-rsfe ffWF9RN CDS RTASZYUW RHEFAD10716 2631942 9666--RUEALGX ZNY 66666 HEADER R 201924Z SEP 01 FM AFOSI XOQ ANDREWS AFB MD XOQA TO AIG 9301 AIG 9302 RHDJOSI HQ AFOSI ANDREWS AFB MDHCCH INFO RUFTFOA 820 FORCE PROTECTION GROUP MOODY AFB GA S2 RHEFADI HQ AFOSI XOQ ANDREWS AFB MD XOQA RHEFADA AFIAA AMHS BOLLING AFB DC RUEADWD DA WASHINGTON DCHATOICH RUEALGX SAFE WASHINGTON DC RHFPAAA HQ USAFE IOC RAMSTEIN AB GE RHCDAAA HQ AFSOC HURLBURT FLD FLHDI DIIH RUSECOA 6SWS CAPE COD AFS MA BT CONTROLS SECTION 1 OF 3 QQQQ ' • THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE BODY SUBJ KYRGYZSTAN THREAT ASSESSMENT U AIR FORCE OFFICE OF SPECIAL INVESTIGATIONS COUNTERINTELLIGENCE NOTE THREAT ASSESSMENT KYRGYZSTAN U COUNTERINTELLIGENCE NOTE 01-32 8102 19 SEPTEMBER 2001 U U SUMMARY 4S4N FF-THE TERRORIST THREAT LEVEL FOR US MILITARY INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTANI PROVINCES OF BATKEN AND OSH IS SIGNIFICANT AND OFFICIAL US PRESENCE THERE IS OFF-LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF KYRGYZSTAN IS MODERATE THERE IS NO INFORMATION TO INDICATE A SPECIFIC THREAT TO USAF RESOURCES BY ANY TERRORIST OR EXTREMIST GROUPS KYRGYZSTAN HAS A HIGH INCIDENCE OF VIOLENT CRIME AGAINST FOREIGNERS THE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE THREAT FIS TO US INTERESTS IS LOW THE OVERALL INFORMATION OPERATIONS 10 THREAT IN KYRGYZTAN IS ASSESSED AG ORN o page 219 E6RET4@F8ft AS LOW U TERRORISM - -644F THE TERRORISM THREAT TO US MILITARY INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTANI PROVINCES OF BATKEN AND OSH IS SIGNIFICANT AND OFFICIAL US PRESENCE THERE IS OFF-LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF KYRGYZSTAN IS MODERATE THE ISLAMIC MOVEMENT OF UZBEKISTAN IMU WHICH HAS TIES TO USAMA BIN LADIN'S UBL AL-QA1DA NETWORK AND IRAN POSES THE GREATEST THREAT IN COUNTRY AND OPERATES MAINLY IN THE BATKEN AND OSH AREAS CAPABLE OF A WIDE RANGE OF TERRORIST OPERATIONS THE GROUP GENERALLY FOCUSES ATTACKS AGAINST UZBEKISTANI INTERESTS BUT HAS ALSO CONDUCTED ATTACKS IN KYRGYZSTAN THE IMU ESPOUSES ANTI-US SENTIMENT AND HAS OPPORTUNISTICALLY TARGETED US AND OTHER FOREIGN INTERESTS IN COUNTRY THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT IN KYRGYZSTAN IS NEUTRAL DUE THE COUNTRY'S ROUGH TERRAIN POROUS BORDERS AND THE LIMITED CAPABILITIES AND FUNDING OF HOST NATION SECURITY FORCES THE THREAT OF A TERRORIST ATTACK AGAINST US ASSETS IN KYRGYZSTAN IN THE EVENT OF A US MILITARY STRIKE ON AFGHANISTAN IS VERY REALf 617 n f35Z Sax- 1 y c m1 E D 13 zb Sac y 651 -fry THE IMU IS CAPABLE OF LARGE SIMULTANEOUS MULTIPLE CAR BOMBINGS COORDINATED AUTOMATIC GUNFIRE ATTACKS HOSTAGE AND BARRICADE ASSAULTS AND KIDNAPPINGS IMU OPERATIVES HAVE ALSO PROVEN THEMSELVES MORE CAPABLE IN THE USE OFIMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES SMALL ARMS AND NIGHT-VISION DEVICESF E D I3S2b Sec 1 -1 x j POTENTIAL IMU TERRORIST STRIKES AGAINST US INTERESTS WOULD LIKELY COME WITHOUT WARNING JUDGING FROM THE GROUP'S STRINGENT PRE-OPERATIONAL SECURITY P1rFrIRANIAN STATE AGENTS PRIMARILY FROM THE MINISTRY OF INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY MOIS POSE A POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE REMAINDER OF KYRGYZSTAN THE MOIS IS FULLY CAPABLE OF CONDUCTING AND OR SUPPORTING A WIDE RANGE OF TERRORIST ACTIVITY INCLUDING ASSASSINATIONS AND MASS CASUALTY BOMBINGS