DECLASSHHED Authority 29026 DocId 31291446 CJCS Memo M-72-7l 23 September l971 - SENSITIVE ORIGINAL AND ONLY COPY MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD Subj NSC Meeting Monday 20 September 1971 iv 1 The meeting was held to review the situation in SVN HELMS gave a rundown on the general situation from primarily a politi- cal point of view -CJCS outlined the military situation in Laos Cambodia and SVN--emphasizing that the NVN did not have the cap- ability battalion size and larger to conduct operations until they had restored their former logistics posture following the forthcoming Dry Seasou Much discussion revolved around the forthcoming Presidential Election in SVN and all agreed that THIEU made a mistake in not accepting MINH and KY The fact that there is no candidate to oppose THIEU has caused us considerable diffi-- culty and has become a key factor in Congressional attitudes towards the war in Vietnam despite the fact that we were able to win approval of the extension of the Selective Service Act authority 2 The Vice'President noted that he believes emotionally the US is on the threshold of a resurgence of anti-war demonstratiOns So far the acts by THIEU has stimulated movements which are a precursor of democracies 3 The Vice President advised that we should stick with the current policy and not deve10p new intiatives at this time SECDEF express- ed his concern over the POWs and repeated thexecent position provided by the CJCS in noting that there is no leverage on NVN left except the humanitarian one - SECSTATE said we must forget about Paris and not nightlight activities over there Under no circumstances can we trade withdrawals for POWs 5 The President commented that two- thirds of the countries which re ceive assistance from the US are not democracies and gave Greece as an example which is a country receiving straight aid If we cut off 'aid to SVN we will cut off all aid including that to Africa 6 SECTREASURY agreed with the Vice President with respect to the potential up surge of demonstrations etc but said he hepes he is wrong He believes that most of the US people consider the Vietnam War over We -should take a position that we have a winning policy and that war or no war we are against Communism in its aggressive role The Vietnam War is simply an offShoot of the firm position taken in the US to stop Communist aggression 7 SECDEF said that we should remember that during his first visit to Vietnam COMUSMACV ABRAMS asked if he could have 12-18 months we have been winding down the war successfully now for almost three years 8 SECDEF took this opportunity to emphasise to the President and incidentally to SECSTATE that military assistance is a key factor in the NIXON Doctrine and the total force cencept He said the jig is up if centrol of military aid goes to the Foreign RelatiOns Committee This was said primarily for the benefit of SECSTATE 9 The Vice President cautioned that we shuld watch for efforts on the part of the NVN to increase US casualties This will start the demonstrations l have passed this on to CINCPAC 10 The President stated that the NVN have restraints and they knew it and they damn wEll better not forget ll The President then summarized He said he is happy to see that everyone is on the same track We must stay clear at this point of speculating as to the nature and extent of withdrawals The an nouncement will be made in the middle of November since we do not now know the'circumstances that will exist we cannot be specific Page 1 of 2 Pages Copy 1 of 1 Copy DECLASSIFIED - SENSITIVE ORIGINAL AND ONLY COPY He said we must maintain discipline in our own group and not speculate If asked what happenskif THIEU is killed we should not reply but rather say that we don't expect this to happen We must realize that the murder of DIEM in which the US was involved set off-a train of coups which gave greater encourage ment to the NVN The coup road is unstable Continuing the war is destabilizing and it is also very hard to have an election during a war -- very few countries tried it 12 The US is supporting THIEU Do not discuss what if some-- thing happens We could bug out and make political capital on the short term but it would be a draster worldwide Countries of the world would become suspicious they would say you have deserted DIEM THIEU and who is next 13 The President said we are at a position where we are committed and the failure or success of our policy depends on continuing our present trend towards our goals The SVN are reaching a point where they can defend themsalves Look at NVN where Communism took over and killed half a million men imagine what would happen in SVN The President went on to say that we have some good things going for us such as the Chinese initiative As he sees it from a long range not a short range View the1guestbn is shall we talk now and have some kind of stah ization or shall we fight later -- 10 or 15 years from now T H MOORER Page 2 of 2_Pages Copy 1 of 1 Copy DocId 31291446 Iz i This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu