SECRET n a Case Number S199900030 01 PAGE SANTIA 01 07058 OF 04 291143Z ACTION ARA-00 LOG-00 NSCE-00 INRE-00 INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 SP-02 0 291115Z SEP 88 INR-10 SS-OO L-03 DS-01 SSO-OO C-01 CIAE-00 TRSE-00 P-02 ------------------152131 FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO AMEMBASSY ASUNCION AMEMBASSY BRASILIA AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 8379 SVC-00 029 W 291208Z 44 Release State Excise Declassif'y In Part Exemption s T SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTIAGO DECL DODE-00 PM-10 Chile Project wSI99900050 U S Department of USCINCSO QUARRY HEIGHTS E O 12356 EB-00 D eny tn Full 07058 OADR PGQV PREL CI SUBJECT THE CHILEAN PLEBISCITE THE OUTCOME AND U RESPONSE TAGS 1 2 S — SOME THOUGHTS ON ENTIRE TEXT SUMMARY CHILEAN ELECTION PROCEDURES HAVE HIGH LEVEL OF ACCEPTANCE BY THE OPPOSITION AND EMBASSY EXPECTS VOTE COUNT TO BE SUFFICIENTLY FRAUD FREE SO AS NOT TO ALTER RESULTS UNLESS THEY ARE EXTREMELY CLOSE SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS THE ONE THING WHICH COULD STILL EMBASSY BELIEVES MOST CHANGE VOTER ATTITUDES LIKELY RESULT IS A MODEST' NO VICTORY SECOND MOST LIKELY A HEAVY NO WIN AND THIRD A NARROW PINOCHET WIN WE EXPECT ARMED FORCES TO RESPECT THE RESULTS WHATEVER THE OUTCOME AND TO BE FULLY WON PAGE 02 SANTIA 07058 01 OF 04 291143Z n a - SECRET '- Page 1 'PECRFT' '' Case Number Page j 2 S199900030 POLITICAL VIOLENCE WHICH ENGENDER AFTER THE RESULTS ARE COMMUNISTS KNOWN EMBASSY IS ORGANIZING TO PROVIDE WASHINGTON MOST COMPLETE AND TIMELY INFORMATION POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF HANDLING MAY EMBASSY IS PROVIDING SEPTEL SUGGESTED TEXTS OF STATEMENTS FOR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS ON PLEBISCITE RESULTS BY ONE OF THESE SCENARIOS IS THE AUTO-GQLPE — PINOCHET ALERTING THE PLEBISCITE PROCESS THE WEIGHT OF IN THAT HE WILL HAVE TO OPINION IS THE SIDE DEFEAT HIM FRAMEWORK ACCEPT A HANDED IN THE OF HIS VERY OWN CONSTITUTION BUT THE UNDERSTOOD WORRY IS THAT PINQCHET IS CAPABLE OF BEING EXPLOSIVE ENOUGH SO HE WOULD RATHER SMASH SCHEME THAN LOSE IN ANY CASE THIS IS A THAT COULD BE RULED OUT END SUMMARY 3 HIS OWN POSSIBILITY IN THE FINAL DAYS OF THE CAMPAIGN AT THIS STAGE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE DRAMATIC EVENTS WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME NOW THAT PINOCHET HAS BELATEDLY RELEASED HIS PROPOSED GOVERNMENT PROGRAM FOR THE 1989-1997 TERM ANY FURTHER GOC GESTURES ON THE EVE THE VOTE WILL BE PERCEIVED AS CYNICAL MANUEVERS AND COULD EVEN BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE RUMORS THAT TWO FURTHER STEPS ARE UNDER CQNSIDERATIQN IN A LAST-MINUTE EFFORT TO SWAY UNDECIDED VOTERS AN AMNESTY OR PARDON FOR THE DOZENS OF JOURNALISTS WHO FACE CRIMINAL CHARGES AND THE TWO LABOR LEADERS SUBJECT TO INTERNAL EXILE AND A PUBLIC PROMISE WE ARE NOW PLEBISCITE HRRK PAGE 03 BY PINOCHET SANTIA 07058 01 OF 04 TO RETIRE FROM THE ARMY IF 291143Z HE WINS 4 'STICKING TO HIS STRONG SUIT PINOCHET IS ON HIS RECORD OF ACHIEVEMENTS ESPECIALLY IN THE ECONOMIC FIELD PROMISING STABILITY AND MORE