U IMU LEADER b i S STRONGLY ANTI-AMERICAN AND VIEWS US POLICY AND SECURITY ASSISTANCE AS A MAJOR PROP TO HIS PRIMARY TARGET THE GOVERNMENT OF UZBEKISTAN FOLLOWING THE STATE DEPARTMENTS f-SIGNATIO OF THE IMU AS A TERRORIST ORGANIZATION IN SEP 00 toy b c DECLARED HIS' GROUP A PART OF A JIHAD AGAINST US AND RUSSIAN INTERESTS AND HAS USED THIS JIHAD PREMISE TO RECRUIT NEW MEMBERS THE GROUP HAS ALREADY DEMONSTRATED ITS WILLINGNESS TO EXPLOIT US TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY BY KIDNAPPING OR PLANNING TO KIDNAP US HIKERS IN BATKEN AND OSH PROVINCES RESPECTIVELY - 6414W-THE IMU ALSO HAS TARGETED KYRGYZSTANI INTERESTS t 52L Sec 1 4 Cc fS#NF-4 -_I NOFORN page 220 sFeRET lyffe I 5 2-6 Sec 1 LA c HOWEVER NO INTELLIGENCE CURRENTLY INDICATES IRAN INTENDS TO ATTACK US PERSONNEL OR INTERESTS IN KYRGYZSTAN ESANF- -THE MOST ACTIVE ORGANIZATION IN KYRGYZSTAN RELATED TO THE IMU HAS BEEN THE HIZB AL-TAHRIR ALTERNATELY HEZBUT TAKHRIR WHICH DISSEMINATES PROPAGANDA ADVOCATING THE NON-VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF THE GOVERNMENT AND ITS REPLACEMENT BY AN ISLAMIC STATE HIZB MEMBERS SYMPATHIZE WITH IMU ACTIONS BUT HAVE NOT APPEARED TO TAKE PART IN TERRORIST ACTIVITY IN THE PAST -WWW ETHNIC TURKIC MUSLIM RESIDENTS OF WESTERN CHINA KNOWN AS UIGHURS ARE ALSO ACTIVE IN KYRGYZSTAN MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY ALONG THE CHINESE BORDER THEY HAVE PROVEN CAPABLE OF ASSAULTS INCLUDING ATTACKS AGAINST CHINESE AT BISHKEK'S DOSTUK HOTEL IN MAY 2000 UIGHURS DO NOT THREATEN US INTERESTS IN THE REGION HOWEVER THEY HAVE PARTICIPATED AS INSURGENT FIGHTERS FOR THE IMU -THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL OF KYRGYZSTAN IS NEUTRAL DUE TO THE COUNTRY'S POROUS BORDERS ROUGH TERRAIN 55U Sec 1 L4 I ____ HE COUNTRY'S MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN BORDERS ARE ALSO DIFFICULT TO DEFEND AND THEY PRESENT A SERIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO TRACKING TERRORIST GROUPS IMU LEADERS UBL AND HIS AFFILIATES AND IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE ASSETS ARE WELL AWARE OF y d - J Crblf' 0 1'552- l THESE FACTORS BEGINNING OF SECTION 002 _ L r o I55 21 5ec 1 Li A 1 U POTENTIAL THREAT IN EVENT OF US ATTACK IN AFGHANISTAN 49#NF -IN MID-SEP 01 1 S a 1352-fo Sec I 4 c BELIEVED THE IMU WAS CAPABLE OF ATTACKING US INTERESTS IN COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO A US ACTION AGAINST UBL OR THE TALIBAN IN AFGHANISTAN U _j HAD NO SPECIFIC THREAT INFORMATION BUT BELIEVES THE I POTENTIAL WAS VERY REAL AT LEAST 40 IMU MEMBERS LIVE AND OPERATE UNDER COVER IN KYRGYZSTAN MOST WERE IN THE SOUTH BUT AT LEAST 0 1 C D'w'-w ONE SMALL CELL WAS IN THE BISHKEK Sec G 1ASSESSES THE POTENTIAL THREAT AS TWO-FOLD A POSSIBLE PREPLANNED OPERATIONS AGAINST US TARGETS AS PART OF A LARGER SERIES OF ATTACKS OR B POSSIBLE SPONTANEOUS IMU RETALIATION IN -WFGRN page 221 -9fffff N9FORN RESPONSE TO A US STRIKE IN AFGHANISTAN AT LEAST TWO IMU MEMBERS ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN CONTACT WITH AN AL-QAIDA MEMBER IN PESHAWAR PAKISTAN LINKS BETWEEN THE IMU AND AL-QAIDA HAVE BEEN WELL REPORTED AND THE THREAT AGAINST US INTERESTS IS CREDIBLE AS OF MID-SEP 01 BELIEVED THAT TWO AFGHANS IN BISHKEK WERE PROBABLY IN CONTACT WITH AL-QAIDA ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CURRENT INDICATION THAT THEY