UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 CONFIDENTIAL BEIJIN PAGE 01 02162 01 OF 03 E15 RELEASED IN PART B 1 1 4 B 1 4 1 136 PTQ4687 090033Z ACTION IO-00 INFO LOG-00 INL-00 NP-00 DODE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 AC-01 SA-00 NEA-00 ASDS-01 AIT-03 DS-00 ACQ-00 EAP-00 CIAE-00 EB-00 COME-00 EUR-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 MMP-00 M-00 DCP-01 SNIS-00 NSAE-00 NISC-00 OIC-02 DSCC-00 ACE-00 NFAT-00 SCT-00 SAS-00 AF-00 WHA-00 008W ------------------CF7007 090033Z 38 R 0900312 MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4008 INFO UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI AMEMBASSY RIYADH AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU Classification Extended on 10-18-2007 - Class CONFIDENTIAL - Authority DSCG AMCONSUL SHENYANG 11-1 -- Declassify on 3-8-2021 AMCONSUL SHANGHAI AMCONSUL HONG KONG AIT TAIPEI 6741 AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBAS S Y SEOUL AMEMBAS S Y ROME USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI ZEN AMCONSUL CHENGDU AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI AMEMBASSY TASHKENT AMEMBASSY ALMATY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 BEIJIN AMEMBASSY BAKU AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 02162 01 OF 03 0900332 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 002162 E O 12958 DECL 03 08 11 TAGS PREL KISL PIER ETTC UNSC CH AF PK SUBJECT CHINA AND THE TALIBAN THE START OF A BEAUTIFUL FRIENDSHIP U CLASSIFIED BY A DCM JAMES F MORIARTY REASON 1 5 B AND D REVIEW AUTHORITY Sharon Ahmad Senior Reviewer UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 C SUMMARY RECENT DISCUSSIONS HERE INDICATE A 1 GROWING ACCEPTANCE BY THE CHINESE OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF TALIBAN RULE A BELIEF THAT THE TALIBAN ARE PRAGMATIC PEOPLE WHO CAN MAKE DEALS AND A CONVICTION THAT INTENSIFIED ENGAGEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WITH THE TALIBAN COULD RESULT IN A POSITIVE OUTCOME FOR WHILE INITIALLY RELUCTANT TO DIRECTLY AFGHANISTAN ENGAGE THE TALIBAN DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS BEIJING HAS CARRIED ON A DIALOGUE THROUGH A SERIES OF OFFICIAL AND ACADEMIC EXCHANGES THE CHINESE APPEAR PREPARED TO TAKE AT FACE VALUE TALIBAN PROMISES THAT NO ANTI-CHINA ACTIVITIES WOULD EMANATE FROM TALIBAN-RULED AREAS COMMENT ALTHOUGH THE CHINESE WILL NOT LEAD ANY CHARGE TO RECOGNIZE THE TALIBAN OR END THE TALIBAN'S INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION THEY WOULD BE QUICK TO JOIN SUCH A CONSENSUS IF IT BEGAN TO FORM END SUMMARY AND COMMENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 BEIJIN 02162 01 OF 03 090033Z CHINA WANTS THE AFGHAN WAR RESOLVED 2 C BEIJING'S DESIRE FOR A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION TO THE AFGHAN CONFLICT AND GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE TALIBAN REFLECTS CHINA'S DESIRE FOR A STABLE BORDER WITH AFGHANISTAN THE STABILITY-OBSESSED CHINESE LEADERSHIP ALSO WORRIES ABOUT THE MISCHIEF THAT AN UNFRIENDLY TALIBAN REGIME COULD WREAK IN THE WESTERN MUSLIMDOMINATED REGION OF XINJIANG BY SUPPORTING UIGHUR SEPARATISTS THROUGH THE AFGHAN TERRORIST INFRASTRUCTURE IN LINE WITH ITS OPPOSITION TO INTERFERENCE IN THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF COUNTRIES CHINA PROFESSES TO DESIRE THAT THE U S IRAN RUSSIA PAKISTAN AND OTHERS STOP MEDDLING IN AFGHANISTAN AND THREATENING CHINA'S ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC INTERESTS CHINA'S INCREASINGLY MODERATE AND SYMPATHETIC APPROACH TO THE TALIBAN REFLECTS A BELIEF AMONG OFFICIALS AND ACADEMICS HERE THAT TALIBAN RULE OFFERS THE MOST REALISTIC AND EXPEDITIOUS PROSPECTS FOR RETURNING AFGHANISTAN TO NORMALCY -- AND A HOPE THAT THE TALIBAN WILL NOT SUPPORT UIGHUR SEPARATISM DISPROPORTIONATE REACTION TO XINJIANG INCIDENTS 3 C MFA