C05453691 ---------------------- b 3 ____ · · b S EO 12958 3 S c ·•-· • t 17 July 1992 • - '• v _ l - MEMOiUWOUM FOR Nat ionaL Foreign Intelligence Board FROM Directer of Central Intelligence SUBJECT Warning - -· t' j J -- ·ot ·- - - - l · J have reviewed the report of the 'l'ask· Force on Imp tlng nit elligence Warning and believe that the·Task Force has done· - e - _ Intelligence community an important service both in highligh ing t he deficiencies in the present ·warning system and• also in ·making proposals for a new and invigorated approach to this problem ' tJ ie Task Force · - 2 In keeping with the report of but al drawing on a number of the· very useful comments that have beeri provided from throµghout the Community I have decided- he following · · · a_-1 First appropos· of both the Task Force report and number of comment s warning needs to be futher defined· in order to make t he sys·tem work and be responsive Warping is not the same ·as the entire universe of contemporacy · ·- • · intelligence The term •warning • as_ it appl ies to · · intelligence means to sound an alarm to give notice b give admonishing advice to Policymakers I t connotes · urgency and implies the potential need for policy action in response It is a different intelligence function than simply informing poli ers or enhancing their understanding of n issue development For the _-7 purposes of this decision memorandum warning would · ' ··· include identifying or forecasting events that _could cause the engagement of us militm y forces from the scale of embassy evacuations to larger milit ary ·· activities and of event that would have a sudden delete ious effect on us foreign policy and security· e g coups third party wars refugee surges and so forth The National Intelligence Warning functio · should be limited to pcssible developm ts no more than six months in the future • ·· or In keeping wit h Recommendation l of the Task Force repart I explicitly endo rse a ·comprehensive stratem 1for th Community including improved Community-wide support co the DCI in this conneccion improved accountaQility for warning incelligence efforts through the clear assignment of responsibilities and periodic perfornl9 nce • PPROVED FOR RELEASEL DATE 25-April-2012 • I - • I '------- 1900008 1 C05453691 · - SUBJECT Warning evaluations establ ishmerit of an integrated analytical program for·warning intelligence production combining both line units and elements dedicated· to warning assess ent s ·the snaring of Community-wide alternative warning assessments and improved quality·of intelligence warning analysis through sustained training of anal ysts augmented by methodology research · The NIO for warning NIO W will continue to serve as my and the community•s principal advisor on warning This individual will be the principal substantive advisor on warning issues to the DCI and to ·the NFIB and will provide advice to each of the NFIP components on their respective roles and postures for supporting the National Intelligence Warning- System The duties of this officer will include Assure that the DCI is provided intelligence warning in a timely Nnrier that is relevant to senior·policymakers• interests and to national level pol cy issues The NIO W's pri ary responsibility in this sphere is• -t o ensure hat a process is in place that supports the DCI with warning assessments on a community-wide basis a· process that results ii assessments·tbat ar full-ranged regarding all reasonably possible scenarios ·assessments tha are -either prepared by or under the NIOs • · direction or that include cheir views and that allow the NIO W to add his or her personal assessment when the NIO W judges Che Community product to be· incomplete or even misleading · 1 •· Xnfluence warning-related incelligence collection both inf rmally and through the National Intelligen e ollection Board - Assure -that timely intelligence warnings are ·disseminated to consumers in a progressive fashion keyed to the pace of a developing situation · r· - Provide guidance to warni g elements of Community components to ensure that all their efforts are mutually complementary inclusive of the needs of all priority consumers and responsive to the strac egic objectives· cited above · C05453691 I SUBJECT Warning Monitor the 'Operations of these Conum uu ty col'ilPonent warniµg elements within the context of their participation in the National I telligence Warning System particularly with respect to sharing new and alternative warning assessmex1ts and suppcrting the preparation of national warning products - Advise the NF tP princ pals and the directors of their components on their operational roles training programs and overall posture for supporting-the National warning System - Coordinate closely with the designated warning elem ts of the Intel li gence community • _ - Report periodically to the DCI e NF tC and other concerned departments on the community's performance with-respect to intelligence warning · as well as on future warning int elligence requirements · · I am not persuaded that'it• is necessaxy a this point to create another Vice Chairman ·of the Natlonal Intelligence Council to can y out the warning function I intend to give the NIO W the authority necessary to carry out the responsibilities described above If that provesinsufficient then changes in -status can always be made ·Eacb major NFIP component hould establish or designate an element whose mission is to act as the focal point for warning wit in that organization and to work with its counterparts in other organizations that collectively constitute the National Intelligence warning· stem · These elements will constitute the Warning Comm t w- and will remain under the operat ional-con rol and-mana ment of their parent organizations but shoul be responsiv to the general guidance provided by t he Nl O W These organizations sh uld Perform and monitor investigative intelligence ai ialyses