1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Dear readers Please be advised that the Russia Analytical Report will not be coming out on Dec 25 or Jan 1 due to U S public holidays We look forward to resuming publication Jan 8 I U S and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda Nuclear security No signi cant commentary North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs No signi cant commentary Iran and its nuclear program No signi cant commentary New Cold War saber rattling No signi cant commentary NATO-Russia relations “NATO Expansion What Gorbachev Heard ” Svetlana Savranskaya and Tom Blanton GWU’s National Security Archive 12 12 17 https nsarchive gwu edu brie ng-book russia-programs 2017-1212 nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early The authors a senior research fellow and the director at the National Security Archive respectively write that newly declassi ed documents lend credence to claims that Western leaders repeatedly reassured their Soviet counterparts during German reuni cation in the early 1990s that NATO would not seek to expand eastward “U S Secretary of State James Baker’s famous ‘not one inch eastward’ assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9 1990 was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet o cials throughout the process of German uni cation in 1990 and on into 1991 according to declassi ed U S Soviet German British and French documents posted by the National Security Archive at George Washington University ” the authors write The documents show these negotiations “were not at all narrowly limited to the status of East German territory and that subsequent Soviet and Russian complaints about being misled about NATO expansion were https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 1 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters founded in written contemporaneous memcons and telcons at the highest levels … President George H W Bush had assured Gorbachev during the Malta summit in December 1989 that the U S would not take advantage ‘I have not jumped up and down on the Berlin Wall’ of the revolutions in Eastern Europe to harm Soviet interests but neither Bush nor Gorbachev at that point or for that matter West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl expected so soon the collapse of East Germany or the speed of German uni cation ” Not all European leaders were on the same page the authors note French leader Francois Mitterrand told Gorbachev in Moscow that he was “personally in favor of gradually dismantling the military blocs ” the authors write while noting that the French leader “continued the cascade of assurances by saying the West must ‘create security conditions for you as well as European security as a whole ’” “Russia and NATO Headed for a Missile Arms Race in Europe ” Dave Majumdar The National Interest 12 17 17 http nationalinterest org blog the-buzz russia-nato-headed-missile-arms-race-europe-23693 page show The author who is the magazine’s defense editor writes that “at this point the INF treaty is essentially dead It is very unlikely that the Kremlin will return to compliance with the treaty anytime soon Indeed in many ways the treaty was outdated—the most obvious drawback is that it is a bilateral treaty … Perhaps the best option is to negotiate a new treaty that includes other parties such as China ” Missile defense No signi cant commentary Nuclear arms control “U S -Russia arms control was possible once—is it possible still ” Strobe Talbott Brookings Institution 12 12 17 https www brookings edu blog order-from-chaos 2017 12 12 u-s-russia-arms-controlwas-possible-once-is-it-possible-still The author a former journalist and ambassador and currently a distinguished fellow at the think tank urges policymakers in the U S and Russia to “take a lesson from their predecessors” before concluding that current relations are too tense to deal meaningfully with arms control Near-catastrophes like the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 “convinced the leaderships in Washington and Moscow how dangerous unregulated nuclear competition was ” the author writes “As a result they initiated a long tough but ultimately successful series of agreements that stabilized mutual deterrence thereby keeping the nuclear peace intact even as the ideological and geopolitical struggle raged If our current leaders let the arms control regime unravel the years ahead could all too plausibly be even more perilous than the Cold War itself ” “If the INF Treaty Dies America and Russia Could See an Arms Race And It Would Be a Massive Waste of Money ” Leonid Nersisyan The National Interest 12 17 17 http nationalinterest org feature if-the-inf-treaty-dies-america-russia-could-see-arms-race-23680 page show  The author a Russian military columnist argues that the Senate’s allocation of $58 million for the development of intermediate-range ballistic missiles will bring the INF Treaty “closer to dissolution than ever before … The potential withdrawal of one party—either