of the enemy offensive There is a wide range of Opinion among the experts on this score the only consensus seems to be that the enemy is not strong enough to cause the damage that he managed to in ict last year at Tetace fps SANITEZED 50W smack ung Dani 213 By mm Date 5 WETW - WW -2- French Foreign Minister Debre stated in a speech yesterday that it was not surprising the Paris talks shouldmove slowly Asked what France could do to get the talks'moving he said he did not think it was up to France unless the parties asked her to depart from the role she fixed for herself certain secrecy however is sometimes needed for things to go well he added Tab A EO 1295831 3 -- Aircraft down in Cambodia A U S Array aircraft Otter was shot down early Wednesday morning in Cambodia The location is just over the border 14 miles south-southeast of Tay Ninh in the Parrots Beak area Map at Tab 13 Preliminary reports indicate that the crew members were captured The aircraft has been destroyed by U S tactical aircraft The aircraft was carrying our crew members when it crashed Aircraft of this type is used for in-country radio direction finding It is not known presently in Washington whether he had strayed over the border or was directed there The area of the crash however is heavily infested by North Vietnameseon both sides of the border and it is possible the aircraft was hit on one side and crashed on the other Jso 12953 A message has been sent to the Australian Embassy in Phnom Penh for'delivery to the Cambodian Government IR-KG As has been past practice the message brie y states the location of the downed aircraft and informs the RKG that an investigation of the incident is now in progress We have stated that in the meantime the U S Government would appreciate receiving any information available to the RKG on the incident and on the fate of the crew We have not yet heard from the Cambodians concerning the incident but expect that there will be a sharp reaction We may be able to form some estimate as to whether the is interested in pursuing improved relations with the U S from the level and tone of the protest and from the manner in which the RKG treats the four Americans who were probably captured by the Cambodians Wanna Iva mans 6W If -1 Manage-15 Lhatnquu-Js rmi LLJLUUI Ely a By NARA Date 5 WW Berlin The East German Foreign Minister publicly stated yesterday that his government plans new measures to prevent the holding of the Bundesversammlung Tab D -- West Germany A Foreign Ministry official told Embassy Bonn that State Secretary Duckwitz informed the Soviets the West Germans could no longer back down on holding the Bundesversammlung in Berlin now that the East Germans have announced travel restrictions The same source reported that Bundestag President Von Has sel will inform the Bundestag that he is sending the invitations to convene the Bundesversammlung in Berlin Tab E -- Moves to Recognize Communist China and UN Implications The Chinese Communists apparently have not yet responded to the Canadian demarche in Stockholm Italy is deferring any initiative at contact probably to see how the Canadians fare Uncertainty remains as to what the Belgians will do though they seem to have told others that they will refuse a Chinese communist demand to break relations with the GRC The Belgians have told us that their Government may have to make some sort of statement in answer to Parliamentary questions The GRC'expects a statement about February 21 and fears that it may force the GRC to break relations Our Ambassador in Brussels believes on the other hand that the Belgians are seriously concerned abOut- the status of the GRC and urges the latter to keep calm and avoid an impulsive reaction -- Interrogation of Chinese Detector Reports are becoming available of the preliminary interviewing 'of the Chinese diplomat who sought asylum in Holland So far there are no surprises Liao the defector does not expect a significant new Chinese demarche at Warsaw on February 20 but he is not privy to inside information Hefbelieves that the Chinese Communists are sincerely convinced of the reality of U S USSR collusion I against China On the internal side the Cultural Revolution Group has gained steadily in power but derives its real authority from Mao whose own power vis a vis resistance within the elite has grown steadily The Ninth Party Congress is expected to convene this year to set the stamp on a Maoist dominated new Party but Liao can only guess when The Central Bureaucracy will send only three members presumably to make room for more worker and peasant delegates The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been in such turmoil that even personal mail is not being regularly forwarded to Embassies Wan the change in administration 4 Date I Four Power Talks Ambassador Yost has reported the results of his first talks at the UN on the French proposal for a four power meeting on the Near East The British want a precise prior agreement on what will come out of the four-power talks They hope to avoid a discussion of the substance of Near East settlement but they think we should submit some proposal to offset the Soviet peace plan Yost props es a four-power statement which would urge the parties to cooperate more fully with Jarring and to avoid actions which would inhibit peacemaking Tab F Thantsuggests a four power statement asking the parties to accept the UN resolution with a view to its implementation Comment this could be difficult for the Israelis to accept because in the special vocabulary that has developed during the Jarring Mission implement implies a pro-Egyptian solution without negotiations Tab G Jarring wants an early fourw-powel' meeting because he feels that if nothing happens soon he will lose momentum He questions whether Yost's limited consensus statement will be enough and would like the four powers to agree on the meaning of the UN resolution and the way in which it is to be implemented Tab H - -Views of North Vietnamese in Paris North Vietnamese delegates to the Paris talks are reported to be uneasy about the effects on the talks by I Although they have no doubt whatsoever that you really wish to reach a peaceful settlement they believe there is now less domestic pressure than under President Johnson They believe therefore that the US government is now working under far less pressure of time and is less desperate for a speedy settlement The North Vietnamese also find it difficult to adjust to the personality and methods of Ledge Although they considered Harriman a tough negotiator they were used to his style but have not yet accustomed themselves to that of Lodge Tab 1 --Secretary of State Roger's Evening Report is at Tab J WED if WW - - By Date i 7 an it WE -5 WORD -- Lima A delegation from Peru has departed on a two week trip to Communist'China for the purpose of purchasing rice to bolster Peru's rice supply which has been hard hit by drought This marks the rst time rice sales have been conducted directly with the Chinese on government to government basis Tab K west Germany USSR An experienced Soviet journalist in Bonn stated thathe thought the USSR will not make a big issue over the meeting of the Federal Assembly The journalist said the USSR will register a formal protest and will permit the East Germans to take some measures in the fOrm oi increased toll on the Autobahn The journalist was convinced that the USSR would not now be seeking a con frontation with the Nixon administration Tab L