directed at identifying and or· tracking POtencial warning concerns in respons to guidance provided by among othet s · the NIO W 3 C05453691 • SUBJECT Warning - Make internal line units aware of the dynamic warning interests of consumers in order to· better posture these units for initiating warning assessments that are timely and relevant to consumer interests · Act as the organization in question's agent for sharing new and alt ative warning assessments and related ti Ille sensitive intelligence with all counterparts in the j nteragency warning intelligence network and' wit h the NIO W - Ensure that tailored collection requirements are initiated and encompass all·reasonably possible cenarios hat could·generate high threa warnings · _ Support the preparation of national warning products by directly participating in their production or by supporting other elements within their organization in their preparation of such products Facilitate-the escablishment of warning • · intelligence training programs and the · development and apP ropriate use_ of··wa rning intelligence methodologies within their organization As suggested by the Task Force there should be the following additional structural changes- to the -current operation of he National Intelligence Warning System All major Community components should adopt or reinstitute the practice of designating an officer-presumably the director of its warning element--with specific responsibilities ''for supporting the Natfonal rntell igenc Warning system The National warning i'$taff should be transferred to·the NIO W as enhanced-support staff The duties of individual ·members of this staff hould be defined a complementary fashion so that the NIO W is assisted by functionai experts in his or her many responsibilities 'l'his staff will be co-locate¢ with the NIO W in 3 An essential change in the warning sysc em is that it· not exist in isolation trom and parallel to the remainder of the · analyt ical and colle tion community_ It is also imperative that - _______________ _ -------------- -__ _ C05453691 SUBJECT Warning the warning system trigger actions by the rest of the Community with respect to both analysis nd collection There must be a mechanism for vetting warning in such a way as to avoid a signi f ic ant number of false· alarms and at the same ·time erisure that its warnings cannot simply be brushed aside either within the· Intelligence Community or the policy community Accordingly Warning reports may be initiated either ·by the NIO W or1 through him by any warning element of the Intelligence Community • Warning reports g owing out of the National IntelligenceWarning System will be sent in the first instance to the DCI and principals of the Natio nal Foreign Intelligence Board Mechanisms should be created to ensu e-that such· reporcs are delivered directly to the NFIB prin ipals within the minimum possible amount of time for example one to two hours after their completion ·upon receipt of the warning report NFIB agencies will provide to the NIO W a written reaction to the warning report according to a schedule established by the NIO W depending on the urgency of the matter Simultaneously the Community Management Staff Deputy for Requirements a -d Evaluation will provide a repor-t -to the· N Io -- w --o- n - -c e-----l--------1 status of collection relating to the subject of i he warning repor · - The NIO W will summarize these materials and forward the reactions as well for the-DCI Depending on the urgency ·of the matter the DCI or the DDCI in his absence may · authorize the dissemination of the warning report to the poli ¥ cc mmunity · The DCI will then decide whether to commission a National Intelligence Estimate on the issue The warn ng NtE would addr ess a single_warning issue and would be the - produce of the NIO W in·coordination with the appropriate· NIO or NIOs and members of·che analytic communities Authorization of dissemination of a warning report to the policy community or the commissioning of a warning NIE will include direction to intensify colle cion·activities on the subject at- hand warning-related collection management will be enhance and focused by the appropriate intelligence agencies The NIO W will monito these collection enhancements s C05453691 ··· SUBJEC1' Warning With dissemination of a Warning Report or Warning·· Estimate the National Intelligence Collection Board will meet to decide on steps for enhancing focus d collection on the warning subject Following the issuance of a warning NIE the NIO W may with the approval of DCI OJ ' DDCI issue a ·National Intelligenc Warning Spe t Report to keep pace with and identify warning situations Every six months the vice Chairman of the National Intelligence council for EValuation will examine the production of the National Warning Sys em and report to the DCI and NFIB on the performance of the system and experience during the prec d ng period 4 •watch Report• meeting henceforth will be w th other rtici nts remaining unchanged ------ - - - - - - ----- - -_- - -_-_- --_-_-_- -_-_-_-_-_- -_-_- -_-_-_-_-_-_-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5 • It i important in the·warn ng proce$s that regional mos and the line analytical elements of the Intelligence community be involved at a m nimum in dialogue by the NIO W co ensure that· ·· the DCI is advised not only·of the views of the NIO W but those of the line analycic componencs as well __J 6- The Jneasures ·I have described above should be implemented immediately The Chairman of the National Intelligence coun il will prqvide a report to the OCI and NFIB principals in 90 days on· ehe establishment of the·new National warning system together · with recommendations for further refinement and adjustments to improve performance · ' ' • Q - - _· b - $e ' 6 • - CQ 545 691 - · · • • - D l 's ti r ib u t io n_ t o a l l a9d dr e s se 'ei s lL__ _ _ _ _ _ - 1 I I SE T I · · CQ5 45 691 • • •r ' • I I