Russia or America—from the INF Treaty would lead to a full dissolution of the treaty itself This development has two possible https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 2 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters outcomes the parties blatantly restart production of a small quantity of ground-based cruise missiles … and stop at that or a more serious arms race will begin Russia has a better starting position in such a race ” “Enough Is Enough Why the U S Must Address Russia’s Violations of the INF Treaty ” Lawrence J Korb and Shannon McKeown The National Interest 12 17 17 http nationalinterest org feature enough-enough-why-the-us-must-address-russias-violations-the-23678 page show The authors a senior fellow and an intern at the Center for American Progress respectively argue that “the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force INF Treaty is in jeopardy … The current political landscape is very di erent than in 1987 when the Treaty was negotiated—incentivizing the Russians to come to the table without deploying new nuclear weapons or escalating tensions will be a political and diplomatic test The best way for the United States to deal with this issue is through diplomacy The Trump administration must engage in direct talks with the Russians to encourage them to reenter compliance with the treaty once again ” See also “NATO-Russian relations” above and “Ukraine” section below Counter-terrorism No signi cant commentary Conflict in Syria “Putin's Plan for Syria ” Dmitri Trenin Foreign A airs 12 13 17 http carnegie ru publications fa 75001 The author the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center outlines some of the challenges facing Russian President Vladimir Putin in Syria where “through military intervention and diplomatic maneuvering ” he has made his country into “one of the major players in the con ict ” The fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is one key question “Now he looks and behaves like a victor and may be thinking that he does not need the Russians as much as he used to The Kremlin however understands that restoring his control over all of Syria is impossible and even undesirable since other groups from the Sunni opposition to the Kurds adamantly reject this outcome ” The author continues “Syria is de facto divided into several enclaves controlled by di erent forces the Assad government anti-Assad opposition groups pro-Turkish and proIranian militias and the Kurds ” While Russia insists on the territorial unity of Syria it also favors real autonomy for the Kurds There are also the interests of neighboring countries and powers to consider “Even as Moscow supported the Assad regime with its air power Iran and its allied militias were ghting on the ground After the war Tehran wants to institutionalize its presence on the ground in Syria both to in uence the future of that country and to maintain a physical link to its main regional ally Hezbollah”—a reality Russia must balance with Israel’s interests “Israel Draws a Redline in Syria Will Russia Prevent an Iran-Israel Showdown ” Meir Javedanfar Foreign A airs 12 14 17 https www foreigna airs com articles middle-east 2017-12-14 israel-draws-redlinesyria The author an Israel-based expert on Iran writes about the momentary alignment of Russian and Israeli interests amid the shifting sands of the Syrian civil war Israel the author https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 3 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters notes sent a clear message when it struck a military site near Damascus that reportedly housed Iranian forces “Israel will not tolerate the permanent presence of Iranian militias and military infrastructure in Syria ” But the author writes that message was also meant for Russia “So far Russian and Iranian goals in Syria have been aligned but that is changing as the war enters a new phase Although Russian President Vladimir Putin would not hesitate to act against Israel if necessary the two countries have common interests in Syria—and those common interests may help Israel enforce its redline against Iran … The Kremlin recognizes that pressure from Israel could strengthen its hand when it comes to convincing Assad that he should not allow Iran to carry out its apparent plans for a permanent military base in Syria ” “Kennan Cable No 28 Russian and U S Roles in the Middle East An Israeli’s Perspective ” Yuri Teper Wilson Center 12 12 17 https www wilsoncenter org publication kennan-cable-no-28-russian-and-usroles-the-middle-east-israelis-perspective The author a postdoctoral fellow at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem writes “Russia’s perceived determination and readiness to use force coupled with its consistent policy allowed that nation to signi cantly increase its leverage in the Middle East far beyond its actual power or investment of resources might suggest … In contrast the perceived lack of U S credibility among both its allies and opponents signi cantly inhibited the originally much stronger American position Consequently the United States lost its role as a pivotal security guarantor for its regional allies … Like the traditional Sunni regimes the Israeli leadership came to realize it would have to assume full responsibility for its security without relying on U S mediation … The Israeli case … vividly demonstrates that the ‘new Cold War’ paradigm that is often introduced as shorthand to describe the presumed emerging stando between Russia and the United States in the Middle East is invalid and misleading In contrast to the Cold War era currently there is no clear and inescapable divide between the two camps The secondary players enjoy much greater room for political maneuvering and therefore stronger bargaining positions relative to the two powers ” Cyber security No signi cant commentary Elections interference “The Real Russia Scandal ” Bret Stephens New York Times 12 15 17 https www nytimes com 2017 12 15 opinion russia-trump-putin html mtrref www google com gwh d58c7f03fa 68dd9391dabe4ca337af gwt pay assettype opinion The author a columnist for the newspaper o ers several theories https www russiamatters org blog just-what-doeshe-see-him-8-theories-trumps-a ection-putin for President Donald Trump's seeming infatuation with Russian President Vladimir Putin “ a The president is infatuated with authoritarians at least those who atter him b he’s neurotically neuralgic when it comes to the subject of his election c he’s ideologically sympathetic to Putinism with its combination of economic corporatism foreign-policy cynicism and violent hostility to critics d he’s stupid or e he’s vulnerable to Russian blackmail ” The author’s answer is all of the above “But let’s have that conversation at another time There’s no need to obsess about electoral collusion when the real issue is moral capitulation ” https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 4 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters “The Russia facts are hiding in plain sight ” David Ignatius Washington Post 12 14 17 https www washingtonpost com opinions the-russia-facts-are-hiding-in-plain-sight 2017 12 14 81de3c56-e10611e7-89e8-edec16379010_story html utm_term ac2e1847621e The author a columnist for the newspaper writes that President Trump’s latest denunciations of the Russia investigation recall the famous legal advice “If the facts are against you argue the law If the law is against you argue the facts If the law and the facts are against you pound the table and yell like hell ” Trump is now pursuing the latter course the author writes citing a litany of damning facts that have already come to light These include the March 2016 meeting between Trump campaign advisor George Papadopoulos and a London professor who would later tell him “the Russians had emails of Clinton thousands of emails” and Donald Trump Jr ’s email ahead of a June 9 meeting at Trump Tower in which he said Russian authorities “o ered to provide the Trump campaign with some o cial documents and information that would incriminate Hillary ” “In battle with Mueller Trump has a big advantage that Nixon did not ” Greg Sargent The Washington Post 12 18 17 https www washingtonpost com blogs plum-line wp 2017 12 18 in-battle-withmueller-trump-has-a-big-advantage-that-nixon-did-not utm_term 0e1db65dacb9 The author writes that “what we are seeing right now in the Russia a air is a kind of double game Fox News and a constellation of President Trump's outside allies are escalating their attacks on the special counsel and on law enforcement even as Trump's lawyers—and Trump himself—keep telling us that Trump has no intention of trying to remove Robert S Mueller III … T his double-track approach will take us into new territory Trump is heading into a period of some sort of sustained confrontation with the special counsel and with law enforcement that is similar to the one Richard Nixon entered into just over four decades ago Yet Trump will be bene ting from a very powerful and far-reaching network of media propaganda on his behalf — one that casts all these ongoing e orts to subject Trump to basic accountability as fundamentally illegitimate — that is nothing like anything Nixon had at his disposal ” “Russia's threat unchecked by Mr Trump ” Editorial Board The Washington Post 12 16 17 https www washingtonpost com opinions global-opinions russias-threat-unchecked-bytrump 2017 12 16 0c30c962-e0 -11e7-bbd0-9dfb2e37492a_story html utm_term ac170a3296a1 “The cacophonous and frequently confusing debates over the Russia investigations … tend to obscure some big and virtually uncontested truths that the regime of Vladimir Putin intervened in the 2016 election with the intention of harming U S democracy that it will almost certainly seek to do so again and that there has been no concerted e ort to defend the country from this national security threat … A comprehensive report by Post reporters Greg Miller Greg Ja e and Philip Rucker contains dismaying evidence of the resulting dysfunction Mr Trump has never held a Cabinet-level