'r ' • • ·• • ' I ' r • I • • • • r • ' • I Declassified in Part tT6 r ' Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R00150003 Declassified in Part Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R00150003 0 NGE8D Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Secret 25X1 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Special Report Mexico Challenges For The New Governnient DSB FILE COPY RETUHfl TO lE-61 DOCUMENT SERVICES BRANCH FILE COPY DO NOT DESTROY Secret N 671 15 January 1971 No 0353 71B Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 MEXICO CHALLEI IGES FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT On 1 December 1970 Mexico's political system completed another cycle with Luis Echeverria Alvarez accepting the reins of power from outgoing preesident Gustavo Diaz Ordaz The smooth transfer of power again demonstrates that Mexico's design for success as a nation so elusive for many of its southern neighbors remains relevant as it has since the dust settled from the revolution begun in 1910 25X6 President Echeverria's ability to cope with the demanding problems thJt refuse to stay in the backqround will depend heavily on his judgment and style over the next six years I I The exh1laI rating pace he has set in his first weeks in office suggests however that he considers himself equal to the task before him if anyone is Hard Facts Behind the Dazzle Mexico's er onomic achievement and political stability are the envy of Latin America but behind the glitter and boom lurk serious problems The prosperity that has come to much of Mexico testifies to the over-all success of policies aimed at financial stab ii ity high investment levels the promotion of both industry and agriculture and the expansion of exports and tourism Moreover the government has spent large portions of its budget on health education and social welfare Frequently however social and political illnesses requiring miracle drugs have been treated figuratively speaking only with aspirin Like other more advanced societies Mexico is finding it very difficult to spread economic gains widely and otherwise meet the needs of a rapidly growing increasingly urbanized population Many children still have no schooling available to them and most of those in school do not finish six Special Report 25X6 25X6 25X63 grades Rural poverty is for several millions as intense as or worse than it was before the Revolution despite an unusually good record of growth in agricultural production A slum that developed east of Mexico City infamous as the largest single slum in the Western Hemisphere is now incorporated as Ciudad Netzahualcoytl the fourth largest city in Mexico It is only now in the process cf installing electricity and still has no public water st pply Mexico too is learning that the luxury anci convenience of technology are mixed blessings-the beautiful setting of Mexico City overlooked by the twin peaks of Popocatepetl and lxtaccihuatl is no longer visible because of the smog As a result political forms that served well in the past are unacceptable to today's politically aware Mexican whose dissent is becoming more and more of a problem for the government The grudge against the haves by the have nots is building to a point where the unity of the official 1 15 January 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 C ONFIDENTIAL 25X1 UNITED STATES MEXICO Houston -' 300 1 MILES 1 l' WM i ' CI l'ACIFIC OC 0 N GUA 550820 I 71 Special Report -2- 15 January 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 25X6 25X6 25X6 party-frequently cited as the key to stability-is in ieopardy T11e Pl'Oblem of Political Values Among the many and disparate problems that might come to a head at any time the erosion of political consensus could perhaps have the earliest repercussions The government-party complex has shown a genius for syncretizing conflicting tendencies and for oiling squeaking wheels Over the years however the system has grown less and less responsive to all but the few orivileqed interest qrouos I I I I I I Young and well-educated Mexicans in particular believe that the elaborate system of political controls is outmoded and that the imposition of political power from above is no longer acceptable The desire for rapid movement toward reform democratic processes and decentralization is strong in this minority element Increasing criticism seems to have resulted in a further rigidifying of the system The governing lnst Lutional Revolutionary Party PRI has lost its flexibility with age and its sensitivity to the political winds has deteriorated The party now appears more interested in quashing dissent than in absorbing critics into the system The PRI has experimented with liberalization in recent years and found it increasingly dangerous The diminished control for the political bosses at all echelons implicit in recognizing popular will created an uproar in the party and threatened disunity I Special Report -3- 15 January 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 The Revolution Gap LOokl More Pomogrnphy 7 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 25X6 opposition groups continue to be thrown together with the radicals There already has been some alliance of unlikely bedfellows principally on ad hoc issues The PAN and liberal members of the Roman Catholic Church hierarchy have associated with the virulently antigovernment press and with the Communist-dominated organization for the liberation of political prisoners This ·group was formed after the 1968 