'fi Q UNCLASSIFIED United ffifffgg5efu°FML Washington D C I 20520 VISIT OF PRIME MINISTER JUNEJO OF PAKISTAN I _JULY 15 - 21 1986 • TABLE·OF CONTENTS SCOPE PAPER AGENDA SCHEDULE VISITOR'S SCHEDULE DELEGATION LIST MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT BRIEFING OUTLINES FOR THE SECRETARY 0 0 t- SADIXED7 kl 2 I 1986 1 MEMORANDUM FOR BRIEFING THE PRESIDENT LUNCHEON JULY 16 AND MEETING JULY 17 WITH THE PRIME MINISTER BACKGROUND MATERIALS 1 PAKISTAN INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION PAKISTAN ECONOMIC POLICY AND REFORM 3 US ASSISTANCE TO PAKISTAN 4 PAKISTAN NUCLEAR ISSUE 5 NARCOTICS CONTROL 6 AFGHANISTAN THE STATE OF THE WAR 7 AFGHANISTAN GENEVA NEGOTIATIONS 8 PAKISTAN PUBLIC OPINION ON US USSR 9 PAKISTAN AT A GLANCE 10 ECONOMIC DATA SHEET 2 BIOGRAPHIC MATE IALS IECIIETl8ENll1N DECL OADR UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED - ll11it ·d Stah I qiart 11w11l ii '• ' ---1 1 •· RELEASED IN FULL li rni1111r1 11 J L' 'fJ i fl BRIEFING MEMORANDUM SIS SECRET SENSITIVE TO The Secretary THRU P FROM NEA - Richard SUBJECT Michael H Armacost w Murphy s·cope Paper Official Visit of Pakistan Prime Minister Mohammed Khan Junejo -- 15-22 July 1986 I I WHERE DOES OUR RELATIONSHIP STAND o u s -Pakistan relations on a firm foundation· of mutual interest general approach on most issues is similar o Keystone of relationship is multi-year assistance programs signed in 1981 and 1986 of $3 2 and $4 02 billion respectively Aid promotes limited military modernization economic development and Pak confidence in ability to stand up to Soviet pressures while contributing positively we believe to our non-proliferation goals o Nuclear proliferation issue nonetheless remains serious threat to the relationship we have concerns also on narcotics economic policy reform and GOP hesftancy to approve more public aspects of our Afghanistan strategy o Prime Minister on first us visit heads new civilian government with whom new aid package was negotiated but is still new to issues in US-Pakistan relationship Junejo is committed to strong stand on Afghanistan in negotiations and through support- for mujahidin but he is politically sensitive to mounting public anxiety at home regarding the refugees and Soviet pressures Specifically Juneja has hesitated to implement Afghan humanitarian assistance program and to work tow rd higher profile for the Afghan resistance abroad SECRET SENSITIVE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SECRET SENSITIVE ·- 2 - II WHAT DO WE WANT o Demonstrate our support for the lifting of martial law the peaceful transition to constitutional government and the strengthening of democratic process and institutions · US consistently urged restoration of democracy Reality of change under Junejo obscured by media preoccupation with return of opponent Benazir Bhutto o · Reaffirm long- erm US commitment to Pakistan's security in the face of continuing Soviet threats --Underscore importance of US-Pak military cooperation in tangibly demonstrating that US commitment to Moscow o ' Conduct all aspects of visit so as to ensure that Junejo as civilian leader feels he has political stake in the future of the US-Pak relationship while preserving our important links with President Zia· Establish personal relationship with Junejo educate him on US political process and expose him first-hand to the issues in us-Pak relations Encourage Junejo to defend Pakistan assistance program with the media and on the Hill where Gramm-Rudman cuts will increase pressures on all programs o Gain Juriejo's support for the genuine restraint in Pakistan's nuclear program needed to keep assistance relationship on track Follow-on aid program will require Congressional waiver of provisi6ns of Symington ameridrnent just as was required to launch current program in 1981 us law requires annual Presidential certification that Pakistan does not possess nuclear device and that our aid program significantly reduces risk of this Pak activities in this area make annual certification -- and even Congressional waiver -- very problematic o Review Afghan negotiatioris and overall Afghanistan strategy convince Junejo he has vested interest in keeping our policies in step ·UNCLASSIFIED SECRET SENSITIVE - 3 - Ensure that Junejo understands US requirements for supporting any agreement which emerges from UN talks Persuade Junejo of importance of implementing Afghan humanitarian aid and media projects and improving political effectiveness of resistance alliance o Review our concerns over narcotics control with particular focus on more effective enforcement in the Northwest Frontier Province NWFP this fall o Remind Junejo of need for economic policy reform and note linkage between aid and GOP reform performance · ' III WHAT DO THEY WANT o Consolidate ongoing US-Pakistan relationship while establishing personal relationship with the President Prime Minister told mbassador Hinton he has no new bilateral issues to raise o I --Will likely mention need for help with air · defense aerial surveillance needs in light of escalating DRA Soviet air attacks J ' Seek reassurance of us commitment to Pakistan's security while preserving Pakistan's formal non-aligned status o Highlight the importance of constitutional changes in Pakistan and use visit to build Junejo's political stature as civilian head of elected government -- Junejo relatively unknown outside of Pakistan seeks recognition for his role in restoring democracy o Ensure US side appreciates Pakistan's views on key issues of interest to USG -- Afghanistan India nuclear narcotics assistance democratization o Foster US awareness that restoration of democracy will impose political constraints on Pakistan's ability to support proposals which raise Pak profile on Afghanistan o Assess degree to which improvement in US relations with India might weaken US support for Pakistan SECRET SENSITIVE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SECRET SENSITIVE - 4 - o Press Pakistan's case on the Hill for understanding and for support of economic and security assistance --Paks understand severe·us budget constraints but hope we will be able to deliver full funding for current and follow-on assistance packages IV WHAT CAN WE ACHIEVE ' o Ensure continuation of Pakistan's close collaboration on Afghanistan re the mujahidin and in the negotiations while affirming our respect for Pakistan' s non-alignment o Gain Junejo's support for key elements of our Afghanistan strategy greater alliance visibility humanitarian assistance and media project on which he is hesitant o Enhance Pakistan's confidence in our commitment to their security and _our intention to press for full funding of current and follow-on assistance packages despite budgetary stringency Reassure Junejo that our improving relationship with India is aimed at long-term reduction of Indo-soviet ties and will not be at the cost of our long-standing commitments to Pakistan ' Give Junejo-better appreciation of US strategic needs in the region and the importance of Pakistan's role 'J o Encourage Junejo to use Hill and media contacts to strengthen support for our current and follow-on Pakistan aid packages with the Congress_and with the public Make sure he understands th t Pakistan's restoration of democracy support of Afghan freedom search for enduring peace with India and credible assurance of his commitment to nuclear non-proliferation are his best selling points o Ensure that as a newcomer to GOP nuclear policy-making Juneja understands absolute criticality of actions not pious words to address serious concerns we have about content and direction of Pakistan's nuclear pr9gram and thus assure continuation of our assistance relationship SECRET SENSITIVE UNCLASSIFIED • I I UNCLASSIFIED SECRET SENSITIVE - 5 - o Obtain Junejo's commitment to economic policy reform especially in connection with linkage to follow on aid o Secure greater GOP cooperation in effective program to combat growing narcotics production and trafficking • n ' SECRET SENSITIVE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED KQl0 RELEASED IN FULL CONFIDENTIAL Issue Agenda Schedule for Junejo Visit Meeting on Arrival Tuesday July 15 5 45 PM Washington Monument Grounds Reflecting Pool via helicopter to Andrews Air Force Base to meet Prime Minister upon arrival at Andrews at 6 00 PM -- Pleasure at having the Prime Minister here as our guest for his first trip to the us -- Gratification at visit to us by elected head of constitutional government in Pakistan Meeting with the President July 16 10 30 AM at White House -- Reaffirmation of US commitment to Pakistani security satisfaction with close US-Pakistan relations • ' -- Need for continued close cooperation on Afghanistan including negotiations -- Critical importance of nuclear restraint small group -- Appreciation for Pakistan's transition to democracy Your Lunch in Honor of Prime Minister Junejo Benjamin Franklin Room Department of State July 16 12 30 Pleasure at friendly open discussions with President Discuss our two governments' respective dealings with soviets including assessment of prospects for Afghanistan -- Draw out Junejo on domestic situation especially Bhutto challenge state Dinner at White House July 16 7 30 PM -- Discuss PM's earlier meeting with SFRC and role of Congress in us foreign policy --Ask for Junejo's assessment of significance of Soviet-sponsored bombings subversion in frontier province Your Call on Prime Minister Madison Hotel ·July 17 2 45 PM -- Reiterate us-support for Pakistan in view of soviet threats referring to recent exchanges of Zia-Reagan letters CONFIDENTIAL DECL OADR UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL - 2 - -- Underscore President's points on significance of nuclear restraint -- Elicit Junejo's support·for cross-border aid ano Afghan media assistance programs Raise narcotics control concerns Underscore importance of economic reform measures Express pleasure at Prime Minister's willingness to consider Peace Corps program geared to teaching of English Departure·ceremony Washington Monument Grounds Reflecting Pool July 18 6 10 PM '· -- Note progress made in deepening mutual understanding and strengthening already strong US-Pakistan friendship --Wish Juneja well on visit to Florida over weekend and then New York CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED io u RELEASED IN FULL THE OFFICIAL VISIT OF HIS EXCELLENCY MOHAMMAD KHAN JUNEJO PRIME MINISTER· OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN TO THE UNITED STATES JULY 1986 As of 7 8 86 SUMMARY SCHEDULE TUESDAY JULY 15 1986 6 00 pm His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan arrives Washington D C -Andrews Air Force Base via Pakistan International Airlines Aircraft from Pakistan Welcoming Committee 6 10 pm Depart Andrews Air Force Base via U S Presidential Helicopter enroute the Washington Monument Grounds Reflecting Pool 6 20 pm Arrive the Washington Monument Grounds Reflecting Pool 6 25 pm Depart the Washington Monument Grounds Reflecting Pool via motorcade enroute the Madison Hotel 15th and M Streets N W 6 30 pm Arrive the Madison Hotel 8 30 pm Private dinner at the Ambassador's Residence 2343 S Street N W Overnight • J UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 Madison Hotel Summary Schedule -11- UNCLASSIFIED I '' I UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE WEDNESDAY JULY 16 198 6 10 00 am White House Arrival Ceremony 10 30 am Meeting with The Honorable Ronald Reagan President of the United States of America in ·the Oval Office of the White House 12 30 pm- Luncheon hosted by The Honorable 2 15 pm The Secretary of State and Mrs Shultz in honor of His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in the Benjamin Franklin Room of the Department of State ' 2 30 pm 3 30 pm- Coffee hosted by The Honorable 4 30 pm Richard Lugar Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in honor of His Excellency_ Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in Room -S -116 of the U S Capitol Wreath Laying Ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery 4 45 pm- Meeting with Vice Admiral 5 15 pm John Poindexter Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs in the Presidential Suite of the Madison Hotel Tentative 5 15 pm- Meeting with The Honorable 5 45 pm Edwin Meese Attorney General of the United States in the Presidential Suite of the Madison Hotel 5 45 pm- Meeting with The Honorable 6 15 pm Malcolm Baldrige Secretary Commerce in the Presidential Suite of the Madison Hotel of Summary Schedule UNCLASSIFIED -12- UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE WEDNESDAY JULY 16 1986 7 30 pm State Dinner hosted by The Honorable The President of the United States of America and Mrs Reagan in honor of His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan at the White House Dress Black Tie Overnight Madison Hotel '' THURSDAY JULY 17 1986 6 50 am ' • Interview with----- -- of the Today Show at tfie NBC Studios 4100 Nebraska Avenue N W 8 15 am- Breakfast with the Editorial 9 15 am Board of THE WASHINGTON POST at the Washington Post Building 1150 15th Street N W 10 00 am- Meeting with The Honorable George P Shultz Secretary of State in the Presidential Suite of the Madison Hotel 10 4 5 pm 11 15 am· Meeting with The Honorable 11 45 am George Bush Vice President of the United States of America at the White House 12 00 pm Meeting with The Honorable Caspar Weinberger Secretary of Defense in the Secretary's office at the Pentagon Summary Schedule -13- -I UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE THURSDAY JULY 17 1986 12 3 0 pm· Luncheon hosted by The Honorable 1 45 pm Caspar Weinberger Secretary of· Defense in honor of His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan at the Pentagon 2 00 pm Coffee hosted by M_embers of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in honor of His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in Room 2172 of the Rayburn House Office Building ' 5 00 pm- Meetings with selected media 5 45 pm representatives in the Mount Vernon Room of the Madison Hotel 8 15 pm ' Dinner hosted by His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in honor of The Honorable George Bush Vice President of -the United States of America in the Dolly Madison Room of the Madison Hotel Dress ·' Overnight Madison Hotel Summary Schedule -14- l I UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE FRIDAY JULY 18 19 8 6 _ 8 00 am Breakfast meeting with- -- - -- Chamber of Commerce of the United States of America at the Chamber of Commerce