meeting on the Russian intervention or on how to prevent its recurrence At the National Security Council it is understood that to bring up the Russian threat is to risk enraging the president The same goes for the CIA o cials who conduct Mr Trump's daily intelligence brie ng they sometimes leave material on Russia out of the oral session so as not to send the session ‘o the rails ’ in the words of a former senior o cial ” Energy exports from CIS No signi cant commentary https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 5 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters U S -Russian economic ties No signi cant commentary U S -Russian relations in general “Trump National Security Strategy Sees U S Confronting China and Russia ” David E Sanger and Mark Landler New York Times 12 18 17 https www nytimes com 2017 12 18 us politics trump-securitystrategy-china-russia html The authors describe “President Trump’s rst national security strategy ” released Dec 18 a document that “envisions a world in which the United States confronts two ‘revisionist’ powers—China and Russia—that are seeking to change the global status quo often to the detriment of America’s interests But while the document outlines a detailed plan to push back against China’s global economic ambitions it says little about dealing with the kind of cyber and information warfare techniques that Moscow used to try to in uence the 2016 presidential election ” “A revived Russia and the U S vie for center stage ” Thomas Graham and Eugene Rumer Financial Times 12 17 17 https www ft com content 94f74692-e0df-11e7-a0d4-0944c5f49e46 The authors a managing director at Kissinger Associates and an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace respectively write that “over the past 25 years … t he U S grew accustomed to the world following its lead No more Both the world and America have changed And lately it seems as if another country is emerging as the new indispensable nation on the world stage—Russia Certainly this is what President Vladimir Putin wants us to believe … Although Washington’s demonization of Russia would suggest otherwise the U S should be able to engage Moscow with con dence It still leads the world in hard and soft power and attracts more talented enterprising people from around the world than any other country American ideals are widely shared and admired even if the country is doing a poor job of living up to them It may no longer be the indispensable nation as that idea was understood in the 1990s but it still remains more indispensable as a partner in more places than Russia The U S just needs to regain the will to act like the great power it is ” II Russia’s relations with other countries Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries “The End of European Bilateralisms Germany France and Russia ” Sabine Fischer Carnegie Moscow Center 12 12 17 http carnegie ru commentary fa 74950 The author the head of the Russia Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security A airs examines the shifting attitudes in France and Germany toward Russia “The German attitude toward Russia was and is shaped by the legacy of World War II The DNA of Willy Brand’s 'Ostpolitik' became deeply engraved in the German collective memory as a key contribution to German uni cation and the end of the Cold War Political relations between Germany and Russia were underpinned by growing economic interdependence ”  France by contrast “occupies only a minor position in Russia’s foreign trade … From a French perspective political partnership between the two countries unfolded more on the international level where France and Russia share a number of key features both have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council both are nuclear powers https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 6 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters and consider themselves great powers in the international system both have often taken issue with U S international hegemony ” However the author notes the attitudes informing French and German policy toward Russia have changed substantially over the past few years “Trust in Russia has crumbled particularly with the experience of Russian attempts to impact elections ” “Actually Egypt Is a Terrible Ally ” Andrew Miller and Richard Sokolsky New York Times 12 18 17 https www nytimes com 2017 12 18 opinion united-states-egypt-pence html The authors former government o cials who are now analysts at the Project on Middle East Democracy and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace respectively argue that “any doubts that Egypt has ceased to be a strategic partner to the United States were eliminated with the recent preliminary Egyptian-Russian agreement to grant reciprocal access to each other’s air bases But this is just the most recent example of profoundly unfriendly behavior by a purported friend In Libya Egypt has consistently provided military support to Gen Khalifa Hifter whose Libyan National Army has clashed with