I b 3 10 USC 424 b 3 50 USC 3024 i DTG 271J 07Z JUN 13 FR b 3 10 USC 424 FM uWASHINGTON DQ CONTROLS 01 % 1' SECTION 1 OF 3 QQQQ DOCNO b 3 10 USC 424 THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE BODY DATE OF PUBLICATION 271107Z JUN 13 ---------------------------------------------------------------DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE INFORMATION REPORT NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE ---------------------------------------------------------------COUNTRY OR N N TATE E ITY U PAKISTAN PAK SUBJECT U b 3 10 USC 424 ATMOSPHERICS IN PAKISTAN FOLLOWING MAY 2013 Elections DATE OF INFORMATION U 15 May 2012 - 4 Jun 2013 CUTOFF U 4 Jun 2013 SUMMARY U SEE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TEXT PARAGRAPH 1 BELOW b 1 1 4 c b 3 10 USC 4Z WARNING U THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE REPORT CLASSIFIED SECRET NOFORN XECUTIVE SUMMARY Following the May ---TEXT 1_ 2013 elections in Pakistan some common themes emerged during several interviews with various people from different demographics in Pakistan Many were concerned with providing power to the nation and load shedding Overall the election results and process were a well-received However there were concerns about the economy and corruption within Pakistani law enforcement agencies b 1 1 4 c page 2 b 1 1 4 c b 1 1 4 c b 3 10 USC 424 - Rolling Blackouts -- Load shedding is the primary complaint but not necessarily a concern The people have learned to cope with it Further power into Islamabad has increased to 12 hours per day in 2 hour increments -- The French colony in F74 has run an underground wire under Bhattai Road into the Jinnah Supermarket NFI to steal a constant source of electricity This power is run throughout the colony via a collection of spliced wires to provide a small amount of power to all of the residences The level of power provided from this is enough to power one lamp and a small appliance i e a fan or small electric stove it will not power all of the lights in a house or large appliances i e refrigerators or A C - Priced Out of the Market The main concern among this group was the rising cost of land and home prices in Islamabad This trend is driving many of the poor out of Islamabad and into Rawalpindi where more reasonably priced housing is available This is an issue for those who work in Islamabad in domestic staff jobs or in embassies because of the distance required to travel and a lack of reliable public transportation - Reaction to the Elections of May 2013 Overall there was a positive view of the elections None said they were overly concerned about the outcome because they felt that none of the potential candidates would be able to really solve all of the problems that they are facing This was not a common topic of conversation in this group and was only addressed when the source asked about the elections However when asked they were very proud of the fact that Pakistan had conducted successful elections and that they were able to vote There was no consensus among the lower class Christians on a candidate or party Some voted for the Pakistan page 3 Peoples Party PPP because they viewed them as having a history of concern for Christians and minorities Others voted for Pakistan Tareek-e Insaaf PTI because they were convinced by his rhetoric and remembered his cricket exploits Finally there were some who voted for Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz PML-N because they felt that Nawaz Sharif 's previous experience as Prime Minister would make him successful in overcoming some of the challenges i e power shortages that are facing the country - Visa Trouble Many feel that visa requests for Christians are discriminated against by Muslim foreign service nationals FSN in the American Embassy b 1 1 4 c b 3 10 USC 424 over the course of two days to discuss a variety of topics related to education society and the region Their comments-- The election process went well and had positive results There was a large turnout and relative lack of violence It was a noticeable improvement over the 2008 elections There was some vote rigging in the elections as expected but at a relatively small level PTI is seen as the voice of the poor and the rural communities However its leader Imran Khan is immature both politically and personally - PML-N's Nawaz Sharif s reconciliation efforts with India are important but less important to the Pakistani people than fixing the economy and electricity shortages He needs to understand that India has changed since the 90's His other efforts are also likely to fail since PML-N and the other political parties have not provided a good layout for what they plan to do There is very little hope for the politician's potential to deliver This will lead to disinterest in Khan and PML-N from the population - Pakistan does a poor job of presenting itself and telling its story abroad The Indians do a much better job and the resulting world view of each is an example of why this is important - The gap between lower middle and upper class is growing in Pakistan It is not a crisis yet but could be in the next several years One issue is that Pakistan is a collection of different types of people who overall are less ambitious in making the country better - The university is expanding to other disciplines It started with natural sciences but the social sciences are growing Both the Bachelor's and Master's programs are in English This is a challenge page 4 Illil filir to some students who come from rural areas and are first exposed to English as the medium of education - Student segregation during social settings is driven by the girls The boys still want female