OFFICIALS AND THINK TANKERS NOTE THAT CHINA'S VIEWS ON AFGHANISTAN HAVE EVOLVED DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS WHILE THE EXTENT OF TALIBAN CULPABILITY UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 IN THE SPORADIC SEPARATIST INCIDENTS IN XINJIANG OVER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 BEIJIN 02162 01 OF 03 090033Z THE YEARS IS HARD TO QUANTIFY SOME UIGHURS HAVE PARTICIPATED IN THE AFGHAN CIVIL WAR THE CHECHYN CONFLICT AND REPORTEDLY IN THE MUJAHIDEEN STRUGGLE IN THE REACTION BY THE CHINESE TO THE FEW INDIAN KASHMIR INCIDENTS THAT DID OCCUR IN XINJIANG APPEARED DISPROPORTIONATE TO THEIR IMPACT REFLECTING THE ATTENTION OF BEIJING'S LEADERSHIP WHILE THE RELATIVE QUIET IN SEPARATIST ACTIVITIES IN XINJIANG IN THE PAST YEAR-AND-A-HALF WAS DUE MORE TO HEAVY-HANDED SECURITY MEASURES THAN TO GOOD RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TALIBAN AND BEIJING THAT QUIET WAS NEVERTHELESS SEEN AS ONE OF THE FRUITS OF A STEADILY GROWING SYMPATHETIC APPROACH TO THE TALIBAN TAKING THE TALIBAN AT THEIR WORD C 4 NOW MINISTRY OFFICIALS TELL US BEIJING IS PREPARED TO TAKE THE TALIBAN AT THEIR WORD THAT NO ANTICHINESE ACTIVITIES WILL BE TOLERATED IN AREAS UNDER TALIBAN CONTROL RECENTLY ASSERTED B1 B6 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION IO-00 BEIJIN INFO NP-00 DODE-00 VC-00 NEA-00 ASDS-01 LOG-00 INL-00 FBIE-00 AC-01 SA-00 02162 02 OF 03 AF-00 WHA-00 TEDE-00 DCP-01 SNIS-00 PTQ4688 090033Z AIT-03 DS-00 INR-00 NSAE-00 NISC-00 ACQ-00 EAP-00 VCE-00 OIC-02 DSCC-00 CIAE-00 EB-00 MMP-00 ACE-00 NFAT-00 COME-00 EUR-00 M-00 SCT-00 SAS-00 008W ------------------CF700D 090033Z 38 R 090031Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4009 INFO UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE AMEMBAS S Y ISLAMABAD AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI AMEMBASSY RIYADH AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU AMCONSUL SHENYANG UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No 017542680 Date 07 10 2014 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No 017542680 Date 07110 2014 AMCONSUL SHANGHAI AMCONSUL HONG KONG AIT TAIPEI 6742 AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY SEOUL AMEMBASSY ROME USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI ZEN AMCONSUL CHENGDU AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI AMEMBASSY TASHKENT AMEMBASSY ALMATY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 BEIJIN AMEMBASSY BAKU AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 02162 02 OF 03 090033Z C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 BEIJING 002162 E O 12958 DECL 03 08 11 TAGS PREL KISL PIER ETTC UNSC CH AF PK SUBJECT CHINA AND THE TALIBAN THE START OF A BEAUTIFUL FRIENDSHIP THAT THE TALIBAN DID NOT COMPLETELY CONTROL ALL THOSE AREAS NOMINALLY UNDER THEIR RULE AND THAT THERE WERE FACTIONS WITHIN THE TALIBAN THAT MIGHT NOT ADHERE TO SUCH A PLEDGE HOWEVER THOSE EXCEPTIONS ASIDE BEIJING APPEARED MORE THAN WILLING TO GIVE MULLAH OMAR A STRONG BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT ON THIS CRITICAL ISSUE SUPPORTIVE AND UNDERSTANDING ATTITUDE 5 C THIS BUILD-UP OF TRUST HAS OCCURRED DESPITE A SURPRISINGLY SMALL NUMBER OF VISITS BY CHINESE DIPLOMATS AND ACADEMICS TO KABUL OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS AN MFA DELEGATION WITH THE PRIMARY MISSION OF ASSESSING THE DAMAGE TO THE CHINESE EMBASSY TRAVELED TO KABUL IN LI SHAOXIAN A RESEARCHER AT THE CHINESE DECEMBER 1998 CONTEMPORARY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS CICIR HEADED A CICIR DELEGATION THAT VISITED AFGHANISTAN FOR A WEEK AT THE END OF NOVEMBER 2000 THE CHINESE AMBASSADOR IN ISLAMABAD THEN VISITED IN DECEMBER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 BEIJIN 02162 02 OF 03 090033Z 2000 COMING THE OTHER WAY A FEW TALIBAN DELEGATIONS HAVE VISITED BEIJING