forces loyal to the internationally recognized and United States-backed government At the United Nations Security Council Egypt has made common cause with Russia to oppose the United States on issues from Syria to Israel Palestine And this year revelations emerged of Egyptian military and economic cooperation with North Korea ” China No signi cant commentary   Ukraine “Interpreting the Bomb Ownership and Deterrence in Ukraine’s Nuclear Discourse ” Polina Sinovets and Mariana Budjeryn Wilson Center December 2017 https www wilsoncenter org sites default les npihp_working_paper_12_sinovets_budjeryn_ownership_deterrence _ukraine_nuclear_discourse_0 pdf Nuclear deterrence thinking has become so entrenched in U S academic and policy circles that it only seems natural that other states regard nuclear weapons in the same terms Yet is it necessarily so In this article the authors examine the case of Ukraine to understand how its leaders interpreted the value of the nuclear weapons deployed on Ukrainian territory in 1990-1994 They demonstrate that deterrence thinking far from being a natural  or systemically determined way of regarding nuclear weapons is a socially constructed and historically contingent set of concepts and practices The authors examine what broader conclusions can be drawn from the decision of the leaders of Ukraine to not maintain a nuclear deterrent at its inception as an independent state “Further research is necessary to understand why deterrence thinking was so conspicuously lacking in Ukraine and why the military defense industry and expert communities that could have generated such thinking failed to formulate a more forceful position in favor of deterrence ” the authors note “Ukraine’s case supports the argument that technological availability and scienti c capacity the so-called supply-side of nuclear proliferation is far from being determinative of the decision to go nuclear … At the same time it suggests that the political and security motivation the so-called demand-side of proliferation may be more complex than previously assumed ” https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 7 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters “Through a Glass Darkly Three Scenarios for Russian Aggression in Ukraine ” Michael Kofman American Enterprise Institute 12 12 17 https www aei org publication through-a-glass-darkly-threescenarios-for-russian-aggression-in-ukraine The author a research scientist at CNA Corporation and fellow at the Kennan Institute writes “The con ict in Ukraine remains an interstate war though its relatively stable front line is beset by recurrent cycles of escalation … Russia’s overarching objective remains keeping Ukraine in its privileged sphere of in uence denying the country opportunities to join either NATO or the European Union … Given the interests at stake Russian leadership is unlikely to let the present situation drift with its attendant political and economic costs without taking some action to alter the present state of a airs ” “Russia’s Un nished Business in Ukraine ” Andrew Wilson American Enterprise Institute 12 12 17 https www aei org publication russias-un nished-business-in-ukraine The author a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations writes that Russia “still has unresolved issues with accepting Ukraine’s right to exist as a nation-state and Russia is likely to try to keep Ukraine weak and dysfunctional in whatever way possible ” He continues “Although Ukraine is less vulnerable to Russian subversion and destabilization than it was in 2014 Russia will concentrate its e orts in the many areas where Ukraine is weakest … Ukraine making real economic and political progress is the best protection against Russian destabilization ” “Democracy in Ukraine Four years after the Euromaidan ” Denys Kiryukhin Russia File Kennan Institute 12 11 17 https www wilsoncenter org blog-post democracy-ukraine-four-years-after-theeuromaidan The author a research scholar at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine writes there is still hope for democracy in Ukraine four years after the Euromaidan protests despite new accusations “of corruption and ine ciency as oligarchs have taken over the o ces of high-ranking o cials and control the political activity of many parliamentarians ” The author points to several alarming recent trends including that “street democracy and direct action remain the only e ective means for citizens to in uence the decisions of the authorities” and “disappointment in the choice of democracy and a European vector of integration” and the rise of “populism and radical nationalism ” Despite all this the author writes changes are possible “Today Ukraine urgently needs support for democratic reforms but a signi cant change in course heading is possible only if the country becomes more integrated into Western institutions than it is now ” “How I Went From the Governor’s O ce to a Jail Cell ” Mikheil Saakashvili New York Times 12 15 17 https www nytimes com 2017 12 15 opinion