Stenographic Transcript Before the COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES UNITED STATES SENATE HEARING TO RECEIVE TESTIMONY ON WORLDWIDE THREATS Tuesday May 10 2022 Washington D C ALDERSON COURT REPORTING 1111 14TH STREET NW SUITE 1050 WASHINGTON D C 20005 202 289-2260 www aldersonreporting com 1 1 HEARING TO RECEIVE TESTIMONY ON WORLDWIDE THREATS 2 3 Tuesday May 10 2022 4 5 U S Senate 6 Committee on Armed Services 7 Washington D C 8 9 The committee met pursuant to notice at 9 30 a m in 10 Room SD-G50 Dirksen Senate Office Building Hon Jack Reed 11 chairman of the committee presiding 12 Committee Members Present Senators Reed presiding 13 Shaheen Gillibrand Blumenthal Kaine King Warren 14 Peters Manchin Rosen Kelly Inhofe Wicker Fischer 15 Cotton Rounds Ernst Tillis Sullivan Cramer Scott 16 Blackburn and Hawley 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 2 1 2 3 OPENING STATEMENT OF HON JACK REED U S SENATOR FROM RHODE ISLAND Chairman Reed Good morning The committee meets 4 today to receive testimony on the worldwide threats facing 5 the United States and our international partners 6 I would like to welcome Director of National 7 Intelligence Avril Haines and Director of the Defense 8 Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Scott D Berrier 9 Thank you both for joining us and please convey the 10 committee's gratitude to the men and women of the 11 Intelligence Community for their critical work 12 We must start by addressing the illegal war Vladimir 13 Putin is waging in Ukraine 14 Russia's unprovoked aggression has inflicted horrific 15 suffering upon innocent civilians in Ukraine threatened 16 European security and caused serious consequences for the 17 global economy 18 Ukrainian military has performed tremendously supported by 19 the United States and the international community 20 formidable array of our global allies and partners have 21 joined in solidarity to impose severe sanctions on Russia 22 and provide support to Ukraine 23 scale and importance of this unity 24 25 Over the past 2 1 2 months In the face of this senseless violence the A We cannot overstate the I want to commend the Biden administration and the leaders of the Intelligence Community for the unprecedented Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 3 1 and skillful release of intelligence over the last several 2 months that exposed Russia's aggressive intentions and 3 deceitful activities ahead of its invasion of Ukraine 4 Intelligence officials are understandably cautious about 5 revealing hard-won insights on adversaries but this 6 strategy has proven highly effective in strengthening the 7 international community's response and creating dilemmas for 8 Vladimir Putin 9 effectively in the information domain and I hope we will 10 continue to make use of this kind of creative tradecraft 11 This is a great example of competing With that in mind Russia's strategy in Ukraine seems 12 to be evolving 13 ask for your assessment of the Ukraine conflict in the 14 larger context of the evolving international order as well 15 as the implications for the United States' approach to 16 security in the European theater going forward 17 Director Haines General Berrier I would We must also stay focused on our long-term strategic 18 competition with China 19 socio-political growth China has studied the United States' 20 way of war and focused on offsetting our advantages 21 Beijing has made concerning progress in this regard and 22 holds its own expansive geostrategic ambitions 23 speak China is watching how the nations of the world 24 respond to Russia 25 Taiwan President Xi is scrutinizing Putin's playbook and Trustpoint One Alderson In addition to its economic and As we In considering a potential invasion of www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 4 1 2 the international response However there is broad consensus that our comparative 3 advantage over China is our network of partners and allies 4 in the region and globally 5 should be at the center of any strategy for the Indo-Pacific 6 region and the maturation of the Quadrilateral Security 7 Dialogue or Quad involving the United States Japan 8 India and Australia presents a strategic opportunity to 9 establish a durable framework 10 Strengthening that network I would ask our witnesses to share what military and 11 non-military factors are most likely to impact Chinese 12 decision-making with respect to potential action against 13 Taiwan 14 Turning to Iran in the 4 years since then-President 15 Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 16 or JCPOA Iran has made key nuclear advances 17 decreased breakout time to several weeks from a year 18 under the agreement 19 60 percent instead of just under 4 percent allowed under 20 the agreement 21 replaced damaged equipment with more advanced models 22 while negotiations to return Iran to the JCPOA are in the 23 final stages the final outcome has not yet been determined 24 25 It has It has increased uranium enrichment to Iran has hardened its infrastructure and And Beyond its nuclear advances Iran and Iranian proxies continue to mount drone and rocket attacks in the region Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 5 1 including against bases in Iraq and Syria with a U S 2 military presence 3 Arab Emirates have also come under attack Director Haines 4 given these current dynamics I would like your thoughts on 5 how to best de-escalate tensions with Iran while preserving 6 space to return to the JCPOA 7 Saudi Arabia and now also the United Finally this year's threat assessment again highlights 8 the challenges posed by environmental degradation from 9 climate change I understand it is the DNI's view that 10 climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to U S 11 national security interests as issues like rising 12 temperatures poor water governance pollution changing 13 precipitation patterns and other climate effects are likely 14 to lead to an array of human challenges such as food and 15 water insecurity and threats to human health 16 We live in a complex and dangerous global security 17 environment 18 influence in the Indo-Pacific to countless other malign 19 actors around the world prevailing in this environment will 20 require resolute thoughtful strategies 21 22 23 From Russia's aggression in Europe to China's I look forward to our witnesses' insights into these issues and I thank them again for their participation Let me now turn to the ranking member Senator Inhofe 24 25 Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 6 1 2 STATEMENT OF HON JAMES INHOFE U S SENATOR FROM OKLAHOMA 3 4 Senator Inhofe Thank you Mr Chairman I join you in welcoming our witnesses 5 When our witnesses testified before this committee last 6 year they provided a dire assessment of the threats to our 7 national security 8 overstate this the security situation we face today is 9 significantly more dangerous and complex than it has ever It is clear and I really cannot 10 been or certainly was a year ago 11 beyond anything we ever dealt with before 12 Beijing announced a 7 1 percent defense budget increase 13 They have had two decades of real growth with no signs of 14 slowing down and as the chairman alluded to Putin's 15 unprovoked aggression against Ukraine shows the danger posed 16 by the nuclear-armed Russia to our security those of our 17 allies and international order 18 The Chinese threat is This year Iran's malign behavior continues throughout the Middle 19 East and terrorist groups like ISIS and al Qaeda are 20 growing in strength across Africa 21 President Biden's budget request is inadequate 22 deliver the real growth the military needs and that is the 23 3 to 5 percent increase that we established some 5 years 24 ago 25 sequestration that we consider today and it is making Despite this reality It does not And as I have said it before inflation is the new Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 7 1 2 everything we do more difficult So I look forward to hearing from both of you about how 3 our threats have evolved ever since last year and how the 4 Intelligence Community is changing to respond to the 5 national security strategy Thank you Mr Chairman 6 Chairman Reed 7 Now let me recognize Director Haines Thank you very much Senator Inhofe 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 8 1 STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE AVRIL HAINES DIRECTOR OF 2 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE 3 Ms Haines Thank you very much Chairman Reed 4 Ranking Member Inhofe and members of the committee 5 you for the opportunity to speak with you today and to 6 provide testimony alongside General Berrier on the 7 intelligence community's annual assessment of worldwide 8 threats to U S national security 9 Thank Before I start I just want to take a moment to publicly 10 thank the men and women of the Intelligence Community for 11 their extraordinary work to keep us safe 12 privileged I am to be part of this community of truly 13 talented people to be given a chance to do something useful 14 in service to my country and I thank you for support for 15 their work 16 I know how Broadly speaking this year's assessment focuses much 17 like last year's assessment on adversaries and competitors 18 critical transnational threats and conflicts and 19 instability and these categories often overlap 20 Cybercrime for example is a transnational threat while 21 also being a threat that emanates from state actors 22 the key challenges of this era is assessing how various 23 threats and trends are likely to intersect so as to identify 24 where their interactions may result in fundamentally greater 25 risk to our interests than one might otherwise expect or Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com One of 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 9 1 where they introduce new opportunities 2 Threat Assessment highlights some of these connections as it 3 provides the IC's baseline of the most pressing threats to 4 U S national security 5 This year's Annual The assessment starts with threats from key state 6 actors beginning with the People's Republic of China which 7 remains an unparalleled priority for the Intelligence 8 Community and then turns to Russia Iran and North Korea 9 All four governments have demonstrated the capability and 10 intent to promote their interests in ways that cut against 11 U S and allied interests 12 The PRC is coming ever closer to being a peer 13 competitor in areas of relevance to national security is 14 pushing to revise global norms and institutions to its 15 advantage and is challenging the United States in multiple 16 arenas -- economically militarily and technologically 17 China is especially effective at bringing together a 18 coordinated whole-of-government approach to demonstrated 19 strength and to compel neighbors to acquiesce to its 20 preference including its territorial and maritime claims 21 and assertions of sovereignty over Taiwan 22 A key area of focus for the IC is President Xi 23 Jinping's determination to force unification with Taiwan on 24 Beijing's terms 25 that avoids armed conflict and it has been stepping up Trustpoint One Alderson China would prefer coerced unification www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 10 1 diplomatic economic and military pressure on the island 2 for years to isolate it and weaken confidence in its 3 democratically elected leaders 4 Beijing is prepared to use military force if it decides this 5 is necessary 6 And at the same time The PRC is also engaged in the largest-ever nuclear 7 force expansion and arsenal diversification in its history 8 It is working to match or exceed U S capabilities in space 9 and presents the broadest most active and persistent cyber 10 espionage threat to U S government and private sector 11 networks 12 And Russia of course also remains a critical priority 13 and is a significant focus right now in light of President 14 Putin's tragic invasion of Ukraine in February which has 15 produced a shock to the geopolitical order with implications 16 for the future that we are only beginning to understand but 17 are sure to be consequential 18 warning of President Putin's plans but this is a case where 19 I think all of us wish we had been wrong 20 The IC as you know provided Russia's failure to rapidly seize Kyiv and overwhelm 21 Ukrainian forces has deprived Moscow of the quick military 22 victory that it had originally expected would prevent the 23 United States and NATO from being able to provide meaningful 24 military aid to Ukraine 25 resistance from Ukraine than they expected and their own Trustpoint One Alderson The Russians met with more www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 11 1 military's performance revealed a number of significant 2 internal challenges forcing them to adjust their initial 3 military objectives fall back from Kyiv and focus on the 4 Donbas 5 The next month or two of fighting will be significant 6 as the Russians attempt to reinvigorate their efforts but 7 even if they are successful we are not confident that the 8 fight in the Donbas will effectively end the war 9 President Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in We assess 10 Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals 11 beyond the Donbas 12 are probably not changed suggesting he regards the decision 13 in late March to refocus Russian forces on the Donbas as 14 only a temporary shift to regain the initiative after the 15 Russian military's failure to capture Kyiv 16 We assess that Putin's strategic goals His current near-term military objectives are to 17 capture the two oblasts in Donetsk and Luhansk with a buffer 18 zone encircle Ukrainian forces from the north and the south 19 to the west of the Donbas in order to crush the most 20 capability and well-equipped Ukrainian forces who are 21 fighting to hold the line in the east consolidate control 22 of the land bridge Russia has established from Crimea to the 23 Donbas occupy Kherson and control the water source for 24 Crimea that is to the north 25 that the Russian military wants to extend the land bridge to Trustpoint One Alderson And we also see indications www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 12 1 2 Transnistria And while the Russian forces may be capable of 3 achieving most of these near-term goals in the coming 4 months we believe that they will not be able to extend 5 control over a land bridge that stretches to Transnistria 6 and includes Odessa without launching some form of 7 mobilization 8 will be able to establish control over both oblasts and the 9 buffer zone they desire in the coming weeks 10 And it is increasingly unlikely that they But Putin most likely also judges that Russia has a 11 greater ability and willingness to endure challenges than 12 his adversaries and he is probably counting on U S and EU 13 resolve to weaken as food shortages inflation energy 14 prices get worse 15 Moreover as both Russia and Ukraine believe they can 16 continue to make progress militarily we do not see a viable 17 negotiating path forward at least in the short term 18 uncertain nature of the battle which is developing into a 19 war of attrition combined with the reality that Putin faces 20 a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia's current 21 conventional military capabilities likely means the next few 22 months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and 23 potentially escalatory trajectory 24 believe the dichotomy will usher in a period of more ad hoc 25 decision-making in Russia both with respect to the domestic Trustpoint One Alderson The At the very least we www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 13 1 adjustments required to sustain this push as well as the 2 military conflict with Ukraine and the West 3 The current trend increases the likelihood that 4 President Putin will turn to more drastic means including 5 imposing martial law reorienting industrial production or 6 potentially escalatory and military actions to free up the 7 resources needed to achieve his objectives as the conflict 8 drags on or if he perceives Russia is losing in Ukraine 9 And the most likely flashpoints for escalation in the coming 10 weeks are around increasing Russian attempts to interdict 11 Western security assistance retaliation for Western 12 economic sanctions or threats to the regime at home 13 We believe that Moscow continues to use nuclear 14 rhetoric to deter the United States and the West from 15 increasing lethal aid to Ukraine and to respond to public 16 comments that the U S and NATO allies that suggest expanded 17 Western goals in the conflict 18 the United States is ignoring his threats he may try to 19 signal to Washington the heightened danger of its support to 20 Ukraine by authorizing another large nuclear exercise 21 involving a major dispersal of mobile intercontinental 22 missiles heavy bombers strategic submarines 23 And if Putin perceives that We otherwise continue to believe that President Putin 24 would probably only authorize the use of nuclear weapons of 25 he perceived an existential threat to the Russian state or Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 14 1 regime but we will remain vigilant in monitoring every 2 aspect of Russia's strategic nuclear forces 3 this high there is always an enhanced potential for 4 miscalculation unintended