Notes from Washington Meeting We We met met on on December December 5 5 with with Scoville Scoville of of ACDA ACDA Gartoff Gartoff and and Sonnenfeld Sonnenfeld of of State Halperin of INS along with a number number of others to discuss the corning coming Moscow Moscow visit visit As present As a a preliminary preliminary there there was was some some discussion discussion of of who who is is present now now at at the the U S U S Embassy Embassy in in Moscow Moscow It It was was noted noted that that Akelowsky Akelowsky aa fine fine interpreter interpreter is is there there Chris Chris Squires Squires is is the the science science man man In In the the view view of of almost almost all all of of the the Russian Russian studies studies group group the the most most useful useful outcome outcome of of our our talks talks would would be be to to get get the the Soviet Soviet to to come come to to offical offical converations converations We have put pes on the table a suggestion for a meeting and it is still their move to to set set a a date date or or to to accept accept or or reject reject So So far far there there has has been been no no official official or or even even unofficial unofficial reaction reaction to to our our ABM ABM deployment deployment as as implying implying that that the the meeting meeting is is more more difficult Nor has there been any official statement that a proposal from the U S is needed needed for discussion purposes Among Among the the items items that that will will be be of of interest interest to to us us will will be be the the Tallin Tallin defense defense system not be system which which we we must must assume assume is is ABM ABM although although it it may may also also not be here would be interesting ICBMs ICBMs A new system of interest are the mobile A second new These were paraded and discussed during the celebration is is the BOBS system Their Their views views Finally there The mobile-launched ICMB incidentally has been quoted in the the literature as being intercontinental intercontinental self-propelled hard-fueled The rapid rapid Soviet deployment continues and there has so far been no discussion of what their program program is for and what their objectives are be interesting to try to understand be This will So far incidentally there has been no indication of multiple warhead systems under development by the USSR A A good speech on the characteristics of the Soviet build-up was given by Senator Jackson about a week ago A point of interest is the destabilizing moves being taken on each side A From our standpoint the mobilized ICBM is destabilizing our MIRV progrmn our MIRV program ns as desLnbljzing destablizing They may well see From Trom either cither si lc side some some more more communi caLion communication as directions 1ml nLcnL will wi11 surely be useful and jintent i s As somcLhing something to say from our 2 side properly say side we we can can properly say if if the the subject subject comes comes up up that that MIRV MIRV is is a a response response to to ununcertainty certainty about about the the Moscow Moscow ABM ABM and and Tallin Tallin system system i e i e it it is is effectively effectively aa penetration penetration aid aid W ith respect Jith respect to to ABM ABM the the Moscow Moscow ABM ABM does does not not seem seem to to be be against against China China but but against against the the U S U S systems systems agains againstt China It It will will be be interesting interesting to to see see what what they they have have in in mind mind Incidentally in private the individual Soviets have commented that that they they think think our our ABM ABM system system may may well well be be anti-USSR anti-USSR rather rather than than as as stated stated against China China We should examine what can be done without a formal inspection agreement i e i e following Warneke's speech we can look for what can be done using unilateral lateral systems As As a different point we can reasonably argue that Soviet and the U S have now reached rough parity MRBM in the toal package This is true if one includes their IRBM and It is also noteworthy that there are a variety of possible possible measures measures and and it it may may well well be be that that they they find find more more interest interest in in aa given given measure measure e e e g8 total total megatonnage megatonnage whereas whereas we we might might find find more more interest interest in in aa measure such as total numbers It press them t will will be be interesting interesting to to press them as as what what they they think think FOBS FOBS are are for for We We can can say say that that from from our our standpoint standpoint they they look look like like aa first-strike first-strike systems systems perhaps perhaps directed against airfields Parenthetically over-the-horizon radar may well minimize the significance of these It Tt is likely that non-proliferation will soon be under discussion and we will be talking about two different problems One is how to push ahead quickly to get US-USSR agreement and a full full treaty tabled The other one will be to assume agreement between us and then ask how can we sign on the Nth countries A A point point to to be be made made is is that that more more official official US-USSR US-USSR meetings meetings to to assess assess strategy strategy parallel parallel approaches to Nth countries will be very desirable 3 Following this meeting we went up to discuss things with Undersecretary Foy Foy Kohler Kohler Kohler Kohler reiterated reiterated the the need need to to press press for for formal formal US-USSR US-USSR talks talks He He noted that no formal linkage with the Embassy would be preferable i e we should look elsewhere for an interpreter if we need one Turning to broad problems he noted that the USSR defense budget both overt overt and hidden has been going up significantly and remains at least at the level of 10 percent of GNP It seems seems clear that a closing of their missile gap been a high gap'' has has been high priority priority item item He noted that He noted that Kosygin Kosygin who who is is conscious conscious of of costs may well see the difficulties in these but he's not at all sure sure that the military and specifically Breshnev do It does seem clear that some internal talks between the civilians and military groups have been going on at a very high level and doubtless this along with the slowness of getting decentralization of economic activities will be subject for concern He noted that things have been been going slowly in agriculture also He He suspects that the Middle East is probably still seen as a setback and noted noted that a closed Suez canal is hard on USSR trade On the other hand they have pushed military supplies back into the Middle East at an exceedingly rapid rate Kohler also noted what to us is an almost appalling proclivity of the USSR to insert themselves into hot crisis crisis’ situations leaving their ships and supply vehicles vulnerable supply vehicles vulnerable in in case case of of some some incident incident numbers numbers of advisers in Egypt etc He He noted noted the the increased increased Kohler thinks it will be interesting to see what what we cover if we attempt to discuss this convential arms supply problem He He thinks it would be worthwhile seeing what we can find out from Kirillin on technological exchanges dead He notes that the AEC-type exchange seems to be With respect to normal exchanges the pressure toward agreement seems to be going on but the US anticipates difficult negotiations Kohler discussed in gc1wr il ng toward general the kinds of nuclear restrictions lendj leading cutb 1cks renson 1bly think Ll1ink about nnd utbacks tlwl that we might rcasonably and suggested as a tactical matter 4 that we cease to employ the word ''freeze that we 'freeze' which has picked up a somewhat had bad implication implication On a set of miscellaneous items where it would be of interest to hear reactions he mentioned the question of their reaction to the Easterm initiatives of the FGR He corrnnented commented on the tendencies for France to link up to the USSR He noted that the activities at the Korean border ought to to be troublesome on both sides He noted that the noted that the current current view view by by the the Soviet Soviet of of the the China China situation situation would would be be interestinteresting to know about He also made the point that an expanded Cormnon pointthat Common Market including the to be the UK UK leading leading to to stability stability in in Europe Europe ought ought on on aa geo-politicaJ geo-political basis basis to be interesting interesting to the Soviet We We discussed discussed briefly briefly whether whether we we could could perhaps perhaps act act as as messengers messengers for for the the results of the VEIA VELA studies near the Kurile Islands and pointed out that a recommendation for this was in process Kohler thought this was a poor idea and suggested suggested that that the the first first delivery delivery of of the the data data should should be be through through official official channels channels but agreed that they would try to get these delivered before we went over so that we we would be able to talk talk about the delivery and use it as a lever for more similar exchanges 12 19 67