r u EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE MIGHTY DERRINGER AIMS Field DocuNent Classification SNSI NOFOR • 024 FroPt AssessMent D McMaster Standard Distribution To Subject EXERCISE EX Page Date 12 07 86 1 TiMe 0530 Priority Background · ' f J • • 1 of I I · Status Montrev Forces Defense Intelligence Agency reporting has indicated that all Montrevian ground forces ar located 750 rliles to the south in the capital city of Montrev City Further their vehicle lift capability is very liMited All segMents of their arPted forces reportedly suffer froM poor Maintenance and a lack of equipMent There is no reporting frol'l the DIA to indicate that there are any Montrevian Military forces in the area of the incident site The only possible exception to this is the special brigade which has not beer reported in its hol' e area for sorie days It is also reportedly in isolation and preparing for a special Mission El Jeff e h s stated that he has a large nuNber of troops in the il'll'lediat€ are of the incident site He has control of a large nuMber of Military -vehicles whi-ch he plans to use to assist in the evacuation of a I arge city near the incident site ' END DOCUMENT EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE MIGHTY DERRINGER EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE f1- c co s - F l - E D -- --- -- ----- IsE EXERCISE MIGHTY D E R R I EXERCISE PAGE 2 OF 3 ' s to be ignored wi hout d i s t o r l t i M a t e conclusions The threat s real its author is dedicated is prepared to die for hi cause and present a siMilarly dedicated group but evidences significant lner bilities which can be exploi ed to our advantage -- ationa le b 1 3ince the device kno1 m to ex 1st to Montrev is singularly r issing froM the t hreat of this Message it is likely that the author does not know that we ave discovered his other device and that he intended that device as his ··ach i n ·the hale or perhaps as deMonstration of his resolve It is iMportan·t thlt de rot ive this advesary the advantage of the inforMaion that we are in ontrol of this device e can expect that the author of this Message will be sensitive to indicatio s 'subterfuge There are Many indications that he has the characteristics ---- 1f 4ERCISE EXERCISE F AGE 3 OF 3 the paranoid personality He can be expected to behave as if he were psychopathically indifferent to the suffering of his aneMies wheri in fact is religion and his nature Make hiM quite eMpathetic to the suffering of 1 hers Dece '1•1b1 r 9 deadline for pa yl'lent of the ranso1'l der and is efftii'ely onsistent with the presuMed detonation date of DeceMbor 10 if the negotiation • ere to fail HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT THE AUTHOR OF THIS THREAT TIH MAY RECEIVE INFORMATION WHICH INDICATES THAT HIS MONTREV DEVICE HAS BEEN DISCOVERED HE MAY MOVE THE DEADLINE TO AN EARLIER DATE AT ANY TIME THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS OR DISCLOSURES REGARDING THE MONTREV EST OPERATION ANY SUCH DISCLOSURE WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ALERT THE THEATENERf ND ALMOST CERTAINLY RESULT IN MOVING THE DEADLINE FORWARD IN TIME 1 Jl ERATIOJ Jt- L CREDIBILITY By T ' SP1i·th 3UMMARY CONCLUSIONS fhe threat is real with a Moderate deqree of confidence iona I bi 1 EMARKS AND OBSERVATIONS bl 1 'l f• • l· I P $1 I ti' - I· • -· r