of the United States of America 1615 H Street N W 10 00 am- Meeting with The Honorable 10 30 am Barber Conable President World Bank in the-Presidential Suite of the Madison Hotel I ' _ 10 30 am- Meeting with The Honorable 11 00 am James A Baker III Secretary of the Treasury in the Presidential Suite of the Madison Hotel 11 00 am- Meeting with The Honorable 11 30 am Richard Lyng Secretary of Agriculture in the Presidential Suite of the Madison Hotel 12 00 pm- Meeting with Mr Arnaud de 12 30 pm Borchgrave _ _ _ THE WASHINGTON TIMES in the Presidential Sui te of the Madison Hotel • Private luncheon 2 00 pm- Friday prayers at the Embassy 2 30 pm Chancery 2315 Massachusetts Avenue N W 3 30 pm-· Interview on Cable Television with 4 00 pm Evans and Novak at the Cable News Network Studios 111 Massachusetts Avenue N W 5 00 pm Meeting with the Pakistani Community· of Washington D C in the Room of the Omni Shoreham Hotel 2500 Calvert Street N W Summary Schedule UNCLASSIFIED -15- UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE FRIDAY JULY 18 1986 6 30 pm Prime Minister Junejo departs the Madison Hotel via motorcade enroute Washington Monument Grounds Reflecting· Pool 6 40 pm Arrive Washington Monument Grounds Reflecting Pool Farewell Committee 6 45 pm Depart the Washington Monument Grounds Reflecting Pool via U S Presidential Helicopters enroute Andrews Air Force Base 6 55 pm Arrive Andrews Air Force Base 7 00 pm Prime Minister Junejo departs Washington D C -Andrews Air Force Base via U S Presidential VC-9 Aircraft enroute Orlando Florida-Orlando International Airport 8 55 pm 'l Arrive Orlando-Orlando International Airport Welcoming Committee 9 05 pm Depart Orlando International Airport via motorcade enroute the Hyatt Regency - Cypress Hotel One Grand Cypress Boulevard Orlando 9 30 pm Arrive the Hyatt Regency - Grand Cypress Hotel Overnight Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress Hotel _Summary Schedule UNCLASSIFIED -16- i UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE SATURDAY JULY 19 1986 9 06-am· Biiefing on agriculture in Florida in the _ ____ _ Room of the Hyatt Regency - Grand Cypress Hotel 10 00 am Tour of Tilden Farms Citrus Grove 10 45 am Tour of Hermann Engelmann Greenhouses 11 45 am Tour of Muck Farms 12 30 pm Lunch at Erroll Country Club r ' ·' 2 30 pm Meeting with General in Krist the Room of the Hyatt Regency - Grand Cypress Hotel --- ---- ----- 5 10 pm Tour of Land and Sea Pavillions at Epcot Center 8 00 pm Dinner hosted by _____ in honor of His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime · Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in the ____ Room of the Epcot Center 10 00 pm Sound and Light Show at Epcot Center Overnight Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress Hotel Summary Schedule UNCLASSIFIED -17- UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE SUNDAY JULY 2 0 1 9 8 6 12 10 pm Depart the Hyatt Regency• Grand Cypress Hotel via motorcade enroute Orlando International Airport 12 35 pm Arrive Orlando International Airport Farewell Committee 12 45 pm n ' ' 3 00 pm 3 10 pm Depart LaGuardia Airport via motorcade enroute the Waldorf Astoria Hotel 301 Park Avenue 3 35 pm Arrive the Waldorf Astoria Hotel 5 00 pm Meeting with Members of the Permanent Mission of Pakistan to the United Nations at the Permanent Mission of Pakistan to the United Nations 12 East 65th Street ' ' 'l Arrive New York-LaGuardia Airport Marine Air Terminal Welcoming Committee Prime Minister Junejo departs Orlando-Orlando International Airport via U S Presidential Aircraft enroute New York New York·LaGuardia Airport Summary Schedule UNCLASSIFIED -18- UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE SUNDAY JULY 20 1986 5 0O pm TV interview with Third World Broadcastin Network at the Permanent Mission 6 00 pm- Meeting with the Pakistani 7 00 pm Community in New York at the Permanent Mission 0 ' 7 30 pm Meeting with Pakistani Physicians at the Permanent Mission 8 30 pm Dinner hosted by His Excellency S Shah Nawaz Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations in honor of the His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan at the Ambassador's residence 16 East 89th Street Overnight Waldorf Astoria Hotel J Summary Schedule UNCLASSIFIED -19- UNCLASSIFIED SUMMARY SCHEDULE MONDAY JULY 21 1986 8 30 am Breakfast with the Editorial Board of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL in the- ------ Room of the Waldorf Astoria Hotel 10 30 am Meeting with His Excellency Dr Javier Perez de Cuellar Secretary General of the United Nations in the office of the Secretary General at the United Nations ' 12 00 pm Luncheon hosted by the Foreign Policy Association in honor of His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minsiter of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in the Louis XVI Room of the Waldorf Astoria Hotel 4 30 pm Meeting with The Honorable Henry Kissinger in the Presidential Suite of the Waldorf Astoria Hotel 6 00 pm Rec ption hosted by His Excellency Dr Javier Perez de Cuellar Secretary General of the United Nations in honor of His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in the _ _ _ Room of the United Nations ' ' 8 00 pm- Dinner hosted by the U S 9 00 pm Pakistan Economic Council in honor of His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the I lamic Republic of Pakistan in the--- Room of the Waldorf Astoria Hotel Overnight Waldorf Astoria Hotel · Summary Schedule UNCLASSIFIED -20- UNCLASSIFIED SUMMA RY SCHEDULE TUESDAY JULY 22 1986 Tentative 8 00 am Breakfast with the Editors of TIME MAGAZINE in the Room of the Waldorf Astoria Hotel 10 30 am Meeting with The Honorable Richard M Nixon in the Room of 1 00 pm Luncheon hosted by the Editorial Board of THE NEW YORK TIMES in the ____ Room of 7 15 pm Depart the Waldorf Astoria Hotel via motorcade enroute John F Kennedy International Airport 7 45 pm Arrive John F Kennedy International Airport 0 · Farewell Committee ' 8 00 pm His Excellency Mohammad Khan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan departs New York-John F Kennedy International Airport and the United States via Pakistan Airline Aircraft enroute Pakistan Summary Schedule UNCLASSIFIED -21- • j UNCLASSIFIED RELEASED IN FULrl Q ID MEMBERS OF THE OFFICIAL PAllSTANI DELEGATION His Excellency Mohammad lhan Junejo Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Miss F Junejo Miss S Junejo Mr Mohammad Asad Ali Khan Junejo ' His Excellency Sahabzada Yagub-Khan Minister for Foreign Affairs Mrs Tuba Yaqub-Khan His Excellency Mian Mohammad Yasin Khan Wattoo Minister for Finance and Economic Affairs The Honorable Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif hie£ Minister of Punjab Tlie Honorable Arbab Mohammad Jahangir Khan Chief Minister of Northwest Frontier Province Delegation UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED •2- UNCLASSIFIED MEMBERS Of THE OFFICIAL PAlISTANI DELEGATION continuea ·His Excellency Ejai A iim Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the United States Mrs Shahida Azim Air Chief Marshal Jamal Ahmad Khan Chief of Air-stii'ff PAF Mr A G N Kati Deputy Chairman Planning Commission Mr Abdul Sattar Foreign Secretary '' Delegation UNCLASSIFIED -3- UNCLASSIFIED QI RELEASED IN FULL THE SECRETARY OF' STATE