escalation which we hope our 5 intelligence can help to mitigate 6 With tensions Beyond its invasion of Ukraine Moscow presents a 7 serious cyber threat a key space competitor and one of the 8 most serious foreign influence threats to the United States 9 Using its intelligence services proxies wide-ranging 10 influence tools the Russian government seeks to not only 11 pursue its own interests but also to divide Western 12 alliances undermine U S global standing amplify discord 13 inside the United States and influence U S voters and 14 decision-making 15 And to finish with our state actor threats the Iranian 16 regime continues to threaten U S interests as it tries to 17 erode U S influence in the Middle East and trends its 18 influence and project power in neighboring states and 19 minimize threats to regime stability 20 un continues to steadily expand and enhance Pyongyang 21 nuclear and conventional capabilities targeting the United 22 States and its allies periodically using aggressive 23 potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional 24 security environment in his favor and to reinforce its 25 status quo as a de facto nuclear power Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com Meanwhile Kim Jong- 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 15 1 The assessment continues to focus on a number of key 2 global and transnational threats including global health 3 security transnational organized crime the rapid 4 development of destabilizing technologies climate 5 migration and terrorism 6 challenges of a fundamentally different nature to our 7 national security than those posed by the actions of nation 8 states even powerful ones like China and Russia I raise these because they pose 9 And we look at the Russia-Ukraine war and can imagine 10 outcomes to resolve the crisis and the steps needed to get 11 there even though unpalatable and difficult and similarly 12 we view the array of challenges Chinese actions pose and can 13 discuss what is required how we think about tradeoffs 14 transnational issues are more complex require significant 15 and sustained multilateral effort and though we can discuss 16 ways of managing them all of them pose a set of choices that 17 will be more difficult to untangle and will perhaps require 18 more sacrifice to bring about meaningful change 19 reflects not just the interconnected nature of the problems 20 but also the significant impact increasingly empowered non- 21 state actors have on the outcomes and the reality that some 22 of the countries who are key to mitigating threats posed by 23 nation states are also the ones we will be asking to do more 24 in the transnational space 25 But This For example the lingering effects of the COVID-19 Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 16 1 pandemic is putting a strain on governments and societies 2 fueling humanitarian and economic crises political unrest 3 and geopolitical competition 4 high debts face particularly challenging recoveries now 5 exacerbated in some cases by increasing food security 6 resulting from the Russia-Ukraine crisis and these shifts 7 will spur migration around the world including on our 8 southern border 9 Low-income countries with The economic impact has set many poor and middle-income 10 countries back years in terms of economic development and 11 is encouraging some in Latin America Africa and Asia to 12 look to China and Russia for quick economic and security 13 assistance to manage their new reality 14 complex mix of interlocking challenges stemming from the 15 threat of climate change which is exacerbating risks in 16 U S national security interests across the board but 17 particularly as it intersects with environmental degradation 18 and global health challenges 19 We see the same And terrorism of course remains a persistent threat 20 to U S persons and interests at home and abroad but the 21 implications of the problem are evolving 22 example where terrorist groups are clearly gaining 23 strength the growing overlap between terrorism criminal 24 activity and smuggling networks has undermined stability 25 contributed to coups and an erosion of democracy and Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com In Africa for 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 17 1 resulted in countries turning to Russian entities to help 2 manage these problems 3 Global transnational criminal organizations continue to 4 pose a direct threat to the United States through the 5 production and trafficking of lethal illicit drugs massive 6 theft including cybercrime human trafficking and financial 7 crimes and money-laundering schemes 8 the threat from illicit drugs is at historic levels with 9 more than 100 000 American drug overdose deaths for the And in particular 10 first time annually driven mainly by a robust supply of 11 synthetic opioids from Mexican transnational criminal 12 organizations 13 environment is marked by the growing specter of great power 14 competition and conflict while transnational threats to all 15 nations and actors compete not only for our attention but 16 also for finite resources 17 In short the interconnected global security And finally the assessment turns to conflicts and 18 instability highlighting a series of regional challenges of 19 importance to the United States 20 Israel and Iran and conflicts in other areas including 21 Africa Asia and the Middle East have the potential to 22 escalate or spread fueling humanitarian crises and 23 threatening U S persons 24 irregular transfers of power since 2020 and probably will 25 see new bouts of conflict in the coming year as the region Trustpoint One Alderson Iterative violence between Africa for example has seen six www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 18 1 becomes increasingly strained by a volatile mixture of 2 democratic backsliding intercommunal violence and the 3 continued threat of cross-border terrorism 4 And finally most important of all we are focused on 5 our workforces and their families 6 contribute to the government-wide effort to better 7 understand potential causal mechanisms of anomalous health 8 incidents and remains committed to ensuring afflicted 9 individuals receive the quality care they need The IC continues to The safety 10 and well-being of our workforce is our highest priority and 11 we are grateful to members of this committee for your 12 continued support on these issues 13 14 15 Thank you for the opportunity to present our assessments and I look forward to your questions The prepared statement of Ms Haines follows 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 19 1 Chairman Reed 2 General Berrier please Thank you very much Madam Director 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 20 1 2 3 STATEMENT OF LIEUTENANT GENERAL SCOTT BERRIER DIRECTOR DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY General Berrier Chairman Reed Ranking Member Inhofe 4 and distinguished members of this committee it is a 5 privilege to testify today as part of the Intelligence 6 Community's 2022 assessment of worldwide threats to U S 7 national security 8 Agency I want to express how much we appreciate your support 9 and partnership 10 On behalf of the Defense Intelligence Thank you DIA fills a unique intelligence role by providing 11 strategy operational and tactical intelligence to our 12 warfighters defense planners policymakers and the 13 acquisition community 14 warfighting domains to assess foreign capabilities and 15 understand our adversaries' intent 16 professionals in partnership with our Intelligence 17 Community colleagues allies and foreign partners deliver 18 timely and relevant intelligence on the threats and 19 challenges facing our nation 20 workforce that has overcome difficult challenges posed by 21 the pandemic 22 you and the American public on the evolving threat 23 environment as we understand it 24 25 We examine conflict across all DIA's dedicated DIA has a highly resilient Today my goal is to convey DIA's insights to As I look at the global landscape today I want to begin with Russia and its invasion of Ukraine which is now Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 21 1 in its third month 2 used to violate the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine 3 and they pose an existential threat to U S national 4 security and that of our allies 5 demonstrated Russia's intent to overturn the U S -led 6 rules-based post-Cold War international order expand its 7 control over the former Soviet Union and reclaim what it 8 regards as its rightful position on the world stage 9 Moscow's underestimation of Ukraine's effective Russian military capabilities have been The invasion has 10 resistance Russia's substantial battlefield losses and 11 Western resolve to support Ukraine has undermined Moscow's 12 assault on Kyiv and improved prospects that Ukraine can 13 successfully defend its sovereignty 14 its focus to eastern Ukraine where it appears to be 15 prioritizing defeating Ukrainian forces in the Donbas 16 response to stiff Ukrainian resistance Russia has resorted 17 to more indiscriminate and brutal methods that are 18 destroying cities infrastructure and increasing civilian 19 deaths 20 the outcome of the battle in the Donbas while partnerships 21 with Ukraine and warning of potential escalation remain key 22 priorities for DIA 23 Moscow has now shifted In Negotiations remain stalled as both sides focus on Turning to China it remains a pacing threat and a 24 major security challenge 25 United States as a strategic competitor Trustpoint One Alderson Beijing has long viewed the www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com China is capable 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 22 1 of combining its economic diplomatic military and 2 technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a 3 stable and open international system 4 already fielded sophisticated weapons and instituted major 5 organizational reforms to enhance joint operations is 6 nearing the status of a global competitor to the United 7 States its allies and partners and is a credible peer 8 competitor in the region 9 expansion is historic 10 The PLA which has China's current nuclear force The United States faces military and intelligence 11 threats from competitors particularly Russia and China who 12 have and are developing new capabilities intended to 13 contest limit or exceed U S military advantage 14 and non-state actors are selectively putting these 15 capabilities into play globally and regionally 16 capabilities also span all warfighting domains – maritime 17 land air electronic warfare cyberspace information and 18 space 19 missiles growing nuclear stockpiles modernized 20 conventional forces and a range of gray zone measures such 21 as the use of ambiguous unconventional forces foreign 22 proxies information manipulation cyberattacks and 23 economic coercion 24 25 State These They include more lethal ballistic and cruise Strategic competitors and other challengers are exerting increasing military pressure on neighboring states Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 23 1 Russia has invaded Ukraine China is threatening Taiwan and 2 Iran through its proxies threats neighbors in the Middle 3 East and U S forces while also enriching uranium to new 4 levels 5 Japan and the United States with nuclear-capable ballistic 6 missiles of increased range and lethality North Korea continues to threaten South Korea 7 Transnationally the terrorist threat will also 8 persist and we need to understand more about the lessons 9 learned from our experience supporting military and 10 intelligence operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East 11 Turning back to my own organization I take the health 12 safety and well-being of my workforce very very seriously 13 DIA remains actively engaged in investigating Anomalous 14 Health Incidents AHIs 15 procedures in place to quickly respond to reports from 16 employees or their families who believe that they have been 17 impacted by AHI 18 of the IC to determine the origin and cause of the reported 19 events 20 My agency has the process and We are also partnering with other members I am honored to lead DIA My intent in this hearing is 21 that this helps Congress and our nation better understand 22 the threats and challenges we face from foreign adversaries 23 and competitors 24 thank you for your continued support 25 I look forward to your questions and The prepared statement of General Berrier follows Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 24 1 Chairman Reed 2 Let me remind my colleagues that at the conclusion of Thank you General 3 this open session there will be a classified session in SVC- 4 217 and the witnesses may defer some responses to that 5 classified session 6 Director Haines your description of the unfolding 7 battle in the Ukraine suggests that it is moving to a battle 8 of attrition over a long term and that the objectives of the 9 Russians are to destroy the Ukrainian forces and also 10 disrupt the international coalition through economic 11 pressures gasoline prices and other factors we are 12 witnessing 13 That leads us to at least me to the question of how 14 effective are our economic sanctions and what more can we do 15 to bring pressure to the people of Russia so that they are 16 less supportive of this effort 17 Ms Haines Thank you Chairman I think from our 18 perspective the economic sanctions and the export controls 19 have had a pretty significant impact on Russia and among 20 the indicators that one might look at are for example the 21 fact that we are seeing close to about we predict 22 approximately 20 percent inflation in Russia that we expect 23 that their GDP will fall about 10 percent possibly even 24 more over the course of the year 25 We have seen not only the sanctions enacted by the Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 25 1 United States and Europe and other partners around the world 2 having these impacts but also the private sector taking 3 action on its own to remove itself 4 that oil production services and companies pulled themselves 5 out will have an impact on Russia's capacity to produce and 6 that is a major revenue source obviously for Russia 7 have seen other indicators of essentially the private sector 8 impact in these areas and on the export controls we are 9 seeing how things like export controls on semiconductors and 10 11 So things like the fact We so on are affecting their defense industry So I think that is a very significant impact 12 essentially although obviously time will tell as we move 13 forward 14 Chairman Reed Are you sensing any popular unease 15 perhaps in terms of these economic factors that could 16 translate into a political resistance to the regime 17 Ms Haines Well I know many of us saw the protests 18 that erupted after the invasion and then the crackdown that 19 occurred essentially in Russia including passing laws 20 that would provide for very significant punishments in the 21 event that one protested on these issues 22 seen those reduced actually and when we have looked at 23 effectively polling and so on that indicates where it is 24 that the Russian people are what we see is that the 25 majority of the Russian people continue to support the Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com And so we have 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 26 1 special military operation 2 hard frankly for information to get into Russia to the 3 Russian people 4 they are being fed by the government during this period And I think it is just very The have a very particular perspective that 5 Chairman Reed 6 General Berrier what do you believe the Chinese are Thank you 7 taking away from their close scrutiny of the Russian 8 activities in Ukraine 9 General Berrier Senator I think the Chinese are 10 going to watch this very very carefully 11 take some time for them to sort out all elements of 12 diplomatic information military economic that has 13 occurred with this crisis 14 It is going to I think they are thinking about future operations 15 probably against Taiwan and how difficult that might be 16 They are probably also thinking about the scrutiny that they 17 would come under should they entertain thoughts or 18 operations like that 19 Chairman Reed 20 And final question Director Haines Thank you I think you 21 indicated in your testimony that cyber interference in our 22 elections is a distinct possibility 23 your agency or the agencies are following and taking 24 preemptive steps 25 Ms Haines Trustpoint One Alderson Is that something that Yes absolutely Senator www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com We are well 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 27 1 positioned to essentially monitor for the potential of 2 election influence including efforts through cyber 3 Chairman Reed One other final final question Are 4 you surprised that the Russians have not used cyberattacks 5 against third parties or against the United States directly 6 up to this point 7 from the beginning of this operation 8 9 Ms Haines I think that was a concern we all had I think what we have seen is the Russians have obviously attacked Ukraine and we have attributed a 10 variety of attacks to them in that context including for 11 example destructive wiper attacks against Ukrainian 12 government websites DDoS