OF THE SAME THE PRESIDENT SEEMS TO HAVE PRETTY MUCH ABANDONED EFFORTS TO STANDING Page 2 Page SECRET Case Number CHANGE HIS IMAGE AND IS FOLLOWING 3 S1999b0030 ADVISORS' -- SI COUNSEL TO AVOID PUBLIC EXPOSURE THE CAMPAIGN HAS APPARENTLY ACCEPTED THAT HIS PERSONA IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN THE ELECTORAL EFFORT BECAUSE OF THEIR SUCCESS 1N THE TELEVISION WARS AND LARGE TURNOUTS FOR THEIR RALLIES THE NO CAMPAIGN STRONGLY FEELS THAT THEY HAVE THE MOMENTUM WHICH WILL PUT THEM OVER THE TOP PERHAPS IN A BIG WAY THEY HAVE ORCHESTRATED EVENTS TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM THROUGH OCTOBER 2 THE LAST DAY ON WHICH CAMPAIGNING IS PERMITTED POLITICAL VIOLENCE 5 THE ONE THING WHICH 0 WHICH WOULD SERVE TO DISCREDIT THE NOTE BY PAGE 01 OC T 0 OMISSION IN SANTIA 07058 PARA 5 02 OF 04 A CORRECTION WILL FOLLOW 291144Z Page 3 Page SECRET 4 S19990'0030 Case Numb'er ACTION ARA-00 INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 LOG-00 NSCE-00 C-01 SP-02 SS-00 L-03 P-02 INR —1 0 SSO-OO DS-01 0 291115Z SEP 88 FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO AMEMBASSY ASUNCION AMEMBASSY BRASILIA AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO USCINCSO QUARRY HEIGHTS DECL EB-00 DODE-00 PM-10 INRE-00 029 W 152147 291208Z 44 8380 07058 S E C R E T SECTION 02 OF 04 SANTIAGO E O 12356 CIAE-00 TRSE-00 OADR PGOV PREL CI SUBJECT THE CHILEAN TAGS OPPOSITION PLEBISCITE EMBASSY CANNOT SOME THOUGHTS DISCOUNT ON THE GOVERNMENT PROVOKED VIOLENCE IF ELEMENTS WITHIN THE GOC PERCEIVE THAT THE PROSPECT WE DO NOT OF DEFEAT AT THE POLLS IS CERTAIN HOWEVER HAVE SUFFICIENT INTELLIGENCE TO CONVINCE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR US THAT THIS WILL OCCUR POSSIBILITY OF IN THE CREDIBILITY QF THIS ELECTION IS THE CONVICTION OF DECISION MAKERS IN BOTH CAMPS THEY THEREFORE DO THAT THEY ARE GOING TO WIN NOT APPEAR TO BE SERIOUSLY PLANNING DESPERATION TACTICS ELECTION ATMOSPHERE 986RRZ ' PAGE 6 02 SANTIA WE HAVE THE GOC IS 07058 02 OF 04 BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMITTED TO HOLDING 291144Z CONVINCED THAT AN HONEST Page 4 SECRET'' -'n a 'Case Number S199900030 Page 5 THE ARMED FORCES STRONGLY DESIRE ELECTION LEGITIMACY FOR THE STRUCTURE THEY HAVE IMPOSED ON THE NATION AND BELIEVE THAT THIS STRUCTURE HAS SUFFICIENT SAFEGUARDS WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE PLEBISCITE TO PROTECT THEIR INTERESTS FACED WITH THE REALITY OF A MASSIVE FOREIGN PRESENCE THE GOC ATTITUDE TOWARD FOREIGN VISITORS AND THE PRESS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSPITABLE THE CHECKS AND BALANCES IN THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM ARE NOT FOOLPROOF BUT THEY ARE CERTAINLY AS GOOD AND BETTER THAN COULD HAVE BEEN EXPECTED MORE IMPORTANT THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM IS WIDELY ACCEPTED IN BOTH CAMPS AS FAIR THIS IS NOT AN ENVIRONMENT AT AND EQUITABLE ALL PROPITIOUS FOR PINOCHET TO OVERTURN THE RESULTS IF THE RETURNS GO AGAINST HIM IN TURN THE NO CAMPAIGN HAS CAREFULLY AVOIDED OR THREATENING THE ARMED FORCES THE INDICATORS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIR AND HONEST VOTE COUNT THAT DOES NOT EXCLUDE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT IN SOME VOTING PLACES DOUBTFUL BALLOTS MAY BE COUNTED IN THE GOVERNMENT'S FAVOR OVER THE PROTEST OF OPPOSITION POLLWATCHERS OR THAT THERE WILL BE CASES IN WHICH VOTERS ARE OPENLY INTIMIDATED OR PREVENTED FROM VOTING BUT UNLESS THE ELECTION IS EXTREMELY CLOSE WE DO NOT SEE THAT KIND QF THING BEING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE OUTCOME ANTAGONIZING ALL IN ALL PAGE 03 SANTIA 07058 02 OF 04 291144Z SECENARIOS 7 IF FRAUD THE PLEBISCITE IS AS WE EXPECT LARGELY FREE EMBASSY BELIEVES THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS IN ORDER OF POSSIBILITY ARE 1 A rrNOr' VICTORY WITH A MODEST 3 7 PERCENT MARGIN SIZEABLE NO VICTORY 7-12 PERCENT AND A 2 SI VICTORY WITH A NARROW MARGIN A 3 1-3 PERCENT TWQ WEEKS AGQ CERTAINLY TWO n a SECRET „' „it r Page 5 hajj -@SECRET e a Case Number S199900030 THESE BUT THE DASHING OF MANY HOPES THAT WAS IMPLICIT IN THE NOMINATION OF PINOCHET RATHER THAN A CIVILIAN THE FAILURE OF THE YES TO HOLD A SINGLE SUCCESSFUL MASS RALLY THE ADMISSION OF LIABILITY INVOLVED IN THE DISAPPEARANCE OF PINOCHET FROM THE AIRWAVES THE DRAMATIC IMPACT OF NO PROPAGANDA ON TELEVISION FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 15 YEARS AND ABOVE ALL THE OPINION POLL RESULTS IN SEPTEMBER CONFIRMING THE IMPACT AND SIGNIFICANTLY WIDENING THE MARGIN OF THE NO OVER THE YES ALL LEAD US TO PREDICT A NO AGO MONTHS WE WOULD PROBABILITIES IN A HAVE ARRANGED DIFFERENT ORDER VICTORY NNNN PAGE 01 SANTIA 07058 03 OF 04 2911442 ACTION ARA-00 INFO LOG-00 ADS-00 INR-10 SS-OO CIAE-00 n a - SECRET- EB-00 DODE-00 j f SECRET' '' n a' ' ' Case Number NSCE-00 SP-02 NSAE-00 C-01 L-03 P-02 SSO-OO DS-01 7 Page 7 S199900030 TRSE-00 029 PM-10 INRE-00 W --152161 291209Z 44 0 291115Z SEP 88 FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO AMEMBASSY ASUNCION AMEMBASSY BRASILIA AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO USCINCSO QUARRY HEIGHTS Page 8381 SECTION 03 OF 04 SANTIAGO 07058 E O 12356 DECL OADR TAGS PGOV PREL CI SUBJECT 8 THE CHILEAN PLEBISCITE SOME THOUGHTS ON DO WE THINK A MODEST NO VICTORY THAN A LANDSLIDE7 PRINCIPALLY BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL A SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF WHY MORE THEN LIKELY PEOPLE — 30 IN THE LATEST CERC POLL — WHO OR UNWILLING TO STATE THEIR PREFERENCE ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY AS CERC ARGUES THAT THIS GROUP WILL DIVIDE SIMILARLY TO THE 70 PERCENT WHO HAVE MADE UP THEIR MINDS — THERE IS NO DEMOGRAPHIC REASON TO INDICATE OTHERWISE — NEVERTHELESS SUCH A LARGE NUMBER OF APPARENTLY SHIFTABLE VOTERS INCLINES US TQ CAUTION THE KEY ON ELECTION NIGHT WILL BE THE METROPOLITAN REGION AND ITS NEIGHBOR THE FIFTH WHICH TOGETHER HAVE HALF OF ALL THE VOTERS PERCENT ARE EITHER UNDECIDED S PAGE IF 02 SANTIA 07058 03 OF 04 291144Z NO BY 60 PERCENT OR BETTER WE DO NOT SEE HOW PINOCHET CAN POSSIBLY OVERCOME THAT LEAD NO MATTER HOW WELL HE DOES IN THE OTHER ELEVEN REGIONS BY THE SAME TOKEN IF HE DOES MUCH BETTER THAN 40 PERCENT IN THE MAJOR