a ax - DECLASSIFIED SECRET DEPARTMENT OF STATE Washington D C 20520 June 17 1980 MEMORANDUM - Mr Paul Hare - Robert A Martin TO FROM SUBJECT Naval Research Laboratory NRL Analysis of Data Relevant to 22 September 1979 Possible Nuclear Event 7 In response to your memorandum of June 12 we contacted Dr Jack Varona DIA to verify statements on this subject attributed to him by Ms Cook of Dr Varona made the following observations - the Ruina panel report on the 22 September event was indeed a whitetwash due to political considerations - the Ruina panel uSed flimsy evidence and analysis to arrive at a probable non nuclear explanation In fact the weight of the evidence points toward a nuclear event -recent analysis of hydrOacoustic data by the NRL has traced the location of the possible nuclear event to relatively shallow waters between Prince Edward and Marion Islands south of South Africa The hydroacoustic signals which at 1 5 Hz frequency are thought by NRL to be unique to nuclear shots in a maritime environ ment were received at two collecting stations Ascension Island and Argentia Newfoundland The former signals were received directly while the latter were received after being reflected from a point in NRL will soon issue an official report on these latest hydroacoustic findings which were not fully available to the Ruina panel or the DCI's Nuclear Intelligence Panel when they issued their recent reports on the 22 September event RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN I RELEASABLE TO CONTRACTORS OR Wt m star- gram 7 a - - mu ryz'mw m r- age-1- hnw 1 1 3 ma Wu DECLASSHHED Authorityamn g SECRET fMgum 4- --there is no evidence of a deep hole in the shallow ocean floor at the spot or of two sighting towers on the islands In the past South Africa has surveyed the islands and has operated a small meteoroloqical station on Prince Edward Island it is well accepted within the intelligence community that radioactive waste would not necessarily have been detected from a low-yield near surface nuclear ex plosion in a maritime environment SOuth of the African continent We will keep you informed of ongoing intelligence community efforts to obtain more information on the 22 September event Attachments Hare Memo - June 12 1980 Cook Memo June 10 l980 cc AF Mr Moose - Mr Locke - Mr Guhin Mr Thorne Drafted - RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN RELEASABLE TO CONTRACTORS OR CONTRACTOR-CONSULTANTS $DECLASSIFIED Authoritymil w DEPARTMENT OF STATE Washinzton D C 20520 June 12 1980 CONFIDENTIAL Mr Locke Mr Thorne Mr Guhin FROM Paul J Hare y SUBJECT Reported Naval Research Relevant to September 22 Suspected Event Attached is a largely self explanatory memo randum from Frances Cook Director of Public Affairs for AF While most of its contents cause no surprise here we are familiar with the views of BIA on this matter the information contained in the last three ticks is new to us I would appreciate any in ormation you may have on these points and your assessment of the NRL data Attachment is stated u a cc AF - Mr Moos g1 x 28432 CONFIDENTIAL GDS 6 12 86 met AmmanMieidiiLZ CONFIDENTIAL June 10 1980 manomnnm T0 - AF - me Home FROM - Frances D Cook SUBJECT Nuclear Event South Africa ii As requested what follows is a summary of what I told you this morning -- during my Intelligence and Eoreign policy course at PSI director FSO Ed Aaitland last week we spent one day at CIA and one day at - during both visits the nuclear event was disucssed CIA didn't seem to know much I asked both the BBQ rep and the expert on satellite photography but the DIA's head of Science and Technology Dr Jack Verona was voluble on the subject 4 9 3 --in sum he alleged that the White House Press report was a white-wash due to political considerations -in his lab they had calculated the probability of the Vela producing a like-nuclear 'footprint' from lightning and or comets and that mathmatically it came to something like the age of the universe in other words the chances-of such an occurence were nil f- more importantly he said that some seismic work recently done by the NRL Naval Research Lab I believe not only traced the exact location of the blast--between two islands whose names he called but I don't remember m-in South African territorial waterszbut also said there was a deep hold in the shallow ocean floor at the Spot and that two sighting towers can be seen on the islands he also explained why there would be no radioactive waste from such a blast cc Paul Hare Nu-umW mw 31 W v mm