WASHINGTON ···-·· •·-·····- --·-··--·· ·····-·-·-------·-··· ·------ CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM FOR The President FROM George P Shultz SUBJECT You Meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Mohammad Khan Junejo July 16 10 30 1 WHERE DOES OUR RELATIONSHIP STAND -- US-Pakistan relations on firm foundation of mutual interest general approach on most issues is similar -- Keystone of relationship is multi-year assistance programs signed in 1981 and 1986 of $3 2 and $4 02 billion respectively · -- Nuclear proliferation issue nonetheless remains serious threat to relationshipJ we have concerns also on narcotics economic policy reform and GOP hesitancy to approve more public aspects of our Afghanistan strategy -- Prime Minister on first US visit heads new civilian government with whom new aid package was negotiated but is still new to issues in OS-Pakistan relat onship ' 2 WHAT DO WE WANT -- Demonstrate support for peaceful transition to constitutional government and strengthening of democratic ·process and institutions which we had u ged -- Reaffirm long-term US commitment to Pakistan's security in face of continuing Soviet thr_eats -- Conduct visit so as to ensure that Junejo as civilian leader feels he has political stake in the future of us-Pak relationship while preserving our important links with President Zia -- Gain Junejo's support foe genuine restraint in Pakistan's uclear program needed to keep assistance relationship on track i UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 CONFIDENTIAL 11 DECL · OADR il UNCLASSIFIED ' UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL _______ --------------_ ···----·- - 2 -- --·- -·------ ···-···· -----'--···---------·--------···---- -- Review Afghan negotiations and overall Afghanistan strategy convince Junejo he has vested interest in keeping our policies in step -- Review our concerns over need for effective program of narcotics control 3 WHAT DOES JUNEJO·WANT -- Consolidate ongoing US-Pakistan relationship while establishing a personal relationship with you 'J -- Seek reassurance on US commitment to Pakistan's security while preserving Pakistan's formal· non-aligned status -- Highlight importance of constitutional changes in Pakistan and use visit to build Junejo's political stature as civilian head of elected government -- Foster U S awareness that restoration of democracy will impose political constraints on Pakistan's ability to support proposals which raise Pak profile on Afghanistan ·-- Press Pakistan's case on the Hill for und•rstanding and for support of economic and security assistance 4 WHAT CAN WE ACHIEVE FROM THIS VISIT --Ensure continuation of Pakistan's close collaboration on Afghanistan re the mujahidin and in the negotiations lay down marker on vital importance of a short timetable for soyiet withdrawal -- Gain Junejo's support for key elements of our Afghanistan strategy greater alliance visibility humanitarian· assistance and media aid program on which he is hesitant --Enhance Pakistan's confidence in our commitment to their security and our intention to press for full funding of current and follow-on assistance packages despite budgetary stringency -- Encourage Junejo to use Hill and media contacts to strengthen support for current and follow-on Pakistan aid packages with the Congress and the public · CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL - 3 - -- --- ---------·- ---------··· ---··--·-· · ·----·------· ----- --Reassure Junejo that our improving relationship with India is aimed at reducing lndo-soviet ties and will not be at the cost of our long-standing commitments to Pakistan -- Ensure that Junejo understands critical need for positive steps to meet serious USG concern about Pakistan's nuclear program assure continuation of us assistance -- Obtain Junejo•s commitment to effective cooperation to combat growing narcotics production and trafficking '·' CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED United States Department of Stale Washington D C 20520 RELEASED IN FULL BRIEFING MEMORANDUM S S SECRET r TO The Secretary THRO P - Mr Armacost FROM NEA - Richard W Murphy SUBJECT Briefing the President for his meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Mohammad Khan Junejo Wednesday July 16 10 30 a m 1' I Jr SETTING o Junejo sees the President during· the first full day of his visit will also meet separately wi_th Weinberger Baldridge Baker Lyng and you Outside Washington he will visit Orlando on the weekend nd thereafter in New York will see U SYG former President Nixon Kissinger and commercial foreign policy and media groups before departing for Pakistan on _the 22nd o Junejo arrives with no shopping list has no new issues to raise Sees visit as opportunity to garner recognition for his role in guiding peaceful transition to elected constitutional government in Pakistan visits Turkey and FRG enroute us o Our goals -Build on our negotiation of a new multi-year aid agreement with Junejo to solidify our ties with Pakistan's new civilian leadership --Bolster Pakistan's confidence in the face of Soviet by reaffirming our commitment to its security pressure from Afghanistan --Gain Junejo's support for more public aspects of our Afghanistan strategy e g humanitarian aid the Afghan media assistance project bigger international role for alliance • UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT QF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 DE SSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SECRET - 2 - --Urge on him importance of Pak nuclear restrain t --Encourage continued democratization and --Promote progress in effective narcotics control II PAKISTAN POLITICAL SITUATION AND U S INTERESTS o Key While Zia retains considerable power Junejo enjoys his confidence a d exercises day-to-day management of GOP on issues of key concern to us Junejo has little foreign affairs experience and is deeply involved in and strongly influenced by the historic political transition which he is attempting to manage at home this is his first visit to U S o Junejo's position r seeks to reaffirm solid US-Pakistan ties but with US understanding of Pakistan's non-alignment and that domestic political changes taking place impose constraints on his actions Seeks US recognition of his role in lifting martial law and restoring elected constitutional government in Pakistan Will press for full funding of current arid future US assistance commitments GRH budget squeeze notwithstanding o President's position Reaffirm long-term commitment to Pakistan Applaud restoration of constitutional government and Junejo's role in peaceful transition Stress severe budget constraints note our commitment to seek full funding for Pakistan programs and encourage him to lobby on the Hill to help us overcome difficulties cause by Pak nuclear program SECRET 'I I UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SECRET - 3 - III AFGHANISTAN o Junejo government is committed to staying the course on Afghanistan but growing Pak public unease about Afghan sabotage bombings coupled with anxiety· about Soviet pressures has induced hesitancy in implementing key parts of our Afghanistan strategy with high public profile o Junejo's position GOP in step with US on overall Afghan