l ­ 1 Ml1XAKJI CEPrEEBWI qYBCTBY 3aThCR no ce6R 06R3aHHWM nOBo B BHAY KaK H epHoro Mor a 6H ap eHTH TaK e npo6 eMM oKa TcR TaK H B03MO O nO e3HHMH B cRyu ae Barnero rronyqHTbCH Barna SaITHCKa B A HKoB eB 1986 ro a O HHH rrO HT6 po u w aB CTa pa3 BMCKa­ MopaTopHR HMeH BHemHenO HTHqeCKHe BHyTpeHHHe acneKTH HeKoTopHe e e o MOpaTOpHH CCCP Ha gnepHHe BSpHBH 6 aBrycTa 1986 r HCTeRaeT CpOR COBeTCRoro O HOCTopoHHero MopaTopKff Ha epHHe B3pHBH illaHCOB Ha TO qTO B OCT eeCR BpeMff COe HHeHH@e illTaTH rrOCne T rrpHMepy CCCP rrpaRTHqeCKH HeT 06 K­ THEHO CnO BmeeCR rrOnO eHHe CTaBHT Hac rrepe B 60pOM BHcTyrraTb nH C 3aRBneHHeM 0 HO npeKp eHHH pa3 rrpH BeCbMa CR R HeMY BHCOKO e rrpo nHTb ero B oqepe ­ BepORTHOCTH Toro qTO CllA BHOBb OTKaEyT­ rrpHcoe HHHTbCH I1pe cTaBnReTCR Qenecoo6pa3HbIM He KaCaRCb tPoPMbI BhIpa1KeHMR Ha­ mea rro3 HQHH paCCMOTpeTb sy BOSMo oro rrpo eHH ff O ro a I MopaTopHR KnH npe e HeKOTop e rrOnHTHqeCRHe MopaTopHff Ha HOB co06pa eHKff CpOK B rronb­ rrpo on TenhHOCTbID Bcero B03HHKaeT BOrrpOC He 06eCQeHHTCR nH Harna KHHQMaTHBa B cnyqae O HOCTopOHHero ee rrponOHrapOBaHHR B pa3 He CTaHeT HH OHa BOCnpKHHMaTbCH KaR o oe qeTBepT MnH RaR npOHBne­ HHe cna60CTH COBeTCKoro COIOsa MMeID HeCR aHHHe CB eTenbCTBYIDT OKa3HBaeT BospaCT ee 06 eCTBeHHOCTH n03HTHBHoe COBeTCKHa MopaTopMa B03 eaCTBHe Ha HaCTpoeHHR illHpOROa nOnHTHQeCKHe KpyrH Ha 3an e H BO BceM MHpe HeCOM­ HeHHO TaK1Ke H TO qTO H3 Bcex CCCP sa nOCne IJ IU1M ro rro HHX H 06 BoopY1KeHH CaMOa BTIeqaTH e Tpy HHH 06 eKT HR npe n01lteHHa 3arrpe eHmo Ham OHa KpHTHKH H H H O HOCTOPOHHIDC HH HaTHB COKp eHmo MopaTopH 0 03HaqHO 6emHo 06 eCTBeHHOCTH rOHRM o Ha epHHe KOCMJ IqeCKIDC n n ep­ B3pHBH OKasanCH TIOHHTHO Mepo nR mHpOKO rrpe CTaBnReT ROHTP OBO OB co6o o HoBpeMeHHo H sapy­ C CO CTOpOHH npHBep1KeHQeB Boopy eHH rro BnHRHHeM COBeTCKoro MopaTopHH B CiliA yCRnHBaeTCR orrn03 Kff MHnHTapHcTcKOMy Kypcy HHCTPaQHH PearaHa CornacHo p onpocoB 2 06 eCTBeHHoro MHeH H BeCHO 1986 r 42% orrpoweHH@X BHcTynanH sa npeRp eHHe epHHX HCllHTaH 56% MeHHeTcH a neTOM HX nOSKqKff ROHrpecca B npomnoM Bec YAenb ro B nanaTe npeA­ Bcero HeCKonbKO ronOCOB nonyqHna nonpaBKa CTaB Tene rrpaBHTenbcTBo CiliA 06DHBHTb H Boso6HOBHTb MopaTopH y e