mikheil-saakashvili-ukraine-russia html The author former president of Georgia and former Odessa governor writes “The prosecutor general announced that I am an agent of the Russian secret police and that my goal is to destabilize Ukraine Ukraine is indeed being destabilized by Russia And indeed Russia has powerful allies in this destabilization Ukraine’s homegrown greedy and corrupt elites who have turned what could be one of Europe’s wealthiest countries into one of its poorest … As in other countries in Eastern Europe Ukraine’s success I believe lies in the reversal of a trend in which oligarchs who have learned to manipulate elections are winning ” Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 8 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters “Uzbeks Feel Challenged by October Terror Attack ” Navbahor Imamova The National Interest 12 14 17 http nationalinterest org feature uzbeks-feel-challenged-by-october-terror-attack-23657 The author a journalist with the Voice of America’s Uzbek Service writes that about “350 000 immigrants have arrived in the U S from Central Asia since the 1950s The largest group Uzbeks is scattered from Key West Florida to Anchorage Alaska with estimated numbers at 250 000 … Yet these new Americans—citizens and Green Card holders—remain atomized and politically passive… Now that may be changing… The Oct 31 attack in New York by Sayfullo Saipov has fueled new debates about what it means to be both Uzbek and American at a time of political ferment in the United States around questions of extremism immigration and both the causes and consequences of terrorism … Uzbekistan is not the overgeneralized ‘hotbed of Islamic extremism’ that some Western media have claimed Still while the community at home and abroad may resent the association with ‘terrorists ’ … lack of justice widespread corruption poverty and complex socio-economic conditions are the principal factors that drive millions of young Uzbeks to look for opportunities overseas And a small percentage of these people may have turned to ISIS and other radical movements ” “Estonia Potential Vulnerabilities Amid Progress ” Agnia Grigas American Enterprise Institute 12 18 17 http www aei org publication estonia-potential-vulnerabilities-amid-progress utm_source paramount utm_medium email utm_campaign grigas-giles utm_content new-research The author a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council argues that “all three Baltic States have been consistently targeted by Moscow’s compatriot policies information warfare and various forms of military intimidation there is an ever-present risk that Russia will try to use the Baltic states’ sizable ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority to advance its foreign policy and potentially even territorial ambitions by subverting local governance and exacerbating internal political and social rifts Estonia and its allies would do well to deter and prepare for Russia’s hard o enses while mitigating and neutralizing its softer e orts at destabilization ” “Russian Hostile Action Against Estonia Military Options ” Keir Giles American Enterprise Institute 12 18 17 http www aei org publication russian-hostile-action-against-estonia-military-options utm_source paramount utm_medium email utm_campaign grigas-giles utm_content new-research The author a researcher with Chatham House in London and the Con ict Research Studies Centre in Cambridge UK argues that “Russia’s past aggression toward states along its periphery calls into question what action it might take against Estonia” and considers “three possible scenarios for military intervention against Estonia in decreasing order of scale a full-scale military o ensive a limited ‘land grab’ and an ongoing campaign of subversion with no intent to take or hold territory ” He concludes that “continuing prioritization of military and civil resilience for Estonia is both prudent and a sound investment of local and NATO resources ” III Russia’s domestic policies Domestic politics economy and energy “Putin’s Legacy Brezhnev Lite ” Andrew C Kuchins Russia Matters 12 14 17 https www russiamatters org blog putins-legacy-brezhnev-lite The author a senior fellow at Georgetown's Center for Eurasian Russian and East European Studies argues that we are getting “a good sense not just of the domestic economic policies we can expect from President Vladimir Putin who did not https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 9 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters exactly shock the world this month when he announced his candidacy for another six-year term but also a hint of the legacy we might expect him to leave behind when his time as Russia’s de jure and de facto leader—now at 17 years and counting—comes to an end Operating on the assumption of a Putin victory in 2018 ” the author suspects “that a his early economic successes —like robust growth of 7 percent annually in 2000-2008—will be eclipsed by much weaker economic performance to come and b we will not see signi cant change