strategy Paks will not sell out Afghan cause at bargaining table but do not see meaningful role for resistance leaders in current UN talks format ' GOP prepared in principle to step up pressure on Soviets but reluctant now to promote heightened profile of fragile Afghan resistance alliance or to risk jeopardizing possible progress at UN talks GOP is willing to work out mechanism to implement cross-border assistance but wants activities to be kept low profile o ·' I President's position Stress our admiration for Pakistan's firm and principled stand on Afghanistan we want to stay in lock step on overall Afghan strategy · Press importance of keeping resistance leaders fully informed on details of the UN talks Urge Paks to move forward with humanitarian aid and Afghan media assistance project as key elements of strategy for sustaining the resisitance and increasing pressures on Soviets to withdraw -- For similar reasons we seek Pakistani cooperation in increasing the international profile of the resistance alliance SECRET 'i I UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SECRET - 4 IV PAKISTAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM 0 Key Pak nuclear program continues and the ability of the President to certify annually that Pakistan does not possess a nuclear device and that our aid reduces significantly the risk that they will grows increasingly problematic so also the new waiver which will be needed for a follow-on program · We have recently expressed anew our concerns on enrichment to Zia and to Yaqub but Junejo -- new to the nuclear issue but a key player in future -may not fully appreciate the serious implications for US-Pak relations of Pak program • o Junejo's position -- Will repeat Zia assurances Pak program strictly peaceful in content and intent Will assert that GOP expects adversaries to doubt · Pak word but not a close friend like the US Pakistan ready to sign on dotted line on a variety of non-proliferation measures -- already advanced publicly -- as soon as India does so ' Paks expect agreement this fall on mutual Indo-Pak pledge not to attack nuclear facilities o President's position Remind Junejo of assurances Zia gave him in 1982 and 1984 about Pak restraint in nuclear program Ensure Junejo understands absolute criticality of such restraint and of actions not words to address serious us concerns re Pak nuclear program us does not question Pak right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes I We recognize Pak domestic political sensitivities and wish to avoid public confrontation or challenge to Pak sovereignty SECRET UNCLASSIFIED ·UNCLASSIFIED SECRET - 5 -- But if quiet Pak actions to restrain program are not forthcoming our entire relationship and the basis for our aid could be undermined We recognize nuclear issue is also regional in nature thrust of Pak nuclear program threatens heightened tensions or even conflict with India In this connection we welcome Pak initiatives and prospect of Indo-Pak agreement not to attack each other's nuclear facilities However Pak compliance with undertakings to us is a -bilateral issue standing on its own We must have positive ak actions to help convince the Congress to grant another waiver of Symington amendment the sine gua 12 for a follow-on program ' ' SECRE' l' UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED United States Department of State Washington D C 20520 RELEASED IN FULL BRIEFING MEMORANDUM SIS SECRET TO The Secretary THROUGH P - Mr Armacost FROM NEA - Richard SUBJECT Your July 16 Lunch at the Department and your July 17 meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Mohammad Khan Junejo Presidential Suite Madison Hotel 10 00 to 11 00 a m T w Murphy ' I PRIME MINISTER JUNEJO o Domesti C politician new to foreign affairs Need to use this first us visit to expand Junejo's political stake in US-Pakistan relationship educate him on key US-Pak issues ' o Point to Make --Hope visit opens new areas for US-Pakistan cooperation possible Peace corps program for teachers of English new extradition treaty technology transfer memorandum of understanding strengthened reilitary cooperation 0 i II US-PAKISTAN RELATIONS o Relations solid on parallel course re most major issues o Our multi-year assistance programs agreed in 1981 and 1986 ior $3 2 and $4 02 billion respectively r flect shared interests and the firmness of the US commitment which together are the keystone of relationship --we cooperate to deny Soviets further inroads in South and Southwest Asia and to reduce Soviet role in India --we both support improved Indo-Pak relations nd increased regional cooperation in South Asia SECRET DECL OADR UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT @F STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SECRET -2- o Points to make -- US firmly committed to Pakistan's security in face of continuing communist threats attacks terrorism -- We support GOP's efforts to improve ties with India including nuclear dialogue but we worry about allegations of Pak meddling in Punjab - We recommend accelerating pace of economic policy reforms e g 'greater mobilization of domestic resources encourage private sector eliminate subsidies III f ' NUCLEAR o Implementing follow-on aid program requires multi-year waiver of Symington Amendment President must a1so certify annually that Paks do not have a nuclear device that our assistance program •reduces significantly• risk they will o Pakistan ·however continues pursuit of unsafeguarded uranium enrichment and other activities relevant to acquisition of a nuclear explosives capability o Points to make 1 ' -- As the President said US ability to continue aid to Pakistan depends absolutely on Pak nuclear restraint -- Specifically Pakistan must c6rnply with assurances ·it has given on uranium enrichment other sensitive nuclear activities otherwise chance of getting congress to okay new US aid program will be dim at best IV A AFGHANISTAN Policy o Pakistan key to effective policy toward Afghanistan we share ohjectives of soviet withdrawal return of refugees restoration of nonaligned sovereign Afghanistan o Soviet infiexibility at Geneva intensified efforts on ground terrorism in Pakistan show unchanged soviet policy SECRET UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SECRET -3- o US support for Pakistan firm in face of Soviet threats new pressure needed to get USSR to negotiate seriously o President told visiting resistance leaders Afghanistan agreement requires short soviet withdrawal timetable consultations with alliance support of Afghan people o Point to Make -- We applaud Pakistan's principled stand on UN negotiations continued support for Afghan resistance and refugees we agree timetable for Soviet withdrawals must be short 3 months and share your concern over escalation of terrorist bombings cross-border intrusions B Afghanistan Strategy o Junejo committed to hanging tough on Afghanistan but out of sensitivity to political impact of public anxiety re Soviet threat and DRA terrorist attacks has been slow to approve implementation of public aspects of Afghanistan strategy 0 Points to Make ·-- soviet inflexibility at Geneva shows lack of seriousness in seeking settlement we need to step up pressures on the Soviets -- There is growing concern