UNDER THE AEGIS OF THINK TANKS UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN DIRECT CONTACTS UNDERTAKEN ORIGINALLY AT PAKISTANI URGING VIA THE CHINESE EMBASSY MFA OFFICIALS HERE HAVE AND THE TALIBAN IN ISLAMABAD OPENLY ACKNOWLEDGED THEY FELT UNCOMFORTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE TALIBAN AND OFTEN BAFFLED BY THEIR BEHAVIOR ADMITTED THAT BEFORE GOING TO KABUL HE AND HIS COLLEAGUES IMAGINED THE TALIBAN AS UNCIVILIZED MONSTERS THEY CHANGED THEIR VIEW HOWEVER AFTER THEIR INTENSE EXPOSURE TO THE TALIBAN LEADERSHIP AND TO WHAT THEY SAW OF THE COUNTRY ITSELF DESPITE THE DIFFICULTY IN ADAPTING TO THE TALIBAN STYLE BOTH ACADEMICS AND OFFICIALS HERE HAVE COME TO BELIEVE THAT THE TALIBAN ARE PRAGMATIC PEOPLE WHO CAN MAKE DEALS HAVE A PLAN FOR RECONSTRUCTING THE COUNTRY AND HAVE RULED AFGHANISTAN EFFECTIVELY INCREASING ECONOMIC TIES 6 C RELATIONS BETWEEN BEIJING AND KABUL HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE ECONOMIC SPHERE CHINESE COMPANIES HAVE STEPPED UP THEIR ACTIVITIES IN AFGHANISTAN'S TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR HAVING SECURED THE CONTRACT TO UPGRADE AFGHANISTAN'S TELEPHONE SYSTEM CHINESE OFFICIALS ASSERT THAT THIS PROJECT COMPRISES MOST OF THE CONTRACTS GRABBED BY CHINESE COMPANIES IN THEIR COMPETITION WITH OTHER FOREIGN COMPANIES READ THE FACTS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 BEIJIN 02162 02 OF 03 090033Z 7 C BEIJING HAS CONSISTENTLY MAINTAINED THAT ONLY A POLITICAL SOLUTION BASED ON A BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT COALITION NOT MILITARY CONFLICT WILL RESOLVE AFGHANISTAN'S TURMOIL AT THE SAME TIME THE CHINESE POINT TO THE TALIBAN'S CONTROL OF NINETY-PER CENT OF AFGHAN TERRITORY AS A COMPELLING FACT WHICH MUST BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN EVALUATING CURRENT RELATIONS WITH THE TALIBAN AND IN ENVISIONING WHERE THE DOMINANT POWER IN A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN WOULD LIE THE CHINESE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT A FINAL AND DECISIVE TALIBAN VICTORY OVER THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE WOULD NECESSARILY INSURE STABILITY AT THE SAME TIME THEY APPEAR TO AGREE WITH THE TALIBAN THAT THE INTERNECINE SQUABBLES WITHIN THE GROUPS COMPRISING THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE ARE THE CAUSE OF AFGHANISTAN'S CURRENT WOES TO THE CHINESE THE TALIBAN APPEAR THE BEST BET TO LEAD UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 1012014 1 4 D B1 B6 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 AFGHANISTAN OUT OF ITS CURRENT CATASTROPHIC SITUATION MORE ENGAGEMENT WILL LEAD TO MORE UNDERSTANDING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION IO-00 INFO BEIJIN 02162 03 OF 03 PTQ4689 090033Z LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AIT-03 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 INL-00 DODE-0'0 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 AC-01 SA-00 VC-00 NEA-00 ASDS-01 TEDE-00 DCP-01 SNIS-00 INR-00 NSAE-00 NISC-00 VCE-00 OIC-02 DSCC-00 MMP-00 ACE-00 NFAT-00 M-00 SCT-00 SAS-00 008W ------------------CF7014 090033Z 38 R 090031Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4010 INFO UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI AMEMBASSY RIYADH AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU AMCONSUL SHENYANG AMCONSUL SHANGHAI AMCONSUL HONG KONG AIT TAIPEI 6743 AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY SEOUL AMEMBASSY ROME USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI ZEN AMCONSUL CHENGDU AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI AMEMBASSY TASHKENT AMEMBASSY ALMATY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 BEIJIN 02162 03 OF 03 090033Z AMEMBASSY BAKU AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT AMEMBASSY BISHKEK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 