OCTHr npHSHB aH 0 neperoBop nonHOM sarrpeIl eHHH H J epFWX HCrIhIT8 I Uif1 a B IDIOM cJIyqae H3b1MaIOII aH aCCHrHOBaHHH Ha me npOBeAeHHe B HIDHe TeKyIl ero rOAa sa Hee npo­ maE qaCTb 150 KOHrpeCCMeHOB OTy y e ronOCOBanH HaH6onb­ KpyroB aR eMHqeCRHX ilonOMMTenbHoe nOSH HID pa3 enReT nOn THqeCKOe BosAef1 cTBHe MopaTopHH BHXOAHT a­ neRO sa npeAenht CIlIA 3a sarrperqeHHe H D epHblX HCIIbITaHHf1 BHcTynaIOT onnos HoHHHe 6PHTaH H cO Han- eMORpaTHqeCRHe pr o eHHBaIOT a7Ke lJpHHH npHHHn H pa6oq e napTHH B BenHKo­ IWyrmc CTpaHax STy z n elO B npHH ne HTaJIH npaBHTenbCTBeHHbIe KpyrH 'Ppr pe30JIlO mo OCY aIOOJYlO nonO HTenbHO napnaMeHT MepHbIe HCIThITaHHH EMeCTe C TeM eCTb OCHOBaHHH npeAnonaraTb qTO BH3BaHHOe COBeTcRof1 MHH H BMOCb Mepof1 O HOCTopOHHea BnnoTb OH HK06H HBnReTCH nHIDb C MaE SToro KpaTKOCp0qHO naysbI Mew ro a e e He OCTHrno BYM ff rrporraraHAHcTcKof1 cepIDThm H epHL1X axTOPOM 60Pb6ht B CiliA B TaKHX yCJIOBHH X Boso6HoBneHHe nOCJIe 6 aBrycTa no Bce BepoHTHoCTH B Bano CKHX rpynn poBoK COBeTCRHX MJ1pHblX KOTOphte nocTapaIOTcH IDUf MaTHB ITo HCTIHTaH 6ht cn cKpe HT poBaTb cy ecTBY no MopaTOpv BHYTpHnOnHTHQeCKof1 B CllA H pyrMX CTpaHax ROHTpHacTyrrneHHe BMMeHHH aK ef1 HCIThtTaIU@ H JIID11b nocne TpeTbero npoJIOHrHpOBaHHR Ham Haqan CTaHOBHTbCH Bce 60JIee omyTHMHM Horo cBoef1 Kynb­ anpenH 1986 r 6yp a3Ho TIponar e B CllA y a­ CaM q aKT MopaTopKff c03AaBaTb BneqaTneH e qTO O SaMa JI aTb YTM S H BH eH e Kpymrne B CCCP aHTHHAepMM Tap cT­ BeCb ROMTIneRC nonHTmeCR e yCHJIKff 3 CCCP Kan Tan oopoR BOn C epmaHHOCT Bno eHHHa B ro MOpaTOpliH OKaSanMCb 6H B 3HaqMTenbHO Mepe ocna6neHH BoSMOMHOCTb rrpO eHMfl MOpaTOpKff C Hame CTOpOHH MO eT OHTb paCCMOTpeHa M C yqeTOM npe CTO HX BHOOpOB B KOHrpeCC B Honope 1986 r pesynbTaToM KOTOpHX KaK O aDT CTaHeT YCKn e nHoepanb­ HO Ii YMepeHHo-KoHcepBaTMBHo rpyrrngpoBoK BecHo 1987 r B xo e oocy eH H KOHrpeCCOM oID eToB M MCTepCTBa OOOPOHH M MHHMCTepCTBa aTOMHO SHeprHH Ha 1988 HHaHCOB ro Mo eT nonyq Tb HeOOXO HMoe oonbillHHcTBO rOROCOB nonpaBRa HSHM aH aCCHrHOBaHHH Ha rrpo o e­ Hlie epHHX MCITHTaHH H peKOMe ID aR npes eHTY TIpe CTaBHTb Ha paTH HK HID KOHrpecca oroBopH r an B0300HOBMTb neperoBopH C 1974 M CCCP 1976 r r a TaK e rrpe a­ a