in Administration and congress · about GOP hesitancy on cross-border humanitarian aid Afghan media assistance program strategy to build public image of resistance alliance • --Positive steps on these programs will help induce Sovs to negotiate seriously and help sell Pak aid on the Hill --us ready to move forward in three areas of humanitarian aid namely health education and commodity support --Urge GOP support for active delegation presence at the UN this fall opening alliance offices in New York Jeddah --Urge also substantive involvement of alliance leaders in negotiations President pledged us will keep alliance informed SECRET UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED SECRET -4V NARCOTICS o Opium production· in Pakistan in 1985-6 nearly doubled lapse due to transfer to civilian rule good weather and rising domestic demand for heroin o Junejo and Zia told Ann Wrobleski in June that GOP remains committed to eradication of opium crop INM assessing aerial spraying at GOP reque t 0 Points to make -- Recent doubling of Pakistan's opium production r1s1ng Pak heroin addiction adds to urgency of eradicating crop destroying heroin labs prosecuting major traffickers -- Encouraged by your pledge to Ed Meese and Ann Wrobleski to eradicate all opium production this fall early in growing season · -- Welcome GOP interest in updated extradition treaty possible use of aerial spraying for eradication ready to help assess if spraying technique would work in Pakistan ' Attachment ' Setting and List of Participants I SECRET UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED RELEASED IN FULL ·SECRET SETTING Even though he has been in office for more than a year Prime Minister Junejo is a relative newcomer to the key issues in the US-Pakistan partnership his preoccupation has been mostly domestic i e consolidating of his own power and guiding transition to constitutional government ' ' We view the visit as an opportunity to expand Junejo's political stake in the ongoing US-Pakistan relationship We will accord him the recognition he deserves for his role with Zia in pulling off a peaceful transition from martial law to constitutional government We need to assure him of the steadfastness of the us commitment to Pakistan provided Pakistan understands the absolute requirement for restraint in its nuclear policy we need also to emphasize to him the need to stay close on Afghanistan especially on the negotiations and on the more public aspects of our overall Afghanistan strategy And we will underscore as well the importance of cooperating to stem the flood of illicit narcotics • When you meet with Junejo he will already have heard from the President himself regarding the key nuclear issue Your reiteration of the main points made on this score will help impress on the Prime Minister how seriously this issue can threaten all that we have built and want to build together Your main objective however will be a full discussion of our Afghanistan concerns in advance of the resumption of the Geneva talks on July 30 and a serious reiteration of our concerns regarding illicit narcotics originating in or near Pakistan SECRET DECL OADR UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED RELEASED IN FULL SECRET PARTICIPANTS IN SECRETARY'S JULY 17 MEETING WITH PM JUNEJO U S Pak is tan Secretary Shultz AID Administrator McPherson Under Secretary Armacost Assistant Secretary Murphy Ambassador Hinton Deputy Assistant Secretary Raphel Deputy Assistant Secretary Peck notetaker The Prime Minister Foreign Minister Yaqub Khan Finance Minister Wattoo Ambassador Azim Ambassador-Designate Marker Foreign Secretary Sattar n SECRET DECL UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 OADR UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL PAKISTAN I RELEASED IN FULL INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION PEACEFUL POLITICAL ACTIVITY SO FAR o Transition to 6onstitutional government has been smooth and peaceful martial law lifted end of -1985 --Junejo reorganized Pakistan Muslim League PML as government party National Assembly members key provincial leaders joined • --Juneja wisely has not interfered in increased political activity himself see s public support -- Return of Benazir Bhutto leader of main opposition Pakistan People's Party PPP generated huge crowds but longer-term appeal hard to gauge Most believe she will fail to force new elections by this fall 1 --After years of martial law parties need reorganizing PML lacks grass-roots organization support Bhutto must show control of PPP skill in political maneuver Neither wants new martial law o II Violence possible especially from Islamic right Army likely to intervene only in major national crisis KEY ISSUES o With PML government consolidating power basic problems remain--provincial ethnic and sectarian grievances major underlying social economic strains 0 Deterioration of law and order especially in Northwest Frontier Province NWFP is major worry -- Distribution of modern weapons throughout Pakistan one spillover of Afghanistan war --NWFP bombings by Soviet DRA agents attributed to presence of Afghan refugees causing estrangement and unease between Paks and refugees --In heightened political atmosphere GOP's Afghan policy will be more idely questioned constraining government freedom of action o Bhutto challenge major unknown Lack of Bhutto appeal to traditional elites popular fear of provoking Army favor status quo Showdown unlikely for year or two CONFIDENTIAL DECL OADR UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL RELEASED IN FULL PAKISTAN ECONOMIC POLICY AND REFORM I Background o Economic growth strong in recent years -- Real growth estimated at 6 3 percent for 1985-86 and 8 4 percent previous year record harvests this year o Short-term balance of payments outlook brighter- exports up imports down and workers' remittances again up o Foreign exchange reserves now top $900 million 6 weeks import cover after mid-1985 low of about $400 million 0 Longer term balance of payments outlook remains grim as remittances expected to decline international debt repayment burden grows and trade deficit widens - ' II Economic Policy Reform Efforts o New civilian government recognizes need for reform appears committed to taking some key steps -- GOP gradually implementing recommendations of commission to review needed measures on deregulation but actions deferred on recommendations of tax commission -- Important policy reform steps we had long encouraged have been taken in edible oils fertilizer sectors and in sugar and rice pricing 0 i Major reform efforts still required in key sectors of energy irrigation and fertilizers also in broader area of mobilization of domestic resources III U S Role in Pressing for Greater Reform Efforts ---Applaud steps taken by GOP in key areas of fertilizer edible oils and rice Endorse World Bank and IMF recommendations for reform Encourage greater mobilization of domestic resources and wider implementation of recommendations of GOP taxation and deregulation commissions -- Note linkage we have both affirmed between our follow-on aid program and GOP reform performance CONFIDENTIAL DECL UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 OADR · UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED QtL