attacks against their financial 13 industry 14 at command-and-control communications in Ukraine during the 15 invasion 16 words we assessed that they intended to focus in on 17 Ukrainian command and control but ultimately they ended up 18 affecting a much broader set of VSATs essentially you 19 know very small terminals outside of Ukraine including in 20 Europe They also were engaged in attacks intended to get That attack had an outsized impact In other 21 And yet we have not seen the level of attacks to your 22 point that we expected and we have a variety of different 23 theories for why that might be the case including the fact 24 that we think that they may have determined that the 25 collateral impact of such attacks would be challenging for Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 28 1 them in the context of Ukraine also that they may not have 2 wished to essentially sacrifice potential access and 3 collection opportunities in those scenarios 4 And then in terms of attacks against the United States 5 I think they have had a longstanding concern about the 6 potential for escalation in cyber vis-à-vis the United 7 States 8 some point but it has been interesting to see that they 9 have not during this period That does not mean that they will not attack at 10 Chairman Reed 11 Senator Inhofe please 12 Senator Inhofe Thank you very much Thank you Mr Chairman For both of 13 you the lack of an independent intelligence community 14 significantly worsened Putin's decision-making in Ukraine 15 What do you think President Xi in China is learning about 16 his intelligence communities 17 Ms Haines Thank you Both of you Senator Inhofe I think it is 18 a really interesting question 19 perhaps in closed session 20 21 22 23 Senator Inhofe I would prefer to answer it Would that be all right sir That is fine General any comments to make in this open session General Berrier Senator I will take the DNI's lead on that 24 Senator Inhofe 25 The Biden administration has offered Iran significant Trustpoint One Alderson I suspected that www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com Thank you 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 29 1 sanctions relief in return to the 2015 Iran Nuclear 2 Agreement 3 at least some of this sanctions relief on its terrorist 4 proxies and missile programs 5 has additional money that they would increase their 6 targeting of Americans and our allies 7 increase that targeting 8 9 10 General Berrier would you expect Iran to spend General Berrier Do you agree that if the IRGC Let's say could they Yes Senator they could increase targeting against our partners in the region as well as U S forces if they had increased funding 11 Senator Inhofe 12 Thank you Mr Chairman 13 Chairman Reed 14 Let me recognize Senator Shaheen please 15 Senator Shaheen 16 17 I appreciate that very much Thank you very much Senator Inhofe Thank you Good morning and thank you both for your testimony this morning I returned a couple of weeks ago from the Western 18 Balkans with Senator Tillis and Senator Murphy 19 Serbia Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo 20 things we heard in that region was a great deal of concern 21 about Russian meddling and the potential particularly in 22 Bosnia for that to further destabilize the country 23 you all following what is going on in that part of Europe 24 and are you equally concerned 25 Ms Haines Trustpoint One Alderson And one of the Thank you Senator Shaheen www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com We visited Are So I will 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 30 1 just start and obviously hand it over to my colleague as 2 well but yes we are concerned about this 3 something we have been working with NATO on in particular 4 to try to help them be more resilient in this context 5 both information and cyber issues are obviously at stake 6 but I think managing how it is that Russia develops and what 7 kind of activities they engage in worldwide during this 8 crisis and beyond will be a critical aspect of our work 9 moving forward 10 Senator Shaheen This is And Can I just before you begin 11 General can I just ask you to speak to NATO and U4 in 12 Bosnia because as you know the authorization for U4 is 13 going to end this fall in Bosnia and there is a real 14 concern about Russia's willingness to allow that to 15 continue 16 are not taken out of Bosnia and a void left that provides a 17 real vacuum for instability 18 19 20 So what are we doing to ensure that the troops General Berrier Senator I think that is a policy question and I would refer it to the Department of Defense And Senator to the earlier portion of your question I 21 believe this is a key component of strategic competition 22 and this is where I think with our partners and allies and 23 certainly NATO we have to be able to identify that kind of 24 malign activity and expose it and help our partners and 25 future partners be aware of it and do more to counter it Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 31 1 2 Yes we are aware of it Senator Shaheen Thank you Well I would say that 3 that policy decision needs to be viewed very closely by 4 everybody so that we do not wind up with a vacuum there that 5 we are not able to address 6 I want to go to what is still happening with ISIS 7 because as you both know we have thousands of ISIS family 8 members who are still being held in camps in northern Syria 9 They are posing a persistent challenge not only 10 humanitarian but the potential breeding ground for 11 terrorists 12 there and what are we doing to try and address what is 13 happening in those camps 14 So are we watching closely what is going on General Berrier From the perspective of the 15 Department of Defense and DIA we are watching very very 16 closely what is happening in those camps what has happened 17 since the break-in and really with our CENTCOM partners 18 trying to monitor ISIS capability as it evolves over time 19 and what is happening with those families and where they are 20 moving 21 the Defense Counterterrorism Center and really the National 22 Counterterrorism Center 23 24 25 This is a problem that we partner with CENTCOM and Senator Shaheen It is a huge focus for everybody And do we have a strategy for how to deal with it General Berrier Trustpoint One Alderson We have an intelligence collection www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 32 1 2 strategy to monitor it Senator Shaheen And we are seeing the Taliban in 3 Afghanistan renege on everything they said they would do 4 post troop withdrawal 5 continuing their relationship with al Qaeda and other 6 terrorist groups in Afghanistan 7 we might see terrorist activity spread out of Afghanistan to 8 the rest of the world 9 General Berrier Obviously one of those is How concerned are you that Senator I am more concerned about 10 ISIS-K in Afghanistan and the fact that they have had some 11 successful and catastrophic attacks within Afghanistan 12 which does not portend well for the future 13 had some problems with reconstitution leadership and to a 14 degree I think the Taliban have held to their word about not 15 allowing al Qaeda to rejuvenate so far 16 that we watch very very carefully 17 Senator Shaheen Al Qaeda has But it is something And there was an election in the 18 Philippines yesterday and the winner of that election Mr 19 Marcos is not likely have as positive a view to the United 20 States 21 impact on how China is going to view activity in the 22 Philippines and do we expect there might be any spillover 23 in terms of illegal substances from the Philippines now that 24 Duarte is no longer doing his extra legal killing of people 25 suspected of being drug kingpins Are you concerned that that is going to have an Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 33 1 General Berrier Senator I think it is early in the 2 process with the elected Marcos to determine whether or not 3 he will be anti-U S or pro-U S 4 to have the Philippines as a key intelligence partner in the 5 region 6 that 7 relationship and I will just end it there I think there is a lot of effort going on to do So we will wait to see what percolates in our 8 Senator Shaheen 9 Chairman Reed Thank you Senator Fischer please 11 Senator Fischer 13 Thank you Mr Chairman Thank you Senator Shaheen 10 12 I know that we would like Thank you Mr Chairman and welcome to our panel today Last week in the Strategic Forces Subcommittee Under 14 Secretary of Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu stated 15 quote Strategic competitors of the United States are 16 rapidly developing their nuclear arsenal in new and novel 17 ways with a clear intent of increasing their reliance on 18 these weapons in their security strategies end quote 19 Director Haines do you agree with that statement 20 Ms Haines 21 Senator Fischer General do you 22 General Berrier Yes 23 Senator Fischer Throughout the war in Ukraine Putin Yes 24 and other Russian leaders have overtly threatened nuclear 25 use including the Russian state TV airing an animated video Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 34 1 showing the British Isles being completely destroyed by a 2 nuclear attack 3 General in the United States we view nuclear weapons 4 primarily as tools of deterrence but do you think what we 5 are seeing indicates Russian leadership views nuclear 6 weapons as tools of coercion and intimidation 7 8 9 General Berrier Yes I believe they view those as tools of coercion and intimidation Senator Fischer Thank you General also the 10 Defense Intelligence Agency's 2021 report on China's 11 military power states quote The accelerating pace of the 12 PRC's nuclear expansion may enable the PRC to have up to 700 13 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027 14 intends to have at least 1 000 warheads by 2030 exceeding 15 the pace and size the DoD projected in 2020 end quote 16 The PRC likely I know what you say is limited in this setting but is 17 it your assessment that China's nuclear forces will stop 18 expanding when it reaches that point of 1 000 19 20 21 General Berrier It is my assessment that they would continue to develop the weapons they have Senator Fischer Director Haines is that the view 22 shared by the rest of the IC that China's arsenal is going 23 to continue to grow past that point in time 24 25 Ms Haines I mean our assessment basically says that China will continue to essentially expand their nuclear Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 35 1 arsenal and diversification for a period of time 2 unclear how long that will be 3 Senator Fischer It is But do you anticipate it will 4 continue past the 1 000 warheads that we have looked at in 5 the past 6 7 Ms Haines I think for us to get into numbers we should do that in closed session 8 Senator Fischer 9 General as the statement notes China's nuclear Thank you 10 expansion is larger and more rapid thank previous 11 assessments projected 12 point noting quote When I first testified here we were 13 questioning whether or not China would be able to double 14 that stockpile by the end of the decade and they are 15 actually very close to doing it on my watch end quote Admiral Richard has made a similar 16 What are the implications of the fact that this threat 17 is evolving faster than we have anticipated and how should 18 we factor that in our assessments 19 General Berrier Senator we can get into much more 20 detail in the closed session but I would just say from a 21 strategic competition perspective and nuclear deterrence 22 this makes it much more challenging for us to defend 23 when you factor in Russian nuclear capability with Chinese 24 capability I think it is a problem for Strategic Command 25 and the Department Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com And 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 36 1 Senator Fischer Thank you Also General if we can 2 move to a different theater now 3 able to operate in Afghanistan without consistent or 4 effective CT pressure how long does the Intelligence 5 Community assess it will take for either organization to 6 reconstitute their external attack capabilities 7 8 General Berrier If ISIS and al Qaeda are We assess ISIS probably a year slightly longer and longer for al Qaeda 9 Senator Fischer Last October we heard from Secretary 10 Kahl 11 generate the capability in 6 to 12 months 12 March we heard from General McKenzie that the capability 13 might be 12 to 18 months 14 about how and why these intelligence estimates have shifted 15 forward 16 know and it is important to understand when we look at the 17 dramatic reduction we have seen in our intelligence 18 collection in the region since our withdrawal He told the committee that we could see ISIS-K And then in So I look forward to hearing more I think that is important for this committee to 19 Thank you Mr Chairman 20 Chairman Reed 21 Senator Gillibrand please 22 Senator Gillibrand Thank you Thank you Senator Fischer Director Haines thank you so much 23 for your testimony 24 advanced persistent threats and I want to know what type of 25 support are you providing critical infrastructure Trustpoint One Alderson I want to talk a little bit about www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 37 1 providers to deal with APTs 2 if this war in Ukraine does escalate that attacks from 3 Russia will come to American businesses and our critical 4 infrastructure 5 but in your engagement with critical infrastructure 6 providers what are the biggest areas of need that they have 7 shared with you and are there any additional authorities 8 that would be helpful to you in enabling you to support 9 critical infrastructure providers in securing their 10 11 Specifically I am concerned I know this is generally the job of CISA networks Ms Haines Thank you Senator and I know this has 12 been a major issue focus for you and in fact that you have 13 supported some of the things that have been done in New York 14 with Reserves for example in this area which have been 15 really effective 16 looking at expanding that around the United States in 17 different ways 18 And I know that General Nakasone has been I think for us we have quite obviously heightened 19 awareness of cyber threats to critical infrastructure and 20 it has been a driving force behind a number of sorts of 21 cyber defense measures that we have taken in the 22 Intelligence Community to support in effect as you say 23 CISA and FBI and others in doing their work 24 25 One is lowering thresholds for reporting We have asked for network owners to really lower their threshold for Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 38 1 reporting suspected malicious activity 2 from our perspective in order for us to be able to identify 3 what the threat is 4 That is critical Another is just making more information publicly 5 available 6 we release to the private sector both to help combat the 7 rise in cybercrime and recently in our efforts to posture 8 industry for potential Russian cyberattacks for example 9 something that we have been trying to get out to do We are increasing the amount of information that 10 significantly more briefings on and help industry in 11 effect get ready for things so they can take action that 12 would make them more resilient in these circumstances 13 this includes some close-hold releases so as to dampen 14 malicious cyber actors warning before mitigations can be put 15 into place 16 And Another has been our significant outreach to the 17 private sector 18 more than 10 000 partners just even on the Russia piece 19 and it includes sharing preventative measures to help these 20 partners mitigate vulnerabilities 21 facilitating hunt teams on networks 22 company owners to actively hunt for Russian techniques 23 essentially on their networks and to facilitate those have 24 provided lists of vulnerabilities indicators of compromise 25 to look for on a company's networks Trustpoint One Alderson DHS partners held over 90 engagements with Another has been www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com And we have also asked 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 39 1 2 But those are just some of the things that are focused on helping on the infrastructure piece 3 Senator Gillibrand Thank you Thank you Director Do you need 4 any additional authorities or resources to amplify this 5 effort 6 Ms Haines So we have asked for resources in our 7 fiscal year 2023 budget that are designed to help with this 8 effort and so absolutely in that sense 9 identified particular authorities that we need but I will 10 We have not tell you that we will come to you if we do 11 Senator Gillibrand Thank you Thank you Director Haines and 12 General Berrier I saw that the Annual Threat Assessment 13 notes that advances in dual-use technology could quote 14 enable development of novel biological weapons that 15 complicate detection attribution and treatment end of 16 quote 17 I have advocated for a one-health security approach 18 where we incorporate people across multiple disciplines 19 including the Intelligence Community to increase our 20 biodefense and prevent the next pandemic 21 In the context of ongoing biological threats how would 22 you suggest we develop a multidisciplinary approach like 23 this 24 occurring diseases but also deliberate threats 25 Where can we prepare and prevent both naturally Ms Haines Trustpoint