DORHOM sanpe eHHM R epHHX HCIThITaHHtt e ecnM OH MCTP HH y anocb SaOROKHpOBaTb rrpHHRTMe HaSBaHHOn nonpaBKH aTO COS aHO 6R npe noc KH RR e e oORbme aKTMBH3 MH aHTHMKnHTapHCTcKO OTIn03 HM H 060cTpeHKff BHyTpHnonH­ THqeCKO OOpbOH B CllA oceHbID 1987 r TaKoe pasB THe C06HTHtt CaMO no ceoe HBKnOCb 6H KpynHo n06e oa Hame HTIROMaTHH Era nOSHTHB­ H stMeKT He Orp81UrtIHB8JICR OR JImnb paMKaMYI Bonpoca Jf epHHX HcnbI­ TaHID KaK H CpOKOM npaBJIeHIDI HblHeIllHeA' HCTpa H EeJIH COBeTCKO-aMep KaHCKaH BCTpeqa Ha BbIcmeM ypoBHe COCTOHTCR ­ TO STO e e O KH cy ecTBe AOBO B nOJIbSY npO JIeHHH MOpaTOpY naCRe 6 aBrycTa Henocpe cTBeHHo 1986 r Tor a B xo e BHSHTa B CllA MO O ObIJIO ObI oopaTHThcH K aMepHRaHCKOMY Hapo C pa3DffCHeHHeM KTOB a COBeTCKOM MopaTopHH nO HHHOM CO epmaHHH HaillHX npe JIo e­ HMa a npeKp eHHH epHHX HCITHTaHH H yCTaHoBneHMH aneKO HX Mep KOHTpOJIR aTO MOrJIO OH CTaTb rJIaBHbIM K03HpeM CTBeHHO Ha neperoBopax rJIaB rocy apcTB CCCP M HenocpeA­ 4 ITepBHe upH3HaKH 6eCnOKO CTBa PYKOBO CTBa CllA o ero nOJIHTHtleCROe paCT ee B O BHeHHK BliYTpK CTpaHbl a BJIeHHe aMepHKaHCKOrO HHTepeCa K eHHeM oroBopoB if H3BHe npOSlBMJIHCb rrp06 eMe KOHTPO R H C06 D­ 1974 H 1976 r r tIeMy noc eHa BCTpeqa 3KcnepToB B KeHeBe B qaCTHOCTH KpyrIHLItt BHyTpHnOJIHTHtIeCKHa aqxpeKT KMe o B ClllA cor ameHHe 14e npHpo 3 Te AH CCCP H aMepHRaHCKHM KOMHTeTOM no pecypcoB 06 yCTaHOBKe ce CMHqeCKKX npH60pOB R Kana6poBKH reOROraqeCKKX CTPYRTyp B Ka3axcTaHe H HeB e C03 aHHe onO HHTenb­ HHX cT A TaKOrO THna YBe ol4JIeHHH 06 HCIThITamurx H36HpaTeRbHble miCneK H Ha MecTax yCTpoi1 cTBa VIR KOHTpOR fI H nOpOrOBhIMH orpa­ HNlqeffiUIMH HCnHTaHHA THna KOPIEKC zu yrHe MepH aHaJIOrHtllioro xa­ paKTepa - B npe eRax onycTKMOrO H nORKTHqeCROa qHH emA e eC006pa3HOCTH no coo6pazeHHHM - KpaaHe ca6oTHpOBaHHe neperOBopOB HTHtIeCRHe H e e Hame 3aTp KnH 6H 6e30naCHOCTK HHCTpa­ 60Ree yCH JIHBaHH 6H HamH no­ nponar CTCKHe n03H H M011tHO o aTb tITO B D MliHHCTP CUIA 6y eT B STOM c nyqae CTapaTbC fI OCRa6HTb HaMKM 3a CqeT qaCTHqHHX yCTynOK aRK B OCTH yCTynOR npe CTB BJIeHHe Ha paTH41HK oroBopoB 1974 H 1976 rr B0306HOBneHHe TpexcTopoHHHX neperoBopoB 06c eHHe eRBaTH@X Mep KOHTpOA fI tIaCTHQHHe marH no OrpaHHqeHHm HCITHTaHHa H