for the better in Russia’s relations with the West ” “Two Russian Power Brokers Dueled Putin Stayed Out ” Leonid Bershidsky Bloomberg View 12 15 17 https www bloomberg com view articles 2017-12-15 two-russian-power-brokers-dueled-putin-stayedout The columnist argues that the trial of former Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev which ended in Moscow on Dec 15 “set the tone for Russian President Vladimir Putin's next term in power… Ulyukayev was found guilty of accepting a $2 million bribe from Igor Sechin the chief executive o cer of state-controlled oil major Rosneft This was in e ect a dispute between two powerful o cials of the kind Putin used to arbitrate quietly It's signi cant that he chose not to this time … The West still perceives Russia as a place where Putin makes all the decisions But Putin appears con dent that the system he built has su cient internal checks and balances to operate reliably in his interest regardless of which loyal group or individual wins a speci c dispute or undertakes a policy project … Putin is likely to demonstrate his power every once in a while just to keep them on their toes For now he's experimenting with hands-o leadership ” “Putin’s Russia Keeps Getting More Dangerous ” Sergey Aleksashenko The National Interest 12 17 17 http nationalinterest org feature putins-russia-keeps-getting-more-dangerous-23697 page show The author a former Russian nance o cial and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution writes that the arrest and trial of former Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev raises many questions none of them particularly attering for Putin’s Russia These include questions about holes in the prosecutors’ case and speculation about the true reasons for Ulyukayev’s punishment “Don’t Speak Memory How Russia Represses Its Past ” Nikita Petrov Foreign A airs 12 12 17 https www foreigna airs com articles russian-federation 2017-12-12 dont-speak-memory The author deputy director of the board of Memorial’s Center for Research and Education in Moscow writes “In 1987 … Mikhail Gorbachev … said that Stalin had committed ‘enormous and unforgivable’ crimes Today such a clear statement would be unthinkable In 2000 during his rst inauguration as president Putin set the new o cial tone declaring that ‘there have been both tragic and brilliant pages in our history ’ … In modern Russia with its deep-rooted tradition of authoritarianism the danger of returning to bad habits is real … the new popular Russian ideology … consists of a paternalistic conception of government paired with the glori cation of the past … A slave mentality remains deeply ingrained in Russian minds along with a latent monarchism and paternalism The general mood is summed up in a formulation long accepted in conservative circles ‘We don’t need a government that serves us we need a government that’s like a father even if that father is strict ’ … As long as Russia refuses to o cially acknowledge the darkness in its past it will be haunted by ideas that should have died long ago ” https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 10 12 1 10 2018 Russia Analytical Report Dec 11-18 2017 Russia Matters “It's an Unequal World It Doesn't Have to Be ” Eduardo Porter and Karl Russell New York Times 12 14 17 https www nytimes com interactive 2017 12 14 business world-inequality html The authors note that “among the more unequal regions of the world—the United States say or Russia—income disparities are reaching levels not before seen in modern history The bottom half of Americans captured only 3 percent of total growth since 1980 The income of the bottom half of Russians actually shrank ” Defense and aerospace “Russia's Military Is Leaner But Meaner ” Leonid Bershidsky Bloomberg 12 14 17 https www foreigna airs com articles russian-federation 2017-12-12 dont-speak-memory The author a columnist and veteran Russia watcher asks “How with a relatively small and decreasing military budget … is Russia is still a formidable military rival to the U S ” The two countries' well-balanced nuclear deterrents is enough of a reason to avoid direct confrontation And the author observes “Putin may well understand the nature of modern military challenges better than U S President Donald Trump and U S legislators—and Russia's authoritarian system may be more e cient when it comes to military allocations … Russia is now almost an equal to the U S as a power broker in the Middle East where the Russian military has just helped Syrian President Bashar alAssad e ectively win a civil war—in which the U S was helping the other side ” Security law-enforcement and justice No signi cant commentary http belfercenter ksg harvard edu © Russia Matters 2017 This project has been made possible with support from Carnegie Corporation of New York Republication Guidelines node 7406   https www russiamatters org news russia-analytical-report russia-analytical-report-dec-11-18-2017 Twitter https twitter com russia_matters 11 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