One Alderson I can start on this www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com I am very passionate 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 40 1 about this issue 2 have not in the Intelligence Community been able to work 3 with other parts of for example the Federal Government 4 even in the scientific community within the Federal 5 Government as effectively as we need to 6 I completely agree with you I think we And we have been developing mechanisms in the 7 Intelligence Community to do some more 8 with the National Labs than we ever have before 9 working more with HHS with CDC with others to try to make We are working more We are 10 sure that we are also supporting their work and that we can 11 understand some of the issues that they see as critical to 12 our work 13 Intelligence Community within the national 14 counterproliferation 15 major effort on essentially working with global health and 16 we actually now have a new national intelligence manager 17 that works on these issues specifically and is hoping to 18 support that kind of outreach on this 19 to give you a brief at some point in more detail if that is 20 useful So that has been a big piece of our effort in the And Senator we have been doing a 21 Senator Gillibrand 22 General Berrier And I would be happy Thank you Senator for DIA I think it is about 23 partnerships 24 Center for Medical Intelligence the Defense 25 Counterproliferation Center as well as NCPC Trustpoint One Alderson So it is a partnership between the National www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com The role 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 41 1 really for DIA and NCMI is to provide warning on these 2 pandemics 3 it is an area that is going to expand in the coming months 4 and years as we look forward to this and I look forward to 5 engaging you perhaps at DIA on this topic 6 7 So I am passionate about it as well and I think Senator Gillibrand Thank you Chairman 8 Chairman Reed 9 Senator Cotton please 10 Thank you Mr Senator Cotton Thank you Senator Gillibrand General what is your assessment on 11 the state of the fighting between Russia and Ukraine in 12 eastern and southern Ukraine today 13 General Berrier Senator I think I would characterize 14 it as the Russians are not winning and the Ukrainians are 15 not winning and we are at a bit of a stalemate here 16 what has been the most interesting evolution for me in 17 watching how the Russian forces have misstepped is really 18 the lack of a non-commissioned officer corps 19 about small unit tactics and how this has unfolded between 20 Ukraine and Russia I think the NCO corps is a big piece of 21 this and I think the Ukrainians have that about right 22 23 24 25 Senator Cotton And When I think Who faces greater risk from a stalemate -- Russia or Ukraine General Berrier I think we have to take a wait-and- see approach on how this evolves and what is in the decision Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 42 1 2 calculus for Putin and his generals as this unfolds Senator Cotton A stalemate to be clear does not 3 mean an armistice or peace 4 indecisive fighting in which both sides are losing 5 personnel equipment weapons and vehicles 6 General Berrier It means continued but Right I think it is attrition warfare and 7 it depends how well the Ukrainians can maintain what they 8 have going on with weapons and ammunition and how the 9 Russians decide to deal with that either through 10 mobilization or not and decide to go with what they have in 11 the theater right now 12 Senator Cotton Which side do you think at this 13 point is more capable of generating additional combat power 14 in the form of trained and motivated troops -- Russia or 15 Ukraine 16 General Berrier 17 Senator Cotton 18 Ukraine Even though it is one-third the size of Russia 19 General Berrier 20 Senator Cotton 21 General Berrier Yes Why do you say that Because I think the Ukrainians have 22 it right in terms of grit and how they face the defense of 23 their nation 24 far-flung military districts really understand that 25 I am not sure that Russian soldiers from the Senator Cotton Trustpoint One Alderson Fighting to defend one's own home from www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 43 1 a war of aggression is a highly motivating factor is it 2 not 3 General Berrier 4 Senator Cotton Yes it is And Russians probably are not terribly 5 motivated to be the next wave of recruits into Vladimir 6 Putin's war of aggression 7 General Berrier 8 9 I would say not based on what we have seen Senator Cotton If that is the case and this 10 stalemate as you call it continues not just for weeks but 11 for months which side do you think faces the greater 12 possibility of a decisive breakout -- the Russians with 13 their ill-trained and unmotivated troops or the Ukrainians 14 with their supremely motivated troops 15 General Berrier Senator I think right now with the 16 stalemate and as it stands if Russia does not declare war 17 and mobilize this stalemate is going to last for a while 18 and I do not see a breakout on either side 19 mobilize and they do declare war that will bring thousands 20 more soldiers to the fight and even though they may not be 21 as well-trained and competent they will still bring mass and 22 a lot of more ammunition 23 Senator Cotton If they do What are the prospects of a 24 catastrophic collapse of morale and will among Russian 25 forces Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 44 1 General Berrier It remains to be seen I think the 2 Russians still are a learning organization 3 lessons could be applied with leadership you might see that 4 turn around 5 6 7 8 9 10 Senator Cotton If appropriate Do you know the current count on how many generals have been killed in Ukraine on Russia's side General Berrier I think the number is between eight and ten Senator Cotton Do you know how many generals we lost in 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan 11 General Berrier 12 Senator Cotton 13 right 14 helicopter Not many And those we lost were happenstance The bad guys got a lucky shot at a convoy or 15 General Berrier 16 Senator Cotton Yes Does the fact that Russia is losing 17 all these generals and as you pointed out they have no 18 trained NCO corps suggest to you that these generals are 19 having to go forward to ensure their orders are executed in 20 a way that General Berrier never would have to go forward if 21 he was in a combat command because he could count on the 22 captains and lieutenants and the Sergeant Berriers to 23 execute his orders 24 General Berrier 25 Senator Cotton Trustpoint One Alderson Yes It sounds to me like the balance of www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 45 1 forces here are moving more decisively in Ukraine's factor 2 and will continue to over time as long as we continue to 3 support them with the arms and the intelligence that they 4 need 5 6 General Berrier Well-led forces that are motivated and have what they need can do a lot 7 Senator Cotton 8 Chairman Reed 9 Senator Blumenthal please 10 Thank you Thank you Senator Cotton Senator Blumenthal Thank you Mr Chairman I want 11 to pursue Senator Cotton's line of questioning if I may 12 my exchange with the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman 13 of the Joint Chiefs of Staff several weeks ago I commented 14 that our approach to Ukraine seemed somewhat schizophrenic 15 We say we want Ukraine to win but we are afraid of what 16 Putin may do if he loses 17 provide more lethal weapons to Ukraine 18 In I have urged since 2014 that we When I visited Ukraine recently with some of my 19 colleagues a bipartisan trip one of them asked President 20 Zelenskyy Are you fearful about the Russian prospect of 21 invasion 22 He said The Russians invaded us in 2014 23 fighting them since then And in my view the implication is 24 that we have failed over a period of years under different 25 administrations to provide Ukraine with the arms that it It was a number of weeks before the invasion Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com We have been 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 46 1 needs to counter and deter increased Russian aggression 2 there 3 So my question to you is do you agree that we should 4 increase the kind of military aid as well as humanitarian 5 assistance and economic sanctions that we have been 6 providing by orders of magnitude that will enable Ukraine 7 to win and would you also agree that if we simply provide 8 more of that kind of aid -- tanks artillery armored 9 personnel carriers even planes Stinger and Javelin 10 missiles all of the arms that Ukraine needs to fight 11 lethally and defensively -- that Putin may engage in sword- 12 rattling and threats and implications of what he might do 13 but enabling Ukraine to win ought to be our objective 14 Let me ask you first General 15 General Berrier Senator in your statement there it 16 really gets at national level of decision-making on what our 17 policy should be with regard to arming Ukraine 18 the Director of DIA is to keep an eye on this conflict and 19 provide information to decision-makers so that they can make 20 those kinds of decisions 21 My role as In terms of what Putin might do to escalate I think 22 the best that we can do rather than describing what those 23 escalatory measures would be would be to understand what 24 they might do and be ready in terms of indications and 25 warning to be able to notify decision-makers that that was Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 47 1 2 3 4 actually occurring or about to occur So I take an intelligence perspective of the conflict itself and leave the policy to decision-makers Senator Blumenthal Do you -- and I will ask Ms 5 Haines the same -- think there is a serious immediate 6 prospect that Putin would engage in the use of tactical 7 nuclear weapons 8 9 General Berrier Right now we do not see that and I think that is a huge warning issue for us and something that 10 we are very very focused on 11 Senator Blumenthal 12 Ms Haines Ms Haines Thank you Senator I think on the first 13 part of your question you know as General Berrier said 14 obviously we try to provide the intelligence to help 15 policymakers like you make these decisions 16 questions that come up in that discussion are whether or 17 not frankly Ukraine can absorb additional assistance and 18 how much of it and that is very hard for us to tell 19 have in fact more insight probably on the Russian side 20 than we do on the Ukrainian side but that is something 21 obviously for the Defense Department to work through as 22 they go through this 23 And among the We But we also obviously get asked this question of 24 whether or not certain actions will escalate things with 25 Russia as you indicate and if so how Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com And that really 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 48 1 gets to the second part of your question because I think 2 obviously we are in a position as you have identified 3 where we are supporting Ukraine but we also do not want to 4 ultimately end up in World War III and we do not want to 5 have a situation in which actors are using nuclear weapons 6 Our view is as General Berrier indicated that there 7 is not a sort of an imminent potential for Putin to use 8 nuclear weapons 9 statement as something that he is unlikely to do unless We perceive that as I indicated in my 10 there is effectively an existential threat to his regime and 11 to Russia from his perspective 12 could be the case in the event that he perceives that he is 13 losing the war in Ukraine and that NATO in effect is sort 14 of either intervening or about to intervene in that context 15 which would obviously contribute to a perception that he is 16 about to lose the war in Ukraine 17 We do think that that But there are a lot of things that he would do in the 18 context of escalation before he would get to nuclear 19 weapons and also that he would be likely to engage in some 20 signaling beyond what he has done thus far before doing so 21 Senator Blumenthal 22 Senator King 23 Senator Blackburn 24 25 Thank you Presiding Senator Blackburn My time has expired On behalf of the chairman Thank you Mr Chairman and thank you very much to each of you for being here today Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 49 1 Ms Haines I want to come to you We have talked a 2 lot about Ukraine and Russia this morning and I appreciate 3 your frankness in this 4 the proxies and what you are seeing not only in Ukraine but 5 also what you are seeing when it comes to Libya and to other 6 areas and the aggressiveness of the use of the proxies 7 8 9 10 Ms Haines But let me ask you about Wagner and Thank you Senator We can probably go into more detail in closed session Senator Blackburn Ms Haines Okay But I could just say more generally that 11 we do see Wagner being used in effect in Ukraine 12 that that is something -- 13 Senator Blackburn 14 Ms Haines We see And how about Africa Yes absolutely Wagner has been 15 historically present in Africa and it is a more recent 16 event obviously in the current crisis that Russia deployed 17 them effectively in Ukraine 18 Senator Blackburn 19 General Berrier do you have anything you want to add 20 21 Okay All right on that General Berrier Senator we track ISIS in Africa 22 Syria other places 23 discussion in the closed session about Wagner operations in 24 Ukraine 25 I think we will get into a richer Senator Blackburn Trustpoint One Alderson Okay That is helpful www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com Let me ask 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 50 1 you also -- and by the way thank you for the China map 2 will say this 3 and say that is where China is seeking to be aggressive 4 is something that is not lost on me that they are anxious 5 right now to expand their reach 6 I think we could have a picture of the globe It But let's talk about DIA and how is the DIA 7 collaborating with our allies and our partners to counter 8 Beijing's cyber espionage operations 9 I General Berrier Senator we are We are closely 10 collaborating with our Five Eyes partners in this case our 11 Australian and New Zealand partners on this very issue 12 along with our partners over at the National Security Agency 13 with General Nakasone 14 There is a concerted effort by the Five Eyes to 15 understand these activities in cyberspace emanating from 16 China 17 provide more details in a closed session 18 So we are working that very very closely and we can Senator Blackburn And can you provide us with some of 19 the lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine conflict that 20 help to inform some of this work 21 General Berrier 22 Senator Blackburn 23 General Berrier Cyber activity Yes sir So I think the key there would be 24 information operations and disinformation operations and 25 their level of effectiveness on the Russian side or Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 51 1 ineffectiveness on the Russian side and then looking at the 2 level of effectiveness on the Ukrainian side 3 compare and contrast information operations I think the 4 Ukrainians have been much more successful in the information 5 operations and space 6 cyber activities in the Ukraine and I think the PRC and Xi 7 are looking at all of that as they sort of unwind this 8 conflict and learn lessons from that 9 When I Russians have had some success with Senator Blackburn And Ms Haines how is the intel 10 community utilizing AI and machine learning as they look at 11 applications look at how Beijing is continuing to move 12 forward 13 technologies that can help us in this effort 14 So how are you preferencing some of the new Ms Haines Thank you Senator We are using 15 artificial intelligence and in particular machine 16 learning across the board for our mission set 17 give you an example of the kind of things that we are able 18 to do with it I think it has been extraordinary in terms of 19 helping us with analysis being able to focus in on certain 20 datasets that we are able to effectively manipulate more 21 easily and without as many human resources effectively to 22 identify patterns 23 analysts that are educated and experts take that information 24 and use it in their analysis in different ways 25 And just to We are able to use that then have We have something called an Artificial Intelligence Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 52 1 Unit Project that is really looking at across the 2 Intelligence Community at different applications of 3 artificial intelligence and machine learning and then trying 4 to leverage those so that we can actually allow other 5 elements to build off of the work that is being done by 6 another element that they might not have thought of before 7 and also doing it at sort of a cheaper cost and so on 8 9 So there are a variety of ways in which we are doing it It is hard to talk about it in an unclassified way but 10 certainly this is a major area of effort and investment and 11 we can provide you with further details if that is useful 12 Senator Blackburn Thank you My time has expired I 13 will come to you for a written response on the recent 14 article that quoted a senior intel source about referencing 15 the uptick in Al-Shabaab activity So thank you very much 16 Senator King 17 Senator