up -- 2 ITPH pemeHHH Bonpoca 0 rrpoRoHrHpoBaHHH MopaTopKfi 6oRbmoe 3HaqeHHe eCTeCTBeHHO HMeIOT BoeHHo-cTpaTerHtieCKHe H BoeHHO-TeXHH­ tIeCKHe c006paJlteHIDI IVIHTeJIbHOe coxpaHeHHe O OcTopoHHeA naY3H B epHHX CKoro 3 eCb B3pHBax B npHHqKne cnoc06HO onep eHH fI OR eT B Pa3BHT H C03 aTb TeXHOJIOrHH B03MOXHOCTb aMepKKaH­ fI epH@X 6oerrpHnacoB rJIaBHOe RH 3aMeTHOe BHKHHHe Ha COOTHomeHHe cTpaTerHqeCKKX nOTe aJIOB CTOpOH npOROHrHpOBaHHe OAHOCTopoHHero MOpaTOpRH CCCP e Ha nonro a HnH axe Ha ro 5 rrpe CTaB fleTCfl O cymecTByro ee 5-6% cTpaTerHqeCKHX C pOM Bcero e CTB paBHOBeCHe CHR rrpH KOTO­ CTOpOH crrOCOOHH rrpHq HHTb yr yry HerrpHeMReMN ymep6 06 a aeT OORbillHM sarraCOM rrpOq- HOCTH OHO HhlM HeqyBcTBHTe bHO 1I1 vlCrrpOrrOp MflM K qaCTHHM KORHqeCTBeHHHM H KaqeCTBeH­ B TOM T U1CRe H K TaKTHqeCKl1M rrpeHMym eCTBaM OT e bHHX HOBHX fl epHHX OOerrpHrraCOB h BOerOJIOBKH Mfl aOBhlX HacTyrraTeJIbHEtX Cpe II CTB Yfl e OCTaTo' ·mO 11 XOpOllO OTpaOOTaHH BOeSapfl TpeTherO rrOKOReHHfl OC06eHHO peHT­ reHoBcKM t1 JIaSep Tvma 3 KCKaJrnoyP HaxO flTCfl nOKa Ha CaMOH paH- ­ HeH CT MH Te HqeCKOrO pasBHTHfl HX OBO Ka B nro60M c ae I po a KpOMe Toro nOKasaTe M s eKTHBHOCTH H MO fl epHHX nOTeH­ HanOB BYX CTpaH He COOTHOCRTCfl npflMO HHeMHO Be eHHhlX CTOpOHaMH fl epHhlX HCITHTaHHtL C KO HqeCTBOM K Haqany 70-x rrpo­ rO OB Mew CCCP 11 CiliA CJIO HRCfl rrpHMepHHH CTpaTerHqeCKH t1 napHTeT HeCMOTpfl Ha TO O K TOMy MOMeHTy Coe HHeHHHe lliTaTH 60 ee qeM B Boe '­ onepeJKaJIH COBeTcKHM COIOS no llliCJlY npoBenemillx BSpHBOB 577-248 '­ OKO O 30-TH BSpHBOB KOTopHe MOrJIH OH npoBecTH HeM rropfl Ke KaHbHO ECJU1 sa BpeMR II aJKe He HSMeHRT CtIiA He Byx eTHero nOJlO eHHe B CiliA B cOBeTgKoro QnHOCTOPOH __ gpA opHa -pa­ STO 06 aCTH rrpMcoe HHRTCR K HanIeMy MopaTopMIO Vi He nOWT Ha SaKnroqeHHe HOBoro orOBopa no STOMy BOrrpOCy COBeTCKMH COIOS CyMeeT npH HeOOXO HMOCTM OCTaTOqaO OHCTpO HaBepCTaTb ynymeHHoe sa BpeMR rraysH B I1CIlliTBJH1RX 6 6H 0 6H no 3 Y THBafl s o eHHoe npe cTaB fleTcfl o eReco06pasHo 6H npo HTb COBeTCK MopaTopH nc XO Or qeCKOMY MeCfl eB 6H O npo sBe o 6e B CiliA ero H R BeKa R epHoro H B BpeMeHH yrHx 6H BneqaTneHMe CBO X c nax O H ro OTO nepeRpH O no HeCKO bKY e eKTY npe HHe npo oHraqHH