student disturbances with the aim of freeing students and professors still in ja ii Involvement by Roman Catholic clerics and high officials with leftist causes is particularly sensitive in Mexico where church-state conflict has been the cause of much bloodshed through the years Certain liberal Catholic organizations and personages have become increasingly controversial and continued political activism on their part might eventually lead to a government crackdown Extremists Search for Respectability As far as extremist opposition goes Mexico has been lucky in having drawn a sorry lot of lower case Revolutionaries The government exercises its muscles fairly regularly on them with or without cause Some of the leaders of the Mexican Communist Party PCM are at any given time incarcerated more often than not for a crime committed by someone else The government's persecution of the PCM however is probably the Communists' biggest asset in claiming to be semirespected active revolutionaries The PCM and the extreme left in general historically have been weak and divided and remain so today Numerous small' bands of Maoists Castroites and others engage in irregular sabotage and small-scale terrorism but they never have had significant effect on the political scene beyond sharpening the army's internal security capability The government's insulation from extremist pressure may decline however if legitimate Special Report The bishop of Cuernavaca Sergio Mendez Arceo is a likely candidate for official wrath Mendez has been very active on the political prisoner issue and his visits to the infamous Lecumberri prison have helped publicize the cause of the l _ __ f 'I Bishop Mendez Arceo being interviewed outside Lecumberri Prision -5- 15 January 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 scores of persons in jail from the 1968 student riots and of those who have been held for much longer periods for political crimes National University focal point of political dissent During the presidential campaign last year the bishop advocated a re-examination by the new administration of the laws governing churchstate relations Mendez claimed the laws were contrary to the UN exposition on human rights and argued that they have led to extralegal accommodations that perpetuate civic immaturity and disrespect for law The bishop's exposure of the church's illegal though tolerated activity including the operation of schools with religious faculties the presence of foreign clergy and property holding could become an embarrassment that Echeverria cannot afford to ignore To date cooperation between the clergy and other respectable groups with radical elements is cool low key and informal The very fact that contacts have been established nevertheless points up the potential for an unorgani2 ed spontaneous alliance against the governmtlnt should another major crisis akin to the 1968 student massacra occur divisive factor within the left Not incidentally it has provoked a much tougher government attitude toward the students and the left generally Still to the opposition of all types the student movement opened up the possibility that the government may be losing its grip and that it might falter again Soft Spots The New Preside It The extreme left viewed the student disturbances in 1968-which came uncomfortably close to ruining Mexico's sponsorship of the summer Olympics-as one of the most hopeful events in years After agitating for more than ten years with no visible effect on such questions as the release of political prisoners and the abolition of a penal code article making the vaguely defined act of social dissolution·• a crime the left was able to generate mass rallier in support of these very demands The left welcomed the tarnishing of the image of Mexican stability the temporary exhibition of uncertainty on the government's part and the national and international attention Typically however although temporarily an emotionally unifying force the student movement upon collapse has ber ome yet another Sp cial Report Traditionally at the beginning of a MP xican administration all sectors test the tolerance and strength of tf-ie new president That such a will to probe Echeverria in this manner exists is beyond doubt 25X6 25X6 As minister of government under '--ro -- - ------- --'cheverria shares heavily in the blame for the most unfortunate incident under the last administration-the government's final smashing of the student movement on 2 October' 1968 an event known as the massacre of Tlatelolco Developments at that time widened the gap between the government and the people as no event has since the Revolution and the full consequences of the massacre probably have not yet b' len rea Ii zed -6- 15 January 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Mexico's Dynamic New President Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 C ONFIDENTIAL 25X1 Echeverria displayed remarkable vigor and dynamism during his arduous presidential campaign and even in his first weeks as president His willingness to make himself available to all groups and sectors has probably reduced somewhat the animosity initially engendered by his nomination Even so he has given little reason for optimism that political controls will be loosened In his first month President Echeverria proposed a sweeping new agrarian reform law and otherwise has focused primarily on economic and social problems and on bureaucratic reform He has kept up the hectic pace he set in the most vigorous and far-flung presidential