-December 7 1 967 Academician Millions hc hiko v Havi ng realized o nly today that Feld will be leaving tonight to meet with y o u I have h urried ly assembled some things that mig ht be useful in our discussions i n Moscowo F irst seve ral o f us we re s truck by h ow well a recent art i cle by Gi lpatric reflected o u r own growing sense of u r gency Henc e I have had s ome copies madeo If you could distribute i t t o your c o lleagues t hey would have some sense o f what makes u s t hink t hese discussions a r e so i mp o rtan t at t h is t i meo Second on t he b a s is o f discuss i on we ha v e had here I have written down in my own words a s ummary statement of our concern and wh at we hope mi g h t be accomplis h e d t oget t se r w tb a 1 ist of i t e ts o qu stions that we hope we mi g ht d i s cuss during our visit a If you have time to loo k at t hese and sen d b a ck with Feld any comment s that y o u have we would be most gratefulo Most of us including myself in tend to arr i ve in Moscow from Lon don on British European Ai rwa ys o n the afternoon of De c e mber 27tho I am p l anning to l eav e via Copenhagen on Janu ary 3o If it i s c o n venient I would like to spen d the 2nd i n Lening rad go ing and returning by t h e n i g ht t raino You s h o u ld have al l o f our plans shortlyo Please l et Fe l d know if there i s anyt hing I could bringo Looking forwa r d with p l e a s ure to our meet i ng and meanwhile wi t h best wi s hes t o you and your wi fe o I am s ince rely yours P Do ty we are concerned that polit ical and technological developments are driving both the Soviet Union and the United States into a new round in the strategic arms race and that unless very deliberate and carefully t hought- out steps are taken we will find ourselves burdened wi th vast new and unnecessary expenditures on arms and worse moving into an era of increasing instability with great danger to the worldo Though it appears to be almost too late to prevent this we feel it imperat i ve to tryo To this t n l we t h ink it importa11t that we attempt to 1 arrive at an understanding of how we each view the strategic arms race 2 search for mutually acceptable points at which the race may be interdicted and some stability achieved and 3 if there is some agreement on this explore how greater stability can be broug ht about I New Technological factors that Destabilize the Strategic Balance - RJ R New missile systems J z Penetration aids Gt Consequent · uncertainty of performanceg deterrence Ballistic missile defenses R • II relation to Factors Affecting Strategic Security Asymmetry of the requirements for deterrence on the two sides The Problem of Parity J 2_ 4- H f r F III # 1 L-• Overreaction by each side to technological uncertainties and misreading of intent R sp se o new nuc ear po111 r The role of the Non-Proliferation Treaty What is Involved in Stopping and Reversing the Arms Race To what extent can there be a common view of what mutual restraints are possible f V What principles should govern agreements on mutual restraint limitations on offensive and defensive missiles and further steps toward disarmament What technical step factors need be assessed in order to discuss realist ic steps on limitations and disarmament Can we restrict numbers and or kinds of delivery systems t L -- T J - Can we find mutually acceptable limits on anti-ballistic missile defenses J R How do these two kinds of limitations interact R- How far can we proceed depending only on unilateral verification 1-1 K What concrete steps could be taken soon