OCTaTOqHO fl epHoro BH eH R Ha fl pasBepTHBaH R 3an a cTpaHax aHT ­ B nOnHOM MaClliTa­ HenoKone6 MoM YBepeHHocT CCCP B HOBoro MHmne­ r y60KoM npMBep eHHocT np naM B STOM c nyqae oc060e SHaqeHl1e npvI06peTana 6H wopMa B1IPmKe­ COOTBeTCTByromero r THBaR qTO KHP He saaBneH R ero ny6nHQHaR MOTHBHpOBKa npOBO HT fl epH@x HCTIHTaH R 6 hIno 6hl CBflsaTb B nOS T BHOM nnaHe aKT qeCK M MopaTop eM K Ta CKO Ecn OKmKeTCR no BoeHHO-TeXHMqeCK M HeBOSMO HM npo eH e Y ­ ' C 1980 ro a MO HO Hamero MopaTop R C CTOpOH hI co06p eHHflM eKeco06pasHo OTCPO Tb npo eHMe TaROe 3aRBneH e 0 BHXO­ e HS MopaTopMfl o Ko a 1986 r HMefl B BHAY BOSMO HYID COBeTCKO­ ----------------------_ - - -------­ aMepMKaHCKYID BCTpeqy Ha BHcrneM ypoBHe 41-ro ceccMro rrpe cToRmyro rA OOH B hI60PH B KOHrpecc CiliA a T e TO qTO 1986r 06DHBneH OOH nrO OM lvU1pa M Ham MopaTopHM Ha ene RBnfleTCfl CaM11M Kpyn­ HHM MnpaKTMqeCKMM BKn OM BO McnonHeH e SToro pemeHHR OOH K HaQany 1987r CTaHYT rrpe en hI ee rOTOBHOCTM CKO Bos eMcTBMR Ha HMCTP M 60Pb6 hI MnM RCH hI nepcneKTMB hI rocy apcTBeHHyro nonUTMK Y nORTH Ha 060CTpeHMe npe p HflTb KoppeKT pOBKY onrr03H H B CiliA cTe Hb BHYTpHnOn TMqe­ CBoero HeKOHCTpYK­ -_--- ------ _-- _--_ _-- ---------_ --- TMBHoro Kypca EBpone no aBneH eM KOHrpecca 11 COIDSH KOB B 3an 0 d 7 ITPH HeOOXO ¥iMOCTH nOCJIe I HHBapH 1987 I' M01KHO 3a ffBHTb 'ITO CCCP CqHTaeT ceoR CBOOO OT MopaTopHH HO nOBpeMeHHTb C B0300HOB­ JIeHHeM HcrrHTaHHA o Hcxo a e6aToB B KOHI'pecce rro BoeHHoMY o eTY Ha 1988 HHaHCOB I'o KaR aJIbTepHaTHBa MO O O O OR B0300HOBHTb B3pHBH eJIaTeJIbHO He PCRPOBaHHHMH TeMTIaMH H 3aRBHTb 0 I'OTOB­ HOCTH rrpeRpaTMTb HX BHOBb EaR TOJIbRO STO c eJIaIDT CllA EcJIH rrORBflTCR XOTfl O OrpaHHqeHHHe nO BKMKH B n03H HH CllA H B TO e BpeMfl CTaHeT OqeB HHM OOJIbmeI'O- execoo6pa3Ho H onrr03w qHfl He B CHJIax OOHTbCH 6bmO HMeH BHHI'pHmHHe nOJIHTHQeCKHe rr03H­ B OTBeT Ha Oop eID1e yqeHhlX aMepHRaHCKIDC KOHrpeCCMeHOB WIH PYKOBO HTeJIe OT O TpeTbHX CTpaH 3a ffBHTb 0 COI'JIaCHH KOHe o eJIH nOJIHOI'O 3arrpe eHKff ff epHHX CCCP He OTKa3HBaRCb HCngTaHH B STOM Borrpoce TaKMe H nyTeM qaCTHqHHX marOB npO BHI'aTbC ff OI'paHHqHB HX I'OHKy BoopYiKeHID1 tIacTH'tllibIe Mep pasopy teHHH cnOCOOHble cy ecTBeHHO 