Warren 18 It is paramount to our national security that we keep On behalf of the chair Senator Warren Thank you Senator King 19 our most sensitive secrets properly protected and 20 classified particularly when protecting sources and 21 methods 22 classification and pseudo-classification that we are seeing 23 across the Federal Government 24 need to protect information about most sensitive 25 capabilities from our enemies but our classification system But I am very concerned about the levels of over- Trustpoint One Alderson Everyone understands the www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 53 1 has spiraled out of control when it means for example 2 that our own four-star generals cannot share information 3 with their fellow three-stars 4 level of classification is making America safer 5 It is hard to see how that So over-classification also reduces public scrutiny of 6 important issues and it can hamper accountability 7 Haines you lead the Intelligence Community 8 of experience in these matters 9 classification is a national security problem 10 Ms Haines Director You have years I do Senator Do you think that over- I have stated this 11 explicitly 12 have been in government frankly there have been blue- 13 ribbon commissions that have looked at this have said there 14 is significant over-classification 15 you indicate from a democratic perspective but it is also a 16 challenge from a national security perspective because if we 17 cannot share information as easily as we might otherwise be 18 if it were appropriately classified then that obviously 19 affects our capacity to work on these issues 20 I do think it is a challenge This is a challenge as It is a very challenging issue as I know you know 21 well 22 There are cultural aspects to it 23 As long as I In other words there are technical aspects to it Senator Warren So let us talk about that just a 24 little bit and I want to say I agree with you that over- 25 classification has been a problem across administrations Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 54 1 The Obama administration put out two different Executive 2 orders aimed at improving classification and information 3 sharing but that was more than a decade ago and obviously 4 the problem persists 5 So let me ask this a different way Director Haines 6 would you support the Administration releasing a new 7 Executive order on classification practices to ensure that 8 we are protecting national security information while 9 keeping our commitments to open government 10 Ms Haines Without knowing exactly what it would say 11 it is sort of hard for me to say I would support an 12 Executive order on that subject 13 looking for additional ways in which we might try to help 14 address this issue and we have a number of ways that we are 15 investing in the Intelligence Community issues 16 I -- 17 18 Senator Warren I mean I am constantly But yeah I appreciate that and I am not asking you to sign a blank check here 19 Ms Haines 20 Senator Warren No Fair enough But you are the President's principal 21 advisor on intelligence matters and I am just asking if you 22 would be supportive if the President wanted to take that 23 step 24 25 Ms Haines Well I am supportive of what the President wants to take steps within his authority and it Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 55 1 is an appropriate policy to do so yes in that sense I 2 would be 3 Senator Warren Okay So let me ask this then from 4 one more perspective and that is during the Ukraine crisis 5 we have seen that a well-functioning declassification 6 system can be incredibly powerful 7 administration to expose what the Intelligence Committee 8 knew about Putin's plans seriously hurt Russia's credibility 9 and it strengthened our response to an illegal and immoral The work by the Biden 10 war 11 to make that happen and I applaud that but we need more of 12 it 13 My understand is that it took reshuffling of resources The most recent numbers that I have seen is that we 14 spend $18 billion protecting the classification system and 15 only about $102 million -- do the math fast in your head 16 about 5 percent of that number -- on declassification 17 efforts and that ratio feels off in a democracy 18 So with that in mind Director Haines are there any 19 lessons learned from Ukraine about how we can expedite 20 declassification when there is a compelling reason to do so 21 Ms Haines I think there are lessons to be learned 22 from Ukraine and it will be easier to talk about this in 23 closed session but I think there is some value that we 24 could discuss in closed session on those issues 25 I do think it has helped to help other people Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 56 1 understand the value of ensuring that we are classifying 2 things at the appropriate level and how declassification can 3 support foreign policy in different ways 4 is all to the good 5 Senator Warren Good So I think that You know in a democracy we 6 have a duty to be accountable to the public and when we 7 keep secrets from Americans there needs to be a compelling 8 public interest in doing so 9 that public officials err on the side of secrecy because the And in too many cases it seems 10 information could be embarrassing or even worse just 11 because it is easier not to be accountable to the American 12 people 13 14 15 16 So I urge all of our agencies to address this problem and I look forward to working with you on it Senator King Thank you On behalf of the chairman Senator Tuberville 17 Senator Tuberville 18 Director Haines in your best assessment does Russia 19 20 21 22 Thank you Senator Good morning intelligence closely monitor our Secretary of Defense Ms Haines I think Russian intelligence tries very closely to monitor all of our senior leaders Senator Tuberville Thank you So you believe that 23 noted that when he said that Russia weakened and that the 24 U S will move heaven and earth to arm Ukraine do you 25 believe that is right he should say that Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 57 1 Ms Haines 2 Senator Tuberville Yes I think the Secretary of Defense -Do you believe Russia blames the 3 U S Intelligence Community for helping Ukraine shoot down a 4 Russian plane carrying hundreds of people 5 6 Ms Haines I am sorry sir Can you repeat the question 7 Senator Tuberville Do you believe Russia blames us 8 our intelligence agency for Ukraine shooting down a plane 9 with hundreds of troops on board 10 Do you think Russia blames us for that 11 Ms Haines 12 Senator Tuberville Which plane are you thinking of There was a plane recently that 13 was shot down a Russian plane that 100 troops 14 believe that they blame our intelligence agency for that 15 Ms Haines 16 Senator Tuberville Do you I do not know sir Okay Do you believe that Russia 17 blames our U S intelligence for sinking their flagship 18 Moskva 19 20 Do you think they blame us for that Ms Haines I do not know sir We have not seen any direct reporting 21 Senator Tuberville To what extent do you assess that 22 Russia believe it is at war with the West and the United 23 States 24 us 25 Do you think that they believe they are at war with Ms Haines Trustpoint One Alderson Russia has historically believed that they www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 58 1 are in a conflict in effect with NATO and the United 2 States on a variety of issues including in cyber and so on 3 Senator Tuberville So you believe that they are 4 fighting us -- that they are fighting us as well as they are 5 fighting Ukraine Correct 6 Ms Haines 7 Senator Tuberville Yeah 8 them and we are talking Okay 9 In a sense Their perception -Yeah because we are arming General Berrier does the United States or Ukraine have 10 air superiority over the war zone 11 superiority 12 General Berrier Which one has air Senator I would call that an air 13 standoff right now 14 aircraft over the line of troops in a local area but they 15 cannot expand into western parts of Ukraine without coming 16 under an air threat 17 I mean the Russians can fly a tactical Senator Tuberville But Ukraine is more than we are 18 the United States obviously because we not involved in 19 their air space 20 General Berrier 21 Senator Tuberville 22 23 No we are not involved Would you say that Russia possess strong air defenses General Berrier I think the Russians have very 24 credible air defense systems 25 Senator Tuberville Trustpoint One Alderson Does Ukraine have any counter www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 59 1 measures to thwart Russia artillery rockets 2 have any air defenses 3 General Berrier Does Ukraine Ukraine has air defenses They also 4 have counter-battery radars that allow them to defend 5 themselves from incoming artillery or at least see it 6 Senator Tuberville Would you agree that anyone in 7 Ukraine right now is under serious threat 8 are Obviously they 9 Correct General Berrier 10 I would agree they are Senator Tuberville Okay In the past 2 weeks we have 11 seen several high-profile visitors take trips to active war 12 zone 13 of the House First Lady 14 our Intelligence Community doing to lessen the risk of a 15 high-ranking official -- how are we protecting these people 16 going to Ukraine our people going to Ukraine 17 18 19 Our Secretary of State Secretary of Defense Speaker General Berrier This is for both of you Senator I think that would be a discussion for the closed session Senator Tuberville Okay So we could guarantee that 20 the First Lady was safe when she went to Ukraine 21 guarantee that 100 percent 22 just asking 23 24 25 What is General Berrier Correct We could Both of you I would not say that no I am I would not say that Senator Tuberville Trustpoint One Alderson Thank you www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com Is it your best advice 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 60 1 that we do not go to Ukraine right now any of us any of us 2 in here 3 General Berrier Senator I would not say that I 4 would say with proper planning and coordination that it is 5 possible 6 Senator Tuberville General 100 percent One hundred 7 percent can we guarantee going into a war zone -- our 8 Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State went on a train 9 10 11 General Berrier Senator I do not think we can ever guarantee anything 100 percent Senator Tuberville Thank you Well that is kind of 12 the point I am making 13 bear here saying you know we are bragging about it 14 even President Biden said today Wait a minute 15 got to cut back on this pointing that you know how many 16 generals have been killed and we are part of it 17 agree with that 18 Ukraine 19 that step forward to where we get a lot of our men and women 20 involved in this 21 taking way too many changes of sending people over there for 22 a photo op other than doing the right thing which we are 23 doing 24 25 You know we are kind of poking the And We have I totally I totally agree that hey we want to help Obviously we all do But we do not want to take And it looks like to me we that we are But we just do not need to step over that path Thank you for what you are doing but I think all of us need to look at that point of hey there is a point of no Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 61 1 return here if we cross that line 2 other side the same way and we had somebody helping we 3 had a plane shot down a ship sink and then bragging about 4 killing generals as Senator Cotton said you know we are 5 walking a tightrope here 6 7 And that is just the only point I want to bring up Thank you very much 8 Senator King 9 Senator Kelly 10 And if we were on the On behalf of the chair Senator Kelly Thank you Mr Chairman Director Haines again looking at your office's 2022 11 Annual Threat Assessment it is clear there is a lot going on 12 in the world right now and I understand that resources are 13 finite and tradeoffs often have to be made 14 large part what makes your job very challenging 15 the situation in Ukraine is taking up a lot of bandwidth 16 right now and I would presume that INDOPACOM requires 17 significant amount of resources as well to fully understand 18 the threat environment and these two things are obviously 19 related 20 That is in a Clearly But what about some other regions in the world In 21 light of the worldwide threats you have articulated here 22 today do you feel the Intelligence Community has the 23 necessary resources in place to confidently understand the 24 threat environment in other places such as Afghanistan 25 northern Syria Pakistan and Iran Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 62 1 Ms Haines Thank you Senator I mean I think you 2 know like all good bureaucrats that we could spend more 3 money on these issues 4 certainly that is true 5 you indicate to ensure that we are not taking our eye off 6 the ball essentially across the globe on issues that are 7 also of critical importance among the ones that you have 8 identified 9 Senator Kelly There is no question I think But we are doing our very best as Thank you I want to ask a specific 10 question about the MQ-9 the Reaper drones 11 Force has been reluctant to invest in upgrading the platform 12 and proposes to retire it potentially like in 2035 even as 13 the demand from combatant commanders for the system remains 14 high 15 is not survivable in China-Russia scenario 16 pretty clear that it would be survivable in a Russian 17 scenario now 18 So the Air You know their argument has been that the platform I think it is Do you have an opinion on the continued utility of 19 reconnaissance platforms such as the MQ-9 particular as we 20 face increased activity in the so-called gray zone below 21 the threshold of armed combat 22 Ms Haines 23 General Berrier 24 Ms Haines 25 General Berrier Trustpoint One Alderson Yeah Go ahead No no Senator I have been the beneficiary www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 63 1 of MQ-9 operations for the last 20 years 2 outstanding platform 3 increasing threats emanating from China and their ability to 4 reach out and touch those kinds of things I totally 5 understand why the Air Force wants to divest of that 6 platform 7 intensity conflict counterterrorism operations it will 8 always be useful in a low air defense kind of environment 9 but in the high-end environment I do not think it is very 10 11 It is an It has done great things With The efficacy of that in the coming years in low- survivable Senator Kelly But we have looked at the Russian 12 surface-to-air missile threat environment as high end 13 turns out like a lot of things day 1 of the war is much 14 different than day 60 or 90 or 180 of any conflict 15 am concerned that not only this platform but sometimes we 16 look at divesting you know from platforms that could 17 provide incredible utility further along in the timeline 18 It So I General I have got another question for you here in my 19 last minute anti-satellite ban on ASAT testing 20 Administration recently announced this 21 agree with 22 do they abide by any kind of similar policy 23 and the Chinese both over the last about decade and a 24 half have performed ASAT tests the Russians more recently 25 The DIA's 2022 report on challenges to security in Trustpoint One Alderson The It is a policy I Russia China they do not share this goal nor www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com The Russians 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 64 1 space lists orbital debris as a significant challenge to 2 space operations and concluded that the debris endangers 3 spacecraft of all nations in low-earth orbit including 4 astronauts and cosmonauts aboard the ISS but also China has 5 a space station as well 6 Given the fact that both the Russians and Chinese 7 conduct manned space operations what would be your 8 assessment as to why they continue to put their people in 9 harm's way by conducting these dangerous tests 10 General Berrier Senator I think they value that 11 capability in space as an asymmetric advantage over our 12 superior technology and continue to pursue those kinds of 13 capabilities 14 another discussion 15 Senator Kelly 16 17 Whether or not they would actually use it is Do you expect them to do more anti- satellite tests General Berrier We have not seen evidence that they 18 plan in the near future of doing more but I would expect 19 as they go through their development processes they will do 20 more tests 21 22 Senator Kelly All right Thank you General and thank you Director Haines 23 Chairman Reed 24 Senator Rounds please 25 Senator Rounds Trustpoint One Alderson Presiding Thank you Senator Kelly Thank you Mr Chairman www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com Let me begin 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 65 1 by thanking both of you for your continued service to our 2 country 3 Director Haines in April Secretary Blinken told 4 Congress that Iran's attempts to assassinate former 5 Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were real and ongoing and 6 this month Israeli press reported that an agent for the 7 Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force was thwarted from 8 an assassination attempt on a U S general in Germany 9 Why is Iran apparently so emboldened right now and how 10 can the Intelligence Community and national security 11 communities at large change this dangerous trend and deter 12 Iran