ARE PLANNING HOSTILE ACTIONS AGAINST US OR OTHER TARGETS E D FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE THREAT 52c ' U OWk THE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE THREAT FROM THE KYRGYZ INTELLIGENCE SERVICES TO ANY US PRESENCE IN KYRGYZSTAN IS LOW 7 - 135- Sec 1 c I b - C O 13b Sec q d 61 b 135246Sec '-4 c AS DOES THE PRESENCE OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST GROUPS IN SOUTHERN KYRGYSTAN THE MNB POSSESSES THE ABILITY TO OPERATE-EFFECTIVELY AGAINST HIGH PRIORITY TARGETS PIF -THEMNB3HAS PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR COUNTERINTELLIGENCE IN KYRGYZSTAN AND RESPONSIBILITY FOR DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE TERRORISM AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WMD -PROLIFERATION THEY 'SHARE WITH THE MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS MVD RESPONSIBILITY FOR NARCOTICS ORGANIZED CRIME GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION AND ISLAMIC EXTREMISM BASED IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN THE MNB RECENTLY CREATED A UNIFORMED BORDER CONTROL DIVISION WHICH SHARED BORDER SECURITY WITH A SIMILAR DIVISION WITHIN THE KYRGYZ MINISTRY OF DEFENSE MOD 61 1 352 o Sec I Lfc C F 9E@RE page 222 fiEeRf WN ' cU'' ' AAT11cHII RD COUNTRY INTELLIGENCE THREATS 1 1 e D 13- 2 10 5zc 1 H C- BEGINNING OF SECTION 003 C C p 1 f- 0 - Sec 1 y U INFORMATION OPERATIONS 10 THE OVERALL 10 THREAT IN KYRGYZTAN IS ASSESSED AS LOWr b X35 z Sec 1 c_ page 223 -SE6 Ohm N cc U- tom b 13 52_x sue I y I U CRIME U KYRGYZSTAN HAS A HIGH INCIDENCE OF VIOLENT CRIME AGAINST FOREIGNERS THE US EMBASSY IN BISHKEK RECOMMENDS AGAINST THE USE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION OR WALKING AFTER DARK TRAVELERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS IN OR NEAR HOTELS BARS PARKS AND ALL PLACES THAT ATTRACT EXPATRIATES STREET CRIME AGAINST US CITIZENS IS RISING AUTO THEFT MUGGINGS AND PICKPOCKETING ARE COMMON IN CROWDED PLACES SUCH AS MARKETS AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION U HARASSMENT AND EXTORTION BY PEOPLE POSING AS POLICE OFFICERS ARE COMMON GENUINE POLICEMEN MUST SHOW IDENTIFICATION UPON DEMAND TRAVELERS SHOULD NOT VOLUNTARILY AGREE TO ANY REQUESTS TO THOSE WHO DO NOT SHOW OFFICIAL IDENTIFICATION U REFERENCES U THIS PRODUCT IS A SYNTHESIS OF THE MOST CURRENT COLLATERAL TERRORIST THREAT INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM THE MEMBERS OF THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY INCLUDING DIA USCENTCOM US DEPARTMENT OF STATE AFOSI REGION 2 AFOSI DETACHMENTS AND OTHER US AGENCIES U AFOSI POINT OF CONTACT QUESTIONS OR INQUIRIES REGARDING THIS THREAT ASSESSMENT MAY BE ADDRESSED TO HQ AFOSI XOQA AT DSN STU III U AFOSI CI NOTES AND THREAT ASSESSMENTS ARE AVAILABLE ON INTELINK-SCI AND SIPRNET VIA THE AFOSI HOME PAGES AT WWW AFOSI IC GOV uefs page 224 SE6RE F NGFORN a AND WWW AFOSI AF SMIL MIL CLASSIFIED BY AFR 205-6 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION REGULATION FOR THE AIR FORCE COUNTERINTELLIGENCE PROGRAM REASON 1 5 B C D DECLASSIFY ON X1 AND X6 DERIVED FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES PLEASE SEND YOUR FEEDBACK COMMENTS OR SUGGESTIONS TO T HQ AFOSI XOQA b tD i DECLASSIFY ON X1 X5 X6 SOURCES FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES BT ADMIN #0718 NNNN page 225