campaign the country had ever witnessP cJ In every way he has the look of a leider whose mark in his time will ba pronounced As the activist leader of a large complex society that has outgrown its framework Echeverria might preside over significant nationill events be they a constructive overhaul of the political system or a political explosion Although he has some reason to be ba iically optimistic about prospects duririg his t rm Echeverria has been unusually frank about Mexico's shortcoming particulc1 ·ly in the economic and social sphi ire A number of public statements in the first weeks of the new government pointed up the need for more egalitarian economic and social policies Indeed new taxes directed at the wealthy class Echeverria's 11creased attention to rural problems and a populist attitude in other matters have created an incipient fear in some quarters that the President in an apparent desire to be a man of the people may become demagogic Al hough it is too early to tell his new departures could backfire by creating greater expectations than he ot anyone else could fu 1fill Echeverria's impact even during the first years of his term should provide a helpful clue as to whether Mexico's luck is running out If he can stem the rising dissatisfaction with thP- hypocrisies of ber cin authoritarianism rnd defuse issues such as the olitical prisoner problem-unlikely but Special Report not impossible in view of Mexico's long tradition of landing on its feet-he can probably preserve the facade of a Revolutionary family from which more and more Mexicans are feeling themselves alienated US-Mexican Relations President Echeverria's all-out effort even before his inauguration to establish working contacts with top US officials and with US businessmen holds the promise of another good era of US-Mexican relations Echeverria's strong but realistic nationalism gives him a clear understanding of the overwhelming importance of the United States to Mexico and he intends this special relationship to be an asset rather than a problem Mexican-US trade and US investment are of prime interest to Echeverria He has stressed a deske to bring the most modern technology into Mexico and to continue the flow of ir vestment but he wants closer control over the conditions under ·• hich both operate Although some p0tential investors may be inclined to wait for some of the early effects of the administration's fiscal reform this segment will probably not be signifiC-' t t In the past Mexico lias pl iced more sfr n gent conditiom on foreigr inve tment than ma y other Latin American countries but inveskrs have continued to flock there beo1 1se of 110litical security good labor and increasing markets No basic change in the investment climate is yet apparent The most obvious points of friction between Mexico and the US relate to US domestic interests US labor unions are openly opposed to Mexican border industries although the yovernrnents of both countries want the industries to expand US agricultural interests sensitive to market competition will be on a collision course with Mexican interests if the Echeverria government aggrassively promotes Mexican exports to the US Echeverria also may be under pressure bncause of demands at home for Mexicanization of •8 - 15 January 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6 CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 industries such as food processing which is a notorious example of US control of Me ican enterprise Another contentious issue is that of choice land in resort areas now illegally in the hands of US citizens The excessive salinity of the Colorado River is a long-standing problem that Echeverria has specifically promised will be solved during his term appreciation should take the form of special privileges for Mexico The apparent lack of concern in the US for Mexico's basic welfare as seen by Mexicans in such incidents as the misfiring of Athena missiles into Mexican territory on two occasions is a bitter pill for Mexico Many Mexicans believe that the US purposely designed the missile range so that in case of an overtire the mbsile would land in Mexico where it would not really matter Echeverria's open friendliness to the United States will raise a certain level of predictable criticism in Mexico The previous government was subjected to severe criticism by the extreme left which is chronically suspicious of a sellout to the northern colossus Even with in the government as in Mexico generally distrust of and antagonism to the United States is common An internal political crisis in Mexico could also soark lat£int anti-Americanism The US is the first devil sought both by radicals who think US support reinforces the status quo c nd by some in the establishment who suspect US agents are behind agitation and dissent An unpopular crackdown on dissenters by security forces using US-made equipment wo1 ld involve the US in the incident for example US-Mexican relations are most likely to continue excellent if 'Echeverria becomes an admired popular and effective president at home 1 Echeverria's per onality suggests that hi wil react more harshly than his predecessor to real or imagined grievances against the United States Like Diaz Ordaz however he thinks the US should be grateful to Mexico for providing a secure southern flank and that the US expression of j I 25X1 Special Report -9- • 'i January 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012 06 22 CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030002-6