18 all • - - • '4 1 SDI ll • -1• · SC LEG tSU 'l'iYE 1o·t · tg ' HARVARD UNIVERSITY -h - - - 1 i 3 - y JOHN F DY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT G-v- cSlf-P 79 oKN B u STW T CAM 111DC£ MAs 5Ac usrin 0113g Plm urD ZEumw Assistant Professor of Public Policy 61 496-6891 FAx 1 6171 495-5776 MEMORANDUM T o Graham Alli sonr Robert Blackwill Al Carnesal e Ash Carter Bill Hogan From Philip Zelikow Subject Harvard Discussion with Kravcbuk on Nuclear Weapons Date September 30 1991 f l --- I thought you would be interested in the details of a conversation with Ukrainian President Kravchuk on his republic's plans for nuclear weapons The conversation took place on Friday morning September 27 at the Ukrainian Research Institute The conversation was part of the discussion led by Bill Hogan with Shirley Williams which was described by Clifford Krauss in today's New York Times At Bill's invitation I asked President Kravchuk to help me understand some tro u bling inconsistencies which had emerged in his republic's public position on nuclear weapons First Ukraine intends to become nuclear-free and sign the NPT but Kravchuk says i t will take an indefinite number years to achieve this goal He later reportedly mentioned a timeframe of seven years while in Chicago I of Secondr Ukraine says it supports central control of nu ar forces but a adds that Ukraine must participate in the mechanism ot central control and b adds that Ukraine will on its own ffectively and rel iably control the possible use of any nuclear weapons actually located in the republic Third Ukraine's hopes for participation in the mechanism of central control rely on retention of Union military structures but Kravchuk also said the armed forces cf independent Ukraine will be entirely independent a development which will quickly put the future of Union military structures in doubt So I asked could Kravchuk clear up this confusion by stating that he unconditionally supports the elimination of nuclear WP-apons by the fastest possible meansr whether i t is remova1 to Russia or Or if the future of nucle weapons in the Ukraine is linked to certain political developments· destruction on Ukrainian territory · fl--- ' 1-- 4 f- 1 - -- flhoto copy Preservatio - - - - ·- - -- ·-- -- - From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive •· '0 617 496 8779 t _ J _ fa 1 0 01 91 i 1-61 7 4 96 18 36 an s SDI U _ could KravchUk describ these linkages and open the way to a frankly political negotiation In a lengthy reply Kravchuk made the following pqints His governme t•s new ministry of defense was considering the nature of Ukrainian armed forces •in light of sufficiency and was beginning discussions about this with the center There would need t o be s6l le agreement on a transition between the Union minis tey · of' defense and the republics An agreement devolving control over border ards had already · been signed Work on the difficult problems including the division ah coordi1 1ation of authority with Moscow was only beginning But key political decisions had been made It might be useful for me to join them in working out these problems Kravchuk then approached me after the meeting ended and said he hoped to see me in Kiev His deputy foreign minister Oudovenko longtim party hack and Ukrainian permre_p to the UN then gave me information on how to contact him in New York to arrange a possibie meeting with the Ukrainian fore1gn minister Id not intend to pursue this matter on my own But we can use this invitation whatever motivated it as a use f 11 opening to help get money for the idea which Bill lias ruentione i o me ot sending a group frolll Harvard to Kiev of feri 0 _ ' ' ne expertise on the varied security issues Ukraine faces The 1 i _ r ·issue for example has a critical technical dimension · • 1 - is also likely to be linked to broader Ukrainian po1itica1 c c such as the crilnea and Donbas concrete resource issu s to be negotiated with the Union defense ministry and expectations for the future of European security The group would need to me - with a variety of people extending beyond K ravchuk and his circl · hose ·f uture is uncertain 'I fr i '- r J -- From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive Be wanted participation in the mechanism for central control of nuclear weapons along the lines worked out between Yeltsin and Gorbachev Nazarbayev Kazakh president had the s e view · President Bush's initiative will help by offering a coherent framework to energize republics in looking at their nuclear weaporis 'inventories especially the non-strategic nuclear forces located on their territory which in Ukraine includes a variety of weapons including those stocked for the Black Sea fleet • My understanding is that the US government for good reason is not ye able to nitiate a sUbstantive dialogue with the Okraini n government n nuclear weapons or other security issues Harvar i is not sil lilarly constrained oto Copy Preservatkm t • •• • • rt • _ _ i i --- -· - 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