' ' 7 Growbig Radlca atlon In the Ukraine The Ukrainian leadership under pressure from nationalist sentiment and the popular movement Rukh has mounted a growing challenge to the central govepugent's authority in the past six months The Ukraine's radi l sovereignty declaration of 16 July going beyond that of Russia and most other republics asserts the right to a separate army and currency and an independent foreign policy The legislature recently amended its constitution to assert the supremacy of republic law over union law and is drafting legislation to ensure the ent of Ukrainian conscripts only · on republic territory r______ · t The republic legislature still retains a communist majority but -t j e nationalist opposition nearly a third of the deputies has been gaining influence Leonid Kravchuk Chairman of the republic's Supreme Soviet and new Prime Minister Fokin have sought to partially accommodate Rukh but want to retain power themselves and avoid steps that might provoke Moscow to i tervene Forced by p$lic demonstrations and pressure from the legislative opposition the legislature removed Fokin's more traditionalist predecessor in October and has begun to implement the republic's sovereignty declaration through independent foreign policy moves and drafting of a new constitution Legislative activity however is often paralyzed by rancorous debate between the communist majority and the opposition The majority has recently taken steps to curb e opposition's ability o18 3plo7k legislation and to restrict demonstrations h ' Serious differences among republic leaders and the population over how far and how fast to push the challenge to Moscow will complicate agreement on the ine's future and ensure political contlict in the months ahead Rukh and its supporters who advocate· come lete independence are concentrated in the Western Ukraine ··· support for independence s growliig el sewhere parti cularly in iev Kravchuk Fokin and most Communist deputies support continued membership in a less centralized union where the repub-1ic•s s er tgpty s gua teed For now the majority of tl ie populati -- pecially in the south and east where over 11 million Russians ive--apparently favors continueg • participation in a decentralized union I a • MSJ J t DECLASSIFIED IN PART PER E O 13526 B 0Ctl- O'f6l MR SC5 G 5 1 earn 1nr tff'tAL From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive -· The Ukraine is not likely to sign Gorbachev's union treaty draft in its present form because it retains an integrated federal structure and a strong central government In response to puJ lic pressure the legislature promised to forego signing of the union treaty at a minimum until a new republic constitution based on the sovereignty declaration is passed probably in a year 1 s time The Gorbac hev regime may well prove unwilling to present a compromise treaty draft acceptable to the increasingly autonomous Ukraine opening up the possibility that the Ukraine could gain de facto independence in the absence of an agreement with the center even if sur port for a formal declaration does not increase f lffl r 15 sJ _ _ t From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive Implementation of Fokin 1 s economic reform plan and the repu lic's July declaration on economic independence will put the republic in direct conflict with the central government over the issues of· resource contra and foreign economic • policy Moreover Fokin has announced plans to introduce a republic currency in 1991 which along with market reform will likely weaken the central government 1 s administrative control over the republic 1 s economy The Okraine has recently signed interrepublic trade agreements with eight other Soviet republics including the RSFSR and introduced a form of rationing that attempts to protect Ukrainian residents from consumer shorta 8s as the centrally directed command economy collapses L Jtn m I ·