C05092436 - •· - - '-' THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE WASHINGTON 0 C 20505 Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment NFAC 5284-81 20 August 1981 MEMORANDUM FOR Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence VIA Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment National Intelligence Officer for Warning FROM Acting Special Assistant for Nuclear Proliferation Intelligenc SUBJECT Warning Report--Nuclear Proliferation • The Interagency Intelligence Working Group on Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence met on 19 August 1981 to discuss warning matters Attached is my report based on the discussion that took place and on recently-acquired DO information Attachment Warning Report When Removed From Attachment Treat as C05092436 ' • r• 7 0 7 7 LlfJ i L ££7 ROUTING NAME AND ADDRESS TO DATE INITIALS 1 2 Security Classification A- ·' 3 CONTROL NO 4 ACTION APPROVAL COMMENT CONCURRENCE DIRECT REPLY DISPATCH FILE INFORMATION PREPARE REPLY RECOMMENOA TION RETURN SIGNATURE REMARKS I j I FROM NAME ADDRESS AND PHONE NO DATE ' Access to this document will be restricted to those approved for the following specific activities 41 V T - - - - - - - Security Classification 21 V C050 92 4 36 - PROPINUSIBONLYORCON- -rr•·· Dissemination and Extrac Controlled by Originator This Information has been Authorized Release to - · -- - ---coso9243 6 20 August 1981 Warnin ort Nuclear Proliferation Pakistan India The Pakistanis seem not to be overly concerned about the findings of the International Atomic Energy Agency concerning the inadequacy of safeguards at the nuclear power plant in Karachi The results of a preliminary analysis indicate that a large amount of irradiated fuel--possibly containing enough plutonium for a nuclear explosive--could have been diverted from the plant in recent months Islamabad has instructed its Ambassador in Washington to inform US officials that Pakistan will resist a proposed upgrading of safeguards at the plant President Zia may have concluded that Pakistan will be able to parry the IAEA findings and that no damage is likely to be done to the prospective military assistance agreement with the United States The Indians and Soviets could raise the issue of safeguards on Pakistan's nuilear program at an upcoming IAEA meeting as one means of undermining the US-Pakistani arms deal - - - - - - - - - -- - --i Prime Minister Gandhi is I planning to inform Western leaders at the October Cancun summit of the threat of war posed by US arms supplies to Pakistan Her view is that Pakistan's acquisition of US F-16 aircraft and its development of nuclear weapons pose a great security threat to India She is particularly concerned that India's oil and nuclear installations will become vulnerable to Pakistani air attack And Indian defense official reportedly are now of the view that war between Indiq and Pakistan is not as remote as it was a year ago I l The mrorandum is produced periodically by the Special Assistant to the D 1 NFA for Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence Its purpose is to revie possible developments in the short-term future that would be damaging to US interests Obviously many of these developments will not occur in the time frame or in the manner suggested or will not occur at all Copy zz