from these malicious actions 13 Ms Haines Thank you Senator So I think we should 14 probably pick this up in closed session 15 say in open session is a fair amount of their motivation in 16 this area we assess to be in relation to Soleimani as part 17 of their sort of efforts for revenge and it is a 18 particularly challenging area I think to deter them from 19 action in this space 20 think in closed session 21 Senator Rounds What I think I can But we can discuss more specifics I Thank you sir Very well Director Haines once 22 again 23 literally exploded under this Administration and continues 24 to deteriorate 25 Department of Homeland Security are preparing for as high as The crisis at the United States southern border has Trustpoint One Alderson Reuters reported that U S officials at the www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 66 1 9 000 arrests per day 2 conditions in Latin America continue to spark waves of 3 migration that put pressure on our southern border how 4 serious does the Intelligence Community see this as a threat 5 to our country and also how and to what degree is the 6 Intelligence Community shifting resources to address the 7 surge at our southern border 8 Ms Haines As the economic and political Thank you Senator We have stood up a 9 migrant crisis cell which is essentially a cell that helps 10 to bring together intelligence from across the community to 11 support DHS's efforts and it is really looking south of the 12 border at effectively migrant movements that may be coming 13 towards the southern border so that we can help them to 14 prepare in effect for encounters on the border 15 Senator Rounds Are you in agreement with the 16 assessment that there could be as many as 9 000 arrests a 17 day 18 Is that an assessment that you would concur with Ms Haines 19 questions 20 Security 21 Sir I do not look at those particular That is within the Department of Homeland Senator Rounds I am just curious because when you are 22 doing your planning to determine what your needs are 23 clearly in order for you to do the planning you have got to 24 have an assessment of what the expected flow would be 25 just curious Trustpoint One Alderson I am It is not meant as a gotcha question www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 67 1 Ms Haines No no no Of course So we do not 2 assess our needs along the border because we do not actually 3 have needs along the border 4 of the DHS role is to figure out how can we plan for the 5 number of incidents or encounters that they will have on the 6 border 7 what are the drivers what are the ultimate flows that are 8 likely to occur and we try to set up intelligence so that 9 we can actually provide some indication and warning of here In other words that is sort And for us what we are trying to do is understand 10 is where you are likely to see an increase in the flow 11 either south or north or how it is and where it is coming 12 from ultimately 13 Does that make sense Senator Rounds It does It just catches me a little 14 bit by surprise that in your planning that most certainly 15 you have to have a good communication with Homeland 16 Security 17 -- I am assuming there is a good communication there 18 Ms Haines 19 Senator Rounds Of course -- and that based upon what their 20 needs are is really what you are doing is providing them 21 with additional resources 22 time gathering intel based on the possibility the strong 23 possibility that individuals would try to come in through 24 the southern border 25 curious and I know that we are in a public discussion but Trustpoint One Alderson And you are also at the same And based upon that I was just www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 68 1 nonetheless I think it is something that has been talked 2 about publicly and the fact that we have got folks from all 3 over the world that are using that as an entryway into the 4 United States and most certainly you are aware of that 5 Ms Haines Absolutely No I am not trying to sort 6 of duck the question or anything 7 a very high flow 8 the Department of Homeland Security we have somebody who is 9 a liaison that sits within their sort of spaces that tells I think you know we see There is no question What happens is 10 here are the requirements and they basically are looking 11 for indications and warning of you know we are likely to 12 see a flow along this part of the border that sort of 13 thing as opposed to us being able to help them determine 14 okay today you are going to see X number of people coming 15 through the southern border as a whole 16 Senator Rounds Thank you Just one other quick 17 question 18 working to flesh out the Foreign Malign Influence Center's 19 mission the budget and size among other issues 20 the 2022 midterms almost here we are probably behind the 21 curve a little bit 22 23 24 25 The Intelligence Community and Congress are But with What are the major roadblocks stopping the IC from standing up this intelligence center Ms Haines We have just gotten appropriations basically through the fiscal year 2022 budget which has Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 69 1 been great and we are currently building up the Foreign 2 Malign Influence Center 3 Executive so we have been doing work on what the threats 4 might be to our elections 5 Foreign Malign Influence Center and we effectively have the 6 budget for up to 12 people in the Foreign Malign Influence 7 Center under this context and we have asked for funding for 8 fiscal year 2023 essentially to be able to expand it by 9 about three people but also to allow us to access expertise 10 and knowledge that we think is critical and really just to 11 help facilitate what the community is doing across the board 12 on these issues 13 Senator Rounds 14 My time has expired We already has the Election Threat That is now pulled into the Thank you 15 Chairman Reed 16 Senator Kaine please 17 Senator Kaine Thank you Mr Chairman Thank you Senator Rounds Thank you Mr Chair and thanks to our 18 witnesses 19 undersea cables 20 communication rely on a robust undersea cable network 21 500 000 miles across the sea floor globally 22 global banking transactions the SWIFT system diplomatic 23 cables encrypted military communications are a few of the 24 myriad applications that rely on this network 25 I want to ask about two items The first is Ninety-five percent of global Internet Two NATO commands the Joint Support and Enabling Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 70 1 Command in Ulm Germany and Joint Force Command in Norfolk 2 are monitoring threats against undersea cables in the 3 Atlantic but the vast majority of these cables are 4 controlled by private sector companies 5 France Spain Japan China these companies and contractors 6 who work with them such as Google and Amazon oversee the 7 planning production design deployment and maintenance of 8 the cables 9 In the U S To what extent is the DoD and IC looking at integrating 10 and communicating with these private actors so that we can 11 monitor threats to the cables 12 General Berrier Senator I am going to take that one 13 for action and do a little homework to get you a fulsome 14 answer 15 Senator Kaine And I would like additionally to know 16 whether China Russia or other malign actors have an 17 organic capability to map our networks to cut into or tap 18 into them to listen to military or other government 19 communications 20 21 22 23 So I would like a response back to that Here is my second question unless Director Haines you have something to offer on the undersea cable Ms Haines Thank you sir I actually would love to do it in closed session if that is all right 24 Senator Kaine 25 Ms Haines Trustpoint One Alderson I will look forward to that Okay www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 71 1 Senator Kaine Now a question about intelligence 2 estimates of the strength of other militaries 3 there were a number of estimates that the Afghan military 4 would perform much better than they did and there were a 5 number of estimates that the Russian military was much 6 stronger than it has proven to be 7 assess why we overestimated the strength of both of those 8 militaries and recalibrating the way we assess military 9 strength of other nations 10 General Berrier I think So what are we doing to Senator I will start We are taking 11 a holistic view of how we do analysis and evaluate foreign 12 militaries 13 we have with our foreign partners understanding their 14 militaries understanding their understanding of adversary 15 militaries and working an all-source assessment to have 16 granularity inside the capabilities of these militaries 17 You know it start with the relationships that Certainly the ANDSF was an issue Certainly the 18 overestimation of Russian capability was an issue 19 you back up if you look at Russia's growth since the early 20 2000 their war in Chechnya their war in Georgia what they 21 did in Ukraine their operations in Syria and you 22 understand the reforms that they went through we saw that 23 from the outside 24 sort of this hollow force lack of NCO corps lack of 25 leadership training lack of effective doctrines Trustpoint One Alderson But if What we did not see from the inside was www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com So those 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 72 1 are the intangibles that we have got to be able to get our 2 arms around as an Intelligence Community to really 3 understand 4 Senator Kaine Thank you 5 Chairman Reed Thank you Senator Kaine 6 Senator Wicker please 7 Senator Wicker I yield back Thank you Mr Chairman General 8 Berrier let me quote from your prepared statement 9 Beijing appears willing to defer the use of military force 10 as long as it considers that unification with Taiwan can be 11 negotiated and that the cost of conflict outweigh the 12 benefits 13 General Berrier I believe the United States should 14 prepare Taiwan and send a clear message to Beijing that a 15 military invasion would be too costly 16 primary objective of the United States and its allies with 17 regard to Taiwan should not be so much to repel a Chinese 18 attack but to prevent it from ever occurring 19 I also believe the So General from your assessment of China's 20 capabilities and timeline as well as Taiwan's current 21 defensive posture what needs to be done 22 United States be doing for or supplying to Taiwan in order 23 to prevent a Chinese attack from ever occurring 24 25 General Berrier What can the Senator thank you for that question First I would say that I believe the PRC would rather not Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 73 1 do it by force 2 peacefully over time 3 with Taiwan 4 interesting lessons from the Ukrainian conflict like how 5 important leadership is how important small-unit tactics 6 are how important an NCO corps is and really effective 7 training with the right weapon systems and what those 8 system with the right people would be able to do to thwart 9 that 10 I think they would rather do this There are some things that we can do I think they are learning some very So I think we have to engage with our INDOPACOM 11 partners within the Department of Defense the Taiwan 12 military and leadership to help them understand what this 13 conflict has been about what lessons they can learn and 14 where they should be focusing their dollars on defense and 15 their training 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Senator Wicker at this point General Berrier They have a largely conscript force I do not believe it is where it should be Senator Wicker And so the volunteer part of their armed forces is that where it should be the non-conscript General Berrier 23 period 24 response 25 Is their NCO corps where it should be They have a very short enlistment I can provide you additional details in a written Senator Wicker Trustpoint One Alderson Okay You also have written that the www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 74 1 PLA Navy is the largest navy in the world and has the 2 capability to conduct long-range precision strikes against 3 land targets from its submarine and surface combatants 4 later have written that Russia is fielding its new quote 5 ultra-quiet submarine capable of threatening North 6 America from the Pacific Ocean 7 You General do you assess that China and Russia will 8 continue to grow both of their naval fleets and invest in 9 new capabilities 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 General Berrier Yes I do believe they will both invest in new capabilities and grow their fleets Senator Wicker And is the United States on pace to build and commission as many ships as China is building General Berrier I would refer that question to the Secretary of the Navy and Chief of Naval Operations Senator Wicker But surely the Intelligence Community 17 has an assessment of that 18 General Berrier 19 20 21 22 DIA has an assessment of Russian naval capabilities and Chinese PLAN capabilities Senator Wicker And DIA is familiar with what the public plans of the Navy are at this point General Berrier Probably but I think the Navy will 23 make those investment decisions based on how they perceive 24 the threat as well and we will certainly collaborate with 25 our partners in the Navy on any of that Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 75 1 Senator Wicker Let me switch to Afghanistan 2 Director Haines you submitted the 2022 Office of Director 3 of National Intelligence Annual Threat Assessment 4 Afghanistan the report says that the Taliban takeover 5 threatens U S interests that 500 000 Afghan refugees could 6 attempt to cross into surrounding countries and that almost 7 certainly terrorist groups will establish and expand safe 8 havens from which to plot attacks 9 On So Madam Director given these assessments in your 10 office's Annual Threat Assessment would you assess that the 11 chaotic U S withdrawal from Afghanistan has left the 12 homeland more susceptible to terrorist attacks 13 Ms Haines Thank you Senator I agreed with what 14 General Barrier indicated earlier on about the threat 15 essentially that we are seeing from al Qaeda and from ISIS- 16 K which is to say that we see ISIS-K as the more concerning 17 threat 18 have the capability to essentially affect external attacks 19 directed from Afghanistan to the United States at this 20 stage but they could build that capability over time and 21 they certainly have the intent to do so 22 At this point we do not assess that they currently With al Qaeda we are not seeing as much of a threat 23 and that does not mean that it could not grow over time and 24 that is obviously something that we are monitoring during 25 this period Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 76 1 2 3 Senator Wicker General Berrier has the exit from Afghanistan left our homeland more vulnerable General Berrier Senator I would not more vulnerable 4 but this is certainly an issue that the Intelligence 5 Community has to keep on the warm plate if you will to 6 make sure that we can monitor those networks what they are 7 doing and where they are migrating to 8 Senator Wicker 9 Chairman Reed Thank you both Thank you very much Senator Wicker 10 Senator King please 11 Senator King 12 Madam Director I am concerned about the leaks last Thank you Mr Chairman 13 week the details of intelligence that is being shared with 14 the Ukrainians both in terms of sources and methods 15 alerting the Russians what we know perhaps how we know it 16 and also feeding Vladimir Putin's paranoia about conflict 17 with the West 18 those leaks from last week 19 Are you actively pursuing the source of Ms Haines Thank you Senator We obviously always 20 actively pursue any information that we have that indicates 21 that anybody may be disclosing classified information you 22 know without authorization 23 Senator King I hope you will pursue that because I 24 think sometimes leaks are embarrassing 25 much about them Trustpoint One Alderson We do not worry too But I think in this case they were www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 77 1 harmful and I hope that this will be an active 2 investigation 3 A question to both of you We all believe that the 4 Intelligence Community did a really excellent job of 5 predicting the invasion alerting the world as to what was 6 going on what the disposition of Russian troops were the 7 involvement of Belarus all of that 8 will to fight of the Ukrainians and the leadership of 9 Zelenskyy What we missed was the And we also missed that in Afghanistan Within 10 12 months we missed the will to fight 11 Afghans' will to fight underestimated the Ukrainians will 12 to fight We overestimated the 13 I realize will to fight is a lot harder to assess than 14 number of tanks or volume of ammunition or something but I 15 hope that the Intelligence Community is doing some soul- 16 searching about how to better get a handle on that question 17 because we had testimony in this committee and in the 18 Intelligence Committee that Kyiv was going to fall in 3 or 19 4 days and war would last 2 weeks and that turned out to be 20 grossly wrong 21 assess will to fight and domestic leadership 22 Ms Haines Are you looking at this question of how to Yes Senator You heard from General 23 Berrier obviously a number of things that DIA is doing 24 For the Intelligence Community writ large we have a