URBAN CENTERS THE NO IS IN TROUBLE THEY GO FOR THE Page Case Number 8 S199900030 EMBASSY REPORTING 9 EMBASSY WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING PLEBISCITE RESULTS AND PROVIDING DEPARTMENT FREQUENT REPORTS PERIODIC SITREPS ON SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE SENT ON PLEBISCITE DAY OUTSIDE SANTIAGO EMBASSY REPORTING OFFICERS WILL BE STATIONED IN THREE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS CONCEPCION VALPARAISO VINA DEL MAR AND ANTOFAGASTA BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 30 THROUGH OCTOBER 6 WE ARE PARTICULARLY IHANKFUL FOR DEPARTMENT S SUPPORT AND EMBASSIES BRASILIA AND BUENOS AIRES' COOPERATION IN PROVIDING US ADDITIONAL TDY SUPPORT IN ADDITION TO THE GOC WE WILL BE IN TOUCH WITH ALL MAJOR POLITICAL GROUPS THE CHURCH AND INDEPENDENT VOTE MONITORING ORGANIZATIONS USING ALL MISSION RESOURCES EVERY EFFORT WILL BE MADE TO PROVIDE AS COMPLETE INFORMATION AS POSSIBLE WILL MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO INCORPORATE VISITING OBSERVERS' COMMENTS INTO OUR REPORTING WASHINGTON WE 10 CAUTIONARY NOTE THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AS THE VOTE BEGINS TO COME IN WHEN WE WILL BE PRESSURED HERE AND IN WASHINGTON TO BE MOMENTS PAGE 03 SANTIA 07058 03 OF 04 291144Z REACT PRECIPITIOUSLY TO INCOMPLETE INFORMATION PARTIAL RESULTS FROM EITHER THE GOVERNMENT OR THE NO QR CAMPS MAY SHOW A DISPROPORTIONATE EARLY GOC RETURNS LEAD BY ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER IN PARTICULAR ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY FAVORABLE TQ PINOCHET IN THE ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE OF FRAUD WE SHOULD URGE RESTRAINT AND CAUTION TO ALL CONCERNED TO BE PATIENT AND AWAIT FURTHER VOTING RESULTS TO BALANCE OUT EARLY RETURNS SI VIOLENCE Page 8 ' SEC T- ' ' „'„Z 'i nba Case Number S199900030 ll THE COMMUNISTS APPEAR TO BE KEEPING THEIR COMMITMENT TO AVOID VIOLENCE PRIOR TO THE PLEBISCITE ALTHOUGH THEY ARE GIVING THE GOC SPLENDID AMMUNITION THROUGH ONE INFLAMMATORY PAGE 01 ACTION INFO SANTIA 07058 04 OF 04 291144Z ARA-00 LOG-00 NSCE-00 SP-02 ADS-00 NSAE-00 C-01 SS-00 L-03 P-02 INR- 10 SSO-OO DS-01 CIAE-00 TRSE-00 ' DODE-00 PM-10 INRE-00 W 152165 291209Z 44 nba„ 029 EB-00 l SE e'e lP '„ SECRPT i Page 10 4 f S199900030 Case Numbers 0 291115Z SEP 88 FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO AMEMBASSY ASUNCION AMEMBASSY BRASILIA AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 8382 USCINCSO QUARRY HEIGHTS 07058 S E C R E T SECTION 04 OF 04 SANTIAGO E O 12356 DECL OADR PGOV PREL CI SUBJECT THE CHILEAN TAGS PLEBISCITE SOME THOUGHTS ON STATEMENT AFTER ANOTHER WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMMUNISTS WILL SEEK TO IMPEDE THE PROCESS OR TERRORIZE VOTERS NOR DO WE HAVE ANY INDICATION OF GOC-GENERATED VIOLENCE FOR WHICH THE OPPOSITION WOULD BE BLAMED ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY IF THE MOOD IN LA MONEDA GROWS DESPERATE GIVEN THE STAKES 'THE CAMPAIGN SO FAR HAS BEEN REMARKABLY NON-VIOLENT AND ON BALANCE WE THINK IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH ELECTION DAY 12 