RELEASED IN FULL SECRE'r US ASSISTANCE TO PAKISTAN I Background o From 1949-1981 us provided more than $6 billion in economic and security assistance to Pakistan o Current $3 2 billion program FY82-87 split evenly between economic and security assistance centerpiece of security assistance was FMS purchase of 40 F-16s economic focus on energy agriculture and population programs o $4 02 billion follow-on program FY88-93 57% economic aid recommends more favorable terms economic aid all grant security assistance all concessional II Assistance Issues 0 --Multi-year waiver of Symington needed in 1981 to launch current program justified as response to Soviet invasion of Afghanistan Pak nuclear program continues will require renewed waiver for FY88-93 aid program -- we are also required to certify each year that Paks do not possess nuclear device and that our aid significantly reduces risk they will acquire one • ' _ All assistance cut off in April 1979 as Pak nuclear activities triggered provisions of Symington Amendment 0 Paks told ability to achieve full funding depends also on GOP responsiveness to USG concerns over Pak narcotics control efforts economic policy reform o Gramm-Rudman sequester cut $25 million from FY86 request level for Pakist n Paks f ar FY82-87 program will fall short of committed funding level III USG positions o Reaffirm long-term commitment to P kistan's security in the face of increasing Soviet threats USG commitment to seek full funding for assistance program re ret unable restore any Gramm-Rudman FY86 cuts o Impress on GOP that very continuation of our assistance relationship depends on their restraint in nuclear area important link also between full funding and narcotics control economic reform SECRET DECL UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 OADR UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED RELEASED IN FULL SECRET SENSITIVE PAKISTAN NUCLEAR ISSUE I NUCLEAR ISSUE POSES MAJOR PROBLEM FOR u s -PAKISTAN RELATIONS o In order to provide security assistance we must now certify annually that Pakistan does not posess a nuclear device and that our aid will reduce this risk o Continuation of U S as·sistance beyond FY87 will require Congressional renewal of authority to waive the Symington amendment II DESPITE STRONG U S CONCERN PAKISTAN CONTINUES TO PURSUE ·A NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVES CAPABILITY 0 If operated at its nominal capacity the Kahuta uranium enrichment plant could produce enough weapons-grade material to build several nuclear devices per year o Our assessment remains however that Pakistan does not posess a nuclear device 0 The GOP denies that it is engaged in any weapons-related activities and insists that its nuclear program is strictly peaceful · III U S POLICY HAS SOUGHT PAKISTANI RESTRAINT AND A REGIONAL NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME 0 We have repeatedly told the GOP that restraint in the nuclear area is an essential precondition for our security rela ionship o At the same time we have urged both India and Pakistan to explore confidence-building measures and other steps towards a regional non-proliferation regime o Pakistan has offered to sign the NPT or to take other far-reaching non-proliferation steps provided India does likewise India has rejected these proposals citing long-standing opposition to the NPT but so far · has not put forward its own proposal In December the two sides agreed in principle not to attack each others's nuclear facilities SECRET SENSITIVE DECL OADR UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL FACT SHEET I RELEASED IN FULL NARCOTICS CONTROL · NARCOTICS PRODUCTION o Opium poppy production increased substantially during 1985-86 growing season Opium production had dropped sharply since 1979 in part because of GOP efforts at crop substitution and eradication programs The opium crop doubled from 40-70 metric tons in 1984-85 to 100-150 metric tons in 1985-86 Contributing factors include government officials' preoccupation with the lifting of martial law better estimating techniques improved weather conditions and high opium prices o n ' II Pakistan probably remains a net importer of opium from Afghanistan and Iran because of tremendous growth in domestic consumption of heroin a drug unknown to Pakistani addicts only five years ago ENFORCEMENT EFFORTS o GOP ebforcement efforts met with resistance in 1986 eradication campaign begun late in growing season February was halted after violent confrontation with farmers 13 civilians and enforcement officers died · With return to civilian government public education programs essential to build political support In past GOP enforcement efforts limited to INM AID or UN Fund for Drug Abuse Control UNFDAC development project areas o current USG priorities include GOP commitment to poppy suppression throughout growing areas not just where development programs underway Firm GOP commitment to begin poppy eradication efforts immediately after cultivation in fall and announcement of intentions well beforehand to give farmers time to plant alternative drops Use of aerial and or hand-held spraying ·at recent US-GOP narcotics working group meeting Paks expressed interest in US assistance which would be available New assets seizure legislation Indo-Pak cooperation to stop cross-border trafficking UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 CONFIDENTIAL DECL OADR UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED oJo RELEASED IN FULL SECRET AFGHANISTAN - THE STATE OF THE WAR I THE PARTICIPANTS AND RECENT TRENDS o Soviet 40th Army 120 000 men carries the combat burden with support from Turkestan other Soviet military districts o DRA forces 80-90 000 including army and police are poorly trained and equipped largely unreliable goals are unrealistic o Mujahidin 150 000 full part-time holding their own do best with small unit operations but lack air defenses and medical care Morale is high group cooperation improving 0 Gradual Soviet improvements feature new systems and only modest growth in manpower 0 Now 5 000 Soviet Spetsnaz SPF in country Often effective but lack numbers and good intelligence 0 soviet DRA can move at will in the country but lack capability and numbers to hold territory outside cities o In early '86 DRA took combat lead but recent sweep along border at Ali Kheyl was largely Soviet operation o Loss of insurgent base at Zhawar in May was temporary setback mujahidin now back and rebuilding o soviet DRA cross-border air ground fire violations into Pakistan in 1 86 now 450 way up over 1 85 250 o F-16 shootdown of DRA jet May 17 shows Pakistan's resolve More such air battles likely along the frontier ·O ' · Higher manpower II PROGNOSIS AND KEY PROBLEMS o soviet costs e g 20 000 WIA 10 000 KIA 600 aircraft ·1ost not very burdensome no real domestic war opposition o However present level of Soviet commitment cannot seal borders against infiltration or defeat mujahidi o DRA remains anathema to most Afghans and cannot stand on its own without direct soviet military backing o Widespread and popularly supported insurgency makes control difficult but fierce tribal rivalries impede anti-regime cooperation j I i UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 SECRET DECL OADR UNCLASSIFIED 