38Me JIHTb H OrpaHHqHTb HaHOOJIee orraCHHe Te eHqHH B pasBHTHH TeXHOJIOI'HH ff epHHX 60e3ap OB C03 aHHH HOBRX CHCTeM HacTynaTeJIbHOI'O 11 rrpOTHBopaReTHO­ KOCMHQeCKOI'O opy H ff KaR npe CTaBJI ffeTCfl 6bI BRJI qaTb BnORHe peanbHH OHM MOI'JIH HanpIDAep CHM7KeHl1e B03M07KHO- nOSTaIIHOe pa3pemeHHoro rropora MO OCTH HC TaHHH co 150 RT o ypOBHH MeHee 10-5 RT qTO saTpY HIDIO Ohl HCnblTaHMe aapH D OB He Ha noJIHYIO aa IJ aHHyIO MO OCTb OCJI07KHRJIO pa3BHTHe 60eI'OJIOBOR JIH HOBHX HacTyrraTeJIbHHX cpe CTB H B e e OOJIbmeH Mepe - JI ff RAepHoI'O 0PY HH TpeTbeI'O nOKOJIeHHH YCTa­ HOBJIeHHe Ta e B03MO O no STarraM 'lKeCTKO KBOTH Ha KOJIKqeCTBO HCTIhlTaHH O HeCKOJIbKHX BSpHBOB B I'o Ta e cy ecTBeHHO 3aMe JIRJIO ObI TeMIThl H cySRnO MaCIDTaohl Coa aHMH HOBhlX Boopy eHH TaKHe OrpaHMqeHRff JIeI'qe rrO aBaJIHCb K TOMy e 6H KOHTpOJIIO qeM rrOJIHoe aarrpe­ eHHe HCTIHTaHHH HaKoH6q no oo rrYTb OOJIeI'qaJI ObI B nepcneKTHBe pemeHHe npOOJIeM C03 aBaeMHX ff epHhlMH B3pEBaMH TpeTbHX CTpaH 8 4 Oo ee COCTOHHHe cOBeTCKO-aMepHKaHCKMX oTHomeHzft BsaHMO­ oTHomeHHft no RKHHH EbCTOK-3an Mo eT ceft ac OHTh oxapaKTepH30BaHO RaK 6aJIaHCHpy ee Mew HCHHM nOBopOTOM K yRy'tlIIIeHMIO rryCTh H orpaHZ­ -------- -------------------------- - eHHOMy JIH60 K nOJIrOBpeMeHHOMy OCJI07IHeHHlO B STHX yCJIOBIDIX 3aHBJIe­ Hze 0 rrpeKp eHHH Hamero MopaTopHff Ha H epHHe B3P H 06 eK- ---- THBHO eftcTBOBaJIO 6H B He eJIaTenhHylO JIR Hac CTOpOHy o6JIerQano 6H - --- RpaftHe npaBHM 3JIeMeHTaM B PYKOBO CTBe CiliA rrpOBe eHHe BOKHCTBeHHoro KYpca yCHJIHBaJIO B TO 6H HX BHYTpHnOJIHTH eCKHe rro3HqHH e BpeMH B03MO OCTH HCTP ZH MaHeBpZpOBaTh z306pa­ aH MHpOJII06He H rOTOBHOCTh K noroBopeHHOCTHM CTOJIh Me 06 eKTHBHO no nxo nflT K rrpe eny H Ha npoTHXeHzH 1987 r 6y nyT no Bceft BepoRT­ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HOCTH nOJIHOCThlO HCqeprraHH nOBopOT ee K B STOM cnyqae RH60 npOH30 eT peanhH OCTHEeHHlO OrpaHH eHH@X COrJIameHH o Mo eT aMy rrpo6JIeMY MopaTopHH 60 CHHTb HarrpOTHB rr03HQHH O HaJIbHOrO BamHHr- TOHa 6Y T 3BOJIDQHOHKpOBaTh B HanpaBJIeHHH KOTopoe C eJIaeT B rJIa38X 3arr oro 06 eCTBeHHoro MHeH Ham BUXO M3 MOpaTOpRff e e 60nee -J MopanhHO H rrOJIHTHqeCRH onpaB naHHHM qeM 3TO 6HnO 6M CerO IViH