THE NIGHT OF THE PLEBISCITE AND THE FOLLOWING DAY COULD BE ANOTHER MATTER PAGE 02 SANTIA 07058 04 OF 04 291144Z REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME WHETHER TO DEMONSTRATE THEIR STRENGTH BY CELEBRATING OR THEIR DEFIANCE IN DEFEAT THE EXTREME LEFT IS LIKELY TO TAKE TO THE STREETS DEATHS ARE A ROUTINE FEATURE OF SANTIAGO'S DEMONSTRATION DAYS —— THERE WERE THREE ON AUGUST 30 —— AND THERE MAY WELL BE MORE BUT WE BELIEVE THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION WHEN THEY SAY THEY WILL MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO KEEP THEIR FORCES UNDER CONTROL AND IT HAS BEEN DEMONSTRATED n Page 10 SECRgT- n' a Case Number '-„ i f i t Page 11 S199900030 TIME AND AGAIN THAT THE COMMUNISTS BY THEMSELVES DO NOT HAVE THE NUMBERS TO THREATEN STABILITY THE ARMED FORCES QF COURSE ARE FULLY PREPARED AND DETERMINED TO MAINTAIN ORDER AND WE BELIEVE THEY WILL WITH CASUALTIES THE AUTO-GOLPE VERY FEW CHILEANS ATTEMPT TO PREDICT WITH ANY CONFIDENCE HOW PINOCHET WILL REACT TO DEFEAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE HIM ACCEPTING IT WITH GRACE BUT GIVEN THE GOVERNMENT'S AND THE ARMED FORCES' VERY STRONG COMMITMENT OF PRESTIGE TO IMPLEMENTING THE CONSTITUTION AND HOLDING A CLEAN PLEBISCITE WE THINK THE CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT HE WILL ACCEPT THE RESULT RESHUFFLE HIS ADVISERS AND BEGIN PLOTTING HOW TO OBTAIN MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE FROM HIS REMAINING 17 MONTHS IN OFFICE MANIPULATION OF THE RULES OF THE GAME FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL AND CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS ENSURING A MAJOR ROLE FOR THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL CONTROLLING APPOINTMENTS TO THE SENATE AND RETAINING COMMAND OF THE ARMY EVEN AFTER 13 PAGE 03 SANTIA 07058 04 QF 04 291144Z LEAVING THE PRESIDENCY ARE JUST A FEW OF THE CARDS STILL HAVE LEFT TO PLAY BUT HOWEVER IT CANNOT MUCH THE ODDS ARE AGAINST AN AUTO-GOLPE BE RULED OUT AND WE MUST BE PREPARED TO REACT TO IT AND SWIFTLY WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE IT MIGHT BE REVERSED HE WILL U S REACTION 14 WHILE AVOIDING PREMATURE CONCLUSIONS WE SHOULD BE PREPARED BY THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 6 QR 7 TO ISSUE A STATEMENT IF ALL GOES WELL WE SHOULD CONGRATULATE THE CHILEAN PEOPLE ON A EACEFUL ELECTION AND PLEDGE OUR SUPPORT FOR n a Page 11 V i Qga' ' Case Number S199900030 i Page 12 ' PROGRESS TOWARD DEMOCRACY OUR WILL POTENTIALLY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT REACTION FACTOR IN GUIDING INTERNATIONAL OPINION AND WE SHOULD SUSPEND JUDGEMENT UNTIL WE ARE VERY SURE OF OUR FACTS AN EVEN-HANDED APPROACH VIOLENCE WHICH REJECTS AND ENCOURAGES PARTICIPATION BY ALL POLITICAL GROUPS CAN BE A USEFUL CONTRIBUTION TO HELPING THIS TORTURED CONTINUED SOCIETY HEAL ITS POLTIICAL WOUNDS AND STRENGTHEN THE CONSENSUS OF SUPPORT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS BY SEPTEL EMBASSY IS PROVIDING SUGGESTED TEXTS OF U STATEMENT FOR THREE CONTINGENCIES' 1 S NO VICTORY 2 SI VICTORY AND 3 SEIZURE OF POWER BARNES Page 12