f 6 B255 NATIONAL SE URITY COUNCIL WASHINGT N D C 20506 8 1991 INFORMATION MEMORANDUM FOR BRENT ED A SUBJECT Ukrainian pproa t h t o Defense Matters Phillip Zelikow stopped by t oda to debrief me and John Gordon on a fo od one- half hour meeting he had in Geneva last weekend ey a to say was in many ways mu we hear in random statements fr om p o litica thought it important that you have a s ummary of the onversati on as grist for your ml l as we appr oach the issue o•er the next few weeks of how t o deal with republ ics r J b K1 _ r 0 g - Both struck Philip as serious esponsible people trying to get someching done rather than si ly t o make a point And b oth are concerned that the Wesc misunde stands what Ukraine is about in pare because Ukrainian offi c ia l have spoken rather l oosely on these matt ers Here are the key points The Ukra i nians have AUt t oget her a five-year plan for defense at the end d f which they intend to be a nuclear-free state w t h a conventional force of possibly 300 - 320 t ho4sand me n Higher figures the y say were neve r unde ser iou s c onsideration In Phase 1 o f he pl n during 1 991-92 they would move quite slowly on many matters They would i mme i at e ly sign the NPT and agree t o IAEA safeguards on existing nuclear weap ons f or as long as such we p ons are in Ukraine sr e3ra Dec lassify on OADR DECLASSIFIED IN PART PER E O 12958 f O DO- I I q f F- 'J Zb too1 fiJ 0 'O ' From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive FROM 2 ·- ELBciT Draf t legis latio gove rning Ukra inian arme d for force s and the 9rov ision of socia l guar antee s demo bilize d sold ers Take over the bo der guard s railr oad troop s KGB and MVD alre ady accom plish ed are Becom e fully inf rmed on what nucl ear weap ons they what had dy now in Ukra ine hey have alrea regar d as good d scus sions with the SRF comm ander d not Poss ibly of grea ter i porta nce is what they woul do e r expe ct in this hase s Nor would they s ek to force Mosco w to cut force CFE r unde cuts me altho ugh they wo ·ld welco They would respe t the cent er's righ t to cont rol say and move at will nucl ear weap ons inde ed they such move ments a e alrea dy occu rring They are askin g to that oper atin weap ons locat ed here is for ave dome s tic cons tit In Phas e 2 the proc ess o f creat in g They wo uld seek a dmin istra ti on o Ukra ine but wou oper ati onal con-c hand s o f the cen Mo s cow co c u-c ch or a proc edur al veto sim ilar in NATO over the use of nucl ear n thei r terri tory All they ask o that is cred ible for thei r ency from 1992 -1995 they woul d begin cont rol of exis ting force s and force s o nego tiate a takeo ver of the c he three mili tary dist ricts in d not seek to take over o l whic h would rema in in the They would also urge upon er size o f these force s They wo uld make o effo rt to take over the Black in Sea Fleet They know there is a probl em here but ons weap ear nucl lves invo part becau se thi well als o becau se the Black Sea invo lves Russ ia as t migh as Ukra ine The are t hink ing now that it that over be best t o nego t'ate colle ctive cont rol flee t they In Phas e 3 which would g o from 1995 sic -199 6 on s force armed of ver wo uld comp lete a t o t 1 takeo have thei r terri tory The estim ate that now they for an hope they and soil inian Uk 90 0 0 00 tro ops o n the a r my a third that si e Phil lip did not have cost of the ated estim ally actu ad they impre ss i o n that Se GRE' f From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive mo attem pt to acqu ire cont rol of They would make conv entio nal millt ary unit s Mosco w woul d keep cont rol of t hose i unit s are very worr ied abou t the such an army but finan c ial aspe cts of heir probl em They are also ploye d c oncer ned that they w' ll end up with 600 0 00 unem who s inian Ukra or stay who s oldie rs eith er thos retur n f r om duty else here and They have had good ne otiat ions with the cent er be to seem kov with Russ ia Rela tio s with Shap oshni old an as see they who g ood t h e y do not tru t Lob ov and v Silae with well think er They get al ng very In thei r ne o tiati ons they are findi ng Kobe ts In symp athiz ers a t all 1 vels and some oppo nents ns on ticia poli the is oblem pr st bigg their view the all sides who are gi en to over -sim plify and some times over- dram atize the issue s I this They hope for an int r-rep ublic an summ it some time of n notio the s bles d year in which Go rbac ev woul have repu bli c an-ba sed arm d f o rces and they think they it summ a a g o od chanc e at sue Phi l lip's meet ing was i n advan Ash Cart er Bill Hogan Zelik o Dece mber t o di scus s a b r oad ra The Ukra inian s are e age r f o r s themselve s and those who wor k man y issu es the y now f a ce cc John Go rdon Davi d Gomp ert SEQR r e of a Harv ard g roup Blac kwill which will be visit ing Kiev in ge of natio nal s ecur ity issue s ch a visi t as a way to educa t e ith them o n the nuan ces of the From the Nunn-Lugar collection of the National Security Archive nucl ear They e mp h a sized that hey would like to see all soon as as out s weapo ns o ut by 199 6 nd tac tica l nuke said p o s s ibl e In respo nse to a direc t quest ion they ons weap ear nucl if tion tha t t he y would raise n o o bjec now t righ ern conc r Thei were simp l y move d t o ussia of is that the seven -yea peri od of impl emen tatio n START see to er pref would y the ng o START i s way t oo l limi t s reach ed in fou year s