Aa5 Clbffe Pxoject ¹S199900f80 U S Department of State Deny Extcfse Release Dedssslfy In In Pull 2 SEPTEMBER 1970 Zxefnptfxxn fb bfEMORAND UM SUBJECT 1 AMBASSADOR'S RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR ANALYSIS OF MILITARY OPTION IN PRESENT CHILEAN SITUATION WE BELIEVE IT NOW CLEAR TH ILEAN MILITA Y WILL NOT RZPE B ING UNLIKE DEION OF NA SPREAD VIOLENCE ' ALL INFO AVAILABLE TO US INDICATES FO CES ' CHIEFS ARE tfNPREPARED GO BEYOND SEEKING MINIMAL GUARANTEES FROM ALLENDE WHICH IN THEIR VIEW WOULD PROTECT EXISTING RANK STRUCTURE AND PREVENT POLITICIZING OF MILITARY WE REGARD SUCH GUARANTEES AS VIRTUALLY WORTHLESS OVER THE LONG HAUL 2 MILITARY PEOPLE HAVE OUR OWN HAD FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CONTACTS WITH THEIR CHILEAN COLLEAGUES DURING LAST FZW DAYS THEY ARE UNANIMOUS IN REJECTING POSSIBILITY OF MEANINGFUL MILITARY INTERVENTION IN POLITICAL SITUATIOiN PRIOR TO OCTOBER 24 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION OF PRESIDENT THERE IS APPARENTLY SOME TALK AMONG SOME OFFICERS OF DOING SOMETHING AFTER THAT DATE IF ALLENDE IS ELECTED IN OUR JUDGEMENT SUCF iVfUTTERINGS ARE NOT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY 3 YOll WILL HAVE SEEN FRObf OUR RECENT REPORTING THAT THE ALESSANDRI-TO NEfV ELECTIONS-TO FREI FORMULA WE E T QUIRED„FVEW LIFE THE SCHEME MIGHT JUST POSSIBL W IF ENSE P DISINTEGRATING ECONOMIC SITUATION SPREADING FEAR AROUSED BY PREMATURE COMMUNIST MOVES ETC CQEEI „WHAT 3 BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE AN ALL-OUT EFFORT T SILRESMNMF1 $ 4 4KIJhTAHY IN THEIR CURRENT AND CUSTOMARY STATE OF FLABBY IRRESOLUTION THIS A E RT TO PLA 0 SCENARIO UNTIL THE FINAL ACT WHATEVER THE OUTCOhfE OF ANY CUSSION WITH ALLENDZ WHICH MAY TAKE PLACE FORESEE NO SIGNIEICANT SUSTAINED PRESSURE FRQht THAT Q3 FID zl OLOO95Z 38 Y I I%H h V d h G V rRZ W Uh I'J ' 3 I oN PJ C YZ IrhvZ To AccZPT FhcT 77rhT ' ' ThA J 1'A IV EHTAI31ISllittZNT hf1 JY JACJ s COHESION AND TTICA J 1'IJRPOSE I'I'H OiNLY IIZAL UNII'Yll'IG INSTINCT IS SURVTVJ ' So AS 7 '0 EN JOY MINOR PRIVI J FGZS CAIIS JIOUStiS 7 I Ns ON AND TtfE LIKE A ID 1 A77Lf -PAIIADE-CIIOUND AUDIENCE Ft ' ABH TN TIIZ hltil'IL'1 FOIICES 01 wrfh7' A MAIL%EST REGIMJ' YTI I hfFA11 7' tt TllF INHTITTJ'I'ION--AND Till Y Do E 1'SD'I'--CAN AltL 't'00 v BZ T IANOUZLXZED DY ALLZNDZ AVPEAI S TO 771ESE VETTV ST' NT 7NTZRFSTS AccoiwvhttI JJD BY TJIJ' Uor I OIY GUAIIANTT'Z 7'0 dtWnrCrr Wr UAVr BLDFER IZT JJT h r IDAIrtttZSS IVZ Mtte' I f J ' 'Ifh' ' M T TTARY hPZ AI„SO AFI' JC 't' I I Y NIGII'I'hfhBI' 0 C N IIJ OJT FBI N IN 7„' 1 ' JJYI 'J J '4 VI 'I'II I'Ot'Itf hlf ' PC 'l' BI I Alt 'l 11 I 1 N'iV I J I Ott UNA731 3 ' '0 CONSIDI'll IIOW Till'Y htJ lt' ' I'I'tl —1 hTt1't ' PC J To Ehs '- I I'-0 UNL 'S S 13AC 7CL1 If Y UN gU I A%i lb t'CNIU T olfALTY 'I'IIJ Y IVOUJD Sllltll t IA tON INIIANNC'A ON IIA IIG 'IO IIQtlN I 'IVII 1AN 11111 O'I'Ill IIN ' to ' f TJG tvrfhT TIIJ'Y sl h hs rlc p JJ3r t c 'v J tvh t ABMEI N A I Gttt A1II NiO DINOlttiINI'ANtl Atilt IIIN„NI'Ili I NCND iN 'I'ilNltl ---hthTTJ RS hs Jo hlhr E rhfvosS'I re III D 7JND ar Our ' JLJ at JT S h EJ I'I'ARY TLRY 'lt'I'lON INCI U7 ING Itl OII IIOUNDUI ol T l' F't ' I' JJ Af 7 1 SJ JJL h IL J AhfILIAlt 1YIJ' 7 IJT 0't'IIT'Il I h' 'JIT hht ft 1 Fhit cof 7 7 IIIES LN dJQ F JS' 'S CUB'L'A