process 25 at the National Intelligence Council taking a look at these Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 78 1 issues 2 fight and capacity in effect and the two of them are 3 issues that are as you indicated quite challenging to 4 provide effective analysis on 5 different methodologies for doing so 6 I would say that it is a combination of will to Senator King And we are looking at This is your lane assessing military 7 capability and a big part as you testified earlier the 8 reason the Ukrainian war is going the way it is is that the 9 Ukrainians are fighting for their land and the Russians do 10 11 not have the same will to fight I hope that this is something you are focused upon 12 because again I think we failed on this question in 13 Afghanistan 14 over that the government would last 6 months or a year 15 beyond the departure of U S troops 16 weeks 17 And in Afghanistan we had testimony over and It lasted minus 2 Is this something that you are focused upon General Berrier Senator I am focused on it and I 18 really appreciate this dialogue because I think there is an 19 important nuance that we have to discuss 20 to fight and the other is the capacity to fight 21 briefings we talked about this capacity to fight and given 22 the correlation of forces that the Russians had and what the 23 Ukrainians had it was the thought of senior analysts that 24 it was not going to go very well for a variety of factors 25 One is the will In closed But there was never an Intelligence Community Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 79 1 assessment that said the Ukrainians lacked the will to 2 fight 3 fight -- 4 Those assessments talked about their capacity to Senator King Yeah but there was not an assessment 5 that they did either 6 overrun in a matter of weeks 7 General Berrier 8 will to fight 9 just said The assessment was Ukraine would be That was grossly wrong Grossly wrong but not a question of It was capacity at that time as the DNI 10 So we are taking a look at that and we are -- 11 Senator King 12 13 14 15 16 17 Are you saying Ukrainians' will to fight has not been an important part of this struggle General Berrier No I am not saying that I think it has been everything Senator King And that is what we did not know Correct General Berrier Well we assessed their capacity to 18 face the size of the Russian forces that were amassed on 19 their border was going to be very difficult for them 20 Senator King Well I all I am saying is the 21 Intelligence Community needs to do a better job on this 22 issue 23 24 25 General Berrier I think the Intelligence Community did a great job on this issue Senator and we will -Senator King Trustpoint One Alderson General how can you possibly say that www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 80 1 when we were told explicitly Kyiv would fall in 3 days and 2 Ukraine would fall in 2 weeks 3 accurate intelligence 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 General Berrier You are telling me that was So we were really focused on the Russian forces at the time and so when we backed -Senator King we not And we were wrong about that too were We overestimated the Russians General Berrier Well the Intelligence Community did a great job in predicting and talking -Senator King And I acknowledged that at the beginning 11 of my question 12 they failed at was predicting what was going to happen after 13 Russia invaded 14 I understand that General Berrier Yes they did What So as I look at the totality of the 15 entire operation I think the enormity rests on the 16 predictions of what the Russians were going to do versus 17 whether or not the Ukrainians were going to be successful 18 19 20 Senator King Well if you do not concede there was a problem on this then we have got a problem General Berrier Senator I did not say that We are 21 going to take a hard look at this but I think in the 22 totality of the entire operation there were a lot more 23 successes than failures 24 25 Senator King I will not argue that point I am just trying to make a point that I think there was a major issue Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 81 1 that we missed that had a significant influence on how this 2 has unfolded and had we had a better handle on the 3 prediction we could have done more to assist the Ukrainians 4 earlier 5 Thank you Mr Chairman 6 Chairman Reed 7 Senator Hawley please 8 Senator Hawley 9 Director Haines and General is it your sense that Thank you Senator King Thank you Mr Chairman 10 Beijing thinks that it has a window of opportunity to invade 11 Taiwan before Taiwan and the United States modernize and get 12 into better position to deter any such invasion 13 start with you Director 14 Ms Haines Thank you Senator Let us It is our view that 15 they are working hard to effectively put themselves into a 16 position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan 17 over our intervention 18 timelines and so on for how quickly they think they may be 19 able to achieve that but I think that is something that 20 they are trying to achieve even as what General Berrier 21 stated earlier is true which is to say that they would 22 prefer not to have to use military force to take Taiwan 23 They would prefer to use other means 24 25 Senator Hawley We can talk in closed session about General do you want to comment on this Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 82 1 General Berrier Well I know there are a lot of dates 2 out there Senator -- 2027 2030 2049 3 their mind 4 is taking away from this conflict right now 5 that they would be the right ones 6 to take some time to sort out whether or not he believes 7 this is a window or that his timeline would extend 8 Certainly it is on We are not really sure what lessons Xi Jinping Senator Hawley We would hope But I think it is going Let me ask you about something that 9 Admiral Davidson said when he was Commander of PACOM 10 told the committee last March that he worried about a 11 Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next 6 years 12 testimony 13 said that he views the timeline to be shrinking 14 He That is his His successor Admiral Aquilino has similarly Based on the indicators -- Director let me start with 15 you on this -- based on the indicators available to the 16 Intelligence Community do you agree that the threat to 17 Taiwan is acute between now and 2030 18 Ms Haines Yes I think it is fair to say that it is 19 critical or acute between now and 2030 20 absolutely fair 21 whatever lessons China learns coming out of the Russia- 22 Ukraine crisis might affect that time as well as as you 23 indicated whether or not our capabilities Taiwan's 24 capabilities other decisions that will have to be made 25 between now and then that will affect the timeline Trustpoint One Alderson I think that is What is hard to tell is how for example www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 83 1 Senator Hawley General you said just a second ago 2 that you hoped China would learn some lessons from the 3 Ukraine conflict 4 take away 5 What is it that you are hoping that they General Berrier Just how difficult a cross-strait 6 invasion might be and how dangerous and high risk that might 7 be 8 9 We saw -Senator Hawley Sorry But do you not think that the Chinese military is significantly more capable than the 10 Russians 11 King was pressing you on we pretty dramatically 12 overestimated the strength of the Russian military 13 be surprised for one if China's military strength proves 14 to so attenuated 15 dealing with a significantly more formidable adversary in 16 China 17 18 19 As it turns out just to pick up what Senator I would I mean do you not think that we are General Berrier I think China is a formidable adversary Senator Hawley So I mean back to lessons learned 20 Unfortunately I think one lesson they can draw from the 21 Ukraine conflict is that deterrence did not work in Ukraine 22 I mean Russia invaded Ukraine 23 be having this conversation about Taiwan in any period of 24 years not next year not in 5 years not in 10 years 25 I for one do not want to So my sense of urgency on this is we better figure out Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 84 1 how deterrence is going to work in Taiwan because if China 2 is successful in a fait accompli that is going to look a lot 3 different than a Russian scenario in Ukraine 4 agree with that 5 General Berrier 6 Senator Hawley Would you not I do agree with that So just to that end Director let me 7 come back to you 8 Community was able to give us lead time on was a potential 9 Russian invasion of Ukraine One of the things that the Intelligence I mean we are very clear on 10 that that there was a strong likelihood of that and you 11 had that month in advance actually 12 I am curious if you think that we would get similar 13 strategic warning about a potential Chinese invasion of 14 Taiwan 15 Ms Haines I mean it is too early to tell honestly 16 whether or not that would be the case and obviously you 17 know in a kind of classic intelligence way we would sure as 18 hell not promise anything at this stage 19 Senator Hawley General let me ask you about 20 something that has long been a concern of mine and even 21 more so now and that is what I think of as the simultaneity 22 problem simultaneous conflicts in Western Europe with 23 Russia and with China 24 25 So do you worry that Beijing might see an opportunity to invade Taiwan in the very near future should the United Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 85 1 States get drawn into an actual conflict a kinetic conflict 2 with Russia 3 General Berrier 4 Senator Hawley 5 General Berrier I think that is a remote possibility Which part is remote The part that China would see that as 6 a window to open to take advantage of that based on the 7 fact that they probably are not ready to do that right now 8 9 Senator Hawley So you do not think they have the capacity right now to invade Taiwan 10 General Berrier 11 Senator Hawley 12 13 14 15 16 I did not say that Well I am trying to drill down on what you mean when you say that they would not do it General Berrier I think they probably have -- actually could we take this into the closed session Senator Hawley Sure Yeah absolutely And my time has expired so I will take it up with you then 17 Thank you Mr Chairman 18 Chairman Reed 19 Senator Manchin please 20 Senator Manchin 21 Sir just real quick back on Taiwan again Thank you Senator Hawley Thank you Mr Chairman Do you 22 think Taiwan is prepared to defend itself 23 evaluation of what Taiwan has been doing the only thing I 24 keep seeing is they want more F-16s and we think they are 25 going to be able to go to air war with China and defend Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com In your 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 86 1 Taiwan I do not think so 2 General Berrier I think Taiwan could do more sir 3 Senator Manchin Are you all strategically giving them 4 different things that they can use whether it be in the sea 5 or on land to protect their island 6 General Berrier I think they are in close 7 consultation with our partners in INDOPACOM and within the 8 Department of Defense 9 Senator Manchin Mm-hmm How about Ukraine Can 10 Ukraine win now that we have as Senator King so rightfully 11 pointed out and Senator Hawley followed up on we misread 12 that one 13 win if we continue to support without us being pulled into 14 a land war with them On their own can they win 15 General Berrier I think that is a difficult Are we reading it now they have the ability to 16 prediction to make 17 at is a prolonged stalemate should no factor change on 18 either side 19 what they are doing and we continue to do what we are doing 20 for the Ukrainians 21 Right now I think where the agency is In other words the Russians continue to do Senator Manchin I see that as a stalemate not a -Director Haines how do you evaluate 22 this 23 and evaluating them 24 answer is our ability to maintain and manufacture the 25 weapons that are needed to not only help Ukraine not only I am sure that you have been kept up to speed on this Trustpoint One Alderson My other concern you might want to www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 87 1 to backfill our allies but also keep our own supply chains 2 up Are we running critically low 3 could put ourselves in a dangerous situation 4 Ms Haines Could it be that we Thank you Senator So I think a few 5 things 6 something we can do maybe a little bit in closed session is 7 talk about not just our military assistance to Ukraine but 8 also a number of other countries that have provided military 9 assistance to Ukraine 10 One is just taking your last question first Senator Manchin -- ask the question are you 11 concerned about the ability to have the supplies that are 12 needed for us for our allies and what Ukraine is going to 13 need to sustain and hopefully win this war 14 Ms Haines So that is why I was talking about the 15 allies piece 16 frankly between all of us there is the capacity to provide 17 the kind of assistance that they are asking for 18 No I am not concerned because I think Senator Manchin Okay And can you identify the hot 19 spots we are very much concerned about other than China 20 because we know China is the challenge we have 21 spots that we are worried about that could rise up during 22 this very difficult time and the geopolitical interests 23 that we have in the world 24 Some of the one you are more watching and concerned about 25 General Berrier Trustpoint One Alderson I mean in Iran Other hot North Korea The agency is worried about North www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 88 1 Korea for sure and their ballistic missile development 2 timeline as well as potential nuclear testing 3 always thinking about Iran and the actions that they have to 4 pull malign influence within the region against our 5 neighbors and certainly U S forces there 6 thinking through how to sustain partnerships to be able to 7 keep a beat on these threats 8 9 Senator Manchin We are We are always Director Haines are you concerned about basically the tensions that we have with UAE and with 10 Saudis and also their more visual movements intentional 11 movements towards China for support or basically the yuan 12 being used now as the currency that they are accepting for 13 payment of energy things of this sort that could also put 14 us in a more precarious situation with UAE and Saudis 15 Ms Haines Thank you Senator I mean obviously as 16 you indicate we are always looking at efforts that both 17 China and Russia make to try to make inroads with partners 18 of ours across the world and UAE and Saudi Arabia are 19 examples of that in both respects 20 Senator Manchin Cybersecurity is my final one for you 21 all 22 people would report whether it is private companies in 23 America that are getting hacked and what is going on but 24 also who is in charge 25 right now within the Federal Government in military Right now it seems like it is a convoluted area where Trustpoint One Alderson Where do they go www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com What is the chain 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 89 1 especially on cyber that you consider the premier spot 2 that we should be working with or are we putting things 3 together 4 agencies 5 Are we still so fragmented throughout our Ms Haines I mean my experience is it has gotten 6 better over the years 7 is one of those things that continues to be worked through 8 But there is a very clear chain of command with respect to 9 taking action -- 10 11 12 Senator Manchin I would never say it is perfect Who is taking the lead It Who takes the lead Ms Haines When it comes to offensive cyber 13 operations to defend the country obviously the Department 14 of Defense does so 15 helping to defend the infrastructure and critical -- right 16 exactly resilience -- it is the Department of Homeland 17 Security and the FBI and everybody has a role to play and 18 we obviously support in the Intelligence Community all of 19 them in the work that they are doing 20 Senator Manchin When it comes to defending you know What about the National Cybersecurity 21 -- how about the center 22 National Cybersecurity Center 23 24 25 Ms Haines How do you all evaluate the You mean the National Cybersecurity Director the new position -Senator Manchin Trustpoint One Alderson All the stakeholders are involved in www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 90 1 that 2 taking the lead 3 agency That is why I am saying it is convoluted Who is the lead person 4 Senator King 5 Ms Haines 6 Senator Manchin 7 Ms Haines 8 Senator Manchin 9 Chairman Reed Who is Who is the lead CISA Yeah CISA is the main -How do you evaluate that I think they are doing very well yeah Okay No further questions Thank you very much Senator Manchin 10 Senator Sullivan please 11 Senator Sullivan Thank you Mr Chairman and I want 12 to thank the witnesses for their hard work during a 13 challenging time 14 energy and I will relay a story I had with Senator McCain 15 and a Russian dissident who has now been arrested Vladimir 16 Kura-Murza 17 I want to focus a lot on the issue of He is in jail right now in Russia About 4 years ago I asked him what was the number one 18 thing we could do to undermine the corrupt Russian regime 19 to undermine Vladimir Putin and he said