BEIJING 002162 E O 12958 DELL 03 08 11 TAGS PREL KISL PIER ETTC UNSC CH AF PK UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07110 2014 SUBJECT CHINA AND THE TALIBAN THE START OF A BEAUTIFUL FRIENDSHIP ASSERTED THAT THE CHINESE 8 C BELIEVED THAT MORE CONTACTS WITH THE TALIBAN WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE TALIBAN'S DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S REQUIREMENTS FOR ENDING THE SANCTIONS AND RE-INTEGRATING AFGHANISTAN INTO THE WORLD COMMUNITY WHOSE DELEGATION MET WITH THE WHOLE TALIBAN LEADERSHIP EXCEPT FOR MULLAH OMAR ASSERTED THAT TALIBAN BEHAVIOR HAD BECOME MORE FLEXIBLE DURING THE PAST YEAR HE CITED A GROWING CONFIDENCE AMONG THE TALIBAN RESULTING FROM THEIR CONTROL OF THE VAST PART OF AFGHAN TERRITORY FOR THIS FLEXIBILITY AT THE SAME TIME HE ASSERTED TALIBAN ANGER AT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR NOT CREDITING NEW POLICIES WHICH LED TO ERADICATION OF THE POPPY CROP LIBERALIZATION OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS AND A WILLINGNESS TO REACH COMPROMISE REGARDING USAMA BIN LADEN BOTH CAUTIONED THAT THE LONGER THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IGNORED THESE NEW REALITIES THE DEEPER THE TALIBAN WOULD DIG IN AND THE MORE VICIOUS WOULD THEIR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 BEIJIN 02162 03 OF 03 131 B6 0900332 REACTION BE CITED THE THREAT TO DESTROY THE BAMIYAN BUDDHAS AS A TALIBAN RESPONSE TO INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION UNDERSTANDING EXTENDS TO ARAB FIGHTERS 9 C THE DEEPER UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN THE CHINESE AND THE TALIBAN APPEARED TO EXTEND TO ARGUMENTS ADVANCED BY THE TALIBAN REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN CAMPS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY IN THEIR DISCUSSIONS WITH CHINESE ACADEMICS AND OFFICIALS THE TALIBAN ARGUED THAT THESE FIGHTERS LARGELY REMNANTS OF THE WAR AGAINST THE SOVIET UNION CONSTITUTE A SKILLED AND PROFESSIONAL CADRE OF SOLDIERS THE TALIBAN CAN CALL ON TO BATTLE NOT ONLY THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE BUT OUTSIDE FORCES ONCE THE COUNTRY WAS UNIFIED THOSE FORCES WOULD NO LONGER BE NEEDED 10 C I ALSO TOLD US THAT THE CHINESE DID NOT BELIEVE THAT A TALIBAN VICTORY WOULD LEAD TO KHOMEINI-LIKE EXPORT OF REVOLUTIONARY IDEALS THE TALIBAN HE ASSERTED WOULD BE TOO BUSY WITH ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION TO CONSTITUTE A THREAT TO THE REGION 1 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No 017542680 Date 07 1012014 J UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 10 2014 CONNENT 11 C WHILE BEIJING WILL CONTINUE TO ARGUE FOR AN EASING OF SANCTIONS AGAINST AFGHANISTAN BECAUSE OF THEIR HUMANITARIAN IMPACT THE CHINESE ARE UNLIKELY TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 BEIJIN 02162 03 OF 03 090033Z FORMALLY RECOGNIZE THE TALIBAN OR TO PUSH FOR THE TALIBAN'S ACCEPTANCE BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AT 'THE SAME TIME BEIJING WOULD QUICKLY JOIN AN INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS THAT BEGAN TO FORM IN FAVOR OF SUCH A PROCESS IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE CHINESE HAVE OVERCOME THEIR INITIAL RELUCTANCE TO DEAL WITH THE TALIBAN AND HAVE BEEN IMPRESSED BY THE TALIBAN PERFORMANCE AND PLEDGES REGARDING THE PROSCRIBING OF XINJIANG SEPARATIST ACTIVITIES FROM AFGHAN TERRITORY WE SUSPECT THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION OF UIGHUR ACTIVITIES IN XINJIANG THAT COULD BE TRACED TO AFGHANISTAN COULD UPSET WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THIS NEW AND RELATIVELY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CHINESE AND THE TALIBAN PRUEHER CONFIDENTIAL END OF DOCUMENT UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-01989 Doc No C17542680 Date 07 1012014