CONS'J'ITO'LJJ2IJAL r ' I I h TATJ'D VT TAT 'tih t'I' Tits 'I'0 ' 'i I t Ni Jt I LAY 1101VJ' VJ'R 0 V AVORABLY iltl J I'I'AI Y 0 'I'O TL'll 24-2u lr IYO 3 1 Jth VZ h „CFNAJITO IVERIG Tf QQPS 73 T ' fE 13ACKGI OU tD PltTT '713rr TF '1T h77TITT 7 Ehf 011DZR 1 N ShiN't'I AGO AN TO ENSI IU ' TIIA7' '7'l F CONSTTTUTTONAT VT I N 0 TflE CONGIIESS PBJ VAILED WOUI l t Nl CESSABY IT IS OUB JUI GET ENT TIIAT 2JIEI A A1N T'l Vfff 1 ZY To TilTS PRODLEiht TUE Co li UINDLRS CAN 13 '' 1' 7 f IPCN 7'1 77' 7'U 'o8rY irTH oitf FRS AND WF ' I' JINK JTJ'--T T Kfht v TJIAT Ift'' ' 1' OOJ S DE@7'JTJ' OhtLQ hlhRKIS'I' I' ''NJ 1'lth7'ION YII I 011T'V 7 '7 J' IT» S J' J'htS 'I'0 U D Ttl 'N ' 'IIAT 'I'IIE SUCCI ' v OID uUCtt Till ' WII N'I'FBl RISE IN„AJ T JTS ASIE 'TS httts'1 DJ' P 'ND Ott VILL AND SI ILI s--IQLII ONAI rUALJTTES ON f X J f1 7 I'QtCNJ COUN F J tYZ ChllNO'I' I J N it fat TI JAN ilfoD 1 S'7' AN 7' I' ll Tr t N' ''S I 'Tl IK EIZS 7 ' wtfnT AtthtEN' N' 7 H SAYIN 3 17 Trtrs cotr - 31001 7 f Assr'ss— OE'PORTTJNITJFS FOR r'URTlll R S GNTJA CANT U G wE hrIZ WTTII TIIE CRII L'AN I 70 V TJIFZ MAVJT ALR 'ADY I j AGAIN-'7' AI 7 'tlhT t IILT7'ARY A t ' NO17ZXJSTZir'1 ' 3JJJ'-V ND 7'OR ANY SEII TOT S i IOVI' ALL NDJ' AI6 VJ' CAN rtttttthGJ' To IU'PLNAT TIII' hlf ' SA 'E 'I I 'ttitt I' t 'hftCES SIIOUJ So DI 'TA'I'1' FAUX T113 IH Au ZAB tY t AN NTI Y 1C 1 AH NAJ37 V ttl 1 1 Tltl I J-' IS No GRot I' IAC'I'ION II ' ' 7 Ot B Bl FSH 0 - Q -' d Q OR INDIVIDUAL WITHIN THE ARMED FORCES AROUND WHOM A COUP EFFORT WITH ANY REAL CHANCE OF SUCCESS COULD BE ORGANIZED EVEN VIAUX IS REPORTEDLY SEEKING TO MEET ALLENDE WE REPEAT THAT OUR BEST INTELLIGENCE MAKES ' NOTHING WILL MOVE THE ARMED F Q1QLLXCEPT NE 'DEVELOP P LYP TS FOR THE TIME BEING IT 1E i FORE OUR INTE EF Qg THIS FIELD CLJ93RMAI CC5T S MORE COULD BE RISKY TO IT US ND HARMFUL 7 I TO THE ALTHOUGH FREI EFFORT SPECIF- THE I OREGOING DOES NOT RESPOND ICALLY TO HYPOTHETICAL QUESTIONS YOU PUT TO US WE 13ELIEVE THAT OUR ANALYSIS DOES ADEQUATELY COVER THE REALITIES IN P A TERMS OF 40 COMMITTEE DELIBERATIONS HOWEVE T LTERNAT V ' G W A ALSCY REA T-HB-PQLXZJ GAL DOSS-LB SO 15gjJ GLOAT GRRARID THESE OLITICAL ACT Y BE S TISFIED BY MAKING THE FOLLOWING POINTS A THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOOSE TALK AMONG RIGHTISTS AND CERTAIN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS CONCERNING THE BUYING OF RBY VOTES IN CONGRESS AT PRESENT THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN Nr A f fWILD SPECULATION j j-' I j j ' j TAINEDD MEANTIME ASSAQ B IN-CLOSE BUT-DISCREET TOUCH WITH II'HO PBOPLE ARE TRILuSIIITI'ING To AND FROM AROUND PREI ZY CilRE -i'NTDGIlyrAoM THAI CE IoHAS INIIUHNCR Duo MPLICIT EVIDENCE OP'USG SUPPORTI AAI BDOILAS ALSO U 6 UHTXCTS AND IMETHODS IN QIILET VERY CONEFFORT TO CREATE' PROPITI OUS ATMOSPHERE FOR iRIO HE I'lI BE REPO ING SEPARATELY ON THESE EAIBASEY MAINTAINING LOWEST POSSIBLE ING RA 'jA SCCE MOVE 9 COLLECTION ACTIVITIES ' L o' 8 SITUATION ERMIT INTELLIGENT IS STILL TOO FLUID AND UNCERTAIN TO ASSESSMENT OF PROSPECTS FOR El FECTIVE WL' WILL HOWEVER BE COVERT ACTION UNDER ALLENDE WORKING ON IDENTIFYING POSSIBILITIES AND WILL REPORT AS SOON AS REALISTIC RECOMMENDATIONS CAN BE MADE This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu Read related article ‘Extreme Option Overthrow Allende’ 2020-09-15