1 I UNCLASSIFIED RELEASED IN FULL SECRET AFGHANISTAN - GENEVA NEGOTIATIONS o The seventh round of UN-sponsored proximity talks which recessed May 23 addressed for the first time the substance of Cordovez' draft instrument IV which covers inter alia soviet troop withdrawal -- o Although progress was made on such issues as the legal nature of instrument IV and its interrelationship with the other elements of an agreement the parties remain far apart on the central issue of a timetable for Soviet troop withdrawal --The Pakistanis ca-tegor ically rejected the sovi et DRA timetable proposal as no basis for negotiations and reiterated that the timeframe must be a matter of months not years --cordovez's urgings notwithstanding Paks refused to continue discussion of other elements-of instrument IV in the absence of a more reasonable timetable proposal · o ' o Despite differences on this and other key issues such as the nature of a monitoring mechanism and consultations with the resistance and refugees both Pakistan and the DRA soviets continue to find participation in the talks politically expedient They have agreed to resume discussions in the proximity format on July 30 • o The Pakistanis and US want an effective UN-led monitoring mechanism with the ability to report objectively and investigate alleged violations the soviet DRA side is insisting on some form of toothless bilateral consultations which could serve to legitimate the Kabul regime o Future resistance role in the negotiations is unclear Cordovez has given little consideration to substantive -consultations with the resistance GOP briefings of the Alliance have been perfunctory at best The resistance claims never to have been shown the texts of the draft instruments --We have urged both Cordovez and the GOP to involve the alliance more seriously at least through regular in-depth consultations on the details and direction of the talks --Under Secretary Armacost took the opportunity of the Afghan resistance alliance visit to the us to brief the resistance leaders on the content and status of th UN talks o Cordovez seeks to wrap up all outstanding elements of instrument lV except withdrawal timetable at July session SECRET DECL OADR UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L DARIS DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 0EF'ARTMENT OF STATE BRIEFING F'AF'ER RELEASED IN FULL LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAKISTAN · PUBLIC OPINION ON US USSR Pakistanis Distrust Both u s and USSR But Prefer o s Majorities of Pakistanis distrust the friendship of both the United States 63 and the Soviet Union 75% according to results of a February 1986 nationwide survey Moreover they believe the USSR to be a greater threat to Pakistan than traditional rival India by a ratio of two-to-one 49%-to-23% N ' - However although a plurality 54% opt for neutrality vis-a-vis the U S and USSR those with a preference favor American over Soviet friendship by a ratio of three-to-one 35%-to-11% • support Remains High for U S Aid Widespread distrust of American friendship does not prevent solid majorities of Pakistanis from supporting Pakistan's receiving military 63% and economic 70% aid from the United States This support continues a trend observed in surveys since 1981 • Pakistanis Widely Favor Develoement of Own Atom Bomb Although Pakistani President Zia has publicly denied any intent on the part of the GOP to develop nuclear weapons the large majority of Pakistanis 87% believe that Pakistan should •make an a tom bomb • The Pakistani public's support for their country's development of nuclear weapons capability no doubt springs in large part from fear of India's nuclear power capability half 53% said that India would use nuclear weapons against Pakistan in an Indo-Pakistani war More Se Drug Use than Trafficking as Pak Problem · The vast majority 89% believed that use of heroin and opium is a problem in Pakistan according to a May 1985 survey But only half 50% were aware of Pakistan's role as a major site of production and trafficking Most favored Pakistani government action to stop the use 87% trafficking 87% and production 86% of heroin and opium in Pakistan July 14 1986 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT F STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY CHARLES L TED OFFICIAL USE DATE CASE ID 16 MAY 2011 200806822 J WtttS UNCLASSIFIED -e5cc £ PAKISTAN - AT A GLANCE 0 0 Growth strong but budget deficit up VJ Real growth in fiscal year ended June 30 1985 at 8 4 percent estimate for 1985-86 fiscal year at 6 3 percent Record harvests after poor crop year in 84 85 0 Budget deficit high as domestic resource mobilization continues weak 0 VJ VJ 0 j VJ VJ Balance of payments improved but longer-term outlook precarious Remittances exports up imports down u u FX reserves up to more than 900 million six weeks import cover after last summer's low of less than $400 million $ $ Longer-term outlook grim as remittances unlikely to increase while trade deficit likely to widen 0 New civilian government has taken some important but tentative steps on economic policy reform · New Finance Minister first non-technocrat in a decade appears committed to economic policy reform Recent reform steps in edible oil and fertilizer sectors are encouraging major reform efforts still needed however especially for greater domestic resource mobilizati9n rr o rr es o r ' fa z fa s r ' N Uu z GOP agreed as part of follow-on aid package to annual US-GOP meetings to review our assistance program and their progress on economic policy reform ' J O'I z 9 rriOo S r ' Urri rr S u rr -- rr r ' - r ' d r o ' n - 1 V V I U u £ O' c C ECONOMIC DATA CHART - Pakistan Revised 7 7 86 z 1 ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1982 83 89 l 4 29 325 16 1 0 r J 0 r J r J 5u $ la lb le ld le lf lg lh P6pulation mid-year million Official Unemployment Rate percent Gross National Product $ billion l GNP Per Capita $ 1 Investment GNP Ratio percent 1 Real GDP Percent change 1 Real GDP Per Capita percent change l Inflation Rate percent 1 2 FISCAL INDICATORS · 2a • Public Sector Revenues as percent of GNP 1 2b Public Sector Expenditures as pct of GNP l 2c Public Sector Balance as percent of GNP l 6 2 3 1 4 7 1983 84 91 9 4 30 7 334 15 7 3 4 0 3 8 6 16 0 23 6 1984 85 E 94 7 4 30 8 325 16 2 8 4 5 3 0 7 3 6 9 17 5 24 2 6 1 182 7 812 2 267 6 1092 5 1041 6 2 6 2 7 2 4 5 6 6 0 6 1 - 3 0 3 3 1 0 - 3 7 r J 16 5 25 2 r J 5u 8 2 3 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 3a Exports to us $ million calendar year 3b Imports from US $ million calendar year 3c Total Exports $ billion 1 3d Total Imports $ billion 1 3e Merchandise Trade Balance $ billion 1 3f current Account ·Balance $ bi Ilion 1 - 0 6 s 298 9 - 1 8 r J'1 N E- 4a 4b 4c 4d 4e Gross External Debt $ billion 1 Gross External Debt per capita $ 1 Debt Service Paid $ billion 1 Debt Service as percent of exports 1 Gross Debt as percent of GNP 1 5 us BILATERAL AID by U S Fiscal Year Sa Ebonomic Assistance $ million Sb Military assistance $ million l r J'1 ' IC 4 EXTERNAL DEB'r 10 9 119 13 3 149 • 986 734 12 5 132 28 37 1 04 43 46 36 41 FY84 275 300 8 FY85 309 325 97 FY83 250 260 8 or 1'1 E- Z N UN E F'fll 3 45 3M SSQ E- r J'1 -- 1 Pakistan Fiscal Year July 1-June 30 2 Jan-June E- E-