The number one 20 thing 21 energy 22 That is easy Senator Produce more American Produce more American energy So I want to talk a little bit about that In your 23 assessment is energy independence -- so a couple of years 24 ago we were the largest producer of natural gas in the 25 world the largest producer of oil in the world the largest Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 91 1 producer if renewables in the world -- is that good for 2 America's national security General 3 4 5 General Berrier Senator thanks for the question we have watched this conflict unfold what we -Senator Sullivan I have a got a lot of questions 6 gave you a softball 7 good for America's national security to be energy 8 independent and the world's energy superpower 9 10 Can you answer the question General Berrier Is that good thing Senator Sullivan 12 Ms Haines 13 Senator Sullivan 15 I Certainly energy independence is a 11 14 As How about you Director Yes Okay Thank you for the straightforward answer Now in this conflict with Ukraine what does our 16 ability to produce energy how do the Russians view that and 17 how do our allies view that 18 uses energy as a weapon 19 of the United States to fill the void that the Germans and 20 others have with regard to getting energy from Russia to now 21 get it from the United States 22 in that and is that a good thing for our national security 23 General 24 25 General Berrier We all know Vladimir Putin How are you assessing the ability Is there a lot of interest I certainly believe that our European allies see this as a national security issue for sure and Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 92 1 they are thinking through new ways of developing and getting 2 after their energy needs for sure 3 4 5 Senator Sullivan How about getting some from the United States General Berrier If the United States had excess 6 capacity I am sure that would be something that they would 7 welcome 8 9 Senator Sullivan Do you see that Director similarly 10 Ms Haines 11 Senator Sullivan Yes Let me ask with regard to China 12 Almost 70 percent of China's crude oil supply came in the 13 form of imports 14 energy dependence could or would impact its military 15 operations during a potential cross-strait conflict 16 your assessment when you read up on China's weaknesses are 17 they concerned about their energy dependence with regard to 18 national gas and oil being a major major importer 19 What is your assessment of how China's General Berrier In If there is a way we could take this 20 into the closed session to discuss that that would be 21 better Senator 22 Senator Sullivan 23 General Berrier Okay I do believe they are concerned about 24 their dependence on energy 25 Senator Sullivan Trustpoint One Alderson Director www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 93 1 Ms Haines 2 Senator Sullivan Yes absolutely Do you see that as a strategic 3 advantage we have in our great power competition with China 4 and Russia the fact that we cannot only produce energy for 5 our own country -- and I am talking all of the above -- 6 renewables oil gas 7 advantage for our nation 8 General Berrier 9 Ms Haines Do you see that as a strategic I see it as an advantage Yeah I mean I think frankly our 10 capacity to work with our allies on this issue has been a 11 strategic advantage and our ability to work with them in 12 order to actually help to mitigate against Russia using 13 energy as a weapon has been a major issue 14 15 16 17 18 Senator Sullivan And China's dependence on energy should there be some kind of conflict between us and China Ms Haines Yes The relationship with Russia will be relevant under those circumstances obviously Senator Sullivan Let me ask one final question and 19 it is not really a question on intel 20 getting ready to vote here on a $40 billion package 21 team and I are looking through it 22 assess our NATO partners' commitment finally to hitting 2 23 percent of their GDP for their annual military budgets 24 mean we have now 100 000 troops over in Europe 25 support what the President has been doing in that regard Trustpoint One Alderson You know we are It is a lot www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com My How do you I I fully 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 94 1 But if there was ever a time that countries had to kind of 2 wake up and say you know what for 40 years we promised it 3 at 2 percent 4 at the door or the dragon is at the door whatever metaphor 5 you want 6 The wolf is at the door or maybe the bear is Are you seeing a shift Because the Germans made a big 7 announcement 8 even hit 1 percent of GDP for their defense budget 9 seeing a shift in our NATO allies to say you know what it My understanding is Canada still will not Are you 10 is time for us to pull our own weight here 11 are doing it once again 12 are doing but you know $40 billion that is a lot of 13 money 14 still have NATO allies Canada one who just freeload and 15 it is getting a little tiring 16 The Americans And look I support everything we My constituents have got a lot of needs too and we What is your assessment of our NATO partners' 17 commitment to finally hitting 2 percent now that it is very 18 clear that there is a brutal dictator on their doorstep 19 Ms Haines I think we have seen obviously as you 20 indicated in the opening to your question just a number of 21 countries now announce an increase in their defense budget 22 and I think that is something that we are going to see them 23 follow through on at least in part 24 Senator Sullivan 25 General Berrier Trustpoint One Alderson General And I think this has had a www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 95 1 galvanizing effect on our NATO partners and I think most of 2 them will come around 3 Senator Sullivan Thank you And again I did not 4 start by saying the intel you were providing us and 5 everybody else prior to the war was exceptional and the 6 intel ops that you did were also really impressive 7 appreciate that 8 Chairman Reed 9 Senator Peters please So I Thank you Senator Sullivan 10 Senator Peters 11 Director Haines the 2022 Annual Threat Assessment 12 states quote China presents the broadest most active and 13 persistent cyber espionage threat to the U S government and 14 private sector networks end of quote 15 specifically discusses the capacity for China to conduct 16 surveillance as well as disrupt critical infrastructure 17 Thank you Mr Chairman The assessment My question for you ma'am is does the ODNI believe 18 that China would use their cyber capacity to shape other 19 countries' decisions such as the Russians are known to do 20 Do you believe that is in the cards as well 21 Ms Haines Thank you Senator Yes I mean I think 22 in the sense that in particular our assessment is that 23 China is pursuing significant cyber capabilities in this 24 area in particular to deter the United States from taking 25 action in the event of a conflict for example in their Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 96 1 2 region Senator Peters Thank you Media coverage during the 3 weeks leading up to Russia's invasion often used open-source 4 evidence to support the Administration's intelligence 5 estimates 6 Maxar's commercial satellite network to Russian military 7 communications that were intercepted by tech-savvy 8 civilians 9 Examples here range from images provided by My question for you General Berrier is how is the 10 proliferation of technology and information accessibility 11 for average citizens impacting the realm of professional 12 intelligence work within your agency 13 General Berrier From the perspective of this war 14 between Russia and Ukraine the plethora of open-source data 15 that is available to enrich our assessments has been 16 amazing 17 work that is happening right now using images because most 18 Ukrainian citizens have a cellphone 19 really rich 20 source data that is available publicly available and can 21 be purchased Just think of the third-party damage assessment It has been really And then you combine it with the other open- 22 For us it has been enlightening and will probably shape 23 how we do intelligence operations and analysis going forward 24 in the future 25 right rules at the right time to make sure that we are Trustpoint One Alderson We just have to be careful that we use the www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 97 1 safeguarding information and that we are not violating any 2 laws or policies 3 Senator Peters That actually leads to the next 4 question and you mentioned you are looking at how you 5 integrate that into how you collect information 6 anything that Congress should be doing to help you better 7 enable your abilities to harness the potential for open- 8 source information 9 General Berrier Is there I think we are budgeted for it 10 Senator and we are looking forward to the work ahead as we 11 go forward on this issue 12 Senator Peters 13 Director Haines the Biden administration has done an 14 admirable job certainly of crafting a coalition of nations 15 to impose sanctions enforce export controls against Russia 16 for their illegal invasion 17 Atlantic partners many of them who are now giving up on 18 Russian hydrocarbons something that I think we all would 19 have thought was absolutely unthinkable just a short while 20 ago as well as our global partners Japan and Taiwan 21 actively engaged 22 Good This includes our trans- What has been noticeable though is to see that much 23 of the world is still not with us 24 Russia and I am not saying they are with Russia but they 25 are not subscribing to our call for a global coalition of Trustpoint One Alderson They may not be with www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 98 1 democracies to stand against Ukraine 2 Indonesia Nigeria South Africa and particularly other 3 nations in the global south in which the U S certainly has 4 very friendly relations with but we have not yet been able 5 to get them to join the Ukrainian cause 6 This includes India As the U S will need to certainly build an even more 7 robust coalition of nations in the future to counter 8 potential Chinese aggression I believe it is imperative 9 that the U S understand how to win over these non-aligned 10 11 nations living certainly in a multi-polar world So my question to you in your view what steps should 12 the U S take to build a broader coalition for potential 13 future conflicts similar to what we are seeing right now 14 Ms Haines Thank you Senator From the Intelligence 15 Community perspective we have done a lot of thinking about 16 how we can help to facilitate frankly the policy community 17 in this area to your point and one of the things that we 18 did in the context of Ukraine that I think is possible for 19 us to do in other areas and that we have discussed with the 20 policy community about is basically working key allies and 21 partners who are influencers in effect within specific 22 regions to try to get out to them as much intelligence as 23 we can obviously being mindful of sources and methods 24 just to lay the groundwork so that then the policy community 25 can work with those countries to effectively provide for the Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com But 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 99 1 kind of coalition that you describe 2 And I do think it is an absolutely fundamental piece 3 I mean the fact that the U N General Assembly managed to 4 garner 141 votes I think it was against Russia on the 5 Russia-Ukraine piece was pretty extraordinary 6 think that our capacity to share intelligence in advance of 7 that moment was critical to getting that kind of coalition 8 together and I hope we can do that in the future 9 10 Senator Peters Great Thank you Thank you Mr Chairman 11 Chairman Reed 12 Senator Rosen please 13 Senator Rosen Thank you Senator Peters Thank you Chairman Reed and I really 14 appreciate the witnesses 15 here today and for your service 16 And I do I appreciate you both for being Director Haines and General Berrier given that the 17 Annual Threat Assessment was written before Russia's 18 invasion of Ukraine has Russia's loss and expenditure of 19 military equipment personnel and resources in Ukraine 20 coupled with their frankly poor performance changed our 21 overall threat of Russia and their military capabilities 22 and -- like I said this was written before that -- how do 23 you assess we may need to adjust our planning going forward 24 seeing as what we are learning 25 General Berrier Trustpoint One Alderson I will start with that one Senator www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 100 1 I think you know as we have watched the Russians falter 2 here and the losses that they have sustained we believe that 3 they are going to be set back conventionally for a number of 4 years as they try to recoup these losses and replace all of 5 the equipment and soldiers that they have lost 6 So I think we should back up our assessment really for 7 NATO and what that threat really looks like also factoring 8 in their nuclear capabilities and what that means for NATO 9 going forward 10 Ms Haines So I will just add to this I think you 11 know as we talk to the analysts about this and obviously 12 before each of the threat hearings we discussed this because 13 the threat hearings came after Russia's invasion of Ukraine 14 and as you indicate the assessment was done beforehand and 15 I think the overall threat level has not so much changed as 16 it is the question of how it is evolving to General 17 Berrier's point 18 I think our view is that the ground combat forces have 19 been degraded considerably 20 to basically manage to the extent that they are able to 21 rebuild that in effect and that may end up meaning that 22 they have greater reliance in effect on asymmetric tools 23 during this period 24 nuclear precision et cetera and that is obviously a shift 25 in the way in which they are exercising their efforts for Trustpoint One Alderson It is going to take them years So they rely more on things like cyber www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 101 1 2 influence and so on Senator Rosen Well and knowing that we also know to 3 everyone else's point here too that the world is watching 4 So Director Haines how do you assess the threat level to 5 Taiwan 6 now that Russia has invaded Ukraine 7 the second part of that to you General 8 this as an opportunity maybe this period to invade Ukraine 9 as we might be distracted the world might be distracted 10 11 Has it increased Does China feel more emboldened And then I will give Does China see with the Ukraine crisis Ms Haines Thank you Senator It is hard to tell 12 honestly at this stage 13 happening in the Russia-Ukraine crisis 14 evaluating 15 lessons they learn during this period is not really 16 concluded yet and so it is a little bit harder to tell 17 whether or not is an increased threat of accelerating their 18 efforts toward Taiwan or less so 19 What we see is evaluating what is They are still The crisis obviously still continues So what I would say that thus far the IC has not assessed that 20 the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to accelerate their 21 plan vis-à-vis Taiwan and the kinds of lessons that we 22 think are possible that are relevant just to give you maybe 23 two one is they were surprised by the degree to which the 24 United States and Europe came together to enact sanctions 25 and that is something obviously they are going to be Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 102 1 looking at in the context of Taiwan 2 And the second one I think is this point that really 3 General Berrier made earlier a little bit which is to say 4 that one of the issues for them is the confidence they have 5 that they are able militarily to take action in Taiwan over 6 our intervention 7 over time we think and seeing what happened in Russia 8 that might give them less confidence in some respects over 9 what it is that is likely to happen 10 That will play into their decision-making General Berrier Senator the only thing that I would 11 add is on a day-to-day basis with Chinese military activity 12 I am not seeing anything that would tell me that they are 13 thinking about trying to take advantage of this time that 14 they think that they might have 15 Senator Rosen Let me ask one additional follow-up on 16 that 17 military operations in both theaters should something occur 18 What is your assessment of our ability to conduct General Berrier We have significant capabilities in 19 both theaters 20 with each situation and what that meant 21 have four-star combatant commanders in USEUCOM and 22 INDOPACOM It would depend on what the variables were But that is why we 23 Senator Rosen Thank you 24 Chairman Reed Thank you very much Senator Rosen and 25 Thank you Mr Chairman thank you Madam Director and General Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com We have a vote 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376 103 1 scheduled at 11 45 2 classified session at noon 12 o'clock 3 4 5 We will reconvene in SVC-217 for the And at this time I will recess or adjourn the open session Thank you very much Whereupon at 11 45 a m the hearing was adjourned 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Trustpoint One Alderson www trustpoint one www aldersonreporting com 800 FOR DEPO 800 367 3376