companionship This segregation is a new development in the last ten years but applies only to public areas not within the classrooms or common areas Students including girls are still interested and active in dating with girls wearing hijab most interested - Students are interested in more opportunities for social activities to include concerts cultural displays and other events b 3 10 USC 424 Pakistan Army Officer b 1 1 4 c 5 b 1 1 4 c ISPR stated the following continents and concerns - The PAK Army is irritated with the judiciary for the Pervez Musharraf investigation This is not because of any love lost for Musharraf but because they feel the judiciary set other issues aside to focus on targeting the Army NFI - Similarly the Army is unhappy with Mian Nawaz Sharif for making the Kargil investigation an initial priority Army leadership feels like it is a personal vendetta against Musharraf and the Army and the main concern is it will dig up events from the past that may negatively affect the careers of currently serving officers The aim of the operation was not to go to war with India but the Kargil Operation was a tactical operation with unfortunate strategic effects - In general the Army has a low opinion of Nawaz's intelligence b 1 b 3 10 USC 424 1 4 c atmospherics in Pakistan with aspecific focus on Balochistan b 1 1 4 c page 5 b 1 1 4 c - Girls who attended the women's university in Quetta are now pursuing PhDs in Islamabad or are working professionally This is a positive step and shows that the education is being put to use b 1 1-4 e There was some rigging of the hallo#s but not enough to affect the outcome of the elections b 1 1 4 c b 3 10 USC 424 J b 1 1 4 c atmospherics in Pakistan specifically the Federally Administered Tribal Areas FATA b 1 1 4 c 1 - All communities in Pakistan are suppressed This includes minority religions different ethnicities in certain areas and tribal communities overall - The rhetoric from PTI is one of appeasement with the militants in anticipation of their victory in KPk Further PTI feels with the 2014 ISAF the party will need to appease the militants in order to be able to effectively deal with the security situation in the Province PTI's anti-American rhetoric is simply for political survival not based in any ideology - Militant morale in the FATA is high because they perceive they are winning and they can last longer than both ISAF in Afghanistan and the PAKMIL deployments - The attacks on Polio workers especially the females are a stark departure from tribal norms The thought of shooting a female except in the case of honor killings would never have occurred before Khan was unsure if this is a degradation of tribal values or if it is outsiders who are doing the attacks - Parents are not aware that their kids who are sent to madrassas are actually sent to training camps They drop the kids for an education since they cannot afford to take care of them or educate them and come to pick them up 6-7 years later There is also a great deal of physical and sexual abuse that occurs in the madrassas - The population in the tribal areas and in Balochistan often resist the construction of roads because they feel it is an indicator the government wishes to exploit their land and resources vice page 6 provide needed modernization to the community - The normal peaceful residents of the tribal areas are afraid to resist the militants and extremists because they are threatened It is easier to keep to yourself and not resist to protect your family - The mullahs are spies for the insurgents They use their position in the mosque to gain information on the population to include financial information The information is then passed to the militants to be used for extortion purposes in funding the insurgency People in the tribal areas recognize this and have separated mullahs from religion there has also been a reduction in attendance at madrassas - Drones do cause collateral damage and fear but in reality there is more collateral damage caused by the militants and PAKMIL F-16s b 1 1 4 c b 1 1 4 c b 1 1 4 c Despite rigging in the elections the results were likely accurate - PML-N will survive by compromising with the establishment The result of PML-N at the federal level and PTI in Peshawar is a good combination PTI will likely be successful in KPk Chinese-support-toPakistan They have not done any b 1 1 4- c - development anywhere in Pakistan The nation does provide interest-free loans and are good for strategic deals but not development This makes the Chinese good for the federal government but not for the people - The Pakistan Army sends officers to graduate school specifically the University of Peshawar b 1 JA c b 3 10 USC 424 b 1 1 4 c 1 atmospherics in Pakistan with a specific focus on law enforcement and security - FIA has had 12 Director Generals DG in the 5 year term for the PPP This prevented any continuity or establishment of systems Quality leadership was transferred for those who refused to support corruption of senior government leaders As an example the Minister of Interior Rehman Malik asked the DG FIA to help a friend with a page 7 0 Guff Oslo Last page contains admisitrative redactions and is redacted in full IAW B3 exemption statue 10 USC 424 Page not not included problem but the DG refused stating that the Supreme Court was watching too closely The DG was transferred a few days after that discussion - Police investigators who remain true to their convictions are limited in ability to advance and may also place their lives in danger b 1 1 4 c b 3 10 USC 424 WARNING U THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE REPORT CLASSIFIED ° Q1u- hTQrnn-Kr DISSEMINATIONADMIN ' ePORM KeR page 8